Premier League Picks Matchday 20 | EPL Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

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The top four European leagues covered weekly. All matches previewed by the best betting experts. Predictions and match analysis hosted by ex-Premier-League soccer player, Gordon “Flash” Watson. Subscribe, hit that bell button, and never miss a show. BetUS, where the game begins.

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash, and happy holidays. It’s the Premier League. It’s matchday 20, and we’re full of Christmas. Turkey, beef, pork, chicken, nut roast, if you’re a vegetarian, but we are America’s favorite sportsbook, and we’d like to invite you to subscribe and get us close to 4,000. We absolutely ran past 3,000. More importantly at the moment is to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you will never miss any content again, because we will notify you, and if we notify you, that means you’ll know if there’s a difference in times, or if there’s a difference in days, like today.

Flash:

We’re having matchday 20, but on Thursday, we’ve got Premier League and I believe we’ve got La Liga as well, so make sure you do not miss out. I am joined or gracefully with his presence for us today is award-winning owner of We Love Betting, which is Mark O’Haire, and European odds compiler and the master of digging for stats and value, Mark Stinchcombe, but he’ll be known as Stinch, but you should all know that by now. If it is your first time, then please get yourselves in the chat. If you’ve got a lean, because we are going to cover four games, we have leans on other games and we’re more than happy to speak about them as well, but let’s just make sure that we get you winners.

Flash:

We have a quick look at the records, because the records show that we had an up and down week as a team. There you go. Flash, don’t like to talk about it. Stinch and Mark, they just hit a bit of a buffer over the weekend, but listen, I’m sure that they’re… I like their soccer bets this week, as it goes, because one of them is exactly the same as mine, but the total is still +6.83, so you add your little $100 on, you’re 683. Merry Christmas from myself, Mark, and Stinch. Let’s move on. Let’s get rid of that. That’s fish and chip paper. We want to add to that, and by adding to it, I’ll need to speak to my guests. Mark O’Haire, Merry Christmas still. I hope you had a good one. Obviously, it’s the first one with our new addition. Highs and lows so far over the Christmas period?

Mark O’Haire:

High was definitely Christmas Day. It was a lovely day with family. Yeah. Obviously, I’m a big Christmas fan, so I really enjoyed the day. The low was definitely Boxing Day with three from three, in terms of losses for the show for me. It was a pretty hard one to take, really. I think games day went against me in the Southampton West Ham match. The Hammers are really sort of charging to try and get back into the game.

Mark O’Haire:

Then Villa, we talked about off air, really, Tyrone Mings didn’t exactly cover himself in glory. That’s all the handicap fail in the last minute with the penalty as well. Yeah, it was a tough one to take, but you sort of dust yourself down. There’s games coming thick and fast. There’s always a chance to bounce back and get yourself back into winning forms, so hopefully I’ve found a couple here which will do that for me.

Flash:

Yeah. Mark, I’d like to say that there’s that caveat that we have to say is, maybe sometimes you have the little look at the line-up check when the games are coming thick and fast, because no McGinn for Villa. I know you say one man don’t make a team, I know Douglas Luiz played really well, but he is so important to them, ratting, winning, and giving it.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, absolutely, and that’s the issue at the moment. We record a couple of days in advance to allow people the opportunity to enjoy and digest the content and then get forward, but if we were recording it sort of an hour before kickoff when team sheets were announced, I’m sure some of these matches, we may have different views upon.

Mark O’Haire:

It’s difficult, but that’s life. You have to deal with it, and that’s just the rough and the smooth of it, of betting lines, really. You win some, you lose some. Sometimes it will go in your favor and one of the teams you’re opposing will have a big player missing too, so fingers crossed something like that comes our way sometime soon too.

Flash:

Yeah. Stinch, I hope you had a nice Christmas. Obviously, from one loser to another. Let’s get the negativity out the way very early on. But what about… I’ll tell you what I want to speak you about, is Brighton, because Brighton against Brentford, it was, what, just a one-horse race. They really came out of the traps and looked like the old Brighton of old. I’m wondering if we can just get ahead of the books, because they’re still maybe pricing up Brighton as if they’re also-rans, but against mediocre opposition, like they were at the weekend or yesterday, they look really good.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, they did, and I don’t think there’s any coincidence that they look better when they play with a striker. Neal Maupay got a lovely second goal, and thought he played quite well throughout. I think he’s scored his last four Premier League games now. He’s got a high percentage of Brighton’s goals this season, so just based on basic statistics, you can say that he should be playing, but there’s been times this season where Brighton haven’t played with a striker and he’s been on the bench, and finding it kind of confusing why that has been happening.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think going forward, if Maupay plays, then yeah, I think it does make sense to try and get Brighton on side if they’re going to play as they did in that first half yesterday, where they were good on the ball. They didn’t create high-quality chances, but if you’ve got Trossard and Maupay, you don’t need those chances to be high quality, because they are very good finishers. With Tariq Lamptey getting back to full fitness, he’s always a huge threat down that right-hand side, either from right-back or right-wing-back. I thought Lallana had a good game as well. So yeah, you’re right-

Flash:

Holding midfielder, I wrote that down when I was watching, because I’ve not seen him in that role before, getting the ball. I mean, obviously, he’s so confident on the ball, so comfortable that I mean, that’s a nice little position for him, because he’s not got to bomb forward. He’s just got to lend the ball to others and just keep his eyes… The problem I’d have is if he had a bombing midfielder against him, because I don’t think he’s got the legs to track.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I think he’s okay if he’s playing alongside another player, maybe that player can do his sort of running for him, as you mentioned, but there’s some good stats I saw from him yesterday. I think he had three or four successful tackles. He’s 33 now, so maybe it is a bit natural for him to drop deeper, and to be fair, towards the end of his Liverpool career, Jürgen Klopp spoke about the fact he thought he could play as a six, receiving the ball off the defense.

Mark Stinchcombe:

You know how much he loves a Cruyff turn or a little drop of the shoulder. He only has to sort of beat one man and the pitch opens up, and that’s how Brighton want to play. A few times yesterday, Sánchez kicked long to Cucurella, for example, and Brighton were on the attack again. Yeah. If they get Lewis Dunk back, maybe a little bit more solidity in that defense, because I thought Brentford were unlucky not to at least score, especially in the second half then.

Flash:

Oh, yeah.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Then yeah. First win in 12 now, and they’re still in the top half, which is… Yeah. I think it just shows the madness of the Premier League, that they can go that long without winning, but I think Graham Potter spoke about it after the game. I think they have the four fewest losses this season, so it’s probably only Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City that have lost fewer games. Yeah. If you can keep Brighton and the draw on side, then that makes complete sense, and yeah, they’ve got tough game, haven’t they, away at Chelsea this week?

Flash:

Yeah, they have, and that’s what I mean. It’s a tough game for Chelsea as well if Brighton are in that sort of mood. How do you pronounce that left-back’s name for Brighton? Because I don’t want to dismiss or dis Brighton, but he looks like he could be top drawer.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, Cucurella.

Mark O’Haire:

Cucurella.

Flash:

Yeah. Okay.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think he was from Getafe, but I think he might have made his grade at Barcelona, so he’s got a very good pedigree and he’s very highly rated.

Flash:

Yeah, no, he definitely looks like a top six type of defender, because he loves to bomb forward, comfortable on the ball, good awareness, and very, very comfortable. Okay. Look, that’s enough of that. Everyone in the chat. Yeah. Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, wherever you are in the world. Get your picks in, because we’re going to kick off with our first game. Our first game is… We’re going to go to south London. It’s Crystal Palace versus Norwich. Crystal Palace, -160, -1 is at +105. Norwich at +475, but we also have to look at under a goal for Norwich is +125. The draw is at +295. Mark O’Haire, Palace, there’ll be no Zaha. I thought he was very unlucky to be sent off yesterday, but still, we must go against Norwich here.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. To be brutal, I looked at this long, long, and hard. I really wanted to be with Palace in some way or some form, but I do have a few trust issues with Palace. I like to have them on side as a big underdog. I think they can be competitive when they’re kind of against the odds, really, but I think it’s more difficult for me to kind of invest real faith in them when they’re expected to win and expected to win quite comfortably. Obviously, Zaha’s absence is something to bear mind, as you say.

Mark O’Haire:

Their preparation for the Tottenham game wasn’t ideal at all, with the COVID outbreak and the testing that had to be done again, and the Premier League rejecting the postponement request. It was all a bit messy, really, and then Vieira missing the game as well. He’ll be absent again here, and I think that’s one of those unquantifiables, really, where you just can’t measure the impact. I don’t think it can be a positive when the manager isn’t around, but how big an effect will it have on them? I’m not sure. It’s hard to know.

Mark O’Haire:

We know that Zaha certainly has been, through the years, one of the most kind of key men in terms of moving pre-match markets and moving pre-match prices, really, his influence. I don’t think it’s quite as key this season because Palace have improved in all areas, really, under Vieira, so that’s something to bear in mind.

Mark O’Haire:

Look, they had to play with 10 men for an hour at Spurs as well. Failed to have a shot on target, and this game comes, what, 48 hours later, so it’s a quick turnaround. They’ve only won four Premier League games all season, and they’ve only kept four clean sheets as well, surprisingly. Yeah. I mean, there was a few sort of red flags there for Palace, but ultimately, this is about kind of opposing Norwich, I guess, isn’t it, because-

Flash:

Yeah.

Mark O’Haire:

… it’s so frustrating because they looked like they were sort of showing real signs of improvement in those first three games under Dean Smith. Even the 3-0 defeat to Spurs, I thought they were trending in the right direction. Had plenty of possession and territory, and carved out a few opportunities. Couldn’t score. Then they were unjustly beaten by United, but the last two performances against Villa and Arsenal have just been in abject, really. Just completely dominated at home.

Mark O’Haire:

It’s hard to be positive about them. Failed to score in their last four. Scored eight goals all season. Top goal scorer, Teemu Pukki, barely involved against Arsenal. I think Dean Smith said himself, he didn’t see the performance against Arsenal coming. It was flat. It was littered with unforced errors. You don’t want to read too much into just one performance, but we saw it against Aston Villa as well. You just wonder if those players have kind of signed off and resigned for relegation already, which they really shouldn’t be, because there’s definitely an opportunity to get back into the survival race, because the bottom five are wretched down there.

Mark O’Haire:

But yeah, I looked at their away record as well, trying to sort of have any sort of green shoots of hope for Norwich. It looks worse when it probably is because they’ve had to play four of the top five away from home, so half of their away games have come up against the real elite teams. If you exclude those matches, they’ve actually won once, drawn twice, and lost once as well.

Mark O’Haire:

But yeah, I mean, it’s all about Palace. Can Palace kind of cover the handicap or not? Cover the spread? Possibly. I think if I had to get involved here, I’d back Palace, -1/2, -1, so basically, Palace -3/4, where you get paid out a half-stakes win if Palace win by just one goal, a full stakes if they win by two or more. But yeah, ultimately, I decided to leave this one alone because it feels, as I said, those red flags, probably if I did get involved, I’d kind of kick myself if Norwich were able to sort of keep Palace in check.

Flash:

Yeah, it was… Norwich were +115, I believe, Stinch, to not score against an Arsenal side, but the football intelligence of the Norwich boys was what I was questioning. They were showing left-footed players inside onto their strong foot. They were not tracking. They were just saying, “Oh, don’t worry. Someone else will pick him up,” when there’s no one there. Arsenal could have scored 10, but it was just the way that Norwich just sort of rolled over for me. I think Palace are too strong and there’s too much pace throughout this side, and I maybe Benteke comes in, maybe Schlupp comes in, and that they’re going to enjoy playing against Norwich, Stinch.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think, to use one of your sort of phrases here, it’s a line-up check because of the absentees that Palace had just yesterday. They had so many missing, and Mark made the point that they tried to get the game postponed, so I would want to know what that Palace 11 is going to be before I was to pull the trigger. Dean Smith’s come out this morning and already said it’s going to be the same group of Norwich players, so I would be happy to oppose Norwich in some form. They had just four shots against Arsenal, all very low-quality chances. They didn’t have a single shot after the hour.

Mark Stinchcombe:

The final half hour of the game, when obviously, they were continued to be trailing, and you’d think Arsenal might take the foot off the gas, or Arteta begins to take a few players off, so automatically, that sort of says that Norwich should come out a little bit. Didn’t manage a single effort. Yeah, very happy to oppose Norwich, but for me, I need to know what that Palace 11 is going to be, especially without Zaha, just because I think in difficult situations, he’s the guy that they’ll sort of lean on, or there’ll be a player in the Palace team, or a few players, that things are a bit tough.

Mark Stinchcombe:

They might go, “Oh, where’s Zaha? We’ll try and get out to him.” Obviously, he’s not there, and Mark made a very good point that other than Mo Salah, Wilfred Zaha is one of the guys that moves prices for his team massively. If he isn’t available, sometimes the price can move up to half a goal against Palace, and that’s massive when we talk about pre-match pricing, because the prices here suggests Palace are one goal better than Norwich. Without Zaha, based on last season, that would say that Palace, the price is far too short, basically.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But Mark made a good point. Obviously, there’s players like Conor Gallagher, Odsonne Édouard. Benteke’s come back into form, but obviously, no Benteke at all yesterday. As Mark says, it’s very difficult to quantify Patrick Vieira’s absence. So yeah, I would wait for the line-ups, and if Palace have got eight of their, maybe, first-choice 11 players, I mean, bearing in mind, they have been without some of their defenders as well. Jack Butland’s been playing in goal, and I’m not convinced he’s a Premier League goalkeeper. I think he’s quite lucky to be in the Premier League. I know he’s a backup keeper, but yeah, I don’t think he’s quite Premier League quality.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So yeah, I would need to see that Palace team, but I think there’s going to be so many more opportunities the rest of the season when perhaps hopefully the virus has gone with the warmer temperatures, and there’s a little bit more information that we’re sure about and we can lean on. I think there’s just too many question marks this sort of time of year, so if we’re a bit unsure, I think it’s safer not to pull the trigger.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m happy to get Palace on board. They’re -160 just to win the game, but they’re +105 with the free hit. -1, Crystal Palace, at +105 is my selection, so if that just flicks around, because I just see Palace winning, so I’m happy to take them. I don’t mind a push at +105. I just see maybe 2-0, maybe even 3-1 if Norwich do get a lucky goal, and then they think, “Oh my god, there’s something in this game,” and they get hit on the break, because Palace are not a one-man show, and they’re far from it now. I would even go as far as saying, and listen, obviously, we know that Zaha is top class, but sometimes he can take a little bit too much time on the ball. When he’s not there, they shift it a little bit quicker.

Flash:

I want to be with Palace. I want to be with Palace, and at +105, and I wouldn’t put anyone off 2-0. People in the chat. [Josh D. Raps 00:16:06], he’s saying, “Both team to score, no.” Danny Lopez is going for over 1 1/2 goals, team total, Palace. Jonathan Nelson is under 2 1/2, so everybody, get your money on the over. Okay. It’s only because Jonathan Nelson is like a complete and utter Jonah. You know how many joking, JN.

Flash:

Okay, let’s move on to our second game, because this one screams goals. It’s Watford versus West Ham. Watford, +240. West Ham at +115. Surely that is a don’t complicate it, or it would have been about six weeks ago. Now, all of a sudden, it’s all up for grabs. The total is at 2 1/2, but it’s only -120 on the over, so that points us in that direction straight away. The draw at +255, and maybe you could be brave and look at a few team totals. Stinch, I’ll come to you first, because Watford versus West Ham could be anything.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I definitely agree with your… It could be a don’t complicate it job, but West Ham only won one game in their last seven-

Flash:

Yeah, I know. That’s crazy.

Mark Stinchcombe:

… and I think we’re all quite confident that perhaps they were also a don’t complicate it job at home to a Southampton team that were missing some of their players, and they’ve been struggling in recent weeks, but I know all of Southampton’s goals that they scored aren’t really sustainable. One was a shot from outside the area, one was a penalty, and the other was a header from a free kick, but still, it exposed those vulnerabilities West Ham have got without Zouma and Ogbonna in center-back. We saw Craig Dawson get absolutely torn apart by Broha, who’s only sort of 21, I think. First season playing Premier League football. A defender of Dawson’s experience shouldn’t be getting exposed as easily as that.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I think we go from the don’t complicate it in the match odds to we’ll go for a don’t complicate it in the goals, because I think both teams can’t defend here, and both teams have been very good in terms of scoring goals, especially Watford under Ranieri. I think yesterday, the odds were sort of 50/50, both -110 overs and unders, and we’ve seen that now, overs is -120, so we see exactly where the market’s moving. Probably anybody that’s missed that -110, probably best to take that -120 now, in case it goes any more. Under Ranieri, Watford’s games are averaging nearly five a match. He’s had nine games in charge, so I think that’s a pretty decent sample size.

Mark Stinchcombe:

At the end of the day, if we’re backing overs, we only want to see three, so seeing five a game, it’s huge. West Ham, I had a look back over the last sort of spread over seasons, their last 38 games, 25 of their matches have gone over. That’s 66%. We’re talking about odds that are close to 50%. You look at West Ham’s games this season, they are averaging exactly three goals, and looking a little bit deeper in terms of expected goals in their games, it’s at 2.97. Those stats aren’t unlucky, shall we say, that the three goals a game is an average that you can rely on. Yeah. I think fully don’t complicate it. Back the overs, and we don’t care who scores the goals, essentially.

Mark Stinchcombe:

It could be 3-0 West Ham. Could be another one of these mad Watford 4-2s or 5-3s or whatever. Watford have had two weeks off now, two and a half weeks off now, so I think they’ll be very fresh. We’ve still got crowds in the Premier League, so I think the Watford fans will have been disappointed to miss out on having a game on Boxing Day, so I think the atmosphere would be really good. We know what it’s like at Christmas Time. Everyone’s excited for football, so I don’t think there’s anybody out there that’s going to be backing unders-

Flash:

No.

Mark Stinchcombe:

… and if you were, you’d be watching with your hands over your face, wouldn’t you, behind the sofa? So yeah, over 2 1/2 goals.

Flash:

You’re definitely behind the sofa. Definitely. Mark O’Haire, Watford, West Ham. Pluses for Watford are at home, the crowd. Also, energy levels are entitled to be higher than West Ham’s. Little frog in my throat. But with West Ham, it’s almost like… I don’t want to go over the top here, but it’s like a must win, and at +115… I mean, five weeks ago, this would’ve been like -115, -120.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, but there’s a few reasons for it, I think. Where do you start? We’ve talked about just one win in seven. That win came against Chelsea, where Mendy’s errors and a mishit cross kind of contributed to the win. They were punished for being slow and sloppy against Southampton, and only really started in the second half, when Michail Antonio came on. He’s been injured recently. His influence was definitely clear to see against Southampton in that second half, where they did dictate play and looked a lot more dangerous going forward, but just shooting themselves in the foot defensively too often at the moment.

Mark O’Haire:

I was surprised to learn they’ve only kept four clean sheets in the Premier League this season. To make matters worse, and which is what really kind of puts me off that price on West Ham, Declan Rice is now suspended. Picked up a yellow card on Boxing Day. He’s missing. You look at the back four, the first-choice back four. Stinch has talked about Ogbonna and Zouma being absent. Well, Aaron Creswell’s absent as well, so that’s three of their first-choice back four missing. They’re going to be tired compared to Watford, who admittedly might be a little bit slow starting because this is their first Premier League game since the 10th.

Mark O’Haire:

But yeah, I think in terms of absentees, West Ham are really short defensively at the moment. You think where their key strength is, it’s that central midfield. Well, arguably their best player in that position is absent as well. I think this is a great opportunity for Watford to attack West Ham and be on the front foot here and score some goals. Very difficult to be too pro about Watford, though. They’ve lost 11 of 16 games. Stinch has talked about their dreadful record under the Ranieri, as well, but I can’t really say too much more, because he’s kind of picked out all the same stats I was going to talk about, because I’m very much pro-goals.

Flash:

What about +175 for over 1 1/2 goals, Mark?

Mark O’Haire:

For…

Flash:

For Watford.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean-

Flash:

In total, for them to score twice, at +175.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. It’s a big price. It is. It’s a big price. Sarr’s missing, still, which is always a worry, but Dennis has been in such great form since he signed this season. King’s there. They’ve got players who can cause problems, and you look at that West Ham defense in recent weeks, they haven’t looked solid at all. Stinch has talked about Dawson. He’s getting on now, isn’t he? He’s getting bullied. He’s getting found out, and balls in behind him. He’s not quick enough, so there’s definitely an area of weakness there. Defensively from set pieces, they’ve looked pretty porous too, so yeah.

Mark O’Haire:

If I’m Watford and Ranieri, I’m getting my players absolutely geed up for this, and there’s a real opportunity to make a statement here. But West Ham, they’re going to score. Watford haven’t kept a clean sheet or season. West Ham have only failed to score in four games. Watford have actually scored against City, Chelsea, and United, so a West Ham team missing Rice, Zouma, Ogbonna, and Creswell, they should be licking their lips at this. Yeah, I wouldn’t put anyone off that. That +175, it’s a big price.

Flash:

Yeah, and it’s +240, I think we said, for the win. Let’s have a look at the official picks. I definitely agree. I think it’s almost like a free hit, this over 2 1/2 at -120, so cue the 0-0. Yeah. Honestly, at +175 for Watford, wouldn’t put anybody off of maybe a Watford draw no neither. I think this is a game you can really maybe get in-play value as well. Let’s move on to game number three, because it’s almost like a copy and paste. We’re off to Leicester versus Liverpool. Leicester, +600, too big. Liverpool, -255, too short. Under or over 3 1/2 goals. I was tempted here to get involved in that. Draw is at +450. I was tempted to get involved in that.

Flash:

Mark O’Haire, I want to come to you first, because Leicester was our banker over the weekend to just score at -110. I just couldn’t believe it, when they scored five there last time, they ended up scoring three again, and they also highlighted the problems that Man City have in defense, albeit when they’re 4-0 up after 28 minutes. But Liverpool, again, they’ve had problems. We don’t know who’s going to be playing for them, but the one thing we do know is both sets of players at the right end of the pitch here can score goals.

Mark O’Haire:

Yep. I don’t think anyone’s backing unders in this match, but I’ve got fears for Leicester here. I really do. Playing Boxing Day against Man City with a patched up 11, getting trounced, and then 48 hours later, having to face Liverpool, who’ve been rested up or a week now, there’s a significant physical and psychological advantage there for Liverpool who, as far as I’m aware, get Van Dijk and Fabinho back from COVID-related issues, so they’re going to be stronger.

Mark O’Haire:

But I do think there’s a massive rest advantage here for Liverpool, and if Leicester field a defense like they did at the Etihad, I think this could be really grim for Leicester. Now, social media is never a good tool to kind of gauge fans’ views on their team, but if you looked at replies to the Leicester 11 that went up ahead of the Man City match, it wasn’t pretty. Albrighton, Amartey, Vestergaard, Thomas, as a back four. Tielemens and Dewsbury-Hall in center midfield.

Mark O’Haire:

You could bring Ndidi back into the team, but you’ve got no Söyüncü, no Evans, no Pereira, Bertrand, Fofana, and Justin. You’re basically plugging midfielders into defense to try and put something together there. It’s quite concerning, really. To be honest, I think the second-half rally at Man City, I don’t read too much into it, to be honest, how much of that was down to Leicester and how much was it City thinking the game was-

Flash:

Leeds did exactly the same.

Mark O’Haire:

… done and dusted.

Flash:

Leeds did exactly the same when they were five down. Remember, that’s why I went with Leicester to score.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah.

Flash:

That’s why I said it in the last thing, because they are so sloppy. Zinchenko goes walkabout, get done on the break, and the one thing that Leicester will do is they will keep going, and they have got players who can score goals on the break.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, [crosstalk 00:25:40].

Flash:

So I mean, it’s one of those [crosstalk 00:25:42] to score.

Mark O’Haire:

That’s the only positive you can have for Leicester, really, isn’t it?

Flash:

Sorry?

Mark O’Haire:

They a tired team. They’re a tired team. They’ve got no defense whatsoever at the moment. They’ve conceded twice or more in 10 of the last 13 games. Liverpool are going to score twice here. I think that’s almost a guarantee. They’re generating 2.4 expected goals without penalties, which is the highest figure in the Premier League. They’ve created more big chances than anyone else.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve scored two goals or more in every game bar four across all competitions. They’re averaging 3.1 goals away from them in the Premier League. Just remarkable figures, really. Leicester cannot keep Liverpool out. I cannot see that whatsoever, so the only way in which they can kind of get into this game is by playing front-foot football here and scoring goals and trying to outshoot Liverpool.

Flash:

Yeah.

Mark O’Haire:

I’m anticipating an end-to-end game, basketball game, but Liverpool just having too much quality across the park and beating them, but ultimately, in a match that features both team scoring. I thought that the increase on Liverpool, -255 to +175, just for Liverpool to win and both team scoring, was far too big, considering the circumstances and what we’ve seen from Leicester.

Flash:

Yeah, it’s massive. +175 for Liverpool to win and both teams to score. Mitch is saying, “Half-time, full-time, Liverpool, -105.” Be careful there, Mitch, because I can see this being Leicester half-time, Liverpool full-time. That’s something like 475. Stinch, yeah, I don’t see no clean sheets in this game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, Leicester have got quite a good record against Liverpool. Jamie Vardy always seems to score. I mean, they played each other in the League Cup just a week ago now, albeit sort of a Liverpool second string, but it was very strong Leicester team, and Leicester raced into a 3-1 lead. Vardy got two goals. James Maddison scored from long range. Maddison’s in quite good form at the moment. I think he’s scored five goals in his last few games.

Flash:

Yeah.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So yeah, both teams are a big threat. Van Dijk will be a massive return for Liverpool, for sure, but actually, Liverpool V top-half teams this season, they’ve played eight games. In five of them, both teams have scored. So yeah, I think it could be a both teams to score runner. I just tried to be a little bit clever here, because I saw the goal line of 3.5, and I thought, “Yep. Fine. It’s 3.5. We know that’s very high in the Premier League. Don’t really want to try and be clever and back overs. But then I saw both teams to score, an over 2.5, was the similar of the price, so I thought I could be clever and back that.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’m kind of stealing a goal, and I just need to make sure it’s obviously not a win to nil. I’m very confident. Now, mark’s happy to back a Liverpool win with both teams to score. We all know how proficient Leicester games have been for goals. 25 of their last 32 in the Premier League have gone over 2.5. We know they’re not keeping clean sheets. Just four clean sheets in that run. Mark’s mentioned, obviously, their lack of defenders. Kasper Schmeichel’s not having a very good season, in my opinion, in terms of goalkeeping. I think there’s some goalkeeping stats that kind of back that up, as well. Seems more interesting trying to wind the opposition up and argue with the referee than actually do his main job, but he probably doesn’t really care. He knows he’s got a Premier League Titles medal.

Mark Stinchcombe:

71% of Leicester’s games have seen both teams score. As I say, Liverpool, not surprising that 13 of their last 15 had gone over 2.5. So could see a game here where Liverpool run out 2-1 winners, and over 3 1/2 would lose, but are both teams scoring, and over 2.5 would win? I think it’s quite a good bet in what we do think is probably going to be a bit of a one-sided game, but we know how good Leicester are going forward, and we know Liverpool will give you a little bit of space on the break, and Leicester do like to play out on the break. We saw Liverpool away at Spurs a couple of weeks ago. Spurs could have scored two or three, had it not been for Alisson and a bit of poor finishing. Yeah, the question-

Flash:

Good point.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean, if-

Flash:

Good point, Stinch.

Mark Stinchcombe:

If we think the question here for our bets is, are Leicester going to score, then I think that’s quite a good bet to have on our side, if we’re just boiling it down to the fact that we think Liverpool are going to probably score two goals, and then we’re just boiling it down to, will Leicester get a goal themselves? I think the odds there are quite short. I think they might be -200 just for Leicester to score, so if we’re getting nearly evens on Leicester goal, essentially, and then even better, for… I mean, Mark’s bet looks fantastic, doesn’t it, really? Throwing in a Liverpool win, as well. I think we’re all on sort of the same page here. A Liverpool win featuring lots of goals.

Flash:

Yeah. I mean, I don’t need to be saying much more. People are complicating it in the chat, though. They’re going Liverpool over… What? Do we think that they win by two goals? Because -1 up, get them numbers back up, please, because I’m just looking there and thinking that I saw, out of the corner of my eye, Liverpool, -1 1/2 at +100. Are we thinking that they win maybe 3-1 here?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think we probably go back to your first point, Flash, when you said that -255 on Liverpool is a bit short. If we think that’s a bit short, then anything pro-Liverpool handicaps, because they’re correlated, we’ll automatically think it’s a bit short. I think the first two bets are fantastic. Honestly, I think they’re great angles in. You could maybe try and expand it a bit more, but if you’re backing Liverpool, -1 1/2 at +100, I think you’d rather be on Liverpool to win and both team score at nearly twice the price, wouldn’t you?

Flash:

Yeah. I think so. Let’s get back up, then, the official picks on Leicester versus Liverpool, and there’s a great one, too. I’m going to go that way. I’m going to have a guess up. Oh, yes. See? This way. Yes. Yeah, it’s Liverpool and both teams to score at +1… Because it’s a mirrored image, it’s like I’m looking at you and you’re on my left, but then you’re on my right when we look at it the other way around.

Flash:

So it’s Liverpool and both teams to score at +175, which is a great price. Both teams to score, an over for me, at -110, and copy and paste for Stinch. We’re both on the same page. Remember, if that wins only one of the units, or 0.9 of a unit, will go on the individual records, but only one will be added to the team. We’re all over Liverpool, and we’re all over goals. I just have a funny feeling that at some stage, I think, Leicester might be leading, and then maybe an in-play bet there for Liverpool, double chance.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s move on to our final game, because I see this and I’m hoping it’s not a banana skin. It’s the last game. We’re off to West London. It’s Brentford versus Man City. Brentford, +1,200. Man City, -525. No, thank you. Under or over, three goals. First of all, the over three goals, -115, please just pencil that in. The draw, at +575, no, thank you. Team totals, over 2 1/2 at -105. I think we’ve got to be looking at that. Mark O’Haire, Man City. Do they score three, in which case the -105 is there? Then that means the over three goals is there at minus 115, and also, Man City, -2 at -105. We want to be with the away side because they’re scoring four and five a week.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean, the way in which they raced into that lead against Leicester was pretty ominous for the rest of the Premier League. They were so good, and they looked so difficult to stop. I think what’s been quite key, really, in recent weeks is they’re scoring goals early in matches, as well, and once City get ahead, it’s very difficult to reel them in, because they absolutely love kind of controlling games, strangling their opponents, and then the opposition is then forced to kind of chase their way back into games, and that just creates more space on the counterattacks and in transitions, and then City can pick you off, really.

Mark O’Haire:

You look at their last five Premier League games, on four occasions, they’ve scored inside the first eight minutes, which is really quite something, really. They’re starting strongly and putting you on the back foot immediately. They really could and should have put Leicester to the absolute cleaners, really. Even still, still nine primary league wins on the spin. 30 goals scored in that sequence. There’s a possibility that Kyle Walker and Rodri could come back into the fold here, as well, which may makes them even stronger.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve got no serious or long-term injury issues at the moment. It’s looking pretty ominous, really. The one thing that holds me back, really, from any sort of handicaps or backing City or to cover kind of big goal totals at the moment is I think sometimes you need to bear in mind where we are in the season, and we’re mid kind of a really kind of quick run of matches. At the moment, City played Brentford, and then three days later, they go away to an in-form Arsenal team, who maybe back in September would have been an easy free hit, but at the moment, they’re playing really, really well. It’s a potential kind of banana skin for City.

Mark O’Haire:

Are they likely to kind of try and conserve themselves? Are they likely to declare when they take an early lead and try and see the game out? I think that’s something to bear in mind. We’re at that part of this season where it’s more about kind of preservation and pacing yourselves, and just accumulate points any way you can, and kind of probably leave the big wins for later in the season. I don’t know. It’s probably just something I’m overthinking, really, but Brentford [crosstalk 00:34:37].

Flash:

Yeah. You’re overthinking it. They’re in a different league to Arsenal. I’ve got a bet for you here.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. Yeah, they are, but it’s-

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:34:43].

Mark O’Haire:

I just think Brentford have given Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal plenty of headaches at home so far this season. I don’t think they’ve been as bad as the recent run they’ve been on suggests. I think they are capable. I think they were very flat against Brighton, and that’s probably understandable. It was their first Premier League game in 16 days, and they’ve had issues with COVID, et cetera. City will win this game, for sure, but how big? It’s just a game I’m happy to sort of step aside and let you guys kind of sort of pinpoint a best bet in this. I probably am overthinking it, but I just think City right now will probably just try and preserve themselves, and look forward to Arsenal if they get two goals ahead.

Flash:

Okay. Listen to this. I’ve just gone to of the BetUS props. I put up on the top corner, first half. Right, gentlemen. Stinch, before I come to you, I want both of your opinions on these. Man City, -1 at half-time is at +140. Man City to score twice or more in the first half is +190, and over 1 1/2 goals first half is +135. if we get two goals in the first half, is that not something we’ve got be looking at?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, that Man City one sounds really nice, to score over 1 1/2 first-half goals.

Flash:

+190.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, I’ve said before, I don’t really like to have to bet on Man City games because the soccer lines are normally so extensive. You have to take into consideration, as Mark says, fixture congestion and whether they start to bring players off, but he also made a very good point. The fact they’ve been racing into quick leads. It’s not as if I don’t think they go out to control the game and then try and attack the team once they’re tired. They literally attack them from minute one. Yeah. I think I’d much rather take that. What did you say, it’s +190 for them to score twice in the first half?

Flash:

Yeah. +190.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think I’d much rather take that the Man City, -2, at closer to even. It’s where they score two and they win 2-0 or 3-1, you’re only going to get your money back. I think I’d much rather be on that. I think the scary thing from yesterday, the fact they scored six, they did that six without Phil Foden, Gabriel Jesus, and Jack Grealish, who were all on the bench.

Flash:

Oh, well, Jack Grealish hasn’t hardly scored or assisted. He’s just a name on there. He’s just like a dish on the menu that no one picks, you know? [crosstalk 00:37:09].

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think that Man City… I’m going to call it a front five, because the two in central midfield that join away from that holder, they interchange quite well. You’ve got Kevin De Bruyne making sort of underlaps, and then you’ve also got the likes of Cancelo coming from full-back to make an extra winger. I think Grealish is obviously just one small, tiny cog, really, in that whole process. He does demand somebody to mark him, which leave space with other people, I think. I think against Brentford, I said it once at the beginning of the show, very disappointed with them against Brighton, but a little bit of mitigating circumstances.

Mark Stinchcombe:

They were without Ethan Pinnock yesterday, who’s one of the sort of main… It’s not Ethan Pinnock, sorry. Rico Henry, who’s one of their mainstays on the left-hand side of defense. They had to play a completely different left-hand side. They’re without their main goalkeeper, David Raya, and I’ve been very disappointed with the replacement. They’ve got a very disjointed team at the moment, and I don’t think they’re going to get many players back, and if they do get them back, how fit they are.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I would want to be… Obviously, not trying to reinvent the wheel. Of course, we want to get Man City on side, but we all know that the prices are so short, so it’s the best way to go about it. I do quite like that first-half goals, Flash. Maybe a little bit of security with the Man City -1, so if they do go into half-time just 1-0 in front, we’d get our money back. I think when you said that was plus money, as well, so maybe that one’s a little bit safer.

Flash:

Yeah. Basically, what about… I’ll just give you a little recap, because everyone in the chat’s absolutely loving these, as well. As soon as you two turn up, like, obviously, only English people will know this, Churchill the dog. I mean, I’m talking. You’re like this, nodding, going, “Yeah, that’s great.” Basically, we’ve got Man City, -1 in the first half at +140. I quite like the over 1 1/2 goals first half at +135, and also Man City, over 1 1/2 goals in the first half at +190. Is just the over 1 1/2 goals at +135 good enough?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Maybe, but I think we’re kind of envisaging that Brentford… We’re not expecting Brentford to maybe contribute that much to the score. The odds suggest-

Flash:

So you go 190, then, don’t you?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Right.

Flash:

You go 190 or +140.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think the +140 sounds fantastic. You’ve got a little bit of security. I think you could basically say that is that Man City score at least once in the first half. If they score once, I’ve got myself a free hit at +140, and how often are you going to have this season where you can say, “I’ve got Man City on side scoring one goal at +140”? That sounds really good to me.

Flash:

Okay. So maybe we should add that. What do you think, Mark O’Haire?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I agree. I think the first and the last one, the +190 and the +140, were the most appealing.

Flash:

I knew you’d love the +190. You love. That was like, “Ding. That was like having extra potatoes.

Mark O’Haire:

It is, though. If you look at the match odds in terms of the City price, the City handicap, and City, the team total across the 90 minutes, and you compare them to those prices, it’s chalk and cheese, really, what appeals to me [crosstalk 00:40:13] there.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m starting to worry. I’m starting to worry, as if it’s a misprint and I’m making everybody aware, and my odds compilers are going to go absolutely mental. Yeah, because I mean, even over the 90 minutes, I mean, I think we’re looking at Man City to score three goals just basically to get an odds-on price, so if you’re going to get two in the first half at +190, then that’s completely different. Excuse me, while I’m just looking away here, because I just want to give you the actual facts. Over 2 1/2 goals in the game is -130. I’m sure they score three. Surely they score three.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I don’t know about that, but just going back to your original point, just because I’ve noticed this just now, Flash, do you know how many goals Man City have conceded in the first half this season?

Flash:

I can’t remember them conceding in the first half. Maybe three?

Mark Stinchcombe:

One.

Mark O’Haire:

Wow. God.

Flash:

Oh my god.

Mark O’Haire:

Wow.

Flash:

Good luck, Brentford, and everyone steaming to BetUS. It’s festive season. +190 for Man City to score twice, but the +140 is going in as an official bet. I might as well take this one, gents, going to need it to add to my total. So if we have a little look, it’s Man City, -2 over the 90 minutes at -105. I think that’s an absolute free hit, to be fair, but we’re also going with -1, Man City, first half, at +140, and the greedy one with a hairy face says +190 for Man City to score twice. You boys, do you want me to add anything? Do you want me to add them to the officials?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’ll take the Man City -1, +40, first half. Sounds fantastic.

Flash:

There you go. And Mark, 190? They score twice.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, go on. Go on. Why not?

Flash:

Come on then, boys. Listen, the chat are going to be loving this. We’re giving out Christmas gifts, we’re not even wrapping them. Like, “Well, you already saw this, and just take that.” Okay. So that’s the games, the official picks. But remember, we’ve added, so make sure… [Fishing Line Leafy 00:42:14] says, “Yes, and you know what’s on the end of the fish on the line? Big fish.” Okay. I’m going to have a little chance for you to have a little Q&A.

Flash:

The other one I looked at, lads, was Chelsea versus Brighton. I thought Chelsea, -1, win the game, free hit, but then I watched the Brighton performance again. I watched it twice yesterday, and I thought, “They seem to be full of zest.” I know they’re only playing Brentford, but I thought they could cause Chelsea problems, so it might be an in-play. Mark O’Haire, do Brighton get anything out of the game at Stanford Bridge?

Mark O’Haire:

Possibly. I thought Chelsea were much improved, in fairness, at Aston Villa. They looked a bit more-

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:42:54] and Jorginho sitting in there, right?

Mark O’Haire:

Exactly. Once that midfield pivot is back to their best, they do look a different team, and Lukaku coming off the bench. He received quite a lot of criticism in the last couple of months, which I think has been a little bit unfair. He hasn’t scored too regularly, but he has been hit with injuries and illness, as well, so you have to bear that in mind before you sort of put the boot into him, but he looked really good. He looked sharp. He looked dangerous. He looked strong, and I think once you get that kind of spine of the Chelsea team together again, they can be quite dangerous.

Mark O’Haire:

Certainly, when they went behind, I think the character they showed to battle back into a difficult game away at Aston Villa and get the points really will sort of galvanize them and make them believe that they are back into the title race. But yeah, Brighton, they’re always difficult to see off. I think they’re very competitive, very difficult to beat by a couple of goals, too, so I think it’ll be tight. I think it’ll be competitive, but ultimately, I think Chelsea will win the game. Possibly Chelsea to win by exactly one goal. A big price might be something to appeal.

Flash:

Stinch, Brighton just to score, just to score in the game, is -105.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yep. Couldn’t put you off that. We spoke about Chelsea’s deficiencies defensively against Aston Villa. I know Aston Villa’s goal was quite fortuitous, via an own goal, but we spoke about the fact that if Neal Maupay plays, I think Brighton are a completely different team, in terms of actually scoring goals. You’ve got somebody actually in the penalty area, rather than nobody for perhaps Chelsea to worry about marking. Mentioned about Chelsea’s absentees defensively, having to play seemingly a different defense every game to try and manage the schedule of matches.

Mark Stinchcombe:

They’ve got a lot of games coming up. We’ve got the FA Cup coming up soon. Chelsea are going be going away for the Club World Cup. I think they’ve got Liverpool away, as well, in the new year, so I could definitely see Tuchel rotating a little bit more again. Yeah. I think I’d rather be on Brighton to score than Chelsea keeping a clean sheet, so given the fact that the odds are weighted the other way around, then yeah, I couldn’t couldn’t put anybody off. Maybe if you want to go for a bigger price, you could go Chelsea to win and both teams to score.

Flash:

Yeah, or the -105 just for Brighton to score, and maybe watch Chelsea win by five. The other game, Southampton versus Spurs. Southampton, +255. Spurs at +105. The draw at +260, but the one that caught my eye, Stinch, and obviously, I don’t want to labor these points, because the games we’ve not got officials on, were Spurs to score twice at -105, or both teams to score an over.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. The front three seems to have clicked of late. Kane scored in his last two games. I think Son scored in his four, and I think Lucas has scored in his last three. Things seem to be clicking with this new Conte 3-4-3. I don’t think Spurs have got any sort of issues with big key players being absent. We mentioned about Southampton’s woes in terms of their proficiency in scoring, and some of their players being missing. Yeah. Maybe. I mean, if Spurs score twice, do you think they win? Because that price is bigger.

Flash:

Yeah. Yeah.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Maybe it’s another sort of don’t complicate it. Spurs to win is +105.

Flash:

Well, FT in the chat, Stinch, has gone all Norwich on you and gone, “Southampton, team total, under 0.5,” so a clean sheet for Spurs, +180.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yep. I mean, I think, as I say, the way Conte is molding this Spurs team, it’s, first of all, making them very difficult to beat, and then even if you’re not creating high-quality chances, you’ve got almost three world-class attackers that can score, often out of nothing. Yep. I would be surprised to see that. I think I saw a stat yesterday, as well. Southampton scored the highest percentage of goals from outside the area in the Premier League, and that’s just not sustainable.

Flash:

No, it’s not. No. The other thing is that… Listen, I think we’ve got enough. I think we’ve dug out some absolute gems there. Everyone else in the chat, good luck. Make sure that you please subscribe and get us closer to 4,000, but more importantly, ring that bell, and that means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. Really looking forward to these games. Don’t forget, we are here again on Thursday. Mark and Stinch, is it normal time? You can let me know.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yep.

Mark O’Haire:

Yep.

Flash:

Is it normal time Thursday?

Mark Stinchcombe:

[crosstalk 00:47:20].

Flash:

Oh, that’s excellent. See, I’ve even got the guests letting me… Gambler, “Flash, give me a banker, please.” Oh. I mean it all depends what price you want, because I think… No. I mean, I think… There’s no banker, otherwise there’d be stars and it’d be lit up. Gambler, you cannot force these things. It’s as simple as that. I was going to do a parlay, but then I thought, “No.”

Flash:

Palace, -160, in with something, but again, no banker. Maybe we’ll find one for Thursday, because it’s line-up checks. It’s like… Well, COVID in the next 72 hours. Listen, just enjoy the games. Remember, they’re tomorrow, so get yourselves locked in very, very early. From everyone at BetUS, enjoy the happy holidays, from the award winner and the digger of all value and stats, and from myself, your presenter, from BetUS, we’ll see you soon. You take care.