Flash:
Come to you first, Mark O’Haire. It seems like that long ago, I thought I was going to have to wear a little flower so that you would know it was me.
Mark O’Haire:
It has been a while. I don’t mind an international break. I like my international football anyway, but sometimes I think it’s a nice time to take a step back, refresh, reset, and go back at it again. It’s a relentless campaign. Matches come thick and fast and it’s quite hard to keep up sometimes, especially if you’re covering multiple leagues. But now we’re on the home stretch and I think we said to each other off air, it’s going to be a really hectic period between now and the end of March when the next international break comes along. But buckle up and enjoy the ride, really; it’s good to have Premier League football back.
Flash:
Yeah, listen: if I told you what I was doing, I was all about Copa America, I was all about CONCACAF, I was all about the Central Americans. It was completely bonkers for me, Stinch. But FA Cup then comes along and it’s now at the business end of the FA Cup because, obviously, you’re one step closer to Wembley. So some of these teams, they’re going to be fighting on four fronts.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Definitely. Probably just for the big teams, really. I think there’s only a few. [inaudible 00:02:42] got knocked out the cup; Arsenal got knocked out the cup. Arsenal are out in Europe. Man United have got [inaudible 00:02:49] I think in the next round Champions League. I would be surprised if they navigated themselves there.
Mark Stinchcombe:
But I have to say, since we last saw them, there’s been an awful lot happen off the field, in terms of managerial changes, transfer changes, Roy Hodgson’s come on board at Watford, did a very good job at Crystal Palace in, I think, four seasons he was there. He guided them quite safely to mid-table finishes, never really ever in relegation trouble, and then, his first game for Watford Saturday night, he got a clean sheet with Burnley, watford’s first clean sheet of the season. But as we all know, Burnley is not an easiest place to go, especially in the winter with the difficult weather conditions.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Frank Lampard’s turned up at Everton. Obviously, Aubameyang’s left Arsenal. I would say Arsenal, Man United, and West Ham all stood still really in January, haven’t really strengthened themselves. And then, you look at the bottom: Norwich haven’t brought anybody in whereas Burnley and Newcastle have both been quite active. Lots have happened, really, so it’d be good to discuss it a bit more in depth as we enter each of the games.
Flash:
Okay. So make sure you get yourselves in the chat. Remember you are the third guest. Now, this is the way it’s going to work. I’m going to do the records. Then we’re going to do the games. Then we’re going to have a Q and A at the end, for you to ask your questions to the boys, the experts. Then I will give the official picks. So make sure you save your questions.
Flash:
I don’t mind the odd question coming in about the game that we’re actually covering. But then at the end, when you have your turn, don’t be shy. Don’t be like them kids at school that you talk all the way through the class, and then when I ask if there’s any questions, you all go quiet, because that is your time.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the said records, because obviously … Don’t like to talk about it. As you can see, we’re doing all right. If anybody’s trying to add them up and they don’t add up, it’s because we don’t duplicate. So if I have a +100, Mark has a +100 on the same game, we don’t add 200 to the table and the total, because obviously it’s only one unit. The team only wins one, but they do go on to the individuals.
Flash:
Right. So, Mark and Stinch, it is time. By the way, do I owe you anything from them or have I sorted it out now?
Mark O’Haire:
All good on my end, I think.
Flash:
Right. Stinch?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think accurate. Just need to change the negative to a positive now.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. Exactly. You’ve got plenty of time. Plenty of time at all. As I told you before, one season in the start of March, I was down 32 units and I ended up 16 units in profit. But let’s not test it again. Let’s try and do it a little bit earlier.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think it’s worth maybe just touching on it to be transparent. I think I’ve said to you before, I’m very happy with the bets I’ve taken to be honest and I would still take them again. I just feel some of them would be better [crosstalk 00:05:35].
Flash:
Well, no. That’s silly if you would take them again, because you already know that they lost.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Ha. I mean if the fixtures were played again later on in the season, to be fair, I would take them again. I just feel like a bit of bad luck. I think I’ve had six or seven voids on games [crosstalk 00:05:48] where I felt as though I was in a very strong position in play. Yeah. I’m not trying to make excuses; I’m just trying to be transparent and say I would continue to take the same bets and the same process.
Flash:
That’s it. You’ve got to stick with the process. You can’t start dodging and going against, because you go against everything and if you … It’s almost like you’re driving along the road, and all of a sudden there’s cars in front of you; you’ve just got to get in and wait for that opening. If you start ducking and diving, you’re asking for trouble.
Flash:
Okay. By the way, Mark O’Haire, you look about 22 today. What’s going on? You look like I’ve got Mark O’Haire’s younger brother with me.
Mark O’Haire:
I just had a shave on the weekend.
Flash:
That’s it. [crosstalk 00:06:25] Missus has been giving you a bit of hammer, has she?
Mark O’Haire:
Just a bit. Yeah. Yeah. [crosstalk 00:06:30] the whole international break.
Flash:
All right. Well, let’s kick straight on, then. Let’s go with this first game because the first game is a bit of a tricky one, if you’re a homeside, because it’s Burnley versus Manchester United. Burnley at a massive +525 and you can get them at plus one at -115 Man United, at -175 away from home. I’m not too sure I’d want to be anywhere near that. The draw is an interesting [inaudible 00:06:53] with a +320, and the under-over is at two and a half, with the under being at plus money. Mark O’Haire, first of all, I don’t see three goals in this game.
Mark O’Haire:
No. I don’t either. I think it could be a bit of a stinker. I watched Burnley’s match the weekend against Watford. Really intrigued to see that. A big six pointer at the bottom of the table. Roy Hodgson’s first game. Really intrigued to see how Weghorst was fair alongside Maxwel Cornet, and quite an exciting partnership up front for Burnley. But it was not a lot to really say about the match. It was dreadful. I think Weghorst and Cornet will get better as the season progresses and their understanding [crosstalk 00:07:29].
Flash:
What did you make of them early on? Do you think that they will cause problems?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I think they will. I really like Weghorst. I think that’s actually an upgrade on Chris Wood. I think they’ve got a tremendous deal there. We’ve seen already how influential Maxwel Cornet can be when he’s fit and firing and given the freedom to play to his best of ability. So I think they can combine it and be good probably further down the track because they look like they’ve, obviously, never trained together, let alone played together, at the weekend. So we’ll see how they go. They were the first team to fail to score against Watford all season and Watford did have the better of the opportunities.
Mark O’Haire:
Poor game, though, and Burnley have only won once all season. They’re rock bottom. Scored twice in seven games. It was also their fourth nil-nil in seven matches now in the Premier League. We know about their issues in front of goal, but what they still are is a doggy team, a resilient team, an organized team, which is difficult to beat. I know they played fewer games and most in the bottom half, but they have the best defense in terms of goals conceded, and only Southampton have lost fewer games in the bottom half, as well. Six of their defeats have come away from home. We know, as Stinch suggested, at Turf Moor, if conditions are windy, blustery, and a bit rainy, then it can be really difficult for opposition teams, so there’s no way I’d want United onside of those cramped odds at all.
Mark O’Haire:
Embarrassed on Friday night against Middlesbrough, despite again penalties, and I just think Ralf Rangnick’s not getting the respect he probably needs, in or out of the dressing room right now. So they’re a muddled group at the moment, United, and results have actually been pretty decent since the Watford debacle and Solskjaer’s departure. Six wins, three draws, just the one defeat in the premier league. But they do not look fluid in the final third and, if you look at their away performances so far this season, the only two matches in which they’ve really stamped their authority on the opposition were Spurs, before Nuno’s sacking, and then Brentford, who are in the right pickle at the moment themselves. So, yeah, I look at them-
Flash:
[crosstalk 00:09:09] But that was a draw at half-time, wasn’t it?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah [crosstalk 00:09:14].
Flash:
All the goals came in the second half there.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. But I just look at United’s performances against teams down there at the bottom. Norwich, Newcastle, and Watford, all just wretched, just absolutely stunk the place out. So I’m not expecting Burnley to go gung ho here. I think they’d be quite happy to play a patient, probing, counter-attack [inaudible 00:09:29] approach. So it all beds itself into an unders match, doesn’t it? So I probably prefer under two and three quarters, if I could, a nicer price just to get … If it is a three goal game, you’d still get half of your stake back, but I wouldn’t put anyone off backing unders, either.
Flash:
Stinch, it’s got to be unders, and at Man United, they’re absolutely stinking. Burnley, I’m not too sure that they’re going to be able to … If you’ve got Maguire, Lindelof, or any of them big [inaudible 00:06:41], they’re going to want to play against the Burnley-type strikers, so is this not a game that just cancels out. I’ll tell you what I am liking: what about Man United not to score twice at +115?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I’ll tell you what, under Ralf Rangnick’s 11 games in charge, only three times they’ve scored two or more goals, and that’s incredible, really, when you consider they’ve faced New Newcastle, they’ve faced Norwich, they played Burnley at home, they played [inaudible 00:10:21] Middlesbrough in the cup, Young Boys in the Champions League, Crystal Palace. It’s not like they’ve been playing the elite of the elite, United. They just don’t look fluid at all, I think, as Mark alluded to. I think he made it spot on when he says Ralf Rangnick’s not getting the respect. I think he summed up quite well.
Mark Stinchcombe:
He left Jesse Lingard out of the squad for Middlesbrough because he said his head wasn’t in the right place. Even if that wasn’t the truth, you don’t want your player going on social media and sending a message to say he is available. You shouldn’t be disrespecting the guy in charge. You’ll know all about that as a Premier League player, wouldn’t you, Flash, when you’re the manager. You’ve got to all be working harmoniously together to get the success that you need.
Mark Stinchcombe:
To be fair, as I said in January, they’ve lost Martial, loaned him out to Seville; lost van de Beek, loaned him out to Everton; Diallo’s gone to Rangers; Sancho got injured Friday night, and we know the issues regarding Mason Greenwood, and they haven’t brought in any replacements. So if the likes of Ronaldo, Cavani, Fernandes, and Rashford aren’t firing, there’s no one else there that they can bring off the bench or do something different, go for a plan B, or even a plan C.
Flash:
Burnley value up 525?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I was really tempted to try and get Burnley on side in some way.
Flash:
But plus one?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I was looking at plus one. Or even Burnley double chance at +150, but I just decided that United, at the end of day, do possess Ronaldo, do possess Cavani, Rashford, Fernandes who can score out of absolutely nowhere. But because of United’s struggles in terms of actually scoring goals, I just thought I’m getting United on side if I do take the under. So yeah, I’m going for the under 2.75.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Again, it’s decision process. For example, Everton v. Villa, we talked about before the international break: I wanted to get Villa onside. I could have backed Villa to win, I could have backed Villa [inaudible 00:12:19], but I went with Villa over 1.5 goals, and the bet I chose lost. But all the decision process was completely correct, so hoping I’ve done the right thing this time around. I’ve got one-nil, two-nil, two-one, either side. I’ve got nil-nil. I’ve got seven scores on my side. If it does finish with three goals, I still get half my stake back.
Mark Stinchcombe:
As I say, with United struggling going forward, we know how Burnley will set up. Actually, if you look at Burnley’s results against the big teams this season, really, really impressive. They only lost two-nil against both City and Liverpool. They went to Stamford bridge and drew 1-1. Against Arsenal, they drew nil-nil there, and then at home against some of these teams … they haven’t played all of them yet; there are still more to come … but they only lost one-nil at home to Arsenal, and they drew nil-nil with West Ham.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So against the better teams, arguably, Burnley are even more difficult to break down because I don’t think they don’t play expansive. I think they know against the teams lower down, they need to attack at some point because it’s crucial to try. If they pick up points, that means the other teams aren’t picking up. I’m expecting just a real tight, difficult game and, as I said, on Saturday night against Watford, the weather definitely played a part and if it’s still like that, I foresee a very low scoring game.
Flash:
Do we know what the weather’s going to be like here this mid-week?
Mark Stinchcombe:
I wouldn’t like to predict the weather because I think weathermen have got the best job in the world, whereas they can be wrong and still get paid.
Flash:
Well, it doesn’t matter what the weather is; we’ll see some players with gloves on. It’s +120 for the draw half-time.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. If you’re backing draws, generally you’ll think it’ll be a low scoring game, so I guess the only issue there is if someone creeps into a slender one-nil lead. But it’s all about what approach you prefer to take. If you do like backing draws then go for draws, but if you prefer to back unders, I would take the unders. They’re both matched up with each other. If you’re backing a draw, you’re seeing zero goals or maybe two goals, so that’s two [crosstalk 00:14:19] out of the three that you’ve got covered. I think it’s just all about personal preference, really, because the prices are all correlated.
Flash:
Okay. Well, let’s have a little look at the official picks of our first game. It’s Burnley versus Manchester United. Myself and Mark O’Haire have just kept well away because we think the Man United stink, to be honest. Under two and half stroke-free, which is under 2.75 goals at -135. It can go with the draw halftime at +120. Man United not to score twice at +115, but we see this as a very, very tight game; wouldn’t be surprised if Man United do win one or two-nil.
Flash:
Sam the weatherman in the chat is saying, “It’s light rain and nine degrees tomorrow.” Is that like nine degrees as in like 33 or 34 degrees, or is that celsius, Sam? Don’t give me half a story.
Flash:
Let’s move on to the second game because I like this one for goals, and I think there’s value everywhere you look if you look in the right places. Man City versus Brentford: Man City -900, Brentford at +2200. Could be double for me. Under or over three and a half goals, I see over at -105. The draw, forget it, is +900.
Flash:
Now, then. I’m going to come to you first, Stinch, because I see Man City scoring minimum four or five, so if I’m seeing them score four or five, I’m going over three and a half at -105. But the Man City to win by three at -110, I see this easy being a three-nil, four-nil, five-nil, maybe even five-one.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Brentford have been … I’ve been really disappointed with Brentford over the last few months. I think there are mitigating circumstances for them. They’ve been missing their goalkeeper who was ruled out for three months or maybe a bit longer. Although, he was back against Everton at the weekend, but they still manage to shoot four again, so maybe you shouldn’t read too much into his return. But they were [inaudible 00:16:12] and they’re missing a number of players in the defensive positions, and they’re another team that haven’t really strengthened. They signed Christian Eriksen, but I wouldn’t imagine he’s going to be straight into action.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So I think it makes sense to try and oppose Brentford and we all know what Man City capable of doing going forward, don’t we, capable of scoring 5, 6, 7 easily. Brentford have conceded two or more goals in the last seven away games. So, again, you’re right, it all points to a big Man City win. It’s just how we go about that, I suppose. Again, I was looking at Man City, first half, just to throw something else out there, Man City minus one, first half’s -120 [crosstalk 00:16:55].
Flash:
Wow. That’s decent.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I don’t know if you remember, just after Christmas, we all jumped on the Man City first-half bandwagon away at Brentford, and unfortunately, they only went into half one-nil up, but as I say, that’s still money back [crosstalk 00:17:08].
Flash:
It finished one-nil, as well. It absolutely killed me, Stinch. But in that game, they didn’t play with any … Listen: Grealish, he wouldn’t even be like a relegation footer. He shouldn’t be in a proper team, especially away from home. At home, then it might be a different story. But that was the problem, there, was personnel. They would just mishmash.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think the other thing that maybe lends itself to Man City is Brentford do like to play football when they can, rather than a team that’s going to sit back and defend deep. So that arguably aids Man City’s chances of finding space to create chances and score goals. Crucially, I think other than Gabriel Jesus, they’ve not really had too many players notably away. I think Edison probably was away, but I know he didn’t play. So I think Man City have probably been great for Pep, really, how much work he does on the training ground. They played Fulham at the weekend comfortably [141 00:18:04] and you think Fulham are a similar level really to Brentford, absolutely flying in the championship at the moment. They’ve been scoring sixes on a regular basis of late.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So trying to get Man City onside, it’s trying to find that best way. I think, probably you’re right, the handicap is the way to go because the other bet, especially the total goals, you’re relying on maybe Brentford contributing, and really going forward, Brentford had been quite blunt of late, heavily relying on, well, Toney. But other than penalties, he’s not really been contributing in front of goal much this season. Bryan Mbeumo, he didn’t play at the weekend, either. I’m not sure about his availability.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So trying to get City onside somehow, but again, I always had the caveat in, if you want the bet to pay, it’s how much motivation City want to win this by three or four goals? Have they got their sights set on weekend or Champions League next week with the games coming up thick and fast? Maybe Guardiola will be happy to go to nil up and then in 60 minutes, he’ll start taking some of his best players off, although, we know the players coming on are still of high quality. If you’ve got a way to bet Man City or if you’ve got preferred way to bet Man City, whether that be handicap, whether that be team goals, or that even be backing into win to nil, although that was quite short when I looked at it yesterday. I think it was -150. I would just continue down your preferred route.
Flash:
How about Man City over one and a half goals first half between +135 and +145. Just in total, Man City scored twice, Mark O’Haire, in the first half at home to the cannon fodder.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. It’s one of the more appealing plays for this game for me. Personally, I think when the market makes a team about 90% chance to win, it’s one just to leave alone, to be honest. I think the handicap is big enough and I don’t really like the idea of going into a game and needing a team to win by three or more goals to get my profit. City have been playing, obviously; in terms of results, 14 wins for 16 in the Premier League. But I don’t know. I don’t think they’ve been as good as we probably expect them to be recently. Ignore the FA Cup. But since Boxing Day, they’ve been held at Southampton, beat Chelsea fair enough; they played pretty well that day, but they struggled past Arsenal and Brentford, as well.
Mark O’Haire:
Now, I guess the caveat is, three of those fixtures were all on the road and at Etihad they’re a different beast. [crosstalk 00:20:31] But I looked of the underlying process and they’re averaging 1.4 expected goals more than their opponents on a per game basis at the … Sorry. 1.67 at the Etihad. But if you look at their goal difference, it equates to about 2.36 goals per game, so there’s a bit of a chasm there between what they’re actually creating and converting, or what they’re conceding and what they’re stopping their opponents from doing.
Mark O’Haire:
There’s a few red flags in there for me just to walk away from this game. But as you say, Brentford are in a bit of a hole at the moment. It’s eight defeats in 10. Conceded twice [inaudible 00:21:02] in their last seven away. Beaten by three at Liverpool, which is normally a decent gauge. But I thought they competed reasonably well at Outfield for 45 minutes before imploding. So, Flash, you’ve nailed Man City throughout the season [crosstalk 00:21:15].
Flash:
Thank you.
Mark O’Haire:
When they’ve won convincingly, and also they [crosstalk 00:21:18] started against Southampton.
Flash:
Yeah. I’m adding. You’re talking and I’m adding. I’ve just found … Someone said +145. I think Man City scored twice. Listen: I wouldn’t be surprised if I cop with my first two goals in the first half, and maybe not cop with my minus two and a half. But I just think it’s a free hit. I see them scoring twice in the first 20 minutes.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I’m not going to deny that. I think City will win this game comfortably. It’s just not one for me. So, absolutely, fill your boots.
Flash:
Yeah. I am filling my boots. I am absolutely filling my boots. Everyone in the chat, they all seem to be loving … Jonathan Nelson is saying Man City first half minus one.
Flash:
What are you doing, Jonathan? What price is that? Because for them to win at minus one, you’ve got to have team total of over 1.5. I know that minus one isn’t … What is it? It’s got to be minus one.
Jonathan:
It’s -120 because [crosstalk 00:22:14].
Flash:
Right, Jonathan. Okay. Let me just take Jonathan to school for a second. Okay? Jonathan, I understand that you know your betting and you love your betting. But for you to get a winner at minus one, you have got to score two. If you are getting +140 for team total over 1.5, then you’ve got to take it. Even if it doesn’t come up your way, you’ve got to take 140 over -125, -130. Okay? So, jump on my wagon. Come on. I’ll carry you.
Flash:
Official bets, Man City versus Brentford. I see Man City scoring four or five here, and as long as they score two in the first half, me, myself, Jonathan, and the rest of the people in the chat are going to be very happy. Man City minus two, that -110, I see them winning by free goals, and I see them scoring two in the first half, so over 1.5. In the first half, I’ve just took +135, because I haven’t got time to be scouting around like you lot have. I’ve got to be giving you a price, so it’s +135.
Flash:
Let’s move on to game three. I was surprised there, Stinch, that you didn’t get involved. It’s Norwich versus Palace. Before I give you the money line, Palace at +180 not to score. That’s always the first port of call. Do we think that’s value? Norwich at +250 to win the game. Palace at +115. Palace is far stronger. I think this is a great matchup for the visitors, as it’s always a great matchup whenever you play Norwich, normally. Draw is at +240. The under-over at two and a half. I wouldn’t put anyone off of the over here, as well, and that’s a +115. Mark O’Haire, I see Palace too big, too strong, and too sharp for this Norwich side.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I think this is a bit of an [inaudible 00:23:52], to be honest. I think on the surface, I was quite interested in getting Palace onside with a quarter goal deficit rather than the full-on win, which I still think is a reasonable price, and the bet allows you to lose just half of your steak if the game ends in the draw, which I think there’s a high potential for this match to end in a stalemate. So I’m taking a watching brief because I just don’t think Palace win often enough to justify the risk. We’ve showered them with loads and loads of praise all season. Patrick Vieira has been given a lot of pats on the back for the work he’s done and the transfer business that they did in the summer, as well. I held my hands up and I never expect Palace to be quite as good as they have been under Vieira, considering what he did in his previous roles.
Mark O’Haire:
But if you take a step back, they still only won five Premier League games in 22 attempts, which, when you associate all those positive talk that we’ve had around Palace, it’s not quite been good enough, and they’ve drawn nine times, so that’s why I think it’s a big runner. What I found quite fascinating, really, is Palace’s record against teams outside of the top eight: two wins, seven draws, two defeats. So basically, two wins from 11 against the weakest section of the division. One of those was obviously against Norwich at [inaudible 00:24:56] Park. But Norwich had a real scratch team out that day. Fans were suggesting it was the worst team they’ve ever played.
Flash:
82% non-defeats for Norwich.
Mark O’Haire:
You compare it, Palace’s record there, to Norwich’s record against the teams outside the top eight: [crosstalk 00:25:12] four wins, two draws, and six defeats, so basically Norwich are winning more often and winning more points than Palace against the worst teams in the division, which is [crosstalk 00:25:18] a bit of a surprise, really. They also come into this match having won four of the last five, including the FA cup, beating Wolves to nil at the weekend. Huge three-nil victory against Watford last time out in the premier league. Newfound belief. I think Dean Smith had touched on it a few times during the losing run, but they weren’t too far away and, on occasion, we’ve watched they’re match against Man United and thought, “There’s something in this for Norwich,” and then, we saw a week later they capitulate.
Mark O’Haire:
So I’m just finding them so hard to second-guess at the moment, and because Palace have only won five Premier League games all season, I just can’t push the button. So I just thought I’d leave it alone and let someone else have a crack at it.
Flash:
Stinch, maybe you’ll give me a little bit of confidence because I’ve got Palace too strong, too quick, and, with Norwich being a little bit confident, they’re going to leave the back door and especially the wings open, and that’s exactly where Palace’s strengths are.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think, maybe if you ignore everything that’s happened this season and just look at these two in a one-off match, then you’d want to get with Palace. But I think Mark’s right; there’s enough red flags to be wary, shall we say. Mark mentioned about the fact Palace have won just five games all season. They fell two in 11 of the last 12 matches away from home and we talk about home and away quite a lot, and it’s nearly worth about half a goal, home advantage, in England. We know the fans at Palace are always very loud, very vocal. That last game before the international break when they played Liverpool, they absolutely played [inaudible 00:26:48] the first half an hour. But then the last hour, it looked like Palace, if anything, were the better team, so away from home there, they’re obviously a different beast.
Mark Stinchcombe:
In terms of the staple diet of the clean sheet, it’s just one clean sheet in the last 11 for Palace, and that was the reverse fixture. But, as Mark mentioned, some Norwich fans were listing the Norwich’s side as the worst ever team in the Premier League put out that day because of injuries and illness. So, yeah: massive.
Mark Stinchcombe:
We talked about … It’s a very similar price to when Everton went there a few weeks ago. We all talked about Everton’s price and none of us really wanted to go near Everton at the price. I’m not suggesting Palace were as bad as Everton, but Mark’s right, the stats simply say that Palace aren’t winning enough games at the odds, and that’s a great example that he gives, when they’re playing the bottom half teams, that maybe they’re not giving these teams enough respect. When they play the top teams, maybe they are trying harder and maybe they are taken on board. Patrick Vieira, he played for all the big clubs in his career. Maybe he gets them up more for the bigger games.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Don’t get me wrong, if you looked at this blindly and you saw that obviously Norwich nearly rooted to the bottom, hardly scored any goes all the season, and you’re getting a team at plus money, then on paper it’s probably a knocking bet. But yeah, I just think there’s enough reasons, enough evidence surrounding it, that there’s some risk attached. But that’s what betting is all about, at the end of the day. You wouldn’t be interested if it was -110, so the fact they are +115 is maybe why you feel it’s value. What price would you make [crosstalk 00:28:34] for that?
Flash:
Yeah. [crosstalk 00:28:34] and for them to score twice. That was the other one. I’ve made, maybe a two-two draw, and I’m still going to pick up a +125 for Palace to score twice. But the biggest red flag I’ve seen and heard of since we started Norwich versus Crystal Palace, was that you have not gone anywhere near the +180 on Norwich not to score. That’s my biggest red flag. [crosstalk 00:28:55] But I wouldn’t put anyone off of Palace scoring twice and not worry about what the score is. +125, over 1.5 goals, for Palace because Norwich ain’t keeping no clean sheets. I know they did in the FA Cup, but the FA Cup this week was full of traps and horrendous performances, and we’ll come on to one of them very, very shortly.
Flash:
Official picks here: I’m not dodging this one. I’m going to take Palace. I think they’re far too strong, far too pacey, and midfield, they’re just going to completely dominate. Palace: money line at +15. Yep. Sign me up. It was close to being my banker, by the way, just to give me a little bit more … Well, I’m just digging a bigger hole, really. Am I ever going to be jumping around a hill? You’re going to be throwing mud all over me. Okay. Yeah. It’s the away team for me.
Flash:
Let’s move now to North London, because it’s definitely not the away side, this one. It’s Spurs versus Southampton. Top them at -170: not for me, thank you. Minus one at +110: that is interesting. Southampton at +460: not a great record topping them. Under-over, two and a half goals, with the over being at -135. The draw is at 315, +315. Southampton not to score is +155. Mark O’Haire?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. Things have been good for a goal, recently. I think they scored in eight of their last nine Premiere League games. They’re not too bad going forward. It’s defensively where they’ve got issues, particularly on the road. I don’t have it to hand, but since the start of last season, Southampton have conceded by far and away the most goals away from home in the premier league, and it’s by some distance as well. That’s my concern about Southampton coming into this match.
Mark O’Haire:
They do tend to toil on their travels; six defeats on the road and they’ve conceded twice or more in nine of 11 away days, which is remarkable, considering they managed a nil-nil draw at the Etihad earlier in this season. So how they managed that, I don’t know, compared to those stats and trends. But they are shipping goals. They’re giving away chances, without a clean sheet since November’s international break. Lyanco and [Ambrosio 00:30:55] were forced off of the weekend and looked to be probably missing this midweek, as well. This match was played not so long ago, late December, and the Saints were really fortunate to come away with a draw at St. Mary’s. Spurs had two second-half goals disallowed.
Mark O’Haire:
I think Tottenham are trending in the right direction. I probably expected too much too soon from Conte and Spurs, but I do think they are the favorites for the top four at the moment. I think they are trending in the right direction. I think after what we saw Thomas Tuchel achieve overnight with Chelsea, I probably imagined Conte would be able to do something similar with Spurs. But you look at their performances, they’re definitely moving in the right way.
Mark O’Haire:
To score three goals against Brighton is no easy feat, even if it is the FA Cup. I thought they were absolutely outstanding away at Leicester. They needed the win late on, but still fully deserved the points there. If you take out the performances against Chelsea, who do tend to be their kryptonite, they’ve been very convincing for quite some time now. I think the January business was superb. I think [Benton Cole 00:31:47] slots in there wonderfully well. [inaudible 00:31:51], really adaptable, versatile, and offers something very different. Harry Kane is in form and scoring goals and just having more attempts at goal, which always helps, so he’s enjoying his football.
Mark O’Haire:
Spurs seem to be doing that as well, and their record against teams below them in the premier league this season, 10 wins, two draws, just the one defeat; at home, six wins from six against teams below them. I think they’d be too strong for Saints. So I think there’s numerous ways you can look at it, which way you want to go.
Mark O’Haire:
I, personally, was looking at Spurs to win at over one and a half goals at -120, but I’ve just taken a slightly shorter price on Spurs minus three quarters, -130. It just means I get a half stake’s win if Spurs win by exactly one goal, covers the one-nil, I get a full stake’s win if Spurs win by two or more goals, which could be anything really. I think you are coming from a similar angle, too, Flash.
Flash:
Yeah. I am. I am. I think that Tottenham will score goals against Southampton. Southampton are always going to be a big threat from set pieces, but the defenders, they mark space. I’ve been saying for years about marking space. I’ve never seen space score a goal; mark the person in the box. The thing is now with Spurs is that belief is growing. I don’t love Spurs at the moment, but I certainly feel as if they’re going to be too strong for Southampton.
Flash:
Stinch, when we look at some of these numbers, though, I maybe feel as if I’ve over complicated this because I’m happy … I wrote Spurs to win 3-1. The -135 over two and a half goals just doesn’t complicate it. But I’m getting -150 for Tottenham to score twice, so minus one at +110 is a free hit?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Yeah, potentially. I think you know Southampton better than all of us and probably you’ve watched more of their games than us, so happy to lean on your inside knowledge, really. But I think Southampton is, as Mark alluded to, pretty much a broken record away from home. I think it’s definitely worth congratulating yourself on the … I think it was the last game before the international break when they went to Wolves. Really low goal line, wolves were I think +140 or +130, and I think you’ve bet Wolves. You bet Wolves score over 1.5 goals and they won 3-1.
Flash:
Oh, yeah. But, listen, listen, listen: let me tell you now, Southampton were by far the better team that day. For 40 minutes of that first half, Southampton’s best performance, I tweeted it where I’m going, “This is Southampton’s best performance of the season.” I think Wolves went in one-nil up or something like that, but Southampton were frighteningly good, and I’m looking at, “I’m on the wrong side here.” But it worked out. I’ll tell you how lucky I was that day: Traore scored … do you know what I mean? … in the 93rd minute, to make it look 3-1 in the 93rd minute. It totally glossed over how good Southampton were. But against this side, my only downside with this minus one is if they’re winning 2-1, do they shut up shop and just make sure to get the free points.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Having said that, Conte has had I’m not sure how many games. I know he has only been at Spurs about 10 or 12 games. But about nine of those have been against bottom half teams and Spurs have been very good in the underlying data. They’ve been averaging around about two expected goals per game. When you’ve got players like Harry Kane that are capable of scoring difficult chances, that two expected goals can easily become three, and Mark mentioned about Southampton’s woes away from home: 14 of the last 16 games they’ve conceded at least two or more goals. So, again, that nil-nil at the Etihad is just a mad anomaly.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Also, I’ve been very impressed with Broja this season. I feel like if he’s not scoring or Ward-Prowse is not scoring from a free kick or creating a chance from a dead ball situation, then maybe Southampton … I think I mentioned it a few times. I think maybe Southampton not got somebody they can rely on for goals if neither of those two are firing. I’m not a big fan of Lyanco at the back, either. He’s come from [crosstalk 00:35:54]-
Flash:
No. He’s not half as good as he thinks he is.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. He’s come from Torino and Série A and we know how goal heavy Série A is and Torino regularly involved in high scoring games. So very happy to side with Spurs. I guess, just maybe, I would be concerned if Son’s back. I’m not sure if he’s available, but as Mark says, Harry Kane seems to finally found his form again with addition of [Kuzevski 00:36:17]. [Bergwijn 00:36:19] was obviously imperative in the victory at Leicester. You’ve still got Lucas Moore, as well, capable of contributing.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I just thought Spurs to win was a bit short, Spurs over 1.5 team goals, was a bit short. But I really like, actually, the bet that Mark proposed there, Spurs to win and then score over one … Sorry. Spurs to win at over 1.5 goals in the game at -120. So you’re just increasing that -150 to -120 and you’ll pick up as long as Spurs don’t win by the single goal, and given Southampton’s defensive statistics, you wouldn’t expect it to finish one-nil Spurs.
Flash:
No. You must get a great price and a great value if you win. Spurs to win and both teams to score, you’re probably going to be looking at +245 or something like that. Southampton’s just scoring nearly every game; it’s just the other team score more. Official pick … If you haven’t got an official pick, it’s not worth it. So, everyone in the chat … Oh, by the way, [inaudible 00:37:12] says he wants to go over nine corners. Yeah. I think nine’s low enough for you to go and enjoy because Southampton don’t sit back. They have a go, as well. They’ll contribute four or five corners.
Flash:
Tottenham: so that’s basically -0.75 goals at -130. I’ve just gone Tottenham minus one at +110, I see this baby. I wrote down 3-1. So I tried to work around that. Stinch quite likes the Tottenham to win and over one and a half goals. I think it was -120. So let’s move on.
Mark Stinchcombe:
+225, Flash, for Tottenham to win and both teams to score.
Flash:
Yeah. There you go. That seems like a realistic … It brings in that 2-1, as well, didn’t it? That very smelly 2-1 where Mark O’Haire gets half his dough back and I lose the lot.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And that you get your money back, as well.
Flash:
Oh, yeah. Of course, because it’s a free hit, obviously. Yeah. So that’s where I go with the minus one.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s move on, because this is a really, really strange game. It’s Aston Villa versus Leeds. Aston Villa, -120; Leeds +310; Leeds draw double chance at +100. This is a really, really tough game to pick the drawer. +290 could well be a runner. I’m not sure we see over three goals, though. That’s why it’s a +115. Stinch, give me some numbers, because Villa-Leeds, I’m thinking that Leeds could be dangerous, but I couldn’t go against Villa at home. They’ve got to click sooner or later.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Well, I really like Villa. I discussed it a few times, backed them away at Everton. Unfortunately, didn’t get paid out, but it was on the right line. Big fan of Steven Gerrard, his management. Bit of a broken record for me, really. I’m still waiting for Bamford to come back for Leeds and I still think he’s going to miss this game. You mentioned the draw. It’s really interesting to note, actually, that Villa are the team with the fewest draws in the league this season, [crosstalk 00:39:03] just two out of 21 matches. So you can see they either win or they lose and I’m not convinced by them defensively. I think Tyrone Mings, for example, encapsulates them quite well. Very good on the ball, but maybe not the best-
Flash:
He makes Terry Maguire look good.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Maybe not the best defensively. It jumped out at me as soon as I looked to the game; I saw the goal line of three and I thought, “Uh-oh. I wonder what both teams scoring over 2.5 goals is,” and it’s +100. Now, in that, we only need three goals to win the bet, whereas in the other bet, we need four to get paid out. Obviously, we get our money back if there’s only three, but Mark made a good point earlier: if you’re going into a game and you’re betting a team to win, and they’ve got a handicap to clear of two, already you might feel a bit nervous. So you go into the game and you’re back over three and, again, you need four to get paid already. You’re feeling a bit nervous.
Mark Stinchcombe:
But with these two teams, I’d say I think they’re both very good going forward, but I think both are still vulnerable defensively, and the numbers really back it up, to be honest. Villa at 13 of their matches go over 2.5 goals; 11 of them saw both teams to score. Leeds have 12 that have gone over, and 10 saw both teams to score. So you’re not really taking too much of a risk by backing over 2.5 on both teams to score and worrying that either team keeps a clean sheet, in my opinion. Those two combined, you’re looking at an 84% strike rate at Villa park, 70% of matches have seen both teams score, and Leeds on the road have seen 70% of matches both teams to score.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I just think this is a fantastic way to basically get goals on our side when the goal lines pitched up at three, without having to get involved with that high goal line, if you like. I think there’s a very similar price, as well. What was it? +110 for over three? Yeah. +100, if you take away a goal and just throw both teams to scoring. So we backed it when Leeds went to West Ham and it was in by halftime. I think something similar is on the cards in this midweek clash.
Flash:
Yeah. I couldn’t actually pick the winner, but I fancy we do see goals in the last 20 minutes, Mark O’Haire. The other thing I’ve got to update is it says there, “Draw money line: +290.” I can tell you that BetUS just moved the line. It’s now +300. But if you wanted the draw after 75 minutes and not get done in the last 20, then it’s +245. I’m so close to adding that. +245 for it to be a draw after 74 minutes, 59 seconds, give me money, and then go and get your third goal. I see this being 1-1 after 75 minutes, Mark O’Haire, or even 2-2.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I’d expect goals. I actually had exactly same bet as Stinch laid out. I’ve pulled back on it, though, because Patrick Bamford, I thought he might be back, but they’ve confirmed on Monday morning that he’s missing, and Bielsa seemed a bit disillusioned as to what the injury is and how long more he’s going to be out for. He doesn’t seem to be improving at all, which is quite concerning, really, from a Leed’s perspective.
Mark O’Haire:
I was quite keen on them going into the gaming as Newcastle, before the international break, and I thought they played really well on the back of what they achieved at West Ham dominated the match, [inaudible 00:42:15] and Harrison played really well on the flags. But it just another example of how much they miss Bamford, because Dan James is a willing runner, but he’s no Patrick Bamford leading that line. Junior Firpo is still out; Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper are out, as well. [inaudible 00:42:29] is at least expected back.
Mark O’Haire:
They’ve just been so erratic, Leeds, haven’t they? So it’s really hard to nail them and know what they’re going to be, what sort of performance they’re going to put in in this match. I think Aston Villa are an interesting proposition coming into this match. Steven Gerrard talked about using the 18 days between their last game and this as basically an opportunity to have a mini pre-season. They beat Everton one-nil before the break, but it was a back-to-the-wall job, and they’re now 11 points above the drop zone. So results and performances have been quite promising. Well, actually results is five wins, one draw, and four defeats under Gerrard, but three of the four defeats came against the top three, so they’ve actually been pretty decent. They’ve scored in nine of their 10 games under him, and they’ve only leaked multiple goals once to teams outside the top six, so there’s improvements in both boxes under Gerrard.
Mark O’Haire:
But Buendia’s starting to get the best out of him in that free role. [Kutina 00:43:21] has looked much more confident and happy since his switch from Barcelona, or even playing for Brazil, he’s looked all right. And then, you’ve got Cameron Chambers, as well, a new body, a bit of versatility and defense. So I do like Villa, I think the price is reasonable enough, but I think ultimately, if you’re having a bet in this game, you want to be with goals. Villa have scored in 15 of the last 16 at home, and they’ve scored twice or more in eight of 12 against teams in 12 and below.
Mark O’Haire:
And then, I’ve talked about Leeds before, but away from home, they’ve scored in seven of 10, and since promotion, 22 of 29 away games they’ve scored in, and 19 of those 29 saw over two and a half goals, as well. But I just pulled back because of Bamford missing and I guess I was burned by the Leeds performance against Newcastle enough to leave it alone. I’ve got confidence in this Sevilla team, too, so I balanced the two up and thought I’ll let Stinch have it.
Flash:
Yeah. I’m going to leave it, as well, because more you talk about it, wouldn’t be surprised if Leeds were 3-1 up at halftime or something. But, there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Villa were 3-1 up. I think goals is the only way to go, now I’m thinking about that. So I’m going to leave the +245 on the 75 minute mark, for the draw, anyway. It’s a draw of 75 minutes at +245. Now, if it is a draw, and I haven’t done it, I’ll still be shy and then telling you I told you so. But I’m not doing it.
Flash:
Official picks only and they’re the only ones that matter. So for me and Mark, it is a pull-away, because there’s so many eventualities here. So both teams are scoring over 2.5 at +100. Let’s cheer on Stinch and make a little dent in that record of his. So it’s both teams to score and over two and a half goals at +100. Remember, we did that West Ham versus Leeds and it was in, Mark, after about 26 minutes.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s move on to the next game because I’ve got plenty, plenty to say. If you’re a Leicester fan, then cover your ears. It’s Liverpool versus Leicester. Liverpool, -335, Leicester +825; that tells you everything at the moment. Under-over three and a half goals, well, I’m not so sure about that because I fancy Liverpool could just strangle the life out of them. I’m not interested in the draw at +515. Team total, they’re telling you that Leicester are going to score, as well. Stinch, your numbers … I was going to say, “Oh, okay. Leicester, they do well against big sides. They went to, obviously, the Etihad and they’ve won, and had the best record. They then shipped six. If I told you that in the last four away visits of Leicester, so Leicester’s four away games, they’ve let in 16 goals. 16. That tells me that there’s no coaching going on and I think they’re number one at letting in goals from set pieces. Again, no coaching.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think it’s really difficult to put finger on what’s gone really wrong with the defensive team, there.
Flash:
Well, defenders don’t defend.
Mark Stinchcombe:
But that’s not something that they should just automatically stop doing if they’ve been doing it their whole playing career, or at least for the season before at Leicester. I think I’ve read that maybe Johnny Evans is the big miss because he’s the organizer and the leader, but Kasper Schmeichel’s still there behind them. He’s obviously a very experienced player and got credentials in winning the Premier League, for example, a very good international career, as well. I don’t really know what’s gone wrong with Leicester.
Mark Stinchcombe:
But in terms of this game, I just thought a few of the … We look at that -345 for Liverpool, no way that we’d seen that price, I think, last season, because that just goes to show how much turmoil Leicester are in, really. Concede four away at Forest in in the championship, in the FA cup, over the weekend. It was like a first choice Leicester team and Leicester went off odds on. They were, I think, about -110. They went off at-
Flash:
They were [crosstalk 00:47:10] +115. They were my banker of the weekend, Stinch. I’m happy to get as many custard pies thrown at me. They dominated for 20 minutes against the wind. All of a sudden, their defense was [inaudible 00:47:24], they went one-nil down, they were three-nil down in seven minutes. People weren’t tracking; they’d lost all their discipline. And yet, going forward, Barnes, Maddison, they’ve got Daka, Iheanacho, they’ve got Tielemans, they’ve got Vardy, but at the back, they’re just all over the shop.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I think that it brings us quite nicely back to the odds because the goal I set, three and a half, Liverpool’s team total was set at two and a half, yet Liverpool handicap’s one and a half, and they’re all very similar prices. So I think if you want to get involved in this bout, in this game, I think Liverpool -1.5 is the way to go, at slightly odds on. Salah, I think, will probably be back; not sure about Mane, but given the fact that Jota is in great form. They’ve signed Lewis. Diaz, Harvey, Elliot’s come back, Thiago’s back.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Don’t think there’s any real massive misses for Liverpool, and I think they’ll be licking their lips at this Leicester defense. We all know how strong Liverpool have been at half field. I think they’re unbeaten in something like the 33 of the last 34 games or something. We know what the crowd’s like on a midweek night; they’ll be fully up for it. This game’s on Thursday, as well. Both teams played on Sunday, so both will have had a decent amount of rest. So I would be surprised if we saw a repeat, basically, of what happened at Christmas, because I think we were all very keen on Liverpool winning goals when they met just after Christmas and Leicester scraped that one-nil win, didn’t they, with Salah missing a penalty and Kasper Schmeichel having a [inaudible 00:48:59] game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So I wouldn’t expect the same outcome, but you never know in football. But just trying to play the odds, that’s our job here; Liverpool on the handicap, I feel like you’re stealing at least a goal, compared to the goal line and Liverpool’s team total.
Flash:
Yeah. The only thing I … I want to be with Liverpool all the way here, Mark O’Haire, and I’m looking at all the numbers and I’m thinking, “Liverpool must crush these,” but after such a bad performance from Leicester … I think Rogers is breathing through a straw at the moment. I think he is definitely on his way out because people say, “They won the cup last year.” Yeah, they did. But they’re papering over so many cracks. I want Liverpool to go and really do a number on them, but I’m also thinking are Liverpool going to go and put three or four in?
Mark O’Haire:
I think there’s definitely going to be motivation from Liverpool side because of the match that Stinch talked about after Christmas, where they dominated the KP, lost one-nil to Leicester’s only shot on target, and I think that was a very much patched up Leicester team, as it will be in mid-week defensively. You talk about Brendan Rodgers; he went to town on his team after the Forest defeat. He said he was embarrassed and he was really brutal about some of his comments towards his players. I think for the first time this season, he’s really unloaded on his team, but he’s the one who keeps picking the same players. You look at the back forward fielder against Forest, James Justin, who’s been injured for most of the season, Amartey, Söyüncü, and Thomas; how are they going to contain Liverpool’s frontline, regardless of whether Salah and Mane play?
Mark O’Haire:
I do think Salah will play in this match, so quite a scary prospect for a Leicester team coming into this match who, their standards have dropped dramatically since the last two seasons. It’s quite a harrowing number of numbers compared to their season so far. I’ve got them at 16th, unexpected points, 16th, unexpected goals, ratio, only Newcastle are allowing more expected goals. They’re considered the most shots on target, the second most shots in the box, and the second most shots from anywhere, basically, which is appalling for a team who have got top six, top four, ambitions. Liverpool haven’t been quite at their best against the best teams in the division so far this season, but this is a great opportunity for them to kickstart their title challenge again, really, after Southampton held Man City before the break. There still is an opportunity for them.
Mark O’Haire:
I looked at all the odds you got over three and a half goals that odds-on quotes; you’ve got Liverpool with quite a decent handicap to overcome, as well. The total goal expectancy is around 3.7, so basically the mark here is suggesting Liverpool will win this match three-one, which I think feels about right, to be honest. I’ve got no real thirst to get behind short quotes on a high goal angle, so I thought the sensible solution here was to back a nice price, which is Liverpool to win and both teams to score. I did it at the KP.
Mark O’Haire:
I was quite happy with my angle. It’s obviously higher variance than all the other angles, but I just think Leicester still possess all that quality in forward areas, but are absolutely hopeless defensively, too. Three clean sheets all season in the Premier League, but 70% of their Premier League matches have featured both team scoring. I think they’re more than good enough to get a goal. They scored three at the Etihad at the end of the day, so why can’t they score at Anfield? So I think Liverpool will win this game quite comfortably, but Leicester to score two.
Flash:
Yeah. I love that you found the value of +140. I just hate the fact that Leicester are one of them teams that as soon as you think you’ve got your foot on their throat, they find a way out. Oh, listen: I just can’t be with Leicester. That’s as simple as that and I hope Liverpool go and do the business.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because everything that we are saying we want and hope that Liverpool do the business. It’s Liverpool and both teams to score at +140 even brings in the little 21, which means that you’ve got a +140, but would’ve lost with the under three and a half goal line. Okay.
Flash:
So move on to the final game, and as we do, remember it’s a Q and A session coming up, so get your questions ready and I’ll ask the boys. It’s Wolves versus Arsenal. I expect this to be a very … I thought this might have been a two goal line. Wolves, +250 on the money line; draw double chance at -140 might attract a few. Arsenal, +120; not so sure that they should be that price, to be honest. Total under or over two and a half goals. Draw are +230. Stinch, I’m thinking Wolves might be better than Arsenal if they’re allowed to play. But everything tells me this could be nil-nil.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Definitely. I agree with everything you started off with, really. I thought the goal line would’ve been a bit shorter, given how good Wolves have been defensively this season. Immediately, I looked and saw that +120 on Arsenal, and I thought, “Have we gone back 10 years and they’ve re-signed van Persie,” for example. No way, no how, would I be backing Arsenal at those odds.
Mark Stinchcombe:
This is similar to the Burnley-Man United game for me in my approach. I wanted to get Wolves onside, but I look at team news and I think Hwang will be out for Wolves and he’s their second top goal scorer of the season. I thought Arsenal might have a few missing players, as well, but it looks like some of the players that they were set to be missing are going to be back, as well, particularly central midfield. I think they were looking like they might have some absentees there, so I thought they might not be very cohesive.
Mark Stinchcombe:
But I think these two might just cancel each other out, to be honest. I’m leaning towards more of the Wolves data; 16 of their 21 games this season have been under 2.5. By far, they’re the best team in the league, in terms of low scoring games. Their matches average just 1.67 goals per game. They’ve got a second best defense, but they’re just the third word scorers. I think when you look at the underlying data that doesn’t quite reflect, but Raul Jiménez was away last week; they’ve lost [inaudible 00:54:39] to Barcelona. So I think they’re still trying to find their feet a little bit offensively.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think what’s quite good, in that respect, is Bruno Lager has managed to get them up into the top half. They’re sitting in eighth, they’ve got multiple games in hand on teams above them, and a real good chance of progressing further. I’m a little bit disappointed though that they didn’t strengthen in the window themselves, either. Maybe the players they wanted weren’t available or the asking prices were too high. We’re not privy to that information. But I just think Bruno Lager’s doing a really good job, that defense is very well-martialed by Conor Coady. I think he’s set this week with this game to be the sixth highest appearances for Wolves all time, which just goes to show how long he’s been there, and how highly he’s rated. He was converted from a central midfielder into a central defender, so I think he’s got that reading of the game coming from that position.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I just think confidence at Arsenal must be really, really low at the moment. They didn’t strengthen in January. They had the whole saga with losing Aubameyang, which I think was a shocking piece of business, really. They spent 70 million euros on him four years ago and then allowed him to leave on a free transfer with no replacement. Just really, really bad business. Looks as though the same thing might happen to Lacazette, and Nketiah, his contract’s expiring at the end of the season and looks like he might leave as well. They’re not getting into the Champion’s League, or Europa League, they’re not getting that finances. Got knocked out of the cup by Forest, got knocked out of the cup by Liverpool, a Liverpool team that was weakened without Salah and Mane, and Arsenal were the ones that were heading into that tie on a high, because they’d got the new Anfield with 10 men for the majority of the game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And then you think, perfect game for them to get back on track would be Burnley at home. Well, a stubborn Burnley team kept them to a nil-nil, and they failed to score in the last four games now. I think I mentioned Lacazette, but I’m not sure if he’s getting past his peak or whether he’s struggling because he’s not getting the creativity behind him working.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So I’m going for under two and a half goals, at -145. I looked at going for under 2.25, but there was only a slight price increase, and I just thought, “I really want get paid if there’s two goals,” and if there was two goals on the other bet, I’d only get half winnings. So maybe being slightly greedy, I just think I see a low scoring game, so I’m fully prepared now for a [inaudible 00:57:12] Arsenal win.
Flash:
No. There’s no chance of it. Honestly, I can’t see anything. I just looked at draw half time, which is -105. If you went with and you are happy with a draw and you went with draw Arsenal at +450, or draw Wolves is 600. Mark O’Haire, I can’t see anything other than a draw here, especially at halftime, and I definitely see under three goals.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. Sorry. Just to interject, Flash, very quickly: Wolves have drawn the most matches in the first half of the season [crosstalk 00:57:44]-
Flash:
And last year, and the year before that. [crosstalk 00:57:48] All [crosstalk 00:57:48] calls come in the last 25 minutes.
Mark Stinchcombe:
They set up to contain and then they go for the goal a bit more expansive after that.
Flash:
They’re the most alert and intelligent footballing team there is. They find a way and they probe, and then once … They’re almost like a snake. They sit there and then they wait and they wait and they waggle their tail, and when the team bites on it, they punish. They’ve done it. That’s how they’ve continued to be a Premier League side. But one thing they’re not is early-on going for … They don’t like to be go behind in games, and I don’t see arsenal … I see it nil-nil half time. I really do. Mark O’Haire, please throw some more light on this game because, for me, it’s got to be the unders.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I was nodding along with most of what you all said, really. I think Wolves are a team … I normally want to go onside of a decent handicap start against the big guns because of everything you’ve all said. I think they’re very capable, they’re very well set up, and they’re very good at frustrating teams.
Mark O’Haire:
But I looked at their record against the top half this season: they played nine games, three wins, one draw, five defeats. But what’s absolutely incredible already out of those nine games, they’ve all ended either one-nil or nil-nil, so no games feature two or more goals against the top half. Obviously, Stinch has already said that their matches overall are averaging 1.67 goals per game, but certainly against the best teams in the league, that average drops even further.
Mark O’Haire:
So it’s a reasonable sample as well, and I think we don’t need to try and second-guess how they’re going to approach this match. But I think it’s been given further cloud, really, by what they did at the weekend in the FA Cup. Bruno Lager was coming out after the game and complaining by his standards, basically saying there’s a lack of options in forward areas since Traore’s sale, and then all the injuries Stinch talked about. [inaudible 00:59:33] had COVID as well recently, so he was unavailable. They’ve had to switch systems and change their tacks, basically, is what he was saying, and those selection issues aren’t going away this midweek. So they’re going to try and contain and counter and see what they can do, but ultimately they’ve score multiple goals just six times the season in the Premier League, all of which came against bottom half teams.
Mark O’Haire:
They’re only considered multiple goals in three games, which is the same as Man City and Chelsea. So elite defense, but not so elite to going forward. I can’t really carry on any further because Stinch has stolen all my stats and numbers. But from an Arsenal perspective, despite all the negatives of failing to score four across all comps, winless in five, since Boxing Day, when they’ve beat Norwich, they’ve actually kept 10 clean sheets in 21 Premier League games this season, and that’s one thing we’ve not really associated with Arsenal in recent years. Arteta has definitely got them better defensively, but just still struggling to find that balance right now, so I think it’s got unders all over this one.
Flash:
It’s under two and half; it’s now -150. It’s moving. It’s almost like it’s live betting. It just stinks of maybe Arsenal getting a late goal. It’s massive, that +450 of draw half time. Draw half time -105 should be the way to go. If you think that the under two and a half at -150 is just a little bit too steep.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks and then it’s time for the Q and A. It’s under two and a half at -145 for Stinch. It’s moving in the opposite direction, as well. But, again, we don’t see anything other than basically a dull game and if you wanted to have a few shekels on nil-nil, I wouldn’t put anyone off. I really wouldn’t. Or no goal scorer. Go in no goal scorer, because if it’s nil-nil, when someone scores an own goal, you still get the no goal-scorer and the nil-nil still pays your way.
Flash:
Okay. So it’s question and answer time, and then we’ll do the official pick. So here we go. First of all, Steve Gregory is writing War and Peace here. It’s, “Lampard’s Chelsea created pure chaos up front, but lacked defensive structure. A good time to keep an eye on both teams to score props for the next few Everton games.” I smashed Everton on the weekend because they were against Brentford. Let me tell you now: as a performance, I would give them, Mark O’Haire, five out of 10. What are your thoughts on Everton and how long is it going to take for him to get it right? Yes, they won four-one, but if ever a performance or a score line masqueraded the performance, then that was it.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. Such an underwhelming appointment, I think, from Everton. I think there’s many candidates out there who possibly would be better suited for that role. But I agree with the question, actually, that Everton at the moment going forward will be really an interesting one to follow for the goals-based bets because he’s right, Chelsea were pretty hectic under Lampart going forward and defensively a bit of a shambles. We saw that change almost instantaneously under Thomas Tuchel.I was very interested to see what shape and what system he performed at the weekend of Everton. I think it was about over 333, basically, a bit of a wing-backs system, still struggling to get key players back on the field.
Mark O’Haire:
I saw Ben Godfrey went off injured and he’ll be missing midweek, as well. They’re going against away to Newcastle, which I think is an interesting game and both teams to score was hopefully on my short list. The price is a bit too short for where I wanted it, but certainly Newcastle at St. James’ Park with their new players on the field will fancy their chances against an Everton team who don’t often convince themselves on the road. So I think it’s a goal-heavy game, and I think Everton matches going forward could be quite fun to follow, too. So, yeah: I agree.
Flash:
Okay. Then Darren Williams, he says, “Everton versus Newcastle.” There is no such thing as Everton versus Newcastle this week, Darren. It’s Newcastle versus Everton, which is completely different to Everton versus Newcastle because, Stinch, Newcastle versus Everton. I watched Everton so, so closely at weekend because they were one of my favorites. [inaudible 01:03:22] got away with it. I was so close to going Newcastle to win this game, you know.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah. I looked at the fixtures before I looked at the odds and I thought in my head, “How would I process?”I thought I might process 50/50, or maybe Everton’s slight favorite. I’m I’m not that impressed with Newcastle’s chance of [inaudible 01:03:41], particularly in the attacking box with the signing of Chris Wood. They’re still missing Callum Wilson. But having said that, Calvert-Lewin’s a doubt as well, so that’s maybe … I was surprised again that the overs is the underdog. So overs is -105, but unders is the favorite at -115. I thought that might be the other way around, but that probably explains why, because potentially both teams’ main goal scorers are missing. That’s the only reason for me leaving it, I think. But I think if we see goals, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think the guy in the chat makes a great observation and that’s something that maybe we can take advantage of when Calvert-Lewin’s back fit and while the odds are still suggesting that Everton are struggling going forward, because the odds are probably based on Everton this season as a whole, when we know that Calvert-Lewin’s missed 50% or I think maybe more than 50% of those games. We just know he’s a great guy between the sticks, isn’t he. We don’t want him doing the work in the channels. We leave that to Richarlison, Demarai Gray, Townsend, et cetera, but Calvert-Lewin between the sticks and the 18 yard box, he’s lethal, really. Got fantastic records since [inaudible 01:05:03] moved him into that central lone striker position. Just another one where it’s a bit annoying. I would like to jump on board with overs, but just the fact that no Wilson in there, and maybe no Calvert-Lewin is the only reason that puts me off.
Flash:
Yeah. Maybe one-one. Maybe the draw at +245. You can’t go near these two sides and I’m telling you now, you can’t go near Everton. They got away with absolute murder at the weekend. Okay. So no more Q and A. Remember you’ll be joining us again on Thursday. Let me take you back to the beginning.
Flash:
If you liked this video, and why wouldn’t you, please subscribe. Get us closer to 4000. We are closing in more and more, closer and closer, every single day, but ring the bell. Ring the bell means you’ll never miss any content again, and we have everything.
Flash:
But it’s Superbowl weekend. We’ve got NCAAB. We’ve got NHL. We’ve got MLB coming up very, very soon. We’ll have golf, tennis, horse racing, and it’s world cup year. Champions League next Monday, your Open League next Tuesday … You’re not going to have to leave your house. Just put feet up, cup of tea, biscuit, and you can listen to my experts.
Flash:
So, Mark O’Haire, let’s eat into this deficit. Stinch, same as you; let’s get this total up where it should be, but to everyone in the chat, thumbs up on the way out. At the moment, I’m just under 50%. Here’s the official pick. I’m liking my Palace money line. Liverpool, both teams to score at +140 jumps off the page and Wolves-Arsenal under 2.5 should just be an absolute gimme, -145, moving in the object direction, so make sure you get on that. I can see that definitely being a draw at half time at -105. So, Stinch, Mark O’Haire, have a great couple of days. I’ll see you all again on Thursday, same time, same place. From everyone at BetUS, you take care and don’t forget to check our soccer odds.
