Premier League Picks Matchday 38 Odds,...
May 22, 2025
Premier League Picks Matchday 37 Odds,...
May 15, 2025
Premier League Picks Matchday 36 :...
May 08, 2025
Premier League Picks Matchday 35, Odds,...
May 01, 2025
Premier League Picks Matchday 34, Odds,...
Apr 24, 2025
Premier League Picks Matchday 33, Odds,...
Apr 16, 2025
The Premier League Show has reached Matchday 26. With it, we have a Manchester City team that is still going strong, leading the standings by nine point over its competitor Liverpool. Liverpool is now leading the race for second place, having pulled away by seven points from Chelsea, who have massively reduced its quality of play. The clubs sitting between the fourth and eighth plays of the table are definitely feeling the pressure.
(singing)
Welcome to BetUS, I’m Flash. It’s Premier League, it’s Matchday 26. It’s been an absolutely awful couple of weeks for your presenter, gone oh and four, oh and four. Yeah, that was hard luck stories along the way, but it still measures up to oh and eight. Now we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so please subscribe. Get us closer to 4,000, only 150 to go. More importantly at the moment is to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again, across any of the sports, across any of the channels. Now I have award-winning owner of We Love Betting in Mark O’Haire, and European odds compiler, and all round digger of value and stats, joining me today. I don’t know why I say join me, because they’re always here. They’re like the fixture and fittings, but it’s just a little tick that I have. Gentlemen been very, very tough and I don’t see it getting any easier this week. Yet we still found seven games.
Yeah. I mean, we caveated the last two shows, it’s a tough card and it really has been a tough card, I think for all three of us, really. Stinch has been banging in the winners, but unfortunately, things haven’t progressed massively for him. Certainly I’ve had similar issues as well, where I think I’ve found a few gems and bounce of a ball here or there, and you end up on the wrong side of things. Fingers crossed, things start to turn, certainly for me. I’m in a poor position now as we head for home, but Flash, you still got plenty of credit in the bank. You’re still miles clear of the rest of us, so don’t know what you’re worrying about, to be honest.
Well, I’m worrying because I like halved my profit, and Stinch, you know that’s never a good thing. Especially when I had Man City in under three and half goals, they three-nil up in the 90th minute, and then they get a penalty, [inaudible 00:02:27]… He misses the penalty and scores. I’m like, “Oh my God, nothing more could have gone wrong over the last two weeks.”
Yeah. I feel like the knowledge and selections were on track, but it’s all out of our hands as soon as that whistle goes on the pitch. 22 humans, plus the referees, plus the substitutions, plus VAR at times can go against us. But I’m not trying to make excuses, I think. I say nobody’s forced to follow any of the bets, or forced to follow any of the selections. I think the knowledge is pretty good. Even if you don’t use that knowledge for this set of matches, it can lend itself to future game weeks and that. It would just be nice if the actual figures represented what we feel would be positive theoretical figures, shall I say? I mean, in my case, I still have my first banker of the season in Brentford and Palace. Brentford won one clean sheet in 18 against Palace that have had, I think, 1 in 12, and it finishes nil-nil. In my mind, you can’t make that kind of thing up.
No you can’t. Then Everton coming out the traps like… That’s the other thing I think we’ve got to take into account and we’ve got to share with everyone, the desperation stakes have hit home very, very early with the likes of Everton and Newcastle, and it’s home games. I was so close to fading Everton this week away from home, but obviously Southampton, it’s a double whammy for me to get done if Everton go and win. I’ve had to leave it alone, but I still want to take Everton… I still want to fade them away from home when I get the right spot. Maybe at home now though, I’m going to have to look to either leave it or be with them. Let’s have a little look at the records. By the way, I’m not too well so please bear with me, if my concentration levels are not great. 7.64… No, don’t like looking at it. Total minus 5.54.
There’s the big one for me now. Come on, let’s get that total into positive territory. Mark, 8.8. Well, get that down to five and then we are running in the home straight. There will be a Q and A at the end, prior to the official pick. Please get yourselves in the chat, give us your leans, give us your bankers, and any other bets that you’re going to have. Look at that, the producer’s on me already. First game is West Ham versus Newcastle. West Ham, minus 145. Newcastle, a massive plus 450, won the last three games. Draw is at plus 270. Under-over is at two and a half. With the over, Mark O’Haire, being at minus 125.
Yeah. Interesting game there. I’m quite looking forward to it. It’s the first game on the card on Saturday. Newcastle team, everyone’s talking up at the moment. Three wins on the spin, five unbeaten since Christmas. Obviously now in a much stronger position to survive, but yeah, I’m not ready to just say Newcastle are a completely different team and need to be treated as such. Because I think they have had a degree of fortune along the way. I felt they broke their luck at times the way at Leeds. When winning, they were dominant against a really poor Everton team in St. James’ Park that time. Then obviously I thought they defended reasonably well against Aston Villa, but I don’t think Villa really created or did anything intricate or expansive to really open them up. It was just balls into the box.
If I’m really nitpicking, three of Newcastle’s five goals during that winning streak came from direct free kicks, which is a real rarity actually. Obviously the confidence that brings with those wins, well, will supersede probably that, but they’re coming into this game without Trippier, without Manquillo as well. We know Targett will come back into the team, but they’ll have to reshuffle defensively a little bit. I think Trippier is a big loss already. We’ve seen his impact. Yeah, I mean, I’m not ready to say Newcastle are a different team and really to support them in a match like this, because West Ham have been quite hard to assess themselves, a little bit erratic, outplayed by that scratch Leeds team here at home not so long ago. Fumbled their way past Watford, needed a last minute goal at Leicester last weekend as well.
Yeah, it’s almost one of those games where I don’t want to support either team and I think goals would probably be the way in which I would go about my business here. Both teams are scored at quite a short price, but West Ham have kept just six clean sheets all season, which is pretty poor for a team chasing the Champions League. Nine of the 12 at the London Stadium have seen both teams scoring. As we know, Newcastle clean sheets are a rarity too, especially away from home. Actually, if you look at the goal scoring records of both teams, West Ham have scored in every home game so far this season, and Newcastle has scored in 18 of 23 in the Premier League, which is really encouraging for a team battling against relegation. Yeah, I mean over two and a half goals wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world, but I’m happy to leave this alone.
Yeah. I couldn’t go on a side to be honest, and Stinch, over two and a half goals, minus 125. I found this week’s card really, really tough on the money line. Then if you did want to go into money line, I couldn’t see any value. So I’ve just gone with the goals.
Yeah. I think kind of agree with Mark here. I don’t really want to get on board with either side. I feel like Trippier, despite the fact he’s only arrived back, you look at the influence of fallbacks in the Premier League in the modern game, definitely think of Cancelo at City, Alexander-Arnold at Liverpool, they are getting a bigger and bigger influence. You’ve already seen Trippier in terms of scoring the two free kicks. There’s lots of statistics out there, about the amount of crosses now Newcastle putting into the box, not just from open play, but from these on corners as well. I think it’s going to be a big, big miss, but I wouldn’t want to get involved with West Ham at quite decent odds on seven matches this season. They’ve been odds on and they’ve failed to win five of those. I feel like maybe they don’t give some of their opponents enough respect perhaps.
Goals would be would want to get involved, but I just felt as though overs being favorite it was a little bit unfair considering I say I think Newcastle may struggle to score them, which kind of sounds a bit strange when I’m only talking about a right back. But Chris Wood doesn’t look elite enough to me. He’s only scored three goals all season. So for Newcastle to fork out 25 million definitely seems over the top. I don’t think Callum Wilson is back for a couple weeks, at least, as yet. Yeah, I’m happy to leave this one alone, to be honest.
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I think I’m on my own with it. I am, it’s over 2.5 at minus 125, desperate, desperate to break the losing run. Okay. Let’s move on to the second game, because I think that’s going to be a game that I’m going to be interested in as well. It’s Aston Villa versus Watford. Aston Villa minus 170, minus one is plus 105, Watford at plus 475. The under-over is at two and a half with it being basically a Peckham at minus 110. The draw is at 320. Stinch, I could see this basically just being a straight two-nil, and maybe Watford not scoring at plus 120.
Yeah, definitely. I mean, Roy Hodgson has been in charge for three games now and still yet to find the back of the net for Watford. I mean, I think he’s gone in there first and foremost to make them more difficult to beat, which is illustrated by the school lines, two-nil defeat by Brighton, one-nil defeat by West Ham, and nil-nil with Burnley. But at this stage of the season, and I’m not sure it draws… Especially against teams outside of the top six, is going to be what Watford requires, to be honest. If they’d have beaten Burnley, that would’ve given them a bit of breathing space in terms of them against Burnley. We’ve seen obviously Newcastle win a couple of games, so it kind of feels to me at the moment, the bottom three of Watford, Norwich, and Burnley, is going to be the bottom three that go down, unless something drastic change.
We’ve just seen the boost that Lampard’s given to Everton, just in terms of scoring goals. Don’t think they’d necessarily shored things up. But if you’re scoring two or three goals, it’s certainly harder to lose football matches. Yeah, Watford needs to change something, change something quick, but I’m not sure against Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa is where they’re going to have success. Albeit, I think the odds kind of reflect that, don’t they? At minus 170, but at this point with Villa, in recent weeks failed to find the back of the net against Newcastle. Albeit obviously a very tight offside decision against the Leeds team without Patrick Bamford, I would expected Villa to have seen them off. But we know they conceded three. We’ve spoken a lot about Aston Villa defensively are weak. Yeah, I think anybody taking Aston Villa minus 170 and thinking, “I know, I’ll put it in a parlay, or something,” that can be like the first one I can get ticked off, might be a little bit risky.
Yeah. I think they win the game Mark O’Haire? Only because of the way that Watford are going to sit back, try and hold onto a position. The only number I could actually find here was the minus one at plus 105, as if I know… Well, I think in my own mind that Villa are going to win this game. So I know they’re going to need the two-nil.
Yeah. I’m similar to Stinch actually. I’ve been a little bit disappointed of Aston Villa lately. I thought they were quite aimless in the way in which they went about their business against Newcastle last weekend. I said it on the Newcastle game, just lots of balls into the box, which is effectively Newcastle’s defensive strength now with Dan Burn there, and not a huge amount of subtlety or intricate passing and movement from what is quite a talented forward line they got there as well. Yeah, against Leeds, they allowed themselves to be drawn into that Helter Skelter game. Then actually before the international break, they won at Everton, but they’re under a huge amount of pressure in that match. There’s levels of improvement to be made, I think, from Aston Villa, especially when you consider the money spent and the players at their disposal. Obviously Steven Gerrard’s reputation too.
We’ll see, but they do tend to come good in dispatch. They’ve won seven, drawn two, lost just three against teams in ninth and below. I think they’re rightfully heavy favorites to win this match. But yeah, I mean, it’s the Watford team, it’s not offering a lot going forward, not just under Roy Hodgson, but further back it’s one goal in the last six Premier League games, which is desperately poor for a team trying to survive. Actually if you look at their equity against teams outside of the bottom four, who I think we’ve all agreed will be probably around the bottom four come the end of the season, they’ve lost 13 of 17. A huge amount of improvement required there, but they do have talent in forward areas if Hodgson would release the shackles. Which I think he has to do at some point because they need points, one point here and there isn’t going to do enough. Yeah, tricky game, so I was quite happy to just leave it alone entirely. But I wouldn’t be too surprised if Villa win this by a goal or two.
Yeah. Nice. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I’ve gone with the home side. I think they’re a completely different animal at home, especially when the team sit back and wait to be punched. Aston Villa minus one at plus 105. I know there’s a few people in the chat that likes that one as well. Okay, move on to the next game and I was a bit… I mean, I worried about this game because it’s Brighton and versus Burnley. Brighton at a minus 135. I didn’t really want to get involved in the minus 135, unless I was sticking it in the parlay. Burnley at plus 395. The drawer is at plus 270, the under-over is at two and a half, with the… Well, obviously plus 130 for the over, but Brighton plus 100 to score twice. Mark O’Haire, Brighton score twice in this game?
I don’t know, to be honest. This is a horrible game.
It is a horrible game.
I thought it’s got a draw written all over it. We’ve got the two League specialists for draws meeting together. Together, their records so far this season, they’ve drawn 23 of their 45 combined Premier League games. Only 13 of those were settled by a margin of two goals or more, and 32 of those 45 featured under two and a half goals. When the goal expectancy is low, the possibility of the draw comes into play even more. It’s quite a short price for a draw, but I think the numbers indicate why that’s the case. Yeah, I mean, I think only four teams have scored fewer goals that Brighton this season. I’d be quite tentative about backing them to win, or especially at short prices at odds on when they’re not fluent goal scores, regardless of the opposition.
I think Burnley have actually been okay a bit of late, actually. I know they’ve only won once all season, but they’ve actually been competitive in games against Liverpool, Man United, Arsenal. Obviously Weghorst went off injured last week, but we’ve heard today that he’s going to be fine for this, which is a big boost for them. Actually their away record isn’t the worst. But the thing that’s probably worth mentioning as well, weather conditions in the south are going to be pretty chaotic over the weekend, at least from Friday. They’re talking about 30 mile, 40 mile an hour winds, possibly going through to Saturday as well. Obviously Brighton being where it is positioned in the country, it’s probably going to get the brunt of that as well. But I think the worst of it is on Friday, but it’s just something to be aware of come Saturday, because it is windy, blustery. It’s not ideal conditions for football, which probably will suit Burnley.
No, I mean, Burnley just can’t score enough goals, Stinch, and I just thought that this is Brighton scoring twice. Even if it’s two-one, or I couldn’t go under or over because of the two-one. I couldn’t go under… I’m sorry, I couldn’t go over because I couldn’t see Brighton winning two-nil.
I really like the draw here, to be honest. Now we’ve talked about.
True, true.
Just at the odd to honest, at plus 270, consider most of the time you’d be looking… If you felt like it was going to be a low scoring game, you’d expect the draw to be around about plus 200, plus 220. At plus 270, think it looks pretty decent to me. Considering the fact that under two and a half goals is minus 150. The market isn’t expecting a high scoring game. As Mark says, whenever you expect a low scoring game, it automatically brings a draw in. I mean, there’s no way you’d go near Brighton, is there, at that price? They’ve won 7 games out of 24. You could not be backing them at those odds.
What you said, do Brighton score two or more goals? They’ve only scored 25 in 24 games. Again, I wouldn’t be confident against the Burnley team that we know is… They’re not that bad defensively at all, Burnley. They’ve only conceded 29 in 21 games this season themselves. We’ve just seen them recently do very well defensively against both Liverpool and Man United. They kept Man City to, I think, it was a two-nil defeat early in the season as well. Yeah, I’m expecting pretty much a turgid, horrible game, really. Not really anything too exciting. I think that a draw is a big runner, to be honest. Maybe for them to play a bit more safely, go for the draw at half time. But I say, considering under two and half goals is minus 150, if there is going to be zero, one, or two goals, that means nil-nil and one-one are massive runners. To go from minus 150 to plus 270 is too big a jump for me. I’d be very, very tempted by the draw to be honest.
Yeah. I mean, I was on that line of thinking, but that’s why I went for Brighton to score twice, because I do see there only being like maybe two goals in the game. I [inaudible 00:17:53]. That’s my problem with Burnley, and obviously it still brings in a nil-nil. I get that. Anyway, official picks because Brighton are a better side than what their numbers have been producing. We say they’ve only won 7 in 23, but recently in the last seven or eight weeks, they’ve been one of the better sides in the country, home or away. Brighton, team two were over 1.5 at plus 100. Stinch does like the draw, and so does Mark O’Haire. Moving on, had to leave this game alone. Didn’t want to, didn’t not want to. I wanted to go with the home side. Southampton plus 100, Everton plus 270, the draw a plus 270. There’s been a few draws in this fixture over the years. Over two and a half goals is at minus 120, and under two and a half are plus 100. Southampton score twice is minus 110, Everton score twice is plus 190. Stinch?
Yeah, I think one of viewers posed a good question couple weeks back, I think when Everton took on Newcastle. He said, “Oh, the trend with Lampard at Chelsea was, they played quite open, but they weren’t too fussed about keeping the door at the back closed. So is eight overs the right path to go down?” Just kept that in the back of my head really, and think now having seen what they did against Newcastle, the fact they conceded tons of shots and lost three one. Then watched them at home to Leeds where it was a pretty open game, even though the scoreline suggests Everton won three-nil and it was a comfortable victory. Leeds did have some chances themselves so I think-
Well, they hit the ball twice.
Yeah. That’s what I mean. I think, if those go in, obviously our bets also win because we’re on both teams to score an over. I think we’re on the right lines again. Yeah. I think automatically heading into Everton games, you just think of overs to be honest. But having said all of that, again, I just thought overs was a little bit short on this occasion at minus 120. Would’ve preferred it maybe to be 50/50 for me to get involved. Again, I’m only going off two games under Lampard. It’s a very small sample size, so I just want to see a little bit more really. Southampton, can’t seem to get them right to honest. I couldn’t be back in the plus 100 though, themselves. They’ve only won 6 out 24, you mentioned about being draw specialists. They’ve drawn nearly half their games this season with 11.
Again, I just want to watch this, see what happens, see what the underlying stats say, and then take it forward into the coming weeks really. I definitely think getting Everton on side in games involving goals is going to be the way to go as the viewer alluded to last week. I mean, they’ve got Man City at home next week, so maybe not that game. Then it’s Spurs and Wolves. So two more negative teams. Maybe we have to wait a few more weeks until they go away to Watford. But by that time, the price actually might have moved even more in our favor because I don’t expect them to register too many goals against some of those teams. Yeah, it’s about picking your right spots and I’ve decided to leave it alone this week, and hopefully… Even if it does go overs, and I’ve proved right but don’t get paid, I still think it’s sometimes best to be cautious if you only going off the back of two games. We’re gamblers, but I’d say we’re gamblers with… We’re trying to use knowledge and insight, not just wildly throwing our cash about.
Yeah, if you’re going to go for Everton, you’ve taken a wild leap of faith because it was their worst away performance only two weeks ago. Then their best home performance a week ago. Now they go to Southampton… Definitely a tough and well-organized unit, Mark O’Haire. But you could see this turned into a basketball match if the old Frank Lampard’s teams rear their ugly head. I couldn’t go near the money lines though, not for love nor money.
No, me neither. I like Southampton. I think they’re obviously playing some good football at the moment, but yeah, not for me at that price. Goals were the angle for me, over two and a half goals, I think minus 120. I’m happy to take that. The League average is 2.78 goals per game, which is bang in line with Southampton’s average goals per game. Everton’s matches averaging three goals per game, which is quite surprising when you consider Rafa Benitez with the head coach the majority of the season, and Lampard’s only been there for two matches. But as Stinch was talking about, we know exactly from his past experience at Darby and Chelsea, what he’s all about. We know from his press conference, after his appointment, he was very much talking about playing much more attacking football, entertaining football. That was a priority really.
I think we saw a taste of that last week against Leeds with 21 shots, a very dominant performance from start to finish. More importantly for them, they got Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin leading the line again in a front two. They looked very dangerous, so I fully expect them to get on the score sheet at St. Mary’s. I know their away record is rotten, but I think the confidence boost in that performance from last week, plus the return of Calvert-Lewin certainly aids them. But they still are without Mina, Godfrey, and [Tekore 00:22:53], which weakens that spine. I think Southampton have been very impressive of late, just full of admiration really for Ralph Hasenhüttl and the job he’s doing this season, considering the circumstances. Southampton is scoring goals quite regularly.
They’ve only failed to score twice in the Premier League since September. That was away at Arsenal and away at Liverpool, but they actually failed to keep a clean sheet since November’s international break. 11 of their last 13 in the Premier League have seen both teams score, including the last eight. If you look at these two teams, look at their respective home and away records, both teams to score has hit in 7 of 11. That’s 60, 65% or so. Yeah, I think, if both teams are scoring, the chances of over two and a half goals copping as well is pretty strong really. I think we’ve got two teams here in a decent head space playing good football, confident, and will see this match as a winnable opportunity as well. Happy to go the extra mile and take over two and a half goals. Very tempted to go over to and half and BTTS, but I think that’s [crosstalk 00:23:54] on.
I know, but the over two and a half… Because Southampton could go and win for these three or four-nil.
They could. Yeah. I’ve been burned back in the over two and a half from-
Because after [crosstalk 00:24:01]. Yes.
… BTTS over four of the last five times to put up. The over seems to cop without the BTTS, so I’ll just keep it simple this time.
Yeah. I don’t blame you. Let’s have a little look at Mark’s official pick please. It’s over two and a half goals at minus 120. Looks like we’re all steering towards goals this week rather than money lines. It’s over two and a half goals minus 120, Southampton versus Everton. Let’s move on to the next few teams, and big teams they are at that, because it’s Man City versus Tottenham. Man City at minus 360, Tottenham plus 1,000. Over or under three goals being minus 105. The under at minus 115. Draw is that plus 500. Man City to score three is at plus 110. Mark O’Haire, I’ll come back to you again quickly here. Man City versus Spur… I don’t know if we see three goals in this game.
Yeah, I don’t really either. We’ve got to caveat that with the fact that it’s Man City and they can seem to just do what they want really at the moment. If they want to score three, they’ll score three, which is always a concern when you do appose goals in Man City matches. As we saw midweek, Sporting a couple of fortuitous goals, but some incredible finishes as well from City when Lisbon. That’s the danger really, but they’re in some sensational form at the moment, 19 wins from the last 21 across all competitions. Only Southampton stopping them winning, and Leipzig in a dead rubber in the Champions League. In that time they’ve beaten Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United, and PSG. Their record this season in the matches that really matter against the top eight, seven wins, one draw, and one defeat.
Obviously the defeat came on the opening day in Spurs, but I think any performances on the opening day can be taken with a pinch of salt really. City are the best team on the planet right now. They are the most dominant, best controlling team, limiting chances, creating and converting as well. Yeah, it’s hard not to be with City here, but Spurs just two real horror shows really of late against Southampton and Wolves. Giving up far too many chances, far too many opportunities. The expected goal was against both Saints and Wolves, really quite alarming. Well over four xG. You think about it, Chelsea had beaten them quite comfortably three times already this calendar year. Six defeats in nine against teams that are above them in the table. Then you got Antonio Conte doing interviews and complaining about all and everything, seemingly every week at the moment. He’s starting to look like José Mourinho with his constant moans and complaints.
I can’t imagine that the mood around the club right now is pretty good. It’s hard to be anything with Spurs here. Yeah, I just think backing City to win the match under three and a half goals, as you say. Will there be three or more goals in this match? Probably not because I think if Spurs have any sense here, they’re going to sit back, contain, counter. It’s worked for them pretty well in the past against Man City, but the majority of those matches came at home. When they do go to the Etihad, they do tend to cover proper. I think they’ve lost 8 of the last 11 Premier League trips at Man City. Yeah, and odds against or about plus 100, I think it was actually, sorry, for Man City to win under three and a half goals was I think fair enough.
Stinch, you’re not worried about Man City coming off European exploits in midweek, and Tottenham having a big run up at this game?
Yeah. I think that’s a good point, but we know that City have got almost two world-class players per positions, and they’re all very apt at rotating in and out. I think the other thing that aids maybe a lower scoring City win, I should say… Although, three-nil would still see the bet win. It’s just the fact that Tottenham… Just I’ve very alarmed by some of their performances, again, especially against Chelsea really. I mean, Chelsea away in the Premier League few weeks ago, Conte lined up with a 4 4 2 which is not the template that he normally uses with fullbacks, playing his wingbacks, but he lined up with 4 4 2, with two holding midfielders and two fullbacks of wingers. Basically he was playing eight defensively minded players, nine if you throw in the goalkeeper, and just the two up front.
I feel he is going to do the same thing here. You could argue against Chelsea kind of worked, a limited Chelsea to only 1.25 expected goals. But Tottenham created very little themselves. Did have a gold disallowed from Harry Kane, but it was ruled out for a foul on Thiago Silva. But yeah, I just think there’s quite a lot of negativity running through Tottenham at the minute. I wasn’t very impressed with their chance of business. I think people were labeling it as a success. But they let Alli, Lo Celso go, [inaudible 00:28:52] and Brian Hill, who are all creative players, and they brought in Bentancur, who’s a defensive midfielder and Kulusevski who, for me, doesn’t really fit into Conte’s 3 4 3 system. It didn’t really seem to line up with his long term plan.
The fact that they’re very reliant on Son and Kane for goals, it’s very difficult. I know Bergwijn scored a couple away at Leicester, but he’s not been first choice at all. If Kane or Son don’t score, it’s very difficult where the goals come from for Spurs. I think Conte’s basically just going to turn up, and as I say, keep eight or nine men behind the ball and try and keep this game low score. The goal line’s set at three. I’ve got the same bet as Mark, Man City winning under 3.5 goals. I feel as I’m stealing a goal, I mentioned it a few times. I mean, if Man City win three-nil and I’ve back the unders, I’ll just get me money back. Whereas if Man City win three-nil, and I’m on City to win in under 3.5 goals, I’m going to get paid out.
If we think it’s going to be a low scoring game, it’s a bit like your bet last week with City and Norwich. If we think it’s going to be a low scoring game, we’re not expecting it to be nil-nil, and nil-nil is the only way that I foresee that the bet loss if it is a low scoring game. Yeah, it’s just trying to… We mentioned that we found it a tough card this week. Just trying to eek out a bit of value, and I just feel as though we eeking out that extra little bit of a goal. But yeah, worth mentioning City are capable of scoring four, five, or six.
Can we see City winning this game two-one?
Yeah. Possibly. The bet would still win there as well.
Yeah. Also, you’re looking at Spurs getting a goal and a half. I mean, I think that was a plus money as well, Spurs plus one and a goals is at plus 105. I’m just wondering, it’s like, “Wow.” I’ve left to leave it anyway. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Go on.
The Tottenham goal line, is it at half? Or is it one and a half?
It’s got to be at half if they’re giving them half, one and a half.
Yeah, it looked like it was one and a half on the graphic. Otherwise, I was going to say, under one and half Tottenham goals is a cracking bet at those odds.
Yeah. Okay. It’s Man City in under three and a half at plus 100 for both my experts. That’d be nice little plus 200 to go in the pot. Let’s move on to the next game because I’ll tell you what, I was so close to going with the home side here. Then I thought, “No, you just can’t risk it. You just cannot risk it at the moment.” Honestly, I’m running so scared. Leeds versus Manchester United, and its Leeds plus 315, not Aston Villa. Manchester United minus 120. The draw is at plus 280. The total is at three with the over being a dog at plus 105. I don’t know what to say about this game because I thought that Leeds were great value at double chance, plus 100. Stinch?
I agree with you, but I must be like a broken record. I’m still waiting for Bamford to come back so I can part with some money on Leeds doing something good at the prices. I mean, Man United have beaten Leeds comfortably, albeit both of those were Old Trafford the last couple of seasons. But in my opinion anyway, this Man United team is still very uncohesive, like you couldn’t trust them at all with your money, especially at odds on. It seems far too short to me. I think they should be more around the even money mark, because if they try and attack this Leeds, I think Leeds could easily hit them on the brake. Dan James, with a point to prove. Patrick… Not Patrick, sorry. Raphinha as well, he’s obviously too good, I would probably say for Leeds now.
Under Rangnick, United are just, I say… I know in some games have created a lot of chances and failed to convert, but it’s been in spells. For me, they’re still don’t look as though they’re capable of dominating a game for long periods and drowning the life out the opposition, going a couple of goals up and then just controlling the game to cruise to victory. I think this is very tricky. I mean, normally with the Leeds last few weeks have gone for the Old, both teams are scoring an over two and a half. But again, I could see this being maybe one-one or something, even though the goal line is set at three. I just think with Man United, you don’t really know what you’re going to get.
You know they’ve got world-class players, and you know the players within that team have performed elsewhere. Ronaldo, Jadon Sancho, case in point. I mean, Jadon Sancho can’t even get in the team at the moment, which is mad as somebody that watches and follows the Bundesliga. Yeah, I want to oppose both teams here. Talking myself into it, maybe under three goals. But again, as I say, games between these two teams have been quite goal heavy. Although last season Elland Road, it was a bit of a dance grip and finished nil-nil. Maybe if I was forced into a bet, I would take the unders with only four goals seeing my better lose.
Yeah, Mark O’Haire, I just couldn’t… I wanted to go with Leeds. I wanted to go with Leeds double chance. Then I thought, “No, my luck, if this is the time that Man United click.” Because remember, this is a really, really hot bed of a game.
Yeah. I think I’m going to be the lone wolf here, but I’m quite pro Man United in this match. Quite happy to get them on side. I think the price is more than reasonable. It’s a reasonable bit bigger than it were last year Elland Road. I know the game ended nil-nil, but I think this matchup suits United, and I think Leeds defensively… I think that’s going to be their downfall, their Achilles heel has been from the majority of their life in the Premier League. They have only registered five Premier League wins all season. They have been improved in this calendar year, of course, but so inconsistent in their performance levels.
You always have to have asterisks against their season because of the injuries. But Stuart Dallas is the latest to be missing. I think he’s a really influential player, very versatile. Junior Firpo comes back into the team this weekend, but he’s a downgrade for sure. Still no Bamford, Phillips, or Cooper. You’re effectively missing four of your best players there. I think stylistically, as I said, they tend to get found out when playing the elite teams of the League. If you look at their record this season against the top half, eight defeats, two draws, and one win. They’ve conceded twice more in eight of their nine games against the top eight, who are basically the breakaway top eight as well. It’s not just actual goals either. If you drill into the data, it does paint quite an uncomfortable picture for Leeds in terms of chance it’s conceded. You think back to last year as well, something similar occurred, they won 45 of their 59 points against the bottom half. Yeah, I think the price is perfectly fine on United.
I think they’ve gone about their business, is been quite mundane, their performances since Oscar left. But they are picking up wins and results, have only lost once since he’s departed. They’ve only failed to score once. They’ve only conceded two or more goals twice in the Premier League. Their away record in the Premier League, going back to the beginning of last season, is very strong. Just two defeats. They’ve scored in every away game this season, and they’re up against the Leeds defensive that’s conceded 26 in the last nine in the Premier League. Eight of those nine going over two and a half goals as well. Yeah, I think United definitely score in this game. I’d be surprised if they lost, and I think United to win in over one and a half goals, effectively rolling out the one-nil away win. That gives us a nice boost to around plus 120. Yeah. I’m pro United. Happy to be the lone wolf in that regard.
Well, yeah. But you’re not the lone wolf because you’re the only person having a bet. There’s no one opposing you here. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I couldn’t go near it. I had to sit on the fence. You’re not sitting on the fence. You’re going with Man United to win in over one and a half at plus 120. My only downside to that is that you could easily see it being a one-nil Man United win. I thought that you may have gone with Man United to win two-nil. Because last time Man United scored twice, away from home, with both teams scoring. It was like… I cannot remember. I cannot remember.
It’s Leeds. Leeds was [crosstalk 00:36:58] opportunity.
Was it Brentford? Was it Brentford? Did they score two or three away at Brentford?
Yeah.
Okay. The final game is another game that I found really, really difficult, because Wolves versus Leicester. Wolves at plus 135. Leicester plus 225. I think Wolves’ a different class to these. Over two and a half goals-
Is it because they got the Villa badge?
What’s that mate? Oh, no-
You said they were a different class. Is that because they got a different badge?
I know the Wolves and the Villa badge. Honestly, I think the graphics lads just had an absolute nightmare. But I think we all have them. You know how tired I am? I didn’t even notice. It’s Wolves at plus 135. Leicester at plus 225. Wolves to score twice is at plus 155. I can see that happening. Mark O’Haire, what do you fancy here? Wolves versus Leicester, maybe Wolves scoring twice at plus 155. I may well have talked myself into that.
Yeah. It’s a nice price actually. I’d be pro Wolves for sure, and I’m pro goals as well. It feels like a weekly segment on the show now when we talk about goals in Leicester games, and I’m inclined to think that the trends are the right way to go alongside again this week. Because I know Wolves have got one of the best defenses in the division, but Leicester away games, when they’re away from the KP tend to be pretty bonkers. Very goal heavy, 8 of 10 away have gone over two and a half. All 10 have produced a minimum of two goals. 9 of those 10 have seen both teams scoring with an average of 3.8 goals per game. We know all about their ability to go down the final third and create and convert. I think they’ve got more attacking quality than the majority of the teams in the Premier Leagues, som real talented players there. But they’re just an absolute disaster from a defensive perspective.
The inability to defense, that piece is a huge concern against a physical Wolves team who’ve got players who can deliver superbly from dead ball situations. But not just that, it’s just a ramshackle really, and more injuries affecting the team. James Justin’s missing now as well. They’ve kept three Premier League clean sheets this season. They have scored in all but five of their fixtures so far this season. If you at Wolves’ matches, certainly when they play the lesser likes in the Premier League, and you have to put Leicester in that bracket at the moment, they do tend to be a bit more open. They tend to relax a little bit, open it up and play a bit of football rather than the ultra-organized defensive systems we’ve seen against the top teams. That’s reflected in the goals output. 11 of their 13 games against the top half have ended nil-nil or one-nil. Basically under one and a half goals in 11 or 13.
But look at their record against the bottom half, 8 of 11 have seen at least two goals. At Mullenix there’s been quite a few goals actually in their games against the bottom half too. Yeah, I think there’s a good chance we see at least two goals in this match. Obviously when you bear in mind Leicester’s erratic nature, it’s not a stretch really to expect for at least two goals. The goal line is set two and a half, but if you dig into the alternative markets, you can just drop down slightly to get over two and a quarter goals, which just means if there’s exactly two, when you lose half of our stake, but get paid out if there’s three goals or more. Considering the way Leicester play at the moment, it could be three, four, or five really. Wolves could have a field day.
Stinch, Wolves, money line, or goals?
Goals. Goals, I think. That kind of felt as though… I know obviously most of the season we’re betting on Leicester goals and you think, “Oh, okay. Maybe Wolves is the red herring, the one to avoid.” Because we know how good Wolves have been defensively, but if you look a bit deeper into the numbers, Wolves, their defensive numbers aren’t sustainable. I feel you look at the fact they’ve got the second best defense in the League, but if you look at expected goals against, they’re overachieving by about 12 goals, which is, say completely unsustainable really. José Sá is ranked as like the second best goalkeeper in the division, on one of the post shot expected goals metrics. It’s no surprise that David de Gea is first. He’s saving shots that he shouldn’t really be saving based on average ability, to be honest. So there’s that. I do think that means Leicester should be capable of finding the score sheet. But there’s always say of Leicester games, they could easily lose three-nil here. Wolves could definitely go and score the three. Yeah, I agree with you, was it plus 155 I think?
Yeah.
On Wolves to score two or more? I do think that’s pretty good, but we know that Wolves haven’t been fantastic going forward. I’m just leaning on the fact that, as I say, I don’t believe their defensive statistics are sustainable. I just taking a bit of… Not taking any risks essentially, and sticking with the match goals, because easily could be one of those teams could just go and win three-nil.
So I’m not have to rely on just one of them. But if you wanted to, if you were already taking the goals angle and were happy to throw maybe half a point on the Wolves goals, that could be a good shot as well. But yeah, over two and a half goals is plus 120. You lose a little bit by going for the over 2.25. But I just think that getting that half state back, if there is only two goals, going from plus 120 to minus 120, I think it just long term is the way to do it. The only way the bet will lose in this game if there’s zero or one goals, and Leicester games just aren’t seeing zero or one goals, are they?
No, I’m going to add. I’m definitely going to add the team total over 1.5 at plus 155. I think it’s too big. I think we could even see a two-two draw here. I mean, I’ve got to go with them, just because Leicester away from home, they get shredded. The one thing that you’re going to get with Wolves is controlling of the game and probing passes. I’m adding the Wolves team total over 1.5 at plus 155. The official picks are, let’s have a little look here. We’ve got over two point… Basically over 2.25 at minus 120 for both the experts, and mine is team total over 1.5 at plus 155. Now it’s the Q and A. Please don’t be hanging about, get your Q and A in before we go to the official picks. As I said to you, I’m not feeling too clever so I need you to be firing in these questions. Do Arsenal and Brentford. Arsenal should pump them. I thought it was a very dodgy game that. I thought Brentford and Arsenal, Arsenal not a team to trust, and Brentford you don’t know what you’re going to get either. Mark O’Haire?
I think I’ve talked about Arsenal before in this sense. They do tend to perform when they’re up against bottom half teams at the Emirates, and their record when they’ve been odds on favorites in this spot is really strong traditionally. They tend to do it with minimum fuss as well. If I was getting involved, I’d be looking to Arsenal to win a relatively low scoring game. Potentially chucking in under three and a half goals, or something like that because Brentford at the moment away from home are being pretty tricky, and if they don’t bump their ideas up they could be finding themselves in a relegation battle too.
Yeah, Jack Simpsons, that was his question. Anymore, anymore, anymore? I don’t think there is anymore to be honest. While people decide if they want to ask another question, let’s have a little look at the official picks. Because remember there’s one to be added there, which is the Wolves team total over 1.5. Let’s have a great week. The one that stands out there for me is that Man City to win in under 3.5 from you two boys at plus 100. I see that being maybe two-one, maybe even just a two-nil, and they just go through the motions.
Okay. Let me take these back to the start of the show and I appreciate everything that you do for this show, on the chat, on the guests, and my graphics boys. I would like you to subscribe and get us closer to 4,000. Just 150 to go til we get to 4,000, and also ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again. At the moment, we’ve got so much sport coming up. We’ve got the tennis coming up. We’ve got golf coming up, as well as the NBA and the March Madness NHL, and all the soccer odds, including the Champions League and the Europa League. Okay. Hannah Silvering, I’ll just give her this one because she was so late in. Now, what do you guys think about Palace versus Chelsea? You go first, Mark, Stinch?
I thought Chelsea were a bit of a short price. I think they’re about minus 150. Yeah, they are. They’re minus 150 away at Palace. I just thought off the back of obviously their exertions in the Club World Cup, playing two games in a short space of time, extra time as well. Just thought it might catch up with them. Obviously Chelsea have not been firing in the goals, have they? But I thought if you fancy Chelsea to win, maybe the better bet would be to take Chelsea over 1.5 goals, which is minus 120. Obviously you would lose the Chelsea winning one-nil, but I just thought if you fancy Chelsea, I didn’t think minus 150 to minus 120 was a pretty nice boost. But as I say, the caveat here is, I think Chelsea could be a little bit tired.
We’ve talked about how keen we are on Palace. Again, another draw expert. They’ve only won five games, but at the same time, they’ve only lost 8 of 24. They do seem to be a different beast at Selhurts Park. They’re outplayed by Brentford last week, but we saw what they did against Liverpool. That was almost the perfect game of two halves, wasn’t it? Liverpool started off really well and then Palace came back into it for an hour. So they could catch Chelsea on the hop. Having said all of that, maybe worth a flyer on Palace at minus 150.
That’s why you left it. Exactly. That’s why you left it. The other one is Liverpool versus Norwich. Mark, please don’t… Please, if you take half the time that Stinch took, then I’m going to be going throw myself off the nearest bridge.
I mean, how do you find a bet in such a lopsided betting heat like that? Norwich unlikely to score, but I think the win to nil is minus 140, a bit too short to be interested in that. Probably one for the parlay as a banker.
All right. From everyone at BetUS, have a great weekend. Don’t forget, coming up is LaLiga Show and then the [Sierria 00:47:29] Show, Bundesliga tomorrow. Have a great weekend. May all your bets be winners. From Mark, from Stinch, from myself, from all of the graphics team, you take care.
(singing)
