Premier League Picks Matchday 27 | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Even if the number is wrong and we are wrong, at least we’re on the right side. First, welcome to you Mark O’Haire. I’ve got a praise and a grumble, praise to Liverpool for sentencing a little bit of fear in the opposition, and then they crushed them. And my grumble is definitely with West Ham going to Brighton, and putting in one of the worst performances I’ve seen all season from any team.

Mark O’Haire:

That’s interesting, because I would reserve the praise for Brighton for the phenomenal display in that match. West Ham Great. But I think Brighton made them look appalling because Brighton is so expansive and playing with such ambition and confidence at the minute, and they’re creating catalogs of chances regardless of who they’re playing. They’re really humming at the minute, and there’s suggestion that they could easily gate crash the top four if things continue the way they’re going. I think they’ve won eight in their last 12 games now. And if you look at the Premier League table, they’ve got games in hand over Tottenham Hotspur in fourth place. Obviously Liverpool are three points behind with a game in hand over Spurs as well. But Brighton aren’t too far behind, were they to win those two matches in hand as well. And the way they’re playing at the minute too, they won’t fear anybody.

They’re more than capable of taking points off any team in the Premier League right now too. So I personally don’t see the seagulls getting into the top four, but certainly one to watch. Yeah, so I praise them and probably put my grumble more towards Manchester United rather than Liverpool, the way in which they performed in that second half. People are describing it as a collapse, but it was like watching a bunch of under eights were running around without their dummies. It was embarrassing, to be honest. And yeah, Liverpool center, they scored seven goals from eight shots on target. They were very, very clinical and really put them to the sword and I guess it’s one of those matches where you watch, and you kind of have to wrap your eyes a little bit to see, because it’s pretty historic seeing United get hammered 7-0, particularly by their biggest rivals. So yeah, it was a hell of a weekend in the Premier League.

Flash:

Okay, cue the smile. Stinch, 7-0. Nothing between the two sides for 41 minutes. As you know, I had the draw at half time, and thinking I’m absolutely home and hose here with a draw. Fred switches off. Listen, Cody does what Cody does, and he seems to be getting better and better each week. But the second half, you come out away at Anfield, I’ve obviously played there many, many times. It’s a fearful place, if you let them get ahead of steam up, and then you put in their fierce rivals. Man United had obviously invited them to come and take what they wanted, and they didn’t leave anything behind.

Mark Stinchcombe:

No they didn’t. It was a good return to the Liverpool, we have known for the past, what, four or five years. It can absolutely blow teams away in almost a blink of an eye. They’re playing Bournemouth this weekend, and they beat Bournemouth 9-0, way back in August. So who knows, maybe they can even turn around the tie against Real Madrid. I doubt it but-

Flash:

No, come on.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Maybe it’s the Anfield crowd-

Flash:

You always have to go too far, don’t you?

Mark Stinchcombe:

There’s no point no turning up, if you don’t think your team can overcome a deficit. We all know about Istanbul, in 2005.

Flash:

Oh my God. Mark O’Hare, please give him a shake. Oh yeah, he’s beaten one decent heart, like half performance, they score seven and now he thinks he’s going into the burn about and getting through, and he is bringing… He might as well bring up Bob Paisley from 1978 or so.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think the other thing that actually would like to mention as well is this, Man United have been praised to the hill, almost the entirety of the season. But I think Sunday, just goes to show that they still aren’t with the upper echelons of the top teams in the Premier League and in Europe, forever hearing about are they in a title race? Well no, they’re not in the title race, because they can’t sustain the form and performances that Arsenal and Man City, and in previous seasons Liverpool have been able to do. So, they probably will finish in the top four. So it’d be interesting to see how they perform in the Champions League next season. But I would be opposing them. I think it was last season United at one stage, I think at the beginning of the season when Ronaldo returned, there were single figures to win the Champions League before a ball had even been kicked.

And I think that just gives us basically it from a better, it gives us a fantastic opportunity, because we know we can oppose them. We know their favorites in the Europa League, which as we discussed on Monday’s show, I think is far, far too short. But on the flip side, the other end of the Premier League is really, really exciting. 12 downwards, only six points splits all eight teams. So the relegation battle is really, really heating up, and then we’ve got 13 games to go? Lots and lots of twists and turns to come, I imagine.

Flash:

I love it, because them teams are just below halfway and think they’re safe. They’ve got big guns coming to town this weekend. So it’s one of those where they’re going to have to pick up some points against the other sides, because when they start playing these six, seven pointers and I’ve just gone and exaggerated there with a seven pointer, it’s like, [inaudible 00:06:43]. It really is closing up. We couldn’t be any better for us, by viewing. Little bit trickier for us punting. Let’s have a quick look at the records and no, it’s not great, it’s not great. Kenneth.

Okay. I don’t know what Kenneth’s talking about. Right, okay. 19.85 for me is an absolute joke. Mark O’Haire cannot believe it. Stinch, you’re at 3.79. The total was 25.94. Okay, let’s see into it, because there’s big numbers this weekend, and when we get to the Q&A session at the end, I’ve got a few questions, because there’s some numbers that I’ve not pressed the button on yet, but I want to. Let’s have a little look at the first game. Okay, here we go. Bournemouth +575. Not for me. Thank you. The draws at +390, and Man United it’s owners. Liverpool at -230. Liverpool -1.5, at +125. So Liverpool to win by two goals is plus money. Liverpool to score three, is at +150. Mark O’Haire, could this be a tough game or do we now see Liverpool kick on, because really they’re out of Europe? Obviously, I’m being bold there, but they’re out of Europe. Sorry, Stinch.

Mark Stinchcombe:

[inaudible 00:08:00] shave.

Flash:

So now Liverpool go here, and they continue the fine performance from Anfield last week.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, Liverpool we know are faster period, to Bournemouth, and their top level will blow Bournemouth away, as we saw in reverse. But I guess you can look at the result, when Bournemouth hosted Man City here, not so long ago, and suggested something similar might occur. But I actually thought Bournemouth were a lot better than the results suggested against the Cityzens. Yeah, I think it’s a tricky one, because I’ve said it for a few weeks now, that I think Bournemouth are much better than they were before Christmas time. Before the January transfer window, they signed some real players of quality in the forward areas. They’ve also got a Ukrainian center half, Zabarnyi, who’s not even played yet, who may be available this weekend, which would bolster them defensively too. And obviously they’ll take a huge amount of hurt, but also pride and probably belief that they can go to the Emirates, and give Arsenal a run for their money before falling short.

So that could obviously work in two ways for them. You’d assume, they’ll take the positives from that, because there were plenty of them. What I thought was quite interesting is the tactical approach of Bournemouth, which I think may negate a few of Liverpool strengths. The fact that they’ve very consciously taken the sort of contain and counter approach recently. If you look at their possession figures against Brighton, Newcastle, Wolves, Man city and Arsenal, their most recent five games, they’ve never had more than 34% of the ball. Even playing Wolves and Newcastle. So they’re quite happy to see possession, and then try and pick you off in their counter attack. And as I said, they’ve got players of quality, in forward areas, and that’s the strength of the Premier League financially these days, is a team like Bournemouth, who’ve just come up from the championship, fighting relegation, are able to pick off some really talented players from Europe, because of their big budget.

So, I’m not going to completely dismiss Bournemouth here, there’s no hope here, so I think they’ve obviously got an opportunity. I’m taking the Liverpool game last week against United as a bit of a freak. I don’t think it’s a sign that Liverpool are suddenly back to being their imperialist best, although the signs have been reasonably good, they’ve won four or five in the Premier League, they’re unbeaten in that time. They’ve kept five consecutive clean sheets, Kanouté’s back along side van Dijk. Forward players are fit and available. But also kind of aware that Liverpool probably can continue to play… Can continue their good form as well obviously. But as you mentioned there, for 40 minutes last week, the match was in the balance against United. And before that match, I was kind of picking holes in Liverpool’s form lines from previous weeks as well.

So I’m not willing to just ride that off because Liverpool scored seven goals. That’s as many goals as they’ve managed in their previous eight Premier League games combined. So do you dismiss all those previous matches, because of what we saw last week? Or do you have to mesh the two together? And that’s probably where I’ve come in here. They’ve still only won three away Premier League games all season, so just enough for me to leave it alone. More of an intrigued observer to see what happens here. As I say, I thought Bournemouth were better than the score suggested against Man City. They really could and probably should have beaten Newcastle here, not that long ago either. And very nearly took a point off Arsenal last week. So just wary of them and happy to leave it alone.

Flash:

Yeah. It was a start from Bournemouth at the Emirates last week. They scored in 10 seconds. That’s a dream start. If they don’t get that start, do Arsenal go on? And win comfortably, because it’s one of those that when all of a sudden you’ll won, they’re loud players, they grow, they start having more belief, but they did actually lose and they did actually not really get out of their own half, for maybe the last 30, 35 minutes. For me it’s a Liverpool cruise. I think Liverpool win by two clear goals as does Rick. Liverpool should win by two clear goals. Well let’s hope they do, Stinch because I only see a Liverpool victory here, because I see them only getting points to get back into that top four, and basically putting this season down as, could do better.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I would think so. I think they might have one eye on the midweek game against Real Madrid, that would be my concern. Plus as Mark says, they have only won three Premier League games away from home all season. Thought they were back to their, not best, but their at least top six level, when they went to Crystal Palace, but they sort of huffed and puffed away at Palace, didn’t really create that many opportunities against a team that is badly out of form. I think we’ve praised Bournemouth with quite a lot recently, and rightly so. But I think, their kind of wider world maybe is not willing to accept Bournemouth’s improvements simply because of the results, haven’t been there to back it up. If they’d won at the Emirates, or if they’d taken a point, I think people maybe we’d have given them more credit for their performances against the likes of Newcastle as Mark was speaking about.

So I think the numbers here apprised as if what both teams maximum level is capable of, and we saw obviously what Liverpool’s maximum was against United last Sunday. But this is Liverpool on the road, where they have been weak, I would say. They might have goals that have been conceded in the beginning of the game, and then they have to find a way back. And look, Bournemouth took the lead against Newcastle, they took the lead against Arsenal, so there’s definitely a scope, I think that Bournemouth could find themselves in front, in this game. So I do agree that the -1.5 Liverpool plus money is very attractive. Not often you could bat Liverpool against team bottom of the league, as Bournemouth are, a team that Liverpool enjoyed playing against. They’ve scored three or more goals in five of the last six meetings, and we know how the reverse fixture finished. Albeit now, Bournemouth have recruited a lot of different players, so the lineup I would imagine will be quite different to the one that is set up at Anfield.

But yeah, I just don’t think we can put Liverpool in the Man City bracket, of we know that back in the -1.5 is a good place to go, because I don’t think we can trust indefensively. And I do think they’ll have one eye on Europe next week. Look, they’ve done really well to get themselves back into the top four battle. A lot of teams around them are [inaudible 00:14:19]. Newcastle, haven’t won in five games. Spurs are really treading water I would say. We’ve discussed off-air about their performance against Milan, and I think we might see a further downturn in the Premier League, because there does seem to be some problems behind the scene. So I don’t think Liverpool need to make this a game that they feel as a must win. Obviously they’d like to win, but I don’t think it’s a must win in the grand scheme of things, because I think actually Liverpool, out of the teams I just mentioned now, are favorites to finish in the top four.

Flash:

Okay. For me, it’s Liverpool all the way. I think the numbers tell you this game starts Bournemouth 0, Liverpool 2. So even if you wanted to take a bit of the juice, and just go over Liverpool free hit at -1, could be the way to go. Personally I think they score three, they’ve got too much confidence. And obviously a little pat on the back for Nunez and Gakpo, because they’ve done absolutely brilliantly to actually start coming up to Salah’s level as well. And yeah, plenty energy, plenty confidence, they’ve been walking on there. Liverpool will win for me, and let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because I’ve double dipped. I’ve thought that I’m not going to turn down Liverpool going to Bournemouth. And I’ve got Liverpool -1, that should be at -1.5, at +125. And also I’ve gone four Liverpool, and over 2.5 at +100.

I thought that was a free hit, just in case Liverpool win 2-1, otherwise it’s a 2-0 and I still make money as well. But I’m thinking, it’s 3-0, 3-1 to be honest. Let’s move on to game number two, because this is one of my questions as well. It’s Everton at +170, against Brentford at +175. The numbers are exactly the same, so the draw is obviously tied at +220. Everton has scored twice is +180, Brentford score twice is +185. You try and split these, because we’ve got over two goals at -145, which means, really we are looking at three goals. It’s over 2.5, maybe over 2.25. Stinch, Everton, Brentford, Everton needs something, and they have looked better. But Brentford are one of them sides, if you over attack that plays into their strengths.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, Brentford unbeaten in the last 12 games, going really well I’d say alongside Brighton, as we discussed at the beginning of this show. I think they definitely got one eye on finishing in European positions. Slight cloud over Ivan Toney with… He would probably get banned for his betting.

Flash:

Or I should get banned for mine.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think yours is legal.

Flash:

Now, you are laughing at Mark O’Haire, you’re only a couple of games behind me. I might get a 10 game, you’ll get an eight game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So I think actually it’s kind of spurring on, he’s been a little bit vocal in his criticism of how the investigation’s being handled, and he proved in front of the TV and cameras, he’s still scoring goals, so I think he’s well focused. Everton, I think we expected them to be this sort of Sean Dyche incarceration, essentially. It’s Burnley version two, and we saw that in the opening game against Leeds, I think when they won 1-0. But since then they’ve conceded two goals in the last three matches, so that poorest defense looks as though it’s still a little bit shaky. Sorry, it’s Arsenal they’ve beat in this first game. So I find Everton difficult to work out. They’re like a completely different team at Goodison Park. It’s a bit like Liverpool in a way. The atmosphere there, I think definitely when they’re with the team, is definitely an advantage, but as soon as they go behind, it definitely works against them.

I would like to back over this here. I really, really would. Because as you say, it’s not often we see a Premier League line set at two. But I just imagine that with Everton’s recent defensive issues, that dice is going to be even more pragmatic. Might see them line up with perhaps five at the back, to try and handle Toney and Mbeumo, and then essentially we know Everton don’t score goals really, as the real top goal scorer is Demarai Gray, this season with less than five. So they’ll probably be relying on set pieces. So the smart thinking, I think says a low scoring game, but that’s what the odds are already telling us. So I think no bet and move on.

Flash:

For me it was Everton or nothing, because Everton obviously at home can produce, but playing into Brentford’s hands. I see over two goals here. I’m just looking down, over 2.5. Brentford maybe draw no bet, a lot of people are going to be happy with. But Mark O’Haire, Everton in a mass win situation at +170, and yet I shied away from it.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I think you’re right to do that. I wouldn’t be touching Everton as favorites at home to Brentford. They’re in the bottom three, so Sean Dyche undoubtedly be targeting the home matches, but they’re desperate to get Calvert-Lewin back. We’re unsure whether he will be back this weekend. Obviously if he is, it’s a big bonus for them, because they had to play Demarai Gray as a false nine. Last week, I thought he played pretty well in fairness to him against Forrest, much better than Neal Maupay has, but they still miss Calvert-Lewin’s muscle and might. But they’re just not doing enough from open play. In six matches under Dyche, they’re scored four goals. Only one of them was from open play, and that was Séamus Coleman’s wonder goal against Leeds really. Included their Lampard era, and since the resumption of the Premier League on Boxing Day, six of Everton’s eight goals have come from set piece situations, and it’s just not sustainable really.

And you would assumed that kind of key asset or key characteristic of them is going to be negated, because they’re coming up against one of the best set piece specialists in the division Brentford, who are excellent at defending, as well as attacking dead bull situations. They’re similarly direct uncompromising. They just happen to be a more stable and secure beast, at the minute compared to Everton really, with more of a gold threat too. So I saw them and I thought they can’t be underdogs, I have to make them favorites at Goodison Park. Very tempted to take the pick in there at -105, but I’ve kind of stretched it a bit further. I’m back in Brentford double chance, and under 3.5 goals. We’ve talked about Palace being a quite of a tough nut to crack in the Premier League. Well Brentford are that, but doing it in absolute spades compared to Palace. They’ve lost just once sides outside of the top seven.

They’re unbeaten in 12, which is almost unheard of in the Premier League for a team at Brentford. And if you look at actual defeats in the Premier League this season, Arsenal and Newcastle, they’ve lost the fewest games. Just three all season. The next best is Man City and Brentford, who have lost just four games in the Premier League, all season. Which is incredible really. They scored in all but five Premier League matches. Only four teams have scored in more games in the Premier League. Only Man City and Arsenal have kept more clean sheets from Brentford this season. So you kind of put it all together, I just can’t see them getting beat at Goodison Park. I can see them getting something here, and ultimately 23 of Everton’s 26 games are featured under 3.5 goals. So this selection gets a range of correct scores on side 0-0, 1-1, and then also the 0-1, 0-2, 3-0 and the 2-1 away wins as well. So yeah, quite happy to be pro beat here. Quite happy to have played Everton.

Flash:

Yeah. I just thought this is going to be one crazy game where, from the very first whistle, I think it’s almost going to be like a cup final, or a semi-final atmosphere where Everton cannot leave anything on the Park. My initial impression was, I’m pressing the button at +170, and then I’m like, “Whoa, cool your jets, it looks… Maybe it’s a little bit too much of a trap.” Let’s have a little look at the official pick. Because it’s an in-game parlay for Mark O’Haire, it’s Brentford double chance and under 3.5 at -120. Myself and Stinch have sat on the fence. I think Stinch would be pro Brentford, maybe even pro goals, because obviously the two goals is a market that a blind man in the Premier League says, you’ve got to go over. You get two goals, and especially when teams are as desperate as Everton, and then in teams that are going as well as Brentford.

So I don’t see no 0-0. Worst case scenario is a 1-1, but I think we’ll go over two goals in the game. Let’s move it on to game number three, because this is a little bit like the game before. Leeds at +275, Brighton -105. Brighton -105 on the road looks very, very tricky. The draw is at +270, the goal line Mark O’Haire is set up 2.5. Basically it’s a coin flip over 2.5 at -115. I’m not sure where I’d want to go with this.

Mark O’Haire:

I can. I can just kind of carry on the same stuff we say every week.

Flash:

Yeah, it was like the last game, this wasn’t it?

Mark O’Haire:

Which is, just back over to an off goal that was in the Brighton game, when you’re getting that kind of money. That kind of price -115, yeah I can’t turn that down. We say the same stuff every week. I can understand why people might be a bit skeptic about this one, with Leeds struggling to score. Five blanks in their last seven games and Javi Garcia certainly isn’t Marcello Bielsa or Jesse Marsch, he’s a much more pragmatic head coach, who’s certainly trying to organize that defense, and their matches recently have been a lot tighter. But the beauty of back and overs as we keep saying. [inaudible 00:23:40] matches is, they’re capable of covering themselves, and they’re also capable of losing by that line too. We saw it last week against West Ham, when they absolutely obliterated them.

And we’ve seen it recently, across their last seven games, they’re averaging 2.45 expected goals themselves. They’ve had at least 13 shots in all seven of those matches. The front players are all in fine form, creating opportunities and looking really dangerous, but ultimately defensively too, they’re they’re giving away opportunities. Some teams are taking them, some teams. And I just think Leeds short. No Rodrigo, Bamford is a doubt. But I just think at home, you’re talking about Everton having to kind of turn up, and produce a decent performance at home considering the position they’re in. I think Leeds will absolutely get that, because they’re at Elland Road, they’ll see this as a potentially winnable opportunity for them to get a good result, and move away from their relegation trouble. But ultimately, I think it all just supersedes, because it is Brighton. And if Brighton are pretty chaotic and adventurous, and entertaining at the best of times that is absolutely heightened, whenever they play away from home.

So in eight games away from home under De Zerbi, seven have seen both teams scoring, and six have seen over 3.5 goals, let alone over 2.5. One of the ones that didn’t go over 2.5, as a controversial VAR decision went against them, against Crystal Palace. They get to keep a clean sheet away from home, under De Zerbi. Just one away from home all season. They’ve scored in seven of eight away under De Zerbi. And those eight matches away from home are averaging 4.01 goals. Just a ridiculous total. And just a word on last week, because they were just absolutely incredible. 20 shots, 12 inside the box against West Ham, an xG of 3.7, four different players scored, 12 different players had shots, eight different players created chances, and eight different players had 15 or more touches in the final third of the pitch.

Just such entertaining, exciting football. I don’t see any reason why they will change style or approach, they won’t. It’s De Zerbi’s way to go to home or away playing in the same manner. And I think Leeds will see opportunity. I think Leeds score. I think Brighton absolutely do score, and then suddenly you got an over 2.5 goals, but within range at -115.

Flash:

Yeah, both teams to score and over might be maybe +110, maybe +115. And as I say that, Jack’s saying, “Leeds can’t score. Their frontline is 10 career goals between them.” Yeah, that that’s right. But then obviously Mark O’Haire has just given you the numbers on Brighton, and both teams scoring in games. Stinch, Brighton away at Leeds. Brighton at -105. I can’t get my head round that, just because of the desperation of Leeds. And by the way, we’re not talking about bottom three relegation anymore, it’s the bottom eight in the relegation.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, just going back to the Leeds forward line, I wouldn’t read too much into their forward line. I’d look more at the… Obviously, we just got a two game sample of a new manager, so I wouldn’t dismiss everything that’s happened before, but I wouldn’t rely on it too much. I think we all know long term, I’ve spoken about it regularly that Patrick Bamford is top half premier equality player. I do believe he will, if he can relieve himself of these injury niggles, he will get himself back to somewhere where he was before. You’ve got midfielders in the likes of Jack Harrison, contributing. There’s a challenge, Rodrigo might be back this weekend, and he’s having a bit of a purple patch this season. And look, as Mark said, Brighton haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home under De Zerbi, so it doesn’t really matter who the opposition is at all in my mind.

They’ve been to championship clubs in the cup and conceded goals as well. I think they conceded away at Charlton, in the League Cup before Christmas as well. So it doesn’t really matter who they’re playing against, you just cheer on goals. It’s such an easy bet. 56 goals, in De Zerbi’s 17 games. That’s over 3.25 per game, and we’ve got a line here of 2.5. It was -125 a couple of days ago, now it’s -115. So I’m not sure what’s happened there, but very happy to get paid in a little bit more profit if it does come in. 10 in their last 13 have gone over 2.5. Listen, I don’t think there’s any reason not to take this bet. We’ve been taking it, every week since it’s been available, since it’s been under De Zerbi at this price.

I think our strike rate speaks for itself. So, it’s such an easy bet. And then another bet I’m going for, which again is… I think, I’ve had it three or four times now. It’s not one, but I just believe the price far outweighs the win percentage. It’s solely a match to score. Again, you look at the odds here at Brighton, -105, so they’re minus money to score two or more goals. You look at the players in that front four that they have. So they play 4-2-3-1. They have the lone striker, then they have the three attacking midfielders just behind. You’ve got Danny Welbeck at less than +200. You’ve got Mitoma at +250, and then you’ve got Alexis Mac Allister at +275. Solly March is +500. It doesn’t make sense at all. He should be like, +300. Something similar to those guys.

He’s got five goals in 13 appearances on this right hand side of the attack. Before De Zerbi arrived, he was playing as wing back. So that’s probably what’s keeping the price high. But in this position, he’s just been really, really good. He’s averaging over two shots per game. 1.6 of those are coming inside the penalty area, so he’s getting himself into really good positions. And listen, we should have had a winner on him earlier. I think we backed him with Leicester, he slipped over when the goal was at his mercy. So it’s just going to be a matter of a time before he registers. So just hoping that we get paid out before somebody notices, and cuts his price.

Flash:

Yeah, I went for Brighton at Leicester, and then obviously I then went for West Ham double chance. I just cannot get them right. But at -105 for them to score twice, or you just go, don’t complicate it. Leeds Brighton, over 2.5 at -115. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I fancy, these might will be duplicated with a little add on. Let’s have a look, over 2.5 at -115. Over 2.5 at -115 for Stinch also. And Jesse Marsch, any time score at +500. Why you laughing?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Coming back to his former club. Can you imagine that? Can you imagine?

Flash:

Half unit. Okay. Half unit for Stinch on that +500. So it is to basically win 2.5 Units. Let’s move on to the next game, because I’m really strong on this game. Leicester +275, Chelsea +100. Chelsea did me all sorts of favors, in midweek. Halftime under 3.5 and at +100 are we Leicester just nowhere near where they should be, the drawings at +2 55 do we trust Chelsea Stinch over 2.5 is +100. I think that’s probably a given. I’ll tell you the one I also like, which is a bit strange is less than not to score at +165. I’ve got one Neil toil Chelsea.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I wonder how much that game against Dortmund was taken out of Chelsea. Obviously they had to play for the whole 90 minutes to get through. It wasn’t a case of being in cruise mode at any point, I felt. You mentioned the overs there, but we know that Chelsea have been struggling despite all the money they’ve spent in the forward areas. The last seven games have gone under 2.5 goals, and that’s again some teams they really expected to score at least two in, and then from then on you expect a bit more of a goal heavy game. Leicester, I don’t think we’ve been able to get Leicester right all season. Last season was fantastic regularly betting on their games to be overs. But we’ve spoken about them post World Cup, they’ve been very, very hot and cold. Scoring four against Villa and Spurs in back to back weeks.

But then registering blanks, in the other games. They were favorites away at Southampton last weekend. I was quite disappointed with them, and they lost 1-0, but it could have been more. Southampton missed a penalty, but I didn’t really feel they created much in the final third. So I kind of understand why we’ve got the odds that we have. We know Chelsea have got the talent and the money, but we’re just not seeing it. So the market’s favoring a low scoring game, and yeah, we’ve seen Leicester against the better teams, the likes of Arsenal and Man United in recent weeks and they’ve failed to score. They were unlucky against Man United, but against Arsenal I think they just had one shot on target in the entirety. So very inconsistent, very difficult to trust.

I’m not really sure what to select in the main market. So again, I’m dipping into the players, because when Leicester seemed to play well, it seems to be because of one man being in the team, and that was James Madison. 21 goals since the beginning of the last season. He’s averaging nearly three shots per game. He’s getting himself into really good areas. He’s averaging over one shot per game inside the penalty area. And he’s won it for me a few times at nice prices this season. So he’s available at +450 and we see Leicester at -210 just to score. So that would mean there would be about +180, +190 to score two. So very happy to get on board with Madison again.

Flash:

Is that half unit or one unit?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No, no. Full unit here.

Flash:

Ooh, okay. Leicester +275. Chelsea at +100. Is that Chelsea +100 a trap, Mark O’Haire.

Mark O’Haire:

Could well be. I don’t know, I found this one really tricky. So many inconsistencies about both teams, in terms of the style and the raw numbers, the mentality. It’s just, for me it’s an easy leave, because I’ve just got so many questions. Goals wise, you’ve associated Leicester with goal filled games. [inaudible 00:33:26] up consistently over the last 18 months before that, especially when Madison is playing. He played last week, but [inaudible 00:33:33] says they failed to fire at Southampton. Second successive week, they have failed to have a shot on target. Iheanacho missed a couple of opportunities, Souttar one close late on. They’ve now lost 15 Premier League games this season, only Southampton have lost more. And just when you think they’re kind of pulling through, they slump back into a poor run of form. So really clinical winner Villa, puts the birds to the sword as well.

Scored four goals in back to back games. And since then, it’s four straight defeats across all competitions. And over a 12 month period they’ve earned just 43 points from 38 Premier League games. Just not good enough really. In terms of the goals, only City Arsenal and Spurs, have seen more goals in their games than Leicester this season, but they’re hosting a Chelsea team who have been involved in the fewest goals. In the division just 1.96, and since the 8th of October only two Chelsea matches in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 goals. It’s been pretty dull. And they’ve also been struggling away from Stanford Bridge, win less than 10 across all competitions losing seven of those, and actually they’ve got just four goals in those 10 games as well, which is their worst goal scoring run away from home, since 1993.

So, difficult for me to really trust either team. Obviously the performance in midweek will give them renewed belief, and a bit of a boost. But they did dominate in Germany in the first leg, and then turned up and lost 1-0 at home to Southampton just days later. So, they were far superior to Dortmund in midweek. Hopeful that, that might be the upward trend now we see from Graham Potter’s team. But I don’t always want to oppose, Leicester are a big price, where Madison is fit and available. And then yeah, just bring it straight back to raw numbers. Leicester have won three home Premier League games all season. Chelsea have won, just three away Premier League games all season. So happy to pass this one up.

Flash:

Okay. I thought Chelsea will be at -140. All over Chelsea, let’s have a little look at the official picks. Mudryk can come in, there’s strength of squad. I want him to rotate too much. I want him to give the boys a bit of their… I just want to see the urgency and the importance of playing in the Premier League, because that’s where some of the teams are letting themselves down, because as soon as the Champions League anthem comes on, these players come alive. I’ve gone with Chelsea at over 1.5 goals in the game, at +150. Happy to see maybe Chelsea win 2-0, maybe 2-1, and my James Madison anytime score at +450. That’s a full unit, and I’ve gone double dipping again. So double dipped on Liverpool. I’m double dipping on Chelsea. Money line at +100.

I was going to triple dip, I was going to make this a freestyle banker. But I’m happy to go with Chelsea, just because Leicester I don’t see scoring. And if they do, I see Chelsea scoring two. Let’s move on Mark O’Haire because, it don’t get any easier for the homeside. Crystal Palace +800 Man City cannot slip up now, at -290. So we see Man City winning the game. How many goals do they score, because if they score three, it’s a +160. The draw was redundant for me at +415. So now you’re looking at any anytime goal scorers, whether it be Silva, Haaland, Foden, Grealish, the list is endless, maybe even Gündoğan. I think Gündoğan enjoys playing here. Over 2.5 goals at -130. There’s over 2.5 goals in this game. Mark O’Haire

Mark O’Haire:

I’m not as convinced, just because it’s Crystal Palace involved, and they don’t tend to like getting involved in high scoring games. On Palace, we’ve expressed it now numerous times [inaudible 00:36:53], they are getting dragged into this dog fight winless in 2023. That’s 10 games across all competitions. They’ve now slipped to within six points at the bottom three. But as Stinch alluded to at the start of the show, it’s not just the bottom three, they’re six points to drift off. It’s actually the bottom of the Premier League. Six points drift. It’s kind of getting dicey now for Palace. They’re not showing any signs of life, when other teams have and when other teams have upgraded their coaching department. Patrick Vieira, doesn’t seem to have the ideas to turn things around from this malaise. Saw it very similarly happen with his niece team as well, who became sort of mind numbingly dull towards the end. He didn’t know how to turn it. And eventually got the sack.

So Palace have failed to have a shot on target in the last two games, and he managed three shots at Villa last weekend. Five touches in the box. Vieira said, they’re a bit unlucky. You could say that, VAR offside went against them, own goal, conceded a red card, but ultimately they’ve not been doing enough too often now to win matches. So they’ve won six games against the bottom half, but they get to beat the top half team this season, and the next games come up against City, Brighton and Arsenal, so it could well get worse. If you look at the underlying metrics, they are bottom of the xG form table over the last eight to 12 game splits. No size generated or lower, expected goals figure when you strip out penalties from Palace over the last 12 or 16 games, they’re in the bottom three for xG ratio.

Very, very grim. And now you play a City team who, regardless of how you think they’re playing, just tend to be getting results at the minute, as they did against Newcastle. Took the lead of a great goal from Foden, Newcastle, with a better team and then they score a second goal, and it’s game over. So they got pretty much a full squad available to them. I think Foden’s a doubt. Leipzig of course to come in midweek which will have their full focus on. So I think they’ll be looking to go to Selhurst Park, and get the job done early doors and then move on. But have dropped points three times on their travels this calendar year, but their record away against teams outside the top six tends to be pretty strong. Should have been in Forest, didn’t do so. But, I think City do win this game.

It’s just whether Palace can contribute or not. So I was considering Man City to win on under 3.5 goals. They’ve only scored three or more goals once on their travels this season, which was quite surprising to me. And 22 of Palace’s 25 games have gone under 3.5, so they failed to score in five or six when hosting the top six. Admittedly there were three 0-0 draws in that time, but Arsenal and Spurs one here with room spare. So I don’t see reason why City can’t do similar. But I don’t think it’s going to be a high scoring win.

Flash:

I think Man city to score a minimum two. Yeah, I agree with you. I’m not sure Palace score at -110. Stinch, that is a massive +100 for Man City to win by two goals. That brings in your 3-0, 3-1 and even 2-0 and just jog on.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, that’s the figure that sticks out like a sore thumb to me here. Mark has painted a brilliant case about how bad Palace have been of late, and of the majority of the season, and they come up against the best team in the world. So being able to get plus money for the best team in the world to win by two or more goals. Fionn looks a great bet, they’ve had the whole week off to prepare for this Man City, and as Mark mentioned, they should have a full squad available. So nothing sure of a professional 2-0 performance, I think is the minimum required here. And there’s no reason to suggest that that’s not going to happen. So I just think that is the way to go. Same as Mark, I did look at taking City, maybe backing City and unders, but if you do that, I just think you’ll always end up watching behind your fingers basically, because they’re capable of tearing anyone apart on their day. And you have some of their players that maybe aren’t going to be involved from the start against Leipzig, maybe Álvarez, Riyad Mahrez, for example.

They’re capable of scoring two free goals easily. So that’s why I thought I play… I say play it safer basically. I’m maybe taking a bit of a chance. I need my bet, City need to win by at least two goals. But I just think it’s a little bit safer than taking them, and the unders because you never want, I think to be on unders in a game involving City themselves. And Zaha’s back for Palace. We know he contributes to a lot of their goals, but a lot of his goals come from the penalty spot this season, and that’s not sustainable one bit. I worry for Palace, especially with their fixtures coming up as Mike mentioned. So they need to find a way back at some point, but they’ve showed no signs, haven’t at all, since the resumption of the World Cup and for me, I think this is where Man City kick on, and really run Arsenal close until the end of the season.

Flash:

Yeah, I see-

Mark Stinchcombe:

That’s 1000 for Palace to be relegated by the way.

Flash:

Wow. You’ve got to think they’ve got too much and they got too much spirit, and obviously they’ll have that crowd behind them. And there’s six other teams that are just as bad at this moment in time. But yeah, +1000 you’re not going to get that every day of the week. Man City for me, let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I think Man City shred them. I think that Palace can’t sit in, because they’ve got to get something out the game. If they do sit in, then they’re going to get picked off, and they’re even dangerous from set pieces against this mob. Now at Man City -1.5 at +100 for us both. We just see that that’s a massive number.

Also, I mentioned it on the best bets, because I’ve wrote three doubles and a treble down here, and could pay out handsomely. Let’s move on to our final game, because here I’m maybe going to be telling you that there’s maybe no goal scorer. Last game please. It’s Newcastle versus Wolves. Newcastle at -155. No thank you. Wolves +450, maybe the +1 at -140, Wolves draw no bet. But the under 2.5 at -130 screams at me. I don’t see three goals in this game. I do see 0-0. Draw +290. Draw halftime. Stinch, can you push me away from the draw halftime, and even a 0-0 full-time, which obviously is under 2.5 at -130.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’d push you away from draw betting unless you’ve got a record that says that you win more than you lose essentially. I done about you, but when we discuss these game on a weekly basis, we generally talk about the full-time result, and full-time performances. So then when maybe we try and be too clever if we start betting on halftime markets. So that would be where I would-

Flash:

In fact, to be honest, my halftime record is a million miles better than my full-time, believe it or not. Like last week, I had Villa halftime +170, but also then double dipped and when I double dipped I give up one unit back. It’s crazy. And in Europe I’ve been absolutely flying.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Okay, fair enough then, yeah. Crack on then.

Flash:

You speak for yourself. That’s all I’m saying. Don’t bring more negativity to my record.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Okay. If you have an edge and it pays off, then by all means continue down it. But I think unders is the logical bet. Newcastle’s last eight games under 2.5 goals. Wolves haven’t got that big a sample size, because the new manager didn’t come in that long ago, but the last four have been unders. Generally when these two play their styles, they setup to be organized and essentially not get beaten. Newcastle had a fantastic season, made it to a cut final, spent a lot the season in the top four, but they’ve actually drawn more games than they’ve won, and that’s been their sort of… If you could label a negative against them, is that they don’t score enough goals. And I think that we’ve seen that, when they’ve come up against the bigger teams as well this season.

They lost both games against Liverpool. They obviously got beaten last week against Man City, and they lost in the cut final against Man United. And they only scored in one goal in those four games. Now maybe that goal was scored by Isak, and he’s suffered a lot of injuries, so that’s maybe their problem this season. Miguel Almirón stepped up really, really well, but he’s gone off the wheel for the last couple of months now, in terms of goal scoring. So yeah, I think everything points towards the unders, it’s just in my mind it’s already gone a bit far at -130. So I’m happy to pass up on it. I think maybe Newcastle are a bit short here at -155, and everything’s going to be a low scoring game, then I think maybe Wolves should be a bit more respected. But I shouldn’t really speak too much about their manager, because I know Mark’s a fan, so maybe I’ll let him divulge his plan of attack regarding Lopetegui.

Flash:

Mark O’Haire, what about Newcastle not to score twice at -110?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I’d rather just take the under 2.5 goals, which is what my selection is going to be. Stinch just talked about it, not sure about whether it was recently, or a couple of weeks ago, but about the downturn in goals in the Premier League. And I did a little look actually, since the end of December, we’ve had about under 2.5 goals in about two thirds of matches in the Premier League. The overall league now is over 2.5 goals, is hitting at just 50%, which is really low compared to Premier League standards over previous campaigns. The goals per game average is down as well. And I think here, we’ve got two teams who… Well two teams in terms of the top four, for lowest goals per game in the whole league meeting. So Newcastle matches averaging 217, Wolves, 2.08. 67% of Newcastle games go under. 62% of wolves go under.

And I think everything we’ve seen in recent weeks suggests it’s going to be another tight match, because Newcastle, although their chance creation has remained relatively strong, Callum Wilson’s had big problems in forward areas, so he’s possibly going to be dropped this weekend. He’s not scored, or they might have scored once since October. Almirón’s output is down massively, but defensively they still remain quite a strong unit, particularly at St. James’ Park, where they’ve kept seven clean sheets in 12. 75% of home games going under. And actually if you look at the last 10 games from Newcastle, across all venues in the Premier League nine have gone under. The average goals per game output in those 10 games, 1.11. So it’s not been hugely entertaining, or fun following Newcastle at the minute. And yet Wolves under Lopetegui, everything we kind of expected from them to be much better drilled, dogged, competitive compact, but a forward line that isn’t functioning, and hasn’t done for a long time.

We’re now looking at a year since the Wolves center forward scored a goal in the Premier League, which is a hell of a record. But I think now, they’ve got good enough players elsewhere to be competitive, and I wouldn’t touch Newcastle at -155. Wolves +1 is of interest, but I just think the better bet here is under 2.5 goals, because wolves didn’t even have a shot in the first half against Spurs last week. They switched system at halftime, went to three at the back, improved immeasurably, interested to see if they followed suit here, but that was the seventh game and 11 in the Premier League under Lopetegui to go under 2.5 goals. Only four of those games have seen both teams scoring, and those 11 games of average two goals per game as well.

So almost everything, every stat trend, or a tactical approach, you try and look towards, it here suggests it’s going to be a tight match. And this is a fixture with a strong bias towards draws, and in particular 1-1s. So I think under 2.5 goals, just because you get that range of correct score 0-0, 1-1. 1-0 or 2-1, either way, whole on your side, rather than trying to be a little bit too intricate or particular with your selection.

Flash:

Yeah. +290 the draw. Yeah, let’s have a little look at the official pick, because I don’t see anybody saying overs. I don’t see anyone saying both teams are scoring over, and I don’t see many people just saying, don’t complicate it. Newcastle at -155. Under 2.5 goals for Mark O’Haire at -130. Now it’s time for a Q&A, but before we do that, I’ll ask you to subscribe and ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again. If you want a little free bet on the 0-0, or on the draw of Newcastle versus Wolves, or any other sporting event or soccer event this weekend, then please type in betustv.com/fifty. Then if you want to know where you’re get in the odds, it’s betustv.com/odds. My first question is, quick one, because obviously I’ve got 48 shows to do today.

Stinch, do I take Fulham money Line +475 to beat Arsenal?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No.

Flash:

Oh, that’s the wrong answer. Tottenham versus Forrest. Tottenham are like a bag of spanners for me. Mark O’Haire, if they can’t get up for a Champions League game at home in front of a packed crowd, then I think they’ve shots of pieces. By the way, let me just throw a few hand grenades at some of these players. Worst game I’ve seen, Son, maybe some Spurs fans can actually put me right if I’m wrong, but Son looks like he’s a million miles off it, and his confidence tank is fractured. Harry Kane looks like he’s running in a sandpit with zero energy, and a top speed of like two mile an hour, and Kulusevski is second guessing himself, and again, he looks gassed out. Is it one of those that this season is catching up with Spurs already?

Mark O’Haire:

Shouldn’t be, because we were told that Spurs had started this way. They haven’t changed the way in which they’ve played all season, and we were told that it’s actually because they’re keeping some energy in their legs for later in the campaign. It’s something that their fitness team would’ve been working really hard on. So I don’t have the answers for Tottenham. It was incredibly disappointing. Quite a disgraceful display really, when you’re trying to-

Flash:

It was disgraceful.

Mark O’Haire:

… Overturn a first leg performance at home in the Champions League in the knockout. The relationship between the fans and Antonio Conte, and the coaching team is now completely broken. I think there’s absolutely no chance he’ll be Spur’s manager next season. Even a suggestion he might leave before the end of the campaign.

Flash:

Yeah. Mark O’Haire how’s he still Spurs manager today? He’s hardly been at the training ground, or the ground over some sort of issues, maybe health issues, or whatever last month.

Mark O’Haire:

I’ve got slight sympathy for Conte, to a certain degree. Obviously they lost a member of their coaching staff,, the fitness coach whenever that was, and he was a very close friend to Conte, and that’s going to hit him hard. Obviously getting surgery and having to be away in hospital is difficult, but this malaise have been in place before then. They’ve been playing like this all season. And if the players were behind him, you would’ve had some sort of reaction, some sort of performance in midweek, but they were playing just leaderless. So no direction whatsoever to the play. As you say, a lot of the players just look like they’re running intrical. They look broken, absolutely broken.

Flash:

They do, they do.

Mark O’Haire:

I guess Forrest are absolutely diabolical when they go away from home, but the quick turnaround for Spurs as well, isn’t it? Playing Wednesday night and playing Saturday afternoon, so maybe just, maybe this is the opportunity for Forrest to put off a bit of an upset. I don’t think they’re as bad as their results say they are, when they play away. They have got players of real purpose in Johnson and Morgan Gibbs who are out front who can cause a Spurs team some problems. Yeah, I wouldn’t touch tot on them this weekend.

Flash:

Okay, Jack Simpsons says, “How many will Man United score against South Hampton?

Mark O’Haire:

Seven.

Flash:

Who cares? Who cares? Yeah. Seven. Seven. So they’ll be like seven and seven on the week. Okay, let’s have a little look at the best bets please. There’s some yellow, there’s some yellow. We love yellow. Brentford double chance and under 3.5 at -120, scared the life out of me from away from beating Everton at +170. Liverpool -1 at… It should be, Liverpool -1.5 at +125. Unless I’m just going to get an extra 25, 30, 40% on my -1. Leeds Brighton, over 2.5 at -1 15. Leeds Brighton, Solly March anytime scorer +500. That is half unit. Leicester, Chelsea, James Madison, anytime scorer +450. That’s a full unit. Man City -1.5, that +100 for myself and for Stinch.

Newcastle Wolves under 2.5 at -130. I think the draw is at +290. The 0-0 half time’s a runner. Leeds Brighton over 2.5 at -115 over 2.5 goals, involving Brighton happening weekly. Here we go. Liverpool and over 2.5 goals in the game at +100. Chelsea and over 1.5 goals at +150. My banker is Chelsea money line at +100. And Man City -1.5 at +100. How about this for a little +800 parlay. Okay, so we’ve got Liverpool, whichever one you want. -121, -1.5 at +125. Chelsea to win the game at +100 and Man City at -1.5 at +100. You could do three doubles and a treble. So three doubles and a parlay, which is four bets.

Well the worst case scenario is, you’re going to get your money back if you get two of them. If you get all three, you’re going to be buzzing. If you just do a parlay, it’s +800 on the nose. Okay, so everybody from Bet US, from Mark, from Stinch, from everyone in the chat please thumbs up on your way out, and don’t sleep on us because it’s Bundesliga coming up. In a blink of an eye, then it’s Serie A, then it’s La Liga. Then I’m going to sleep for 16 hours, and then I’m going to taste my winners all weekend. Stinch, Mark O’Hare. We’ll see you both very soon. Champions League, Europa League awaits. You take.