Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I mean City’s price to win the treble right now is minuscule, really. Man United in opposition in the FA Cup and Inter Milan in the Champions League. City will be the shortest price favorite to ever feature in a Champions League final, by some distance as well. So yeah, all focus now is on this weekend. City play Chelsea on Sunday. They might well be crowned champions before then because Arsenal go to Forest on Saturday for a tricky-ish game considering the way in which Arsenal have defended in recent weeks. So yeah, we expect things to be wrapped up for this weekend. Whether City do it themselves or rely on Forest to do them a favor, we’ll wait and see. But, I mean, their performance on Wednesday night in the Champions League against Real Madrid kind of hallmarked all the reasons why City always go off at these minuscule prices.
We talked about Real Madrid being a big, big price for a team who’s won the European Cup multiple, multiple times in the last decade. And City just took them to the cleaners. From the start to the finish it was very surgical, it was very efficient, it was very clinical. But they didn’t let Real Madrid out of their own half. When possession was turned over, it was won back immediately. And I think that’s the issue when you try and get involved in a City game is they’re always capable of reaching those highest heights, which no other team on the planet can come close to, really.
And yeah, I mean, you want to take your hat off to them and say, “Yeah, well done,” because they have been incredibly impressive, and Wednesday night was mesmeric in many different ways. However, for me, it’s always a little bit tarnished because of the ownership issues and because in a Premier League perspective they’re still facing over a hundred alleged breaches of financial fair play over multiple, multiple years. So yeah, credit to them for winning another title, but they’re doing what’s expected of them in recent seasons. They have the strongest squad, they have the best players and also the best coach in the world. So I guess they’re hitting par.
Speaker:
Okay. Go from the sublime to the ridiculous. Let’s go to the bottom of the league, and farewell the mighty Saints. Stinch, absolute joke. What we had, one, two, maybe three, maybe four managers throughout the season? Not kept enough clean sheets. They deserve to go. Who goes with them?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, great question. I think it’s probably going to be two from four. We’ve got Southampton, obviously, definitely relegated, probably will finish bottom. Yeah, I think it’d have to take an astronomical swing and goal difference for them not to finish bottom. So yeah, you’ve got Leicester second bottom at the moment on 30, Leeds, 31, Everton, 32, Forest, 34. To be honest, I think it’s difficult to see a way out for the two that are in there right now in Leeds and Leicester. Leeds away at West Ham this weekend, which is-
Speaker:
What a game.
Mark O’Haire:
… got to be the best time to play West Ham after a cup semifinal, particularly if West Ham make the final. But then they finish with Tottenham at home, which on paper maybe it’s difficult, but we’ve seen how badly Tottenham have been, and motivation factor for Tottenham is probably going to be next to nothing. So actually, Leeds maybe could get their way out of that. Leicester, they’ve got to play West Ham at home, but first they go to Newcastle. Newcastle obviously trying to seal that top four position, only one point clear of Liverpool, only goal difference clear of Man United. So that looks really, really difficult. Yeah, I still think quite a lot to go. I know we’ve got two games remaining, but Forest have got Arsenal, as Mark mentioned. Everton’s fixtures looks okay. They’ve got Wolves away, Bournemouth at home.
Speaker:
They’ve got chances. They’ve got chances, haven’t they? And that’s all you can ask with two games to go.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I mean, it’s just incredible though to see Leicester where they are. I mean, they’ve scored 49 goals this season, which is more than Aston Villa. Aston Villa are sat comfortably in eighth. And it’s just mad that they’re the only team in Europe that haven’t kept a clean sheet since the World Cup. I think it’s 20 games, right, Mark? It’s-
Speaker:
Because they’re not organized.
Mark O’Haire:
21.
Speaker:
They’re not organized. They’ve got no leader. And every time a team goes forward, I don’t care who they are, they look like scoring. They’re jokes at the back, absolute jokes, and they get what they deserve. Mismanaged on the pitch. I’m not talking about behind the scenes because again, Brendan Rogers is great coach. By the way, let’s not forget they’re in this situation because of him. Okay? So he’s sloped off, and now someone else is going to get all the rubbish, but it was him who did it.
I said at the start of the season that I hope they go down and I hope that he gets sacked, but I was hoping he’d get sacked once they went down. But now I’m hoping that… I don’t know what I’m hoping for, really. But it’s going to go down to the wire. Listen, let’s have a little look in the chat here. We got King Petrelli. He must have got one of his servants to wake him up early. Obviously, my producer wants me to read the record. Minus 21, by the way. We was up minus 37. So since Christmas I think we’re up 16 or 17 units. As you can see, Stinch is at 0.37. Are you happy with that, Stinch?
Mark O’Haire:
No, I’m not very happy with that, to be honest. I’ve been on a bit of a bad run, so I’ve got to try and turn it around the final two weeks.
Speaker:
Yeah. When I said, “Are you happy with it?” I wasn’t asking about your personal emotion, I was asking whether my graphics boys have got it right.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I think it’s right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:
Perfect.
Mark O’Haire:
I lost three out of three last week.
Speaker:
It’s good enough.
Mark O’Haire:
But yeah, I’m disappointed. I think around Christmas or January it was plus eight. So yeah, just-
Speaker:
So you’ve had a nightmare.
Mark O’Haire:
No, nightmare’s not the right word. No.
Speaker:
You’re having a beast. Don’t worry.
Mark O’Haire:
Just plodding along. Just plodding along-
Mark O’Haire:
It’s all right, mate.
Mark O’Haire:
… slightly in the wrong direction.
Speaker:
Don’t worry. Don’t go on.
Mark O’Haire:
Don’t worry, Stinch. Join our club.
Speaker:
We can see. The numbers don’t lie. And you’re still the best of a bad bunch. Okay, let’s crack on. We’ve got seven games. There is plenty. We need you to start typing now. The first game, Liverpool versus Villa. Liverpool is the reason why I’ve been able to have a little bit of caviar and a bit of champagne just for breakfast because we got them right nearly every single week of the last eight because we said that they would win in and they are doing just that. Liverpool minus 205. Villa plus 475. The under or over is set at three with the over at minus 120. The draw is at plus 405. Mark O’Haire, I’m not happy about this game being like a four-nil, four-one, but I cannot get away from Liverpool winning it. So I’m thinking minus 205 might be a parlay piece.
Mark O’Haire:
Not for me. I found this game quite tricky. Liverpool, obviously, is gunning for top four. Villa have still got European dreams alive in that they’re very keen to try and finish as high as they can. We talked about it last week, but at the moment, seventh guarantees European football. But it could go down, or it’s likely to go down, to eighth if Man United finish in the top four. So that will be determined by whether Europa Conference League or Europa League. Villa want to play under the best competition possible, which would obviously be the Europa League. So they’re very focused and keen to finish with a flourish. Liverpool, as we know, at Anfield are tremendously strong. 13 wins from 18, nine wins from the last 11, all of which were unbeaten. Just the one home loss, which came against Leeds, of all teams. But they’ve turned over City here, annihilated Man United, beaten Newcastle and Spurs, held by Arsenal and Brighton. But they tend to get the job done when they meet top half teams at Anfield.
But this, to me, does feel like a tricky test, probably more so than the odds are suggesting. We’ve talked about Villa possibly overachieving compared to their underlying metrics. But I think Unai Emery does deserve incredible credit for what he’s achieved there. Only City, Arsenal, Liverpool have earned more points since he was appointed, and they tend to be quite obdurate opposition in recent weeks. I look at their performance last week against Spurs, albeit at Villa Park, but John McGinn won the ball back 12 times. Ashley Young, Álex Moreno and Douglas Luiz all won the ball back six times. Huge, high figures for individual players. And they really hassled and harried Spurs and made life difficult. Didn’t concede one shot on target in the first half, and in last 13 games I don’t think they’ve conceded multiple goals in any of them. If you look at those 13 fixtures as well, they’ve conceded just four goals from open play, so they’re very difficult to penetrate.
Villa are talking about them as the core four, but there’s four players who didn’t even start the season under Steven Gerrard who have now really come to the fore and are absolute guarantees in the starting 11. So Mings, Douglas Luiz, Emi Buendía and Ollie Watkins, chuck in McGinn as well. We’ve got five players who are playing out of their skin compared to where they were at the beginning of this campaign. So I think they’ll fancy their chances here of making life difficult for a Liverpool team who are winning, as you say, but they’re not always convincing. I think the opening half hour was in the balance against Leicester. The goal saw Leicester’s heads go down and confidence completely shot, but against Forest, Fulham, Spurs and Brentford here in the last month, they’ve not exactly brought the house down. They’ve not been dominant. All four wins by one goal margins. There’s been an element of fortune, an element of scrappiness about those wins as well.
So I think Villa can be competitive. They don’t often lose by big margins, so I wouldn’t be backing Villa in handicaps or anything like that, but I couldn’t find anything to really substantiate my claims here. So perhaps Liverpool will win, but I don’t think it’ll be by a big margin. So perhaps Liverpool to win by exactly one goal. Maybe Liverpool in under four and a half goals, something like that. But I haven’t got a price that I wanted to get behind, but I would have been keen on Villa plus one and a quarter if it was minus 120 or bigger. But it’s not going to happen, so I’ve left it alone.
Speaker:
Yeah. I had this game being a possible one-nil, two-nil. I’m loving a name on here, by the way, and I just asked him where he’s from because I’ve not seen his name up there too often. But it’s Povador Sigurdsson, and he’s actually from Iceland. And I love all that because I’m a massive fan of all of them countries north and east of the UK. Yeah, I wrote it down Liverpool to be leading at halftime one-nil. So then I found plus 125, Stinch, on the halftime, full-time. But I think the under three and a half, under four and a half is probably the way to go.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I would agree. I think it’s not going to be as comfortable as the odds suggest. I think Villa are capable of keeping things tight. That’s Unai Emery’s trademark with the success he’s had, certainly at the likes of Villarreal and Sevilla. And I think he’s showed it so far at Villa. Mark mentioned about them not conceding multiple goals on many occasions. I think ultimately with Liverpool having… I said it a few times in recent weeks, it just seems now that they’ve got most of their players back fit. And with the five subs available, they’ve just got so many different options that they can change the game where necessary.
I’m going to be at this game, last game of the season for Liverpool at Anfield. It’s going to be the sendoff for the likes of Firmino, Milner. So I think the atmosphere will be quite good and quite vocal. Yeah. I mean, Liverpool, we touched on it at the beginning of the show, they’re well in the battle for this top four position. I still think they might have left it too late, but they keep winning and putting the pressure on the other teams. Newcastle don’t play until Monday night and they’ve got Leicester. And obviously, Leicester are trying to get out of relegation.
Mine now, they’ve got to go to Bournemouth. You could say Bournemouth are now safe. So there might be an element of not having any motivation there. But still, you’ve still got to go out there and get the win. I’m envisaging maybe a two-one victory for Liverpool. I think it could be by a narrow margin. But I just think ultimately, I think Villa obviously are very heavily reliant on Ollie Watkins, for example, whereas Liverpool have got Salah, Jota, Firmino, Luis Díaz.
Speaker:
The list is endless.
Mark O’Haire:
Luis Díaz is now back. Yeah, Núñez is. I think Núñez picked up an injury the other day, but still, they’ve got those four. I mean, Curtis Jones now with this change in position of Alexander-Arnold having a bit of a defensive midfield role, it allows one of those three midfielders to stay high up the pitch. And Curtis Jones proved by standing up there, you get yourself in more goal scoring positions.
So yeah, I just think, oh, maybe Liverpool will have a little bit too much of Villa, but I don’t think there’s anything too untoward with the odds. I think they’re quite well in line. But I would definitely be leaning towards the unders, for sure, because, yeah, I just think Villa are going to sit tight and keep things really tight at the back. Liverpool might eventually find a way through, but I don’t think it’s going to be a high scoring victory. As Mark says, we’ve seen against Brentford, against Fulham, scraped by by single goal victories. I know they conceded two against Forest, but still, they only won by a single goal in that game as well. So I don’t really like playing this margin of victory bet. I know I played it last week when Man City beat Everton by three goals. And yeah, it could have been tighter if Everton had had taken their chances, but I just think it’s a bit too niche. So yeah, I waffled a bit there. So it’d be interesting to hear your bet anyway, Flash.
Speaker:
Well, yeah, I’m not sure that Villa score. I’ve got Liverpool winning at halftime. And if Liverpool are leading halftime, I think they go on and win the game, because it’s all about the W. I don’t think they’re going to be looking for fours and fives. I think they just make sure that they win the game. The official pick is, okay, let’s have a little look, Liverpool halftime, full-time. I thought I turned the biggest number into the possibility. They’re at plus 125. Danny Lopez says Villa 110 and seven, first half away. A lot of people are saying they can see two-nil as well. Hugo, he’s come out at two-nil. And it’s nice that King Petrelli says, “Yes, my servants did wake me up and let me know about the show.” I think he means us because he’s obviously rung the bell and we notified him.
Now let’s move on, game number two. Wolves plus 175 hosting Everton, who are favorites at plus 160. Massive price for a side who need to get something out of the game. The draw is at plus 235. Wolves are minus 200 not to score twice. That could be another parlay piece because I don’t think Wolves score twice. But Everton to score twice are at plus 155. The total is under or over two and a half, with the over two and half being at plus money as well. I can see this being Wolves one, Everton two. So are we brave enough to go with Everton moneyline, don’t complicate it, or just Everton to score twice, Stinch?
Mark O’Haire:
It’s mad, Everton at this price. No? They’ve won two games away from home all season. They don’t-
Speaker:
Did you not think this game matches up exactly the same as the Brighton game? Wolves keep the ball, commit, and then Everton spring them?
Mark O’Haire:
I think it’s difficult to say because the reason Everton are at this price is because they’ve got something to play for and Wolves haven’t, isn’t it?
Speaker:
Yeah.
Mark O’Haire:
I mean, let’s not be beat around the bush.
Speaker:
[inaudible 00:17:58].
Mark O’Haire:
Wolves are safe. Everton are looking to confirm safety. As I say, their final game of the season is at home to Bournemouth. If they win here, I think they are pretty much safe or they give themselves a massive opportunity of confirming safety without having to worry what other teams do. So they’ve got a huge motivation to go here and win. I was looking at the unders because not that I wanted to back it, but we know from most of the season, you don’t often get Wolves matches with the two and a half line. Often, it can be that flat goal line of two.
We’ve seen Everton. I don’t want to read too much into their five-one victory at Brighton because I just think that’s one of those random games that you get in football. But Everton have been very low scoring this season. So I thought maybe the unders would be something I could take advantage of, but there’s just too many negative factors. I mean, as I say, Wolves, nothing to play for, so they can actually go out and play football for a change rather than this pragmatic style of play.
I mean, yeah, credit to Lopetegui. When he took over, Wolves were in a massive relegation battle and they smoothly got themselves out of it. He had a very tough fixture list at the beginning of his tenure that included the likes of City, Liverpool, United, and he’s managed to guide them to safety. So he deserves credit there. And yeah, with May, we know generally the goal expectancy goes up. So yeah, I wanted to back unders, and I definitely wouldn’t be surprised. I mean, Wolves could be on the beach. We don’t know whether they are going to turn up and take the handbrake off, or they could just be on the beach and not care at all.
So if I had to pick a bet, I would see a low scoring game, a one-one or maybe Everton sneak at one-nil. But yeah, just concern that there’s too many factors that suggest that it could actually be over 2.5. But there’s no way I’d be backing Everton at the prices. I mean, there might be people out there that have good success backing teams that need to win and like to back teams that have motivation, but in a normal season there’s no way Everton would be plus 160. They’d be like plus 230, plus 240. There wouldn’t be much to split these two teams. You’d have Wolves at plus 120, plus 115. So I think based on that, you could say Wolves have value, but as I say, they haven’t got anything to play for. So I think it’s a really, really dodgy match to try and get involved in, to be honest.
Speaker:
Couldn’t disagree more. I’m totally with Everton because I know what these Wolves boys are like, and if it’s a 50/50, it becomes an 80/20 in Everton’s favor because, again, a little bit like what happened at Brighton, they’ll sit back. Wolves are not blessed with scoring loads of goals. So I’m thinking Everton, they do score twice, at plus 155. I think if they score twice, Mark O’Haire, they win the game because it’s desperation. I just don’t know. I do not see Wolves scoring twice. So again, the minus 200, you could stick with Liverpool moneyline at minus 200, and all of a sudden you’ve got a plus, what, 130, 135 parlay?
Mark O’Haire:
I’m kind of between both of you, really, because I think there is an opportunity here for Everton to get something, and I think their recent performances have suggested they’re capable of rising to the challenge. However, they did lose three-nil to City despite playing well. They won five-one at Brighton, which was a bit of a fluke scoreline match, really, in the grand scheme of things. They were very clinical, very efficient. But they played well against Leicester, but they only drew two-two away from home. So they’re playing well. They’re just not winning often enough, really. One win in nine now, and that’s the predicament, really. Wolves might not have anything to play for, which I’ll come to, but to see Everton as favorites away from home, I can’t back that because desperation doesn’t equal points. Just because you need points, it doesn’t turn you into world beaters.
This is a team that’s only won seven games all season. They’ve only won twice away. Going back to the start of last season, Everton have won four Premier League matches away from Goodison Park from 37, and they’re favorites. I can’t agree with that at all. So I understand the reasoning behind it. I’ve seen some positive signs with Calvert-Lewin playing. Dwight McNeil’s had a real sort of resurgence since Sean Dyche has come back in as well. But I actually think there is something here for Wolves which might have gone a little bit unnoticed. I don’t think they’re going to lie down because this is their final match at Molineux this season. They might have already secured survival. However, it looks like it could be the last match for a number of their big players.
Stinch mentioned some of those key players from Liverpool in years gone by who are leaving. Well, Wolves look like they could be losing Rúben Neves, João Moutinho, Raúl Jiménez this summer. So they’ll want to sign off with a positive, really. And I think there will be a bit of a decent atmosphere to see those boys off after what they’ve been… They’ve given them great service, some of them arriving when they were in the championship. So that won’t have been forgotten. And Wolves at Molineux under Lopetegui are no easy meet. They’ve won four on the spin here without conceding. It’s actually seven wins to nil from the last nine home games under Lopetegui. They’re awkward, they’re obdurate. I think this will be a real grind, actually. I think Everton are going to have to work doubly hard to get anything out of the game. So if I really, really had to, I probably would back Everton on the pick’em, but I do not like that price whatsoever. I disagree with the market odds and that’s why I can’t get involved.
Speaker:
Yeah. I’ve just gone with a team that has to fight, a team that just the last away game you can put a line through, but the one before they scored five. I don’t think they need to score… Maybe two’s good enough here. And I’m looking at the plus money. So yeah, probably the best way to go if you’re a real pro is Everton draw no bet at minus 115 or Wolves not to score twice in the parlay. But let’s have a little look at official Soccer picks because it’s Everton moneyline for me, plus 160. Living by the sword and I will fall on it as well. Hugo said, “Everton is horrible.” Hugo, where are you from? Because it’s Everton are horrible, not is. Okay? Everton are, A-R-E. Okay?
Let’s move on. Game number three. London derby, just across the old Battersea Bridge, Fulham versus Crystal Palace. Fulham plus 140, Palace plus 200. Over or under is the way you got to look at this. It’s over two and half at plus 100, under two and half at minus 120. The draw could be a runner at plus 235. Mark O’Haire, is this like any time scorers? Is it like both teams to score an over? It just looks like one of those both safe, both like to play on the front foot. Who scores the most?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. Yeah, I think that’s probably fair. It could have a bit of an end of season feel about it, really. I know Fulham and Marco Silva have been eager to tell us that they’ve not been on the beach now for a couple of weeks despite their lofty position, and they’ve backed up those kind of suggestions with really impressive efforts. The defeats to Liverpool and Man City were narrow and very competitive. And then they smashed Leicester, of course, and beat Southampton quite comfortably last weekend. And that win was quite significant because it was their 15th Premier League win of the season which set a new club record. I think you have to mention Marco Silva in the Manager of the Year conversation because it feels quickly forgotten, but Fulham are a promoted team this year. But they’ve been in the top half since August. They will finish as a top half team, which is an incredible achievement.
They’ve only spent around 50 million on new players, which is very little compared to some of their relegation rivals. They’ve had their best striker and top goal scorer banned for almost a quarter of the campaign as well. So seriously impressive work. I know they’ve overachieved compared to their underlying metrics, but huge credit for me to Fulham. Yeah. So I think they are dangerous. As we’ve talked about with Wolves, it’s their last home game, so they’ll be quite keen to sign off with a bit of a bang, and that makes them quite interesting, I think, at plus 140. But I think, full disclosure, I am expecting quite an open and carefree attitude to this match. But I had Spurs and Brentford earmarked for coverage on the show with overs and BTTS in the system. But obviously, Ivan Toney’s suspension meant I was quite happy to scrap that. But this was next on the hit list.
And I’m not going to kind of spoil the party because Stinch has got a selection to come, but I may well follow him in on his angle because Palace can contribute, I think, to this match. They’ve won five of eight now under Hodgson, just one fewer than they managed in their previous 28 games under Patrick Vieira, an incredible turnaround. He’s given license to their most creative and influential players to roam, to express themselves, and he’s been getting great results out of those players. Eberechi Eze now top goal score of 10 goals. Six have arrived in his last seven games under Hodgson.
If you look at his heat map, if you like, he touched the ball 12 times in the opposition box in the 11 games before Hodgson arrived. In the eight games under Hodgson, he’s touched the ball 27 times in the penalty box. So an enormous change. I think what’s quite telling is Eze’s not even playing in the front three. He’s often starting on the right side of the central midfield three. So tells you everything you need to know about Palace right now. They are getting into dangerous areas. They are being threatening. They are going forward and looking to score goals. So I don’t see clean sheets. I think both teams contribute. I can see goals. I’m going to piggyback Stinch, but I’ll let him reveal his selection. I’ll be going a bit more aggressive with the selection, but, yeah, the over, under line does look quite appealing.
Speaker:
Yeah. I bet it does because I’ve got Fulham here scoring twice at plus 140, Palace scoring twice at plus 175. Again, you need a two-two draw minimum to cash both, or the over two and a half is at plus 100. Fulham could score three on their own and so could Palace, Stinch.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I mean, the reverse fixture we backed over two and a half goals at Selhurst Park, and Fulham won three-nil. That’s exactly why I think you don’t complicate it and try… And I don’t want to say too much because I think, actually, Mark is going to go for this bet. But yeah, so yeah, if you back overs, you don’t care who contributes, basically. That’s the beauty of backing overs. Yeah. I think overs should be favorite, if not 50/50. End of season. We know we get an increase in goals in May because teams have got nothing to play for and they take the handbrake off. I might mention about Fulham’s record 15 wins. They’ve actually lost 15 games as well, which just goes to show the volatility you get in Fulham matches. And I think it’s just massively encapsulated by the amount of over two and a half goals you see in their games.
We mentioned, well, I’ve mentioned a few times, that they are the over two and a half kings in the division. 65% of their games go over two and a half goals, eight of their last 12. They had a bit of a stutter after the World Cup, which is understandable. Lots of players being away, we know cramped fixture list, et cetera. But at Craven Cottage, it’s been really good for goals, backers this season. 13 of their 18 home games gone over 2.5, 72%. Craven cottage I think will be a good atmosphere at the weekend. As Mark says, final home league game of the season. This has been a fantastic season for Fulham in terms of points return. They’ve been fun to watch, I would say, because you just don’t know what’s going to happen. As I say, that 15 wins, 15 losses, they could easily lose this three-nil, but obviously, the overs would still win.
I mentioned about Roy Hodgson being back at Palace. Eight games in charge have seen 23 goals. That’s just one fewer than three per game there in terms of an average. It is worth noting that five of the last six have gone under 2.5, so a lot of those goals have been in the same game. But having said all of that, I would happily back at this price because it’s just Fulham involved. Because there might be the reason we’re getting a better price than say, I don’t know, minus 110 or minus 115 because it’s Palace involved and they’re not always goal heavy.
But we’ve talked a lot about Fulham, especially recently, in terms of goal heavy games, and they’ve done it all without Mitrović. And now he’s back. I know last week he started on the bench, so hopefully this weekend he will start in the 11 because, obviously, he contributes a lot in terms of goals and overall play. But yeah, I just think there’s more reasons to be betting overs at this price than there isn’t, essentially. So I’m hoping for this end of season feel where, as I say, both teams have confirmed safety, Fulham much, much earlier than expected, and I think they can go out with a bang.
Speaker:
Fernando Mendoza says he is going for under nine corners at plus 135. Maybe you can just shift that up and go with under nine and a half at maybe minus 105, maybe plus 100. It just gives you that extra one when nine would be a victory instead of a push. I think that Palace are great value at plus 200 here as well. But why complicate it? Because, again, it could end up in a draw and you’d lose your moneyline. But if it’s a draw, then you’ve got to go with the over two and a half goals at plus 100. Let’s have a little look at the official pick, even though I’m copying and pasting it. Over two and a half goals is plus 100. I think here I wrote down both teams to score an over. If the over two and a half is plus 100, both teams to score an over. It’d be around plus 135, plus 140. Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
It’s plus 125, Flash. So I’ll add that to my official-
Speaker:
You want the plus 125 because you don’t see clean sheets?
Mark O’Haire:
Yep.
Speaker:
You going to add that onto the sheet so that everyone knows and also that will be official. So you know how my graphics boys work nowadays. That’ll be up before I even get anywhere near that best bets graphic.
Okay, let’s move on to game number four. Forest at plus 425, Arsenal minus 175. Arsenal minus one at minus 110. Do they bounce back? Because if they do that minus one is an absolute gift. But Arsenal now, are they going to jack it in and just say, “Well, it’s been a great season and we just came up short”? The draw is at plus 355. The goal line’s set at three. I’m not sure. Do we see four goals? Because if we see four goals, I’d rather go with Arsenal minus one at minus 110. Let’s go with Mark O’Haire, oh, no, Stinch. Stinch, let’s go with you.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I think this game’s all about Arsenal’s mentality, emotion after last weekend. It feels like, although it’s not obviously confirmed, but it feels like Man City definitely are going to be champions now after Arsenal lost three-nil at home to Brighton. If Arsenal don’t win here, City don’t even have to kick a ball and they’ve won the league. Whereas, Forest are three points clear of relegation. They’re going to be desperate for points. They go to Palace final day this season. Regardless of who they’re playing final day, they obviously want to get safety wrapped up ASAP. I mean, during the season, normal course of the season, I think, yeah we’d probably back Arsenal, maybe Arsenal to win in over 2.5, something like that, or Arsenal minus one. We know Forest have been terrible, really, defensively,
I mean, even of late, I don’t know how they’ve managed to give themselves a fighting chance, but fair play that they have managed to. I mean, that victory against Brighton was a huge upset. They let Southampton have tons and tons of opportunities but somehow managed to win four-three. So they do deserve some credit, but ultimately they are very poor defensively. I mean, they conceded 67 this season. And despite that sort of revival, they’ve conceded at least two goals in seven of their last eight games. But one thing I have noticed of late is, particularly against the best teams, they’ve tended to sacrifice an attacking player and bring in an extra defender. So they’ve gone to five at the back. I don’t think it’s really changed their fortunes too much in terms of the number of goals in the game. For example, last weekend away at Chelsea, obviously it was two-two, and those games I referenced there against both Brighton and Southampton were goal heavy.
And as we know, generally, Arsenal matches have been quite goal heavy as well. It’s 11 of the last 12 have gone over 2.5. But, look, we’ve got a goal line of three. It just feels a little bit unfair, I think. During the course of the season there’s been some Forest matches where the goal line’s been set at two. So I think the market’s caught up with the fact that they have been able to find the net. I think that was the issue. Forest were not contributing. They’ve now obviously been to Stanford Bridge and scored twice. They’ve been to Anfield, scored twice. Scoring three against Brighton is very creditable.
So yeah, again, I just think that the market’s already covered the places I would want to go here. I don’t really want to back Forest because I can’t trust them. But then at the same time, for Arsenal, you just don’t know where they are psychologically. They’re not going to finish lower than second, and winning the league is a very tough ask from this point onwards given Man City’s lead and game in hand. And yeah, what’s this? I think this is the evening game on Saturday as well. Again, we keep touching upon it, but I do think it is important. Last home game in the season for Forest. Their supporters will be right, right behind them. And yeah, we could see an upset, to be honest. Maybe it is worth a small bet backing Forest on the moneyline if Arsenal don’t look at the races.
Speaker:
Got to be consistent because if we’d have had this game six, seven weeks ago, Forest would be plus 750. I think Arsenal are just too classy. And I want to see their character. Maybe this is in live play. Or you can parlay, maybe Arsenal moneyline and Liverpool moneyline. It comes out around plus 135. And then you haven’t really got to pull up too much for Arsenal. I see Arsenal being too classy here, Mark O’Haire, too much pace, too much creativity, and I think they dominate the midfield as well. So it’s just if Arsenal finish their chances. Forest are going to give them plenty, and if they’re give them plenty, you could maybe throw in a couple or a few ATSs, anytime scorers.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I have no interest in backing Arsenal at minus 175 after last week. It’s hard to put a number on the psychological aspect of losing the title and losing it in the manner they did. But before the match against Brighton there was quite an underwhelming atmosphere around the Emirates. People who were there suggested it was quite a bleak place before a ball was even kicked. And certainly, the players reacted in the same sort of manner, really. I know they’ll have TVs in the changing rooms. But to see Man City win three-nil quite comfortably away at Goodison Park in the Final Score, probably the hardest or most toughest hurdle between now and the end of the campaign, probably took the wind out of their sails a bit, and I think it’s very difficult to know how they will react to that. They could come out all guns blazing. They could limp the finish line from here. We just don’t know.
And yeah, I have no interest in backing Arsenal at those prices, regardless of what Forest have done so far this season. They have been tough opposition at the City ground. Man City didn’t win here. Newcastle won by a goal. Man United won by two. But they’ve beat Liverpool here, they’ve beaten Brighton. I know Brighton dominated the first 45 minutes, but Forest came at them after that. I wouldn’t say they deserved the win, but they certainly put them under huge amounts of pressure. And there’s been a little bit of a tweak in what Forest have done recently. Awoniyi has been starting centrally since his return from injury. He’s a massive handful, very physical. I can see him dominating that Arsenal center half partnership, who are massively undermanned there. They’re certainly fielding players who shouldn’t really be in the first 11 for a team chasing the title. And you’ve got the likes of Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson down the flank. So there’s real trickery, there’s tenacity, there’s physicality.
I think they’re more than capable of landing a blow on this Arsenal team, whether that’s a win, a draw, or scoring a couple of goals. I think they’re more than good enough to get on the score-sheet here at the very least. They’ve scored in 16 of 18 at Home. Arsenal has scored in 17 of 18 away. We’ve talked about Forest’s issues defensively already between the two of you. Failed to keep a clean sheet in 15. They’ve conceded two goals more in 12 of those. Overs has landed in 10 of the last 13. Arsenal has seen overs in 13 of 15. They’ve scored twice more in 11 of 14 but kept just six clean sheets in 22 since the World Cup. So for me, the most logical selection here is to back goals, so both teams, and over two and a half goals. So BTTS and overs gives you minus 105. I think that’s the safest selection. I don’t really care who wins. I can see the team winning, but I have no interest in Arsenal at those prices. So I think goals is the way to play it.
Speaker:
Yeah, I-
Mark O’Haire:
Flash, you mentioned a goalscorer.
Speaker:
Yeah.
Mark O’Haire:
There’s one that looks a decent price to me, especially with the recent change in Forest’s formation if they maintain it. Recently, Steve Cooper shifted Danilo to in behind the striker along with either Gibbs-White or Brennan Johnson. Brennan Johnson made way for him to be pushed forward last weekend. He scored three goals in his last four games, and he’s getting off plenty of shots, especially at the City ground. In his four starts, where he’s played at least 85 minutes, he’s had three, three, one and two shots. As I say, three goals in his last four games. Plus 1,000 to score a goal, which seems overpriced to me.
Speaker:
10 to one. Okay. Yeah. I was just about to say after what Mark O’Haire was saying about this game, I feel like a horse where he’s just pulled the reins and gone, “Whoa, boy.” Don’t be trusting Arsenal, but you can maybe trust goals. So let’s have a little look at the official picks. I really want to see how Arsenal balance here. Both teams to score in over two and half at minus 105 does look like the way to go. Everyone’s sort of agreeing with you. Remember, the goal line’s at three at minus 105. Whereas, this way you can have a three and still get paid. Let’s move on.
Mark O’Haire, I’m coming to you again because it’s Brighton versus Southampton. It’s a south coast derby, and it’ll be the last one for a while unless you want to count Brighton versus Bournemouth, which is like a three-week train ride away. Brighton minus 435 against Southampton plus 1,100. I mean, this is crazy because, all of a sudden, Southampton are value at plus one, draw at double chance, because they’re free and they haven’t got anything to really worry about. Draw 575. The over three and a half at plus 105. Mark O’Haire, these numbers are just completely off the charts and they make no sense.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. They’re pretty insane when you consider it’s Brighton Hove Albion we’re talking about. But they’re enjoying their greatest ever season, you could say, and I think last week was possibly the greatest ever performance. They were absolutely immaculate in the way in which they dispatched Arsenal at the Emirates. And they’re fascinating to watch. They’re one of the most entertaining teams to follow. They’re bold, they’re confident, they’re aggressive, and they’re really driven by the quest to try and qualify for Europe at the minute.
So they’re going to be gunning for Southampton. I think they’ll continue to commit players, commit playing out from the back as well. They almost enjoy playing under that pressure, and I think that’s what makes them so wonderful to watch, really. But yeah, I’ve said it for weeks, really, the market is in love with Brighton. And that’s not because of their actual outcomes, their actual results, which I think Stinch might touch on, but it’s what they’re producing in terms of goalmouth ability. Because over the last 16 games, Brighton are producing better underlying metrics, I’m talking about XG shots, goalmouth chances, et cetera, and so on, better than Manchester City. They’re getting into more threatening areas than Manchester City over the last 16 games, which is absolutely absurd, really.
If you look at the expected points tallies across that, Mark, Brighton are just below Man City. They’re doing everything right, basically, everything you look towards to see a team rated highly. That’s what Brighton are doing. And whoever they’re bringing into the team, whether it’s playing Caicedo at right back, or bringing in Enciso, or Welbeck coming off the bench, everyone is just slotting in and doing a job. Someone asked me in the week, “If you could buy one Brighton player and one Brighton player only, who would it be?” You can’t answer that question, because is it Mitoma, Mac Allister, Estupiñán, Caicedo, Ferguson? There’s so many exceptional candidates right now.
Speaker:
Well I wouldn’t go for Welbeck.
Mark O’Haire:
I agree, but I thought his contribution last week was superb, really. And I think from a Southampton perspective, I’m probably a bit burnt by what they did last week against Fulham at home in the match they needed to win to have any opportunity of surviving. They probably knew they were relegated anyway, but you’ve got a half empty stadium booing in the last 10 minutes, losing at home to a promoted club who spent less and achieved more. They had one shot on target, an XG tally of 0.24.
Speaker:
Ugly.
Mark O’Haire:
They sacrificed possession, barely used the counterattack, just embarrassing stuff, really. And Rubén Sellés shouldn’t be in that position, but nor should the board, really, after the way in which they’ve managed the club. But I just don’t understand what’s going on at Saints, to be honest. They went into January, they signed two strikers, one of them was a bit of a giant. They’ve signed two wingers or creative players. They’re not playing them. Oršić, the Croatian, I think he’s featured for six minutes since he signed. I just don’t understand it. Do you?
Speaker:
Champions League pedigree as well.
Mark O’Haire:
I know. And then you’ve got Stuart Armstrong and Theo Walker on the wings last week. Alcaraz up top on his own. You don’t give him an extra striker until it’s too late. You drop your goalkeeper, you leave Roméo Lavia, probably your best midfielder, just completely helpless in midfield. He can’t do it all on his own. They’re just a mess. No wins in 11. Eight defeats. Conceded three or more goals in each of the last four away. So yeah, I’m happy to leave this one alone, but I think Brighton absolutely take them to the cleaners.
Speaker:
Okay, just be careful because it’s just one of those games at Southampton where no pressure on them, can just go out and have a jolly up. And maybe them players that should have been playing for the last 10, 12 games might now get a run out. It’s called closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, Stinch.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. These prices, these Brighton prices, I think they’ve gone too far, to be honest. I mean, minus 135, they were a similar price at home to Everton, and we all know what happened there, the five-one defeat. I’m not saying that because they lost five-one that you should all of a sudden go and back Southampton, but you should just be aware that just because they are that short doesn’t mean that they necessarily win and win easily. That was complete opposite in that instance. They were minus 175 recently away at Forest. They lost three-one. They were a similar price earlier in the season against Forest where they drew nil-nil, and yet this price here, minus 145 V Southampton.
Now, Arsenal played Southampton a few weeks ago, and Arsenal were minus 500. So you’d expect Brighton to be a lot bigger because Brighton were plus 330 away at Arsenal last weekend. Yet the market is now saying Brighton exactly the same ability as Arsenal. Now, I understand what Mark’s saying there in terms of Brighton’s output over 16 game sample size, which is reasonable enough. But we know that there’s a lot of volatility in their performances. We know, you referenced Welbeck, for example, he can blow hot and cold. Other players within the team, we know they give the opposition chances defensively as well.
I mean, I looked at them since De Zerbi has taken over. They’ve collected the seventh most points, which I was a little bit surprised at. I thought would be higher. It’s only one more point than Brentford, for example. But if you looked in terms of expected points, which is what’s driving their odds there, they’re third. So you can see why the market rates them so highly. However, you look at them, they’ve only got the 11th best defense. And I think looking at these odds here, this is where we can maybe take advantage. It’s just eight clean sheets in 27.
If we look here at the goal line, goal line’s set at 3.5, overs at plus 105. Brighton over two and a half goals there. You have to pay minus 125 to see three Brighton goals. But if you back both teams to score, it’s minus 120. So you’re getting a better price and you only need to see two goals in the game from either team. Whereas, if you’re trying to get a similar price on Brighton team goals, it’s shorter odds, and I think you’re asking for a lot just for Brighton to contribute. If you back over three and a half, you need to see four goals at plus 105. It could finish one-one and you’re going to get paid out at minus 120 and you’ve only seen two goals.
So the market says that Brighton are going to win three-nil, basically, and I just think everything we know about football says that that’s not as true as the odds suggest. And also, Southampton have contributed recently. They scored three at Arsenal, for example. They scored at Newcastle. They scored three at home to Spurs. They scored at home to City. And the other thing that was a tipping point for me going for both teams to score here at the prices was I just feel like Brighton have played an awful lot of football recently. They’ve got a game tonight away at Newcastle, which is obviously a very tough place to go, and this game on Sunday will be their eighth game in less than a month. Yeah. I just think that that football might ultimately catch up with them. Yeah, I think Southampton are a good bet to get on the score-sheet. I mean, Southampton just to score is minus 130. That’s probably the better bet because then you’re just relying on Southampton contributing, but I’m happy just to push that price up a little bit by saying that Brighton do contribute as well.
Speaker:
I just thought Brighton don’t score three and that’s minus 105, under two and a half for a side like… I mean, when do you turn up and think, “Okay. We’re definitely giving the home side three goals?”
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, [inaudible 00:48:09] to hear the…
Speaker:
Well, exactly, and Brighton have been beaten recently and have failed to score in a few games as well. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because Brighton-Southampton is, yes, Povador says, “It’s a tricky one.” It certainly is. But both teams to score, minus 120. You’ve got Southampton just to score at minus 130, and Brighton not to score three is at minus 105. So there is ones there if you’re brave enough to press the button.
Let’s move on to what I had down next game. I had this as a title decider last July when they came out. Man City minus 375. Chelsea plus 950. The draws is at plus 525. Stinch, under or over three at minus 120. I can tee you up here because over one and a half goals first half, not over one and a half goals, for Man City, so just like a one-one or a two-one at halftime is massive plus money.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. This one’s a difficult one for me because while we’re speaking, we don’t know what’s happened in the Arsenal game. I mean, if we assume Arsenal win because they’re the heavy odds on favorite, then it means Man City must win to lift the title. And I think that’s all the motivation that they need to get the title wrapped up. They can focus on these games in hand by rotating the players, and they can put all their focus in the FA Cup final and then the Champions League final a few weeks later. So yeah, if we think of it like that, then, yes, I think siding with a goal heavy game involving City is rinse and repeat almost. I think City have scored more goals in the first half than they have in the second half, which also backs up your point as well. And you’re also not fully reliant on City just contributing themselves. Chelsea could obviously join the party, but-
Speaker:
One-one.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course. Of course. I mean, it’s difficult to trust Chelsea under Lampard. Obviously just one win so far in his tenure. And I think Mark referenced him picking the lineup as if he was picking balls out of a bag, which is something I could definitely understand with some of his team selections. But Chelsea has spent millions. They’ve sent more than Man City. They should be contributing and they should have some sort of viable plan that leads them to creating goal scoring chances and ultimately taking these chances. There’s a reason that somebody once paid over a hundred million for João Félix. So I do think, again, City… I mean, as you say, if this was a title decider, Flash, there’s no way Man City would be minus 375, would they? Absolutely no chance.
Speaker:
No, it’d be like minus 170.
Mark O’Haire:
And because of that, it means that the odds of Chelsea scoring are probably overpriced, I would say, in a normal season, in what we’d associate with a typical Chelsea style at minus 120 just for them to get on the score-sheet. But there’s absolutely nothing that you could confidently bet at all because we’ve seen how poor they’ve been under Frank Lampard and the season overall. So yeah, I think I’m happy to piggyback with you, to be honest, and bet a goal heavy first half if Arsenal have won on the Saturday because then I think motivation could be a lot less if City have already been crowned champions without kicking a ball.
Speaker:
Okay. So that’s like a lineup check, but it’s a score check, Mark O’Haire. The other one I like, and I’m waiting for someone to tell me, is Mahrez anytime scorer.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. The price I liked on this and considered quite strongly was Man City minus one and a half at minus 130. I think that’s more than fair. Chelsea, just terrible, aren’t they? They’re struggling to even see off Nottingham Forest at Stanford Bridge. Really limp defensively, so disorganized. Conceded two goals or more in four of six games under Lampard now. And yeah, he is just kind of picking players out of a hat, really, to see who wants to play week to week, really. And how João Félix isn’t getting a look in from the off is puzzling. Defensively, from set pieces, they’re atrocious. They’ve just been an embarrassment this season. They’re guaranteed to finish in the bottom half, which is astonishingly bad for a club that’s spent so much money and has got so much talent in that squad.
They’ve only won once in 17 matches against the top half. They’ve only scored nine goals in those 17 games. They’ve lost 10 of them. They’ve kept two clean sheets in the last 14. They’ve won five Premier League matches in the last 26. Just horrendous numbers when you’re heading to the Etihad against a Man City side who’ve scored 59 goals at home this season. Only three teams in history have scored 60 or more at home in a Premier League campaign. City are going to blitz that record. They’ve scored three or more goals in 13 of 18 at home. They’ve beaten all of the top seven by at least two goals or more. They’ve actually won by two or more goals in 14 of their 18 matches at the Etihad in the Premier League this season. Minus 130 for a repeat. It feels fair enough to me.
Speaker:
Yeah. I don’t think we need to complicate this game because I look down and I’ve just seen it’s plus 130 for Man City to score twice or it’s one-one at halftime. So just go straight to the official picks because we can’t really analyze because we don’t know what Chelsea’s turning up. It might be a lineup check and you just steam into the Man City minus one and half at minus 130 because you know they’re going to score two or three. You know that fresh legs are coming in. Alvarez, Foden, Mahrez, the list is absolutely endless. Or he just keeps going, because he’s got a gap now and they’ll want to win this come what may in front of their own fans.
So first half over 1.5 at plus 130. That’s not Man City team total. That is total in the game or in the first half. So first half, over one and a half, plus 130. Again, listen, I wouldn’t be surprised, and stranger things have happened, but Chelsea are two-one up at halftime, because Chelsea, on their day, are a European side and they may turn up, the attitude and the team and the ethics, and it goes out the window. But when you put top players up against top players, they do sort of have that ego and they do want to turn up. There again, Man City are Man City. They could be three up at halftime and you still get paid. So you’re just reliant on one or two of them devils showing up in the first half.
Move on to our last game. It’s Newcastle versus Leicester. Leicester trap door is creaking and they’re plus 575. They do like to score a goal and they’re minus 165 to do so. But Newcastle minus 250. Got to win this game. And remember, they’re already going to be playing Brighton from midweek as well. But over three goals at minus 125. Stinch, you go first because it’s Newcastle-Leicester. It’s all about the home side for me. Maybe Newcastle to win and both teams to score, but I don’t see anything but a Newcastle win.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah. I mean, the odds are suggesting that Newcastle to win and both teams will score. Newcastle a very short price to win. We’ve got a goal line of three. Yet Leicester to score a goal is a very short price at minus 165. So it all suggests that. Not something I want to back just because I want to see what’s happened in the Newcastle game against Brighton this evening. Let’s say Newcastle, they seem like they were destined to finish top four and now it’s a little bit up in the air. And the next two fixtures, Brighton and Leicester, I know they’re both at St. James’ Park, but they won’t be as easy as I think the odds suggest. I know two different types of fixtures, one against, obviously, a good progressive attacking team tonight, but then another one against a team allegedly who should be fighting for their lives. But we have seen maybe that to be questioned in the past weeks.
Newcastle games actually have kind of surprised me in a way. We were backing unders not so long ago, but they’ve been quite goal heavy of late. Over two and a half goals has won in seven of the last eight matches, which, as I say, I wouldn’t really associate them with the fact they’ve been keeping a lot of clean sheets. But we know for a fact Leicester haven’t kept a clean sheet for the last 21 games and Newcastle themselves have been scoring lots of goals. They’ve got Alexander Isak. He seems to be on fire. Callum Wilson scoring lots of goals as well. And again, similar to Liverpool, I feel like, they’ve got a fully fit squad and it’s difficult to try and oppose them. But I just don’t want to be backing them minus 250.
And yeah, it’s them to win and both teams to score. What I saw from Leicester is they gave up as soon as Liverpool took the lead on Monday night. So I’m not sure I’d even want to be backing Leicester to contribute, even though the market makes them very high favorite to score. But we know that Newcastle have got a very good defensive record overall in the Premier League, one of the best, if not the best. So I think actually it might be a Newcastle two-nil, Newcastle three-nil, but it’s not something I want to bet. Honestly, I think, Flash, this weekend has been one of the hardest schedules to try and price up because so much motivation you have to question and it’s just so difficult to put a number on that motivation.
Speaker:
Yeah, Newcastle beat Leicester. Leicester have got no strength at the back, and Newcastle are playing on the front foot because they’re a team. You identify Isak, but it could be Wilson, it could be Gomez. They’ve got just complete and utter team ethic, one to 18, Mark O’Haire, and they’re far too strong for Leicester.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. Stinch is talking about motivation. There’s massive motivation for both teams here, really, considering their circumstances. And yeah, I think Newcastle are quite clearly the strongest suit of the two teams. Leicester have been pretty shambolic now for a while. Monday night was quite alarming because when that opening goal did go in, I thought Leicester started okay, but when that went in, heads went down, confidence was shattered. And actually, in the second half there was questions about their character, about their desire, about their battle, which is kind of unforgivable for fans, really, who have been quite despondent about their team for a while too, that they feel like they’re already relegated. Just one win in 14. Only six points in those 14 games have been earned as well. So it’s looking pretty bleak for Leicester.
We talked about Dean Smith’s appointment being quite underwhelmed. He’s just ignored the January recruits. None of those started against Liverpool. The only summer signing to play against Liverpool was Wout Faes, who’s been a liability now for quite some time. They brought Jonny Evans back for his first league start since October. He looked off the pace. I think that’s massively concerning because, as Stinch said, this clean sheet or the run without a clean sheet is now at 21 since the World Cup. Their record against the top five this season is nine defeats in nine. Away from home they’ve lost 12 of 18 and they’ve conceded 41 goals, which over a 38 game season is their worst return since 1915. So absolutely diabolical stuff.
Against the top 12 going away, they’ve lost nine of 11. They’ve conceded two or more goals in 10 of those as well. I fully expect Newcastle to score at least twice here. But I will bank on Leicester getting a goal. You said at the start, they do get like to get a goal, especially away from home. They scored 15 of 18 away games. They’ve scored in 13 of 14 trips to the top 15, which is a crazily good record for a team who look likely to be relegated this season. And I’m assuming Brighton score against Newcastle on Thursday night at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in 16 Premier League games coming into this match too. So I think there’s an opportunity here for Leicester to strike a blow, but ultimately, Newcastle should be too strong, too powerful. I just think the price of Newcastle, minus 250, you look at the overs, minus 125 for over three where you need four goals or more to be paid, but we can get… what? … plus 185 on Newcastle to win and both teams scoring, which is a huge leap when you consider Leicester are tiny prices just to score.
Speaker:
Yeah. I mean, I’ve just gone a little bit more careful where I’m not reliant on Leicester because I’ve actually gone with Newcastle halftime, full-time. I think they come out the traps, I think they’re like shot, like the old… What was it? Like the old cannonball out the cannon or the bullet out the gun. Too strong. Wilson anytime scorer at plus 100. Obviously, a lineup check because he does like to put Isak up there. They maybe play five in midfield. But they overrun Leicester for me, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they score three. And by the way, Andre Marriner, thanks for the information out of the chat, Andre Marriner is the referee. He’s given five penalties in the last 11 games. So find out who’s on the pitch, who’s definitely going to be taking the Newcastle penalties. You know that probably it’s Vardy for Leicester, but I would probably say it’s Callum Wilson for Newcastle.
Let’s have a little look at the official pick of our final game. Newcastle, both teams to score plus 185. Newcastle halftime, full-time plus 110. I think that that crowd, they come up, they get in front, that is it, game over, and hopefully then Leicester get a consolation for the plus 185 for Mark O’Haire. Time for a Q&A. Be lively because we’ve been here two weeks already. We’ve only got two weeks to go. But I’d like you to subscribe if you haven’t and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you like odds and props then type in betustv.com/odds. And if you want a $50 free bet, type in betustv.com/50. Okay, let’s have a little look. Any options for tonight? That’s obviously, what, Newcastle versus Brighton? I think Newcastle win and both teams to score could be a way to go again, Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
I’d take overs and BTTS and then you don’t really care who wins. I think Brighton are more than good enough to get a result there.
Speaker:
Yeah, I like that. Stinch, agreed?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. I also point out that Brighton double chance is minus 115. Talked about Brighton being priced at really, really short. Yeah, they’re plus 270 away at Newcastle. So there’s some disconnect there. How come that Newcastle are rated so much higher than Brighton? So yeah, I think Brighton could contribute, but yeah, you’re better off doing the both teams and overs because, as I say, I think all these matches might just catch up with them.
Speaker:
Yeah. And the other thing is Newcastle are at home and they can give themselves a little bit of breathing space. And remember that Newcastle getting into the Champions League is almost like them winning the Premier League in this first full year. Okay. Anytime goalscorer tonight, well, you’ve just got a look at maybe the likes of Mac Allister, the likes of Wilson, Murphy. I mean, the list is endless. Have a little look. Let’s have a look. Mitch, we’ll talk about that one prior. Newcastle, pony’s pick. Newcastle moneyline, pony’s picks. Okay, listen, let’s go with the best bets, please.
Okay. Remember, Mark O’Haire did add one. He’s added one. Forest and Arsenal, both teams score in over two and half at minus 105. Newcastle, both teams to score is at plus 185. Fulham-Palace, both teams to score in over two and half at plus 125. Stinch, Fulham-Palace over two and half at plus 100. Brighton-Southampton, both teams to score minus 120. For me, Liverpool halftime, full-time plus 125. Everton moneyline at plus 260, although I do think they score twice at plus 155.
Man City-Chelsea, first half over 1.5 goals plus 130, and that is Chelsea could score twice. Basically, it’s combined. It’s not just Man City team total. Newcastle, halftime, full-time plus 110. Couple of ATSs that I like, but they’re not official because I haven’t got all day to put them in, is Wilson at around plus 100 and Mahrez around plus 135, plus 140. Mark O’Haire, Mark Stinch, from myself, from BETUS, have a great weekend, boys, but remember to follow at BetUS TV. And there was one thing I wanted you to do. Stinch, any chance of you taking a picture at Anfield and posting it and copying in at BetUS TV, please?
Mark O’Haire:
Sure. Yep. No problem.
Speaker:
Well, you say, “No problem.” I bet I’m saying to you Monday, “What happened to that picture?”
Mark O’Haire:
The internet’s not the best in Anfield, FYI.
Speaker:
Oh yeah, that’s well [inaudible 01:04:59]-
Mark O’Haire:
Maybe outside the ground.
Speaker:
Exactly. So listen, we’ve got plenty coming up. We’ve got Serie A and we’ve got La Liga, Bundesliga tomorrow. And if you like your other sports, it’s the Preakness this weekend. It’s the second golf major from Oak Hill. So come on, let’s have it. From BetUS and from myself, you take care.
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