Mark O’Hare:
Yeah, and myself.
Flash:
Oh man, don’t go overboard about it, you know what I mean. Okay, and if that one’s too enthusiastic for you, then his mate, he is an odds compiler for all over the world and especially soccer and his job is to find us holes even if they get beat. You want to be on the right side when you’re putting your money down in that smart stinchcomb. If it is your first time, then you are late to the party. You’re almost like an Uber driver picking up the guests as everyone’s leaving because Mark will be called stench.
Mark O’Hare, crazy day on the final day. We’ve got to try and look at maybe some value here on teams that are not going to be that bothered, checked out, got a bit of sun cream on. So are we looking at maybe a few draws?
Mark O’Hare:
Maybe. It’s always quite hard to tell because the dynamic of these matches can change from the time we’re talking to now to maybe halftime even after an hour or so because in the social media age scores will filter through to different stadiums. I know a couple of weeks ago we were so excited towards the end of the season because they were so much still to play for a title race, a top four battle and about eight or nineteens in the mix to try and survive from the Premier League. But obviously things aren’t quite as overwhelming as they were back then. Basically just got our relegation battle on our hands this weekend and three big games. But yeah, I think we’ve probably got a few opposing views based on markets and lines and prices, but eager to hear your arguments and I’ll give mine because I think I’ve found some lines and prices, which I really can get behind and put some decent ooph and cash behind because yeah, this [inaudible 00:04:47] time of the seasoning end up getting some silly prices and some silly lines because teams are in desperate need of the points.
So others as you say, may be on the beach, may have checked out, but that doesn’t mean they’re just going to walk over and let the opposition just take the points and move on. So yeah, I mean we’re talking off-air about the high goal lines and almost all the matches. Normally the end of the season can be a bit of a shootout, but it’s been hard to find some really interesting goal lines. But yeah, I found a few, which I’m really keen to support anyhow.
Flash:
Oh, it’s mostly enthusiastic. You’ve been, so maybe you’re just going to pick up the money late on. Stinch, what’s the last day of the season normally like for lines or is it one of those where the don’t go against the obvious or go against the obvious and also you as Mark says, you must play live because if you know that a team’s got to go and push for it, then there’s going to be a chance of counter attacking. Or if a team’s hanging on in there, then maybe we might see cards or we might just see two go, “Okay, I’m happy, you happy, that’s the end of that.”
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think you just need to be consistent in your approach. For example, if you are a person that likes betting on teams that need to win against teams that don’t need anything, then keep going down that route. Don’t go, “Okay, well I backed two or three last season and none of them won,” but the reasoning was sound. If the reasoning is sound, that’s the most important part of analyzing whether to place the bet because once the bet is placed, you can’t control what happens on the pitch. So it’s about just making sure, I think you’re consistent in your approach. Generally last day of the season, we do see an increase in goals. I’m sure Mark will come onto it a bit later. Generally it’s because teams just take the hand break off with nothing to play for or they’re the teams that actually are desperate and they throw more men forward [inaudible 00:06:38] than either their score goals or they leave more caps at the back.
So generally that means that we won’t see many draws because games that have higher goals mean it is harder basically for draws to happen. If we have low scoring games where we only have one or two goals, that’s a higher chance of 0-0 and 1-1. Whereas we’re having games with four, five, six goals for example. It’s harder. There’s more scores that can happen than the 2-2 and 3-3 score lines. So I’m looking forward to the relegation battle because we’ve got three teams here that all need something to guarantee safety, but the hilarious thing for me is none of them have managed to win during the season, so why are they suddenly going to be able to win on the final day of the season? So it’s going to be really intriguing. I’m picking these matches and basically I think me and Mark in the same boat, we’re very happy to oppose the narrative that if you need to win then you should win. And yeah, I think there are some odds that we can definitely take advantage of final weekend.
Flash:
But don’t look past the obvious. If you need to win and you’re at home, then the odds are definitely going to be in your favor. Let’s have a little look at the records because the records a painful viewing for me. It’s probably been one of my worst and yet it’s probably been one of my best inplay live seasons, but the records don’t lie at minus 24 and basically that’s all down to your host and I promise that next season I will be better because I picked up a few tidbits this year that have actually come off okay and I’ll take some advice or some experience from other guests on other shows. Okay, we’re going to have a little look. By the way, Villa play Brighton. We’re not going to go to these games quite yet, but Villa play Brighton and there’s Europa League consequences, Conference League, then we got Spurs, have got something to play for.
So outside of the Champions League, even though Liverpool could leapfrog over Manchester United for the fourth place, there’s plenty going on just outside the main party. So let’s kick off with our first game. Almaz, Danny, Giddy, Vlad, Jr. Mitch all in there. Mitch is on the golf course by the way. Keep your head down Mitch and you can watch this later. You don’t have to watch us and then blame us for you shooting 95. Brentford versus Man City. Brentford at plus 310, Man City minus 130, the draws at plus 300. Man city minus half minus 130. It’s one of those. Is it goals? Are we actually going to see Man’s City mess about because Brentford had been absolutely superb at home and not too bad away Mark O’Hare?
Mark O’Hare:
Yeah, they have. Well they’ve won away at Man City didn’t they at the Etihad had earlier in the season, but yeah, you were saying do you just take the obvious route and I guess the obvious bet here is to back Man City at that kind of price, but I’m not going to steal Stinch’s thunder even if I’ve let the cat out of the bag already. But yeah, they had a 12 game winning streak until Wednesday night at Brighton. Haaland had that goal disallowed late on which denied them a 13th win on the spin really. But they have started to rest and rotate. They’re scored a little bit now since the title was confirmed last weekend. We’ve seen Ortega in goal, Calvin Phillips come into midfield, Cole Palmer getting minutes as well, but the treble is most definitely on and the odds on City winning both the FA Cup and the Champions League are pretty minuscule now.
But it did complicate things a little bit for me because they’re playing United next weekend in the FA Cup and obviously into the week after. So is Pep going to approach this match at Brentford with his best 11 to get them some game time in their legs and keep them tuned up for the next couple of weeks or is he going to continue to give minutes to his squad members and it’s very difficult to second guess where Man City are at head wise and selection wise for this match and it’s impossible to know really. What we do know is their reserves that are still better individually than what Brentford can offer. So you would still expect a strong united team to get the points and get the job done but obviously don’t need to. Things has already done and dusted but yeah, I guess Brentford without Ivan Toney, you’d expect them to be weaker but I think Stinch talked about this last week, I might be wrong but their record without him this season has actually been pretty good.
It’s only a small sample but the last four games they’ve won three drawn one and they’ve scored 10 goals. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have scored nine of those and they’ve actually formed quite a good effective partnership together. So yeah, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Brentford got on the scoresheet here, made a bit of a game of things they have nothing really left to play for. They can still qualify for Europe but it looks a tall order considering they’re at home to City and that are at home to Brighton and Spurs are away at Leeds so they have to have a few things fall in their place first but they are indecent winning form. They only lost twice at home all season. As I say they won away at City in the reverse. They do have that ability and that approach that can ruffle feathers.
So I do expect them to be competitive but ultimately it comes down to price when you look at these matches and it’s incredibly rare to see Man City at minus 130 against any side outside of the elite and even then, you probably can count on one hand how many times City have been this price all season. So yeah, it’s going to be a nice sunny weekend in London. They’ve got two massive finals to look forward to. If you rely on City to put their best foot forwards, they should be winning this match and the price certainly allows it to get on side too.
Flash:
Okay, I don’t see four goals. I mean I watched this game last year and it was painful for me. I think did it end nil nil or something like that? I think there was a late maybe Diaz goal for Man City chalked off. I think it was a really, really frustrating game. I don’t see four goals in this game. Vlad just a little bit of advice because you’ve gone with Brentford double chance and both teams to score at plus 175. That means you’re probably pushing for maybe the one one. Do the one one then maybe plus 650 rather than the plus 175. Stinch, I just don’t see four goals. I think the under three minus 130, I think that’s it because I think if Man City get one nil up, that will be curtains.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, but I think it’s always dangerous to oppose goals in Man City games. We’ve seen multiple times this season them winning two, three, four goals in the reverse fixtures.
Flash:
On the road though, on the road we’re talking about a different Man City who probably will make changes.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, but as we’ve mentioned already we know final day this season the goals increase as well. So that’s why we’ve got a total, I mean actually to be fair that’s a normal total you’d expect to see with the Man City. But yeah, with the goals increasing it’s not something I would want to oppose. I mean I struggled really for this final weekend in terms of bets. I remember last season had a lot of success on betting on goal heavy games because the lines were 2.5 or 2.75 but with the lines at three in nearly every game I think very, very difficult I thought to try and find some angles of joint.
So that’s why I’ve taken the plunge and taken Man City at minus 130. They were a little bit shorter so I’m not really sure why they’ve drifted a little bit more whether people think after last night against Brighton they didn’t look very good but I mean that’s just a bad overreaction I would say. I mean, the reason I’ve gone for it is because they were minus 800 in this fixture last season and now there’s no Ivan Toney to go along with that. Tony scored 35% of Brentford’s goals this season. Man City don’t need to win but again, that’s why we’re getting the price of minus 130 and not the minus 800 of last season. Yes they could go out and play in a carefree, don’t care if they win manner but I think given that they didn’t be Brighton and they play Man United, they’ve got a week off until they play Man United in the cup final.
I just don’t think Guardiola want to go into that game six days later without a win underneath them. They probably will rotate of course, but they left the likes of Grealish and a few others at home last night and they had a very youthful bench and regardless of what team they put out, I think we know that they’re very strong across all areas and given the fact that Brentford are without their main striker, I think it’s up to… It’s basically will be up to Man City, how they approach it and whether they want to win. I just think that Guardiola won’t want to have another game without a win after, as Mark said, 12 successive victories going into the final stage of the season and then them going for this treble essentially. They’re heavy faves against Man United, heavy faves against Inter Milan so they’re overall they’re well favored to lift the treble but I just don’t think you really want to be going into those games without a win under your belt and playing it, playing on some good football and creating chances because let’s be honest, last night I think Brighton were the deserved winners, really. City were lucky to get out of that with a point regardless of the [inaudible 00:16:00].
Flash:
But they’re not also runs are they Brighton? Brighton are probably one of the best five sides at playing the way that Man City would not want you to play.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I mean Brighton are a fantastic footballing team and deserves all the credit in the world and they’re going to finish sixth in his first season and he took over obviously midway through the season as well. So yeah, a lot of credit to Brighton so yeah, I just think Man City at this price should be backed. I’d rather back Man City at minus 130 than Everton at minus 250.
Flash:
No, yeah, totally. No I get it. I just don’t see four goals. I would even say that you could maybe couple it maybe Man City, go with Man’s City win to nil at maybe like plus 140 and maybe have the draw on your side at plus 300 because again I think that unless… I don’t think Man City score early, but I just feel as if maybe the under’s first half because I just feel as if Man City get themselves in front they’re going to be like a cat with a toy but I’m talking hot air because I haven’t actually got a pick. So let’s have a little look at the first official pick of game one of five and it’s Man City money line minus 130, just not seen that number and that’s why we get enticed in. So Stinch’s just gone money line minus 130 Man City to win at Brentford but minus 130 also for the under three. People are liking Brentford double chance but that brings in the draw as well at plus 300.
Let’s go to probably the biggest game for me anyway because Everton at minus 220. Yeah, do I think they’ll win the game? Yes. Do I want to be getting involved at minus 220? No. Bournemouth at plus 575, nothing to play for. Are they going to be spoilers? Draw is at plus 370. Everton to score twice is minus 200, which I think is crazy Stinch because one nil is good enough for Everton even though it will be nervy. It’s a home side or nothing for me but it’s in how we turn that into value.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, so Everton currently two points clear of the relegation zone. They have got a worse goal difference than Leicester so if they were to draw and Leicester win, Everton would be sucked in. So yeah, they do need to win but that’s obviously emphasized by the odds of minus 220 but they got a lot of injury problems. Calvert-Lewin I think is now going to be absent as well, which is their main goalscorer and they’ve been feeding off scraps all season really in terms of the contributors for top goalscorer. Dwight McNeil was seven followed by Doucoure and your favorite player Demarai Gray on four.
Flash:
Is he still playing?
It’s a joke isn’t it? It’s a joke that.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I mean you look at underneath the goalscorers you go to assists and you’ve got Alex Iwobi there with seven, Dwight McNeil with three. Third on that list is Michael Keane with two and that’s sort of…
Flash:
What about Demarai Gray? Is he not got many assists?
Mark Stinchcombe:
No, no, no, no.
Flash:
He’s played all season though nearly every game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
He just scored one good goal.
Flash:
It must be a misprint. He must have at least one.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I’m not sure. I would have to go in and have a look but he’s certainly not got more than one anyway or more exactly that way.
Flash:
And he still gets a game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
So there’s no way he can be back in Everton here at minus 120. I emphasized this at the beginning of the show. I mean if you are consistent, I don’t like it. I do not like backing teams that need to win artificially short prices just because you think the other team’s not going to turn up. In my mind long term you will make a loss I believe. But if you’ve shown, if you’ve got a system, if you’ve proven that you can make it pair because you don’t bet them all blindly, you pick and choose your battles, maybe you pick high handicaps. So for example, you back at Everton minus two for example at big prices and long term you only if you get in that plus, I don’t know, 350 something like that, you only need to be correct one out of three times to make a profit and if that’s your approach then yep, fire and crack on, keep doing it, keep turning the profit.
But yeah, there’s no, absolutely no way I could be backing Everton. I mean I want to oppose them but I’m not… I think the essay I found better bets in the end this week than backing Bournemouth double chances essentially a plus 150. I’m not going to get that excited. I’d rather a bet Bournemouth to win to be honest or bet Bournemouth with over 1.5 goals or Bournemouth to win an over 1.5. That was around about plus 750. I’m just slightly concerned that Bournemouth might have checked out after, I mean they had quite a big celebration when it was confirmed they were staying up and since then they’ve lost their last three games so I just wondered if they’ve maybe checked out a little bit. But yeah, I say that Everton have failed to win nine of their last 10 Premier League matches and a minus 220 to win. You just can’t go near it at all. I mean they’ve won seven games all season. I think Mark mentioned that they’ve obviously…
Flash:
But you can put all that behind you if you get given… If you get given as a professional footballer, you get given 95 minutes to go and keep your premiership status against the side who potentially… Everton will be at 110% intensity. Bournemouth, they might be at 60 or 70, then you put in the Goodison crowd they will lift these players over the line. Everton win the game, I’m not having it. This is my number one game to watch over the weekend. I cannot wait and I do not see anything and I’ve had enough of your negativity Stinch. So let’s go to a bit of positivity for the blues in Mark O’Hare.
Mark O’Hare:
Not going to get it from me.
Flash:
Oh, no. Chat, come on chat. I need the chat.
Mark O’Hare:
So Everton being priced up as favorites the way at Wolves last week I thought was a nonsense but to see them at minus 220 at home to Bournemouth is possibly one of the worst prices I’ve seen in the Premier League this season and beyond really. Look, Everton may well win this match, but betting isn’t always about what you think will happen. It’s about playing the probabilities around the events occurring and in this instance the market has drastically overestimated Everton’s chances of being able to win a football match because they’re not that good. As Stinch has said they won once in the last 10 games. That’s despite needing to win all of those matches. They’ve always been in this trouble. They’ve always needed to win. They’ve still only managed to win one of the last 10. They’ve won two of 12, they’ve only won four times in 17 under Dyche since the start of February. Four clean sheets in that sample and they’ve scored multiple goals on only four occasions. Take out their chief goal scoring threat as well. Oh, interesting. It’s a disgraceful price in all honesty.
Flash:
Hang on, hang on. Chief goal scoring threat. They’ve not had one all season to be fair to you.
Mark O’Hare:
No, but Calvert-Lewin, you’ve seen him in recent weeks. He has transformed that attack. They have looked so much more threatening with him and the team linking play, providing that physical presence, running the lines. We saw the performance at Brighton and sure that was a bit of a freak result and a freak game but he was instrumental to all of it. He’s incredibly influential. Without him where are the goals going to come from? That’s my massive concern about this Everton team. They have scored the fewest home goals in the Premier League all season. 15 goals in 18 games. Only Southampton and Leicester have won fewer home matches. So despite what we think about the Goodison being a really intimidating place to play, they’ve only managed five wins there all season. Yet we’re talking about them as minus 220 shots to win here. Bournemouth, yeah, they’ve got nothing to play for. Wolves had nothing to play for last weekend and Everton had to scramble a 99th minute goal to take a point in a match they had to win.
Flash:
Wolves were better than them as well.
Mark O’Hare:
[inaudible 00:23:48] They have to win here. I just…
Flash:
Wolves were better than Everton.
Mark O’Hare:
So just looking at the price, Everton had been minus money once all season. I’m not sure what it is in American odds but they were 1.89 in decimals at home to Forest. That was back in August, so that was nine months ago. The shortest price Everton have been since then has been plus 120. They’re mine is 220 here. It’s just a staggeringly desperate price and Bournemouth of what, plus 575. The only times they’ve been bigger is home and away against Man City as well as away trips to Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea, Man United, Brighton and Arsenal. Everton are not in that same bracket. Bournemouth have actually been very good against the bottom six. They’ve won six of those nine matches. They’ve won away at Forest, Leicester and Southampton. They’ve only lost once by one goal in those fixtures as well. So sure they might have checked out but I think their performance last weekend, albeit at home but against Manchester United was incredibly competitive and I think Gary O’Neal is type of character who won’t allow his team just to slack off and sit down and allow Everton to walk all over them.
So I’m going to back Bournemouth plus one and a quarter, which means Everton can win this match even by one goal and I will still make a half stake profit. If Bournemouth win or draw we get a full stakes payout. So that’s the way I’m going to play it. Since Arsenal were beaten in Everton’s first game under Sean Dyche, they’ve taken 15 points from 16 league games. That’s relegation form despite those matches involving games against Leeds, Forest, Wolves, Palace and Leicester. They’ve also required three equalizers in the 89th minute or later since the beginning of April. They could easily have been relegated already so minus 220 on that team, absolutely an abysmal price. So the bet I’ve taken has actually won in 35 of Everton’s 37 games this season. They’ve only twice won by two goals or more. So yeah, I’m going to put faith in the cherries being competitive because I just think the prices and the lines have just gone drastically over the top here just far too, far too in Everton’s favor.
Flash:
Yeah. Okay. Almas said how about conquers? I think you probably mean corners, but if you do play conquers and one of his Everton one is use Bournemouth, you can go that way. I just feel as if you’ve got to go for Everton unless Everton go up early. I think it’s all about the home side. I’m pinning my faith in the home side, but not just because I want Everton to win but I want Leicester to go down. So again, I’m looking at it from a [inaudible 00:26:12] Jewel but I am betting with my heart as well because everything their boys say are facts. But again, you give a team professional side at home, especially at Everton who have been in the top flight for longer than nearly anybody else in the history of the game, then I’m more than happy to go with them but not at minus 220 .I’ll find another way and this is the way that I found it.
I don’t see four goals in the game. I see maybe a two nil, two one and if it is two one, Mark O’Hare still picks up half stack. Bournemouth plus 1.25 at minus 125 but for me it’s Everton at under three and a half at plus 100. Happy with that and I will be cheering them on and I will find a nice blue shirt to wear when I’m cheering them on.
Let’s go to game number three.
Okay, Arsenal versus Wolves. Arsenal minus 280, Wolves at plus 645. The drawer is at plus 465. Arsenal to score three at plus 110. I think this will be a party atmosphere because as much as I hear Arsenal though, they bottled it, they jacked it in, they completely threw it away, they handed it, no they didn’t. They had an outstanding season home and away and just because there was eight points basically it’s like a 1500-meter race, there was still a lap on the half to go and you’ve got to complete the whole race before you know exactly where you are and then where you are at the end. This is what you deserve Mark O’Hare and for me Arsenal great season. I think they’re going to get a great reception and I think they’re going to put on a show and I’m happy with Arsenal to score three in this game at plus 110.
Mark O’Hare:
Yeah, it’s hard to know where Arsenal are at. I’m still ruing not opposing them last week. I thought it was a real banana skin match for them to go away to Nottingham Forest and I took goals over a Forest led selection obviously ended up with nothing. The thought process behind it was I didn’t think either team would keep a clean sheet and I felt the safer option was supporting goals when both sides could contribute as opposed to putting those eggs in the Forest basket. But Arsenal did not look capable of bouncing back from that recent adversity. It never materialized. They’ve now lost back to back games without scoring and I think they’ve prepared pretty impotent in both of those matches actually. They picked a full strength side from players available at the City ground. Barely created a chance of notes really and perhaps the mental baggage of the last couple of weeks has caught up with them.
They are a very young team, they have drastically over performed expectations and as you say, they’ve had a fantastic season so perhaps this is their opportunity to sign off the season in style at the Emirates in front of the home supporters. But yeah, just a little question mark behind them at the minute for me, because of what we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks and as you say in the last match, Wolves were the better team against Everton last week. Conceded later on. Their record outside of Molineux is pretty horrendous. They’re winless in seven now. They’ve lost five of those including the last three by an aggregate of 10 to one. They are the lowest scoring team in the Premier League with only 31 goals. Only 12 of those arrived outside of the Molineux as well and their only wins away came against bottom four opposition.
So we’ve had rumors this week starting to swirl around about the future of Julen Lopetegui’s future with Wolves as well because he was assured some promises about a transfer fund and the ability to rebuild the squad. But you’ve got the likes of Ruben Neves, Raul Jimenez, Daniel Podence, Diego Costa, Joao Moutinho, Adama Traore, all likely to move on this summer. Lopetegui been not given those assurances but there is money to spend. They are hampered by FFP at the minute. So yeah, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Wolves almost sort of roll over here because of the situation and the question marks surrounding their future right now. I think last week was the opportunity for those big name players to have their last hara in front of the home support. So yeah, perhaps they are one of the teams who are going to be on the beach early and this could be a comfortable home win but as a betting heat there was nothing really in it for me, just too many theories and question marks to make anything substantial so I’ve happily left it alone.
Flash:
Yeah, I’m going to make this official so I’m just going to say it now before I go to Stinch just to give the graphics boys a little bit of a chance to add this at the best bets at the end. I’m going to Arsenal to score three goals here, Stinch. I think that the crowd are going to be absolutely party central. Coming second’s great and listen, we all get a bit like angry and a little bit over reactive at times, but when we sit down in the cold light of day, they’ve had an unbelievable season and these young boys, I think we could have maybe three or four different scorers.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, arsenal really should be congratulated with how well they’ve done this season. They were forecasted to finish fourth or fifth. They’ve comfortably finished second and were obviously leading the Premier League for most of the season, but when they were leading the Premier League they were overachieving. So the fact that they’ve regressed to the mean and the team that would just play at par have gone on to win the league shouldn’t be something that’s frowned upon. Yes, of course the way it’s worked out is and has gone in some of the games where Arsenal have dropped points in winning positions looks like they’ve messed up or bottled it as people have labeled them, but it’s just actually variance moving its way back towards where it should be at. So they should really be congratulated on a great season. But I’m in agreement with Mark, this match is really, really ugly to call because yeah, I don’t know what Arsenal are mentally after the last couple of games to lose away at Forest after losing at home three nil to Brighton without scoring in either.
It was not very good and I think they are taking it a bit personally. I think they aren’t maybe seeing it for a successful season. I think they’re seeing it as a disappointing one. So in actual fact of all the games this weekend, I think this one actually could play out in a rather drab affair because Wolves, as Mark alluded to having an issue right now I would say in terms of the manager, obviously he’s done a fantastic job when he came in. Wolves were in the allegation zone and were, I think I thought I didn’t think they would get out of it and they got out of it fairly easily in the end but it seems like he might not stay on. They’ve got lots of players that should have maybe left previously in terms of going on to alleged big bigger clubs. Ruben Neves for example, Raul Jimenez looked like he had played his last home game last weekend after with the lap of honor afterwards.
So I wondered if this might just be a glorified friendly in the end and I could actual fact see it finishing very low scoring. Maybe Arsenal do turn on, but I think that’s already factored into the odds when you’re having to get… You’re only getting plus 110 for Arsenal to score three. I think it’s not a big ask considering what Arsenal have done most of the season, but given that where they are right now, I just wouldn’t want to be chancing it. So yeah, I think this is one to steer clear from in my mind unless you watch the opening five minutes and see, “Oh okay Arsenal are fully on it.” Obviously we haven’t touched on either that Martinelli’s out and he’s been a big contributor for them this season. But yeah, if Ødegaard’s on form, Saka just signed a new contract and if the crowd are well behind them to give them the sendoff they deserve after a fantastic season getting them back into Champions League football, then yeah I would maybe want to get behind them but it’s a handicap you associate with Man City and we know Arsenal are on the level of man city long term so yeah, happy to swerve it for sure.
Flash:
Yeah, Smith Rowe may well come back in on that left end side. Missed most of the season with injury. I wrote down here minus one and a half that brings in the two nil at minus 105. I’m actually going to go with the official pick of actually then team total over two and a half and I think that was plus 110 but I’m going with Arsenal at over two and a half also that minus 120. I quite like Wolves not to score at plus 145 as well so this is another game that will be on in front of me and I’m really looking forward to Arsenal putting on a show for the fans and the fans appreciating it. That’s all in an ideal world. Let’s go.
Adam saying it’s a beach ball but let’s hope that one of them is enjoying it and one of them don’t care. Okay, Leeds versus Spurs or Leeds versus Tottenham. Leeds are at plus 175, Spurs plus 135. The draw at plus 285. Leeds really have to go and win this game but they’re plus 100 to score twice. Spurs, you can’t trust Stinch. Where are we at with this game because I thought the over three at minus 120 could be a way to go but it just depends on other results. This is one of those where you’ve got to know what’s going on elsewhere.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think the over three. I don’t really like to back games to be over three goals in the Premier League as a general rule, but if I was forced to, I think this one would be high on my list because Leeds need to attack from the off. They’re two points adrift of safety and have a three goal difference worse than Everton. So if Everton were to draw and Leeds won, Leeds would still need to get that three goal turnaround as well. So they need to win and win well and also they hope that Leicester don’t win and Leicester at home to West Ham. So Leicester arguably got an easier game so it’s a huge mountain to climb for Leeds and we could see something similar to Southampton for example, a few weeks ago when Southampton played Fulham. Southampton just literally didn’t turn up, had to win to give themselves any chance staying up, just didn’t even bother turn up.
We could see that with Leeds but I don’t think we will. We got quite a ferocious home crowd up against a Tottenham team that have been poor on the road on obviously under a third manager, interim manager this season. A lot of question marks surrounding their new manager as well. The one of the favorites was the Feyernood manager who’s now committed himself to Feyernood so, but I think Tottenham can contribute for sure. You got Harry Kane who’s had a phenomenal season, really. Scored 28 goals which it doesn’t feel like he scored 28 goals given the negativity surrounding Spurs, but he has turned up again. You could say maybe Son perhaps hasn’t contributed. Lucas Moura, Kulusevski, he’s been unlucky with his injuries but spent a lot of money on Richarlison and he’s barely turned up either. So again you don’t know what you’re going to get with Tottenham but I couldn’t be backing Leeds at plus 175.
I priced up in my head a few weeks ago and I thought oh maybe Leeds will be about plus 275. But again obviously the needing to win factor has being built in here. Tottenham are currently in eighth, one point behind Villa in seventh. So Tottenham I think would need to get better result than Villa to guarantee conference league football, but do they want conference league football? I think that’s a big question mark and that probably divides a lot of Spurs fans as well because we’ve seen the success teams have when they don’t have European football’s distraction and they tend to do better in the league overall.
So I think yeah this is a basketball game basically and how do we make it pay? I think Mark’s going to tell you how to make it pay but yeah, if I was forced into a bet, I think I would take the overs but again, I just never really want to be going into a Premier League game hoping to see four goals to get paid out.
Flash:
The polarizing numbers on here Marco O’Hare are Leeds plus 100 to score twice, minus 130 not to score twice. What camp are you in?
Mark O’Hare:
Probably neither to be honest. I’d rather take the match total. I’m going to push a line further and over three you can take over three and a half goals at plus 140. Just reiterate what both of you have said really, but similar to me, I can’t trust either team at the prices. Tottenham as favorites away against anyone at the minute frightens me and Leeds the way in which they’ve been playing doesn’t feel you have confidence nor does the situation that they find themselves in and as you say, Flash, this could be a match after yeah, halftime, half an hour, even an hour where results filter through from elsewhere and Leeds already know their fate and almost submit. So quite happy to ignore both teams but neither team can defend to save their lives right now. They both pack a bit of punch going forward and that’s why I like goals.
So Spurs only won once in the last eight away games since early January. They’ve considered twice or more in six of those. They kept one clean sheet in the last 12 across all venues, five defeats in seven, two wins in 10, one of which was deeply undeserving against Brighton. But yeah, they still have that ability in forward areas to score goals. They’ve only fail to score four times all season, which is incredibly good. It’s just I think only Man City now have a better goal scoring record this season. But yeah Leeds, going back to Leeds, I remember they’d beat Forest midweek in early April and they put themselves in a great position to try and survive but they’ve managed two points from a possible 24 since then. Six defeats in eight winless games, the defeats 2-1, 3-1 4-1 5-1, 6-1. They have been collapsing far too easily and all too often really and defense has been an issue for quite some time.
Anyhow, both of these clubs have similarities in their own way. They both require major surgery really from top to bottom and yeah, it’s quite happy to just ignore both teams and instead focus on those goals because whilst over three and a half goals does look a tall total, it is the final day of the season. There is something to play for here for both teams. Ryan Mason will want to win this game for Spurs. Maybe the players have checked out but he’ll still definitely want to sign off with a win and the odds on over three and a half goals give us about a 41% chance according to the market of four or more goals. Now over two and a half goals has landed in 11 of Leeds this last 12, eight of those have gone over three and a half all twelves saw both teams scoring and at Ellen Road 44% matches have seen four or more goals.
As for Spurs, 56% of their away games have gone over three and a half and of their last 11, nine have gone over two and a half, seven over three and a half and 10 have seen both teams scoring. So quite happy to bet both teams to oblige here and you’re looking for a couple of goals more. So yeah, I think as we always say towards the end of the season, goal average do tend to increase. I think both of these two teams have been pretty rife for goals anyhow and I just think the situation about both flying themselves in will lend itself to a goal heavy game as well. So happy to back the overs and also Harry Kane to score, a plus money. Scored on the final day of the season in each of his last five campaigns. He scored in 25 different Premier League games this season, which is actually the outright most of any player in a 38 game season.
Now if he scores on Sunday, he’ll actually match Andy Cole’s record of scoring in 26 Premier League games, which came in 93, 94 when there would’ve been what, 22 teams in the top flight, which would be an incredible achievement considering how Spurs have been this season. He scored in 11 of his last 13 games for club and country. He’s scored in his last five away games for Spurs. He’s got 36 goals across all competitions for club and country and Leeds just can’t defend. So if Spurs do grab a couple of goals, Kane is surely going to be amongst it. So obviously on penalties takes set pieces as well as we saw that free kick against Brentford, which was incredible. Yeah, plus one 110 for Kane to score and plus 140 for over three and a half goals.
Flash:
Yeah, really strange game. Make sure that what’s going on, if you want to play it live in this game because again with 25, 30 minutes this might be a 65-minute game because if the others are clear and it’s gone then they’ll be crying and well we’ve seen it all before.
Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because I couldn’t go anywhere near this. Over three and a half goals at plus 140, Harry Kane anytime scorer plus 110 does look good. A lot of people are liking the Leeds to score twice at plus 100 or Spurs to score twice at minus 110. Franklin, there he is, likes Leeds to score twice.
Let’s go on to our final game because we have seventh place Aston Villa at plus 110 hosting sixth place Brighton at plus 215. Brighton guaranteed that sixth place but for Villa they’ve obviously gotten better Spurs’ score unless Spurs get beat and then they will pick up the seventh and for them the conference league is a massive, massive step forward. I’m going to stay with you Mark O’Hare because Villa to score twice at minus 135. When I first looked at this game, I thought Brighton were massive at plus 215. I can’t trust Villa but I think in Villa I’m going to want it a little bit more. Is this one of those both teams are score an over and not care who wins?
Mark O’Hare:
Yeah, that’s what I was looking towards in terms of a goals angle, but the price is pretty erected. I think it’s minus 140 so there’s a no bet really. Villa I thought were very unlucky at Anfield last week. They could easily have won that match. They were very competitive and I thought the market was quite disrespectful to them going to Anfield. We know we’ve talked about their underlying process and metrics being not as good as their actual long-term results, but what they’ve achieved under Unai Emery has been incredibly impressive regardless, especially at Villa Park actually. They did pick up that point at Liverpool, but at home they’ve won six on the spin scoring 12 goals and conceding just once. In the last 12 games across all venues they’ve considered just seven goals and very few of them are from open play as well so they’re incredibly well drilled and as you say they’re very motivated to try and get that European position.
They only need to match what Spurs do at Leeds to get it because in theory Brentford can beat Man City and supersede them on goal difference, but it’s probably unlikely that’s going to be the case. But I expect Villa to be front foot, be proactive, look to try and win this match to guarantee seventh spot in the league. And yeah Brighton, we still can go toe to toe with City on Wednesday. We’ve talked about their incredible shot data almost weekly really the fact that they’re producing better attacking numbers than Man City over a 16 game sample is incredibly impressive from Roberto De Zerbi. We know how dangerous they can be regardless of who’s playing in that starting 11th. They are a goal scoring machine, but it does put me off slightly that they may feel that their season is done because they confirmed sixth place on Wednesday night with that drawer against City, which means they will be playing Europa League football next season.
They can’t finish higher, they can’t finish lower and De Zerbi has been talking about it on a weekly basis really about Europa League being the key aim for Brighton talking about it week on week, even last week after the match. Who did they play last week? I can’t even remember now, but he talked about it even though it looked almost certain that Brighton were going to finish six because of the gold difference advantage. He was eager to confirm it regardless so where are Brighton head wise, did they celebrate after Wednesday night? I don’t know. So that’s my chief concern really. But if Brighton are the best they are being disrespected here by the market. The market is assuming they’re downing tools, which is an assumption really. And that’s one thing I probably want to leave alone really because we just don’t know where they’re at and the market made them favorites against Man United at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-finals not long ago yet they’re considered a two plus 215 shot at Aston Villa. So that doesn’t really make sense when you put it like that.
So yeah, I’m happy to leave this alone just because there is a concern that Brighton may have already achieved what they wanted to from this campaign. They might rest rotate, I don’t know, but goals is what I wanted but you’re not going to get it. You have to go to over three and a half goals for something backable, but that’s past 130 so a shorter price than Leeds-Spurs and I fancy see that a lot more.
Flash:
Yeah, I wonder if Villa was the value not to score twice at plus 105. Stinch, I’d just quite like maybe the Emery versus De Zerbi angle rather than the players because I think Brighton are miles better than Villa, but will they be at it?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, no I agree. That is the question Mark, but I’m happy to avoid answering that question in terms of not having a bet because I think the price is too big to turn down. Villa at plus 110 says they’re definitely better than Brighton. If they were equal in terms of ability, you’d expect to see Villa as the home team around about plus 125 so it says Villa are definitely the better team and I actually think Brighton are by far in the way better. So I would actually probably have this game very similarly price maybe Villa plus 160, Brighton plus 170. So if it was neutral ground, you see Brighton as favorites.
Mark mentioned the fact that Brighton were faves against United at Wembley. We talked about Brighton’s odds last week when they played Southampton. Brighton, we had to bet Brighton and then team goals whether they’d scored three to get paid out and yet now all of a sudden Brighton have given up.
I don’t think De Zerbi will let them down tools. He benched Dunk and Mac Allister against Man City so I’d expect them both to come back in. It might be Mac Allister’s final game for Brighton. Couple of the younger lads that have been integrated as the seasons progressed in Enciso and [inaudible 00:48:12], they look more than capable of contributing along with the likes of Welbeck and Ferguson. You’ve got mitoma who’s been one of the best players in the league post World Cup and I say with Villa I think they’ve heavily reliant on Ollie Watkins, maybe a little bit Jacob Ramsey as well. And we know from Emery’s time in charge, yes they’ve had a very impressive points return, but in terms of an underlying data, they’ve been very much a mid-table team so they’ve been relying on the fine margins and I don’t think that’s something you can rely on all the time as we saw maybe Anfield last weekend with Liverpool, perhaps a little bit unlucky with that second disallow goal.
So yep, I can understand the point but I’m not going to allow myself to think the Brighton have checked out and even if they have, I still think they’re a little bit too big at plus 215. Obviously as we’ve been making profit quite a lot this season on goals, but I think we’ve been a bit unlucky obviously because it’s the final day of season and obviously we have an inflated goal expectation, which means we can’t really back it. So basically, yep, very happy to back Brighton double chance at minus 125.
I can’t remember the amount of times recently, but it’s nearly been every week where Brighton have gone our favorites and here well underdogs. So it’s a very easy bet for me to get Brighton on side.
Flash:
Yeah, me too. I’ve not gone with it, but I also see Brighton scoring twice at plus 125, but I can’t guarantee that that will be enough because you just never know where this Villa side and Villa do need something. Brighton don’t, but Brighton’s just enjoying life and all the players are enjoying life. So listen, you give me freedom of the mind for a player on last game of the season, then yeah, I’ll take them every day of the week. Let’s have a little look at the official pick of our fifth and final game.
It’s Brighton plus 0.5 at minus 125. Welcome back by the way, Prop of the week. That’s where we are going next because this is one of them bets where it was such a long time ago, that I now have to decide how I’m going to propose this because Stinch you’ve put up Prop of the week this week and you can tell us what it is.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, so as I say, this week I found difficult because I wanted to back lots of heavy scoring games, but as I say, most games are a goal line of three and immediately you’re chasing both teams scoring overs. Mark mentioned that I think it was minus 140 in Villa v. Brighton, it’s like that’s a bit shorter than I wanted to go and then you’re forced into backing over three and a half goals. And again, I don’t really want to do that in some games that don’t have anything on them. So yeah, there’s definitely still a thought that both teams could just play out in a friendly manner without much attacking involved. So I noticed that on BetUS, there was a market for the total amount of goals across the games. And I remember we jokingly discussed a few weeks ago that crazy bank holiday Monday where Brighton lost five one at home to Everton, Forrest beats Southampton four three and Fulham beat Leicester five three.
They’re like, “Wow, imagine if you’d backed overs across all the games as a total.” So that gave me the inspiration really. And I saw that you could get the [inaudible 00:51:35] set at 30.5 for across all 10 matches. So I basically set an average of three per game, which as we know is the line, but we also know that the line is heavily failing overs in most of them. So I did a bit of calculating and I came up with, I thought there might be around about 35 goals final day of the season. So if we use that as an expectancy, we’d get minus 300 for over 30.5 goals, but we can get minus 120 so happy to throw that in as a bit of fun. And then you haven’t got a cheer on a specific game, you watch all 10 games, you follow the matches as the goals go in and you just get excited each time a goal goes in.
Flash:
Yeah, I’ll be amazed if either of you two get excited over anything. Here we go. Okay, so let’s have a little look. Over 30.5 goals at minus 120 put up by Stinch for the Prop of the week. Now it’s a quick Q and A coming up, but first of all I’d like to remind you to subscribe if you haven’t and why not? Because we’ve got so much coming up and it’s not just subscribed to the BetUS Soccer Channel right away. You can just subscribe to BetUS TV and then that brings you in to the NBA, which is going to be an unbelievable final, whoever gets there, MLB all through the summer and so many other sports coming up. And then it’ll be the NFL and the NCAAB. The college basketball is just an unbelievable place to be if you love your sport.
Also, if you like your odds and your props and obviously Stinch went digging for the over 30.5 total goals in the Premier League. Then type in betustv.com/odds if you want a $50 free bet on the final weekend of the season in England and in Germany, then type in betustv.com/fifty. Danny’s going, “Flash, anyway, we can do a season recap discussion season winners and losers and maybe futures would enjoy that.”
Yeah, I’ll see you probably, it’s going to be the last week of July. It’ll probably be the very last Friday in July, Danny so put it in your notebook and make sure you’ve rung that bell because we will be not notifying you when we come back. No other questions. Let’s have a little look at the best bets because we’ve been here soon we’ve done five games, I think we’ve done pretty well.
Okay, Flash, Arsenal and over two and a half goals at minus 120. Remember I did add the Arsenal team total over two and a half goals at plus 110, Everton and under three and a half at plus 100. Stinch has gone Man City money line at minus 130 and Brighton double chance or plus 0.5 at minus 125. Mark O’Hare has gone Bournemouth plus 1.25 at minus 125 I’m fancing a nice two one there. We’ll both be happy as long as Everton win. Leeds/Spurs over three and a half goals at plus 140. He’s actually taken that upper notch because the line is at three. And Leeds/Spurs, Harry Kane anytime scorer plus 110 to basically score in 26 different Premier League games. Franklin Perez, one more question then he says, “Man United money line today.” I don’t know. I don’t know. I think the pressure, I think it looks like a stale nil nil to me. Mark O’Hare just a quick one. Man United, do he win today?
Mark O’Hare:
Yeah, probably. It’s Chelsea, isn’t it?
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. It’s not Man United you can’t trust, it’s the other mob. Stinch.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, probably but they only need a point to confirm Champions League football. So yeah, it could be a drab nil nil or one one
Flash:
And that’s why we left the Liverpool game because Liverpool are at the Mighty Saints. But I would basically go for Firmino to score anytime scorer. That will be one of mine.
I will be doing a show tomorrow so basically if you’re not following, make sure you follow BetUS on Instagram and social media because I’ll be giving up a few anytime scorers. Mark O’Hare, obviously we’re going to see you for Champions League, Stinch we’re going to see you for the Europa League final on Monday.
Thank you very much for everything you’ve done this year. I know Stinch has had a couple of vacations and things like that. He has a couple of weeks after recharged them batteries but from everyone at BetUS, Mark and Mark, thank you very much. You’ve been absolute credit to everything and better than I could have expected.
So again, from everyone in the chat please thumbs up on the way out. Show us a bit of appreciation to Mark O’Hare and to Stinch. May all your bets be winners. I think we all want goals, especially if they’re coming at Goodison Park.
You take care.
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