Premier League Picks Matchday 7: Free EPL Predictions, Best Bets & EPL Odds

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash. It’s the Premier League Matchday 7 and well, European exploits, both in Champions League and Europa League give us that normal little bit a caveat. Before we go into that, let’s get the housekeeping right out of the way and it’s because we’re America’s favorite sportsbook. Now, we want to give you something, so go to betus.com and get a sign up bonus. All you got to do is put in your promo code of EPL2021. That’ll give you 125% sign up bonus up to two and a half thousand dollars. So EPL2021 are your important figures and numbers. Okay. Subscribe. If here is your first time then please feel welcome. Get yourself in the chat. We’ll have a Q;A at the end if there’s any games we don’t cover, but there’s not many games we’re not covering today because we are covering eight out of 10, so I’m sure that someone in the chat will want to know about the ninth and 10th game, because of just the way they are. Also press the bell. Press the bell means you will not miss any content at all right across the BetUS channels.

Flash:

And we have everything going full guns blazing at the moment with NFL picks, NCAAF picks. And obviously we do all the four major leagues and a little bit of Champions League as well. Now let’s get to my guests. My guests are European odds compiler on my right, which is Stinch, Mark Stinchcombe, but he’ll be known as Stinch because we’ve got another Mark, an award winning Mark from the owner of, we love betting online, UK. I hope you’re well gentleman. I’m going to come to you first Mark, because last weekend we saw a London derby where only one team turned up.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, God. Yeah, it was quite shocking really. I think you consider how strong Arsenal has been through the late nineties and early nineties, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Arsenal kind of brush to Tottenham side with such ease and Spurs just did not show any sort of battle or fight or organization or interest in a North London derby. It was quite shocking that that first 45 minutes really, and I think the second half Arsenal almost went a bit kinder on Spurs and let them back into the game. They kind of just battened down the hatches and played out the game, whereas they could have easily gone and probably got a couple more goals, but yeah, it was quite shocking really. But I guess those two teams who are possibly going in different directions right now and Arsenal had the horrendous start, but seem to be finding their feet. And Spurs, I think the early results masked what has been quite a difficult transition into Nuno’s tutorship. So yeah, I expect more difficult times to come ahead for Spurs too.

Flash:

I saw some of the Arsenal players actually smoking cigars on the pitch. They were just unbelievably comfortable in a North London derby, but I put that down to the crowd, obviously missing their North London derby, and Arsenal getting ahead very, very early. Stinch, six weeks are up. We said at the beginning of season, six weeks, and then we’ll know where we’re at. Do you think we know where we’re at?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think maybe there’s still a few more answers to some of our questions. Brentford, they’ve been quite tight and resolute and not giving much away.

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:04:21] drew last week.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Exactly. And then we see a 3-3 draw, so we’re like, “Okay, is that just a blip? Is that an anomaly?” So question marks there. Rafa Benitez has got off to a great start at Everton sitting fifth in the league already, joint second, but they have had the kindest run on paper, so it’s like are they lucky to be there? Is it something they can maintain? Is it sustainable? But again, only six games. So those sorts of questions I believe there’s still answers to them.

Flash:

Okay. Well, let’s have a little look at the records because the records are looking all healthier. I mean, I lost a couple of units last week on the official plays. Got it back in play. But listen, just look at the bottom line, it’s plus 4.04. I know that officer Stinch has been on my case already because a couple of them either on the wins or the losses, it doesn’t affect the final number, but are actually been pushes because he loves that, over two goals. And listen, every a hundred percent record of them being a push, but we’re all sitting exactly where we want to be. I think we’d all had taken this at the start of the season when we said, right, give us six weeks. Let’s find out where we’re at. Well, this is where we’re at. We’re at four units in the hardest, sharpest league in the world, so hardest, sharpest league in the world calls for proper generals to go to war with and so we’re going to war with Stinch and Mark O’Haire, let’s go.

Flash:

First game is going to be a big game, a big game for both teams because we’re going to go Old Trafford. It’s Man United versus Everton. Man United making heavy weather of their midweek tie, but also now they’ve got maybe three of their first four or five defenders not going to be playing against a Everton side that have struggled without Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, but are very, very organized. Mark O’Haire, it’s not an automatic home win this.

Mark O’Haire:

No, it’s not. There’s many reasons behind that. You mentioned that the players missing, I think Maguire being out for Man United is a big loss for the Red Devils. Lindelof and Varane looked unsure themselves in midweek against Villarreal. You talk about that game against Villarreal, which was Wednesday night. This game is the early kickoff on Saturday as well. That’s a really quick turnaround and despite the riches and the wage bill that Man United have at their disposal, that’s still a tough recovery and preparation for another game. And sure they might be able to rest and rotate and I’m sure they will in forward areas, but that’s certainly something to be aware of against an Everton team who’ve had their feet up all week and preparing for this match. And you look towards the dugout and you say, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer what’s he done this season, how has he got Man United playing? It’s very difficult to kind of find any sort of tactical side of things. What’s the approach? What’s he trying to achieve here apart from just put very good players on a pitch and hope for the best?

Mark O’Haire:

And are very fortunate to come out of that game against Villarreal with the three points. Let alone one point. The first half in particular, they were completely overrun. You go back to last week against Aston Villa, I thought Villa played the game really superbly well, played in transitions and counter attacks. Looked really strong on set pieces. Without Maguire’s presence, their center half, I think those issues could also come to the [inaudible 00:07:30]. Liverpool and Newcastle, for example have been able to grind out results when asked upon. So yeah, this is not a gimme for Man United and I certainly wouldn’t be backing short prices either.

Flash:

No, Stinch. We just cannot do that because… Look, Everton control games. Man United at the moment look like they want to be in a basketball match from end to end and also there’s going to be no Shaw, there’s going to be no Maguire. We don’t know who’s going to play at right back. So Everton are going to go there… And by the way, the only thing I think this game probably does come up with is goals.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think it’s difficult just with the caveat of no Richarlison or Calvert-Lewin. I’m not sure what the latest is on them, whether they’ll make it. But I do agree, they’re too short. Everybody can see just using their eyes, they’re not playing fantastic football, are they? And they’re getting out of jail basically with Ronaldo, essentially. I think it was Lingard away at West Ham a few weeks ago, two weeks ago that he bailed them out there. So it’s not as if they’re playing free flowing, entertaining football. And this is fourth V fifth in the league. Let’s remember that. They aren’t miles part in terms of the lead table, so maybe the odds should be a lot closer than what they are, especially with United’s underwhelming performances.

Flash:

Yeah. Especially when they get beat against Aston Villa last week. Fair enough, it could have been a 1-1 because they had a missed penalty late on in the game, but let’s have a look at them numbers because I always think that because in the big team, big name, they get respected and then we can actually find value against them because the moneyline up -190 against an Everton side who under Benitez are going to be very, very organized and +600’s a bit of a disrespect full number. But Stinch +100, +1 -110. Does that mean that we can maybe take over and not to steam rolled?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I’d be tempted. That would be the angle I would look towards. Say the only issue is no Calvert-Lewin or Richarlison, so it’s kind of like who’s going to score the goals. Last week against Norwich it was a penalty and a Doucoure goal. Doucoure is generally a holding midfielder, so sort of not expecting Demarai Gray to keep on scoring, don’t expect Andros Townsend to contribute that many. Rondon’s been away in China for a few years. So yeah, that would be my only sort of caveat with that is if you United take the lead and Everton come out looking for an equalizer, I wouldn’t be surprised if you United to grab more than one considering they’re not missing any attacking players, are they? Other than Rashford who we know that’s a long term issue and there’s plenty of other players that can chip in, Greenwood, Cavani, Sancho, et cetera. So, yeah, that would be my only sort of concern here, which is why I’m kind of leaving the game alone.

Flash:

Mark O’Haire concerns? In the chat they’re going under two and a half, plus one for the visitors. Which way would you want to go here looking at them numbers? Because for me it’s all a bit mishmash.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I’m happy to get Everton on side with a big start on the handicap. I think that’s the way to play it here. United have only got a 50% win rate at Old Trafford in Premier League matches going back to the beginning of the last season and that’s just to win the game. So with a handicap start of minus one, you’re looking for them to win by two goals or more. In those 22 games at Old Trafford, they’ve conceded a goal in 14 of those 22. This season they’ve kept just one clean sheet all season. That was against Wolves where they were second best I felt throughout most of the match as well. Whilst I completely have to caveat with ever missing those key players and forward areas and their front four looks very unfashionable for Premier League standards. I can just see Benitez doing something, basically just getting the Indian sign [00:11:26] over Solskjaer and managing to get something out of this match.

Mark O’Haire:

And even if they were to lose, we can go into the alternative markets, the alternative handicaps on the BetUS sites and back Everton +1/1.5 and effectively we need to win this match by two goals or more to lose our stake or not to make money out of this match and that to me looks like the sensible wager to have here. It’s a reasonable price. Obviously Everton can win, draw, and we still get paid out. And if they do lose by one goal, we’re still making a half stakes profit and I think that for me, really appeals. Benitez’s teams don’t tend to get run over and I don’t think he’ll set his Everton team up to be too cavalier here. They’ll look to play in set pieces, transitions and I think United have shown enough in the last few weeks to suggest that they’re definitely vulnerable defensively.

Flash:

Yeah. When we look at either sides make sure that they’re tough to beat early on. So maybe they draw at half time, but I love the way that you’ve gone digging. You go to betus.com. You go down to sportsbook, then soccer, then props, go over and there’s an alternative line one and two, you can find all sorts that are going to make sure they match up your ideas of how you think the game’s going to go. And MarK O’Haire has just done just that. So, okay let’s have a little at the official picks because this is a tight game. No basketball game Man United would’ve wanted. It’s a pass for me. It’s a pass from Stinch, but Mark O’Haire has come straight in off the bat at +1 or +1.5 at -135. So he is definitely going to go with the visitors not to get beat by two.

Flash:

Okay. Next game is in Southwest London, big exploits for the home side Chelsea versus Southampton. Chelsea on the back of going to Juventus putting in a really, really good performance up until the final third and they got absolutely robbed 11 seconds into the second half, Chiesa getting the winner. Against a Southampton side who are searching for their first win, Mark O’Haire.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, this is an interesting one because all the sort of rhetoric will be given before the match, the fact that Chelsea haven’t been performing since the international break. They did sign off that before September with that really impressive performance with 10 men at Anfield and they’re being considered as major title contenders, but since then they’ve beaten Villa and Zenit at Stanford Bridge without really pulling up any trees. And now back to back defeats to City and Juventus has appeared to derail them, but the high class teams have lost too. I know Thomas Tuchel speaking post match after the game in Turin was a little confused by their performance, but I think there’s a missing link who returns this weekend in Mason Mount. Certainly with him in the team, there definitely is a bit more about them in the final third, or at least linking that midfield, which can be a bit plodding at times to supply the final third with Romelu Lukaku and co.

Mark O’Haire:

They have been quite functional in the past few weeks, but you just look at the squad and the strength of those players who can come into this team to freshen things up and I think they’ll be fine this weekend. This is still a Southampton team who are winless through six games, have only scored four goals. We talked off there about their game against Wolves last week, where for the most part they played really, really well, but just didn’t have enough in the final third to really unlock what was quite a difficult offense to open up. And I think they’re finding exactly the same problems this weekend against Chelsea, who I think are pretty well known now as probably one of the best defenses in Europe, let alone in England as well. So I think this is a good opportunity for Chelsea to bounce back to winning ways.

Flash:

Stich, are there any numbers that give us any sort of indication that Southampton can get something out of the game? Because remember this is a side that went to the Etihad and drew. They drew at home to Manchester United, but they are still winless and they’re still looking very, very sheepish in the oppositions’ final third.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, if they can go to Man City and keep Man City at arm’s length for the majority of the game, then of course, there’s every chance they could get something out of Chelsea. I just don’t expect that to happen because it’s not something they’ve regularly done. I’ve got that Man City game down as a bit of an anomaly, to be honest. I don’t expect them to be able to do that to Chelsea, but Mark is also right that Chelsea have been just average, I would say, since that international break. Last week against Man City I think they were outclassed all over the pitch. You’ve got a striker in Romelu Lukaku that they’ve paid a lot of money for, but he’s failed to score against Man City, Liverpool and Juventus. Is he just a flat trap bully? That’s something he needs to prove, I would say. Obviously Southampton aren’t in that stature, but I think it depends on what game plan Southampton approach with. Are they going to try and batten down hatches like they did with City?

Mark Stinchcombe:

It’s not really the style you need to be successful against Chelsea I don’t believe, because Chelsea aren’t going to be that relentless all the time and attacking. So yeah, I definitely think Southampton could get something out of it in a phase of the season that Chelsea are not a hundred percent clearly.

Flash:

No, if you’re Southampton, then this is the one week of the season that you are hoping to go there and catch them cold because, yes, they’ve traveled. Yes, there’s going to be rotations, but on the other side of that is you’ve got to score goals to get something out of the game. So let’s have a little look at the lines because there’s quite a few lines here that I’m interested in seeing, Southampton goals. There you go. That’s exactly what I was expecting, Stich, they’re half a goal, but then over is -120, but under is -110. So as a flip of a coin, do they score because if they don’t score you getting value, if they do score, you’re getting value.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Well, four goals in six games I think tells a whole story, doesn’t it? Departure of Danny Ings, Adam Armstrong. Can you make the step up from the championship? I think it’s a bit early to day. And then where else do the goals come in, unless you’re relying on a set piece, a free kick from Ward-Prowse or a delivery from a corner. I’m not really sure where the goals are coming from. So I’m surprised that Southampton, the score is the favorite here. We know how good our Chelsea… how good Chelsea are defensively. Before the City game they had kept four clean sheets out of five, and they’ve only conceded in the league to Liverpool, which was a penalty and Man City, which was a deflected shot. So I would definitely rather be on the underdog in that market in this particular scenario.

Flash:

Mark, under two and a half goals at +120. We’ve said week in, week out Chelsea at home, they don’t go and score 3, 4, 5 goals against a Southampton side who are going to have to keep it tight and obviously take their chance when it comes along. Also, Southampton plus one and a half at +100. If they score one, then they’ve got to be looking at four goals. Do we go with under two and half at +120, because that’s a great price or do we go with Southampton not getting beat by two?

Mark O’Haire:

I’m kind of full somewhere in the middle, to be honest. I would oppose a high scoring game, but I also wanted to get jealous on side because I think as I said at the start, all the narrative at the moment is Chelsea are playing poorly and Chelsea aren’t title contenders anymore, and Chelsea can’t do it against the best, but this isn’t the best. There’s a huge difference between the top end of the Premier League these days and the bottom end. And I agree with Stinch, I think Southampton’s result and performance at Man City was a bit of a anomaly. I think Man City didn’t turn up that day. I think Chelsea has got a point to prove.

Flash:

Basically that Southampton performance where Man City didn’t go… There’s a few people that fancied that they would play like that.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I know you did. But we talk about Romelu Lukaku potentially not firing against the bigger teams. Well, Saints submitting Jack Stephens. We saw how Raul Jimenez dealt with Bednarek last weekend. This is going to be a much tougher task for him this weekend as well. So I think Chelsea got a point to prove. I wouldn’t be backing overs, so I’d want Chelsea side alongside some sort of under bet. And it’s just going back to the rinse and repeat the same bet pretty much every week at the moment is Chelsea to win at under three and a half goals because you look at [inaudible 00:19:28] the correct score market, the four favorite the top of the market are Chelsea to win one nil, two nil, three nil or 2-1. So why don’t we package them all up? Back Chelsea to win in a game featuring fewer than four goals. I think that’s the way to go. And if Southampton do get a result here, fair enough, they must have played pretty well or Chelsea just haven’t turned up again.

Mark O’Haire:

But I do think sometimes we get a little bit overboard in terms of writing teams off because of a couple of poor results. They’ve just been beating my Man Cit and Juventus. This is a different kind of fish so I expect Chelsea to bounce back.

Flash:

Yeah. Lets have a little look at the official picks because I think that that under two and half at +120 is massive. It’s a pass for me only because I don’t know what Chelsea’s turning up. I’ve got an inkling, you don’t play the Lukaku and you start playing with only a false nine and you’ve got to move this Southampton side around otherwise it’s going to sit deep and it’s easier to mark a sleeping policeman. Stich is going to pass as well, but Mark O’Haire, two games we’ve covered has gone bang, bang, and then Chelsea and under three and half goals at -120 looks obvious to be honest, when you look at it like that, but there will be surprises this week for the European leagues and make sure you do join us because we’re doing LaLiga and Serie A today as well. But there will be surprises, but Mark O’Haire’s going for Chelsea to win and under three and a half goals at -120 too. He doesn’t expect that surprise to be happening in Southwest London.

Flash:

Okay. Moving on to the next game. I thought this was my first one where I was going to give it a massive tick. We’re off to Yorkshire. It’s Leeds versus Watford. Mark O’Haire, I watched Leeds intently against West Ham. West Ham did deserve the win, even though it took Antonio 89 minutes to get the winner, but Leeds, Watford. I mean that’s a mismatching styles and a mismatch in the quality as well.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean, there’s been talk around in the last week or so about Leeds suffering second season syndrome and potentially being dragged into a relegation fight and I think that’s pretty premature really. Leeds will be concerned, but they’re still winless three, six games and they’ve considered 14 goals, but injuries have played a massive part in that particularly at center half. And you look at the team that played against West Ham last week, particularly in defense, it was massively undermanned. And I still think they gave West Ham a really good game, particularly in that first 45 minutes, but they’re on top. So performances have been reasonable enough even if results haven’t quite come. So I do expect them to turn it around at some point and coming into this weekend, you’ve got key players returning. I think [Stuart’s 00:21:57] back from suspension. Bamford should be back. Llorente, Rafinha also back or in contention to return as well.

Mark O’Haire:

And just having a couple of those players. Don’t even need all four of them, just a couple of them, particularly in defense, if they get those players back then absolutely this is the opportunity to get their season off and running.

Flash:

Yeah, I love this. I love this and I love my NFL analogies Stinch, but the way that leads going to play against Watford is you spread the field. You get man to man matchups and when you get that with the movement and the passing of the ball at pace on the front foot, they’re going to have plenty chances. I didn’t complicate this. I just thought that this was the first game in the Premier League this week, didn’t care about what the prices were. This is a win, win for the home side and then I will look at the prices.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. On paper, but I think the absentees could be the difference. I thought Leeds have been not just last weekend, but whole season really I’m a bit negative with them towards their defense. It’s been a bit all over the place. I thought that was a shocking goal to concede against Antonio. Wasn’t quite sure who the player was, but he tried to nick the ball, when he should have just held his ground and gave Antonio an easy chance in the last minute. It’s [inaudible 00:23:14] it’s Premier League and you shouldn’t be giving away chances like that. And I think earlier it was confirmed the Bamford’s out, so that would definitely put me off taking Leeds.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Watford, I think you’re right. I don’t really expect them to offer too much going forward, but I do think Leeds at the moment they’re just giving away chances through probably because they’re having to play players that don’t normally play or players that play out position and we know how they like to play out from defense. They like to take risks and I just think these players aren’t sort of in tune, if you like. So it’s easy for them to succumb to these easy mistakes and give away easy chances. Football’s a low scoring game and if Leeds give away an early goal to Watford, we know what’s going to happen. Watford are just going to sit in, be defensive and it might be difficult for Leeds to find some space to capitalize. So yeah, just with the absentees puts me off Leeds.

Flash:

Okay. Well, I don’t really care about the numbers here, but I’ve got to look at them anyway because it’s just a home win for me and I don’t care. I was thinking maybe 155 and there it is, at -130. I’m not complicating it, Mark O’Haire. I’m not looking for no halfs. I’m not looking for them to score twice. Because again, remember when we spoke about Liverpool going to Porto. They’re 130 to win the game, but they’re 140 to score twice. If Leeds score twice here, which the numbers are at -145, they win the game. Leeds win the game if they score twice and yet we’re getting -130 just for them to win the game.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. Goals was the way I was looking at this originally, but I wasn’t aware Bamford was missing, but I just think Leeds the way… Their style of play just lends itself towards goals, but more often than not, you’re not going to get great prices around goals either, but I think Watford are quite interesting, they’re pretty much in line in terms of where they’re at in terms of points return compared to market projections through six rounds. Their schedule hasn’t been too difficult. They’ve got some points on the board, but they’re still quite fragile defensively themselves. I just think in the attack they’ve got game changers, which can be quite key at this level, particularly if you are playing a team with vulnerabilities of their own. So they were distinctly second best against Newcastle though last weekend at home, which is obviously a big concern if you want to be on the [inaudible 00:25:34] here.

Mark O’Haire:

So yeah, I can definitely see the angles in being with Leeds and being with Leeds to score at least twice. I was expecting goals. The prices kind of put me off and so did just not having full team news yet, but Stinch just put me off Leeds a bit as well with Bamford being missing. However, if Rafinha does play I’d be much more pro Leeds. I think he is the key for Leeds going forward. Defensively I think they will sort themselves out with a couple players back this weekend, but yeah, it is an interesting one. This is the one, that kind of game, which on paper, I’d really want to get involved with some way or form, but I kind of came out of it without too many answers to some of the questions I coming into it.

Flash:

Yeah. Sometimes you can look at a game just too long and then you took yourself out of it because you think it might be too good to be true. Right. Let’s go to the most unemotional man when it comes to betting, okay. Stinch, I’ll put it to you, Leeds score twice at -145. They score twice. They win the game. -130 just to win the game or Leeds -145 to score two. Surely that just says don’t complicate it. Leeds score two.

Mark Stinchcombe:

If Bamford’s not playing, who’s going to score the goals for Leeds? That’s-

Flash:

It could be anybody. It could be anybody. They have overlapping fullbacks. They have third man runners, Rafinha puts them on plates or Rodrigo. They’ve got plenty, plenty players that will get themselves in a box. It’s whether they take them. They’ll create double figure chances. It’s whether, and like you say, like Mark says as well, whether they take their chances. I’m saying that they’re going to get enough clear cut chances against a Watford side who are not up to premiership level at this moment in time.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Well, you mentioned overlapping fullbacks, Luke Ayling is out injured as well and I’m not convinced by his replacement. So yeah, I mean, I think I would just, as you say, don’t complicate things and just back Leeds to win rather than going down the Leeds team total, just because I’m not sure how many goals it will score, but if you want to oppose Watford, I would, yeah, just keep it simple and back Leeds to win. One thing would say about Watford is Ben Foster has played the last two games, which is interesting because he wasn’t starting at the beginning of the season and he was definitely at fault for the Newcastle goal. He got a glove to it, but it was really, really bad. Definitely it should have been [crosstalk 00:27:58].

Flash:

He’s older than Mark O’Haire. When you put gloves on Mark O’Haire and stuck him in the Watford goal, no one would bat an eyelid. They would think that we got a young replacement.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean, yeah, he is pushing 40 and he does seem to be doing a lot of work outside football on his media activities, so maybe his focus isn’t quite on the game. So yeah, there could be something there that Watford’s defense is a little bit more creaky with him there at the back. Definitely think Newcastle probably should have won last week. They had a few one-on-ones that maybe they should have taken a bit more advantage of. So yeah, if you want to keep things simple just back Leeds on the moneyline, I think.

Flash:

Yeah. And the thing is, and you always say this as well, and this is probably on your number one being let’s keep it simple. Mine is, don’t complicate it. Yours is keep it simple. It’s -130. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because it will be no surprise that I have gone with the home side because I just get… Look at that moneyline, -130, get jog on. I’m happy. I was close to being a two… And by the way, that’s the first leg of my parlay. I’ve got a +4,500 parlay this week throughout the shows of BetUS. So you’re going to have to watch all the shows and I will give you my last leg in Serie A this afternoon, but +4,500. And there’s my first leg at -140. It’s a pass for Mark O’Haire here. A pass for Mark Stinchcombe. Happy gentlemen for me to stick that in my parlay? Yeah?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. You’re sounding very confident, Flash, so…

Flash:

I am. And that’s the good thing. That’s the good thing. I like to sound confident and then I get nothing.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Flash, I think your record speaks for itself.

Flash:

Thank you very much, gentlemen. If you had a little model of me there, you could pat me on the back. Let’s move on because I don’t even know why this next game is in. I was very, very close just to put in a line through this, but Wolves versus Newcastle. What are we going to get? Wolves look really, really compact, really organized, but then not scoring enough goals. We know that they’ve had more shots on goals than any other team in the league. I like the way they’ve got a togetherness. Stinch, how do we attack this game? Because what Newcastle’s going to turn up we have no clue. Turmoil just goes with Newcastle. It should be Newcastle turmoil United, but Wolves, they need to score twice, really to win a game, especially against Newcastle side who do normally score, even if they don’t pick up the three points.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think this could potentially be one way traffic and the odds are kind of suggesting that, which we’ll get onto in a second, but you’re right, Newcastle are shipping the most shots per game in the league, just after Leads, so are the second most at 18 a game. And you already mentioned about Wolves, Wolves having 14 shots per game alone. So already that suggests it’s just going to be a one way traffic. I have to say though, I was impressed with Newcastle last week at Watford where they created lots of good opportunities and should really have come away with a win. Now, I think they should have scored at least two or three goals. I think Saint-Maximin has got himself in a good position. Joe Willock had a couple of decent opportunities as well.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So I think Newcastle, I mean, I have like templates in my head of how a team plays and I think until the back end of last season just had this template of Steve Bruce’s Newcastle being defensive, trying to keep things tight. I think from about February onwards, he’s kind of taken the shackles off a little bit if that was even possible with some of their players, but I think defensively, they’ve regressed massively and their games have just been goal heavy. And I think this game definitely gives us a good way in to goals that I think potentially both ends of the pitch.

Flash:

Yeah. And the big thing with Newcastle and goals is because, Mark O’Haire, they cannot control midfield. I fancy Wolves do control midfield and I like that Raul Jiminez has got his first goal, even if it was against Southampton last week. We’ve all been cheering him on. Great to see him back. And you know, like London buses, you wait ages for one and then two come along at the same time and strikers do go on runs. I fancy him to score this week.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. That goal will certainly revive his confidence and his belief that he can do it. It was a wonderfully taken goal, I thought as well. And yeah, I think it was nice to see Wolves kind of mix things up a little bit. There was talk before the game had Bruno Lage done the right thing by dropping Adama Traore and Trincao to the bench, but it shows that they got options in the final third. Wolves’ role reversed a bit compared to how their seasons played out. Saints were the better team, knocked on the door a lot and Sa had to make a few smart saves, but credit to Wolves for sticking in there and finding the winning goal. So yeah, I think this is an interesting game and I kind of, leaning on the same side is where Stinch is probably going here because, whereas I think this game last season and if it was happening in your back garden, you’d probably close the curtains. I wouldn’t be interested in watching, but this time around, I think there’s some sort of intrigue about it.

Mark O’Haire:

I think it has the potential to be quite interesting, exciting, end-to-end and goal laid. As Stinch says, Newcastle have changed tact in the past six months or so. They are playing with a bit more [Bandon 00:33:17] going forward and in the final third and Saint Maximin is absolutely a part of that. I fancy them to put on a decent effort here at Molineux and I think they can get on the score sheet in what could be quite an interesting game.

Flash:

I love this because I think all three of us are going against the trend. Let’s have a look at the lines because if I was just doing my maths, I’d play under two and half at around -125. Let’s go for the under two and a half at +105. So they are basically thinking it’s going to be overs as well. Stinch, -150 on a home win. The way you see Wolves, would you like a moneyline rather than the numbers or over two and a half goals at -125 and we’re looking at maybe 2-1 the home side.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Just to maybe give a bit context around the numbers. You can see there Wolves at -150, that’s a sure price, isn’t it? You wouldn’t have thought that would be the price coming into it. Now, because they’re the -150, the market is basically saying that wolves are going to score between 1.5 and two goals, which then that automatically means that the overall total, once you add Newcastle who’s going to push the potential up, which is why over two and a half is favorite here. Yeah, I think it’s hard to disagree with that really because of how many goals and how many chances Newcastle are shipping essentially. It’s difficult to disagree with Wolves potentially getting two goals on the score sheet. But as I mentioned, I thought Newcastle were brilliant on the counter attack last week and I think that’s something they can definitely do again here. So I’m actually keeping things a bit simpler and I’m going for both teams to score at -150.

Mark Stinchcombe:

We see here that over two and a goals is -125. So that means we need at least three goals for the bet to win. But I’ve got -115, so I’m getting a better price and I only need two goals as long as one of them comes from both teams. And both teams the score with [inaudible 00:35:16] in the last 12 meetings between these teams and the last six, since both were in the premier league in 2018 and 14 of Newcastle’s last 20 games have seen both teams score. There is worth pointing out, would’ve lost in every single game of Wolves, but I don’t think that team tells the whole story as we know. Their defeats against Leicester, Spurs, United and Brentford. I think Wolves should have got at least a goal in all of those games. So I’m very, very happy to go down this route, given the numbers and given the fact that over two and a half is a short price.

Flash:

Over two and a half goals at -125. Mark O’Haire, the big one for me here is we’ve got the side that creates the most chances against the side that allows the most chances and also you mentioned Adama Traore. Listen, I’ve never been a fan of his. I’ve known so many coaches that have tried to get him right, but he’s got unbelievable pace and strength. Now, if you’ve got Newcastle overcommitting, then you play him and you hit them on the break. Almost Wolves have to play like the away side and they will carve this lot open. Do Wolves score twice, or do we not complicate and just go over two and a half goals is the same price as wall scoring two?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I’d probably, to be honest, I was very, very close to following Stinch in with the same wager of his both teams to score, I think is the better price of all three options there. Wolves scoring twice or more over two and a half goals and both teams to score just because of Newcastle’s started to change in the past six months. Whether it’s something that’s come from above or something Steve Bruce has felt pressure from supporters to be a bit more expressive, but they have definitely played with more… They’re playing a much more open attack and entertaining brand of football. Saint Maximin has been the key man for that, but… Yeah, we talk about key players and game changers, and he’s absolutely the top of that list, particularly in the bottom half.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think that can be absolutely key in these tight games, but I do expect Wolves to take the front foot approach and yeah, you’ve got people like Traore to come on if he does start or if he doesn’t start to cause havoc on the counter attack, but Raul Jimenez, we talked about him earlier will be key and chief threat there for Wolves as well. So yeah, as I said, I’m expecting this game to be quite an open and attacking game and it was definitely on my short list as a potential wager for this.

Flash:

Okay. And Raul Jimenez is +100 to score any time. Good luck, Mr. Jimenez. Let’s have a look at the official picks, please. So a pass for me, a pass for Mark O’Haire, but both teams to score -115 for Stinch as he told you draw, and both teams score has happened so, so many times when these two come up against each other and then more free flowing as well nowadays. So, listen, -115 both team score looks like a good one, Stinch. Well done you for finding that one.

Flash:

Now let’s go on to this next game because we’ve seen a 360 degree reversal. Last year we got… So basically it’s Brighton versus Arsenal. Brighton last year lost more points from winning positions late on in games. This year, they go to Burnley one nil down, then they score two late ones and they win. Last week, one nil down in the M23 derby and they scored in 95th minute to get something out of that. What is going on with Brighton against an Arsenal side, who go to Burnley, keep a clean sheet, which is a tough place to go and then they go three up in half an hour in the North London derby? Mark O’Haire, are we looking at Arsenal being a completely different Arsenal and also Brighton causing problems?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I found this one quite difficult to decipher. So always got an official pick on this fair play because-

Flash:

Yeah, me.

Mark O’Haire:

Right. I think, yeah, it’s funny how results can condition people’s thought process and Arsenal were being written off after three match days of, they’re going down and they’re awful. Whereas they play Chelsea and Man city and also had to play Brentford with basically half a team out. So three defeats from three is never good when you’re Arsenal, but they’re always going to improve, but how far have they improved? I think we might be overreacting to one result against Spurs because previously they did only beat Burnley by Odegaard set piece and they did also beat Norwich by just one goal. I know they were a much better team in that game against Norwich, but are they a top six team yet? Not yet, in my opinion. I think they’re working their way towards that, but they’ve got a long way still to go. So yeah, I like the team that they selected against Spurs.

Mark O’Haire:

I think that looks about the best setup tactically and personnel wise, but Xhaka is now injured. So whether Arteta ops for Maitland-Niles to come in and take that position and kind of keep it as he were, I don’t know, really, but Thomas Partey is the absolute key of that team, I think. I think now moving in the right direction. I just really wouldn’t want to back them as favorites away at Brighton, who, as you say, it’s kind of roles reversal from last year where variance wasn’t going their way, despite dominating in a lot of their matches last season, this time around, they’ve not been as dominant, but they seem to be picking up points left, right and center including that game of Palace, but they were possibly second best. So yeah, I found this one quite tricky to kind of unpack.

Flash:

Stinch, let’s forget that it’s Brighton, let’s forget that it’s Arsenal. Let’s call this team A and team B. Numbers, is there any numbers that tell us which way we should be going in this game?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I found this one really fascinating from an odd perspective, because I thought there was every chance that Brighton could be favorites in this match because we know their long term process is good. One, we know they’re playing football the way the betting markets like. They keep the ball, they create high quality chances, so I was thinking that Brighton might be favorites in this one, but I think probably because of Arsenal’s last few results the market’s happy to keep Arsenal as the favorites, they’ve got the better players. That’s half the battle, Arsenal are capable of scoring goals out of nothing.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But in terms of numbers to try and marry it all up, it just feels a bit sort of foggy to me, if you like, Brighton around, as mark says, they were unlucky like so many times last season. This season, they seem to have got a bit of luck and as you mentioned as well with these late goals, that long term, they can’t keep relying on these late goals. So maybe they’ve become a bit more efficient. It’s really tricky and really difficult to call I think. And yeah, if Arsenal were a bit sure, I’d probably want to get Brighton side, but it’s not far off a pick and I think that’s probably correct with Brighton’s home advantage.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a look at these numbers because one number absolutely jumped off the screen at me. I’ve got +155 for the visitors. Are you kidding me? Listen, forget it’s Arsenal. Just go with the number, the number of +155 for a side that is riddled with internationals, energy, and quality against the Brighton side who want to play open and they’re going to get killed if Arsenal turn up. Now we know that teams don’t go to Brighton and they don’t come away with three points very often as we’ve seen. Leicester recently. We’ve seen teams come and stop at Brighton but if Arsenal are going with the balance, the belief and the confidence that they are starting to show and at + 55, I couldn’t look any further Mark O’Haire because normally I’d be at -110.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I don’t want to back Arsenal as favorites away at Brighton. It’s just where I’m at to be honest. I’m not ready to trust them that much. I think I said at the start of the season, I do expect Arsenal overall with this campaign to have a good season and potentially get themselves into that top six not top four, but heading in that direction. It’s been a rocky road. I think they are on the right road, but this just feels like an easy leave for me. For me, it’s a really good barometer of how far they’ve really come in those couple of weeks since the Man City defeat. Are the team that the market seems to suggest they are right now by being +155? If I was having to play on this, I’d be looking towards the draw, the biggest price of the three in terms of Brighton and Arsenal or the draw I think it could be quite tight. I do think Brighton are happy running a little bit too hot.

Mark O’Haire:

If you look at the sort of performance data and the expected points, they’ve probably picked up four to five points more than performances have probably deserved, but I still believe in what Graham Potter is doing down there. And I think they are difficult to oust when they’re on their game. So yeah, this is a great idea to see where Arsenal really are at. Can they go to Brighton and pick up another performance? Obviously based on the Spurs result and the Spurs display, you’d assume so, but I think this is a much more difficult test ahead.

Flash:

Easy. Brighton are at it, but what about Arsenal? Just to score two goals at +155. So again, we’ve got the moneyline at +155 for Arsenal just to score two goals and that means that Brighton if they don’t score two goals, then you go with the moneyline or you go with the goals. Stinch?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think when these two teams have met, I think they’ve been, off the top of my head, I think they’ve been quite close games. I don’t think they’ve been very high scoring. I know Arsenal won this fixture one nil last season, I think. Yeah, so the home game Arsenal won two to nil. The away game Arsenal won one nil and then the four previous meetings-

Flash:

I think they got [crosstalk 00:44:53] record in the last 12 months against Brighton.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. And then in the four matches before that, they scored one goal and they lost the two before that as well.

Flash:

I don’t think so that far back, Stinch. No need-

Mark Stinchcombe:

[crosstalk 00:45:04].

Flash:

… one bet.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Now, one thing I want to say in your favor, Flash, because in this game last season was Arsenal was +105. So basically Brighton have lost Ben white, but have got home advantage. Is that enough to go from +105 to +155? I would probably say no. So I definitely think you’re on the right line.

Flash:

Yeah. And that’s all I went with. I went with the confidence then having a balance and having [inaudible 00:45:32] but a number. The number was +155. Let’s have a look at the official pick because I love that they’ve got there Partey, Smith Rowe, Saka, Odegaard, Aubameyang starting to get it and the fullbacks are bombing on as well. Arsenal +155. What a gift! And by the way, I’m that bullish. This is the second leg of my 14 parley. There’s no mess at about that -250 in my parley. Arsenal +155. A pass from Stinch, a pass for Mark O’Haire. These two have probably be laughing at me when we do… By the way, we’ve got international break next week, so make sure you enjoy this video because we’ll be off for the good part of 10 to 12 days. Okay, Arsenal win. I was going to say the goals [inaudible 00:46:16] ground then at the Amex Arena and let’s hope they get three points. Show me age there, the goals [inaudible 00:46:23] grab with Jimmy Case in midfield, Michael Robinson on the wing. Too old for some of you.

Flash:

Okay, let’s go on because what a tricky game and I’m so interested to find out where, what, how this got on because it’s Crystal Palace versus Leicester. Crystal Palace, they’re doing all right. They’re doing probably better than most give them credit for, but Mark O’Haire last week, urgh, 95th minute equalizer against two little local derby rivals, must have put a pin in their blue.

Mark O’Haire:

I find it quite amusing to be honest, but the way in which they conceded that goal. Yeah, I haven’t got a vendetta against Palace at all, but I’m still sort of… I’m hearing all the right noises because of progression. Yeah, exactly. Keep getting told that Palace have changed and Palace are going to be great and Palace are brilliant, but they’re not winning matches. The only game they’ve won so far was against Spurs. And I mentioned it every week, but there was no better time to play Spurs than immediately after the international break with all their injury issues. I thought it was a perfect storm for Palace and they took advantage of it and near the plane, more progressively, ecstatically they’re playing a much more watchable style of football, but at the same time I’m not seeing probably what… I’ve been told I’m being seen… told to be watching out for. There are signs of progress, but it’s going to take time to sort of morph away from Roy Hodgson’s pragmatic styles to something a bit more attack minded.

Mark O’Haire:

So again, talked about a few teams already on the show, but this is a great barometer I think for Crystal Palace and where they are at under Patrick Vieira playing a Leicester team who haven’t enjoyed a good start to the season, still trying to work out a formula to get the best out of those players, particularly in forward areas, I feel. So yeah, it’s a good opportunity. I always think the October international break to take stock on each team and I will be doing that with Crystal Palace. The transfer window is now well out of the way. We’ve had around a fifth of the season to go. So I don’t want to make too many sweeping statements, but I do think the schedule has played a bit of a part in Crystal Palace start too. So yeah, I think this is another test to see where exactly they’re at. Are they going to be scraping as relegation or are they actually going to be a comfortable mid-table team?

Flash:

Yeah. And just remember Leicester in Europa action as well. So they’re going to have a little bit of a hangover of that Thursday, Sunday, Thursday, Sunday. Stinch, listen, Palace versus Leicester is not one that rolls off the tongue or runs through my pen onto my paper when I’m looking to have a bet.

Mark Stinchcombe:

It’s all about the odds. Isn’t it?

Flash:

Well, it is. What are the odds then? Okay. Let’s talk over the odds for me, Stinch. Let’s move a gear. Let’s mix it up. Let’s keep it fresh. Coming in, let’s have a little look at the numbers here and we’ll talk over them please. Okay. The moneyline is +210 for the home side, from South London, Leicester. They’re overpriced for me at plus one they… I say over, because I think they should be around 160. I don’t think you’re getting much value. Over one and a half goals at +125 tells you that the markets are saying they’ll score one, over one and a half at +185. Is this like a one nil or 1-1 type of game according to the book, Stinch?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Basically it’s a 1-1. That’s what the market is suspecting Leicester, slight favorites. And the under two and a half is the favorite as well. So the draw is what the market is expecting. I’m surprised to see the draw at 250, to be honest, based on that. But I want to keep things simple and it talked about it last week when Leicester played Burnley just sticking with the over two and a half goals when Lester play at the moment. 16 of the last 21 gone over 2.5, that’s over 75%. We look at them from a team as wow, especially last week against Burnley they looked all at sea defensively. They’ve kept just clean three clean sheets.

Flash:

Sorry. Did you say 15 of 21?

Mark Stinchcombe:

16.

Flash:

Oh, 16. Yeah, you’re right. 75.3. [inaudible 00:50:30]. Okay. Okay. So I was just going to [crosstalk 00:50:33]. Because you know what a math genius I am.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Numbers are important, Flash. Aren’t they?

Flash:

Yeah, yeah. Definitely numbers are important.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But they kept just three clean sheets. So that says to me that Crystal Palace, especially with Leicester being away in Europe on the Thursday night, Crystal Palace should be edged to get at them. I think I’ve mentioned before I really like signing of Odsonne Edouard. I think he can take some of the weight off Wilfred Zaha’s shoulders. Benteke has been a little bit out of favor, but he was banging them in towards the back end of last season, so it’d be good if they get a bit of tune out of him again. Having said that, Leicester going forward, if he plays the players, they just look fantastic with Vardy, Iheanacho, Harvey, Barnes, Madison. I think they’ve got so many good options. So yeah, I’m just liking goals here. During that 21 game runner I mentioned the average per game in Leicester’s match has been 3.5 and we’ve got a goal on here of 2.5. So yeah, just not complicating things and going for the overs again.

Flash:

Yeah. Last week I went for the unders and I knew my fate very, very early on because Leicester hosted Burnley and Burnley looked like scoring every time they went forward, but the problem with that was that Leicester likes going forward as well. Do we see this same type of thing, Mark O’Haire, here? Because if we do then the over two and half -115 is a no brainer.

Mark O’Haire:

It is when you hear the stats first Stinch has just reeled off in Leicester games and I think encouraging as well. I should see this as a winnable opportunity with Leicester firing all cylinders playing in Europe. I haven’t been too impressed by them to be honest this season. There’s talk for… Evans was supposed to be back last week, now it’s probably this week. But even if he does come into the team, he doesn’t solve the defensive weakness immediately. I’m sure it will take him time to get up to speed. I think the bigger issue at the moment for Leicester is getting the best out of that forward line, because they’ve got so many good options and none of them seem to be in form or playing reasonably well at the moment, which isn’t ideal, but they should get opportunities against the Palace team who I don’t think are water tight themselves. So yeah, I wasn’t trusting Leicester as big home favorites against Burnley last weekend. I wouldn’t be touching them at their prices at Palace either. So yeah, goals would be the obvious route thereafter.

Flash:

Okay. Over two and half goals and -115 seems the way we’re pointing, we’re heading. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Pass for me, pass for Mark. Over two and a half goals, -115. And it’s not personal opinion there. That’s backed up by the stats he said. Remember 75.4% is overs. So he’s going a bit again because at -115 it has really, really good value. I mean, even if it was a -125, I guess you’d still be thinking to go for that, Stinch.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, definitely. The goal expectancy here it’s just 2.55, which is why we’ve got the odds that we’ve got about, but as I say, Leicester’s games average in 3.5. So that’s the whole goal differential, so even if the price, as you say, came in a little bit, I still would be looking to take this line.

Flash:

And remember Leicester are in Europa League action as well. So maybe if you are wanting to be with Palace or you want to be with something that favors home side any injuries or anything like that could happen tonight. And also a little look at the lineups because that means that some of the players would have played five games in the last 20 days, which is just a little bit too much if your squad is not big enough.

Flash:

Let’s move on to North London. It’s going to be Spurs versus Aston Villa. Aston Villa fresh off of that one nil win last week. Okay. Listen, they played really well, but that could have been and should have been probably a draw of 1-1 because Man United missed a penalty against a Spurs side who show an urgency, their attitude and the quality of their midfielders, which I keep coming back to is wanting. If they win, they’re not going to win by a handful. Mark O’Haire, Spurs versus Villa, flip that coin because I don’t know which way to go here.

Mark O’Haire:

Okay. I’m a bit more confident about this game. Tottenham, well, Nuno Espirito Santo, this is match is massive, isn’t it? Because we’re going into an international break and normally they say that’s a great time to change coach. If Daniel Levy has been doing some chats behind the scenes and has someone lined up. There’s talk for Antonio Conte might be sounded out. And certainly the choice of taking on Nuno after going around Europe and then speaking to 5, 6, 7, 8 different coaches before choosing Nuno. It doesn’t feel like the right fit. It does feel like an extension of the Jose Mourinho era. The pressure is definitely on. They’re playing in Europa Conference League on Thursday night. I don’t think that’s relevant whatsoever. The only way he can win really with the supporters and the media is if Spurs trust Nuno. If they don’t, then pressure’s going to be heat onto this game and Spurs opened up a old song quotes and they’ve drifted out quite significantly since then.

Mark O’Haire:

And it’s really hard to have any faith in them based on what we’ve seen so far this season. They lost this game back in May 2-1 to Aston Villa. So Villa have got a recent history of beating them. Remember Spurs’ recent performances, they conceded three goals or more in the last three premier league games. The Watford game was probably the only match in which they were probably considered the better of the teams. Kane’s clearly not clicking. The ponderous midfield that we’ve talked about many times. The system that doesn’t seem to work right now. Yeah, I mean, it’s hard to have much faith in Spurs at the moment, so I’ll be happily opposing them and opposing goals too.

Flash:

Opposing goals and opposing the home side. Stinch, any numbers that would point us in the right direction?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, I think the big one is… I think Mark might’ve mentioned it to me earlier of head, but Tottenham were -167 in this fixture last season. And now they’re out to… I think odds against, yeah, they’re out to +110. So that just goes to show where the change has happened really in terms of ability or not necessarily ability because we know Spurs have got the ability but performances and that was a Villa side with Jack Grealish as well. So arguably Villa are weaker. I think I would like to side with Villa in all honesty because of the shambles-

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:57:01].

Mark Stinchcombe:

Sorry?

Flash:

Why didn’t you?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Why didn’t I? Leon Bailey still are injured and Emi Buendia started on the bench last week and I’m a big fan. I’ve mentioned a lot of times about [inaudible 00:57:14] because of his departure. And it seems like Dean Smith may be not quite sure how to get the best out of him. So if he wasn’t to play, that would kind of suggest to me that maybe Villa going for a bit more of a conservative approach and Tottenham, we know for everything that’s going wrong there, we know about Kane and Son the fact that they basically kept Mourihno in a job a lot longer than he should have been really because of their ability to score low quality chances and bail the team out. So that’s my only reservation. If Villa were full strength and started Ings, Watkins, Buendia, McGinn, et cetera, I would say no problem backing Villa on the handicap because I do believe that term under Nuno Espirito there’s only one way Spurs are going and it’s down. Not relegated, but definitely bottom half. They are in the bottom five for all the sorts of performance metrics.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And the only reason that I don’t think he’s getting more grief is because they kind of fluked their way into those first three wins at the beginning of the season.

Flash:

Okay. You’ve just triggered something in my tiny little brain, Stinch. Mark O’Haire, before we have a look at the numbers, do we not feel that there’s a possibility that Villa had the stronger bench and they have explosive players off the bench? So maybe if you go to betus.com, then there might be a 75 minute mark of maybe a draw after 75 minutes because if one of these teams is going to win it late on, it could well be Villa.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, absolutely. They’ve also had the full week to prepare. They’d be well rested, well-prepared compared to Spurs who do have the inconvenience of playing in the Conference League. There’s no new injuries, no new suspensions for Aston Villa. They’ll be feeling good about themselves after winning at Old Trafford, feeling good about themselves after being on a really good show at Stanford Bridge, despite losing in a recent game. So they’ll have absolutely no fear of going to Tottenham in their current guys and they’ll feel confident enough to go there and try and win the game. So yeah, as the match creeps on further and further they have got game changers to come off the bench make a difference against a Spurs side who could well be tired after their sort of midweek exploits as well.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a look at these numbers because I’m really interested and there’s something sort of just prodding me in the back to say, let’s have a little look at the Villa numbers and not the Spurs. Okay. Plus half, -130 for Villa and the draw, +250 on the moneyline, but the draw is at +265. Mark O’Haire, if Villa score twice I would probably just say no. Could we be looking at… Is there a possibility of a nil-nil or one nil here in this game?

Mark O’Haire:

I hinted Kane on opposing goals here. I was kind of weighing up between Villa and the handicap there with a half a gold star or to oppose goals. So I’ve gone digging again. I’ve gone into the alternative markets, so you can get under 2.5 under three at a nice price basically where you basically hang half your stake on under two and a half goals and half your steak on under three goals. Through our three goals or more, you only lose half of your steak. We’ve talked about it many times now, Spurs just aren’t clicking in the final third. Harry Kane’s getting a lot of criticism for his performances. And outside of Son, you do worry whether [inaudible 01:00:23] or whether they’re likely to get Spurs scoring multiple goals in this game is, because Villa have defended really diligently against United and as well as against Chelsea too. You’d say probably tougher tests than going to Spurs right now.

Mark O’Haire:

And obviously they’ve been pretty professional themselves from set pieces. And actually if you look at the performance data Villa’s games have featured quite a or very little in terms of gold mouth action, it’s been very, one of the lowest in the league actually. So they’ve certainly changed tact this season without Grealish. They’re a bit more conservative, a bit more pragmatic in their style. They have got players in forward areas who can make the difference. So yeah, I mean I did toy with just opposing Spurs at the prices. I looked at their prices and whenever they’ve gone off for sort of plus money, since the start of last season, there’s been nine occasions at home where they have done, they’ve only won three of those nine games, two of which were against Man City when they were completely outplayed.

Mark O’Haire:

Spurs don’t tend to fare pretty well when they’re plus money at home at the moment anywhere else. So yeah, there’s two options there. I’ve planned for opposing goals, but I’d be more than happy as well to just get Villa on side over half cold start too.

Flash:

Yeah. And Stinch, just looking at that, if you’re lazy better and you see Spurs at home, +110, it’s a trap, isn’t it?

Mark Stinchcombe:

In their current guys. Yeah. Because they’re not playing with a plan. I would say they’re not playing with a template that lends itself to winning football matches long-term. I think he’s playing players out of position. He needs to have a word with Harry Kane and tell him that he shouldn’t be in his own team’s defensive box trying to make a last ditch challenge. That’s not his job. It needs to be in the opposition’s box where people can pick him out for service. So yeah, I mean if it wasn’t for Kane and Son, I think Tottenham could be in real trouble this season.

Flash:

Yeah. And just remember what I said prior to the season starting, when Harry Kane was going to Man City for 150, 160 million. Spurs have won nothing with Harry Kane and it looks like that trend will continue. We give you data, we give you experience, we give you value and we give you numbers. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, please. I’ll say official picks because for me it’s a passport. Do you really fancy that draw? Under two and half stroke three at -130. So Mark O’Haire has gone digging into the alternate lines that you can get on BetUS. And by the way, more and more lines becoming available and I’m also seeing other leagues being added as well. Props for the four major leagues, props for the MLS, but I’m also seeing Scandinavian leagues being added. So if you just love your soccer, you want to go and broaden your horizons then get yourself over there [inaudible 01:03:10] soccer. That’s a pass from Stinch.

Flash:

Now let’s go to the next game because the next game is the biggest game throughout the whole of Europe and there’s some big games in Europe. We’re off to Anfield. It’s Liverpool versus Man City. Liverpool off one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen regardless of the score away in Porto and Man City getting beat two nil in Paris against Paris Saint-Germain. I thought Man City were very good until the final third. Mark O’Haire, where they miss? Why are we talking about one of the world’s richest clubs not having an out and out center forward?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I don’t know. Sometimes you think Pep Guardiola is a bit too clever for his own good because he seems intent on playing this strikerless system or at least starting Gabriel Jesus. Why too sure? He’s played very well in that position, but games like that in Paris, you just seem to be screaming for a central striker or a focal point or a finisher, a poacher or something. Because they did create opportunities and not probably as many as I had hoped, but they did carve out chances against PSG a few times. But yeah, it was all pretty possession until the final third and that they struggled to break down a PSG defense, which has been reasonably rickety this season too. Yeah, disappointing result for them, but at the same point you have to just remind yourself it is only last week where they played Chelsea off the park at Stanford Bridge and that performance with and without the ball was absolutely exceptional really. I was so impressed with what they did-

Flash:

Was it not the same as PSG as well though, really wasn’t it? Because although PSG won the game two nil for me as an ex professional, looking at the game Man City were the better side.

Mark O’Haire:

There were the better side. Yeah. But did they create as many opportunities as they did at Chelsea? I thought the game against Chelsea could have been two, three nil in City’s favor, whereas I’m not sure you could have said the same in Paris. They had the opportunity I think it was… Was it Sterling, Bernado Silva. Both of them hitting the woodwork and the same move. But apart from that, how many times did they really cut them open? I’m not sure. This is the end of a really testing week for City, really testing week and… I’d be interested to see the team news to see who Pep Guardiola hops for. Does he change system? Does he change tact? Because I think Liverpool have had a softer week. I know going to Porto is never an easy prospect, but Liverpool seems to make mincemeat out of the many times they go there. But yeah, I mean they’ll be absolutely buzzing for this. It’s a full house at Anfield.

Mark O’Haire:

This is where City tends to slip up. I think it’s, what? One win in 17 since going to Anfield in the Premier League? And that was last season when Liverpool started with Fabinho and Jordan Anderson at center half. So yeah, I mean, this is a real test from City and I think… I’m really looking forward to… It should be quite an absorbing entertaining game.

Flash:

Thanks, partner. You tee me up brilliantly. One win in 17 for City at Anfield. Stinch, please tell me that that’s a number that points you towards the home side.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think so, but I think it’s also worth pointing out that Man City haven’t been underdogs in a Premier League fixture for over four years. Now we talk about the market often getting it wrong. Are we saying that just because there’s fans at Anfield that the market’s going wrong? So it’s questionable. I think Mark there makes a good point about City’s week. They’ve got to go to away to Chelsea, away to PSG, now away to Anfield. That can take its toll on any side. So I think there’s definitely reasons to side with Liverpool, if you want to. I think I definitely I’ve said it a few times now, I think City are missing a striker and someone that’s just going to… Mark says a poacher, somebody who’s going to put all these chances in the bag, all these lovely balls that De Bruyne puts in that sort of corridor of uncertainty.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But at the same time I don’t think there’s necessarily negatives around Liverpool. It’s just, are they back to that all conquering total winning team of 2019/20 and probably 18/19, where they pushed it till the way? That’s the only sorts of question mark for me. Looked a little bit all at sea at a Brentford last week as we already saw, spoken about. I think Trent’s out injured as well, although [Nuno 01:07:35] put in quite good assist for Mane during the week, but it’s not the same dynamic flowing fullback that Trent is. And obviously Trent is a good threat from set pieces as well. So I think there’s various negatives against both teams here. So maybe going into the goals market or something like that is a better way to go or just sit back and enjoy the game.

Flash:

Yeah. So all of them are… I’d go with the home side, go with goals, go with sitting back and enjoy because look at these numbers. I cannot believe when I looked at this and the first number that popped up, which was obviously a lot quicker than these numbers are popping up. Moneyline, +200 for Liverpool who had any three from four on top of their game, the midfield that now got more options. Man City +135 away from home. They’ll have their favors as well. The draw at +255 is an option. But now look at this over one and a half goals is odds against. So that tells you Man City to score one, but for Liverpool to score twice is +135. Okay. Mark O’Haire, I love this one. Do I go with Liverpool scoring twice? Meaning that I think that’s good enough to win the game. I mean, that means they win 2-1. So I’d rather go with +200, Liverpool to win the game. Would you not agree?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I want something pro Liverpool. I also would like something pro goals. So I guess that’s a good way of looking at things, Flash. Games between these two teams tend to be exciting, tend to be end to end. Eight of the last 10 Premier League or Champions League meetings, they feature three or more goals between these two. And I guess it’s not the kind of game where you want to cheer on the unders, is it? With the attacking quality of both teams on show. We’ve seen a lot of big games between big six teams over the past couple of years be pretty turgid affairs whereas Liverpool, Man City always seem to have a go at each other. I think that’s just down to Klopp and Pep in terms of how they approach things.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think we saw the first half of Liverpool against Chelsea before the red card, it was quite a helter-skelter game, quite a frenetic game. And obviously the red card changed things. We saw Man City at Chelsea they went straight on the front foot from the first whistle ready. They are more than happy to attack and play front foot football. So I do think Liverpool’s vulnerabilities, there has been a couple of defensively, but at the moment the Reds are trending in the right direction and have been doing so since probably March time. It’s kind of gone a little bit under the radar, but their form and their results have been just as good as anyone in the Premier League since March. And also, if you look at the underlying data, the performance data, they’re on track almost just trending just below Man City on the same upward trajectory as well.

Mark O’Haire:

So they’ve been playing good football for a long time right now. The Van Dijk’s return has obviously helped, but I still think there probably are a couple of things they need to work out defensively. But at the same point, we talk about Man City’s week and that is definitely a weakness. They could be tired, it could be jaded. Two very difficult games to get through. Not just in the terms of what’s left in the legs, but also mentally as well, going to Anfield, the [inaudible 01:10:45] Anfield, which we’ll be really very much looking forward to the visit too. So yeah, I mean, you look at the goals, the goal expectancy of this game is around 2.9. Liverpool’s home games against top six finishes under Jurgen Klopp average 2.92 goals, so this game does tend to produce goals. I really wouldn’t mind looking at over two and a half goals sign but also something Liverpool based. And I think that the handicap there, the pick’em of +115 certainly appeals because I do think the draw is a runner as well.

Flash:

Stinch, pro Liverpool, pro goals? We’re looking at… The way that this game is going to match up is that they’re going to go head to head. They’re going to go punch for punch. Now just give me a little bit here. Man City failed to score against Southampton. Only scored one against Chelsea. Failed to score against PSG. Now they’re going to Liverpool who’ve been scoring. Listen, just in the last free games they’re in double figures for goals.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think it comes back to the earlier point about Man City not having that poacher. Look at Salah, not only does he score from outside the area, but as a wide man, he is there at the back post on a regular basis getting a lot of tap-ins. I mean, I think the first goal he scored against Porto the other night just took advantage of a defensive mishap and was there for almost a tackle to tap it in kind of. Mane and Firmino haven’t been quite the same selves as they were the past few seasons, but I think confidence wise, it was good they both got on to score sheet the other night. I really liked Diogo Jota. He’s popping out with some goals when the other two aren’t firing in. And it’s difficult to say the same for players on Man City’s team and I think the number that’s jumping out to me here and I think you mentioned it already, is that +200 for Liverpool.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think I’m happy to suggest that these two are a similar level to when they played here two years ago when there were fans. And Liverpool that day were +175. So Liverpool at +200 when they’ve won seven of the last eight meetings at Anfield with fans, I think that screams the value to me. But obviously if you want to be a bit more reserved, I would go for the pick’em because as Mark says, if it finishes in a draw, at least you get your money back. So Liverpool +115, it would probably be the route I would go down.

Flash:

I love that. We want to be pro Liverpool. We want to be pro goals. We don’t want to look any further than +200. Then Stinch being Stinch, says if you want to be a little bit more reserved than you go pick’em at +115. What I can tell you that Liverpool at +200 is the third leg of my 14 parley. I’ve put them in with Arsenal plus money and with Leeds. So I’ve got me three and I’ve sucked them all together. I just think Liverpool at +200 and the beauty of that is that Liverpool will be on the final leg of that treble. And I’ll give you the last one. I will be having the Serie A show at four o’clock Eastern this afternoon. But remember what we said, pro Liverpool, pro goals. Let’s have a little look at the official picks and let your mouth water.

Flash:

Look the one I found. Because I’ve gone in Liverpool to win and both teams to score at +400. You can’t get more pro Liverpool and more pro goals like that. Mark O’Haire, I’m seeing your eyes light up a little bit there, Mark O’Haire. Do not think that +400 has got your name on it.

Mark O’Haire:

I like it, Flash. I like it. I mean, going for the sixth aren’t you here? So it’s a nice place. It’s a nice price.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m hoping for a nice little 4-1. I want it to be saying, I don’t know, [crosstalk 01:14:26]. Stinch, 4-1 would be nice. I don’t want to be like 1-1 and I’ve got to be begging for a goal in the last couple of minutes. But, no, the +400, that’s definitely going to be valuable, but remember I’ve gone with Liverpool as well at +200. I don’t see any clean sheets here. But gentlemen, I don’t think we need to worry about a Q;A. Anybody got questions in the chat. It’s been a long day. We’ve covered nearly every single game in the Premier League history. There can be [inaudible 01:14:57] be it’s cousin? Raymond [Reddit 01:15:00] says West Ham versus Brentford. On a quick one, West Ham Brentford could be anything. Mark O’Haire?

Mark O’Haire:

I like both teams to score. I think West Ham games tend to be quite entertaining, quite gung ho. Brentford showed last week that they can mix it when they come up against decent teams. I wonder whether we’ll see a different side of Brentford now after that game against Liverpool. They’ve shown they can get forward and score goals. Yeah, that would be the angle I’d take West Ham on a hot zone. Probably fair enough, but I prefer goals.

Flash:

Yeah. I like both teams to score. So I like both teams scoring and maybe over the two and a half goals, as well. Stinch, just a quick one, Brentford that they score against West Ham?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No.

Flash:

Okay. There you go. So for us we’re 50, 50 or maybe-

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’ve got no idea.

Flash:

Those with no idea that’s why you’re getting at it. And Jeremiah says Burnley versus Norwich. I’ll answer that one. Flip a coin. It’s going to be a home win. And does the away team score? Stinch, do Norwich score? Because normally that’s where you get your money. Norwich under low 0.5. Is it the same again this week against Burnley?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’ve got couple of interest in statistics regarding that game. So Norwich have lost their last 16 premier league matches. So you kind of be looking, right, what can I get pro Burnley? How can I profit here? Norwich have failed to score in 13 of those last 16 games as well. So as we’ve taken [inaudible 01:16:24] in the season, taking that Norwich clean sheet. Another game last week at Everton and they failed to score. And against Burnley, Burnley have failed to win the last 13 home games. So Burnley at minus money, I think is… You’re risking things. I’d love to back Burnley at anything plus money, I think even with that caveat of them struggling at home, but I think it’s just a pass this time.

Flash:

I love the fact that we opened the show with caveat. We mentioned it 27 times during the show, and now we’re ending it with caveat as well. Now you go to betus.com and you want to sign up bonus, we’ll give you up to two and a half thousand dollars, which is 125% sign up bonus. And all you got to do is put in a promo code of EPL2021. EPL2021. 125% signup bonus. Up to two and a half thousand dollars. It’s going to be a really, really good Premier League this week. It’s Premier League Matchday 7. And remember to subscribe, press the button on the bell, and then we’ll be able to send you every single piece of content that we do. Mark O’Haire have a great weekend. Stinch, I’ll see you tomorrow for Bundesliga. Remember, the best one that we could find was Liverpool to win, both teams to score a +400. You take care.