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Premier League Picks Matchday 7 | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips


Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash and it is Premier League show week seven. Now with one team, Man City, they won the Premier League in 2023-24, so just relax. But I tell you what, any two from eight are going to be filling up your Champions League spots because they’re all much of a muchness and the North London Darby threw up a few more questions about who’s actually going to have the bragging rights in North London because I thought Spurs were very, very strong.

Now, we are America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like you to subscribe and also ring the bell and as you know, it’s our 30th anniversary, so if you go and type in betustv.com/toughtruck, that’s going to give you an opportunity to go into the free draw to win the Tough Truck. One of us, myself, Mark O’Haire or Brad Thomas will have a golden ticket below us. All you’ve got to do in the chat, live, is say which one of us is holding the golden ticket. So make sure you do go over to the Betustv.com/toughtruck because there’s a 125% bonus there for you to claim and your 30 risk-free bets.

Okay, there will be chat, Q and A, and records, but first of all I’m going to introduce Mark O’Haire and Brad Thomas. Mark O’Haire, just quickly, last week was the London Derby, two-two, but for me, I thought Spurs may have looked a little bit stronger on and off the pitch.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it was a really interesting game. I think the tides turned a little bit with the Arsenal substitutions, especially at halftime, but I think Tottenham showed a lot of bravery, a lot of character. The work that Ange Postecoglou has done behind the scenes to bring those players discarded by previous regimes into the first team and give them that mentality to be able to go to the Emirates and compete is admirable, really.

We’ve seen Spurs in previous campaigns go to the Emirates, concede the goal and then meekly go down and surrender really, but it’s been anything but and it’s quite exciting for us neutrals really to see Tottenham be competitive in those big games, especially going away to the biggest rivals and putting on a decent show. If you were going to be quite generous and kind to Spurs, you could say, well the two goals they did concede was a deflection and a penalty. It could have been better for them, but equally too, Arsenal did create a couple of really good opportunities which they didn’t make the most of either.

I think two-two was probably a fair result, but I think Spurs will obviously come out of it feeling more bullish about things and another massive test for them this weekend when Liverpool arrive. I think we’ll start to learn a lot more about Postecoglou and Spurs this weekend as we did last weekend to see if they can challenge and contend for that sort of top four, top five position this time around.


Yeah, and at the other end we had Everton winning, Brad, which is almost like now it has to be like a national bank holiday.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, whenever Everton come away with three points, I feel like the entire country is put on notice. Not necessarily because they’re going to threaten for anything serious, but it’s just some way, somehow over the past few seasons, Everton have found a way to survive with less than quality on the pitch. I was actually pretty disappointed in the performance by Brentford. I thought that was somewhere where they at least walk away with one point, but at no point in that contest did I really believe that Brentford were going to walk away with a point. Good win for Sean Dyche and company. Great way to get three points. I mean, now I’m pretty sure getting three points at this point in the season is going to be almost a league saver, especially away from home.


Okay, you remember, we’ve got five games. Let’s have a quick look at the records as we go into week seven. We’re through six weeks and we’re over 1.12 and remainder two, so 6.74 units of profit, all chipping in. Okay, so let’s get cracking. Let’s get underway. Remember Q and A and chat will come up.

We’re only covering five games, but the first one is an absolute cracker. It’s Aston Villa versus Brighton. Aston Villa at +152, Brighton at +160. Flip that coin. The draw is at +295. Goals must be guaranteed here. That’s why the goal line set at 3.25 and the over is still juiced at the -115. Mark O’Haire, where do we start here? Because Villa versus Brighton, both teams score, but which team is going to take three points, if one of the teams are taking three points?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it is very difficult to answer. I think I found this match quite hard to decipher in terms of who I would want to be with. Probably would still be Brighton even if that price is looking ever so short, so you can probably get them on side with a quarter goal start, which would be fair enough.

But I’m quite happy just to leave both teams alone and focus on the goals. As you suggested, it should be a really entertaining game. These two teams are amongst the best performers in 2023 alongside Arsenal and Liverpool in terms of points earned and I think we’ve got an interesting clash of styles when the two teams meet as well, but neither team are flawless. They both have real weapons at their disposal to make a real impact and I just like the direction of travel that both sides are taking. The ambition shown by both clubs and also the coaches. Clearly there’s a sort of concise and consistency about what they’re doing right now.

Yeah, I kind of respect both teams but Brighton, we’ll start with them really because they are the top goalscorers in the Premier League. They are a team who are bettering Manchester City’s expected goals output across the whole reign of Roberto De Zerbi, which is now 12 months long. The fact that they’re outplaying Manchester City or out maneuvering them in that particular metric is astonishing really.

They tend to guarantee goals. If you look at their 18 away games under De Zerbi, 3.78 goals per game, 15 of 18 went over two and a half and 15 of 18 also saw BTTS. The most interesting stats for me really is Brighton have scored twice or more themselves and 11 of those, but they’ve also conceded twice or more on 12 occasions as well. Wherever Brighton go, goals tend to follow.

Aston Villa at Villa Park have been phenomenal under Unai Emery. Nine wins on the spin in the Premier League, that includes a two-one victory over Brighton towards the back end of last year. They’re averaging 2.13 goals at home under Emery in those 15 fixtures, 11 of which went over two and a half and nine saw both teams to score.

If you look at their home and away games this season, Villa has seen a three-one and a four-nil. Brighton have seen a three-one and a four-one away. So of course all of which have rounded for the over three and a half. I can understand why the market has set the goal total as high as it has. All six of Brighton’s games have gone over three and a half. Four of Villa’s six games have also gone over three and a half.

If you look at the expected goals, Villa’s games are averaging 3.69, Brighton’s 3.79. Just astonishing numbers really. More than happy to get involved in goals. Obviously the prices are pretty short, so I’ve been a little bit inventive this week and this match forms the first of a two legged parlay on the Premier League, so I’ll be choosing both teams to score in this particular match and I’ll reveal the second leg later on.


Yeah, I do favor the home side though, Brad, because I think Villa got away with murder last week. Late goals obviously against Crystal Palace, but Brighton, I think we’re going to spring these and I think Brighton score a couple of goals. I was almost going to go with a team total of Brighton scoring twice at -112 because if Villa do have a weakness, it is in transition and it is at the back.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I’m going to go with something that has a little bit more meat on the bones. It might be recency bias with the two matches, actually the three matches that we’ve seen from Villa. The League Cup match, the match versus Chelsea, and the match versus Crystal Palace. Maybe fortunate to get results in those matches or they got results in two of the three matches.

I’m going to go with Brighton double chance and both teams to score at +145. For me, the number’s a little bit more appropriate than laying juice or paying the vig on a pick’em at -107.

Mark touched on it. Goals have been had on both sides of the pitch here and what’s really funny to look at, this is one of those instances where you really kind of have to watch the matches a little bit closer because you might just look at the stats and say Villa haven’t conceded much at home. Then you have to look at the two teams that they’ve played at home in Crystal Palace, who probably could have scored multiple goals in that match. It was a match where Palace tied it up early in the second half and Villa were able to get two late goals in that to make the contest not seem as close as it was and then their match against Everton. We know Everton, so obviously the numbers are a little bit skewed here.

But on the other side of the ball, Brighton have been a pretty interesting side. Outside of the Premier League, they look like a team who they’ve put out strong elevens, but leave a lot to be desired and the focal point of that statement is defensively and that kind of bleeds over into the Premier League as well. They have their defensive woes, but I do think this Brighton outfit is a great attacking side. They consistently put pressure on you and De Zerbi deserves all of the credit for doing what he does with the players that he has. It seems that it doesn’t matter who they sell or who they bring in, he gets the most out of them.

A good example of that is Danny Welbeck. Danny Welbeck is a player who might’ve been cast off quite a few times by a bunch of different clubs and I think he’s playing at a really good level. Same with João Pedro. He’s playing at a very high level. De Zerbi is literally maximizing the players that he has. It doesn’t matter the name on the back of the shirt, they’re playing for the badge on the front, which I think they’re going to be in for a good season. I just literally love the price on this double chance. That protects me if it’s two-two, but if they win three-one, three-two, I cash in full.


Yeah, I love that. If you go over to betusustv.com/odds, you’re going to see the prop builder and everything else that’s new. By the way, remember if the golden ticket is under one of our names, if you win, make sure you contact us on social media, obviously preferably Twitter, but if it’s not Twitter then make sure you tell us that so you can basically, we can communicate and get you into the big draw.

Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because I know one, well both, everyone’s got creative. Because both teams to score with a P means it’s the first leg of a two-leg parlay for Mark O’Haire, which will be obviously partnered up with another one very, very soon. Brighton double chance and over two and half is a +145 for me. Brighton draw no bet at -110, but we saw that Brighton draw no bet is now -107. So if you don’t mind, I’ll add them three little cents. I know you can’t buy anything with them, but for me it just looks visually better at -107.

Let’s move on to game number two. Newcastle -315. Unbelievable tonic midweek knocking out Man City in the cup. Burnley more than matched Manchester United but did go down one-nil to an unbelievable goal from Bruno Fernandes and they’re at +855. The goal line is at three and over three is at -122. I thought this game could be quite tight, Brad, and the draw at +485. Do Newcastle score three because if they do, you’re going to be paid at +105.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I was thinking about a couple of different ways to play this. I think I leaned initially, when I did my first breakdown, Newcastle to win and over two and a half goals. This is one of those matches where if you look at it on paper, especially from the results that they’ve had so far this season, you could leave yourself scratching at your head. Only one team in the Premier League have conceded more goals than Burnley, but Burnley haven’t looked entirely poor and maybe they’ve had a little bit of a difficult road ahead.

Newcastle haven’t played well until their last match and then they put out an 11 that wasn’t really an aggressive attacking 11 and still somehow scored eight goals in that contest. Then I thought about it from just a possession to shot possibility and shot creation and I ended up going with Newcastle minus one and a half. I’d imagine much like Newcastle do when playing at home, they will suffocate the possession. Burnley, they like to play on the front foot but it’s just not the Championship and they haven’t been doing so as much as they’d prefer. With Newcastle dominating the possession, I think one goal opens this up. They say soccer is like a bottle of ketchup. All it takes is one squirt and the whole bottle flows.


Who says that? I’ve never heard that before in my life.

Brad Thomas:

Maybe it’s an American saying but I think it’s one of those-


Well, get rid of it because it’s never been. You mean like a bottle of pop?

Brad Thomas:

A bottle of pop when it explodes, it explodes and I think it’s one of those matches that can happen for Newcastle because if they get that early goal and the game becomes stretched, I trust the counter attacking of Newcastle to pick… This also protects me from a two-nil victory for Newcastle by not playing the other way. For me, it’s Newcastle minus one and a half goals. I would also be tempted in Newcastle first half corner handicap, but I just wanted to isolate my handicap on this one.


I agree with that and I also agree with you, Mitch, that Newcastle win to nil or, because I can’t see Burnley scoring. Listen, +100 for Burnley not to score. Burnley, they’ve got some players they just don’t finish off any half chances and when you’re at the bottom, Mark O’Haire, you have got to finish your half chances. It does look a little bit like though men versus boys in the middle of the park.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I’m still not going to rule out the promoted teams, well particularly Burnley, because I think it’s worth noting that last season Wolves started and they only had one win from the first nine I think it was. They still stayed up. Forest, newly promoted last season, signed enough players to fill three squads, won once in the first nine games. They stayed up. I think they only had five points at that stage as well, so it’s not all doom and gloom really for Burnley and I think you are right, Flash.

Against Manchester United last week they were competitive. They were capable of going toe-to-toe with United, but just lacked a bit of penalty box presence and I think that was due to Foster’s suspension really. I’m surprised they didn’t do more work in forward areas in the transfer market, but I think the midfield is good enough to match most. It’s just in both boxes where I have concerns about them. Their finishing ability but also the defensive cohesion because Connor Roberts is basically the only sort of player from last season to still be there, so they’re still vetting in a new look defense.

Ultimately, yeah, this is a very tough away game. I’ve not been overly convinced by Newcastle at all this season but obviously it’s hard to be not impressed by what they did last week against Sheffield United. I don’t think we’ll see anything quite as close as that this time around, but you do expect Newcastle to win the game with room to spare. I thought was very noticeable that last weekend Eddie Howe was able to bring Isak, Tonali, and Livramento off the bench against Sheffiled United. It’s three players who cost a combined $160 million. It just blows the likes of Sheffield United and Burnley away. So yeah, I think in terms of just pure quality, Newcastle should win this with a bit of room to spare but quite happy to cheer Brad on in this department


Yeah, and just remember they’re not going to start [inaudible 00:17:47]. They play against PSG next week in the Champions League. First game at home in the Champions League. It is going to be like, okay, maybe we get to one or two nil. Brad, I do like your one and a half. I do think they win by two clear, but I don’t expect no five-nils and five-ones just because they scored eight last week when all them buses came at once.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks please. Newcastle-Burnley. Newcastle far stronger but Burnley have got a spirit. Newcastle minus one and a half at -116. Remember the goal line there is at three.

Let’s move on to game number three of five. Wolves versus Man City. Wolves +795. Man City -295. Draws at +467. Man City to score three at +115. Man City don’t score three on the road very often and if you think they’re going to go under two and a half, then it’s -145. Mark O’Haire, Wolves versus Man City. A bit disappointed in Wolves last week. I know they went down to 10 men against Luton, but their creativity was, I think they were more than matched by Luton, but Wolves to score is at -145. Where are you going with this game?

Mark O’Haire:

Well, I think you’ve got to be pro Man City in some way or form. I’ll start with Wolves because I think they’ve been quite hard to read. I think there’s been a few standout moments, the obvious being the opening day defeat against Man United that lives on in the memory. The first half performance against Liverpool at Molineux immediately after the break was really impressive. Both suggest they can compete and cause problems to Manchester City, but the negatives do outweigh the positives because they crumbled in the second half against Liverpool. Unable to live with the attacking firepower. Kloop just kind of raided his bench, put all his attacking players on the field and Wolves couldn’t cope with that.

You mentioned last weekend I thought they were really disappointing. Lethargic, out of possession, lack of imagination in possession. Now have a suspension to Bellegarde, who’s been one of their better players in recent weeks. Actually their only win this season came against Everton and they were second best for the most of that match as well.

You look at, I know small samples, but they’ve lost all four matches against the top half, current top half teams. They’ve conceded three goals or more in three of those games as well. Are they going to be able to keep City at bay? I don’t think so. There might be a sort of ray of hope really that Rodri is suspended, but you look at who might replace him. Matheus Nunes played central midfielder last week. Mateo Kovacic is due back from injury and then you’ve got Kalvin Phillips as well, so they’re hardly lacking for alternatives to sort fill that void. I know he is the best in the world in that position, but City aren’t short of options so they’re more than capable of extending this winning streak from six to six to seven from seven.

They’ve been fairly routine, bar perhaps a couple of hiccups at Shuffle United away, but what’s most going to grab my attention is their record at bottom half teams. Since 2018-19, they’ve gone away and won 84% of these kind of fixtures. They’ve already beaten Birmingham and Sheffield United away relatively comfortably so to speak.

If you look at their record this season. Five of their six wins have included under four and a half goals. The game that didn’t, they scored five goals against Sunderland from just seven shots. Last season, seven of their nine wins away at bottom half teams came alongside under four and a half goals. In fact, 17 of the last 22 away days to bottom half teams also saw them win and under four and a half goals, so that will be my selection at -125.


Yeah, I don’t blame you again because Man City, they’ll also have an eye on the Champions League in midweek and to be fair to Wolves, they are well organized and they do compete. They just don’t dominate, Brad, and when you’re at home, you’ve got to jump all over these sides. They went one-nil up against Liverpool and you’re thinking, go on then, go and get the second. No, they rolled over, had their belly tickled, and Liverpool were more than comfortable come the 95th minute.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, I like the way Mark’s playing this bet here, but I ultimately passed. There’s a lot of question marks of how Wolves come out. I feel like at some side of the pitch we’re going to have some kind of breakdown and what I mean is either one team is going to kind of regress, maybe Wolves. Wolves have played all right. It’s funny to say a team in their position on the table is due for some regression but it’s hard to continuously play the way they play and we saw that in the League’s Cup match where they just play chaotic. I feel like I’ve said that every week. Where they play really chaotic and then it costs them.

I ended up staying away because I didn’t know whether to play over, under, if I wanted to play City to win over two and a half goals, or City to win and under three and a half goals for plus money. Even one bet that I haven’t got quite to the window yet, but it would make total sense and that’s Manchester City on the first half corner handicap -1.25.

Why I like that a little, haven’t got quite there. Wolves allow the fourth most final third touches and we already know what Manchester City do. They dominate possession. They don’t let you on their side of the pitch and they get quality looks. Problem is they haven’t hit this at a high frequency so far this season and Wolves have actually started out their matches pretty aggressively and pretty impressive actually. It ultimately left me off this game entirely. I might look for a live line. With Manchester City being -290. If they don’t score in the first half, you could probably bet them around -150 on the money line.


Yeah, the big problem you have with Man City is since, I mean I was in shorts the last time Man City won a goal or saw a corner handicapped bet because they don’t have many corners. Wolves coming out of the traps is probably their best opportunity to actually sling the ball in that box.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks here because I think Mark O’Haire has probably got the best of it, but I’ll do maybe like Man City to score three. Man City in under four and a half at -125. Maybe a little three-nil comfortable victory and everyone will be happy. So -125 for Man City to win and under four and a half goals. Let’s move on. Also, remember to put in the chat who you think has the golden ticket underneath their name.

Now then, we’re going to North London. It’s Tottenham at +200, which is massive. Liverpool +120. Little bit of disrespect here for the home side. Draw is at +305. Tottenham are -112 to score twice. Liverpool haven’t been keeping clean sheets. Liverpool are scoring goals themselves, but -145? I mean, do we start this game Brad at two-two?

Brad Thomas:

This is a funny, funny match. Kind of jealous of the way Mark O’Haire played this one. I don’t want to give away his secrets, but man, it’s a great way to play it, especially with the price looking at -260 when you play it singularly.

I actually played Liverpool team total over five and a half corners for plus money there. Why I say that is you say we start this match at two-two, but if the prices were flipped, if under three and a half goals were to be -102, I would play that. We say that these teams are such high quality scoring sides, but it’s really, really difficult to say that Premier League two sides are going to score four goals. In a lot of contests that would be more than 51% of the time, so I’d probably say the value would be on the other side. I’m actually just going to stick with corners.

When I talked about this angle that I played against Tottenham last time, I should have played it the other way. What I mean is I believe Tottenham score the first goal in this contest. It feels like every match so far this season, whether that’s domestic or in any type of European or cup matches, Liverpool concedes the first goal. They give the other team a bit of a headstart and then they scratch and claw their way back.

If you want to play the corner handicap, I don’t blame you. Liverpool have won every corner handicap except two. Tottenham have lost everyone except two. I just think this is one of those matches that’s going to be end-to-end and if Tottenham score first, Liverpool are going to be fighting their way back in. They’re going to play on the boundaries. It’s probably my favorite look of the weekend, especially with the plus money price tag hanging over it.


I just cannot believe they’re not closer, Mark O’Haire. Spurs +200. I mean, I think that these two sides are going to battle it out for maybe third and fourth, maybe second and fourth, second and third. Liverpool will be scoring goals, but Spurs at home, I just think all the values with the home side.

Mark O’Haire:

I’d rather be with Spurs than Liverpool. I still have trust issues really with Liverpool away from home, which stems back from last season really. Going back to last season’s meeting between these two teams, Tottenham were around +270 I believe to win this match and that was with Harry Kane. So huge respect the market is already giving Tottenham off a six game sample under Postecoglou, but it’s warranted really from what we’ve seen so far.

The argument before the North London Darby was the schedule’s being quite kind and they’ve not really been tested, a poor Manchester United team being the best opponents they’ve had, but I think last weekend they expelled it, all those myths really, going to the Emirates and putting on a show as they did.

I love all the players at the minute, particularly Bissouma and Sarr in the middle. Maddison’s clearly enjoying himself and Brennan Johnson’s going to get better and better. Son’s thriving in the forward role as well. Spurs will fancy this. They’ve scored twice or more in all six of their games so far this season. As we know, Liverpool are far from solid at the back. They’ve conceded in five of their six games and as Brad says, they’ve been making very slow starts. They’re not the finished article, they are still in transition, particularly in midfield.

Even if we go back to the last weekend. West Ham could have scored a couple more in that first half at Anfield. A great save from Alisson, a poor miss from Antonio as well. West Ham are creating chances at Anfield, Bournemouth created loads of chances at Anfield, so why can’t Spurs do the same? The issue I have really for being pro Tottenham here is can they keep out Liverpool’s firepower because it’s probably the best in the world at the minute in terms of squad personnel. Salah, Núñez, Diaz, Gakpo, even Mac Allister, Szoboszlai from midfield.

It’s unbelievable really what they have available to them and they’re not going to be intimidated by Tottenham. They’re going to fancy their chances too. Fully expecting goals and entertainment. BTTS has been the right bet in five or six Liverpool games, four of Spurs’ six as well. Over three and a half has landed in each team, or half of each team six fixtures too. I’m fully expecting another two-two, three-one either way. The XG averages are very, very high. Liverpool themselves have also scored twice or more in five of their opening six. So goal heavy game fully expecting and happy to tie this in with both teams to score selection alongside the Aston Villa versus Brighton game. You get +100 on the BTTS double, which is my standout play of the weekend.


Yeah, listen, I couldn’t agree more. I just want, every now and again you have got to say it’s team A, team B, but I want to be with the home side because I don’t see 80 cents between these two sides because I like the fact of the balance of Bissouma and Sarr going up against good players for Liverpool in the midfield, but not great players at this moment.

Then you’ve got Son and Maddison sitting in a hole against a Liverpool side who don’t keep clean sheets. But then you’ve got the Liverpool boys of, I mean, Diaz and Núñez and Salah, Gakpo. They’re all proper players. I mean, both teams are scoring over must be an absolute shoo-in in this game.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I love this game. I think it’s an end-to-end. If I can get Spurs just in front, I think we could be in for a bit of a bonus to be honest. Both teams to score, the P next to it means it’s the second leg of the parlay for Mark O’Haire and the parlay is at +100. I like that Mark O’Haire and I may well jump on that personally. Draw, no bet for me. Spurs +130. I don’t think they get beat. Liverpool over five and a half corners in the game at +115. We’ve dissected it really, really well there. Roll on the little three-two to Spurs and we’re entertained as well.

Let’s go to the final game. Remember, who’s got the golden ticket? Fulham host Chelsea. Fulham at +255. Chelsea +105. Cannot be with Chelsea for love nor money, but I also can’t fade them neither. Look at this though. Fulham not to score is +205. That’s telling, are you kidding me? That number just jumps. I had to investigate with three different people to make sure that the number was right. Under two and a half goals at -105. That’s a runner. If you are going under two and a half goals, I mean you could easily see Fulham nil, Chelsea nil. Fulham nil, Chelsea one. Mark O’Haire, you go first here because this is that West London Derby. Chelsea actually play on the Fulham road. I just see this game being so, so tight, but I’m not sure Fulham have got what it takes to beat Chelsea if they’re at it.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I’m not sure. I’m not sure I want to be with either team in all honesty. Chelsea, for all the same reasons we talk about almost every week at the minute, their underlying metrics look fairly decent so far, but you have to balance it out by the soft schedule they’ve had. It’s not been the hardest of fixture list so far and with the eye test, you can see a disjointed team. An inexperienced group of players who are still finding their feet and I think it’s probably quite telling that the smart coaches like Potter or Pochettino haven’t been able to form a semblance of a team just yet and team being the key word there. They do look a little bit raw. They do look like they’re lacking composure, leadership. I said as well in previous weeks that their decision making and execution has been pretty off.

It’s been erratic and even the substitutes bench doesn’t fill you with confidence either if you’re a Chelsea backer at a short price. Beggar’s belief really when you consider the sums they’ve invested in that score over the last 12 months. Yeah, if you look at the calendar year table, Chelsea are at bottom of the list now. They’ve won just five games this calendar year in the Premier League. They’ve got the lowest goals per game output and even Everton have equaled their points tally with two games fewer. That goes to show how diabolically bad Chelsea has been this calendar year.

But equally Fulham, do I trust them even at a big price? Probably not to be honest. Since Mitrovic has left, there has been a lot of prophecy for them in the final third, which is kind of understandable. He allowed them to outperform their own metrics in forward areas last season. Jiménez, as we keep saying, isn’t good enough to lead the line anymore unfortunately. They have to make a change or do something different there. Bernd Leno has been brilliant between the sticks and then you’ve got João Palhinha, as I say every week, just marauding around the middle, shoring things up defensively.

I wanted to oppose goals in this game. My original selection was BTTS no at plus money, but as you can see on the screen there under two and a half goals at -105 gives you that extra bit of security against a potential one-one in this match. On BTSS, know it’s landed in 8 of their combined 12 games already this season. I’ve already mentioned both sides are struggling in the final third. They failed to net in 5 of those 12 games collectively.

Interestingly too, Fulham actually lead the league, or joint leaders of the league, in terms of clean sheets earned, three, from the first six games, which really did surprise me. Also too, you’ve got to factor in suspensions. Chelsea’s lead striker, Nicolas Jackson is banned from this match too after collecting five yellow cards in six games, which is some going. Yeah, with both sides question marks in forward areas, the obvious solution here is to oppose goals and I think under two and a half goals at -105 is well worthy of a selection here.


Yeah, and this is the other one. Chelsea are +255 to win to nil, but the nil-nil is a runner. It is a runner because Chelsea, for me, if I’m the Chelsea manager, I’m finding the working class lads and sticking them across midfield because if you think that you are going to have time on the ball in this game, you are not. So just clear the ball, don’t mess about, because some of these boys at Chelsea, they’ve got to pinch themselves. Make sure you have photos taken in your Chelsea kit because people are not going to believe that the talent that’s gone to Chelsea is worthy of Chelsea. Brad, the boy, Thiago Silva, he’s without doubt the best defender at this football club. He’s like 39 and they’ve spent a billion dollars. What is going on with the recruitment here?

Brad Thomas:

It’s funny, right? You have a guy like Thiago Silva who’s playing so well and he’s on the older side. Let’s call a spade a spade. But they bring in these young players, these high price players, big names that don’t really pan out and as you’d say, they’re probably not proper footballers, but that’s good for Mark O’Haire’s bet, right?

What’s funny to see about Chelsea, and we look at their numbers. They’re top four in shots per 90. They have an XG of about 1.57, but they’re only averaging 0.83 goals per contest. Not getting a lot of shots in the penalty box. Not getting a lot of shots in the final third, and now Nicolas Jackson’s out, so I don’t think they’re going to get as many final third touches as they’d like. It’s going to be very, very interesting to see how they approach this match because the quality that they’re putting on the pitch is almost, I almost feel bad for Chelsea supporters.

If we were to stop this show right now and do a futures show, I would take Chelsea to finish bottom 10 for +500. I looked at that price last night just because, yes, the underlying metrics are okay. It does suggest positive regression, but as Mark has said, that their schedule’s a little bit soft and I don’t think that if you’re not getting quality looks, you’re just going to start converting because you’re taking 19, 17 shots per contest. That’s just not how football works.

You’re not just going to keep, it’s not like you’re playing basketball where if you keep shooting eventually one’s going to go in. No, you have to have quality looks to convert them. Yeah, this is going to be probably a stinker for me. Maybe nil-nil is not out of the cards. Fulham, especially I want to add this, Fulham was one of my losing bets, I believe it was last week or the week before, on a boat teams to score. They do a really good job of keeping teams out. It’s actually way more impressive than I thought it’d be preseason and I think that I was using the preseason notions that I had that they would be a little bit more leaky and I let them bleed a little bit too far into the season. Now that I’ve been proven wrong, I’m okay with fading goals here.


Yeah, I bet you are. I mean this could do, obviously set pieces may come into play. Maybe Chelsea play a false nine. But some of these boys, honestly, if you are in the trenches with them, you might as well just go over the top because you are not going to last long. This is not a side at the moment with the personnel that they’re going to dig in. They take too many touches and it was typified a couple of weeks ago when they played Bournemouth and they drew and they came off the pitch, lucky to get a draw because after five minutes they got the ball on the edge of their own box, with 15 yards of space, you know what he did? He turned around and played it backwards. For me, I want forward-thinking players and Raheem Sterling, we flatters to deceive. On his day he’s great, and not on his day, he’s an absolute passenger. But so are about seven or eight others. Cannot trust him, but good luck to him anyway.

Let’s have a look at the official picks. Both teams to score, no, +120 has now been changed to Mark O’Haire going with under two and a half goals at -105. For me, I’ve gone Fulham team total under 0.5 at +205. Brings in the nil-nil and the skinny one-nil. I cannot believe that +205.

Okay, let’s move on. It’s now time for the Q and A and I will be quick because I’m also going to ask you to subscribe and ring the bell. But remember, we did say to you who has the golden ticket? So whoever has the golden ticket, let’s have a little thing. Let’s say if it’s Brad with the golden ticket seeing as he bought a tough truck this week. That’s great, one with a little bit of trims. Oh, it’s Mark O’Haire. So if you said Mark O’Haire, you will go in the draw and I’ll announce that after the best bets and if you are the winner, please make sure that you send us all your details on Twitter and basically contact us on DM message or any other social media network.

The other thing is get yourself over to betustv.com/toughtruck. Remember, if you go to betustv.com/join, you’ve got 125% bonus waiting for you there and 30 risk-free bets because it is our 30th anniversary. Any questions? Let’s have a little look. Yassir say, Arsenal minus one or Man United minus one? Mark O’Haire, which one do you like?

Mark O’Haire:

Probably begrudgingly I’d take United in that sense. I think a better bet in the Arsenal match might be to oppose goals. The goal line is at three. I wouldn’t mind the under three in that game. Arsenal are much more considered whenever they play away from home under Arteta. If you look back to the season since the start of last year, there’s a lot of clean sheets in there, a lot of narrow away victories, so wouldn’t expect them to cut loose in that fixture. I think it could be a tight victory but a victory even still for the Gunners and probably just United because their Old Trafford record is strong. But even still, I’m not at the trusting phase for them at the minute either so yeah, begrudgingly United.


Brad, what about Jack Simpson saying, can Luton get anything out of Everton? Everton I think were like -157 the last time I looked, but it’s just one of those leave them alone surely.

Brad Thomas:

Yeah, this is where just save your money. If you were to ask me, I’d play Luton plus one on the goal handicap. When’s the last time we’ve seen Everton win back to back contest by multiple goals? Ages. Luton looked good. Despite not winning against Wolves, they looked like a really quality side. I bet them to score a goal about 15 minutes in. Despite them looking good, I was going gray waiting for them to actually score, even a man up. Looking good and finishing are two different things.

Yeah, that would be one of those situations where if you think either team can get a point or get all three points, just watch it. Have fun, save your money because I don’t have not even the slightest clue of which way this game is going to go.


Okay, Mark O’Haire, just a quick one. JSS says Man United versus Palace. They met midweek. Man United came out on top. Much of the same?

Mark O’Haire:

I didn’t see the cup game. I tend to ignore all the cup matches. There’s enough football taking place in Serie A and La Liga and whatever happens in midweek in the cup games when teams have made multiple changes has very little bearing on what happens to the weekend, so don’t know.


Okay, Slim Slim says Darwin Nunez to score. Well, I’ve got Spurs draw no bet, but I am cheering on Darwin Nunez every time he sets foot on the pitch because I think he’s great. What I was saying about not having players in the trenches, he’s one I would love to have in a trench because he keeps going. He misses, he misses obvious ones, but he also has unbelievable talent, attitude, and he must be a great teammate.

Okay, let’s have a little look at the best bets please. Here we go. Mark O’Haire parlay is Villa and both teams to score in the Villa-Brighton game. Tottenham-Liverpool both teams to score is a +100. Man City and under four and a half at -125. Remember, Man City just to score three in that game is -112. Fulham-Chelsea, both teams to score, no at +120 is actually now under two and a half goals in that game at around -105 for me. Brighton draw no bet -110, although I’m taking the -107. Tottenham draw no bet +130. Fulham team total under 0.5 at +205. Come on Chelsea, just keep a clean sheet.

Brad’s gone for Brighton double chance and over two and a half at +145 courtesy of the Bet US prop builder. Newcastle minus one and a half at -116. Remember, Newcastle do host PSG next week in the Champions League, which you can obviously join us on Monday with Mark O’Haire and Mina Rzouki. Liverpool over five and a half corners at +115.

Okay, who is going to be contacting us via Twitter or social media to tell us that they are winning and Sam. Sam, I know you are on social media because you are one of the good guys, so good luck Sam. Make sure you just send the BetUS TV or BetUS Soccer on Twitter a DM please.

From Mark O’Haire, Mark O’Haire, I’ll see you Monday. Champions League, yeah? Selections Sunday evening, Sunday night. That’ll be great. Good luck to obviously Team Europe and the USA for this weekend’s Ryder Cup. Brad, no speeding. I know you’ve got the baby on the way, but no speeding in your Tough Truck. From Mark O’Haire, Brad Thomas, from myself. Everyone in the chat, thumbs up on the way out. Spread the word. You take care.


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