Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel, I’m Flash. It’s Premier League Show and it’s matchday seven. What did we see last week? Well, Man United, third win in a row, but I’ll tell you what, they were not as convincing as the scoreline says. Arsenal were good, but got beat. Dropped points by Manchester City and then the teams go into Europe. Well listen, we’ve got a lot to discuss. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so we’d like you to subscribe and also we’d like you to ring the bell ring and the bell means that we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you’re on social media, then please follow @BetUSTV because all the sports are now kicking off in the US. NFL week one this week. NCAAF which is college football, is kicking off as well, so please, follow @BetUSTV and they will cover you.
The link in description is for the shirt contest. I contacted four people yesterday. If you wasn’t contacted and you did enter, then don’t worry because I’m going to leave you in the hat and then this month, they’ll be another four as well. Get yourselves in the chat because we’ve got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, I think we found the value. Remember there’s always a caveat. Now, my two experts are obviously the award winning owner from the UK of We Love Betting in Mark O’Haire and European odds compiler, Stinch. And Stinch is like the one that sniffs out value and when lines are completely wrong. But first of all, I’m going to come to you, Mark O’Haire, because there was a few dodgy results last week and we were on the wrong side. I say we, not you.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I mean I can’t believe we’re already on matchday seven, Flash. It’s-
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
I know. It’s crazy.
Mark O’Haire:
… it’s whizzed by and now with the European competition kicking in as well, I can barely remember what happened last week, let alone what happened in midweek. It’s that intense and it’s going to get even more intense before the World Cup in November, so football is moving fast. Thomas Tuchel has lost his job, Liverpool looked at shambles midweek, but last weekend, what happened? I know I went two from two. I can’t really tell what anyone else did because it’s literally the way things are going at the minute.
Yeah, you mentioned United-Arsenal, which I agree with you actually, I think Arsenal play pretty well, between both boxes. I think they let themselves down probably in the final third and also, look a bit immature with some of their defending. For me, I’m still trying to work out Man United, see where they actually are at because they have improved immeasurably defensively and certainly the personnel that have come into the team, since he’s made the changes, have improved matters. But we’re still probably not seeing the swashbuckling attack minded team that we’ve probably been promised in the summer. So I still think they’re work in progress and there’ll still be tougher tasks to come, but certainly beating Arsenal and Liverpool at Old Trafford has to be considered a big positive.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, Stinch, I watched most of these teams as I normally always do. Disgrace was the word I came out when I watched a Brighton versus Leicester and obviously, I’m talking about Leicester. I mean, three of the goals that they let in were actually three or four missed timed tackles in the same buildup. They weren’t putting effort in, they weren’t tracking and the defending is a joke. Tuchel loses his job and yet Rodgers hangs on in there?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, Leicester haven’t been very cohesive at all in their opening six fixtures. I watched them against Man United on the Thursday before and Man United weren’t anything special at all, but Leicester just didn’t create anything going forward, just weren’t fluid at all. I think they’re suffering a little bit with playing players out of position, so Ndidi at center back rather than central midfield is an example. I know we weren’t probably big fans of Kasper Schmeichel but at least he was a bit of a leader there at the back and an organizer, he’s talked quite a lot.
They’ve got Danny Ward in there who looks a little bit out of place in their Premier League XI, so it’s kind of no surprise they’re bottom of the league. But just quickly on Man United, I think they’re being very fortunate they’re managing to score the opening goal in these latest games that they’ve been winning because it just meant that they’ve been able to sit back, soak up the pressure and then hit on the counter attack with the pace and guile of the attacking players that they have. So I think it’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when they actually go behind in a match.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, I was a bit surprised that Mikel Arteta, at 1-1, decided to go all in and obviously, Man United then get the second and then they get the third and it was almost like, “Hey, be patient.” It was like he was playing poker and he got bored and just threw his chips in when, for me, Man United weren’t the better side against Arsenal. Remember to get yourselves in the chat here, by the way, and I was just reading something from El Dante who looks like… let me just tell you what he says, “Arsenal can’t defend, fragile at the back, lacking leadership and Arteta can be naive.” I agree with a naivety bit, but I thought Arsenal were really good, considering a couple of their players are not even hitting any form. But there’s some other sides we’ve got to talk about and one of is Brighton, Mark O’Haire. Brighton, they’ve just gone from strength to strength to strength and look what happens, now they’re going to lose their manager, their backroom staff and their recruitment officer as well. So maybe Brighton, do we have to stay clear of them now?
Mark O’Haire:
I would leave them alone this weekend just because of the upheaval that goes into that game, particularly playing a Bournemouth team who are fresh off the back of that incredible comeback really, at Nottingham Forest. And they’ve earned four points from their last two games and certainly look a lot more rounded now that Gary O’Neil has taken charge on a temporary matter. So it does feel like a bit of a banana skin backing Brighton at short prices with Potter sort of upping and leaving. Certainly would always be happy sort of leave those kind of occasions alone when managers have just left and they’re in a bit of flux.
But I think longer term, I have got faith in Brighton finding the right candidate to fill the void. Might not be the next Graham Potter, but I’m certainly sort of confident in the leadership of that club to find the right character, to sit into that system and continue the sort of slow progress in the right direction. I don’t expect them now to sort of feature in the shake up for the top six, not that they would’ve under Potter, but that’s the way they’ve been projecting at least for the last 12 months or so in terms of the underlying metrics. But I don’t anticipate a huge downturn, but it obviously depends on who they manage to get into the dugout in the next week or so.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
God, it’s amazing that Gary O’Neil, I remember when he was a young boy at Portsmouth. I was training, getting back from my first broken leg and he’s like a 17-year-old and they said that he would be a player and now he’s the manager of a Premier League side. Okay listen, let’s kick off with obviously the records. The records weren’t so bad as it goes last week. I think we nicked a bit. I’ve gone to -3 which is good because I was at -5, so I was happy to pick up a couple of units. That was mainly down to Man United scoring twice and both teams to score and over. Marco O’Haire at 3.9, Stinch at 6.48. Prop of the week came in or didn’t it, Liverpool-Everton, 0-0, but don’t worry, we cashed +100, over 10 1/2 corners and a total, 8.45.
What a difference a year make lads, that’s a great start. I’m really, really, really pleased with that because now, we’ve got no excuses. We always say that if we’re anywhere near parity after six weeks, we’re in good form. We’re up 8.45. Okay, let’s kick off. We’ve got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 games. I’ve gone with value this week because I’ve gone back to my old average. If you can’t split them, then go down the middle. So game number one, we talked about Leicester being shocking, well, Aston Villa are their visitors and they got an unbelievable draw last week. Probably not deserved, but still, you play 90 minutes and you see where the dice fall. It’s Leicester versus Aston Villa. Leicester at +150, Villa at +190, tells you it’s a flip them game. So you look straight down the bottom for the draw at +245. The under or over is at 2 1/2 with the over being at -120. Mark O’Haire, I’m going to come to you first because -120 on over 2 1/2 for Leicester, is that not just close your eyes and point?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, you know the drill, Flash, it’s just a rinse and repeat job. I mean, we don’t need to go too much into detail. I’ll try and sort of explain my thinking behind this, but firstly, I think the moneyline is quite interesting because the market is effectively rating Aston Villa as the stronger team here. I think the home advantage for Leicester should at least make it a bit of a pick’em really, but it’s not an… we can’t really back Leicester on the back of five successive defeats and 16 goals against, but what I would say is the schedule has been pretty tough for them. They’ve already had to face three big six teams and they’ve not faced anyone currently below 12th. I know it’s very early in the season, but below 12th in the current standing.
So yes, the eye test isn’t very good, Stinch is right, they’re playing players out of position, systematically and individually they look a mess defensively, but I would say I was quite happy that Rodgers dropped Vardy and went within Iheanacho and Daka up-front against Brighton. I thought they did pretty well in fairness. And that’s what we’ve talked about from time after time, they do have that ability in the final third to score goals, regardless of the opposition, but you just can’t trust them defensively. As for Aston Villa, I completely agree, fortunate to get that point. Man City’s precision and final ball wasn’t quite on it against Villa. Still, they dominated. They only gave away three shots and Villa scored with their only on target attempt, so Gerrard certainly not out of the woods. They’ve had a much softer schedule compared to Leicester. Four of their six opponents are ranked below 12th in the Premier League at this early stage and they’ve looked pretty flat for all intents and purposes.
But if you had to ask someone in the street, “Where are Leicester’s strengths?” he’d say, “Absolutely in forward areas.” “Where are their weaknesses?” “Defense.” It’s exactly the same for Aston Villa right now. All their ability is in forward areas. Gerrard might not be able to pick the right team just yet, but at least they’ve got the ability to invent and score goals. And if you’re looking to back goals here, neither team has kept a clean sheet this season. Over 2 1/2 goals has won in 13 of Leicester’s last 18, as well as five or six this season. They’ve kept two clean sheets in 19 Premier League games and seen both teams scoring in 15 of those. Aston Villa have scored in all but six to away games since the start of last season, but kept just the six clean sheets on the road as well. So I kind of just put it all into the mix really and just back over 2 1/2 goals and both teams to score. Tends to be more staple when Leicester are involved at the minute and we’re getting +110. I think that’s a cracking price.
Worth bearing in mind as well that both managers are under fierce pressure at the minute. They have to see this match as a really winnable opportunity and I think when that’s on the cards, we tend to see a more open, expansive, at them kind of game rather than a sort of defensive first. I think if you’re Rodgers or Gerrard, the last thing you want to do is go into this game and just try and pick up a point. You have to try and go for it because playing Leicester away or for investor’s purposes, Villa at home, it has to be seen as an opportunity to get points on the board, compared to when you have to play one of the big six teams or a top half team. So I expect this game to be quite an enjoyable one, a watchable one and I’m happy backing goals.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, I’m not surprised. I mean, I think that -120, over 2 1/2 should be a shoeing. But Stinch, Leicester to score twice at +120, but the thing is they let in goals. I remember they let in two against Brentford, they let in five against Brighton, they let in four against Arsenal. That is just crazy the goals that they’re letting in because there’s no midfield, it’s just you attack, I attack. But the big problem I have with this game is I think Villa have got as much chance of winning this game as Leicester, so I’ve gone with a draw. I’ve actually gone with, I can’t split them, I’m taking the draw.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think both defenses are the vulnerable ones here rather than the attacks are amazing. Mark covered the overall aspects of the teams’ stats in terms of their overs games, but if you look at the teams defensively, beginning with Leicester, they’ve got a problem with the goalkeeper, Danny Ward. He’s had a nightmare really, beginning of the season. He’s waited two years I think, for his chance to start. He’s been given the chance to start and he’s just performed as if there’s no goalkeeper in goal, I would say. He just looks a worry every time the ball comes near him. Even with the ball at the feet, he looks awkward.
He fell out with Ndidi last week over a pass he gave him and gave one back and against Arsenal, he went missing with the cross into the box. If you look at his performance statistically, he’s rated as the worst goalkeeper in the league this season so far, based on post-shot expected goals, which is, it gives you a very good indication of how many goals a goalkeeper should be saving based on the expectation. And he’s at minus 4.4 and generally, you’d be looking around zero for average performance, so just goes to show you how poorly he’s performing. And then Villa themselves, in the last eight away games, have conceded two or more goals in six of them. So no complicating at all, over 2 1/2 goals, -120. Don’t care if someone goes and wins 5-0.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, I’ve already got it down as a 2-2 draw, to be honest. So I mean, Villa to score twice is at +135 as well. And the other one you got to remember here is, if Villa does quieten Leicester down, the crowd are very, very impatient at the moment and rightfully so. I mean, they’re saying that Rodgers should have gone already, that he hasn’t got a clue, he can’t change a game. So listen, it’s one of those games where I’ve gone with the old average of, if you can’t split them, take the draw at +245. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because we’ve got Leicester who’ve got to get something out the game and Villa who’ll be turning up thinking, “We can get something out the game,” even though they did get beat 2-0 away at Bournemouth.
We’ve got it all covered here though, over 2 1/2 and both teams to score at +110. For me, it’s a draw at +245, brings in the 2-2. And obviously, I’ll cover the boys if it’s just a 1-1, over 2 1/2 at -120. I think that we’ve all got a chance to cash there and I’m just going to have a quick look in the chat before we go onto game number two. Everyone is thinking, they love the both teams to score and over 2 1/2 which brings in both Stinch and Mark O’Haire and who’s to question them when they’re absolutely flying? Okay, let’s move on from the East Midlands and we’re going to go down to the South Coast. Southampton versus Brighton, well, the first thing you do is… sorry, Brighton. Southampton versus is Brentford. It’s Southampton at +10. Brentford, +215. Looks like great value. Straight away, you look at the numbers and it’s over 2 1/2 with the over being at -125. Brentford have scored twice, nearly every single game they’ve played and over 1 1/2 is at +150, Stinch, and the draw looks a good runner again at +255.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, that over price is shortening almost as we speak, I think, because last night, I think it was -115 or even -120, so that tells you exactly where all the money is going and I couldn’t agree more really with the overs. I struggled to separate these two a little bit. I think Southampton is dangerous to oppose them because I think they’ve got a lot of young players that Hasenhüttl is developing, with a massive ceiling really. I’ve been very impressed with their two wins so far this season. Both games they had to come from 1-0 down against Leicester away and Chelsea at home, neither of those easy games. And I think it’s admirable because the way they finished last season was very depressing almost. They sort of got their survival sorted and then they were on the beach seemingly and it looked like it was difficult for them to get back in the groove.
But very impressed with the job Hasenhüttl is doing. Similar praise really, if not more for Thomas Frank. After his second season with Brentford, they seemed to have evolved from losing Christian Eriksen. They put five past Leeds last weekend. Ivan Toney looking almost as if maybe in contention for the England World Cup squad, given the poor form and injuries of the likes of Calvert-Lewin and Callum Wilson. So I think both teams are in a great position right now, no injury problems to any major players or anything like that, so over 2 1/2 goals looks an easy bet to me. 13 of Southampton’s last 18, over 2.5, so 72%. And for Brentford, 13 of their last 17, over 2.5, 76% and the odds here suggests it’s only going to be around a 55% chance. So given the fact that two fixtures last season, the home team has won 4-1 and 3-0, so absolutely no reason not to back over 2 1/2 goals.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
And Mark O’Haire, I look at draw half-time, I think that both these sides come into the game a little bit respectful of the opposition because it’s two athletic sides, but they don’t keep clean sheets. The only clean sheet I can remember Brentford keeping was when they smashed a Man United side who’d left right before half-time already. I’ve got this as a potential 2-2 as well, so that brings in over, it brings the both teams to score. I just see the spoils could well be down the middle, one point each and they move on.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’m happy just to take the result out of the equation and follow Stinch’s lead and back goals again. I’ve been covering Brentford quite extensively on these shows and they’ve largely been really good fun to follow. Last weekend’s game, the 5-2 against Leeds, was pretty exhilarating stuff actually for the neutrals, so really entertaining. Almost four non-penalty expected goals in total in that match alone. 31 shots, 14 on target and despite the scoreline, Leeds actually generated plenty of really good opportunities in that game. And game state may have played a part in their total, but since thrashing Man United, Brentford have been quite open defensively. They’ve allowed 6 1/2 expected goals and 61 shots in four games against Leeds, Palace, Everton and Fulham. Not the hardest of schedules really and they’re giving up opportunities there. The key being they’ve created plenty of their own, over seven non-penalty expected goals in that same sample.
And with Ivan Toney in that mood at the minute, you’d back him to put away any chances that come his way at St. Mary’s, so you combine the for and against npxG figures or expected goals figures and we’re well above 3 1/4 and that’s just in their last four games which is really, really high. So in raw numbers, the goals have been prevalent two, five of six both teams to score winners, four of six over 2 1/2 goals winners so far this season for Brentford, but their defensive record away from home should be highlighted too. They’ve kept two clean sheets in 22 away from home since promotion, but they have scored in 16 of those matches themselves. So you’ve got a 68% hit rate for BTTS and over 2 1/2 goals in Brentford away games since they’ve come into the Premier League, which is a very high number.
And then you’ve got Southampton who I do find tricky to read at times. I think Stinch gave a nice sort of intro into them. They’ve seen four of six over 2 1/2 winners this season, yet to keep a clean sheet themselves, but they’ve scored in 18 of 22 home games in the Premier Leagues since to start our last season which is very, very strong. So just backing two attack minded teams with defenses you can’t trust to go at it this weekend and hopefully see plenty of goals, so over 2 1/2 goals and BTTS again at plus money, +105.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, two athletic teams that are going to have a real go, cue the 0-0. Mitch has got a good one, he’s gone with 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 prop at +375. But listen, again, like we spoke about with the other games, I cannot split these. I could see one of these teams leading to 2-1 with like 10 minutes to go and the other team, Brentford score late goals, Southampton are at home, so again, the draw at +255. And remember if you do go with the draw, it’s always the forgotten result. Let’s have a little look at the official picks here and I do like draw halftime as well, where they might just take a while to feel each other out. Mark O’Haire has gone with over 2 1/2 goals, both teams score at +105, over 2 1/2 goals at -125 and the draw at +255.
That is a mirror image of game number one that we covered. I just think that I’m just going to go with the value this week and if I hit like a 40%, I’m going to be making good, good money. Now what a game we’re going to go to next because these have been in action in Champions League, both kept clean sheets, both scored goals, but it’s Man City at -250, Spurs at +650. Remember, Spurs do go to Man City and they do put their best foot forward. In fact, if there’s one team that Man City have got a little bit of a inferiority complex, if you may say at home, it’s against Spurs. A draw is a massive +425, but Spurs, +1 1/2 at -120. Stinch… no, Mark O’Haire, you go first because the total is at three, which you can see there’s going to be -130, but Spurs getting a goal and a half? Listen, some people will just have Spurs +650 or Spurs draw no bet.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’ll take Spurs with a goal and a half start. I know everything logic in terms of betting, in terms of data suggests Man City are obviously the stronger suit and deserve to be firm favorites for this match. But I just look at the matchup between the two coaches and I think Conte has enough about him to engineer something that resembles competitiveness at the Etihad this weekend. I’d be surprised if a Conte team went there and lost by two goals or more. They have been, basically outside of the big two, the best team in the Premier League since he’s arrived, not just in points, but in terms of xG process. Tottenham as you say, have got a decent record against City. Somehow they’ve burled four wins from the last five Premier League meetings. But there’s something in that and I think the way in which they went to the Etihad last year and just destroyed City on the counter attack, barely had to have possession half the time. It was just quick balls in behind and Guardiola didn’t have any answer for it.
He’s now lost three of his last five meetings with Conte across all competitions. Spurs have since been to Anfield when Liverpool were in sort of top gear towards the title run-in and picked up something there too. You look at the players available to them this weekend, they’ve now got Richarlison added into the mix as well. So I just think counter attacks and transitions here could really hurt City, particularly if current team news turns out to be true for Saturday. Stones and Walker missed out in midweek. They’re touch and go basically for the weekend. Laporte is still out, but without Walker, you’ve got a massive loss of kind of recovery pace. I know he’s limited in what he offers you with the ball, but defensively, it’s just that recovery pace which can be so critical against a team like Tottenham.
So you look at the proposed back four that City could field this weekend, it’s not the best, so I think Spurs can have some joy. I think Conte is smart enough to have studied what Newcastle did, more so even, what Aston Villa did against Man City and provide an effective game plan that revolves around counter attacking and hurting City in those transitions. We know deep down, as much as he’s had joy with Inter Milan, playing some fluid, good attacking football, he is a pragmatic coach by nature and he does relish playing the counter attack style. We’ve not seen Spurs hit their straps yet this season, but this might be their opportunity to play an effective game plan which can just offer something competitive. I don’t expect them to lose by two or more goals, so therefore the handicap, but the logical selection.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, Stinch, but this is the first game that we’re covering that actually both teams were in European action in the Champions League, both came through it quite comfortably in the end. But is this not like both teams to score and over because we know Spurs are going to score because they’re going to hit them on the break? We know that Man City are going to score, it’s just who gets that second one first.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I worry a little bit about what Spurs’ approach is going to be. I think there is the idea that they go there and they sit back and then they hit City on the counter as you mentioned. But sometimes I feel like, away at Chelsea for example, I feel like they were a little… Chelsea, we’ve seen, they’ve sacked their manager, probably due to poor performances and yet Spurs, I think were lucky to get a point out of that game [inaudible 00:24:17].
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Well, you say that, they were not very good first half, but second half, they bossed the game.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, but that’s what I mean, if they come out with a slow start here, they could be three goals down, so that’s my kind of concern. I understand the logic behind Mark’s bet for sure, especially with City’s defense absentees. But just in general, I think it’s always a little bit scary to be backing the opposition on a handicap against Man City. It’s kind of the numbers and all of that will make sense, but it’s not a game you’d enjoy watching where you’re just worried that you’re going to be defending for 90 minutes, kind of a game behind the sofa.
So that’s my only sort of reservation, especially the fact, I think I mentioned last week, that Spurs have been conceding a lot of chances as well, maybe not good chances, but they were conceding an average 15 shots per game. And when you compare that to City’s seven, Arsenal eight, Liverpool nine, just shows you that it’s not really conducive to being successful in terms of winning football matches or even avoiding defeat. And when you come up against an elite team like City who can finish difficult chances, then it can always be quite dangerous.
Having said that, Tottenham possess two of the best finishers in world football in Kane and Son, so it could be a goal fest, could be a basketball game. I remember a few seasons ago, Tottenham went there in the Champions League and it finished 4-3. Then they played three days later and City won 1-0. So I’m just not quite sure how Tottenham are going to approach it, so I’m just kind of leaving this one alone.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, Son to score at any time. I mean, whenever you watch this game, you’re picturing, Man City have the ball, they play around with it, Spurs have got good shape, then all of a sudden they press, they win the ball because remember at the moment, outside of maybe De Bruyne, obviously Bernardo Silva and Foden, if you get through that line and on a breakaway, their recovery is not good, Man City. I see Spurs scoring, I see Son being dangerous, but I had to leave the game alone because as you say, if Spurs come out and don’t put their front foot forward, then Man City are going to put them to the sword. But both teams to score and over, definitely, definitely looks a massive runner. Again, let’s have a little look at the official picks because we’ve got two absolutely top draw sides at the moment, with top draw players as well. Tottenham, +1 1/2 at -120. I suppose that’s a no brainer really, Mark O’Haire, because they’ve only lost two of their last seven meetings, Spurs.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, and it’s just kind of feeding into what you’re saying there, Flash. You’ve got players of sheer quality in forward areas and if you expect Spurs to score, City need to score three to see the bet lose. So the more often Spurs score, the harder it becomes for that handicap to lose, so I fully expect them to score at the Etihad.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, me too. I think that +650 might be worth a few shekels because I tell you what, Spurs are up there. Spurs, at this moment in time, maybe they won’t be right at the very top come the end of the season if something happens to one of their star players, but I tell you what, at the moment, pound for pound, they are really punching their way. Okay, let’s go onto game number four because there’s a couple of little conundrums that need to be worked out here. We’re going to East London, it’s West Ham versus Newcastle and again, look at these prices.
If you fancy one of the teams, you’re going to get paid handsomely, but it’s West Ham at +155, Newcastle at +190. That all of a sudden tells me, the prices are too big, so let’s look at the bottom and the draw is +235. Let’s have a little look, we’re going to go to you Mark O’Haire because over 2 1/2 goals at -110. Remember, West Ham are in Europa League action on the Thursday night, Newcastle going from strength to strength. Six and two threes, Mark O’Haire. I’m not splitting these two, but I’ll tell you what, I wouldn’t put anyone off of Newcastle at +190 and I wouldn’t put anyone off the draw at +235.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I found this a horrible game to try and analyze because the market is saying what it said pre-season really, that Newcastle are the better team and the most likely team to be finishing seventh, behind the big six. But they’re coming into this trip without Callum Wilson and we still don’t know the availability of Saint-Maximin or Guimarães as well, who missed out last weekend and I would want them to be involved if I want to be pro Newcastle here. They are a much tougher proposition to play against these days, Newcastle, but that trio especially, add the X factor really for Newcastle. And they haven’t performed hugely impressively away from home. I know they did very well at Anfield before losing, but they didn’t bring the house down in draws at Wolves and Brighton already this season.
West Ham do have European commitments, but I think domestically, they have started to show us a bit more of what they’re all about. Deserved something at Chelsea last weekend, put on a really good shift in the second half against Spurs. We know they’re capable, but again, just put off by defensive injuries really. Started last week with a back three featuring Emerson Palmieri and Thilo Kehrer, so that’s massively kind of alarm bells ringing really, if you want to back West Ham. So goals wise, again, just no interest really. These two are amongst the bottom four of the Premier League in terms of total goals per game so far this season. Just three of their combined 12 games have featured over 2 1/2 goals. And I guess low scoring games do tend to bring the likelihood of the draw into play, so perhaps that is the best solution here, is just to take the draw at a bigger price rather than sort of hang you hat on either team.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, there’s a couple of ways I want to look at this, Stinch, and the way that I did look at it was West Ham, home side, but Thursday night they are in European actions that we’re expecting. Maybe there could be excuses and a sluggish start. We’re also got to look at Newcastle going to Brighton and drawing 0-0, going to Wolves and drawing 1-1. They’re going to Brighton and keeping a clean sheet, the way Brighton are, you’ve got to give them credit. But I’m just wondering if these two are going to show each other a little bit too much credit and then people… every time we look at every game in the Premier League, it’s like both teams to score and over. I’m not so sure with this one because it’s -110 under 2 1/2 goals. Looks like a 0-0, 1-1.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, potentially. I think, especially with Newcastle’s injuries and as you mentioned, West Ham being in action in Europe, might be some tired legs. So if I was forced into a bet, I’d probably looking at unders and Mark rightfully pointed out that both teams are in the bottom four for goals scored. I think I’m just kind of waiting for West Ham to click and basically Newcastle to get their first choice XI back, essentially. But you look at their prices here, I definitely don’t think Newcastle are fairly priced here at +190. I think West Ham are equally as good as Newcastle, if not better and they proved that the last couple of seasons in the Premier League. And also, I quite like the fact they’ve now got Scamacca and Max Cornet, so they can rotate Antonio a little bit more. So it means that I think they will be able to play fresh players in the frontline at the weekend.
I’m just a bit concerned with their form and performances going back even towards the back end of last season. I know back end of last season, you can kind of caveat at it with the fact they were in a European semifinal and obviously, they had some tough games, so they were rightfully prioritizing. They just got off to a bit of a sluggish start of the season, so I’m just kind of waiting for them to click a little bit more before trying to side with them because I once sided with them away at Villa a couple weeks ago, I know they won 1-0 but they didn’t play that well. But I thought the price was too big and again, I think the price is a bit too big here. But I just want to see a little bit more from West Ham and maybe just give them a few games for these new signings to bed in a little bit as well.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Mark O’Haire, draw half-time looks like it’s on the cards, but then do we see a draw after 90 minutes? Because again, when you see that under 2 1/2 goals is at -110, it tells you it’s a flip of a coin. If it’s a flip of a coin, then the big price is on the draw.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’d prefer just to take the draw at 90 minutes rather than any sort of half-time angle, purely because I think they’re all sort of talking about the issues that Newcastle might have in the final third with those players missing and the fact that West Ham might be sluggish. We like the pool, I think we all like the unders and if you like the unders, then surely the draw is a more value play there because if it’s going to be an under 2 1/2 game, then obviously 0-0 and 1-1 come into play. So 235 on the draw would be my selection if I had to, but happy to skip this myself.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, and this is another one we’ve got to make everyone aware of, this is the first weekend of fixtures that you’re on the back of European campaigns. I know that some of these have had Conference games, but listen, Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck could have played right back and left back against some of them teams. In earnest now, it’s the group stages of both European competitions. There’s traveling involved for some, not for others, there’s rest for others, so just make sure that you do your homework and look for slow starts for them sides that are in Europe. Official picks, I think I’m on my own here, but again, I’ve gone with value. I think it’s going to be a bit of a dull weekend or I don’t think there’s many teams that are going to pick up three points, let’s say it that way.
Draw, +235. All the others are around 255, but this game does look like maybe 0-0 or 1-1. Okay, let’s go onto game number five because this is the game where I was really wanting to get my teeth into. Off the South London, Crystal Palace, +245, my eyes were like saucers. Man United at +115 and on the back of them being involved in Europe and by the way, they have got away with a few iffy performances when they’re 1-0 up, inviting the opposition on. Palace to score twice is at +180. Man United to score twice is at +100. I don’t see Man United scoring twice, so if you wanted a little bit of value, maybe the -130, it’s over 2 1/2 with the over at -125. Let’s go with you, Mark O’Haire. Palace-Man United, I was so close to going Palace, +245 or Palace draw no bet, around the 145.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’d rather be on the Palace train than United. They’ve had a tough start to the season. They’ve already played three of the big six already and I think they can be relatively pleased with their performances so far. Defensively, they haven’t been as strong or solid as last season, but I think last weekend against Newcastle, we saw a marked improvement really in Andersen and Guéhi at the center half, were very, very strong and do provide a real platform for the rest of the team to work from. And I think that is important when Palace play. They need to have that strong foundations because there’s plenty of players with flare, invention in that midfield and going forward, that can create.
So if Palace can keep things tight, then absolutely, they’ve got an opportunity here because I think United are still a work in progress, I said at the start and I think Palace have proved, under Patrick Vieira, that they can be competitive against the big guns. They can be difficult to beat, particularly at Selhurst Park where they’ve lost just five Premier League games since he began his reign at the start of last season. Only two of those defeats were by two goals or more, which was Liverpool when they were going through a great run and Arsenal on the opening day of the season, when I think the scoreline was a little bit harsh really, on Palace. In fact last season, if you looked at their record against the top teams, they turned over Arsenal, Spurs and United at Selhurst and they held City, lost narrowly to Chelsea. So yes, I think they can be competitive and immediately, the half goal start was interesting. As you say, the draw no bet then comes into play as well.
United have improved, but just remarkable that they’re only three points off the top of the table considering what we’ve seen so far this season. I know the wins against Liverpool and Arsenal, you could say they… I wouldn’t say they completely deserved the points against Arsenal, but they played much more improved on what we’ve seen. But against Leicester, they didn’t offer a huge amount after taking the lead and I think away at Southampton as well, there was question marks over the final result in terms of whether they were deserving of it too. So they’re looking more secure, they’re looking a lot more solid since the personnel changes, but I still think that evolution has got a bit of a distance to run. So I’m quite happy to swerve this one just because I’m still not sure where they’re at in terms of their development. Respect Palace obviously, would rather be their side. If I had to have a play on this one, I’d be going down Stinch’s cards route [inaudible 00:37:00] United, which I’m sure he’ll probably elaborate on if he’s thinking that way again this weekend.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, my big problem with Man United is they get that 1-0 against Southampton, they went 1-0 up, then they sat back and it could easily have ended 1-1. They went 1-0 up against Leicester and I’ll tell you what, some of the players downed tools. They were not interested in being positive, going forward, just invite pressure. You invite pressure here at Palace, they will find a way. Stinch, I couldn’t split these two sides and I want to be with Palace really, but the way that Man United just get 28 men behind the ball, they’re so negative, I just don’t… the draw is too big at +255, 0-0, 1-1 and the unders comes in at +105.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think it’s quite good that we’re all kind of seeing through United’s results essentially. It’s four wins in a row, but they’re not playing in a style that leads itself to winning those matches long term for sure. I mean, I think what ten Hag has quickly realized is he can’t implement the plan that he immediately wants to because he started off against Brighton and Brentford playing with a more open style and they were picked off rather easily. So I think he’s gone back to basics really and realized that he needs to… rather than going from A to Z, he’s having to go through all the alphabet, eventually to get to his final plan. And as I mentioned at the beginning of the show, it’s going to be quite concerning to see what happens when they do go a goal behind because I don’t believe they know how to figure it out. At the moment, they’re just kind of… yeah, I think they’re muddling their way through it.
They’re getting a goal, often on the counter attack and then they’re sitting back and soaking up pressure and so far, the pressure being applied by the opposition hasn’t really been that fantastic. They haven’t really had to exert themselves too much, United. So if we look back past the two away games previously, they’d lost six in a row away from home and they’d been behind at half-time in all of those, which is +450 on this occasion. So I would like to be with Palace, as you mentioned. I’m just holding back a little bit for a few more games. I just want to see how the numbers stack up post Conor Gallagher essentially, because I felt he was a huge, huge part of their success last season. I think it’s really good to see how well Wilfried Zaha is doing in terms of his goal output. I think we all know he is a very good player, but his numbers haven’t always been that great, but his goals have increased since the start of the year really.
And Mark touched on it, I think my best bet if I had to take a bet in this game would be the United cards. The line is set at 2 1/2, +150 which I’d rather go +150 and take like -130 or something like that. So I don’t really want back it at 2.5, but United have accrued the most cards in the division, 20, that’s over three a game. So if they do take the lead, it’s highly likely the pressure that Palace exert and the fact that Palace are the top three in terms of fouls received, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see United pick up some bookings. Away at Leicester, three of the back four were cared after they took the lead and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar when you have the likes of Dalot, Martínez and Malacia who… they do like to leave their foot in and take the foul and regroup.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
There’s so much talent in this Crystal Palace side. I mean, we’ve not even mentioned as Eze. We’ve got big, strong defenders and athletes as well. Their wide men in Ayew or Zaha who are fleet of foot. Yeah, I mean Dalot, he loves a yellow. Before he even gets on the pitch, he’s already giving the ref his name. +300, I’d see this being like a really… under 2 1/2 at +105 I think is a real runner because you’ve got a Man United side, if they go 1-0 up, it’s like, “Just batten down the hatches, close the drawbridge or bring up the drawbridge and we will just have a siege mentality.” And then I see Palace coming back underneath… in front of their home crowd, there’s too much. But again, I’m looking at a draw here at +255. I don’t see Palace getting beat, but if Palace win, I will be kicking myself because I think that +245 is far too big.
And Man United, 1-0, 1-0 away at Southampton and away at Leicester. Leicester? Everyone is putting fours and fives past Leicester and Man United should’ve done, but they weren’t bothered. That’s my problem with them. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I’m on me own again. I’ve gone with four selections this week in the Premier League and all four draws, so I need two to make sure I make good money. And it’s +255 and I do like the under at +105. Got this game, 0-0, 1-1, so the +105 on the unders. Okay, the Q&A will be coming up. We have got no prop of the week last week. Basically, we’ve done a little Man United. We got a winner, so then we ran away for a bit, so maybe next week it’ll be right. But before we do the Q&A, so you get typing, I’d like to remind you, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 7,000. Then we’ll go on to 10,000 bit prior or during the World Cup maybe, because we’ve got that coming up in under three months time.
Also, I’d like you to ring the bell ring. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you, you’ll never miss any content again. And if you’re on social media, then please follow @BetUSTV. NFL week one this week. Got plenty content over at BetUS TV. Also, we’ve got NCAAF which is the college football and if you press a link in description, that’ll take you to the shirt contest. We had our first four winners. I’ve sent an email to them yesterday. Waiting on their sizes, on their selections and then they’ll send pictures. Maybe we’ll put them up on one of the shows. Okay, let’s have a little look. Harry Docker, he says, “Chelsea?” I think we’ve got to leave Chelsea alone, aren’t we Stinch?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I did have Chelsea earmarked at -120. You consider the fact they went away to Everton open day of the season, I think they were -200. Very short price and it’s not as if they’ve got bad players. It’s just I was slightly concerned that there may be something underneath the surface going on there and don’t quite know whether Potter will be in charge in time for Saturday. But I think if he is there, then that makes sense. Fulham are second for expected goals against conceded, so they’ve given up a lot of chances essentially. And I don’t feel as though this match is priced based on a top four candidate against a relegation candidate. I think Chelsea should be shorter in normal circumstances.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, I nearly went with a parlay, Mark O’Haire, but then I started thinking I’m having too many bets and my banker this week, on paper, was either Arsenal, -1 or Leeds, moneylines. Leeds keep going forward, they keep creating, they keep scoring, but they can’t keep the backdoor shut. I see them being far too strong.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I find Leeds a bit too erratic to back at the prices against Forest. Should be quite an open and exciting game, but of those two, I’d much rather take Arsenal. I think I’ve sort of eulogized enough about Arsenal’s record when they host bottom half teams and when they’re rated as strong odds, are favorites at the Emirates. They tend to be very consistent and tend to do the business. And they’re playing an Everton team who have stiffened up defensively and are quite stubborn in what they offer these days under Frank Lampard. I think the additions of Coady and Tarkowski and Onana have made that spine a lot stronger, but they have been quite fortunate too.
They’ve given up 10.3 expected goals so far and conceded just six goals and Pickford’s save percentage is the second highest in the division. Man of the match last weekend in the derby and we know that going forward, they don’t offer a huge amount. So Anthony Gordon, who in fairness, has been having plenty of efforts on target, but outside of that, you’ve got Neal Maupay who… just say the leads are erratic or Maupay’s finishing certainly is and there’s not a huge amount of invention outside of that. So only slight concern with Thomas Partey being missing, but as I say, Arsenal tended to get the job done when hosting teams of Everton’s caliber, so I’d rather them. I think they’re a bit more trustworthy than probably Leeds.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Okay. We have one more before we go to the best bets. Mitch is saying, “Got a corner about this week, Stinch?” Who’s your fancy on the corners? Is there a game that stands out?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Maybe Liverpool again, because we know they’re struggling a little bit in terms of scoring goals and Wolves probably will go there and park the bus. We’re not sure whether Diego Costa… probably, I’m not sure if he’ll be signed, but I wouldn’t have thought he’d start. And Kalajdžić is out injured. I’m not sure on Raúl Jiménez’s availability, but I expect Wolves to go there and [inaudible 00:45:58].
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
But both teams to score? No, Mark O’Haire?
Mark O’Haire:
In which game, Liverpool?
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Yeah, Liverpool-Wolves.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I mean Wolves matches, you normally go unders and BTTS, no, don’t you? But the way in which Liverpool defended midweek is quite alarming, isn’t it, with Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold quite rightly vilified for their efforts. So I think Wolves can be competitive there, but it’s a game I’m quite happy to leave alone just because Liverpool have not… bar midweek, Liverpool haven’t been a million miles away from it in what they provided in the final third. They’ve been leading the way for a lot of sort of the leading stats in terms of shots, expected goals and efforts from inside the penalty area in the Premier League this season. They’re very much up there in terms of expected points. Things just haven’t fallen their way and they’ve given away some soft goals too.
But I think Wolves will improve going forward. I’ve liked a lot of their signings this summer, I’ve changed my opinion on how they’ll do this term, but still wonder where those goals are going to come from. So potentially, but I just think the way in which Liverpool are defending at the minute, I just wouldn’t want to have to watch them try and keep Wolves out.
Gordon “Flash” Watson:
Okay. Less than 25% of you have put thumbs up. Many, many, many are watching. We really appreciate that. That must mean that you’re enjoying the show, but on your way out, please make sure that you do put your thumbs up, show a bit appreciation for Mark O’Haire and for Stinch. Let’s have a little look at the best bets. Okay, so Mark O’Haire has gone with Leicester-Villa, over 2 1/2 goals and both teams to score at +110. Stinch has just gone over 2 1/2 at -120. Stinch has gone over 2 1/2 at Southampton-Brentford at -125. Mark O’Haire has gone Southampton-Brentford over 2 1/2 at both teams to score at +105. Well then, I got 2-2 in both of them games. So Leicester-Villa, draw at +245. Southampton-Brentford, 2-2 draw at +255 and then I’ve gone draw, West Ham-Newcastle because I cannot split them and West Ham are obviously in Europa League action on Thursday night and Newcastle have injuries.
Palace-Man United, I’ve gone draw, +255 and the other one is Spurs to not lose by more than one goal, so it’s Spurs +1.5 at -120. From everybody at BetUS, have a great weekend. Remember, we’ve got Serie A coming up, we’ve got LaLiga coming up, Bundesliga tomorrow and we’ve also got the US Open show on Saturday morning, 11:00 Eastern time, where we’ll cover the women’s final, which I think kicks off at 4:00 PM Eastern on Saturday and the men’s final on Sunday. And that will be with Snize and with Noops, so please, thumbs up on the way out. Really appreciate everyone contributing. Mark O’Haire, good luck this weekend. Stinch, good luck. Keep up the great form gentlemen. I’ll try and [inaudible 00:48:58] a couple of winners and join you in the positive table. From everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners. You take care.
