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Premier League Picks Midweek Card | Premier League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

Hey, welcome to the BetUS Soccer channel, I’m Flash, and this is a midweek card Premier League Show of all the missed games throughout the season or some of the missed games, but now we have got six games and we’re going to go through them all. So make sure that if you’re in the chat, your Q&A is as we go along. Obviously we’ll have a little look at the Q&A as well, prior to the best bets. There’ll be no records because obviously we’ve just finished the match weekend. And we’ve obviously going to have to go through Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday games, and then we start again. So if you’re going to watch this program, again on Thursday, don’t be asking me about the Thursday night game, because it’s going to be on this show. Now we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d invite you to subscribe. We need 50 more, 50 big bullseye just to get to 5,000 subscribers.

Flash:

Also, I’d like to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And also we’ll notify you if there’s a change in schedule, change in time like there is today. And I’d like you to follow @betussoccer if you’re on Twitter, because there’ll be late updates, late additions, maybe some guidelines. Or maybe just to say, “Listen, we don’t really fancy this,” or the lineup’s too lopsided we’ve got to get on. So make sure that you’ve got every channel open to you because it will be beneficial.

Flash:

I’ve got award-winning owner in Mark O’Haire, and European odds compiler in Mark Stinchcombe. Mark O’Haire, Man City. There was never any doubt that they were going to put their pedal to the metal and then they ended up scoring five.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean, probably never any doubt after they got the first goal, but before then, Newcastle did threaten and have their moments in the name of that Chris Wood header. Probably and he should have done better than that, or at least left it to his teammate who was arguably in a better position, and goals change games. And I think maybe the result on the Saturday with Liverpool being held by Spurs probably did give City the lift that they might have needed after what happened last midweek in the Champions League, just to get them to get the go-ahead again. Clearly they would’ve been hurting from that, but you see the sort of resting and rotation Pep Guardiola employed ahead of the weekend. So much quality in forward areas, it’s very, very difficult for opposing teams to keep them out.

Mark O’Haire:

And I think once that first goal goes in, they loosen up. And so their opponents and obviously two late goals puts a bit of gloss on the score line, but yeah, it can be very difficult now for Liverpool to reel them back in. I can see City probably winning the last three games and winning the title now, but now it’s not exactly a groundbreaking comment there. But yeah, I mean, City were good. I didn’t think they were fantastic at the weekend, but they didn’t need to be.

Flash:

Yeah, they were just ruthlessly efficient. Once they got that first goal, it was game over. Stinch, obviously we want to talk about Liverpool-Spurs, but the big one for me over the weekend was the Man United lineup of having Matic, McTominay and Mata. The three of them, they played again. I cannot believe it. We did warn you on the show that we fancied Brighton and we fancied there’d be goals, but 4-0, that’s embarrassing.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Have you thrown your hat into the ring for the Man United job yet, Flash?

Flash:

No mate, who would want that? I’m happy where I am, thank you.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Okay, okay. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Yeah, I mean, you’re absolutely right. It’s this Man United team seems to go from one extreme to another and it’s almost impossible to predict. United odds were larger than they should have been, so I didn’t really want to get involved with Brighton, but obviously Brighton rocked up and comfortably won 4-0. I think we can just write off Man United now, can’t we for the season? They’ve got one game left, not playing for anything, so we’ll just focus on the matches that matter and the games where maybe we can find a bit more of an edge, because yeah, I find it very, very difficult to know exactly what you’re going to get from this Man United side.

Mark Stinchcombe:

You see Brentford bounce back from their defeat at Old Trafford and won comfortably 3-0 against Southampton team. Actually some of the fans were calling for Hasenhüttl’s head, I think. I don’t think it was the Brentford fans, I think it was the away fans. Which I know Mark’s a big fan of Hasenhüttl, so arguably it’s a bit harsh. To be fair though, we were looking at them potentially as relegation candidates.

Flash:

It’s funny you say that Stinch. Have you actually had a look at the league? A couple of results that wouldn’t have gone their way, they’d be right in the mire.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Uh-huh, but we were happy that they were safe sort of mid-February after they’d been to Spurs and played excellently. And obviously they’ve been to City and picked up 0-0 as well and not many teams keep clean sheets against City, do they? So yeah, I think that’s just what happens a lot of time with teams. They sort of mentally switch off once they have achieved that sort of safety, that magic 40 point mark. I mean, Villa seemed to have dropped like a stone. I know they won at Burnley, but before that they had lost like four games in a row. So yeah, it’s just the way football works. You’ll know better than anyone, the mentality of some of these players when they can see the bright lights of the beaches and the summer holidays after nine months of grass. They’re happy to switch off for the last few games when there’s nothing riding on them.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So yeah, it’s up to us to try and pick through the bones, and try and find these edges that we can take advantage of. Because these things, these sort of, not mentality, motivation and where the teams are on the beach, they’re so hard to quantify. So we’ve got to try and work our way through the mud I would say, to find some sort of clear picture of exactly, not necessarily what’s going to happen, but what is a good odd, better chance of something happening at these odds than what we would have as a percentage.

Flash:

Yeah. The key word for this show is creativity. I think we’ve got to get creative. And secondly, make sure you press your thumbs up, show a bit of appreciation for Mark O’Haire and Mark Stinchcombe. Now, let’s kick off. Remember we’ve got all six games. There might not be picks in these six games, but if there is then we’ll show them, if there’s not, then we’ll say why. Let’s kick straight off with the first game, because I know that we have picks in this game, it’s Villa versus Liverpool. Villa are at +600, Liverpool -220. Liverpool -1 at -140. Liverpool team total, they score three goals is +160. Mark O’Haire tempted by Liverpool to score three.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, interesting. I obviously want to be with Liverpool in some way or form. I couldn’t find an angle in that. I really wanted to hang my hats on, so maybe you guys have got something up your sleeves to persuade me in. But just on Aston Villa, I think I made my feelings quite clear ahead of the game against Burnley. And just because they won that match, I’m not going to revise those feelings. I still think they’re a team in transition really, and I’m not sure if they even know what best system or best side they can pick. And Steven Gerrard came out of the game after Burnley and said Villa were better in every department, and that’s just not true. Burnley had more shots, created more chances, had a larger share of the expected goals.

Mark O’Haire:

Villa were clinical, took their opportunities. I thought it was quite interesting that Coutinho started on the bench. And for the first time Buendia started without him, Buendia got another match, a goal and an assist. And it’d be quite interesting now to see what Steven Gerrard does with his team. He said Coutinho was being rested ahead of a busy period, but I think the most obvious solution Villa are going to do here is try and revert to something we’ve seen quite recently in what Spurs, Everton and Villarreal have tried to do against Liverpool, which is sit deep, block the passages and play on the counter attack.

Mark O’Haire:

I think Villa have the players who can do that, but whether that includes Buendia and/or Coutinho, I’m not sure. But if I was Gerrard, I’d be filling the midfield with energy, legs and physicality really. But if you go back to, I think it might be in his first game or one of his first games, Villa did host Man City and gave them a really good game for about an hour, or at least the first 45 minutes and succumbed really. And I just think it’s very difficult though to resist these two teams at the top end of the table, if you are getting very little of the ball and being dominated territory-wise. So I think we all three of us have doubts still over Villa’s defense individually to stand strong.

Mark O’Haire:

So yeah, Liverpool obviously will want to bounce back after the weekend. They’ve got the best squad in the country and I think they’ve got the options to rest and rotate when required. And they are a real force to be reckoned with. So as I said, I think Liverpool win this match. How comfortable or not, I’m not too sure. I looked at the prices and I looked at the -1, I looked at alternatives, and nothing really kind of grabbed me here, so I’ll hand it over to you guys and see what you’ve got up your sleeves.

Flash:

Stinch, I was so close to just going Liverpool team total over 2.5, especially with the goal difference. Because if Man City slip up and Liverpool get their win, then it may well come down to it, so they’ve got to keep their foot down. Now there will be others that say Liverpool play Chelsea in the FA Cup final later on in the week, but I can’t believe that they’re going to have an eye on that because it’s not over. How creative have you got, and do you see Liverpool winning the game?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, that’s a very good point you make about the goal difference. Just looking here, Liverpool four goals worse than Man City with only three games to go. I don’t think it’s a big number to overcome because it needs Man City to lose obviously to catch them to start with.

Flash:

But they’ve got a couple of tricky games, Mark. If they’re not on it, if Man City are not on it, they’ve got a couple of tricky games. I think their big tricky game is going to be West Ham.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. It’s Wolves away, then West Ham away, then Aston Villa at home. Now I’ll speak about Villa in a second, but I think Wolves and West Ham away is not as easy as the odds suggests. Both of them have given Man City trouble in the past. Wolves have won home and away against City albeit Adama Traore was the star of the show on those occasions. But they still have the other players to defensively keep Man City at arm’s length. And West Ham have had a fantastic season, and I thought maybe they might be a bit down after the Europa League exit, but they rocked up Norwich and scored four. They’ve already knocked Man City out of the League Cup at home this season. They beat Liverpool at home this season. They’ve beaten Chelsea at home this season. So I think they’ll definitely give them a good game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I can actually see potentially City drawing, maybe both those games. And then if Liverpool were to win all their three, then Liverpool would pip City by one point. So yeah, there is a little bit of ifs and buts about the team total and that sort of thing, and one eye on the cup game. I think that first and foremost Liverpool try and make sure they get the three points secured and then go from there. Aston Villa’s record under Gerrard, I’m quite surprised really because, I’m not saying this because I’m a Liverpool fan, but I’ve mentioned it before like I do think he’s a very good manager and you have to look at the job he’d done at Rangers and then see that van Bronckhorst has continued on that good work as well and arguably improved them.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean, what an achievement to make the Europa League final without like Kemar Roofe and Alfredo Morelos and knock out two of the three top teams in Germany is just fantastic. So I’m very surprised to see Villa’s record under Gerrard is won 10, drawn three, lost 11. So he’s lost more than he’s won, and that really surprised me. And his matches against the top eight makes a really, really bad reading. He’s played eight games, won zero, drawn one and lost seven. So I think it’s going to be, as Mark’s already kind of mentioned, I think the match is going to be very similar to some of the games Liverpool played recently against like Spurs, Villarreal, Everton where Villa just sit back, try and soak up and hit Liverpool on a counter attack.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean, when they played the reverse fixture at Anfield in December, Liverpool had 62% possession and had 20 shots to Villa’s four in a 1-0 victory, which was quite scrappy really in the end, Mo Salah penalty was the difference. So yeah, I mean, you don’t really want to probably back Liverpool at the odds, but yeah, motivation is obviously a lot higher so that would probably suggest one of the reasons why they’re at -220. So I try to find a way to make that 220 pay essentially, but now I’m slightly concerned. I mean you mentioned the goal difference, but I still think the fixture congestion and there’s a long way to go really in the season. I mean we saw Wednesday night in the Champions League semi-final, we thought the tie was done and dusted, like Man City led for 90 what, 95%, 96% of the two-legged tie, then Real Madrid sucker-punched in the last second.

Flash:

Do you speak for yourself, son? Do you speak for yourself?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I think football is a fantastic sport because it is such a low scoring sport, one goal just massively changes things. So I settled on Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals because it’s -140, so just a way to boost up that -220. You could be a bit greedier and go for the under 3.5 goals, but I think there’s always a chance that Liverpool can rack up three or four goals score line. And obviously we know they are quite good defensively. They’ve won 21 of 25 matches this season in the Premier League with under 4.5 goals. And the games that went over was against Leeds, Watford, Everton and United, and therefore of the worst six defenses in the League and Villa don’t quite fall into that bracket.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean they only conceded 17 goals in the eight games they’ve played against the top eight. So it’s around about two a game, so that gives you an idea of basically how those games play out. They do just sit back, hope to try and nick something, but they’re not creating very much the opposite way. So eventually it’s just a case of when rather than if the stronger team takes the lead. So yeah, that’s the one I’ve settled on, but I do think you raise a very good point regarding the goal difference.

Flash:

I’ve got the game being 3-0, 3-1 at minimum. I don’t know, under 4.5 you still get paid. Okay. The big problem I have with Villa is their resistance when Liverpool go ahead. I don’t think that they’re good enough to be able to handle Liverpool’s movement, and especially in 1v1 situations. And normally you say 1v1, you think of fallbacks and wingers with the ball. That’s not what I’m thinking. I’m thinking that the striker is coming into holes, dragging people towards the ball, leaving spaces in important pockets, in box. I think Liverpool are far too intelligent.

Flash:

And then you throw in the conspiracy theory of Liverpool’s favorite son putting up a performance against Liverpool when Liverpool need the points. I know he is a professional, but Villa are just not good enough for me. I wouldn’t go obviously with Liverpool win to nil because I think Villa have got the ammunition to maybe score out of nothing, but I certainly see Liverpool scoring three here. But I have steered clear away from the +160 and gone with Liverpool and over 2.5. It just brings in the straight 2-1, as you say, just to win the game, but it’s at -105. -105 at Liverpool and over 2.5, which I think is definitely the way to go. So it’s Liverpool and over 2.5 at -105. Close to being a banker.

Flash:

Also I’m thinking of putting Liverpool just to win the game at minus -220, and a parlay, Liverpool and under 4.5 at -140. The only problem you’ve got with that is if Villa do lay down and Liverpool go and replicate what Man City did at the weekend and score five. So just keep an eye on the +160 of Liverpool to score three goals. Let’s move on to game number two. It’s Leeds who are now scrapping for their lives because they’re in the bottom three hosting FA Cup finalists, Chelsea. It’s Leeds at +375, Chelsea at -150. It’s under or over three goals, and Chelsea at -160 to score twice. Mark O’Haire. I’ll come to you first because Stinch obviously talked the hind legs off a donkey in the last clip, so you’ve been waiting for like three hours. So the draw at +325, Leeds +1 at -130, or do Chelsea go there -1 at +110? I think that’s a free hit to be honest because Chelsea cannot afford to drop points.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I agree. I think Chelsea are the bet here. Leeds, where do they go from here really after what they showed at the weekend on Sunday? The first 10, 15 minutes at Arsenal was pretty abysmal really for a team supposedly fighting relegation to concede those two goals, and then get a player sent off. I know they fought back and made a bit of a game of it in the second half, but even still, if we had talked about their lack of available players in key positions last week, well things have got worse now because Luke Ayling is now suspended, and just another vital member of that defense really. And we talked about Stuart Dallas’ influence and his versatility, and Luke Ayling is very similar because he can fill in a center half or right back.

Mark O’Haire:

And he’s now missing. Hoping to have Liam Cooper back, but sounds like it’s going to be a bit of a gamble if he does play. And then you got Meslier, the goalkeeper who for the most part has been relatively consistent between the sticks, he’s quite young, but you could see his confidence crumble after that mistake and the realization of what he’s done. So the only real positive I have for Leeds coming into this game is it’s taking place at Elland Road where the support was really, really good against Man City. And I thought they played pretty well against Man City despite the final score. But ultimately, they’re missing now more players, more key players. And their record against the top six is dreadful, 11 defeats from 11, they’ve considered over 40 goals in those matches. Five of the big six have already been to Elland Road this season and scored at least three goals.

Mark O’Haire:

They’re averaging over three expected goals per game against the big six and conceding almost 14 shots in the box on average as well. So it’s very difficult to see them holding this Chelsea team out. And Chelsea have been rightfully criticized for their recent run and performances, and they’ve put their top four position in a bit of jeopardy. They obviously have the FA Cup to look forward to this weekend, which may take an element of distraction, but I just think they can’t afford to do that really after coughing a 2-0 lead against Wolves. And Thomas Tuchel was furious post-match, and almost started pointing the finger at his senior players for straying away from the game plan. So the only thing about Chelsea though, I’ve noticed their Stamford Bridge performances have been so mediocre, whereas away from home, they tend to turn up and put on a decent show.

Mark O’Haire:

And that includes going to Real Madrid. I know it’s the Champions League and of course you’re going to try and impress, but it’s not long ago they went to Southampton and battered them 6-0. So this season, 18 away games, they’ve won 11 of those. If you look at their record away at teams in 10th and below, nine wins from 10, conceding just four goals as well. Yeah, I like Chelsea here. I think we’ll see an element of resting and rotation as we saw at the weekend, but for the most part of that match in Wolves they were in complete control and should have probably put the game to bed. So I just think Leeds, this is the kind of environment where you’re just happy to oppose Leeds. When you’re playing a big team, they’re erratic, they’re loose, and I think Chelsea will make them pay.

Flash:

I’ve got to agree. I think that Chelsea are going to have far too much for Leeds. And the big thing with Leeds though, Stinch, is it’s desperate stakes. Who would’ve thought that they were going to be in the bottom three, maybe just even three weeks ago? And that Chelsea movement, that Chelsea power against a Leeds side that are not going to be at full strength. I mean, Chelsea -1 at +110, surely that’s just a gift. Chelsea win this game. Because listen, if they drop points in this game, and Spurs, we’re going to talk about Spurs and Arsenal, the North London Derby, and Spurs win, we’ve got two games to go and no one knows who’s going to finish third, fourth or fifth.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I agree. My issue with Chelsea is some of their results over the last, probably since all of the whole invasion of Ukraine from Russia have just been very, very impossible to predict. Like you wouldn’t have said, “Oh, Brentford are going to go to Chelsea and win 4-1.” I was very happy to bet Chelsea at home to Arsenal. Arsenal rock up without a striker. Well okay, Nketiah played but he hasn’t played all season. It went 4-2. Went to Everton, lost to Everton for the first half, then gave away a sloppy goal and lost 1-0. And then the game on Saturday to just round it off, they were 2-0 up against Wolves, a Wolves team that have barely scored in the last month and a half and allowed them to score two late goals is criminal really. So yeah, I think this Chelsea results have just been so volatile, it’s impossible for me to be confident with them.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Having said that, they are playing the perfect team if you want to bat them to win a football match, because Leeds, when they play a top team, essentially it’s not like they’ve left the house, they’ve gone out of the house for the day and they’ve just left everything unlocked and just said, “Yeah, come and burgle us. Just take everything you want. We’re not going to do anything to stop you.” They just concede tons and tons of chances, and there’s no surprise that they concede tons and tons of goals. They’ve got the worst defense in the league. Oh, sorry. They did have the worst defense in the league until Norwich shipped four, but Norwich, we would say are a level below Leeds. And Leeds are almost on the cusp of being as bad as them defensively.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But when you look at Leeds when they play the top seven, it’s just embarrassing, and that’s including the last season as well. In those 16 games against the top seven, there’s been 81 goals in those matches. That’s over five a game. And when you are losing the game, you’re not losing them by one or two, they’re losing them by three or four. I just think it’s absolutely shocking. So yeah, I want to get Chelsea on side, but I’m too scared if you like, to take a shorter price because as I said, some of these Chelsea results have massively put me off.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So I thought, “How can I basically get a bigger price so I can be happier with my bet selection process if you like?” And yeah, just based on the fact that Leeds ship goals for fun and having looked at Chelsea’s wins, they’ve won 12 games in the Premier League this season where they’ve scored three or more goals. So I thought, “So Chelsea to win and them to score at least three goals sounds quite good to me.” You can get Chelsea to win and over 3.5 goals at +300. And I think that’s a huge boost from the -150. And something I’m very, very happy to take, when Leeds leave the back door open, tons of players missing, especially defensively, and as I said their games are averaging over five and I’m after four goals here. And I think there’ll be a lot of Chelsea players that want to start that cup final on Saturday, and Romelo Lukaku who score two at the weekend, if he gets picked again, he’ll be looking to put his name, maybe not just in the FA Cup team sheet, but also back in the shop window.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Because I don’t think he’s very happy sat on the bench at Stanford bridge. And we’ve seen Chelsea go to Southampton and rock up and score six. So I think there’s every chance they go to Leeds and score at least three or four. They beat Leeds 3-2 at home in December, they won 3-1 last season as well, so yeah, I think there’s every confidence that if everything does click, I think Chelsea could absolutely wipe the floor with Leeds there. I think it really should be damage limitation from Leeds, but they’re not even going to play in that style, they’re literally just going to go out there and it’s almost like a basketball game, but they might not even contribute, and they’re basically just saying, “How many do you want to beat us by?” And yeah, honestly it could be five or six.

Flash:

Okay. The other thing I’d like to put a little bit more meat on the bone is Chelsea dropped points Everton away, but most of their points as Mark O’Haire says, was drop points against Wolves, against Everton, against Arsenal. Now that gives me even more reason to be with Chelsea because if they’d have got points in them games, they wouldn’t need points now against the Leeds side that are absolutely crumbling. So I’m not complicating it. I think Chelsea win the game, you’re getting plus money for them to basically win by two goals. I agree with you, it could be 4-0, 4-1. I wouldn’t go against the nil because Leeds have got that individual flare, whether from a set piece or Chelsea can switch off. But yeah, I’m with Chelsea as well.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s Chelsea -1 at +110 for two of us, and Chelsea and over 3.5 at +300. Yep, I can see that happening as well because listen, it’s not just Chelsea scoring four, it could be Chelsea winning this game 3-1, and we’re all winners. I really like this game. And also I saw in the chat that if you have Chelsea money line and Liverpool money line, it’s around +145. So there’s another option for you there as well. Let’s move on to game number three. And I can tell you, let me just have a little look, it’s Leicester versus Norwich. There’s no official pick, so if you want to get a cup of tea, now’s the time to do it.

Flash:

Leicester at -225, Leicester -1 at -140. Norwich at +575. It’s under or over three. If it was over or under 2.5, I still wouldn’t want to be interested because the over three is at +105. Stinch, as you was a little bit quicker last time, take us through why you’re not getting involved in this game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Dead rubber. Neither team’s got nothing to play for. I think Norwich are just petering out in an abysmal fashion. There was some protests regarding the ownership and business model at the game on Sunday, which I think is incredibly harsh because the reason that they have managed to get themselves back into the Premier League a couple of times in recent years is because of said ownership and business model, not overstretching themselves financially. They’re not a Fulham that have got tons and tons of money in reserve to be able to spend lavishly, and if it goes wrong, be able to wipe off those debts basically.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And then a Leicester side that have just been, all their eggs have been in Europe, haven’t they? And I think they’re probably licking their wounds after the exit. And the goal line set at three. If it was at 2.5, it would be like, “Yeah, I’m quite happy to try and back over 2.5, try and find a winner.” But I’m not even sure Norwich contribute to the score line. They’ve scored just 22 goals in 35 games this season. The record in the Premier League is 20, so that just shows you how bad they’ve been. I mean, you wouldn’t want to bat Leicester either because I’m not sure how motivated they are for the match. So yeah, just one for me to massively leave alone.

Flash:

Mark O’Haire, +575 for Norwich, Norwich +1 at +120. Means even if they get beat… Can you see this being like a dodgy 2-2 or 1-1, and you get Norwich +1, which means even if they get beat, you’re going to get your money back if they lose by the one goal, but it’s basically better than a double chance at +120 against… I can’t get this Leicester side right, don’t want to, but would you put any one off of the +575 or the +120?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I would, yeah. I’d say don’t take this game at all. No. I wouldn’t be recommending Norwich at all. I think the fact that they played a knackered West Ham over the weekend who’d played with 10 men for well over an hour of a key Europa League tie and were licking their wounds after that, and they were still completely outplayed and hammered despite all that, is probably quite telling of where Norwich are right now. 12 defeats from 17 away. They’ve failed to score in 12 of 17 away as well. So Leicester may have lost to Everton at the weekend, but they were the better team. They haven’t won in seven, but they just keep shooting themselves in the foot so it’s hard to really have backing Leicester now with confidence, particularly with nothing to play for.

Mark O’Haire:

Conceding set piece goals again against Roma in the Conference League, and then again at the weekend, and Rodgers talks post-match about his frustration, and ultimately it’s his responsibility to get those details right, and he’s failing in that regard. So it’s difficult to support Leicester with so many defensive basics being missed. But I think going forward, they can put Norwich to the sword really. And Jordan Pickford was man of the match for Everton again at the weekend, and Leicester had nine shots on target and managed just the one goal. And no Maddison but he may be back.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve still got enough creative spark when you look at the players who are on the bench. To start that game against Everton who can come back in, it’s chalk and cheese really compared with what Norwich have to offer. So I’d expect a home win and a cushy one too, but the prices don’t make that appealing enough considering there’s nothing left to play for, for these two. So just an easy leave.

Flash:

Okay. And if you are of the Norwich persuasion, then the only thing I’d say is that maybe there’s some Norwich players that are looking to catch the eye because they know they’re going down, and if they can just catch the eye of a Premier League club who are maybe just above them and looking just to strengthen their squad, then you might see a performance. And also it’s a Norwich side that went to Old Trafford and scored a couple and just was so free. That’s the danger of this game of Norwich being completely free to just go and express themselves. But it is a pass, it’s a pass from nearly every single person in the chat apart from Christopher who says “-1 is a free hit.” No such thing, Christopher.

Flash:

Move on to our next game, which is game number four of six, and it’s another pass from us. It’s Watford versus Everton. Watford +345. Failed to score at the weekend, going down to Palace. Everton -125. Still not safe, need the points against a Watford side who are down. Mark O’Haire, under or over 2.5 goals. I can see this being an over, but it’s at -115. The draw is at +285. Everton are going to be happy with another point.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, they would. I can’t back Everton at minus money. I’m still very unwilling to pile too much praise on Everton despite beating both Chelsea and Leicester on paper. Really good impressive wins, but as I just said, Jordan Pickford was man of the match in both of those wins, which probably tells its own story. I think Yerry Mina is now injured again, which is a really big blow because he’s been knitting that dreadful defense together since he came back from injury. And yeah, I mean they probably will stay up now, but they’re one of favorites at Leicester on Sunday and it just kind of beggars belief really, I don’t know what people are seeing or why the market is so fond of them really. I know there’s motivation comes into it, but even still.

Mark O’Haire:

I guess the mood has changed around Goodison at the moment and there is confidence about them. They’ll feel there’s a bit of momentum about them too and they’ll see this as a very winnable game. But as you say, I think they’d be quite happy with a point here and they’re going to a Watford team who signed off quite a few weeks ago. I think six defeats on the spin, seven losses in nine, just a massively sort of negative mindset around the club as well with Roy Hodgson leaving and supporters are pretty furious about the direction of the club and the way in which Hodgson has kind of handled his stint there as well.

Mark O’Haire:

And look, they’ve lost 14 home premier league matches this season, including I think it’s 13 on the spin, which is a top flight record as well. So impossible to have faith in Watford, but at the same time you’ve got absolutely no business backing Everton at minus money either. So just an easy leave again for me to be honest. There may be goals, but I just really dislike Everton. I don’t think they’re very good at all. And when you see them at minus money, it kind of has its bearings in other markets too, and it’s just again, I’d rather pack out other bets elsewhere.

Flash:

100% agree. I mean, that’s it. There’s no value. How can you trust a side who, okay, they’ve beaten in recent times Chelsea, Leicester and Man United, but in all them games they’ve scraped, absolutely scraped. Watford are a big, strong, and listen, they might be the ones that are now in front of their home fans, they’re the ones that are free. I just can’t go near it, Stinch.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, Watford lost 14 of 17 home games, Everton lost 12 of 17 away. You can’t trust either team, and Mark’s absolutely right, this Everton price is absolute shocking, but it’s because obviously they need something and Watford are already down. But that doesn’t mean that it’s a free hit basically, it doesn’t mean that you can just back Everton blindly and go, “Okay. Yeah, there’s a good chance.” I’m not one that thinks they’re going to double my money sort of thing. No way you could trust Everton, and Mark’s perfectly right to point out that Jordan Pickford has been man of the match in the last two games, which tells you everything.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean you look at two teams, Watford conceded 70 goals, Everton conceded 56. If you’re really desperate for a bet in this game, I would look at the over 2.5 at -115. I mentioned on the last show that the month of May is the highest goal output in the premier league because of the on the beach factor and players switching off. So Everton obviously need the points and you’d expect them probably to score given they’re the ones that should be taking the game to the opposition, but NFA score, I think the game probably opens up a little bit more. But yeah, impossible really to trust either team to do anything. Watford have been shocking really. Their decision-making process in their manager selection is just abysmal and they kind of just deserve everything they get with going down.

Flash:

Agree. Move on, no picks, get on. You know what I mean? Because we have got plenty value and I’ll tell you what, this next game is one that I just cannot believe the price to be honest, Wolves versus Man City. Wolves are at +1100 for a reason. If this was a mid season, Wolves would be no bigger than what, +475, +500? But they’re double that. Man City -375. Man City -1.5 at -130. This is the one I cannot understand. Mans City to score three times against Wolves who yes, they scored a late goal, and yes, they were playing against a Chelsea side that were not very good, but Wolves have been the number one side for me that have actually switched off.

Flash:

Stinch, it’s Man City to win this game, right? But how do they win it? Because the -1.5, I see them winning 3-0, 4-0, 3-1, because again, the goal difference will come into effect. But Man City to score three at +125 against a Wolves side that they let in three against normal teams now.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’m slightly confused, Flash, because I thought you’d given Wolves quite a lot of praise, but now it seems that you’re-

Flash:

Yeah, but have you had a look in the last six performances? I mean they got done at home, they’ve just been letting goals in early. [inaudible 00:34:32] again, it’s like Wolves have always been tight first half, but now they just look like a side that are just going through the motions.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I guess so, but I think lots to like about the comeback against Chelsea, the last 10 minutes with the two goals. It shows a lot of character in my mind and a lot of fans suggesting that they were just meandering towards the end of the season, no interest because there was a long period where they were in a very good chance of making Europe. Now it’s pretty much they probably are going to finish eighth. It’s unlikely they’ll catch anybody above or be caught by anybody. So they’re probably just going to finish eighth. But that’s a good season for them. But I think they quite enjoy playing Man City. They’ve got a good record against them, and I think the fans and a lot of the players are still there from the victories they’ve had against Man City. I think they see it as a really good scalp.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean, I’m nearly back Wolves’ double chance just because of the odds on Saturday. And I don’t regret not doing it because I wanted a bigger price, but it still kind of shows my thought process that this Wolves team aren’t one in my mind, just to be considered as easy to… I don’t think this is a game at all that you want going into the end of the season. It’s worth noting that Liverpool’s last game of the season is home to Wolves. So again, I don’t think it’s one you want. I mean, Wolves have been fantastic defensively this season. Yes, they’ve overachieved in terms of when you look at the underlying numbers, but that’s a lot of credit then that goes to individual players such as the goalkeeper and some of the defenders.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Man City worth mentioning as well, no Kyle Walker, no Ruben Dias, and there’s one other player who’s ruled out till the end of the season as well defensively. I’m sure Mark will fill me in. So maybe Wolves can create something going the other way. So I don’t want to get involved in any of the match odds, but just having a look at the card prices, Man City over 1.5 cards +100. That looks quite a low line to me. This is the title they’re going for, everything’s on the line. Very well renowned for their tactical foul in. If they do take the lead, it will mean that Wolves probably will come out, and yeah, up to Man City to stop them.

Mark Stinchcombe:

And if they are having to play players that are out of position, for example, Fernandinho at center-back, maybe Zinchenko at left-back. All players that are a bit rusty, like Nathan Ake, very easy for them to pick up cards. So yeah, I think Man City over 1.5 cards +100 is quite attractive. And yeah, I’m going to go away and look at it actually. I’ll be tempted to add it as an official pick closer to the time.

Flash:

Well, if you do then make sure that you’re following @betussoccer because that’s where he’ll post it. Mark O’Haire, Leeds, the mighty Leeds scored three against Wolves. I know that Wolves went down to 10 men in like the 56 minute. Brighton went there and won 3-0. Okay, Brighton are a decent side. Failed to score against Burnley. Don’t even try to talk me off of Man City here -1.5, -130, when Man City have everything to play for. And also that +125 for City to score three. I just see Wolves they win 1-0 against a 10-man Everton, they lose 3-0 against Brighton. This Wolves side are not the same Wolves side that we saw three months ago.

Mark O’Haire:

Maybe not. But one thing I’m sure I’ve talked about with Wolves earlier in the campaign is Wolves are a team who for me are much more appealing as big underdogs rather than a team who are expected and heavy favorites to beat the likes of Burnley. I’d much rather bat them with a big start than bat them to overcome a big handicap start. So yeah, I mean they’re a tricky team and Stinch has already talked about them and their ability to kind of stay in games. We saw that at the weekend at Stamford Bridge, in droves really. And I thought they probably had signed off for the summer, but by the sounds of it, the Wolves players are still quite motivated to try and finish in the top seven and grab a European place. They’re five points adrift of West Ham with this game in hand.

Mark O’Haire:

Now obviously you can’t guarantee three points against City by any stretch, but they still feel like they’ve got a lot to play for. And part of the downgrade of their season has come because Jose Sa hasn’t been saving everything that’s come his way. He has massively over-performed this season. But yeah, if you look at their season so far, they’ve only lost four games by two goals or more, none of which came against the top eight. City and Liverpool have both had to scramble basically a 1-0 win against them. Chelsea were held twice by Wolves. Spurs were beaten 1-0. Arsenal managed two wins by one goal margins, and Man United were 1-0 winners and 1-0 losers against Wolves also. So they know how to set up and frustrate against the big teams.

Mark O’Haire:

And those injuries from Man City in defense, particularly Walker for his recovery pace and Dias as well. Stones is the other one that Stinch was talking about who is absent or looking like he’ll be missing at least for this midweek. So yeah, I mean through the sort of winter, I thought City were so controlling, so good without the ball as well as with the ball. But in more recent weeks, I have seen a couple of cracks. They’re giving away a couple more opportunities than they probably have done, but obviously they’re a class apart in the fall areas and they didn’t even really need Bernardo or Mahrez or Foden against Newcastle, such is the strength at their disposal. So yeah, I do expect City to win this game, but I don’t expect them to run away with it.

Mark O’Haire:

So I was quite tempted almost by a long shot. I’m not going to put it up, but it’s +300 for Man City to win by exactly one goal. City don’t care what the score line is, they just need the win and they’ll move on. And Wolves have obviously shown, as I said, in those results against the big teams that if they do go down, it tends to be quite small margins really. So I expect City to win for sure, but I’d rather back the +300 than back City to overcome a big handicap.

Flash:

But the big problem you’ve also got there is we’ve got to bring in the Villa-Liverpool game because if Liverpool go and win 4-0, all of a sudden Man City have got to start putting goals in the back of the net again. And I am chalking my own book. Wolves, not for me. Yes, I understand that they’re so much better against better opposition because they play in a proper European style, but this is not the Wolves that caused all the problems earlier on in the season. And the two goals, the momentum switched in the last two minutes at Stamford Bridge because Chelsea thought they’d won the game and just got completely sloppy. Official pick because I’m the only one that’s going with Man City -1.5 at -130, and I’ll be happy to stick Man City in a parlay with Liverpool and with Chelsea. And I’ll find out what that is, and maybe put that on @betussoccer.

Flash:

Now the final game. What an absolute cracker this is normally at any stage of any season, but this year it’s got even better. It’s Spurs or Tottenham versus Arsenal. Tottenham +110. Let me tell you straight away that that was +125 when it opened up and I went amp. I didn’t bite the hand, I bit it up to the shoulder. Arsenal +245, under or over 2.5, over at -130. I can easily see this being 2-1, 3-1. Team total of +105 for Spurs to score twice is another massive avenue. Stinch, I’m all over the home side here. I’m not having Arsenal, and I think they’re too strong and they’ve got people to score goals.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think the price is about right. No bet, Mark.

Flash:

I build it up as the biggest game. You spend four weeks talking about Leicester and Norwich with no bet, and then I give you the biggest game of the season at this stage and you go mute. It’s almost like you’re pleading the Fifth Amendment, as if you was on the stand there. Okay, Mark O’Haire, I put it to you. That Spurs are by far the better side, stronger in the most crucial areas. And then you put in the triumphant of the three going forward against the Arsenal boys who are relying on someone that they might not even want to keep next year.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, I think that is the difference. I wouldn’t go as far as saying Tottenham are a huge amount better than Arsenal because the consistency has been lacking, but I think there is a huge difference between the two teams and it’s up top and what Spurs have in their armory really, which is a huge amount of ammunition, clinical ability, pace, trickery, just so much more than Arsenal have really. And I think I want to be with Spurs, obviously a cracking game, but I think that Spurs play pretty well. Perhaps the praise was a bit overblown at the weekend, who knows really, that they survived the early onslaught at Anfield, grew into the game and provided problems of their own in the counter attacks. And I think they defended pretty well too in the second half, but this is what it’s all about.

Mark O’Haire:

This is what we’ve all been leading up to for a few weeks now. And North London derbies tend to be quite fun affairs. 17 of the last 21 in the Premier League has seen both teams scoring. Wouldn’t be too surprised at all to see that repeat itself again. And we’ll see a different Tottenham to what we saw at Liverpool. They got criticized by Jurgen Klopp for their approach, but I think it was a very sensible approach, and I think this calls for a completely different approach. And I think Conte will get his team absolutely up for this match, and they’ll be going for Arsenal from the first whistle really because the rivalry needs no introduction, but also the lay of the land in the Premier League needs no introduction and Spurs have been very strong at home to Arsenal in recent seasons.

Mark O’Haire:

They’ve won five of seven, unbeaten against Arsenal in recent years in the Premier League. And I think they’ll sense an opportunity here. So for all Arsenal’s progress that they’ve made this season, going back to August when they got thrashed twice in consecutive weeks, and they were being laughed at as being bottom of the Premier League, they’ve come a long way since then, but still there is a fragility about their away performances and they have lost seven away games in the League this season, which is quite a hefty total for a team chasing a top four finish. And they concede multiple goals in eight occasions as well. So there is still that fragility about them defensively. And there’s no better attack than Tottenham if they are on song and if they are all kind of singing from the same hymn sheet. And I think the atmosphere’s going to be actually jumping from the first whistle.

Mark O’Haire:

I really wouldn’t be too surprised if Tottenham from the first whistle absolutely go for Arsenal with a sort of rampant just first 15 minutes really, just try to squeeze the life out of Arsenal, get the early goal and things could get really tasty and quite lively quite quickly too. So I think I go back to December time when Spurs played Liverpool, and okay, Liverpool were missing a few key players, but Spurs went for them straight away. And they did the same against Man City. They were at the Etihad in February, they scored inside the first five minutes.

Mark O’Haire:

So rather than back Tottenham just to win the match because I think like Stinch, I kind of agree with the match odds in terms of what the prices are, because they’re saying Spurs are slightly better than Arsenal. That might be down to motivation and purely what’s at stake in the Premier League. And I appreciate all the prices correlating in all the markets, but rather than back Spurs at that price, I’d rather back the much bigger price which is around I think +250 on Tottenham/Tottenham in the half-time/full-time market. So you’re basically doubling the price on Tottenham to win by just adding them to basically lead at halftime.

Mark O’Haire:

As I said, I think just the lay of the land, and Spurs know exactly what they have to do. They’re going to be chasing. They need to get back into this top four race. Arsenal, you could assume will be a bit more reserved, a bit more pragmatic, a bit more aware of the situation. They’ll be more than happy to leave with a point or better. So yeah, I think it’ll be not necessarily one-way traffic from the first whistle, but I do think it’ll be a Tottenham team pushing and pressing from the first whistle. And I do think they will hopefully get ahead early doors and we’ll get a nice payout at a big price. But yeah, I’d rather be in Tottenham than Arsenal’s camp coming into this.

Flash:

Okay. Well, I’ve had word, Stinch, that the Fifth has been declined because look at this, +100 for both teams to score and over. +105 for Spurs to score over 1.5. Half-time/full-time, as Mark says, massive price. +340 for both teams to score in the first half, +110 for the home side. I mean, and then let’s throw in cards because this will get spiky.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I think Mark said, was it 17 in the last 21 North London derbies have seen both teams score? So that both teams score and over, did you say it was -105?

Flash:

+100.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Well, if you look at +100 when you consider over 2.5 is -130, look at the increase there just by saying that nobody wins to nil. That definitely looks like the way to go to me. Over 2.5 goals has been in six of Arsenal’s last seven games and Spurs have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 matches at home. My only reservation is in my mind is why I’m kind of leaving it alone is because it feels a little bit like a second leg of a European game, because Arsenal will be happy with a point in my mind because I think they’ve got a two point gap, isn’t it on Spurs in the League table? I think Arsenal will be happy to take a point and get out of there.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So that’s my only reservation really regarding, I think it could just be one-way traffic from Tottenham against [inaudible 00:47:57]. Maybe a difficult Arsenal back line to break down. I mean, Arteta has done it a few times since he’s been there, beat Liverpool in the Community Shield, beat both Man City and Chelsea in the FA Cup by playing this defensive low block game. So I could envisage him doing that. It’s just if he does that, I would be looking at maybe Tottenham corners, because it’d be just wave after wave of Tottenham attacks and given they have those high wing backs, the ball will get out wide and they’ll look to get crosses into Kane, and they’ll also look to take shots and that’ll lead to more corners. So I’ll be looking there as well. But yeah, if there was one bet I’d have to go for that both teams score and over because I think it’s fantastic given the increase from that -130 to +100.

Flash:

I love that. I give you six different markets that you didn’t even want to be getting involved in, and then you add one. What about the over 4.5 cards? Surely we see five cards or three. Listen, if you get three yellows and a red, that goes over. That gets you to five cards. So I mean, Listen-

Mark Stinchcombe:

Who’s the ref, Mark? Do we know yet?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. Paul Tierney, averages four cards in the Premier League this season anyway, so.

Flash:

This is getting naughty, mate. You have a look at somebody. Look at me, I’ve gone as if I’m selling stuff down the market. You’ve got players that their touch can be heavy in the center of midfield. We’ve got Hojberg who will stick his foot in, Xhaka, you’ve got pace, which means then the fallbacks are going to dive in. You’ve got almost out of the 22 players, I’d say there’s 15 that could be realistic yellow card targets. It’s just bonkers. Even Harry Kane, he could chase back if he loses the ball and cut someone. And listen, I think he’ll be like +300 for an individual. I love it. This is what I love in this game. Alex classic, both teams to score and over +100. Spurs to score twice. Okay, I’ve got to love the half-time/full-time because I want to be on Spurs, money night at +110.

Flash:

But the half-time/full-time comes from my expert. Cards over 4.5, and +110 for Spurs. Listen, Spurs money night. +110, Spurs half-time/full-time +250, and I’ve added Spurs to score twice at +105. Any questions? Let’s get the questions out while I remind you that we are America’s favorite sports book. We want to be your home of Soccer betting, and that’s because we show you all, or we cover all four major leagues, the Europa League, the Champions League, and obviously it’s World Cup year as well. Also, if you ring the bell, then that’ll be great because then we can notify you if there’s any change of time, a schedule, and you will never miss a show again.

Flash:

And if you’re on Twitter, then please follow @betussoccer because we will be giving updates. And listen, next season is when that will become more of the norm because everyone gets used to it. Jack Simpson said, “What do you make of Chelsea to score in both halves at +138?” Mark O’Haire, looks like a good way to go.

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. It’s plus money on a pro-Chelsea bet, which we’ve been talking up Chelsea. I think all three of us are on pro-Chelsea bets in that game. We’ve mentioned Leeds’ injuries and suspension issues and defense, and they’re going to be fielding a makeshift back four, and we’ve already outlined all the defensive woes that they’ve had anyhow. So chuck in key absentees and if Chelsea turn up, they should win the game with room spare. So yeah, it’s a reasonable price.

Flash:

Okay. Stinch, Mitch is saying, “Half-time/full-time Liverpool +130. If Liverpool half-time/full-time, then I’d probably prefer to go to +160 of Liverpool scoring three.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I would probably-

Flash:

You’re a Liverpool fan, so is this heart or head?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No, no, head. I would probably prefer to go for the Liverpool draw half-time then Liverpool to win the match, which I think would be quite juicy because obviously Liverpool are short price favorites.

Flash:

Oh, juicy that.

Mark Stinchcombe:

It’s just the fact that teams that Liverpool have come up against recently have just been so stubborn. And I think Liverpool realize that they’re trying to conserve energy a little bit probably because there’s a big fixture congestion. So yeah, Liverpool draw half-time just trying to see what price that is. So that’s +325. I think that sounds quite attractive, because you look at the games against Everton, you look at the games against Spurs, the games against Villarreal, all draws at half-time and then Liverpool eventually managed to find the breakthrough in the second half.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Okay, they didn’t actually beat Spurs, but it’s the points that remained, it took a while to break the opposition down. And as I said, Villa only conceded 17 goals in eight games against the top 8, so they have been quite stubborn Villa defensively. So I could see probably similar to how these previous games were played out, then Liverpool might take a while to break them down. So yeah, that +325 looks interesting. What are the odds by the way, Flash, on the over 4.5 cards in Tottenham-Arsenal?

Flash:

-130.

Mark Stinchcombe:

-130. I’ve got it as -150, just running the numbers.

Flash:

Okay. It was -130.

Mark Stinchcombe:

That -130 looks quite good. So I’m going to look to maybe add a couple of booking bets later on in the week, so yeah, I’ll definitely tweet those ones out.

Flash:

Good. Okay. Michael Marcaida… By the way that was from Jack Simpson. Jim is saying, “Any chance that Wolves get a goal with all the Man City defensive players missing?” I’m not so sure, but Stinch is nodding his head. Mark O’Haire, Wolves scoring?

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I mean we talked about Man City and that’s one of my worries about them kind of running away the game against Wolves is the fact that they’re missing some really key personnel. They gave Newcastle a few opportunities at the weekend at home, so the reason if Wolves are on it, then they absolutely can cause them problems.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I wouldn’t back that at +105 there.

Flash:

Exactly. Mitch is saying he’s going to go with draw or Liverpool at pre-50. I’ve got Liverpool winning 2-0 at half time. Okay. MD, “Yeah, listen, it’s a different show but as you know I’ve gone with Roma. Yes, I see maybe both teams scoring, but Roma at +195 is far better than both teams to score at -130.” Okay. Please thumbs up, show a bit of appreciation we’re at just below 50%, which is not bad. Here’s your official picks. Chelsea -1 at +110. Remember I’ve added Spurs team total over 1.5 at +105. Stinch has gone for Liverpool and under 4.5 at -140. Chelsea and over 3.5 at +300. Remember the North London Derby is on Thursday. We’ve got no Europa League, we’ve got no Champions League. Look forward to that game because I’ll run down this again for you. Both teams to score and over, +100. +105 for Spurs to score twice. Half-time/full-time of Spurs, +339.

Flash:

And for both teams to score in the first half, I’m not so sure about that. +110 just straight Spurs win. The over 4.5 cards is at -130. And remember Stinch even added corners. So from everyone at BetUS, have a great week. Remember we’ve got La Liga midweek card coming up as well. And then we’ll see you on Thursday when it is back to normal Premier League, Serie A, La Liga. And then on Friday, it will be Bundesliga, and it’s the second leg of the Triple Crown next week, if you like that. So you go over to the golf, tennis and horse racing show, make sure you subscribe to there too. So from everyone in the chat, it’s been a good show, I’ve really enjoyed it. Stinch, go well. Mark O’Haire, I’ll see you Thursday. From everyone at BetUS, you take care.

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