Premier League Picks, Midweek Predictions, Odds & Soccer Free Tips

If you like your odds and your props, then type in betustv.com/odds. If you like any of the odds or props, then why don’t you type in betustv.com/50. There’s a $50 free bet. We’re going to have to obviously [inaudible 00:00:43] chat. Well, that’s your domain. We’ll have a little chat, but you need to be piping up and having an opinion because we have all six games of the midweek card.

Even if we haven’t got a pick, we are going to be talking about all of the six games, and when I say we, I’m going to be talking about the man who walks around with a broom. Mrs. O’Haire says that Mark’s not left the broom alone. So it was lovely that he swept. Mark O’Haire, a sweep in the Premier League? That’s like a unicorn.

Mark O’Hare:

Well, it’s been a long time coming, Flash. I feel like I’ve hit the posts, week in, week out. I had a couple of rotten weeks. So yeah, it was quite nice to see it bank all three wagers. It’s nice to see them all bank pretty easily, as well. The Brighton game, 2-2 after half an hour or inside the first half hour, and then the only one that kind of got close was Newcastle United with the unders.

Newcastle already battered United and probably could have scored a couple more, but thankfully the first goal, the opening goal, didn’t arrive ’til quite late in the game so that certainly helped, too. But yeah, no, it’s a nice weekend and hopefully more to follow, too.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yep. Stinch, you’ve done what you do, just follow them teams with the overs when they should go over and the under when they should go under.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, pretty much. I was getting fairly excited about the corner bet as well, to be honest. I think we only had one inside the opening 40 minutes, I think it was. So I thought it had a good chance, especially with City getting back on level terms so quickly, so it’s not as if there would be an onslaught.

They’re playing John Stones at fullback as well, so I thought that sort of helped the case even more, instead of Kyle Walker. But yeah, we keep taking the value and long-term should make some profit.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, but that’s why you have to listen to the show and not just go gospel, because the line was set at minus 110 at nine and a half. So we said, well, go with plus money, go under eight and a half. And there was eight. So listen, just because you went with plus 1000, plus 900 at the off, people still picked up the plus 125 of under eight and a half corners in the game.

Okay, now let’s have a little look at the records, because the records are just unbelievable viewing, because we’re going down, look at that. Flash at 20. Honestly, I’m going to be throwing a dinner party if I get that 0.08, and then I’ll get back into 19. But look, 24.18, people have got to remember we was at 34. Remember I said take a screenshot? We was at 34, that’s 10 units you’ve made in the last few weeks, and we’re going to keep kicking on because we’ve still got 10 rounds to go.

Mark O’Haire after his sweep, has gone into single figures of the negative, and Stinch’s just… He’s so boring, he has positive. Doesn’t want to join the party. Look at that, 4-4-4. I’ve got to be changing that. I don’t like the three fours there.

Mark Stinchcombe:

4-4-2?

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

4-4-2? Yeah, 444.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Classic.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

See, that’s why he’s up. He’s playing with 12 men. The disgrace. Although to be fair, I played with 2-0-1, I’ve had eight players sent off. Harry Docherty he says good evening. “Hey, Ash. Ponies Soccer picks Mitch.” Yeah, nice to see that you’re actually turning up on time now, Anderson. Let’s have a good one, because we’ve got six games, we’ve got two manager-less clubs, so we’ve got two managers that are obviously going to be crawling round and trying to get in. The good news, well, for me in the futures, was that Brendan Rogers wouldn’t see out the season. Graham Potter, I think the job was too big for him, at any stage. I don’t know what was going on there. Let’s have a little look, though, at the first game. Remember, all six, let’s go. Bournemouth versus Brighton. Yeah, you can call it a South Coast Darby, but one is in Hampshire, one is in Sussex. And in fact Bournemouth might be even in Dorset. But anyway, it’s Bournemouth at plus 475, Brighton at minus 175 on the road. Minus one for the visitors is at minus 105. The draw is at plus 320. But whenever we do the Premier League show, Brighton are involved [inaudible 00:04:36] number still set at two and a half. The over two and a half, Mark O’Haire, is at minus 125.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, it was minus one 20 when we put our selections in. It’s been clipped in very slightly but still, it’s a bet for me at that price, as it always is in Brighton matches. I’ll start with Bournemouth, though, because I was really pleased for them and Gary O’Neill to get that result at the weekend. Nice call on the overs there, Flash, too. But yeah, we’ve been quite full of praise, really, for Bournemouth since the transfer window. The results haven’t always followed but the performances have been promising before the window, before the weekend, I should say. No side have lost more games, won fewer points, or scored fewer goals than Bournemouth since the World Cup, but there was definite movements in the right direction ahead of that Fulham game. A bit of a tinkering with [inaudible 00:05:20] system. A few new faces making a difference and getting Solanke back, fit and available.

The same with Lerma and Billing, as well. There’s some big players now available for them and they’ve been playing with a bit of a new lease of life, really, and we saw them and get the job done against Liverpool at home. Did so again against Fulham and pushed Newcastle hard, Arsenal got a really bad, tough test at the Emirates. Man City even didn’t have it too easy, either, and they won at Wolves, as well, so there has been signs that they’re getting it together. They did take advantage of a Fulham team without Mitrovic and Willian, but I thought Gary O’Neil was really honest post-match when he said, “I have to take the blame for a very slow and sloppy start. We made changes at half time, and obviously came good in the second half, too,” so he’s well aware they’ve not put together a full 90 minute performance but that was only their third win since November as well, but they’re out of the bottom three.

Zabarnyi played, which was a big thing. Ouattara, Senesi, had chances in the game, as well. So they’re talking about the players having loads of belief now, belief running through the camp, and they really believe that they can stay up. So this’ll be a fascinating test. They are playing more on the counter attack these days. Brighton, as we know, love the ball, love to attack, and love to shoot, and therefore, I think there will be a recipe for goals in this match because as you said before the Fulham game, Bournemouth absolutely desperate. Home games they’ll especially be targeting.

But Brighton, they still have a shot at the top four, and the way in which they’re trending under De Zerbi, they’ve actually got a decent shout of doing so. But yeah, we expected goals against Brentford, probably not to be 2-2 inside the first half hour. Needed that 90th minute penalty for a point but they fully deserved it because a combination of poor defending, wayward finishing, and David Raya in the Brentford goal, sort of played their part. But Brighton had 33 shots in that game. 19 inside the box, nearly four and a half expected goals, 14 corners, just a madness that they didn’t win the game.

But yeah, we said basically ignore the raw numbers, ignore the raw numbers on clean sheets and over two and a half goals landing in just two of their previous six games, because all the underlying metrics pointed to being Brighton matches continue to be wild affairs. Their last eight Premier League games, have averaged 3.55 xG. Over a 12 game sample, it’s 3.48 xG. We’ve had 20 games now in the Premier League under De Zerbi. 3.35 goals per game on average. Brighton has scored in 16 of those. They’ve managed only five clean sheets, none of which came away from home. And actually, Brighton have kept just one clean sheet on their travels all season, but failed to score once on the road themselves.

They’ve actually scored two goals or more, eight of 12 away games. And if you go back to the start of last season, they’ve scored in 26 of 31 away days and kept just six clean sheets as well. So if you look at those numbers there, the market expects Brighton to score two goals, the market expects Bournemouth to score. So, naturally you look towards over two and a half goals at minus 125, still being chalked up at a very backable price. Yeah, Brighton, we say it all the time, can cover this line all on their own but they will always give you opportunities too, and especially if you would fancy Bournemouth to score at home, and Brighton playing away, so you could go BTDS and over two and a half goals but I think the price here and overs just allows you that flexibility to just keep it nice and simple. So that’ll be my selection, again.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I don’t see Bournemouth getting beat, Stinch. I honestly don’t. I see this being tight game, as in competitive. I see plenty chances at both ends. I see Bournemouth scoring two, I’m not sure Brighton score three. Bournemouth double chance is at plus 145. I just see, I’d love to have the home side, and the draw, and on a night game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, and I kind of understand where you’re coming from. We see Brighton, the way they’re priced up here as if they’re almost like a champion’s league team, in a way…

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Correct.

Mark Stinchcombe:

.. at these sort of odds. I was quite pleased, I think, on Saturday. Urged caution in blindly throwing Brighten in an accumulator or parlay, and even though they deserve to win, it’s all about price, at the end of the day. So I think the market obviously likes Brighton because of the price, but it’s still not fully convinced by goals. It’s kind of strange. It’s almost suggesting if Brighton win this, they win this to nil, and it’s like, have people not been watching? No clean sheets away from home under De Zerbi. Just four in 19. And we know Brighten themselves are more than capable of scoring over two goals.

So yeah, really, really easy bet, rinse and repeat, 11 in the last 15 have been over two and a half goals. Bournemouth’s games are averaging 2.9 per game, but expected goals are slightly higher, and the odds that are driving these prices here, suggest 2.8 goals per game. So with Brighton’s under De Zerbi at 3.3, again, very, very easy bet. On Saturday, had to take a bit of a higher line to get a decent price, 2.75, and we saw four goals in the first half an hour. But somehow I’m able to get a slightly lower line, even though everything we’ve seen, tells us that it’s going to going to be a goal fest. So, yeah, I think until the line, even if the line went to three, I’d still try and find a way, probably, to back both teams and to score in overs at a similar price. So, essentially it’s going to be a long time, I think, until we stop talking about Brighton matches and goals.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I just cannot believe, this must be a first, Brighton at minus 175 on the road? No chance. I just cannot see that. You have to go with a home side double chance at plus 145, and if Brighton go and win, then great, but just sheerly on the numbers, yes, you go over two and a half because it could foul, but you cannot desert it, because it goes right. Both teams are scoring over, and the Brighton game at the weekend was plus 110. It was done in 20 minutes. And the teams that have come a cropper going to Bournemouth. Brighton are not in that class. Brighton just will play end-to-end. You have the ball, we have the ball, but we’ll probably be a little bit more dangerous than you. I’m adding, I’m definitely adding.

Let’s have a look at the official picks. Remember, it’s game one of six, and we’ve got over two and a half for the boys, copy and paste. So listen, it is one of those. Just keep going to the well, and when there’s no water, you’ll get done. But at the moment, it looks like plenty of water in that well. And I’m going to go with Bournemouth double chance at plus 145. I know there is maybe a little bit higher you can get, as well, but plus 145 double chance, I am definitely adding, and that is official.

Let’s move on to game number two. Wow, seven pointer, this game. Leeds host Forest. Leeds at minus 125, too short. Forest plus 360. That could be too short, as well. The draw is a definite runner at plus 265, over two and a half goals at plus 100. I’m not so sure. Forest, I’m not scoring twice, but I do believe they score. I’ve got this game at 1-1, Stinch. That’s where I want to start. So then I’m not going under or over.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I can kind of see where you’re coming from but Forest are almost similar in terms of levels of trust, as kind of, away from home, like Liverpool. They’ve just been absolutely shambolic, I would say, away from home. They’ve scored four goals on the road all season, and they think they can stay up. If they think they can stay up, then it’s going to have to be their home form, but their home form has not been great either. Dropping points to relegation rivals in Everton and Wolves of late, and they have got a very tough set of fixtures in the run-in, as well. So I’d be concerned for Forest, but I don’t think anyone out there would be rushing to bet Leeds at minus money. Looks a little bit of a trap, but then again as I say, at the same time, Forest have offered next to nothing, going forward.

I think the goal line’s quite interesting. We sort of associate Leeds’ manager, Javi Gracia, as not being a goal-heavy manager in terms of the games his teams are involved in. But we saw Leeds away at Wolves, not so long ago. Obviously we saw Leeds away at Arsenal. No surprise, really, to see them lose, and fairly heavily. Leeds themselves were minus 120 just a score in that game, and they registered, obviously, on the score sheet there. I think if you think Leeds win, you probably think Leeds don’t win 1-0, so you’d be better off backing the minus 110 they score over 1.5 goals, than the minus 125 they just win the match. But I’m not ready to trust Leeds, defensively. I do think Forest have the weapons to hurt them on the counter if it ever clicks, but as we know, they brought in so many different players and they’ve suffered a lot of injuries as well, truth be told.

So Steve Cooper’s always having to juggle his 11 and his frontline, in particular. So I think, grand scheme of things, you say if it plays out in the six point style, then both teams might not try and give anything away, but I don’t know if both teams are able to do that, defensively. They’re abysmal. So I think, push comes to shove, if I was forced to a bet, I definitely think I’d take the overs. It feels similar to the Bournemouth-Fulham game at the weekend. I know it’s a different scenario in terms of relegation, et cetera, but I feel like there’s two teams that are more likely to see an overs game than the odds suggest. I think perhaps, there should be maybe chalks of a bit more 50/50 on the odds, and yeah, maybe Leeds closest to minus 110 than the minus 125, but I can understand it, given Forest’s wretched away form.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, no wins in five, for the visitors. Leeds, two wins in their last five. Yeah, more than a bum fight down there at the bottom. I’m just thinking that Forest turn up, Mark O’Haire, and they say, “Right, okay. Well, listen, you beat us, we’ll be patient, we will take our time.” I can see this being 1-1. I see it maybe being 0-0. Leeds could obviously go and absolutely torture them, but I’ve got the draw around 220, so when I saw the draw at plus 265, how do you split these two sides?

Mark O’Hare:

It’s hard. It’s really hard. The first thing I did when I looked at this match was, I sort of take a step back, I couldn’t believe Leeds were minus money. I can’t be backing them at that kind of price, particularly without Tyler Adams. I said it last week but he is an enormous miss. His work off the ball is as good as any in the Premier League. I believe he’s destined for a bigger club than Leeds, at some point, and in the four matches he’s missed for Leeds in the Premier League, this season, they’ve conceded 12 goals and allowed 73 shots. I don’t think that’s a massive surprise, really. And look, they competed reasonably well at the Emirates at the weekend, until the opening goal, but then you’re always chasing. We’ve seen that happen to both Palace and Everton in recent weeks, so I’m not going to read too much into that.

But what I was surprised and kind of put off by, from a Leeds perspective, was the team sheet. It was a very odd 11 that Javi Gracia picked, with Aaronson sort of leading the line in a kind of false nine role. Didn’t have any impact whatsoever on the game, which, yeah, it’d be a concern. I do want to see the team sheets before having any sort of faith in Leeds. This is a team at minus money, who have only won six times in the Premier League, all season. And only two sides have picked up fewer points at home than Leeds, which is quite surprising, really. So you can focus on Forest’s poor away record, but Leeds haven’t been fantastic at Elland Road, surprisingly, either.

However, if you do sort of identify their record at home to bottom half teams, it’s actually pretty decent. They’re unbeaten. They’ve won four of six. But even so, we assume Gracia will make them more defensively organized, more rounded, less chaotic, but we haven’t seen that, recently. They’ve conceded eight goals in three games. And again, just kind of goes back to the Tyler Adams departure from injury, and having Rodrigo and Bamford back does make a difference, but we need to see them in the team rather than on the bench.

So, Forest, winless in seven, four of those have been defeats. Conceding goals, conceding chances, loads of injuries, talk about them being fairly reliable at the City Ground, but less so, away from home. Well, actually, the City Ground performances have kind of shown a bit of a regression recently, too, and as Stinch said, just four goals away from home. We’re in April now. Kind of embarrassing, really. So the only thing I would say about Forest is if you rule out the top five in the league, they’ve only lost six times this season, so they can be competitive, but yeah, there’s just not enough there for me in any market to get excited about.

The one area I was keen on, we haven’t got prices on BetUS just yet, would be the cards market, just being a massive six pointer between two tetchy, feisty teams who do like to put their foot in, both teams, very much towards the top end of the cards area. If you could get a three and a half line, it’d be an absolute dream. You probably won’t do, it’d be about four and a half. So if you can get an [inaudible 00:18:08] line of four, then I’ll be taking overs at around minus 120. But yeah, nothing official, here.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay. Chat, get doing what you do, find out the card line right across the board, we’ll take a mean on that. I just cannot see… I think Forest park the bus. I think that Forest come away here and I think that the one point just means that Leeds and some of the others are just definitely going to stay behind them. They need something, and it won’t be a bad thing on the back of obviously conceding a late equalizer at the weekend. So I’ve got this down as being a draw. Official pick, please. Draw, plus 265. That’s only because I can’t split them and I think that Forest will be very, very organized, very solid, and then people can say, “They’ve let in 50 goals. How are they organized? How are they solid?” Because now they have to be. They have to be, because otherwise all that hard work, all through the season, trap door and it’ll be Championship for them, next year.

Let’s go on to game number three. Goals! Leicester, plus 150, Villa plus 180. Forget all that. Over two and a half goals, minus 120, looks like being probably one of the bets of the season, to be honest, because both teams are going to be scoring, there’s no clean sheets. New manager for Leicester, so they could just go gung-ho. And Villa, wow, I didn’t see them going to Chelsea and keeping a clean sheet and scoring twice, because Villa to score twice here, and this is probably another way to go, plus 150. Leicester to score twice at plus 135. Mark O’Haire, goals, don’t care who wins, because you could do both team score twice.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, the price in the market looks relatively appealing. Just kind of put off by the Brendan Rodgers sacking. The timing of it’s very strange, as well as Graham Potter’s as well. We’ve just come off an international break and the clubs obviously felt happy enough with their managers going into the international break. To then fire them one game after, just [inaudible 00:20:05] belief and shows how badly run some of these kind of multi-billion dollar industry clubs are. But that’s a different argument. Yeah, I guess if you ignore the timing, you can absolutely see why Leicester acted. The result was poor at the weekend, but the manner of the performance of losing in Palace was unforgivable, really. To lose the shot count, 31-, to a Roy Hodgson team, is a sackable offense. 20 of those shots came inside the penalty area. Just staggering stuff, really. It was a 17th defeat in 28 Premier League games, and the fifth in six. Just awful statistics. If you look purely at squad strength, clearly Leicester and West Ham would be bracketed in the sort of too good to go down category but the reality was or has been that Leicester are heading that way, the direction where they’re going at the minute, without that sort of intervention.

So, defensively they’ve been a shambles for a very, very long time but we know they do have the attacking arsenal to do damage against most sides in the division. So I think that’s what’s been most frustrating for supporters is, clearly there is talent in that squad. But yeah, the sacking does put me off this match. We’ve talked about it in previous examples when managers have left their post. We just don’t know how players react. We don’t know how the caretakers, Adam Sadler and Mike Stowell, what they do in terms of, do they change the team shape, approach, performance levels? Did the players want Rodgers gone> are they happy in the current situation? We just don’t know, and I’d like to see a bit more evidence before pulling a trigger on any sort of selection, than just kind of assuming. So yeah, not as many questions, clearly, about Villa, who I thought were pretty decent at the weekend.

They did concede a lot of shots against Chelsea but on the balance of play, they took their opportunities and defended pretty well, as well. They’re now unbeaten in five, have kept clean sheets in four of their five wins during that sample. Only City, Man United, and Arsenal, have earned more points than Villa under Emery. No side has won more points away from home during that sample, either. Five wins on their travels in eight under Emery. Ollie Watkins is in great form, scoring, creating. Buendia’s enjoying that role now without Coutinho in the side. So I think stylistically, they could certainly trouble Leicester, and even defensively, I think they have improved massively. Someone who we’ve sort of derided a few times but Tyrone Mings has really kind of started to show his best form holding that defense together, and they’ve just got real work horses and dogs in that midfield, which make them a really awkward team to play against. I don’t think they’re an easy three points for anyone at the minute, so I’d be surprised if they lost this game.

So, you talk about the overs. Yeah, I agree. Possibly a good bet, a nice price. I thought Villa as a pick and plus 100 was a reasonable angle, as well. But just going back to the start, really, I can’t be involved when a manager’s just been sacked because I just don’t know what the reaction’s going to be, so I’ll leave that alone and let you guys get involved.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, the other one is, though, Stinch, we can’t expect Leicester to go there and just play for a point. They are in desperate need to get something, which then will open up to Villa. Villa have pace to burn on the break. They’ve obviously got dogs of war in midfield, and coming off of that Chelsea win, they’re going to be full of confidence. I don’t see clean sheets here, so that both teams are scoring over, will be plus money.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, Leicester’s last victory was… Well, the victory before last, was that 4-2 win at Villa not so long ago where we sort of praised them. I think that might have been Tete’s first game or at least was one of his early games where he scored. Madison was involved heavily, and yeah, it just seemed to have gone massively backwards. Villa sort of flagged them up at the weekend as being difficult to play against, and arguably was a really good matchup for them, going away to Chelsea, especially they’ve already been to Spurs won to nil, they’ve been to Everton, won to nil, been to Southampton, won to nil, and under Emery, so he’s managed… I don’t think the system lends itself long-term to winning football matches, but I think it certainly lends itself to keeping them in games for long periods and then you just say, can we hit them on the counter attack? Can we get Watkins in behind, for example?

I would err on the side of caution, of just sort of blindly going for the overs because of the managerial change. Don’t know how Leicester are going to set up. Are they going to play a similar formation? Are they going to see this as the sort of reset and will build from defense, forward, or are they going to see it, as you sort of pointed out, that they need to get points and play on the offensive? We don’t know how they’re going to line up. If it’s a goalkeeper in charge, ex-goalkeeper, you think maybe they [inaudible 00:24:43] more on the side of caution. But again, that would just be an absolute guess. So I think Mark is kind of right, that you probably want to be with Villa, but I don’t think you want to be at Villa with the prices on offer. So I think it’s just a watch in brief and seeing how, basically, Leicester are going to play, long term. But I have to say, at plus 135 and Leicester score over 1.5 goals, again, you wouldn’t want to back that when they’re plus 150 to win the game. But as all-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

But you’ve seen them defend. You’ve seen them defend. They could score three and not win the game.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, yeah, and I take that on board, absolutely. But as we know, football generally a low scoring game, except for perhaps when Brighton are involved, so yeah, waffled quite a lot there but it’s difficult to hang your hat on something when you’ve just got a new manager that… Well, not even a new manager, a caretaker manager coming in. Does he have a bond with certain players? Jamie Vardy’s been kind of, sort of out in the midst now. Is he the sort of player that’s going to be brought back in? Is he going to maybe readjust where Madison positions himself? Is he going to maybe switch to three at the back, to try and get more bodies? Because they have been very susceptible, as we’ve talked a lot about them defensively. So yeah, I think that Emery, whilst he’s doing a very good job, I think he’s sort of riding the wave of variance. I kind of think back to that Friday night game against Leeds. When leads absolutely battered them, Villa still came out on top. I think long-term, he can get Villa a top 10 club, playing this style of football. But as I say, it doesn’t lend itself, in my mind, to me wanting to back them to win football matches.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

There was six goals between these two last time when they met at Villa Park, and Villa could have been five up at halftime. Was it Villa? Went 2-1 up and ended up losing 4-2. I just see goals, and I see no clean sheets and both teams to score, and I’m so looking forward to this game. I will be cheering on Villa, but my official pick is just straightforward. It’s both teams are scoring over two and half, at plus 110. I just do not see any clean sheets. I see Villa scoring and I see Leicester scoring, and listen, Leicester, it might be a free hit for them, but a draw’s no good. They’re sitting in the bottom three. Okay, move on. There was something else I had to say. Yeah, I think they might revert to type.

But anyway, let’s go to Southwest London, because there’s another team that have just sacked their manager, and just all the talent in the world here, and if it was on a school report, both of these would be must do better, can do better, must concentrate and apply themself, because Chelsea are plus 145 at home to Liverpool at plus 180. The draw is at plus 255, the under two and a half, is at plus money.

I think the under two and a half at plus 105 is the way to go here. But I am going to sit on the fence. Stinch, you’re the Liverpool fan. What is going on with Liverpool? And then you go to Chelsea where, most teams go to Chelsea and they come away with something.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, it’s quite strange that I kind of label these two teams as both being woeful right now. We know Liverpool have shown glimpses, the victory against Man United, for example, but there’s just been too many times this season, particularly away from home, where they’ve given the opposition opportunities to score goals, and good opportunities, as well. The expected goals is not what you would consider a title challenger. And then that’s essentially what they were, pre-season. We saw how last season, how they were involved in all four competitions right to the very end. And this season, it’s been completely different. I would say it’s, players have aged, there’s quite an old midfield, now, they have, and generally under Klopp, the midfield three that he plays, they’re not there to contribute to the goals in terms of scoring them or even really assist, really.

They’re there to be workhorses up and down the pitch, nonstop. And I just think the likes of Henderson and Fabinho, and Thiago is injury-prone anyway, are just not good enough perhaps to play 40, 50 games a season. They need to get some more younger legs in there but they didn’t really target that from a transfer business. They brought in Gakpo and Nunez up front, who, whilst might be good long-term, I think it’s too early to say. And yeah Chelsea, if Liverpool’s transfer business was maybe not fantastic, Chelsea’s been absolutely woeful, hasn’t it? That absolute massive scattergun approach. Clearly not maybe in line with Graham Potter’s vision of how Chelsea would line up, but next to impossible if you’re only going to give him two months after they’ve made all these January signings. And a lot of them are young players, as well.

So, Chelsea, the way they run the football club, as Mark alluded to, is just completely not in line with any form of process. As we mentioned, even over a 38 game Premier league season, you don’t always get what you deserve. So to sack Potter after less than, what? Five months in charge, it’s just shocking, really.

Again, it’s a difficult one because we don’t know how Chelsea are going to line up. Very bizarrely that it’s one of Potter’s assistants taking charge. If they’re not happy with Potter, why would they be happy with one of his assistants? I can’t imagine he’s going to play completely different to Potter. But one thing I would mention is, when these two line up, actually, they do generally seem to play pretty well, especially defensively. You mentioned about the unders being where you might want to go, and I would probably agree, despite the fact Liverpool have been abject defensively, we know Chelsea don’t have a reliable goal scorer, and yeah, the last five meetings between these two teams have all finished in a draw.

A few of those are in cup competitions where maybe there’s more on the line, so they play more with the hand break on, but Chelsea don’t really have anything to play for in the league. Liverpool are chasing top four, but I don’t think they’ll go into this in a gung-ho fashion. So yeah, it could be low-scoring and cagey. You can get plus 500 for draw at halftime and draw at full-time. Obviously, that’s a much bigger price than just the plus 255 on the draw. But yeah, if you were play playing it properly, I would look at the, probably under 2.75 goes, around about minus 110. So if you did see three goals, you still get half your stake back, and only four would see your bet completely lose.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, honestly, when I looked at this, Mark O’Haire, I actually came up with a decision of, it’s under two and a half goals or just leave it, and I sided on the leave it business, because I don’t know what I’m getting from either of these two.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, it’s trust and reliability. You don’t have any of that with either of these two teams, and for the same reasons of the Leicester game, I can’t be involved in this match. Bruno is a Potter man so we might not expect to see massive changes from Chelsea. But also, it’s impossible to predict the mindset of the players or even he [inaudible 00:32:01] system, so he might want to try something new, just don’t know, really. But very, very difficult to be [inaudible 00:32:06] Chelsea, even at those prices. Premier League season is as good as over. Five wins from 21 across all comps. Four Premier League wins in 19 since mid-October. They’ve clearly got the players, got the ability in the squad, but injuries, just a bloated squad, has just led to just massive variance and the biggest weakness in the squad was never solved. They never signed a striker.

So Todd Boehly has shown how not to run a football club when you’ve got a bottomless pit of money. They’re a club in transition but they just lack, no plan, no direction. It’s kind of laughable the money that they’ve burnt this season. But there we go. I think there were signs they were sort of trying to get on the right track. I thought the home and away performances against Dortmund were really good, actually, but they’ve just been so unreliable. The win at Leicester wasn’t anywhere near as convincing as the score suggested, and then to drop points and concede twice at home to Everton, not cool< and then the weekend just kind of capped things off, really. But you can’t trust Liverpool either, outside of Anfield. Three Premier League wins on their travels all season, 12 points from 39, failing to score on six occasions.

So yeah, actually, if there was a bet to be had in this game, I agree, I’d be looking towards the draw or under two and a half goals or even combining the two. As Stinch says, the last five have been drawn, six of the last seven head-to-head have gone under two and half goals, as well. Something similar wouldn’t be a huge surprise, really, considering unders has landed in nine of 14 games at Stanford Bridge this season, and those matches have averaged just two goals per game. So the reverse game was a really dire 0-0, wasn’t it, on a… I think it was a Saturday, early kickoff, and Chelsea were actually the better team at Anfield but Liverpool were missing half of their squad, that day. So, no bet for me. Liverpool are very erratic at the best of times, at the minute, and Chelsea, we just don’t know where they’re at, right now, so no bet for me.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay, yeah, I do quite fancy maybe the under one goal first half, as well. I don’t know if you’re going to get rich. So I fancy 0-0 at half time. But there is no official pick, so we might as well just kick on to the game five of six. There’s plenty in the chat by the way, good opinions as well. So please make sure you read, and if you’ve not typed, then please type and get involved. Man United-Brentford. Man United at minus 155, Brentford going great guns not showing any respect for anyone, home or away, [inaudible 00:34:19] a massive plus 400. Brentford can lose the game by getting plus one, and you’re still going to get paid at minus 130. So, basically what’s that going to be? Double chance at maybe plus 125, 130. Over two and a half goals, minus 135, probably looks the way to go. No Casemiro, Mark O’Haire, which I know we say one player don’t make a team, but they do look awfully different when he is there and to when he’s not.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, they really do. My selection here is Brentford plus one. I-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Freudian slip, eh?

Mark O’Hare:

That’d be confident. But no, I put it in at minus 120. There’s been money, it’s minus 130 now. It’s not a direct reaction to Man United’s performance in that defeat in Newcastle on Sunday, but it’s a combination of a few concerns, really, about United in recent weeks. It’s also a nod towards Brentford and their ability to be competitive and stay in games. I’ll start with them, really, because they were a stoppage time penalty away from winning at Brighton at a big price at the weekend. And of course, they were outplayed for the majority of that match but we talked about their ability from set pieces, which showed. No side has scored more goals from dead ball situations. We highlighted Ivan Toney as a major threat to that defense with his pace and his power. That obviously bared fruit, as well. And I think the same things applied this midweek. Brentford have now scored in 21 of 27 league games this season.

If they score at Old Trafford, I just don’t see them losing by two goals or more. This is a sign that’s scored at Arsenal and drawn, scored at Man City and won, scored at Brighton and drawn. It’s a team with just one defeat in 16 Premier League games and just five defeat all season. Now, I know United’s record at Old Trafford is strong and looks quite intimidating on paper. I totally get that, but more recently, it’s been pretty underwhelming. The Southampton game, admittedly they got a red card, Casemiro, but to draw 0-0 at home to Saints, even with 10 men, not good enough. They beat Leicester 3-0 but they really could have been a couple of goals down before halftime. The full-time score did not reflect that match, at all. Leeds came here and drew, 2-2. Could have won that match.

Palace were beaten, just 2-1, were very, very competitive during a really dire run for them. So that’s the last four games in the Premier League since the start of February. Not very convincing at all, even in cup competitions, West Ham could and should have won at Old Trafford. Fulham were much better than the scoreline suggested, as well. So United are not steamrollering sides, and far from it, actually. You mentioned mentioned Casemiro. Also Eriksen, as well. Two huge, huge losses in that midfield. And Weghorst, I actually like Weghorst, but the experiment of him leading the line-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

What? To clean your windows?

Mark O’Hare:

I think he’d do a job in the right system and the right team, and it’s just not working. It’s losing its charm…

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Or Accrington Stanley.

Mark O’Hare:

His lack of mobility is putting extra pressure on that midfield, and when there’s no Casemiro mopping things up, they just look massively, massively underwhelming. And they’ve now failed to score in three successive Premier League games, as well. So, go back to the beginning, the manner of that defeat at Newcastle was quite shocking, actually. They were utterly dominated. And Brentford are no easy meat for any team. They’re awkward, they’re smart, they’re very process-driven, but they’re very difficult to beat at the best of times. And I think when you’re missing key components, especially in midfield, you are vulnerable to a team like Brentford. So I’d be very surprised if United win this game by more than one goal, at best. So I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Brentford take a point here. So, happy to have them on side with the decent start.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, listen, I’m thinking the numbers could well be wrong here, because I’ve got Brentford over one and a half goals at minus 190. I think that should be maybe plus 190, but I do see Brentford scoring. But I also see Man United winning. Not enough to actually make it an official pick, Stinch, but man United to win and both teams to score. So it brings in the 2-1 which obviously then brings in the Brentford plus one, is at plus 235. Do you trust Man United to go and win this game but not keep a clean sheet?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No. Not at the odds. I wouldn’t want to get involved. I’ve got a quiz question for you, Flash. Brentford unbeaten in 15 of their last 16 games. Who was their defeat against?

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh, no idea. [inaudible 00:38:38]. Sorry?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Third bottom, Everton.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh, yeah, the away game, 1-0 after four minutes.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Which just goes to show the volatility of football. But yeah, 100% I’d be be with Mark here. I think Man United are too short. They definitely could go out and win. They beat Brentford convincingly a couple of times since Brentford returned to the Premier League. But let’s not forget that obviously Brentford thumped them 4-0 in the reverse fixture in September. So yeah, definitely, Brentford will not be scared of going here. I actually think Mark, maybe should give himself a bit of a pat on the back, because I think he flagged up Brentford’s set pieces against Brighton at the weekend, and two defenders scored, and you actually look, statistically, United have conceded the fifth most goals from set pieces this season. Brentford now joint top for goals from set pieces. So, perhaps look at Brentford’s center backs again, to be prevalent in the opposition area.

Obviously, unlikely Harry Maguire plays, and I think with Martinez and Varane, think, obviously Martinez is a lot shorter than Maguire and De Gea is not the best goalkeeper coming off his line, so I think that could be an area that Brentford maybe try and take advantage of, here, as well. Ivan Toney in fantastic form. So I don’t think there’s any way you can try and bet Man United here at minus 155. I think it’s far too short, and we all know the stats with and without Casemiro. He’s there as, in my mind he’s signed as a defensive midfielder, but I think he’s really shown that he’s a lot more than that, and he is probably more of a box-to-box player and he’s popped up with a lot of crucial goals this season, as well. And without Eriksen pulling the strings alongside him, I think that sort of core of Man United team, isn’t reliable enough to be winning football matches at minus 155. So yeah, with Mark here, I think Brentford on the handicap is the way to go.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, them long throws. I’m just picturing them now, that the boys go forward, and they’re a big side, as well. Brentford have great pace. So even when Man United… I think Man United’s distribution of the ball has been nothing short of shoddy since Casemiro. I think they’re in two minds and not knowing exactly what to do, or they’re over-complicating it.

Listen, Brentford at plus 400, that might throw a few spanners in the works, but I see that McTominay to be booked at any time is at plus 300. Mitch is all over that. But Basar and Mitch both think that Man United win, but both teams score, at plus 235. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Brentford plus one, minus 130. So even if Men United win but they only win by one goal, it’s a push, otherwise you’ve got Brentford and the draw on your side, as well. A little bit of insurance there from Mark O’Haire. Let’s go on to game number six. Stinch, West Ham, Newcastle. Straight away, I look at the bottom. Draw, plus 245. The under is at minus 125, set at two and a half. But if you want to go money line, the home side are plus 250. Newcastle plus 110. I couldn’t split these because West Ham are trying to just be as solid as they can, and Newcastle, on the road, they do put up a few draws.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, this is a match where a low-scoring game is on the menu, I think, between two teams that average a low amount of goals in the matches this season. West Ham’s averaging just 2.2 per game and Newcastle’s averaging just 2.2 per game. And I think it’s worth really sort of focusing on why this is happening for Newcastle, in particular. They’re undefeated in 20 of their last 22 Premier League games. They’ve only lost three games in the Premier League all season, and it’s because it’s built on their fantastic defensive record. Only 19 goals conceded in 27 games. And if you give yourself the platform of being solid defensively, you know that just one goal the other end could be enough to get yourself three points, so that’s how they’re kind of approaching games. And I think it should be commended, really, because Eddie Howe, when he was at Bournemouth in the Premier League, is completely opposite, helter-skelter basketball games all the time, involving Bournemouth.

So they haven’t spent tons and tons of money in terms of marquee signings, if you like. Defensively, they’ve been quite shrewd acquisitions. Premier League experience in Nick Pope and Kieran Trippier, and then Sven Botman who has linked with all sorts in Europe and they managed to attract him to come to Newcastle. Playing Dan Burn who’s not really a left back, at left back. And I think that just gives them more solidity. West Ham got, obviously a much-needed three points to lift themselves out of the relegation zone against Southampton, but obviously it was a narrow win, and I think they’ll see this as an opportunity of picking up at least a point. I don’t think they will play on the front foot either, because I think everybody respects what Newcastle are doing. There’s a reason that they’re up in the top four. They’re third now. It’s not by hook or by crook or fluke. It’s by sheer graft and hard work.

So, again, backed Newcastle under two and a half goals against Man United on Sunday, backed it the week before against Forest, but was outdone by a last-minute penalty. So, just going to do the same again, to be honest. Because as I mentioned, the way Newcastle play, it doesn’t really deviate, and that defensive solidity is impressive. A lot of their games early in the season that went over, was down to Miguel Almiron sprinkling his magic, and that’s kind of dried up. So with Saint Maximin being out for a while, I don’t think he’s quite found his groove yet, either. I think realistically, this is a kind of 0-0, 1-1, or maybe Newcastle edge it 1-0. So yeah, happy to bat unders at minus 125.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, really tight game. West Ham will have to come out. Newcastle will have to defend deep. I just can’t split them, or I certainly can’t split them first half, Mark O’Haire. West Ham are desperate. They obviously got a great win at the weekend, but they weren’t great. Newcastle probably got better players in better form. I just think the two wrongs make a right here, and the draw is a runner at plus 245.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, this is one of my more sort of straightforward selections. Agree with what you’ve both said, really. I’m on the under two and a half goals here, as well. And if you’re backing the unders, obviously the likelihood of a draw comes into play, even more. So, backing unders is never an enjoyable watch. I’m not a really keen under two and a half goals backer, but it just makes sense, really. We backed them in both Sunday matches involving these two teams, isn’t it? And it won and it makes sense to do so again on Wednesday. A big game for both, for obvious reasons.

West Ham looking to put further room between themselves and the bottom three. Newcastle trying to strengthen the top four position. West Ham, six of their seven wins have come at home to teams in the bottom 12, I think it is. But their record against the best teams in the league, is abysmal, and that’s something that David Moyes has a bit of a characteristic around, just cannot get results against elite opposition. West Ham have taken just two points against the top eight this season, and scored three goals in those 10 games, which is just shocking. And as I say, it’s nothing new for David Moyes, but it just suggests that there’s something ingrained in the mindset or the tactical setup from his teams, not just this season but in the past, that they just cannot get over the line or can’t do anything, really, against the better teams. So I suspect he’ll take a pragmatic approach, here, mindful of Newcastle’s resurgence, three wins on the spin, Isak’s introduction’s made a big difference to them, but defensively, as Stinch says, still boast the best defense in the division, and by distance, as well.

I think seven goals better than City’s defense, so they’re not quite as strong as they tend to be at St. James’s, but still, I think sturdy enough to hold this West Ham team at bay. The match and the performance against Southampton, bottom of the table, at the weekend, was pretty underwhelming, considering the players they do have available to them. So yeah, just unders. If you look at the raw numbers as well, involved here, it makes under two and half goals a really strong play. 20 of West Ham’s 27 Premier League games have gone unders, including 12 of 15 at the London Stadium, which is a ridiculous strike rake for a bet which is at minus 125. And for Newcastle, since Boxing Day, they’ve gone unders in nine of 11, and those 11 games averaged 1.55 goals per game. So yeah, expecting it to be tight, tetchy, and low-scoring, and that would bring your draw selection into play as well, Flash.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, nine of 27 combined have gone over. So, only 33%. So if you want to spin it, 66% chance that this goes under, and then you put in that West Ham are desperate to get something out the game, and you got Newcastle, are desperate not to get beat. The official pick for me is halftime draw at plus 105. The under two and a half, minus 125, under two and a half for Stinch, as well. I think it’s 0-0, again, at halftime. There’s a little bit of a… I think, after we do the Q&A, I think that there’s maybe three doubles and a treble of draw half times in three of the six games that we’ve selected. Now it’s time for Q&A, so get yourselves into the chat and I’ll remind you and ask you, please, to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means I’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again.

And by the way, you must be enjoying it because the thumbs up has stayed the same for the last 48 minutes. Also, if you like your odds and your props and everything else, then please go over to betustv.com/odds. And if you find an odds or props that you like, then type in betustv.com/fifty. There’s a $50 free bet waiting for you, there. Okay. Any questions? Although we have covered all six games. Mitch, you’re always busy, man. “Could you ask Stinch why on Earth, with John Brooks reffing a Man United match, why over three and a half cards is at minus 104, with as many as he gives? Why is that number so short?”

Mark Stinchcombe:

I guess he means the line, right? He thinks 3.5 should be higher.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah. Who knows what Mitch means? Who knows? He does come up with loads of winners, but God knows how.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think probably Mark probably better to answer this one. I know he’s a bit more-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Well, he asked you.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. Well, I think if you’re better… No point being a jack of all trades and a master of none, right? And I know Mark is a bit of a card man, so I think he’s better positioned to answer this one.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh, okay. It’s like being in court. I pass that on to my learned friend. There you go, then. Why is it so short? And by the way, is it value? Minus 104 with minimum of four cards? Do we think there’ll be four cards in this game? Quite possibly, with the way that Brentford have good pace and they’re quite niggly in midfield.

Mark O’Hare:

Yeah, I wouldn’t discount it. It’s probably just bang in line that the market’s expecting a kind of bang average Premier League game, because that tends to be, three and a half tends to be the line. I’ve not looked into it properly. I know Brooks has got a reasonable record. I think he’s hit four or more in seven of 11 Premier League games, judging by my spreadsheet, just here. So yeah, he’s a positive appointment, but the only possible solution I can have to it, without really looking in-depth is that, as we talked about Man United at minus 155 to win that game. And if the market expects a kind of one-sided match, the likelihood of a card fest tends to decrease. So you want competitive games for high card counts, but as we also talked about, we do expect it to be a competitive game.

So therefore, perhaps the market is a little bit wrong and we should be looking towards overs here, rather than unders, if you’re backing cards. But yeah, I haven’t got both teams’ records to hand. There was a couple of weird games at the weekend, particularly those Sunday matches, actually. United-Newcastle had the potential to really explode into life, especially in that first half. There was three or four instances where you expected cars to be flashed, but for some reason, the refs kept them in the pocket. Wasn’t just for that game either, but West Ham-Saints as well, two games on Sunday which you targeted for cards, just never materialized. And then that’s the issue with Premier League. It’s just very, very erratic and inconsistent, at times.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay. What about this one, then, Stinch? “Looking at West Ham’s fixtures, do you think that they value the Conference League or do they value Conference League aspirations?”

Mark Stinchcombe:

It’s a very tricky one because last season they showed that when they turned their focus to Europe, with the Europa League, their league form dropped off a cliff. And I feel like this season, they haven’t really recovered. So their favorites to win the Conference League, especially now Villareal and Lazio exited. But I think it will be very, very risky if they focused on it more than the Premier League. We know how much money there is in the Premier League if you stay up, and the wage bill that they’ve got there. So I think they’ll be okay. Actually, I’ll give you my prediction for the three teams, I think that will go down. Southampton, Everton, and Forest. I did quite a lot of research into their remaining fixtures and it was quite convincing that those three teams have the toughest fixtures in terms of the opposition, their relation to where they are in the league.

And they also included some tough runs as well, in terms of two or three games where you wouldn’t expect them to pick up any points. So if you can get a bet where all three can be relegated at a big price, I would maybe look into that. Before the weekend, there was only one firm I could find offering it, but it was plus 1600, they all went down. I’m hoping if a few more price up, there’ll be a bigger bet available. But yeah, it’s obviously a very tough puzzle, because you’ve got nine teams there, scrapping away. But I think if you do dig a bit deeper, I think you can find reasons to get involved with them. And just quickly on Mr. Brooks, he’s refereed Brentford twice, this season. He’s only shown them three cards, so that could be a note of caution there, before going for the overs.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah. Without a doubt. Tell you another note of caution. Pressing the thumbs up button and not pressing the thumbs up button could be, well, a hanging offense. By the way, we were talking about Everton going down. They go to 13th today if they beat Spurs, and we have a boost here at Bet US, and Spurs to win, and Kane to score or assist, is plus 225. Plus 225 for Spurs to win and a Kane goal or assist. Although I’m cheering on Everton, especially at home, I think that Everton, there’s a bit of value to be had there, as well as it being a very, very tight game. Let’s have a little look at all the official pics. Remember, I’ve got one to add, so let me… Ah, my boys are on fire with the official picks! Look at that. I’ve got one to add. No, I haven’t. It’s already there.

Bournemouth double chance at plus 145, Leeds-Forest draw, plus 265, Leicester-Villa, both teams are scoring over, at plus 110, and West Ham-Newcastle draw halftime, at plus 105. Stinch is saving up, Bournemouth-Brighton, over two and half, at minus 125, West Ham-Newcastle under two and a half, at minus 125. Mark O’Haire has gone Bournemouth-Brighton over two and a half, at minus 125, Brentford plus one, minus 130, and West Ham-Newcastle under two and a half, at minus 125. Now, that three doubles and a treble or a little parlay, what about Leeds halftime draw, Chelsea halftime draw, and West Ham halftime draw? I think they’re all three of them are very, very tight games and I think you’ll get two out of three, which means that if you put, say, three doubles and a treble, then you’re going to cover, just by getting one wrong.

So, from Mark O’Haire, from Mark Stinchcombe, from myself, from everybody, I understand that the thumbs up might not be working, to be honest, because it just hasn’t moved, or you’re just all having a pop at me. But we look forward to seeing you again on Thursday. This has been the mashup, for basically week 3, 4, 7, but they’re all going to be enjoying themselves and we’ve got plenty entertainment. So from Mark O’Haire, from Stinch, from myself, everyone at Bet US, everyone in the chat, we look forward to seeing you again, very, very soon. You take care.