Premier League Picks Round 37 | Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

If you are on social media, please follow at BetUS soccer. I’ve already got one guaranteed going on there on Sunday night, which will include Southampton versus Liverpool from Mark O’Haire, So we won’t cover that today, we’ll get the FA Cup final out the way. Oh, by the way, I’ll be doing an FA Cup final preview tomorrow as well. And remember, thumbs up and get yourselves in the chat, get yourselves in the chat means that you can give us a little bit of your wisdom. Now, I’m obviously joined left and right by award winning owner week 37, are you up for any more awards Mark O’Haire?

 

Mark O’Haire:

No, unfortunately not, no.

 

Flash:

I don’t want to be disrespectful, Stinch, obviously, that’s a silly question for you.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Awards.

 

Flash:

What awards? Do you not get like odd compiler awards?

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I don’t think, publicly, no.

 

Flash:

No, publicly, just from your bosses. Now we are going to have four games, there’ll be no records today, but I can tell you that this Tottenham game goes right way, five and oh sweep for your presenter, and I think the whole show will go completely bonkers, we’ll be in plenty, plenty profit. Okay, let’s crack straight on because there’ll be a Q&A at the end, we’ve got four games, I want to put some proper meat on the bone and have a proper chat about this. I know it’s going to be a little bit difficult because obviously that London derby is going to throw all sorts of spanners in the work if Tottenham win. Let’s kick off with the first game then please. It Spurs versus Burnley, and Tottenham have minus 320. Tottenham to win by two is minus 105, Burnley plus 900, I think Leeds have given them more than enough breathing space because it doesn’t look like Leeds are going to get any more points, and the total is under over three goals, a draw is at plus 430, Mark O’Haire, let’s go with this. I know it’s difficult because obviously if Spurs get beat, which we don’t even want to think about, then that’s it, no top four for Spurs.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, you’re right. It is difficult to form, for me, a really strong betting view without knowing what’s happened on Thursday night because of that really. And whilst we’re being fairly confident and optimistic in Spurs ability to get something in the derby, lose, and as you say, top four is out of the running and this game essentially becomes a dead rubber for Tottenham, they’re guaranteed to finish fifth, a draw and they still sit four point shy with two games to play, it looks unlikely to overturn that, but win against Arsenal and absolutely, it’s game on. And you fancy them then to roll over and pull that momentum into this match against Burnley and should be proving too strong. And I think the market is assuming they do win that match against Arsenal because they are a pretty short price to beat Burnley and cover the handicap as well.

 

Mark O’Haire:

But it sounds dull, it sounds boring, I’m just unwilling to sort of make any real commitment because football being football, we’ve had enough examples of it this year in comebacks and sort of upsets. So you just cannot guarantee that Tottenham are going to go into this match with something to play for. So I was on Burnley last week against Aston Villa, didn’t work my way. On the surface of it, it looks like they were well-beaten but they were actually the better team for some parts of that match themselves, enjoyed the lion’s share of all the sort of major data metrics you look for, more shots, a better expected goals effort, but for them, a big, big blow, or potentially a big blow if he does miss out this weekend, James Tarkowski’s injury. So to have him and Ben Mee absent, basically their two leading center halves, would be a huge, huge blow.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And I know Mike Jackson says Tarkowski’s got a chance in returning this weekend, but if he does miss out, you’re looking at Nathan Collins and Kevin Long as your center halves. Now Collins is a center back with real potential, a 21-year-old Irish man who made his name at Stoke, but Long is a squad player at best at Burnley as well, so that’s a real concern coming up against the Spurs front three. And yeah, if I had to pick something right now, I’d obviously be very pro Spurs, but we just don’t know the outcome of that game against Arsenal, there could be a key injury to Kane, Son, Kulusevski, Bentancur, you never know really, so just trying to keep my powder dry until I know what the state of play is between these two teams.

 

Flash:

Okay, so maybe that’ll be an updated selection. So remember, you can go follow @BetUSSoccer, then we’ll give you any updates from Mark O’Haire after the Spurs game. Stinch, the boys in the chat are already saying Burnley to score is at minus 120, which looks value, but I just went Spurs minus one and half, but minus 105, I think they’re too strong, and that’s because I’m a firm believer that they get the job done in the North London derby, and then, it’s just a must win. And also, let’s think, Burnley have been given that breather by Leeds absolutely shooting themselves in the foot.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, definitely. This is one of Burnley’s games in hand. So they’ve got three games compared to Leeds remaining two. After this they go to Villa, and then at home to Newcastle to finish the season. Not the most easiest fixtures but you imagine they’re obviously playing teams with nothing left to play for, so it’s in their favor, so this is probably bit of a free pass, a free hit for them in this game, they wouldn’t expect to get something especially if Spurs are still going for top four.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

So my mind, I think they’ll probably just try and keep it tight and look to maybe nick a point. A point in the grand scheme of things would be absolutely massive because they’re level in points with Leeds right now, so point would take them one point clear of Leeds and give them a little bit of a buffer. Technically, they’re already a point clear because they’ve got a 19… sorry, 21 better goal difference, so getting an extra point here for them would almost be a two point gap. With Leeds, they’ve got Brighton at home, and then they finish away at Brentford, two teams that been winning quite a few games recently so-

 

Flash:

And scoring goals as well.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I mean, we’ll come onto the Leeds game, but I’m not sure, I can’t see them winning either game to be honest, especially with their absentees. So yeah, I think Burnley will think, “Yeah, every point counts here.” So they’ll go there and try and keep this tight, see the goal line there set at three, so I was thinking maybe Tottenham to win in under 3.5 goals, that pays plus 100 and is quite a nice increase on that Spurs minus 300, with Spurs having to play Thursday night and then Sunday, so obviously a quick turnaround, so they might not be going all guns blazing anyway, so yeah, it might be a game that takes them a while to sort of unlock the Burnley’s defense.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

And Mark points out that Burnley are obviously missing some key personnel defensively, we kind of forget maybe that Ben Mee’s been out for a while as well. So yeah, I think it’ll be a sort of a typical game against the team that basically is just going to have their backs against the walls, and it’s can Spurs break them down. So I don’t envisage a four-nil, five-nil victory. So I think that Spurs in under 3.5 plus 100 is probably the way to go. We’d be a bit more confident once we know obviously what happens tonight.

 

Flash:

Yeah, halftime, full-time Spurs is minus 115, two-nil, I’ve got this game at, so it could be three-nil as well if you get the old breakaway 89th minute goal. So I’m glad that the lines at three and not at 2.5 because you could easily see Spurs winning this three-nil. But again, as we’ve said, it all revolves around the London derby. I think that Spurs will be far too strong. And their squad, listen, they can bring on players, they’ve got players on the bench, they’ll be far too strong for Burnley. Okay, so let’s have a little look at the official picks. Only one of us was nutty enough to go in early, I’ve gone in early. Minus 105 for Spurs to win by two clear goals, but we expect Mark O’Haire maybe to come in late after he sees what happens in the London derby, and that will be on our Twitter handle.

 

Flash:

Okay, game number two, it’s Aston Villa versus Crystal Palace, Aston Villa at plus 110, which is a massive price, Crystal Palace at plus 250. The goal line is under over two and a half with the over being at minus 115, the draw is at plus 265, Villa to score twice is at plus 115. I mean, I like Villa, the home-side scored twice here, Stinch, and I like Villa at plus 110, and the reasons are because they’ve got such forward-thinking players, they seem to have a full squad, and it’s almost like the end of the season is going to come at the wrong time for them.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I don’t know. I’ve not been that impressed with Villa, to be honest, I know they gave Liverpool a decent game on Tuesday night, but-

 

Flash:

And they battered Spurs you know. And I know this sounds weird, they got beat four-nil I think it was at home to Spurs, they battered Spurs and they went one-nil down early and then completely battered them, and Spurs just put them to the sword.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, they’re very hot and cold. I think Gerrard, he’s lost more games than he is won so far, I think they’ve only picked up two draws, so basically, they either win or they lose in the current regime. I think this game is just one end of season, nothing either team has to play for. I could see kind of both things happening I could see it’s a basketball style match, but I could also see just some drag affair where both teams just want the season to finish basically. So in my mind, it’s a horrible one to try and bet, and I think there’s much better opportunities elsewhere.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think we [inaudible 00:10:17] quite a lot about Crystal Palace this season, two new managers really here in the Premier League in Vieira and Gerrard, and we have to say that Vieira has done a much better job than I had given the level of investment. You look at the fact that Villa spent a lot of money in the summer, I know that money came from Jack Grealish, but then they went again in January with the signings of Coutinho and Lucas Digne, I think Jacob Ramsey’s maybe been a miss for them in the middle of midfield, hard to play. I was surprised they’d lined up with both Nacamba and Douglas Luiz on Tuesday. I feel as though both of them are very defensive, they don’t offer a lot going forward.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

The young lad that came on, his name escapes me, but he’s looked quite good, and I’ll be interested to see whether he maybe starts here. And I think Mark posed a good point when we discussed the game against Liverpool, that it’s a massive conundrum really for Villa, how do they fit Coutinho, Buendía, Watkins and Ings all in the same side, and I still think that’s something that they’re struggling with and maybe it’ll be solved by naturally Coutinho, his loan finishing so they can move forward with Buendía in behind Watkins and Ings. But Watkins looked like he might have picked up a bit of a niggle, so I’m not sure if he’s a doubt here as well. So yeah, in my mind, avoid this match, concentrate on the other ones.

 

Flash:

Okay, please do not… Obviously my graphics team, they only put up what they read, but there’s no way on this earth that Crystal Palace over half a goal at plus 155, because I tell you what, I’d be stealing the little fellas piggy bank, not just because I think Palace might score, but because it should be minus 150 I would guess, or minus 155, not plus 155. Minus 190 for them not to score. Maybe it’s the other way around, maybe the over half is at minus 190 and the under half is at minus 155. Mark O’Haire, I’m really happy with the way that Villa go forward, it’s just their defense. But against Crystal Palace, give me plus 110, give me plus 115, and Villa scoring twice because I tell you what, them boys upfront, I think I worked out the other day, they’ve only scored eight or nine between them. If you told me that these two were going to play the bulk of the season, I’d have had them in the high to mid-20s.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. I admire your confidence in Aston Villa and I’ve been quite critical of them in recent weeks. I thought they played pretty well against Liverpool in midweek, created chances and played their part in what was a really decent watch, but I’m not willing to sort of commit my money to them at plus 110 in all honesty. And I’ve said it a few weeks now, that the market seems to have a love affair with Aston Villa and Steven Gerrard, they’re they’re overestimating them in my book really.

 

Mark O’Haire:

But I just think it’s quite fascinating from a psychological perspective for these players who will have raised themselves for a home gaming against Liverpool with a big crowd, a big TV audience under the lights, to then go again, a couple of days later at Villa Park against Crystal Palace just doesn’t have the same appeal for the players end of season. I do wonder whether that kind of has to be taken into account, a bit of a drop off in performances, they’re clearly not going to be quite as kind of up for the game against Palace as they would’ve been against Liverpool really.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And I think Palace are coming into this off a full midweek, well-rested, well-prepared. So I guess the question is who wants it more, we don’t know, but Palace have won their last two, admittedly not pulling up any trees in either of those games, but I think they have shown a bit more consistency across the whole season to be more trusted than Aston Villa, plus Palace are just one point off the top half, and that brings a certain amount of kudos, and I think Palace are aiming for the top… their best finishing in the Premier League for quite a few years, actually too, so.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah, it feels like a bit of a trappy game, but in terms of the prices and if I was going to get involved, I saw over two and a half goals, I think it was minus 115, it’s copped in seven of Villa’s last 10 now. And as Stinch has said numerous times now in the last couple of weeks, goals tend to rise at the end of the season. There’s not a huge amount left to play for these two who are in mid-table obscurity, they should be able to play with a bit of freedom.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And I looked a bit further actually, if you… Rather than sort of take the minus 115, you can actually take over two and a half goals and BTTS at plus 125, which feels like a really big leap actually from minus 115 as well. So yeah, clearly the market favors Villa, it suggests that Palace probably won’t score here, but I kind of disagree, I think they’re more than capable of getting a goal and playing their part in a kind of end of season runaround, really, for both these two teams. But yeah, just nothing to play for here, so I was kind of left it in the end.

 

Flash:

Yeah. At this stage of the season, I’ll go with the home side every single day, especially when they’ve got players that need to be scoring goals. I’ve just added by the way, I’ve just added on the official sheet that I’m going with Villa team total over 1.5 plus 115, I see Villa scoring twice. So I mean, that just basically, can you just put up their numbers again please? Because I just want to make sure that I’ve got the right number there, over 1.5, yeah, okay. So Villa to score twice is plus 115 that pays for my… If it ends up being two-two, so be it but I still make sure I win money, but Villa scoring twice against Palace, I’m all over it, I’m so all over it, I just can’t rely really on Villa not letting in… Listen, this is like Villa two-nil, Palace ain’t bothering. One of last one of the last home games of the season, that’s it. Come on Villa.

 

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because if I’m on my own again, then, oh, there’s a shock. Aston Villa money line plus 110 and I’ve also added the team total over 1.5, I mean, I wouldn’t put anyone off of Villa to win in over 1.5. I wrote down two-nil again, so it’s just the home side for me.

 

Flash:

Let’s move on. Remember that we will have a Q&A at the end before the best bets. But this is a massive game for the home side, it’s Leeds versus Brighton. Leeds have got more than one leg in the trap door, Leeds are at plus 140, and it’s a must wing game, draw no bet for the away side is plus 110, can you believe that? Brighton have been one of the form sides in the last six weeks plus 190 on the back of beaten Man United four, it could have been six. A draws at plus 260 under or over is at two and a half. Surely Mark Stinchcombe, over two and a half at minus 115 is guaranteed because Leeds, they’ve got to go forward, they’re showing so much nervousness, if that’s such a word, because they’re making silly mistakes and their silly mistakes are ending in red cards.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. An awful lack of discipline. They set the record this week for the most ever cards in a Premier League season, they set the record against Leeds when Luke Ayling was sent off and others picked up cards. And then against Chelsea, they actually hit the century. So they’ve picked up over 100 cards this season in the Premier League, which is astonishing really, with two games left to go. As I say, broke the record, and yeah, the lack of discipline is massively costing them. Their remaining game after this, I think it’s away at Brentford. And yeah, I mean, don’t know where the goals come from, and then that’s further made worse by the fact that their players, they’re picking up suspensions and they’re having to rely on youngsters or fringe first team players that some of them don’t look fit or maybe not ready for the fight or the battle, so there’s absolutely no way you can back Leeds in this game as favorites.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

If Brighton’s name was, I don’t know, Leicester or West Ham, I think Brighton would be favorites here. I think that the name is kind of driving against Brighton a little bit, or maybe a bit of motivation, the fact that Brighton don’t have anything to play for. But as we said during the week, when Everton were minus money away at Watford, nobody was back in Everton at those prices just because their name’s Everton and they need to win essentially. Don’t ever be fooled by the fact that just because the team needs to win, that you should bet on them, don’t ever fall into that trap. I wanted to try and do the same as did with the Leeds Chelsea game basically, side with the opposition, so oppose Leeds and look for goals.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

The only problem I have with Brighton, a bit similar to Chelsea, probably a lot worse though with Brighton is I just find it difficult to trust, we talk a lot about, they play good football we’re full of praise for what Graham Potter has done, and the way they play, et cetera. I think they just easily can let us down time and time again. I think not so long ago, they went seven games without scoring and that included nil-nil against Norwich. In my mind, you just can’t trust them. So I was looking for something pro Brighton and pro goals, but then as you say, over two and a half goals just don’t complicate it in my mind. As you say, Leeds are going to need to attack, and I think that’s going to leave space for Brighton.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

And if you are Brighton, as I say, we can’t really trust them in front of goal. Surely, we can trust them against this Leeds back line that will just give them tons and tons of space. Mac Allister’s playing quite well, Trossad’s playing well, and they’re helping the burden really, of Welbeck and Maupay that kind of it’s been left to them to score the goals. So I think Brighton could score three themselves here and if it’s cops like that, but with over two and a half, I’m surprised the line’s not set at three, given the jeopardy and the fact Leeds would need to attack from the off, making it quite basketball-ish type of game in my mind, 18 of Leeds last 22 games gone over two and a half goals, Brighton’s last four have gone over 2.5, I know we don’t generally associate Brighton with an overs team, but I think we can ignore that when we come to this time of the season, when we know the goals rise in May, and also the fact that Leeds, it’s imperative that they get three points here, nothing less than that will be what they want. I think they could malfunction again in front of probably a packed home crowd.

 

Flash:

And Brighton can finish go eighth with a win here. Brighton went to Wolves. Wolves are far, far superior to Leeds at this stage of the season, and Brighton crushed them. Man United go to the Amex and Brighton were just so, so dominant. There’s a few bets here I like Mark O’Haire, And first of all, the 190. The 190 is, I cannot believe that it’s not plus 145, right? Then I’ve got draw no bet at plus money as well for a side that are not letting goals in, but are scoring goals and Brighton at plus 155 to score two.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yes, couldn’t agree more. This is my best bet from the Premier League this weekend and probably for a while actually, but I’ll be taking Brighton plus 110 and the handicap, in the pick [inaudible 00:21:01] for many, many reasons, which you guys already outlined, but to start with, with Leeds, they get Liam Cooper back in midweek, a big bonus to have him back playing at center half. But then-

 

Flash:

I agree. That’s a big bonus for Brighton to be honest.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Well, he’s better than what Leeds have already, and he is the captain and Patrick Bamford due back at some point, he’s not going to be match fit, but he’s due back this weekend, which is a big bonus. You don’t lose Dan James to suspension, as well as Luke Ayling, Jack Harrison goes off injured, he’ll be missing, Raphinha, who has being played in sort of a right wing-back role when they played a five man defense against Chelsea, he went off with cramps and he didn’t look in a good way, so he’s now got a couple of days to try and recover, not ideal really.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And yeah, I mean, we’ll talk about motivation, and I think if you look at those prices, it’s just the Brighton season is over, and that’s far away from the truth in reality, because if you listen to anything Brighton connected, it will tell you that Brighton are gunning for basically their best ever finish in the English league, they’ve never finished this high in a top flight campaign, and that’s a huge badge of honor to try and aim towards, not just that the financial benefits it brings by finishing the top half, but they’re playing now with confidence, they’re playing with swagger, they’re playing with a real belief that they can go on and achieve that, and it’s something quite historic for Brighton.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And we’ve seen in recent weeks, four wins in six, one defeat in seven, the one defeat was against Man City. They also have the fourth best away record in the Premier League this season, they’ve lost just four times playing away from home all season. And only three teams have lost fewer away games, only four teams have conceded fewer goals away from home. So this is a team that loves going on the road and playing teams. I just think with those sort of stats in mind, they’ve lost four times all season to go to a Leeds team who are desperate, with huge selection problems, and appalling ill discipline issues in the minute as well, licking their wounds after two heavy defeats, the desperation involved, the momentum and motivation in the Brighton sort of ranks, I think it all comes together quite nicely to get plus money on the draw no bet, that really does appeal to me. I’m expecting my money back at worst.

 

Flash:

I bet you are. And that’s the other thing, we got take acknowledgement here that Brighton have really turned their season around. They one win in nine through the mid part of the season, but we were saying they were playing so well, but we couldn’t rely on them because they just weren’t scoring goals. Now, I mean some of their midfield and their runners and they’re just full of energy, they’ve got players coming off the bench. I mean, Solly March, he’s just like a… Because he ain’t one of the big names, he does so much for the team, that’s what Brighton are, they are a team. They can go eighth, if they win and Wolves lose, they will go eighth in the league, which is amazing because I remember when they were like 17th or 16th, it’s like they’ve really turned it around and I agree.

 

Mark O’Haire:

I remember when they’re in the fourth tier.

 

Flash:

No, I mean this season. I mean, listen, my first ever league goal as a professional footballer was against Brighton at the Goldstone Ground, so let’s not go back too far. Leeds, I’ve got tension, I’ve got nervousness, I’ve got all sorts of problems there, Brighton I’ve got full of confidence, momentum, and the team, the opposition have got to come onto you. I think Brighton at plus 190 is massive. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I think we’re all near enough on the same page. Over two and a half at minus 115 from Stinch, that’s because he thinks Brighton can score three. Brighton draw no bet for me at plus 110, is an absolute giveaway unless Leeds really turn up and Brighton just flip flops. If they play in flip flops, that’s it.

 

Flash:

Brighton drawn no bet plus 110 for Mark O’Haire. Oblivion Sports, which is Eric from Ireland, plus 120 Leeds over two and a half cards. Well, I tell you what, that’s always one of those where you’re closing the stable door after the horse is bolted because over two and a half cards, that’s just like one red for leads, which they’ve had in both of their last two games.

 

Flash:

All right, let’s go, third game. I’m surprised this game was on here to be honest, it’s Newcastle versus Arsenal Newcastle at plus 340, Arsenal at minus 115. Arsenal are always around that price that just sort of sucker you in. And again, as Mark O’Haire has said before, this Arsenal performance could well be completely different because of, obviously, what goes on in the North London derby. The draw is at plus 240, under over is two and a half, looks like an overs game. Stinch, you can take us away here because Newcastle, Arsenal, I’m not so sure I know how this is going to go.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’ll take the over Arsenal half a goal at minus 110, please.

 

Flash:

Okay. Well, straight away.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Is that available? [inaudible 00:25:56]

 

Flash:

Arsenal just to score at minus 110.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. It looks a big price to me.

 

Flash:

What do you think it should be?

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I don’t know, minus [inaudible 00:26:06]-

 

Flash:

Do you think that Arsenal is over one and a half?

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

It could well be, it could well be. I like the look of the Arsenal price here, assuming that they don’t win against Tottenham tonight, basically, so fourth is still all to play for. Newcastle, not a massive fan. I know they’ve been picking up results, but I feel like they’ve played… I feel like in the games they’ve picked up results, they’ve needed the results more than the opposition. So again, a motivation factor there. Up until the first goal, they played okay last week against City, but then, in my mind, they just gave up and they weren’t interested. And yeah, I think the Arsenal motivation factor is clear here, I’m surprised that the Arsenal Premier League odds aren’t a bit surer. If Arsenal don’t win tonight, this price could tumble a bit further in my mind, I think it could get down maybe minus 130, something like that, because yes, this will be even more important for them to win.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

They’ve got a really good record against Arsenal, they’ve won the last six all to nil. And don’t get me wrong, I know obviously only one of them’s under Eddie Howe I believe, and then not all under Mikel Arteta, but still a lot of the players remain. And also, I feel like the way Arsenal played football, it just obviously lends itself to playing against Newcastle. I know Newcastle will be in front of their home fans, but I think their home fans will have a party just because they’ve stayed up and not really fussed about actually what happens on the pitch.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think we all know that there’s going to be probably lots of ins and outs at Newcastle this summer. A lot of the players that will play for Newcastle in this game, I think that might be their last ever home game, and I think they’ll just go through the motions essentially. So I think this is all for Arsenal really, but if they do win against Spurs on Thursday night, I wouldn’t place this bet essentially because, yeah, the motivation factor for Arsenal will be a lot lower.

 

Flash:

So you say about motivation for Arsenal, I don’t know where their leaders are coming from to be honest. Newcastle double chance at plus 100, I quite like that, I’m not sure that Newcastle will get beat, especially after telling us that Newcastle or unbeaten in the last six games against Arsenal. Mark O’Haire, very tricky game this, please ignore the Arsenal total goals because that’s got to be under over one and a half.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. It is a tricky game for all the reasons we’ve talked about with Tottenham, Burnley really. If Spurs were to win… Sorry, if Arsenal were to win, obviously they’re guaranteed top four and means they’ll take their foot off the pedal and a smash doesn’t mean a huge amount for them either. But what’s quite interestingly too, is Spurs play Burnley before this match too, so regardless of what happens on Thursday night, Arsenal will know exactly what’s required going into this match with Spurs playing Burnley. So there’s a lot of sort of permutations involved coming into this game, which I think need to probably be considered and probably why betting now might not be wise for me anyway, and I’m quite happy to-

 

Flash:

Well, it depends which way you want to go, isn’t it? If you are a Spurs believer, then you want to be on Arsenal now. If you’re an Arsenal believer, surely you want to be on Newcastle double chance that plus 100.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Sorry to interject. But I think you just wait till full-time in the Spurs Arsenal game tonight and then place your bet-

 

Flash:

Do the books not move that quick, no.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Well, I think even if, say, Arsenal went from minus 115 to minus 120, you’d still take that. They’re not going to move it significantly enough. I think punters nowadays, because there are markets available for future matches, they’re not just priced out one round at a time, you can get on before they change too dramatically.

 

Flash:

I know, I agree. I agree.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I’d be prudent and I would wait till full-time tonight to make a decision.

 

Flash:

Okay. I mean, it’s going to be unbelievable because I think that Arsenal, Spurs, Man City, Liverpool, I think that they’re all just keep going at least for this weekend. Anyway, Mark O’Haire, sorry to interrupt. Okay, Newcastle versus Arsenal, are we going to go with anything, or are you favoring anything, or can you give me a conundrum, what a great word early on a Thursday, of Arsenal get beat. If Arsenal get beat, you want to be with them?

 

Mark O’Haire:

Well, it’s complicated, isn’t it? Because look, if Spurs were to beat Arsenal, how many times have we seen Spurs get a big result on Thursday and then flop a couple of days later when they’re expected to produce the goods? And I’m not saying Burnley are going to go to Tottenham and beat them, but they could easily go and take a point now. I’m just unwilling to really get involved until I know what’s at stake here. What I would say is Newcastle have been competitive at St. James’ Park, not just under Eddie Howe, but also under Steve Bruce, going back to last season as well. They have been quite awkward opponents.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And Trippier and Wilson are due back this weekend as well, which is a big bonus for them. Final home game of the season. They’ll be keen to sign off in style. They’ve been capable and not just competitive, but they’ve been scoring goals against most teams who’ve gone to Tyneside this season as well. And yeah, it’s a free midweek for Newcastle, a lot of time to rest and prepare, Arsenal’s full focus and energy is going to be on that North London derby. I don’t really want to back them at minus money to be honest, regardless of what they need to do. So if anything, I’d be pro Newcastle and pro goals, but I’m just going to leave it.

 

Flash:

Matt Barrott says that Arsenal have beaten Newcastle 16-nil since the start of 2019, 16-nil, that’s completely bonkers that, isn’t it? But again, I can’t trust Arsenal. I just can’t trust them, I just don’t see the leaders, and especially if the pressure’s on as well. Okay, let’s have little look at the official bets, there must be one, otherwise it wouldn’t be on here. Arsenal money line minus 115, and Stinch thinks that could get as low as minus 135, so if you want… Maybe you stick it in a parlay and add that as your last leg, and then, obviously, you’re going to get the value. And maybe if you have got a parlay going on it, you can then just bet Newcastle double chance and you’re not going to lose.

 

Flash:

Okay, it’s time for the Q&A, so make sure you get yourself fingertips typing. I’m going to remind you, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook and I’d like you to subscribe to the BetUS soccer channel and get us closer to 5,000, where I think we’re getting there today, I’m that confident. Also, I’d like you to ring the bell, that means that we’ll notify you and you never miss any content again, on the soccer channel, and remember there’s other channels for other sports as well.

 

Flash:

And we’ve got so much coming out. We’ve got the summer sports of golf, tennis, and the triple crown. We had the Kentucky Derby last week, now we will be going on to the Preakness. Kentucky Derby, just a quick one, we gave you second, third, and fourth. The only reason we didn’t give you the winner was because it wasn’t in the race, it wasn’t in the race until Friday lunchtime and we’d already done it, and the outsider of the party, the longest shot since 1913, so 109 years. And that just means I’m now called Unlucky Alf. If you are on social media, then please follow @BetUSSoccer and there will be updates, I think Mark O’Haire is going to give you one on Sunday, could even get involved in the Tottenham, Burnley game as well, Stinch, he always loves it, so just make sure you give them a follow. Okay, the first question Mike saying, “Do Leeds or Burnley go down?”

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Leeds.

 

Flash:

Mark.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Thinking leads as well. The goal difference is a handicap as well as the players missing.

 

Flash:

Yeah, definitely. Definitely a handicap, I’m just not sure I can go near either of them. Jack Simpson says, “Can you give an opinion on Everton versus Brentford?” Thought it was a banana skin, Stinch.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. I wanted to kind of side with Brentford, but I think we’ve seen Everton have been very pragmatic of late. They’ve managed to keep the door shut, albeit with Jordan Pickford picking up man to match displays against both Chelsea and Leicester. And then, obviously, we see their easiest game of… They obviously won away at Lester, won at home to Chelsea, and then obviously, easiest game was against Watford, and they flopped as a massive, massive favorite, so you just don’t know what you’re going to get with Everton.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

But I think it’s worth for remembering that one of Lampard’s first game in charge was at home to Brentford in the FA Cup, and Everton won four-nil, I think, or four-one. So yeah, you’re completely right with the banana skin, I just don’t know how Everton are going to set up, whether they’re going to set up to be tight and contained, I mean the league table, they’re two points clear of Leeds, but I don’t think they’ll be taking anything for granted. So yeah, I think they could once again, just set up to be tight and at very worst, they might pick up a point, but at Goodison, they’ve been very good, I think it really makes a difference having that home support.

 

Flash:

Okay. There’s a couple here. Matt Barrott says, “Mark O’Haire, Man City and both teams to score against West Ham.” Again, I thought that that was just a tricky old game to be honest because I thought that, as weird as it might sound, I thought it might end in a draw or I just don’t know what I’m going to get from Man City, because it’s like, they just demolish sides within five attempts.

 

Mark O’Haire:

Yeah. They’re looking good, aren’t they? So yeah, I wouldn’t put anyone off that in all honesty. So City’s issues at the minute, there’s no Walker, no Diaz, no Stones, without Walker’s recovery pace, that’s a big miss, Diaz is pretty dominant in the middle, and now, Laporte and possibly Fernandinho have been injured as well. So you got a potential center back partnership of Rodri and Nathan Ake lining up this weekend, which doesn’t exactly fill you of confidence. And West Ham are largely injury free, had a full week to rest and prepare, they’ve had a really hectic period with Europe recently, so they’ll be well-rested and well-prepared now for this match. West Ham have actually scored in every home game this season, they scored three against Chelsea and Liverpool, obviously beat them both, so they’ll fancy their chances, London Stadium crowd will surely be behind them too, so yeah.

 

Mark O’Haire:

But ultimately, City are looking so ruthless at the minute that apart from that defense, everywhere else in the team is looking top notch. So West Ham home games average 3.06 goals, 78% of those have featured both teams scoring. So yeah, I wouldn’t put anyone off it. I think City probably will win the match, but I do expect West Ham to cause some problems and potentially get a goal themselves.

 

Flash:

Yeah. I’ve just got to make an apology to earlier and everybody else, I’ve got my bananas mixed up with me oranges. It’s basically Newcastle haven’t beaten Arsenal in their last six attempts, not Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six attempts. Okay, yes, Shamil, any tips on the FA Cup final. I’ll be doing a show tomorrow live, take me about 15 minutes, it’s me and you. So basically, I’ll be here on my own. We will run through all of the… I’ve got four bets that I think, and I think it could be a long afternoon for both sides to be honest, I think we go all the way and we will see penalties, but again, I’ll break that down tomorrow.

 

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks. And while I’m doing that, there’s a little late one come in at the back post [inaudible 00:37:31] says, “Spurs versus Burnley over 10 corners.” Boys, I’m going to leave the graphic up, but if you want to say over 10 corners, Spurs versus Burnley, and while you’re doing that, Mark has gone for draw no bet for Brighton at plus 110, as I have Tottenham at minus 1.5 at minus 105, Stinch, Leeds and Brighton over two and half at minus 115, jumped in on the Arsenal money line at minus 115, because he expects that could well be around the minus 130, minus 135. Villa, money line at plus 110. I’ve also gone with Villa team total over one and a half at plus one and a half. Boys, do we see Spurs and Burnley over 10 corners or not interested?

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

I can’t see any prices on site, but it’s not something I want to back to be honest because I think it might be a backs-to-the-wall job for Burnley, so then you just think it’s just Tottenham contributing to the corner. So I’d rather back our Tottenham individual corner. So if Tottenham lines maybe 5.5, I would rather back over Tottenham corners than the match total.

 

Flash:

Okay, Jonathan Nelson says Liverpool to win the FA Cup, they’re minus 190, Jonathan, so you didn’t have to get up early for that selection. Lads, before we go, it is the FA Cup final, used to be the number one game that we look forward to, it’s at the Mecca, used to be the only live game. Just give us a quick Chelsea Liverpool prediction, please, Stinch.

 

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think you’re right, Flash. It could be tensing and tight. Maybe a one-one overall. I think it could be a real battle in the midfield, Kovacic is likely to be missing, and Chelsea have failed to win six games that he’s missed with four defeats recently, whereas they won think they won four or five that he has started. Liverpool maybe without Fabinho. Yeah, he’s missed, I think, 17 games this season, Liverpool are unbeaten in those including wins at Madrid, and Man United, as well as draw V City. So yeah, it could be a big midfield battle but they’ve drawn three games a season, so I think, again, another tight game.

 

Flash:

Mark O’Haire. I know you are-

 

Mark O’Haire:

Similar thoughts really, but I give Liverpool the edge. I still think they’re arguably the best team on the planet right now. I think they’ve got the best squad, I think they’ve got the best game changes off the bench as well. I think that front three against that Chelsea defense, which has been creaking quite a lot in recent weeks could be tone difference really, but they have shown signs of fatigue in recent weeks and the last opponents of Villa, Villareal, Spurs, Everton have put them under more pressure the most.

 

Mark O’Haire:

And Chelsea have caused them problems in all three of those matches, arguably the second of the three was sort of a dominant Liverpool display, but they’ve proven that they can get up for the big occasion, despite all the off-field issues, going to Real Madrid and dominating that match was really quite impressive. And yeah, I think it could be fairly long evening, so I’d always have the draw on the side, whatever I take, but I would be pro Liverpool.

 

Flash:

Yeah. Well, I’ll see you tomorrow anyway, the people in the chat. So listen, have a great weekend. Remember, for some of us, if Spurs win tonight and they win handsomely, it’s been a five and oh sweep at the right time, that’s almost getting a winner in the 89th minute. Because remember this is match day 37, we’ll only see these two beautiful babies for another two times and then it’s done. So make sure we go out on a high Benny Eight, Chelsea fan, “Liverpool should win and both teams to score.” Not so sure about that Benny. But anyway, from everyone at BetUS, from Mark O’Haire, and from Mark Stinchcombe, you have a great weekend and take care.