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Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS soccer channel. I’m Flash and it’s Serie A show. It’s match day 13, which is unlucky for some and let’s hope it’s unlucky for the books. Now, we are your home of soccer betting, and also we are America’s favorite sportsbook. So why don’t you combine them both and subscribe. Also, ring the bell means you’ll never miss any content again.

I’ve got to remind you, on Monday we’ve got Serie A, LaLiga and Bundesliga shows. On Tuesday we’re going to go through groups A, B, C, D in one show, and groups E, F, G, and H in another show. Both will contain outrights, both will contain an opinion on the golden boot as well. I only learned yesterday there’s a golden ball as well, golden gloves. Anyway, talking of golden, I’ve got the queen of Serie A here, and I’ve got the prince of numbers, odd numbers of winners, and the digger. I don’t think anyone digs any deeper than Mattie. So welcome, Mattie.

Also, if you’re on social media, then please follow @betustv. There’s a link in description as well, that if you press that, join, they’ll send you your name and any number. If I pull it out the hat, then we’ll get you a shirt. Also, we’re going to have records, a Q&A. So let’s crack straight on.

Mina, we’ve got Napoli absolutely running away with the top, and we’ve got unbelievable games. I think Serie A really, really come up trumps this weekend. We’re pitching two good sides against each other in three different games.

Mina:

Yeah, it’s so true. We’re all so excited to obviously watch the Derby d’Italia, one of the most famous games scheduled in Serie A calendar. Obviously, the Rome Derby could not be more dramatic, especially after Roma coach Jose Mourinho took a pop at Lazio for how much money they spent. FYI, they spent 40 million in the transfer market. What he conveniently forgot is he’s got the third highest wages in Serie A, even more than Napoli and Milan. And that’s when we move to at Atalanta against Napoli, should be a tremendous game. I’m so excited.

I actually got really confused about what to pick here because there’s just so many good matches, so many opportunities to make money, and a lot of what I think could be tricky places to go because for me at least, I feel like some games haven’t gone my way, and Udinese continue, continue to disappoint me.

Flash:

All right. Mattie, I don’t want to open up a sore wound, but you’ve probably had your worst run in two years. You’re still in profit. Now, can you help people here who also go through these barren spells, because do you change anything, do you dig deeper? Because sometimes, do you feel as if you could dig too deep to try and get yourself out of it?

Mattie:

I feel like a lot of times when I find a trend that works, I stay on it for too long and then eventually the books start to adjust and that trend starts to lose. I feel like there’s a couple trends that I stayed on too long. I think it’s really about going back to the basics and a lot of times having a short memory and going back and just looking at a slate and act like you don’t know anything about it and just look at the numbers, and then put what you know with those numbers, and go from there.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the records. This is the only show by the way, where, doesn’t matter how big or how small, all three of us are actually in profit. That means that the show’s at 2.93. I think that we’re really going to kick on after the World Cup. So now it’s just about parity and just keep nicking a few shekel, denari, lira, euros, whatever your currency is.

Parlay and prop of the week. We have actually got a prop of the week this week, and it is -105 or around that so we can actually start to prepare that as well. Listen, we’ve got seven games, so get yourselves in the chat. You know you’re well knowledgeable, we want you to share your thoughts. But let’s kick off with the first game because whew, did this team let us down over the last couple of weeks.

Udinese at -180. Has the pin finally burst? I think it’s only one win in five. Lecce, +535. And people have got, remember it’s Lecce who went to Napoli and got a draw. Udinese -1 is at +100. Udinese scored twice, -145. The draw is at +305. Mina, you can kick us off here because Udinese, I’m not too sure that they’re going to kick on.

Mina:

I honestly don’t know how what’s going on with Udinese because I really did feel like this was a team that was doing so well, that substituted exceptionally brilliantly, especially they were a team that even if they weren’t winning by the 70th minute, things would be shaken up. They would introduce different players, and bam, they would score more goals. Their style of play was so controlling. They just managed to really counterattack to brilliance. They were vertical, they were compact, they were speedy. Right now they’re none of these things.

I think it was a shock when they couldn’t do anything against Torino and obviously last week again. And now they face Lecce, and you think to yourself, “Come on, it’s Lecce.” Lecce have really, really been struggling in the league so far this season. They’ve failed to win in 11 of their last 12 matches. I know they managed that draw against Napoli, but that was the Napoli side that had at the time used nearly all their substitutes in the game, so it wasn’t their top players.

But I don’t know which way to go in this. I want to bet on Udinese because for sure they are a much, much better side. But then I think to myself, Lecce really is a team that knows how to defend itself. I think Hjulmand in the midfield is just a fantastic player. He runs and does everything that there needs to be done in that middle, and he will try alongside Lecce to really stop Udinese having any space to cause mistakes really, to get the goals. But honestly, I want to stay away from them because they’re so unpredictable.

Flash:

Mattie, the draw at +305 is big but I think it’s big for a reason. Do Udinese bounce back here? Because Lecce, you know they’re defensively sound, but the problem I have with that is that if Udinese do score and they not scored many goals in their first half, but if they do, then basically they could get themselves right back on track here, free points, maybe clean sheet and a comfortable win.

Mattie:

Yeah. I actually think this is a good spot for Udinese to bounce back. The record in the last five or six games hasn’t looked very good but you do have to break it down a little bit. They took a draw against Lazio, a draw against that Atalanta. The bad loss that they had was to Torino, 2-1. That was their last home game and then last week of course, 0-0 against Cremonese, which was very disappointing for them. I think outside of that Cremonese game, and Torino, although they lost the Torino, I do think Torino’s a good side. Some days they click, a lot of days they don’t but they definitely were clicking in that game.

I think you just have to look at these numbers and break down. On the road this season, Lecce are only scoring 0.67 goals a game and only 0.75 games all season, home and away. On the flip side of that, you have Udinese who’s scoring two goals a game at home. They’re conceding less than one goal. I’d definitely like Udinese to score twice in this game. I’m not sure if Lecce score or not. I think if Udinese can get a goal in the first half, which they actually have scored in the first half at home and two thirds of their home games this season. They only have one loss at home and two draws this season as well. I think this is a really good spot for Udinese to use their home field advantage here and get three points out of this. And I think this game could get out of hand. If it’s 1-0 to Udinese at halftime, I definitely think this -1 should hit. I see this being a push at the very worst.

Flash:

Yeah, we call that a free hit. Let’s have a little look. Mina, did you want to say something on this game?

Mina:

I was saying under two and a half is -105 and there’s been under two and a half scored and nine of Lecce’s last 11 games. Do you think that’s worth going to? Because I could see this being a 2-0 for Udinese. It’s about whether or not anyone thinks that… or a 1-1 potentially.

Flash:

I looked at both teams to score. I looked at the over two and a half, thinking it might be 2-1, 3-1, but I also thought Lecce might not score and it’s +120. That also brings in the 0-0, Mattie.

Mattie:

Yeah, it’s just conflicting numbers here because like Mina said, the under numbers for Lecce are really good but for Udinese they’re not very good. The last five home games have gone over two and a half for them. So I don’t know, it’s conflicting numbers there.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks, because remember, this game’s on Friday so don’t get caught out. If you are going to get involved in this, hope you’ve picked the right way and it sets you up for the weekend because it’s just Udinese free hit -1, at +100 for Mattie.

Let’s move on to game number two. This is my game, and it’s Salernitana versus Cremonese. Salernitana +115. Salernitana going for free straight wins against the Cremonese side. No wins in five, sitting in rock bottom of Serie A. Salernitana, if the result, just one result goes the right way and they win, they go into the top 10. This is a side that a lot of people thought would be in the bottom three or bottom four. The draw is at +250 and under over two and a half goals at -115.

Mina, Salernitana are too strong for Cremonese, I believe, but Cremonese, they’re happy with a clean sheet and one point last week, but I fancy Salernitana just bully these.

Mina:

They should. When you look at the names on the pitch you just have to say that Salernitana just have a lot more technique and beauty within their side. It’s really interesting because I thought they were obviously fantastic against Lazio. This was a team, Lazio, that had only conceded five goals in 11 matches and three against Salernitana. The way that they put Candreva in the middle and then chose the wide players and how everything just worked so well together, you could tell that Davide Nicola, their coach had really researched Lazio and how to destroy them.

Does he do that when they play teams that are not Juventus and Lazio? Because against Juventus, once again, they were spectacular. It’s baker’s belief because then you see how they were against Lecce and they were terrible to watch, really terrible. So I’m not entirely sure who Salernitana are. To me, it feels like they raised their game when they play their big boys and they know the camera’s on them. But when it’s the likes of Cremonese or Lecce, I don’t know if they’re going to manage to raise their game to that level.

Obviously Cremonese have had a really hard time in this, but they have drawn their last three away matches. And there’s a part of me that just thinks this is going to be another draw. But then Salernitana always usually defeat Cremonese in their last games. They either defeat them or manage a draw. So they’re undefeated in the last nine of 10 matches against Cremonese. It’s got to be a draw, right?

Flash:

No. No. It’s got to be a home win at +115. Big odds, I just see it. But them being too strong, the crowd gets in front. And the big problem you’ve also got here, Mattie, is that Cremonese, the way they play, they go 1-0 down, they won’t be able to respond.

Mattie:

Yeah. Well, what’s interesting about this game is something that we actually haven’t talked about this year is how much better Cremonese easy have been playing on the road than they have at home. What’s really interesting about this is they’re scoring 1.17 goals on the road and only 0.3 at home. They had the same goals conceded number home and away. But both teams, the score is hitting at 83% on the road compared to 33% for them at home. And it’s 50% for Salernitana.

So to me, this could be a sneaky over game actually, because I definitely think both teams score here. I think Salernitana definitely has the upper hand on the ability to win this game. So I think they’re more likely to score two in this game. But I’d definitely like just both teams to score, which the price isn’t really playable straight. But that over two and a half is really interesting and I’m just a little bit iffy on picking aside for this game. I don’t know if I want to trust Salernitana yet.

To contradict what I just said, we’ve only seen them score more than one goal in back-to-back games once in the last two seasons. And that was earlier this year, I think against Empoli and then Juventus back-to-back. But Cremonese also have three straight draws on the road. This to me is a very tricky matchup. And I don’t know, outside of playing both teams to score somehow, I don’t know how I would play this.

Flash:

Well, Cremonese have let in 22 goals and they’ve only scored nine. Salernitana 16, but you look at the personnel and the match-ups, and they turn up. And if they are focused, they win and they pick up the three point that can potentially take them into the top 10, which again people have thought that I was to totally mad if I’d have said that in week one, two, three, four of the season.

Official picks, I’m not complicating it. Been on a good run recently, don’t like to talk about it because I want to hex it, but Salernitana money line at +115.

Mina:

Did you say you don’t want to talk about it?

Flash:

No, no, no. I don’t want to talk about it, Mina. I don’t want to talk about it.

Mina:

Yeah, well I just want to tell everyone that you’ve talked about it endlessly before-

Flash:

Hey, that’s a personal conversation. I’m just trying to… [inaudible 00:13:30]. Don’t talk about our personal conversations. Hold on, you’re chirping in as well, are you?

Mina:

No, he was being nice about you.

Mattie:

I am. I am. Flash, I can’t say anything unless they beat you, so you have bragging rights this week. We’ll see what happens this week.

Flash:

Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I like that but you know me, I don’t like to talk about it. Okay, let’s move on. Let’s move on because this is the best game in the whole of Europe for me and we’ve got some great games in Bundesliga, great games in the Premier League. But this one, Atalanta +260 at home. People will be like, “No chance.” And then you see the opposition, it’s probably number one or number two side in the whole of Europe. It’s Napoli at -105. Napoli to score twice is -125. That would get the job done. I like the under three is at -140. So why not just go two and a half at -110? The draw is at +285. Mina, you can take this away because this is a great game. But remember, Atalanta are better on the road than they are at home.

Mina:

Yeah, they really are. And obviously we know that Napoli right now are what, the best team in Europe would you say other than Manchester City?

Flash:

I fancy they could beat City.

Mina:

You think so?

Flash:

Yeah, I do.

Mina:

Why not? Absolutely. Why not? Now on Atalanta are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches. They do have one of the best defenses in Serie A. Lazio of course one of the best attacks. Interesting one, I didn’t know which way to go with this because in my head it’s got to be a Napoli money line, right? Because they’ve won basically every single game except for their last game against Liverpool in the Champions League and it was a dead rubber.

But also, there’s every opportunity that they will concede to at an Atalanta side that had really come out in their last few matches and said that once they started to face tougher opposition, you can see that their quality is not as high as it needs to be to take on the likes of Lazio and Napoli. So I thought that that was an interesting comment from Gian Piero Gasperini.

They are playing defensive football to just try to hang in there right now, but I still think obviously they’re capable of scoring against Napoli. So I’m going for, I would say an Napoli win, Atalanta to score one. So perhaps both teams to score an over two and a half. Atalanta have seen over two and a half in their last four matches against Napoli. So for me, that looks like it’s a good bet to be honest with you, but it should be Napoli for the win yet again.

Flash:

Listen, I was interested in Atalanta not scoring in this game. I’m even looking, I’m thinking I want to go under two and a half goals in this game, Mattie. And if you gave a gun to my head and said, “You’ve got one score,” Atalanta nil, Napoli one.

Mina:

Yeah. That’s a good one as well, actually.

Mattie:

I think this is tough because I think at Atalanta’s defense is so much better than it has been in years past, and I think you can say the same thing about Napoli as well. Like Mina just said, Atalanta have only conceded eight goals this year, and Napoli have only conceded nine. So tied with Lazio for the second best defense is at Atalanta. For the last five games head to head and five of the last six went way over three goals. That’s why I would be a little timid on the under. But I do agree with you, I think both this could be a very tight and hard fought game, which is really interesting.

I don’t really know how to play the side here. One bet that I’ve been going for on the show is when Napoli’s on the road taking odd number of goals, and I’m actually not going to take that for this game. I think this game has too much draw potential and that streak for Napoli, I believe it was at 12 straight road games with an odd number. It actually broke in that game against Liverpool, although that was Champions League, but still. So that’s why I’m not taking that this week.

But I think this game could easily be a draw. I do like both teams to score a lot more than I like a clean sheet by either side in this game. Definitely would have to give nap Napoli the upper hand, but this is going to be a great game to watch and a very sweaty game to bet on if you’re watching.

Flash:

See, I disagree. Or I maybe I don’t disagree, maybe I just have to point out that one team’s only let in nine. One team’s only let in eight. There’s a respect thing. Napoli have already got a five point gap. The draw probably suits the away side. But I also think that Atalanta haven’t got the vision of all the players that can possibly hurt them. I think that there’s too many weapons coming from the Napoli side. 1-0, I’m more than happy. I’ve just looked at the corner of my eye. +120 for under two and a half goals.

I think Napoli win this game 1-0 and I’m happy to go under two and half. I’m happy to go like that every time one of the teams goes forward. But it’ll save me as well because I’ve gone with Napoli to win this game.

Mattie:

The only other thing I would mention is that Napoli have conceded on the road in five of their last six games. So that would be another thing I’d be timid of. But I do think it’s very hard to argue Napoli winning this game in whatever way, form or fashion you take it. It’s very hard to argue and I really don’t disagree with that.

Mina:

Just from a term of what’s happened to them from set pieces, they look very vulnerable, Napoli, in terms of set pieces. And I feel like that could be a good way for Atalanta to really try to punish them. And the only other thing is you saw, you would say Lazio and Napoli are probably the best sides in terms of playing style in Serie A. Would you agree, Flash?

Flash:

Yeah, I would. I would.

Mina:

[inaudible 00:19:01] destroyed them.

Flash:

Well, they’ve all got idiosyncrasies. Take Lazio and obviously Lazio with Immobile. But take Lazio and Napoli out, they’ve all got their fault. I think at Atalanta struggle to force themselves on games and have the creativity, that’s why they do so much better away from home. Sorry?

Mina:

Well, would you say that if those two are the best and they’re similar, Lazio and Napoli in how they dominate the game, and they won 2-0, Lazio, do you not think now could do 3-0?

Flash:

No, I think for Napoli after coming back from a really tough game midweek, and also they managed the game better. This is the other piece that why I’m not getting off the Napoli train. Yeah, I might get it wrong and then this may well be a low scoring draw. That’s why I’m going to cover myself with the under two and a half. I don’t mean that’s an under three. You’ve got to see four goals against two sides that have only let in 17 goals. So you want to see 25% in one game of their total goals conceded? I don’t see it, I just don’t. And that’s at -140. A lot of people, Mattie, would say -140, that’s a great price.

Mattie:

Again, this to me, this total has got to be a pass. I agree with what you’re saying on the under because of how well the defensives have been playing this year. But you also have to figure, Napoli do have the highest scoring offense in Serie A with 30 goals on the season. The head-to-head numbers are very poor for the under, and as well as Napoli conceding at least one goal in five of the last six road matches I think is also a factor. So both teams’ score is only 50% for at Atalanta this year. So it’s kind of a toss up, but I feel like this is either going to be very, very high scoring or probably 1-0.

Flash:

Yeah, I like the 1-0. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. We keep going back to that 1-0. I can see this being 0-0 at halftime as well. So I’m trying to give you as many views as possible. Napoli money line -105 for me. Napoli money line for me, the same at -105. Maybe we’ll get +100 closer to the time when the money comes in on the home side. Remember one, of the sides has let in nine, one’s let in eight. It’s like no one wants to be, especially Napoli do not want to go one knee behind because they got five point gap on their rival. They lose this game, it’s down to two. And then if Milan win, it’s all off and they’re back in the chase again.

So let’s move on to game number four because after [inaudible 00:21:25] show of a great game, we’ve got Bologna versus Torino. Now Bologna, a +200. Torino at +155. The draw is at +210, which tells you straight away, Mattie, I don’t need to go with the unders and overs. The team totals, the draw’s a massive runner at +210.

Mattie:

Yeah. I really am sorry for putting the worst game in Serie A this week on this slate, but we really need to regroup here and get some units back. I really can’t split these sides. Bologna versus Torino, this screams draw to me, absolutely screams draw. I really like to draw here. We’ve had four of the last five meetings end 1-1 or 0-1. The goals scored and goals conceded number are perfect for a draw, which is exactly what we want to see. 1.17 scored for Bologna with one conceded, and Torino pretty much the exact same, 1.33 scored and 1.3 conceded per game on the road as well.

To me, this game is probably 1-1 or 0-0. If somebody scores on the first half, I think either team have the capability to respond in the second half, even if it’s late. I’d just really like to draw here. I’m not sure either of these teams with how well both defensive have been playing, that either team scores twice, but I’d definitely both of them to get one here.

Flash:

The best thing I can say to you is, and this is how close they are matched. In their last five games, it’s a mirror image, it is. Lost, draw, lost, won, won. That’s Bologna. Torino, it’s lost, draw, lost, won, won. And just throw all your science out the window, what have I always said on all the years I’ve been doing these shows? Whenever the draw is close to +200, don’t look anywhere else, Mina. It’s a draw.

Mina:

It’s got to be a draw.

Flash:

It has got to be.

Mina:

In the last six times that they’ve played each other, there’s been four draws and two wins from Torino. That’s exactly how I look about it. I would say it’s 60%. If there was going to be a team to win, it should really be Torino because they do have, I think a better team. But it has ended three times in a 1-1 and one time in a 0-0. So I do think there’s under two and a half goals, that might be another way to go for it, but for me that’s not much value -125. Sorry, what is it? -145.

So I feel like you could go that way, but it’s everything that you are saying right now because Torino score a goal and Bologna have not scored since the 2nd of October. So since then they’ve really managed to get in a goal at least in their last six, seven games. So I would bet on them to score and I would bet on Torino to score. I think it’s a 1-1.

Flash:

Yeah, it looks like a 1-1. The other thing I was going to say to you Mattie, would you give up a little bit of juice here? Because a +210, what about the +200 for it to be a draw after 75 minutes, and not get done in the last 20 like I was cruelly done in Marseille twice in the same game.

Mattie:

I feel like that bet is risky here, because which team do you see scoring after the 75th minute? We just haven’t seen it very [inaudible 00:24:48].

Flash:

Well, whoever’s 1-0 down, maybe.

Mattie:

Yeah, that’s true. But then you wouldn’t have a draw at 75.

Flash:

You wouldn’t have a winner after 75 minutes. Point taken. Okay, so what you’re saying is you just want the draw at +210?

Mattie:

Yeah. I’d rather just stick with the draw, +210 here. Both these teams coming off three straight wins, this just makes total sense for this to be a draw. I don’t think either of these teams, no offense, are good enough to win four straight games at any point in the Serie A season. So I don’t know about the 75th minute draw. That-

Flash:

Well, you do because you said no to it. You do know about it.

Mattie:

I would pass on that. I’d have to look at those numbers a little bit harder on those sports.

Flash:

Well, listen-

Mina:

Technically I think they’re matched to go for a 0-0 or 1-1 because they’re both obsessed with draws. It’s going to be a very combative game. I’m interested to see what the yellow card, red card, what that’s like because I do think they could be a few cards in this game, just because of the fact that they both like to play in quite an aggressive manner.

Flash:

Well, Mina, everyone in the chat is almost agreeing with everyone else but they’ve just gone with a different way. Bologna, double chances on both teams to score. Armando’s gone with Torino, draw, no bet. Balsaman, draw and both teams to score. Everyone’s looking basically at 1-1, but no winner. Nobody there has gone and said, “Yeah, Bologna win +200. No, Torino win, +155.” So it’s all draw, no bets, double chances and things like that.

Mattie:

Draw and under two and a half is +275, which is [inaudible 00:26:20].

Flash:

So that gives you 0-0 or 1-1. Just a couple.

Mina:

That’s a good one.

Flash:

So look at the official picks, because I want to get to game number six and seven, live. I’m really excited by them. Official picks, please. There it is. It’s a draw at +210 and we certainly need them units, not as much as some of the others, but listen, we’ll take it anyway. None of us are really saying that we oppose the draw at +210 either. Balsaman saying over nine and a half corners -110 is another way to look at it.

Let’s move on to game number five. Y’all are not going to believe the stats on this one. Monza +120. They lose this game, that’ll be four in a row. Playing Verona at +240, if they lose this, it’ll be six losses in a row. Neither of these sides can win a game. The draw is at +240. Over two and a half is at -115. Mina, you can fly away here because I am so interested on who’s actually picked this game.

Mina:

Who has? It’s not me or you because why would you go for this?

Flash:

Well, if there’s three of us in the room and it’s not you and it’s not me, who’d you… What are your thoughts on it anyway, Monza?

Mina:

For me, I would go for… Okay, let’s have a look at this because there’s been 2-1 in nearly every single one of Verona’s results. So over two and a half at -115 is probably where I’d go. They’re both disastrous sides. You would think that Monza is playing at home, so…

Flash:

Yeah, the stats are all point to both teams to score and over. Styles of play, if we had… Monza are favorites at +120. Are Monza going to win a game here? Verona are collecting losses as if they’re going out of fashion, Mattie.

Mattie:

Yeah. I guess I’ll apologize, I did it for last game. I’m putting the two worst games on the Serie A slate on this show this week.

Flash:

Don’t apologize if you win because…

Mattie:

I think there’s good reason for this though, because I think there’s so many good games in Serie A this week that there’s value just flying under the radar in these smaller games that a lot of people aren’t going to take. So here’s what I think. Verona are pretty much good for one goal at least in every single game. They’ve only failed to score in 25% of games this season, and Monza is only keeping a clean sheet in 25% of games this season as well.

Verona have not kept a clean sheet all season, home or away, so that’s out the window. Both teams to score automatically based on those two facts. I do like that. Verona’s defense is just so horrendous, especially when they’re winning the game. I don’t know what it is, but their defense just gets cut through like butter. It’s happened in Serie A. I remember watching it before the season in Coppa Italia when they played a promoted Serie C side, that scored three goals on them.

I think Verona could score two goals in this game because to me this is just a team that Verona should be able to beat, although I’m saying that Verona is sitting in dead last place right now.

Flash:

No, no, no. 19. Cremonese are bottom.

Mattie:

I think they both have five points.

Flash:

I know, but they’re above a mongol difference.

Mattie:

Yeah, that’s horrible. They’re tied -13 both sides. Wow, that is terrible.

Flash:

Verona scored 11. So like you say, so that’s like a goal a game.

Mattie:

Yeah. Well, Monza have also scored 11. I think this is a game that could just have a ridiculous amount of goals. I think these teams can definitely go shot for shot with each other and they both think they could win this game or should win this game. I think that makes for a very fast open pace game. I think we’re going to see a lot of open play in this game. I don’t think we’re going to see a lot of conservative tactics in this game. I’d definitely like both teams to score based on the numbers I gave, and I think either side here could score a second goal. For that reason I’m playing both teams to scoring over two and a half in this game.

Flash:

+120 by the way. That’s probably the only way you’d want to go. And if you’re really brave you could go Monza to win, and both teams to score because although Monza have lost three in a row, prior to that, they’d won twice in a row. So they put back to back victories together.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s Mattie on his own. But I suppose everyone agrees that the only way you could actually attack this game would be the way that Mattie has and that’s both teams to score and over two and a half goals at +120. You’ll get the same odds for the home side to go and win the game. Here, don’t care if it’s a draw and it’s 2-2, then you cashed and you would’ve lost your money line.

Okay, let’s move on to game number six. Six and seven here are just unbelievable, just great games. The next game up please. It’s the Rome Derby. I had to wipe my eyes here because Roma at +100, Lazio at +285. I think you know where I’m going already. The draw is at +255. The under or over is at two and a half with the over being at 115. Mina, you don’t like Roma. We like Lazio. Why are Lazio +285? This reminds me when we saw Lazio +190 away at Fiorentina.

Mina:

I’ll tell you why Lazio. And to be honest with you, well, it did make me think to myself, “Should I really be betting on this?” Here’s the thing, Milinković-Savić got a yellow card and he’s going to be out for this game. It’s a yellow card that has been discussed in such great length by the media, by everyone you can imagine. Maurizio Sarri looked like he was going to top himself by the end of that match. To not have Milinković-Savić and his ability, what highest assist maker, really best player for Lazio at the moment, and potentially without Ciro Immobile as well. That’s two huge losses for Lazio.

Of course, their game plan is always super and false superior to whatever Jose Mourinho will have in store for Roma, just because they play attacking wise. We already know that he knows how to create a number nine even if he doesn’t have one in Immobile. There’s still Zaccagni, there’s still Lazzari, so it’s still a lot of a vertical threat. But you saw the difference of how they play when they didn’t have Milinković-Savić and that was against Salernitana.

They might have done really well in the first half but it started to go badly once Salernitana got a goal and then they introduced Milinković-Savić and then they just got very nervous, which so they’re still an emotional team and perhaps not as mature as we need them to be.

Roma on the other hand, can really just park the bus. And so a lot of people are thinking this could be a draw or a low scoring game. And between these sides, when a derby is involved, the home side usually has the say in this. Rama are the home side, they do have very vociferous spectators, obviously. We know that Mourinho loves the big matches. And so that could make a difference, and that Lazio right now just don’t have their best players available.

Which way it’s going to go, it’s interesting to see you but for me I still think Sarri’s a superior coach. So that’s where I always would put my money.

Flash:

I’d also have a little look, Mattie, at Roma not scoring twice in this game, -120. But you offer me Lazio at +285 when listen, it’s fourth place fifth, it’s a local derby. So they both play on the same ground. Apart from the fans, there’s nothing changing for me. I think Lazio may be too mobile and I think Lazio may just want it a little bit more. I’ve got to go with Lazio. What about the double chance by the way, at -120?

Mattie:

So what I’m actually interested in this game is the total, and this is going back to what you were talking about on at Atalanta versus Napoli. We have a team in Lazio who had the same number of goals conceded as Atalanta. And Roma have only conceded two more goals than Napoli have this season.

Well, at the same time Roma have only scored 16 goals this year. Lazio have scored 24. Lazio missing some important pieces. To me, this game could definitely be an under. I think this could be very low scoring. Maybe it’s a draw. I definitely lean Lazio in this game, but I don’t really want to put my money on it while they’re on the road.

But I like the under in this game. There’s a lot of support here. The under two and a half is actually hitting in 60%, which is well below the league average of 53%. 2.1 goals per match is what we’re averaging here, home and away for these two teams. I think the under could be a sneaky play in this game.

I think this should be a tighter game than Napoli versus at Atalanta. I feel like that game probably is going to have a faster pace than this one. I think this one’s going to come down to being pretty much possession based and who wins the battle in the midfield here. So I don’t agree with the money line price on Roma. I will agree with you guys on this. Although I don’t want to take Lazio at + 285, to me, it’s just priced way too high. I think these lines should be closer to +150 and +170. They’re much more evenly matched than that.

Mina:

Can I just [inaudible 00:35:26].

Flash:

Yeah, yeah you can say whatever you like. That’s why you are here, Mina.

Mina:

Mattie was talking about the fact that away from home, about the difference between Lazio and Roma away from home, Lazio have actually done a better away from home this season, and it’s not to do with home support, anything like that. It’s to do with pitch. And obviously, they’re still on the same pitch because it’s still the same stadium. Roma’s obviously the home stadium for them, so they’ll have more of their fans but they’re still playing in the Stadio Olimpico with the same pitch.

One of the reasons why Sarri’s saying that it’s become much more difficult for them to play at home is because he doesn’t like the turf. Right now he feels like it’s almost impossible for Lazio to play the way they want to play with playing a more possession style of football because they keep tripping up. So I wonder in that kind of game it would suit Roma a little bit more, right?

And so I nowadays believe more in Lazio when they’re away from home and they can go to Bergamo, for example, that has a beautiful turf and defeat Atalanta because they can, because they have the right pitch for that circumstance. Whether or not they can do it in their home one, which is the same one as Roma’s, is potentially why they’re valued it +285. Actually the more I talk about it, the more I don’t want to bet on Lazio anymore.

Flash:

Yeah. Don’t talk yourself about it because the number’s too big. You didn’t bet it just because of Lazio. You bet it because the number was too big. Mattie, the other one that I’m saying, if you want to start talking about condition of pitch, then it’s not conducive for many chances and goals. It’s going to be a very scrappy game. There’ll be bumps. Listen, Lazio are going to set up to frustrate Roma anyway. And Roma, they’ll struggle to break them down and then be susceptible in the break.

Mattie:

Yeah. To Mina’s point, and actually to back your point on Roma team total under one and a half is Roma are only conceding 0.6 goals a game at home. Lazio are conceding 0.2 goals on the road this season. So to both your points, that’s very fair and it also supports my under two and a half a little bit as well. So again, I think this game is going to be tight one way or the other, whoever wins this or if this draws.

Flash:

Yeah, and it’s just a must watch. Let’s have a little look at the official pick of the Rome Derby. Roma versus Lazio, what game.

Okay, Lazio money line at + 285 for myself and the queen. That means that’ll be what, 5.7 units in one game. I do like the double chance as well at -120 but make sure you follow @betustv because if I do have any updates, then that’s where I’ll put them in, especially once I’ve got the lineups because I will be glued to my TV.

Okay, let’s go to game number seven because they’re getting better and better. It’s Juventus at +210, Inter +135. Goals over two and a half at -105 I think is wrong. The draw at +235. Juve, draw, no bet at + 130. Mina?

Mina:

Ah. Which way to go in the Derby d’Italia? Well, let’s talk about the last six matches. Inter won three, they’ve drawn two, and Juventus have only won once. There’ve been over two and a half goals scored in 17 of Inter’s last 19 games, and Inter have been winning at both halftime and full-time in their last four matches.

Now, both of these teams have had their moments. What I can tell you is Inter has one of the better attacks in Serie A. Juventus now hold the best defensive record in Serie A. We know they’ve been abysmal to watch this season. Interestingly enough, in their last two matches, that includes against Lecce and of course against PSG, and the last half, the second half against Benfica, they’ve decided to go with their kids. They have 12 people injured, but they should recover Bremer, and most importantly Vlahović, which I think is going to matter in this match because Arka Milik at the moment can’t really play as a lone striker. He doesn’t have the skills for it, but they are a team right now that have a midfield that’s working for them.

These kids know how to hold onto the ball, they know how to spray beautiful passes. Locatelli is your perfect vertical player. Fagioli is your perfect director of the midfield. So all in all, it’s looking very hopeful and maybe they don’t need their stars. Maybe they don’t need the Paredes and the Ángel Di Marías, or maybe they do because Inter right now are also amazing to watch with Barella and Lautaro Martínez totally dominating. They will be without Lukaku, but they do have Correa. They’ve been fascinating to watch from the counter attack and Juventus hate to defend against the counter attack.

Juventus are the home side. I don’t know how much emotions we’ll deal with this, also because there is a fear that Inzaghi will overthink this and not go with the team that’s been performing right now so brilliantly, and actually go back to using Brozović because understandably he’s one of the best players in the world. But it’s been walking for them the way the midfield has been operating without him. So is he going to overthink this the way that he overthought the games against Udinese and Lazio, resulting in huge losses? Or is he really going to trust his side to do enough to defeat a Juventus team that does still have a stingy defense in Serie A?

Flash:

Listen, Inter, if they win this game, that will be five in a row, five straight wins. I’m loving the goals here. Just over two and half is at -105. I don’t see that going over and Juve winning 3-0 or Inter winning 3-0, Mattie. You get +120 for both teams to score an over and don’t care who wins?

Mattie:

Yeah, I think what’s really interesting is the fact that we haven’t really talked about Inter’s defense this season. Both teams to score on the road is actually hitting at 100% for them so far. They’ve conceded 17 goals this season, which is tied with the likes of Salernitana, Sassuolo, Fiorentina, Empoli, and they’ve only conceded one less goal than Bologna have, which is embarrassing, but their offense has made up for it. They scored 24 goals on the year, which is near the top of the league. Juventus has been a team that has played good defense and their offense has just really not been existent.

So I do think with this said and Juventus being at home in this game, this is a little bit interesting for the fact that if Juventus score in this game and can manage to hold Inter even to one goal, I think they have a very good chance at winning this game or this being a draw. So I definitely like the value on Juventus in this game, as much as it paints me to say that with how they played this season.

I think matchup wise, they think Juventus match up very, very well against Inter. There’s not many times this season I think Juventus has matched up very well with teams. Napoli, they don’t match up well with. Atalanta, they don’t match up well with. And Lazio, they don’t match up well with, but I think they do match up very well with inter. So being at home here, I do favor Juventus and it would not surprise me at all to see them win this game.

Flash:

Yeah. Listen, you can’t really go down the money line route, because again, you just got to go with +120, both teams to score, and over. The thing I love about this is that first play second this weekend in Serie A, fourth play fifth, sixth play seventh. You can lose so much ground if you’re not on it. I think that the intensity in these games is going to be great and everything points towards goals. If Juve get the winner, then so be it. But at +120 just for both teams are scoring over, then that that’s exactly where I would want to go.

We pointed out three or four weeks ago, Inter were probably deferred best side in Serie A and they’ve gone win, win, win, win, and they’re looking really well. Juve, you don’t know what you’re getting but they can also go win, win, win. That tells me you have to score goals to win games and they both score goals.

Mina:

Yeah. Juventus have won three on the trot in Serie A and Inter have won four on the trot.

Flash:

Exactly.

Mina:

So it’s interesting to see because one of the best attacks versus the best defense. And Inter just has such a poor defense. Would you still go for over two and a half? My only fear is that I-

Flash:

No. I’d go for both teams to score an over. If I’m going for over two and a half, Mina, I’m got to go for both. You don’t think Juve can win 3-0, do you, or Inter can win 3-0?

Mina:

No. You don’t think it’s a 1-0?

Flash:

Oh no, the other team and they’ve got no respect for each other. What are you going to do? They’d go for a second I’m sure. The way they’ve been playing and the crowd.

Mina:

[inaudible 00:43:48] good from set pieces. Both of the two best other than Napoli in set pieces.

Flash:

We’ve got fullbacks on the pitch, two from Inter and two from Juve who bomb. Do you know what I mean? It’s like, come on. They’re going to be doing more crosses than the wingers. So I just see the game being complete mayhem. And also, as Armando says, Chiesa will be back as well. That’s another bonus for the home side. I knew you was going to smile there, Mina.

But listen, let’s have a little look at the official picks. It’s Juve draw, no bet at +100 for Mina. For me it’s both teams score, over two and a half at +120. It’s nothing from Ice. Seven great games out. Obviously three of them on paper are probably the best free in the whole of European football.

But we’ve also got a prop of the week. The prop of the week this week Mattie, you don’t need to go into all song and verse and everything else. Just tell us what it is.

Mattie:

And so it is Empoli, Sassuolo, Salernitana, Cremonese, Atalanta, Napoli, Milan versus Spezia. Those are all the games on Saturday under 12 and a half goals. That’s what we’re going for.

Flash:

Okay, so that’s it. Saturday, four games. Under, combined by the way, under 12 and a half goals or 12?

Mattie:

12 and a half.

Flash:

Okay. Under 12 and a half. So have a little look, go to betus.com and underneath the four games it’ll say total goals, under or over. And we are going for under 12 and a half in the Saturday games. And that’s around what? -105.

Now Q&A, although I think we’ve covered nearly everything. Get yourself typing and I’ll remind you and ask you to subscribe to your home of soccer betting. Also, I’d like you to ring the bell and we’ll notify you. You’ll never miss any content again. With the World Cup preview shows being on Tuesday, I think one’s 11:00 Eastern, one’s at 2:00 Eastern.

Golden boot, outrights. Mina you will be joined by Alex. So that’s a good combination. And we’ll have a new combination in the afternoon. Mattie was selected but he’s been suspended. Too many yellow cards. No, no, no. He just can’t make it because he’s so, so busy. And obviously we’ve got Serie A on Monday and on Thursday as well.

And also, I’d like you to follow @betustv, because any updates, any add-ons, they will appear there over the weekend. And also there’s a link in description, press there, join, come back, send name and number to me. You won’t, the office will and then I’ll see if I’ll pull you out the hat.

Okay, any questions? Any questions? Bah, bah, bah, bah. Let’s have a little look. Juventus, four and two at home on the over. Inter, six on the over. Both teams are scoring over, it’s looking like the way to go. Danny Lopez, over. I’ve just read that. [inaudible 00:46:48]. Yeah it’s good. It backs us up. It backs us up. So that’s really, really good. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because there is plenty, by the way.

Mina:

I might make a cheeky bet on Fiorentina against Sampdoria because-

Flash:

Well, then you just copy @betustv and then those that actually follow Benefit. Napoli money line -105 for myself and the queen. Salernitana money line +115 against Cremonese who haven’t won in five. Udinese -1 at +100. Mattie says that’s a free hit. Monza, Verona, both team to score an over at +120. Bologna, Torino, draw at +210. What’s that, mate? Oh, I just heard some grumblings.

Mattie:

I didn’t say anything.

Flash:

Okay. Lazio, money line + 285. Juve, Inter, both teams score an over at +120. Juve, draw, no bet, +100. And Mina’s also gone for Lazio money line at +285. Hannah, just quickly threw one in there. What do we think, Milan, Spezia? I think Milan win. Team?

Mina:

Yeah. Spezia away from home and really not some… I would say Milan under four goals or over one and a half actually would be better. Even two and a half.

Flash:

Yeah. Milan and under four and a half?

Mattie:

I was going to say the opposite.

Flash:

What do you think? Spezia?

Mattie:

I like Spezia’s offense? They’ve looked really bad on the road, but I do think they’re good enough to score one against pretty much anybody right now.

Flash:

Okay, so what, Milan and over one and a half?

Mattie:

Yeah. I think Milan over one and a half is better than Milan and under [inaudible 00:48:23].

Flash:

Well if you think Spezia are going to score, are you going to get an even better price by going Milan and over two and a half.

Mina:

I think so.

Mattie:

I didn’t like it enough to take it. I didn’t bet it.

Flash:

All right. No problem at all. Listen, please thumbs up on the way out. Show a bit appreciation to Mina and Mattie. Mina and Mattie obviously, we’ll speak in the chat over the weekend when we are patting ourself on the back. We’re cheering on Mattie first on Friday night and let’s hope Udinese win by two clear goals. We’ve got LaLiga coming up, Bundesliga tomorrow.

So from everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners and let’s get our pockets full because the World Cup is under three weeks away. You take care.

 

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