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Serie A Odds

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel, your home for soccer betting. I am Flash and today we have a very, very special audience with loyalty. Who, by the way, has had her broom out because she swept the Serie A show card over the weekend, which is great. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like to invite you to subscribe and also ring the bell which means we’ll notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again. And content meaning the NCAAB starts today, and tomorrow we’ll have two preview shows for the upcoming World Cup which is just over two weeks away, or maybe just two under two weeks. Under 14 days, I’m getting excited already. It’s like Christmas come early.

Also, if you’re on social media, then please follow @BetUSTV. And there’s a link in the description, if you press that, go over and join, they’ll send me your name and your number and then I will then get to pull someone out the hat and you’ll get a shirt. We’re going to have records. We’re going to have a Q and A, get yourselves in the chat. Now, let me introduce. We’ve got eight games, Matty can’t be here because he’s had a late interruption, an occupational interruption. It obviously cannot be helped, so the special audience one-on-one for me and the queen of Serie A coming off of… What is it? 4.8 units, and it could have been more if you was a little bit braver with Juve.

Mina:

Yeah, there were two things that I wish I bet on, which was Fiorentina, which I talked about in the show. I kept saying, “Shall I, shall I not?” And you said, “You can tweet it out,” and I just thought no, because the last time I tweeted something out it didn’t work for me and I got really scared. But Juventus, that I had a sneaky feeling they were going to manage it against Inter, but rather than full on bet on them which makes me superstitious now, I decided to go draw no bet. But I still made money, so it’s okay.

Flash:

You did. 4.8 units, it was great. I mean the prop of the week banker came in as well, under 12 and a half goals. Even if the market moved to under 11 and a half, it was still only 11 goals scored. So, Matty came up with that prop. Matty has given us his selection, so we will cover them games but when we do it will just be, I’ll give out his selection and we’ll try and find out a reason why. But as he’s not here, we might just hammer him because obviously he’s got no defense. So, let’s have a little look at the records please. That’s because they’re trying to load up your winnings. You know when he say, “Oh, can you bring the money round?” He is like, “The bloke’s coming with a big bag like this.” Or no, not bags like this. I think it’s wheelbarrow. [inaudible 00:02:42] the wheelbarrow.

Mina:

Oh, that much?

Flash:

There you go, 3.6 for Mina. Matty’s at 0.81, the good thing is the total now is at 3.73. Now we spoke about, obviously, Juve winning. But let’s talk about Lazio, second time you’ve had Lazio on the road. You had a plus 190 away at Fiorentina and then we add them at plus 285 away at Roma. What gives you more pleasure, Lazio winning or Roma not scoring at home again?

Mina:

Oh yeah, it’s an interesting one. I’m not understanding why Lazio are not getting so much love. So to me it just seems like an easy bet, because when you see them play there’s no way that you can’t bet on the side. But I think what they showed against Roma is the fact that they can do things in a cynical and dirty way. I mean, they were so defensively compact. They took away every space and minute that Roma could have. And Roma are just so weak attacking wise, that I’m scared to bet on them going forward. They’ve become one of my bogey teams, like Udinese. And I know the lure of betting on Udinese is so high, which is why Matty keeps falling into the trap as well. And I fell into it so many times that I had practically no units last week. So again, them and Roma are two teams I just don’t want to touch.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean you’ve got Napoli sitting at the top now, six points clear. But if you have a look at the top eight, I think they are your top eight. Maybe not in the order they’re in at the moment, but I don’t think anyone gatecrashes that. I think the eight now is put in cement. I think you’ve got everything you need, no one else comes. I’m not having Udinese, I weren’t really having them earlier on in the year, neither. And obviously, you just got lucky quite a few times. Maybe three or four times they’ve scored two goals in the last 10 minutes and come away with points. They don’t score.

It’s also a bit like Lazio on a different end of the spectrum. That Lazio scoring that first goal against Roma was always going to be tough. And at plus 285, we were sitting there going, “Oh, I wouldn’t want to change that for the world.” Okay, let’s have a little look at our first game. It’s the undefeated Napoli at minus 550 against Empoli at plus 1600. That means we’re going to have to deep dive to maybe find some proper value. The draw is at plus 650. Under over three and a half goals, with the over at minus 110. Napoli, they’re minus 150 to score three times, Mina.

Mina:

Yeah, but it’s interesting because Empoli are not so great, but they are quite good away from home, actually. They’ve managed to rack up some important points, frankly speaking. And I do think defensively, they’re not as shoddy as the rest of… Some of the… Let’s say the minnows between these. Now, between these sides in their last six games, there has been three wins for Empoli and three wins for Napoli. And mostly, they’ve both scored in these matches. It was only last year, in December actually, when Empoli won and they kept a clean sheet. That was the first time that you didn’t have both teams scoring. Now obviously, Napoli are just ridiculous but do I see three goals?

I don’t know. Because I don’t think Empoli are that weak, defensively. Do I think they’re strong… Napoli has enough going forward, but they are playing quite a lot. And they have played over the weekend obviously, they’re playing now midweek, and they’ll play again one more time. So, I don’t know whether they’re going to be so gung-ho. You saw a little bit of fatigue set in, in their last match and there’s a part of me that just thinks this might be a one nil or a two nil victory. Do you see three goals? So that’s the one thing that you could look at, is the unders at the moment. Something with Napoli and under three and a half goals is probably where I would go.

Flash:

I think Napoli win by two. Minimum.

Mina:

Minimum?

Flash:

So if I think that Napoli maybe can win this game three nil, I would prefer to go with a minus two at minus 120, because I’m going to get a push if it is just two nil. Because I need to get three goals to get minus 150 in the game. The way the game sets up, I think Napoli come out the traps. I think it’s all Napoli first half, and it’s whether Empoli can withstand it. I don’t see Empoli getting out of their half and if they do, then they better make sure they’ve got that back door shut because you’ve got runners coming from everywhere. And also, it’s a last chance saloon for some of these boys at Napoli, who probably are… We keep saying it. Maybe number one, number two, in the whole of European football. That they might catch the eye and make sure they seal their seat on the plane.

Because they’ve got many different internationals involved that the odd glimpse of brilliance might just get them to the World Cup. Now, we also know that the majority are just about to have a holiday because Italy are not there. But Napoli have been absolutely brilliant. And just two more games, two more games, and then they’re going to have a lovely rest for the best part of a month.

Mina:

No Kvaratskhelia, right? So-

Flash:

No, not expecting him to play. No.

Mina:

No. And we obviously know Osimhen’s very capable. We know that there’s probably going to be Politano, as well.

Flash:

Good point.

Mina:

I can’t imagine this being a game that’s… I see four games under three and a half at minus 110. Looks very easy to me.

Flash:

Okay, I think Napoli are leading at halftime. I think I’ve got this, Napoli two nil at halftime, and that’s the way I’ve gone. If you have a look at the official Soccer picks, and obviously it’s going to be a little bit different, there’s no selection from Matty. But I’ve actually gone with Napoli. I’ve gone with Napoli, first half minus one at plus 120. Almost gone Manchester City-like. I’m just going to have a quick look in the chat because we’re going to try and get them involved, as well. The under doesn’t sound bad with the fatigue setting in, says Edward. Okay, let’s have a little look.

Yeah, Napoli minus two on the Asian handicap. They think it could be well be a possible free hit. So I mean, I’ve got it at minimum two nil. I’m not sure Empoli score. Then that’s why Empoli not to score at minus 105, they’re not even plus money. Because the other thing is with Napoli, they’re so good that if they go two nil up, that could be the end of the game. So, I’m looking at the plus 120 for Napoli to be leading. And if they are leading at one nil, it’s a push. I’m not going to lose anything. So, I see that as a free hit on the unbeaten future Serie A champions.

Let’s move on to game number two. This is Matty’s pick, so we’re going to have to try and talk this through. And it’s Spezia plus 350, Udinese minus 120 on the road. Draw plus 270, under overs at two and a half. The over is at minus 115. And we’re going to do this a bit different, Matty thinks there’s first half, over one goal in the game at minus 120. That bucks the trend though Mina, because Udinese don’t score many goals in the first half.

Mina:

No, exactly. They’ve been very much about a team that has scored in the last 20 minutes. They have been very good with their substitutions but they’ve regressed to the mean in the last few matches, and we’ve seen… We got really carried away with them in the beginning, they seemed to be all energy. But you kind of figured their vertical football out right now, and ways in which that you can stop that. Spezia at home, we know love to attack. They are a very good attacking team. Daniel Maldini, of course one of their players now, scored against Milan, against his parent club which was very special for him.

I do like Spezia. I think they’re a nice team, especially when they’re playing at home. That sounds so patronizing, doesn’t it? Now here’s the thing, in the last six matches between these two sides, the away side is always the one that wins. Whether it’s Spezia that’s the away side or Udinese. Do you not think that’s really fascinating? That between these guys, it’s always the away team that ends up winning the match. So, that’s probably why… I mean, obviously Spezia are not a big team. But minus 120 for Udinese considering their current form, I don’t think there’s enough value on… I mean, to me that’s just not enough value and I wouldn’t take that right now. And I do think there’s over two and a half goals. I’d be leaning towards minus 115. But yeah, I think first half it should start with goals because I think Spezia will come out and start strongly, and perhaps Udinese can then recover in the second half.

Flash:

Spezia are at plus 100, double chance here. I’m not having Udinese. Especially at Spezia, because they’re all out attack. Spezia are massive at plus 350. If somebody thinks that they’re going to get great value, then I mean, Spezia are minus 210 just to score a goal. So that already puts Udinese on the back foot, so I’m just thinking that Spezia plus 350 is big. But Spezia double chance, so it’s draw or home win at plus 100 could well be the way to go.

And again, with Matty’s selection, so Matt’s gone with over one goal in the first half. Then let me just check this because obviously we’re won’t have a graphic for him. First half, over one at minus 120. I think that’s a push, worst case. And how would you love just to be in Spezia’s camp and just be two nil up? Because I don’t see Udinese coming back from that. And remember, this is a team that have dropped outside of that top eight and I don’t see them getting to them heights again. So, Matty’s pick is first half, over one goal at minus 120. Let’s move on to game number three, please.

Mina:

Oh.

Flash:

There’s no Matty’s pick here. This is you and I, queen. It’s Lecce at plus 350, Atalanta at minus 120. The draw’s at plus 260, Atalanta to score twice is at minus 110. I think Atalanta do score twice. Minus 120, could they win one nil? They’re good on the road Mina, and they were decent against… They put up a fight at least. I think they were fortunate to get their penalty against Napoli but they were decent. And they’ve got to be thinking they go to Lecce and they pick up all three points.

Mina:

To be honest, I actually thought that game against Napoli showed me a lot of Atalanta. It made me think that there were moments that they were quite impressive to watch. I mean, obviously the difference is that Napoli right now are tactically mature, so the man on man marking doesn’t really bully them in the way that it used to last season. They’ve taken that on board and realized that they need to find ways to get through it. So, instead what they did is just draw at Atalanta players out of position and then utilize that space to their own benefit.

Now, Lecce is obviously not going to be half as strong as what Napoli are, right? And you just think with Atalanta’s defensive record, and I think they’re building, going forward in attack, they seem to be a little bit better than they were when they started the season. But they do miss a lot of good opportunities. But that tempo is back up, that belief and motivation is back up. Of course, the last time that these two sides took each other on was in 2020 and Atalanta scored seven goals against Lecce. I don’t assume that’s going to happen again, just because their attack is no longer with… Starring the great likes that they used to have before, which is Papu Gómez, Iličić.

I think they could manage a one nil here but I don’t see that many goals, to be honest with you. Lecce are a strong team in the sense that they do try to combat you and they don’t accept the fact that they are inferior in many ways. So, they’re not a side that I think that you can score three or four against them and Atalanta’s… Like I said, they miss a lot of chances. So, for me I would say this is under two and a… Let’s have a look. Do you think it’s a game to… One to nil? Would you go-

Flash:

Yeah. See, I was looking at that. I was thinking Lecce don’t score at plus 120. I was really impressed with the pace of Atalanta, especially down the left-hand side. And also, I enjoyed the Atalanta players from midfield trying to get into the box, trying to put Napoli under pressure, and almost matching them. But the problem is they poked the beast, they went one nil up, great penalty from Ademola Lookman who must be pinching himself playing on this stage. And he’s doing really, really well. And he’s settled really well. I think Atalanta one nil, two nil. Comfortable, strangle hold in the game, and it’s up to them if they want to score more but I think it’s all more about the three points.

Mina:

Yeah, I think so too. But I mean, under one and a half at plus 120 for Lecce. You think of it and then you think of at Atalanta’s defensive record, and you think that does really take this… It sounds like they can do that, right?

Flash:

Yeah.

Mina:

Because they can cut passages, or they’re just quite defensively strong because they can defend in a multitude of ways. But yeah, I agree with you. Especially down the left hand side, Mæhle just looked fantastic. So Atalanta, do they get more than one goal, two goals over one-

Flash:

That’s the thing. That’s why I don’t think you go with team total. I mean, I think you’ve gone with the right way. If we have a little look at the official picks here because I think we’ve got it surrounded, and I think we could well hit the middle and we both end up winning because I’ve not complicated it, to be honest. Just for the reasons of Atalanta could win this game one nil. Atalanta money line at minus 120, that will do me. I thought they were the winners.

And you’ve gone with Atalanta under three and a half at plus 140, which is a great price. Because I don’t see four goals, because I don’t see Lecce scoring. And I don’t see Atalanta scoring four. So for me, yeah, Atalanta money line, and if you [inaudible 00:16:00] one nil, two nil. Okay?

Let’s move on to the next game because you might have something to say about this next selection. It’s Sassuolo versus Roma. Matty does have a bet here as well, it’s Sassuolo at plus 260, who love playing on the front foot. Roma love to flatter to deceive. But plus 100, this comes under gift or trap. Let me start off by saying that Roma are minus 115 to score twice. Do we trust Roma to go on the road against Sassuolo and score twice? And also, do we think that Roma are going to need to score twice to win this game?

Mina:

You have a pick on this, on there?

Flash:

I do. Yeah, I do. But obviously, I’ll save mine because it’ll flick up at the end.

Mina:

Okay, I wanted to know which way you’re going to go with this.

Flash:

I’m going with Roma. Just win the game but probably one nil.

Mina:

This is difficult for me because Sassuolo are a side that I find really unpredictable to try to manage to figure out where they are last season, they’ve obviously missed so many of their veterans and players that can actually score goals for them. They have been reliant on Berardi coming into this. But the one nil loss to Empoli, that was very, very awful for them to watch. I understand the four nil to Napoli. And then they beat Salernitana five nil. They get a goal against Inter, I thought they were good to watch. They get a goal against Atalanta, they were good to watch.

But then they concede to Verona. Verona are by far the worst team in Serie A at the moment. So I don’t know which way they are, but what they do seem to me is, they’re quite good against physical sides but they seem to be less good against sides that when you know how to use the ball. So, it’s almost like if you take them toe to toe, then you see more of their weaknesses. Roma, to me, they just don’t have enough in attack. Now they’re without Pellegrini because he got injured in the last match, they were so lacking in creativity. There’s no Dybala and Zaniolo tries to win the game by himself. He’s very individualistic in the way that he plays the game. Tammy Abraham is short on confidence, not scoring goals, missing chances. What hope do they have going forward?

And you know they’re capable of a mistake at the back. Sassuolo, I don’t know which side of them will show up. Will they be the side that destroyed Salernitana five nil? Or are they side that just collapse to teams like Empoli? So they are at home, between these two teams it’s more often than not a draw, so I would stay well away of this. Because I told you I don’t like betting on Roma but I definitely don’t see Roma to score twice in this match, so that’s not somewhere I’d go. Actually to be very honest with you, I prefer Sassuolo winning. I think it’s more or less going that way.

Flash:

Sassuolo, 14… We’re in match day 14, 14 goals in total. Roma twice for Matty. Matty thinks that they’re going to score twice. If they score twice they’ve got to win the game but at minus 115, when we know that Roma could just win one nil, it does scare me a little bit. Sassuolo have only had one win in their last five. Roma have dropped down as well. If I just look at this table, they’re in sixth now. And it’s like, one win in their last three, it’s almost a must win game. But do we trust them? Tammy Abraham, I mean, how often has he been scoring? Where is the goal threat actually coming from?

Mina:

This is a problem. And you know that he doesn’t mix well, as well, with Zaniolo because Zaniolo is trying to do everything by himself, so he doesn’t bring anyone else into play. And then, so right now their lineup going forward in this match is Zaniolo, Volpato, who’s the kid that came on who’s played so many games and he’s a kid right now, because they just don’t have anyone available. So Tammy Abraham, Zaniolo and Volpato, the Australian Italian kid up front. They’ve not got a midfield that can provide a lot at the moment. But then you look at Sassuolo and you think going forward, Pinamonti’s not been very good for them because he doesn’t mesh with that style of play. But they do have the energy of Frattesi that can make a difference. But honestly, this could be a really dull nil nil, or maybe a one nil at most. So maybe go down that line, of under two and a half goals. What do you think? Because although they’re both capable of a lot of defensive mistakes-

Flash:

Yeah. And the problem is, the reason I didn’t go with the under was because of the way Sassuolo play.

Mina:

Yeah.

Flash:

Then if Roma go one nil up, Sassuolo will have 10 men bombing on. And then Roma are going to have a field day, and end up winning three, four nil. Or four one. It’s just one of them games where, at plus 100, I’m going to take the cream. They are the better side, they’ve got the better players, they’ve got the better coach. But it’s the desperation of them needing to get back to winning ways as quickly as possible. And dare I say it, the last two home games, I think they’re probably better playing on the road.

Mina:

Roma? Yeah, they have actually a better record this year, of playing away from home than they have been playing at home. Which is bizarre, right? Because it’s a Jose Mourinho side, so you’d never think that. But in some of these matches they’ve been lucky and other matches they’ve been unlucky, so it’s really whichever way the chances fall to them. But I do think it was one mistake that they made, and unfortunately that mistake cost them dearly in the Derby della Capitale.

Flash:

Yeah. Danny Lopez says, “I would take a shot with Roma and both teams to score.” No, that’s the same as Roma winning to nil, which will probably be around plus 190, maybe even plus 200. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. And also, let me remind you that Matty’s was Roma team total, over 1.5 at minus 115 and mine is Roma money line, plus 100. Don’t complicate it.

Let’s move across to the San Siro because this team let me down over the weekend. So, our next game is Inter versus Bologna. Inter at minus 335 really let us down over the weekend, drawing a blank from like, 15 shots on goal. Bologna at plus 925. Bologna not to score in the game is at plus 100, but I was a teenager last time Inter kept a clean sheet. Inter, to score three, are plus 115. It says to me Inter win this game two one, two nil, three one?

Mina:

Three one. Inter, Inter. Away from home, they’ve been dreadful to watch. But at home they’ve been a lot stronger, obviously. I just don’t understand what’s happening with the side. There’s only five teams that have a worse defensive record than Inter, that have conceded 19 goals so far this season. Most of them away from home. But if anyone tries to play a game against them, it seems like they can really manage it. Unless Inter can counterattack, they’re not showing us, right now, what they can do in possession. And they’re not showing enough power.

This is what it is at the moment in time, Lukaku’s not available. Lautaro Martinez is a rollercoaster, he’s either scoring in every single match or he’s on a drought. And it’s remarkable to watch, because he hasn’t scored now in four games and you don’t know how long this is going to last for. Because sometimes, it can last three months with Lautaro Martinez. But when he is on it, I think he’s the best in the world and he’s been fantastic to watch. So, him and Barella. But against… Sorry, when I was talking about the records, I was talking about away from home. At home, Barella and Lautaro Martinez have been their best players, and not necessarily finishing off all the chances that they’re getting. I told you when it came to the Champions League, they had more shots than so many of the other teams but not coming up with enough goals at the moment.

Bologna are an interesting side because I think they’ve been so much better recently. You’ve started to see a more elevated style of play from them, then less of a side than just bullies, but a side that actually utilizes all the strengths of the team. So I really like their direction at the moment, I think they’ve started to be a lot more solid. The last match from them that I thought was atrocious to watch was obviously in that loss to Juve. But they did score two goals against Napoli. Okay, they were obviously not a great side there. But two goals against Lecce, they won over the weekend against… Sorry, they won against Monza, rather. And they won over the weekend against Torino, which is a really big scoreline because Torino are a tough side and really love their duels. So, that was a big thing from them. I still think Inter is going to win because they’re at home. Do you trust them to keep a clear sheet, of course?

Flash:

No. They’re so sloppy defensively. So sloppy.

Mina:

Absolutely.

Flash:

I think it comes down to Bologna’s attitude. Bologna think that this is a free hit, where no one’s giving them a chance. But they could go there. This is the type of game where Bologna could go one nil up, and Inter could win five one. Do you know what I mean? Something crazy, like that.

Mina:

Yeah.

Flash:

I don’t think you’d go… Bologna could score from the first to the 90th minute, so I think you would be brave to go with Inter to win to nil because otherwise, you just go Bologna not to score at plus 100. It’s too much of a toss of a coin for me. Yeah, I think Inter win. I mean, I think that Martinez or Barella will probably score at home. I just want to see them control the game, I think that’s the best way. Because so far in recent weeks, Dumfries, the right back, has been their most attacking player.

Mina:

Yeah, it’s bizarre.

Flash:

It just needs to come from midfield and it needs to be more structured and when they lose the ball, “Don’t worry, we’ll win it and we’ll start again.” At the moment, it’s not like that. And when they’re getting 15 chances away at Juve, if you want something out of it and you want to go forward, you’ve got to be taking them chances. And they’ve just not. So let’s have a little look at the official picks, and let me tell you if Matty had one. No he didn’t, Matty’s next pick is in the Juve game. For us, it’s Inter and both teams to score at a massive plus 185. You’ve got a taste for that money girl, ain’t you? Swept last week, and now they’re all at big money. For me, I have… Basically, I just left it alone, I’m just making sure. Yeah.

Mina:

Do you think that Inter will win this? Because Bologna have won their last four.

Flash:

Yeah, I think they will. Because they’re flat track bullies, they are at home and the match-up’s good. I think we may get a price in running, whether it means that Inter either go one nil down, or it’s nil nil at half time or something crazy like that, but I think there will be an opportunity to… I think if you think Inter are going to win, maybe find an anytime goal scorer. There’s quite a few that will get chances, it’s whether they put them away, outside of maybe Dzeko, who’ll be your favorite.

Okay, let’s move on. I’ve looked at these next two sides and boy, are they bad. Okay, Torino at minus 155 should be a shoe-in. But this is the type of game where Sampdoria might have more of the ball, and they’re plus 460. Draw is at plus 290, the under over set at two and half. And it tells you straight away that the over two and a half, which could be half a goal low, is at plus 110. I think the draw at plus 290 is probably a don’t complicate it, because I expect this to be a tight game from the first to the last. I think if one of them’s up, the other one’s going to pen them in, they’re both going to… Listen, it’s one of those that the value is on the draw because I can’t split them, Mina.

Mina:

Really? You don’t think Torino’s a much better side than Sampdoria?

Flash:

Yeah I do, but you know love this one more than anybody on any of my shows. You love teams playing down against their opposition and playing up against their opposition. Torino are a tough, tough outfit when they play against your Lazio, Atalanta, your Napoli. But when they play against this type of side, I think Sampdoria will have more of the ball. I think Sampdoria will control this game more than Torino.

Mina:

Yeah, because Sampdoria actually, in possession, they’re not such a bad side to watch. I mean, for me I just felt like what was really irritating me from this weekend, other than the fact that… It was irritating me that I didn’t bet on Fiorentina to score twice, and bet on them to win. I just was like, I know that Fiorentina is a much better side, I know they’re better in the duels, I know that they’re better going forward. Even though they had struggled with their attack. Sampdoria, for me, just seem quite a soft side at the moment. They’re a side that can play quite technically when they want to, but they concede goals rather easily. I mean, they’ve lost three nil to… It’s two matches, they’ve conceded five goals, right?

But then they are also a team that can make it quite a hard on Roma, like they did. They got a one one against Bologna as well, and they only defeated Cremonese by one nil. But they still did. And so, Torino, the problem with me is, is like you said, they are a side that can beat Milan but sometimes they just capitulate like they did against Juventus. And I think that’s why their coach has such a hard time with figure out what this team is-

Flash:

Only 13 goals so far this season, which obviously averages out at just one a game. I don’t think they score enough goals. And if you don’t score enough goals against Sampdoria, they’re always liable to get a goal, whether it be set piece, one twos, round the side, crossing over, because they are technically good and they’re well organized. But Sampdoria come unstuck when a team breaks on them and has a little bit of creativity. But with Torino, I don’t see them creating loads and loads of chances.

Mina:

No. They don’t have a-

Flash:

Draw at half time might be one here, as well, you know?

Mina:

This is the problem, they don’t have a goal scorer. So I don’t see both of them really managing to get any goals at the moment, so they’re really struggling. You’re right, it could be a nil nil, but it could also be a one nil. But Torino at home haven’t been as fantastic. Actually, away from home, they’ve scored more than one goal, on occasion. But on this point, yeah, I agree with you. A draw does look like it’s probably the tastiest option. But I wanted to go for Torino draw no bet. But for me it wasn’t enough value obviously, so I decided to leave that alone. But there is a part of me that would think that this should be an easy game for Torino, if the real Torino shows up. But you know that we don’t know with them.

Flash:

Yeah. See, the big problem I have is, okay, so Torino are 10th. They have a minus goal difference. And you’re asked to take minus 155 for a home side against a team who are second from bottom, only scored six goals but they keep possession. So I’m thinking, okay Sampdoria, a draw for them, that’s almost like a win. So it’s like, yeah, it’s a horrible game but I just thought at plus 290 I was greedy enough to say that’s where I want to be. I’m more than happy to be watching a real dull game, no shots, no corners, just nothing and just pick up my plus 290 at the end. Now Hamza says Torino Sampdoria one one or nil nil. I prefer the nil nil Hamza, but Idris says Torino money line is the only option here. I think Mina agrees but minus 155, you’re off your head if you’re taking that. Let’s have a little look at the official picks before we move on to our next game.

There it is. Draw plus 290 and if you want, go over to betus.com and have a look at the draw over 75 minutes, because if that’s 290 you’re only going to be getting maybe 270, and you’re not going to be done in the last 20 minutes because you can basically get paid on a completely different market. Let’s move on to the next game, because this side are on fire even if we don’t like to admit it.

Okay, Verona. No wins in five, no draws in five. At plus 475 against Juventus at minus 150, who have gone win, win, win, win even when all men have doubted them. Clean sheet yesterday, and was disallowed on a VAR goal. They are getting the job done. Juve to score twice is at minus 125. The draw is at plus 290. This has got to be an away win because the home side has shown nothing, Mina.

Mina:

Yeah, the home side have shown nothing. And also, they’re now picking up this terrible habit of getting red cards. They got a red card against Salernitana, one against Roma, one against Monza over the weekend. That was quite a… Anyway. Heartbreaking match for Stefano Sensi. I don’t know what to make of this team but this used to be a team that would honestly give sides a really good game. Especially under Ivan Jurić and after that, Igor Tudor, they were a side that had a soul, that was so bullying and robust aesthetically, that always looked to going forward. And now, they just seem very ill disciplined at the moment and have no understanding of what they should be doing.

Juventus, like you said, that’s four in a row now, another clean sheet for them. They seem to be really combative in nature, and they’ve had that energy of the young players on board, like Fagioli, like Miretti, and Locatelli is really benefiting from that, while the center back pairing of Bremer and Danilo was just fantastic against Inter. You saw that their energy is in it, and right now the only thing that’s making Juventus good is that they’re playing with their heart and soul, which is something we’re not seeing from teams like Inter at the moment.

This should be a very easy win for them, frankly speaking, and it would be their fifth victory in a row. And it would ease the pressure off of Max Allegri. So, the interesting thing about all of this is, when I was trying to figure out which way to go with it, is obviously there’s no value in betting on Juventus. I don’t know whether this is an under or an over, because I have a very good feeling that Verona could just get a red card and be down to 10, and then it could just be a mauling. Or they could spring a surprise to you, because Juventus can obviously lose concentration. I decided to go with what should happen in the first half, because I think Juventus will come out, will get a goal, because Verona will be trying to gather and settle into the game and they will be feeling intimidated. And then after that, I can wash my hands of this game.

Flash:

And the other thing is that, basically, I believe that if Juve are winning at halftime, they win the game.

Mina:

Yeah.

Flash:

So, Juve are plus 135 to be leading at halftime, so why would you go near the money line? Because if they’re leading at halftime, they’re going to win the game at plus 135. Also Matty’s got a selection here, and he’s gone with Juve to score two at minus 125. Well, if they score two, then they could all just get deck chairs out and not even worry about Verona. Because Juve have only let in seven goals. If they keep a clean sheet here, that’s 0.5 goals per week and they have the best defensive record in the whole of Serie A. And that’s including the side at the top, who are six points clear and not been beaten. So, there’s nothing. I mean, basically it’s like, the top of the table, because Juve are obviously in the top five. But on form, they’re like the top of the table, only Napoli have a better record, against Verona who haven’t seen a win and are sitting with five points and let in 26 goals.

Mina:

Yeah. And when you consider the fact that Verona without Faraoni, who’s possibly their best player, and that Juventus are getting Chiesa back, who’s going to be given more minutes. And Di Maria is back as well, so he’ll probably start that match alongside Milik. With Kostić showing the form that he’s in right now, they should really be winning this by three, four nil. It’s just that Juve are just a little bit of a difficult-

Flash:

Not the Juve way though, is it?

Mina:

Well, that’s exactly what it is. You never know which way they’re going to go, because there’s still no Vlahović, and Milik is not really comfortable being the striker. So actually, they were better when he went off the pitch against Inter because then there was no reference point, and it just became very… It became very difficult to defend against them, so that’s what I’m interested to see because I don’t think Milik can play as a lone striker. So that’s where the problems will arise, whether or not they can get three or four goals, I don’t know. But I definitely think they can get over one. So, I understand Matty’s choices but for me, I’m more inclined to just go… Because of the value, I’d rather go for their money line on the first half.

Flash:

Yeah. And you are getting that as well at plus 135. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because Verona sitting bottom of the league, five points. Wow. And Juve have only let in seven. Juventus, a first half money line at plus 135 and Matty’s gone with Juve team total, over one and a half at minus… What was it? Minus 115 or minus 125? It was minus 125 for Juve to score twice. They score twice, they win the game.

Let’s go to the final game, please. Lazio versus Monza. Lazio at minus 150. Now looking at that, that might be a parlay piece with maybe Juve, who are away at Verona. Monza plus 400. Monza plus one, at minus 135. The draw is at plus 310. Lazio to score twice is at minus 155. If Lazio score twice then I think they win the game. So don’t do the money line, do Lazio to score twice because I don’t fancy Lazio win this game one nil. I was impressed with them. I think they had got a steeliness, and when you look in the league, look who sneaked into third place. Lazio have crept up on everybody and a little bit like Juventus, they’ve only let in eight goals all season, Mina.

Mina:

Yeah. And I mean, honestly speaking it really should be five. Because I don’t know what happened, it was an aberration in their loss to Salernitana. I just felt like someone had taken Lazio away. Now here’s what’s interesting about this, if you thought they were boring to watch against Roma, fear not because Milinković-Savić is back and I just think that he makes that team tick so well, and what he can offer in midfield. Luis Alberto should be available to play from the start. I know that he was taken off with what looked like a knee injury. And Immobile is training with the squad. I don’t think he’s going to start. Felipe Anderson will be there, Pedro, Zaccagni who is such a sensational kid to watch.

I think this is one of the easiest games for them and here’s why, Monza suffered a huge loss with Sensi being taken off with an injury. It was terrible to watch. I don’t know if you watched the game, but he was crying for so long and you can hear him really weeping. And he might be out for a really long time, it was a horrible injury that he had. So, it looks like at least two months at the moment. Luckily he’s… Sorry, he did fracture his pelvis so it could be a really long time. It remains to be seen, to be honest with you.

So Monza don’t have a creator. Without that they can’t score goals, I think. I think you really suffer to hold the ball and I think they’ll suffer to create. Lazio are a side that showed us they can play vertical football, they can keep possession, they can be really deep and defend and suffer when they want to, or they can be full flow, attacking, and beautiful. Lazio, right now, have an answer tactically to most things, especially when they have a full squad available to them. No Immobile, but it shouldn’t be a problem against Monza. Two goals? What are you looking at? It’s minus 155, right? So, I don’t know, there’s no… I would-

Flash:

Oh, I’ve got a better one on that. I’ve got a better one on that. I’ve got two bets in this one.

Mina:

Oh?

Flash:

First of all, I don’t think Monza score. Monza don’t score for me, at plus 170. Plus 170, Monza don’t score. And if I’m right, then Lazio score twice, I’ve got Lazio minus one. I think it was plus 115.

Mina:

Yeah.

Flash:

And so minus one at plus 115 means that if Lazio do win one nil, I’ve got a push on my minus one, but I’ve also picked up my plus 170. I don’t see Monza causing Lazio any problems. I think that they sit there in the, 4-4-1-1 formation, they drops back into a five. They look so content with knowing that they’re going to score at some stage, and then make… Eight goals. Eight goals all season. Again, and Monza, again they’re neat and tidy. Don’t create enough for me and not got enough firepower. I mean, I’m just going to have a quick look here at the tale of the tape for Monza. Because Monza, if they don’t score this week, they’re under a goal game. Lost three of their last four. Yeah, plus 170 is too big when I’ve seen some of these sides plus 100 not to score, and I think they will score. And then I look at Monza and go plus 170? I mean, I’m surprised you’ve not jumped all over that. Monza or Lazio to keep a clean sheet.

Mina:

Yeah, you’re right, actually. When I’m looking at it now, because I mean… Firstly, I think that Lazio will score probably two or three goals. Because Monza, I think only four teams have conceded more than that, and that’s Sampdoria, Cremonese, Spezia and Verona. So I definitely think that defensively, they concede about two goals a game on average and they don’t score enough. So, it is one goal a game honestly speaking. But yeah, I think I’m going to go for the plus 170. Let me just think about it and I’ll tweet it out.

Flash:

Yeah, no worries. Yeah, tweet it out because… But remember, it’s midweek. It’s not at the weekend. Don’t be tweeting out Monza not to score after they’ve been beaten four nil on Saturday morning or something, right. Don’t be the-

Mina:

Come on, give it to me.

Flash:

Okay, and obviously we’ve got the Serie A show on Thursday. No La Liga show, but we have got the La… Sorry, we’ve got Serie A show on Thursday, that’ll be the last one prior to the World Cup. Okay, so let’s have a look at the official picks and obviously I’m adding there. So Lazio, first half money line at plus 120. I’ve gone with Lazio at minus one. Plus 115, I think it’s a free hit and I’ve added Monza not to score at plus 170. So, Monza I’ve added at plus 170.

Now, it’s time for you to your Q and As. And the Q and A, well, I think we’ve covered nearly every single one-

Mina:

We have.

Flash:

… and don’t be asking where is Matty? But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sports book, so I’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell. And that means that we’ll notify you and never miss any content again. If you’re looking forward to the World Cup, then join us tomorrow. Group A, B, C and D at 11:00 Eastern. I believe, Mina, you are in group A, B, C, and D?

Mina:

Yep, I am.

Flash:

Excellent. And you’ll be joined by Alex. So Alex, new pairing there. So that’s good, because there’s countries that obviously Alex covers in there with you. And then 2:00 Eastern tomorrow, it’ll be Kevin Hatchard and Brad Thomas, which is great because we’re going to get someone on the other side of the pond to give us their views, which is really, really good. So that’s t2:00 Eastern tomorrow. And that will be groups, E, F, G, and H.

Okay. Also, if you’re on social media, please follow @BetUSTV. Especially now because Mina said that if she goes for Monza no goal at plus 170, she will let you know there first. There’s a link in description. Go over, press that, join, they’ll send me your name and your details and if I pull you out the hat, you’ll get a shirt. All I need from you is which club and what size?

Okay, let’s have a quick look and see any chats. Lazio could score over two goals [inaudible 00:43:13]. Yeah, hopefully they do. Milan game please, any thoughts from Aaron Rod, on the Milan game please, Mina?

Mina:

Let’s have a quick look. So Milan-

Flash:

They’re away at Cremonese.

Mina:

Okay, I actually really like Cremonese and so do you, from what I know. I mean, obviously they scored two goals against Salernitana. They put up a really tough test, but they’re not good enough to beat Milan, right?

Flash:

No. But there’s no value. That was it, there was no value unless you go with Milan to win and both teams to score.

Mina:

Or Milan in over two and a half goals, potentially. Do you think they can get through? Giroud is just on fire right now, right? So I don’t know, I think it’s probably a two nil victory against Cremonese. If you can find value in that… Oh, and I would probably look at first half, right? Because you should think that Milan would score first half.

Flash:

Yeah, halftime full-time is where I was probably going to go.

Mina:

Yeah.

Flash:

I was going to probably say halftime full-time would probably be the way. Maybe even Milan minus one and a half, they win by two clear goals, brings in the two. I’d expect the handicap to be around that. In fact, if you just bear with me… Oh no, I’ve still got my sheet on Bundesliga but I left the game alone, just because I didn’t think there was enough value. But if you’d gun to the head, it’d probably be halftime full-time with Milan.

Milan to win two nil against Cremonese, yep. Two other people. Lazio to win two nil. Maybe you could do a double, be greedy. Christmas is coming soon, you’re going to need all the money you can get. Let’s have a little look at all the official picks and remember, I’ve added one, it’s… The best bets please, and that gives me a opportunity to run down Matty’s. Spezia Udinese, first half, over one at minus 120. Roma, team total over one and half at minus 115. Juve, team total over one and a half at minus 125.

For me, it’s Napoli first half, minus one at plus 120. Atalanta money line, minus 120. Roma money line at plus 100. Lazio, minus one at plus 115. Torino, Sampdoria, draw at plus 290. And also Monza not to score at plus 170. Mina, Atalanta and under three and half at plus 140. Juve first half money line at plus 135. Lazio first half money line at plus 120. And her big one is Inter to win and both teams to score at plus 185. Giroud is missing because he’s suspended, says Hamza.

Mina:

Oh, my God, yes, he got a second yellow card for celebrating.

Flash:

Exactly, so there’s another reason why you’re not getting the value and you need to leave it. Okay, looking forward to the World Cup shows tomorrow. And then I’ll look forward to seeing everybody back in Serie A on Thursday. Normal time I believe, on Thursday. If it’s anything different, you’ve rung the bell so we’ll notify you anyway. The Queen, thank you very much for my individual audience. I have enjoyed it a lot and I’ve had no nonsense from Matty. But look, still, I’ve missed him a little bit, have you?

Mina:

Yeah, I think you’ve just missed bullying him, like you always do.

Flash:

Not bully, it’s called banter.

Mina:

Banter.

Flash:

No, don’t say bully because you know that in England, in England, bullying is more physical, isn’t it? Not mental.

Mina:

Oh no, I mean having jokes at his expense.

Flash:

I know, but everyone’s got their role to play, Mina.

Mina:

Yes, that is entirely true and you are the master of this.

Flash:

Thank you very much, and he is without doubt an integral part of the show. Remember he was BetUS’ number one Capper last year. We’re looking for a new king this year. Or queen. After last week, it could well be you. From everyone at BetUS, thanks in the chat. Thumbs up. On the way out, we’re looking forward to these Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga midweek cards. But remember, it’s World Cup tomorrow. You take care.

 

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