Mina:
Everyone is chasing Napoli, and they have a huge game this weekend which is so exciting, and that kicks off the return to Serie A, and it’s obviously Inter versus Napoli. And I think that Inters the team that is so going to give them a game, because they’re just completely different in the way that they play their game. You think it would’ve been boring if it was Juve, Milan, they play similar styles, both attacking, but Inter, Inter is going to be fun. So that’s a great way to kick it off.
But otherwise, I really felt like this week, there were just so many bets I wanted to take that it was really hard to narrow down the best bets, because I think there’s a lot of value this week. And I was like, should I go for this? Should I take a risk? I’m excited.
Flash
It’s like the January sales Matty, you go into the shop and everything is there and you want to buy the lot, but you can’t do that because obviously either there’s not enough money or you’ve not got enough room in your bag. Happy New Year to you mate.
Matty:
Well, thank you Flash. Happy New Year to you as well.
Flash
I’ve been quite nice. I’ve been like jovial.
Matty:
Yeah, I know.
Mina:
[inaudible 00:02:46] he needs to point that out, because [inaudible 00:02:48].
Matty:
I guess that was-
Flash
[inaudible 00:02:50] shake. What’s going on?
Matty:
You’re doing great on your New Year’s resolution so far, so we’ll see if you can keep it up. Yeah, but we have a lot of really great games in this round, and I think the tricky part is whenever it’s the first week back from a long break is narrowing it down and not putting too many eggs in the basket so to speak. And looking at all three of our Soccer picks, I think we all narrowed it down to what we think are the best plays and we’ll see how they do this week.
Flash
I think they’re all winners, unless we’ve contradicted ourselves and then I think yours are losers, the mine are winners, but I won’t know about that until we get to it. Let’s have a little refresh for everyone in the chat, and make sure you do get yourselves in there and give me some of your thoughts and your opinions. But first of all, let’s have a little look at how the table looked when we left, and it was Napoli out in front and the rest chasing. Let’s have a little look please.
Okay, so here we are. This is Serie A top seven, Napoli eight point clear, but Milan, Juve, Lazio, Inter, even Atalanta and Roma are looking for that top four spot. Mina, do we see that anyone actually closing down Napoli, because they have not been relying on one individual, they’ve been a good team and they are there on merit?
Mina:
Well, honestly at the start of the season, I think we both looked at Juventus and Inter as being two teams that could run them quite well, just because you believed in Juventus and they started to build up steam. But obviously everything that’s happened off the pitch, makes you a little bit more apprehensive about Juventus’s chances, because they started to really gather steam at the end of the season. Nowadays, it’s about whether or not with the whole board resigning, so many problems up top, you wonder which way it’s going to go. I still think Inter has a good team. If they can get their act together, I wonder if they can do enough, but it is already a big gap.
As for Milan, they are progressing in the Champions League. I don’t know if the team is strong enough to handle so many different competitions, but they are always a side that you never discount and always a team that knows how to win. But there’s just a part of me right now that doesn’t believe in Milan, and my money is all on Napoli to be honest.
Flash
Yeah Matty, Napoli, and you can still get half a decent price if you wanted to do a little parlay across the leagues that we cover, like a little Napoli, a little Man City, although I can’t get Arsenal right and they’re clear, a little bit of Barcelona, don’t worry about Germany. Do we see Napoli not throwing this away, or would this turn into one of those where they start having the wobbles?
Matty:
I think Napoli had one big advantage in the first half of the season that most of these teams did not, and it’s the fact that they press no matter what. So it doesn’t matter if they’re up by one goal or 2 goals or 3 goals, they’re always attacking. And I think that’s the biggest difference between them and a team that we see lower on this table like Atalanta. You see Atalanta many times in this season when they’re up 1:0, they kind of sit back, they pass around a little bit and they play a lot slower. The big difference between Napoli and the rest of these teams is that they just attack, attack, attack, attack nonstop, and it worked out really, really well for them in the first half of the season. So if they continue to do that and it keeps working for them, I think they could definitely run away with the title.
Flash
Yeah, Napoli go to Inter this week, and obviously if Milan then go and win, then that eight points becomes five points and then it’s anyone’s. I mean, five is never good because that’s just two straight defeats and two victories for the chasing group.
Let’s have a little look at the bottom though, because the bottom I think could well be sewn up, which means you just want to keep putting the boot into them. The bottom, we’ve got Verona, Sampdoria, Cremonese. Now, do Spezia get sucked in because they’re six points clear of the drop Matty, but Verona and Sampdoria, I’m not sure many people would’ve had them for the drop.
Matty:
Yeah, I think Verona is a team that, they’re a scrappy team. I don’t know if they’ll be able to turn it around, it did seem like they had a really, really rough stretch this season. I feel like they’re better than five points and I think Sampdoria probably better than six points. But I don’t know if Spezia is going to be able to get sucked down, because they have played really, really well at home this season. They’ve been finding ways to score against really good teams, especially at home. So I don’t know if they get sucked down there. We’ll see how Lecce can do in the second half of this season. They’ve been playing quite well as well, so we’ll see.
It’s tough for me to say what’s going to change on the bottom of this table. I still have Bologna to get relegated and they’re not even on this list.
Flash
Yeah, I don’t know, you throw that away. Bologna are not getting relegated because they’re scoring goals and they’ve got a bit of fight in them. Mina, does anybody get sucked into this because on the numbers, you’ve got Spezia at six points clear at -110. That means they must be like maybe -125 to stay up. I mean, I have Spezia to stay up and then bottom three going. If not, if you say to me that one of them or two of them can stay up, they’ve got to put some wins together, which means we can then probably get some good odds on them just winning an individual game.
Mina:
I mean, to be honest with you, Hellas Verona, they’ve been selling some of their best talents every season, so it’s becoming harder and harder for them to really hold onto Serie A when this is the way that they operate at the moment. Even the likes of Sofyan Amrabat they sold, and look where he is now and look what he’s doing now at Fiorentina, and obviously for the Moroccan national team. So for me, I think it’s just about time that they go down because they haven’t really operated in a way that’s shown much ambition.
Sampdoria as well, I mean they’ve tried to change coaches, they’ve looked elsewhere, they’ve done everything they can, but they just don’t have the talent right now to really creep out. So for me, Cremonese as well, it’s not a side that has enough for Serie A, frankly speaking. I think Spezia does though.
If there’s two teams that I think could get sucked in from those, it looks like Lecce and Monza, I’m still not sure. Monza has been doing really well with their new coach now and they are building steam. There is still a part of me that thinks if they do start collecting, I don’t know, perhaps two on the bounce, two losses, then I wonder if they’ll just fall back into a psychological hole again, so I’m not sure about them. Sassuolo have enough, Spezia have enough, it’s just whether or not Sampdoria is going to go down. It’s a legendary team, will they join Genoa in Serie B? It’s going to be interesting.
Flash
Could you imagine? That’s a great, I might even have to just cover that just for the derby. Okay, let’s go. Let’s leave that, let’s have a little look at the records of how we left it. We was in profit, only just by a little heads above the parapet, but we were in profit for the records, so let’s get that up. There you go, 2.57. Nothing between myself, Mina, Matty, parlay’s obviously letting us down but we will be going into that, and obviously there’s prop of the week as well.
Let’s kick on with the first game. We’ve got five games for you get yourselves in the chat. Here we go, the first one is going to be team that are fourth from bottom, Spezia hosting Atalanta, Spezia at +365, Atalanta at -140. Spezia double chance at +120, Spezia get something out the game. The under and over is set at 2.5, but they’re saying that over 3 at -135, they’re expecting 3 goals at -135. Spezia just to score are -200, so give Spezia 1. Atalanta are -150 to score twice.
Mina, Spezia could come out the traps here. And the other one is that we may see goals because teams may be a little bit lackadaisical.
Mina:
Yeah, I mean we saw that, we were discussing this actually off air, because we were saying how when it all starts up again like we saw after the summer, there was just some really interesting defending going on, it was awful to watch. And always when teams have a break it takes a while to build up the momentum and to go back to defending as a unit, with everyone knowing exactly what to do. Atalanta didn’t have such a great time in the off season with their friendlies, they didn’t really get to show what needs to be shown really to feel like they can be confident coming back in. Spezia at home, we know that they are very good at home, much better than they are away from their pitch. But this is all Matty, you just know that he’s got [inaudible 00:10:58], right?
Flash
Yeah, he loves Atalanta on the road and not at home. The other one I’ve got to tell you is, it says over 2.5 at -135. You think there’s no clean sheets and both to score and over, that’s at +110. So Matty, you’re probably better off not even going anywhere near the under or over. I mean, have you got any clean sheets here or is it just Atalanta, they go there, they win the game, and is -140 like a little parlay piece or something strong enough to go in a single?
Matty:
Spezia is a very interesting team to me, and they’re night and day home and away. And this game being at home, they have scored and actually hit both teams scored in 86% of their home games this year, and Atalanta has scored two or more goals and four of the last five games against opponents in the bottom half of the table in Serie A. Three straight meetings saw both teams to score and more than 3 goals. So to me here, I’m actually going to take the alternate line and I’m just going to play over 3, which I believe is +115. So I’m not going to worry about both teams to score and over in this one, I think Atalanta could score 3 goals in this game. I think they could win 3:0.
I do think Spezia are able to manage at least one goal in this game, but I’m just going for the alternate line here. We’ve seen some very, very high score scoring meetings between these teams. We saw 3:1 in May, we saw a 5:2 last year and a 3:1 last year. I definitely think Spezia are going to find the net in this game and this game just scream goals to me, especially being the first game back for these two teams.
Flash
Yeah, it’d be interesting now, Atalanta do attack it to be honest, but Spezia need to just get a few wins early on and then they can start building and experimenting for next season, because a lot of people would’ve had Spezia to go down.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks of this first game back in 2023. Yeah, I see goals as well. I see this [inaudible 00:12:46], but I couldn’t pick the winner because it could go crazy. You know what Spezia are like. So let’s have a little look at the official picks.
Mina:
Yeah, but I feel like [inaudible 00:12:53] forward line it’s not that green at the moment. You never know.
Flash
Yeah, you just never know with Spezia though, do you? Spezia are one of them teams who could go 2:0 and lose 4:2. You’ve gone over 3 at +115, are you not happy to go maybe over 2.5 with both teams to score at +110, Matty?
Matty:
I do think that’s a really good bet, but with Atalanta being on the road, I do always feel like there’s that factor where they could score 3 goals themselves. And then if it’s 2:0 at any point in this game, I would just be kicking myself if I took both teams to score over, because then I would need Spezia to score instead of either team to score, and I definitely think that’s on the table for this game. I fancy Spezia to score but I’d rather just play it a little bit safer and take the over 3 in this one.
Flash
Okay, no worries. If I had gun to the head, and obviously I don’t want to do that on January 2nd, but would you say that Atalanta do win this game and at -140, they could be a parlay piece?
Matty:
Yeah, I definitely think they should win this game. I don’t see any reason for them not to win this game. I think Spezia could definitely play a little scrappy, put up a fight, but I think Atalanta should get the job done at the end of the day here.
Flash
Okay, let’s move on to game number two, because again they love giving us early gifts, and I don’t even think it’s a trap, Lecce +275, Lazio massive +110. Love them on the road, everyone’s rested, everyone should be back. I think there’s goals in this game, so we look at the under or over 2.5, over 2, just 2, not 2.5, so 2 is a push, but it’s at -135, so they’re expecting the 3 goals. Lazio to score twice Matty is it +135, I love Lazio at +110, I love Lazio to score twice at +135.
Matty:
So Lazio being on the road in this game, I still don’t trust them. And the thing that concerns me about this, did they over perform their expectations in the first half of the year? They scored 26 goals, they only gave up 11 goals. But they got knocked out of Europa League, now they’re in Conference League. Lecce has picked up a point in five of their last six home games. And the biggest thing to me that I can’t really wrap my head around is Lazio actually have a negative expected goal differential on the road. They’re expecting 1.16 goals for and 1.5 goals against, but they actually scored 1.71 and only conceded 0.57. So to me, those are numbers that typically throughout the season get closer to the mean and should average out, and we haven’t seen that average out for Lazio in this season yet. I mean, there’s two different components here. They’re either going to be a team that over performs all season long, or eventually they’re going to be a normal team here and come back down to earth.
And so for me, that’s the only reason I’m going to pass on this game, is because I don’t know if they’re over performing or they’re actually this good. How they played in Europa League leads me to believe that they are over performing a little bit in Serie A, but it’s still a big question mark to me, and I know you guys aren’t going to agree with me on this one. So this is a pass for me.
Flash
Oh, I’m glad it’s a pass for you because Mina, I actually put down this being my banker. And then calm yourself down, rather than have two units just on Lazio winning, I’m going to have probably two bets in the game. I just see Lazio being ready, and remember they’re sitting there in fourth place ready to pounce on a Champions League opportunity. Not just because they’ve been so good, but so many teams around them have been average.
Mina:
That’s also very true. A lot of teams have been pretty average which is why you’ve seen Lazio and Juventus manage to claw back points. Lazio did go down, had some tricky games at the end of the season, obviously that big loss to Juventus as well. But if you guys remember, they were without Zaccagni, they’ve been without Immobile for a while, so they’ve had quite a few absences to really contend with. And then we saw sometimes that their defense can break apart if they are not defending as a unit.
Away from home, I think they’ve been a pretty good side. And for me, I think with Immobile back, with Zaccagni back, Anderson, Milinkovic-Savic, I think there’s enough there, especially when Maurizio Sarri has time to really work with, he’s somebody who’s really exceptional with time. So he really uses that as a way to study and he’ll be thinking about this and overthinking about this a lot. So he’ll try to find a way to break down the low block that Lecce will probably try to do. Lecce have a great midfielder in Hjulmand and I think that he’ll be difficult to contend with.
So I don’t see them Lazio necessarily getting three or four goals, but I do see them getting two. So to me, this would be a win, it would be a 2:0 for me, and honestly I can’t see enough in Lecce frontline to really break down that unit, because they’re just so tight and compact and move so brilliantly Lazio.
So for me, Sarri hasn’t taken it seriously in the Europa League because he doesn’t think the team’s big enough and he’s spoken about it. There’s just not enough depth to really contend with different competitions. And I feel like there’s a part of me that thinks there’s a sneaky feeling that he just wants to concentrate on Serie A and that’s it, doesn’t care about anything, not even the Coppa Italia. But for me, this was the first thing I looked at when I placed a bet, this game.
Flash
Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, it jumps off the screen at me. I’m thinking, Lazio far too strong, they’ve got the spine is far too strong. They’re mobile, they’ve got energy, I mean they’ve got energy of players who could come in or could come off the bench. So obviously, I just see that Lazio score twice, so I thought the +135 was a winner. And then I’d go back to my old saying, if Lazio score twice, they win the game, so then I’m getting plus money. I thought they’d be like -120, especially being away from home. So yeah, I thought this was a real one for us to get our teeth into very, very early.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, it’s Lecce versus Lazio. I double dipped. So Mina, you went for Lazio money line at +110, Lazio team total over 1.5 at +135. Copy and paste, I did exactly the same. I went for Lazio money line +110, Lazio team total over 1.5 at +135. I mean, I think that the team total’s better than maybe Lazio to win and over 1.5. Could you go with Lazio and under 3.5? It’s one of those. Matty is just going to sit on the fence because he just wants to see a little bit more of Lazio I guess, not Lecce.
Let’s move on to game number three, because he, it’s a massive game. It’s a massive game. And if you are a fan of this show, you’ll know why, because it’s Roma who we don’t like against Bologna who Matty won’t even have anything to do with, because Roma at -160, Bologna +460, the draw is at +290. Let’s have a little look at the goals over 2.5, it’s at +105, so they say there’s going to be under 2 goals.
Let’s start with you Mina because you don’t like Roma, you don’t like the way they play, you don’t like what they stand for. And as for the manager, you’ve got no good words for him neither.
Mina:
Well, usually I’ve been a fan of Mourinho really over his career, but I just feel like him at Roma is a little bit, it’s definitely dull to watch, and considering there’s so much talent there, it is a team that just doesn’t really seem to have an understanding, there’s no in-game management for once. He has a tactic, he goes forward with it, and if it needs to be changed he really doesn’t do it. He manages like for like changes so it doesn’t really affect the game.
Going forward, you have Zaniolo who plays only for himself a lot of the time. I mean, Tammy Abraham is having a problem scoring goals, you hope at the moment that he’ll go back to doing that. I think they lost Wijnaldum to injury and that could have been a guy that would’ve really made the difference for them. And without Dybala they’ve been really bad in creating anything as well. But the good news is that Dybala is back, and actually he came back early despite the fact that he won the World Cup with Argentina, managing pretty much nothing more than a penalty really, but at least he’s back.
Flash
What a good penalty it was though.
Mina:
It was a great penalty, it was indeed. But he’s back and it was good of him to cut his holiday short for this. And it is being played at home, and you know what Roma like, at home, it’s back, this is a great game for them to really show what they can do, what they’ve worked on now in their time off.
The thing is obviously Bologna lost Sinisa Mihajlovic, their former coach. This is the side that is deeply in pain and desperate to honor their former coach. They already had started to pick up steam, they won I think four of their last five games before we broke up for the World Cup. And so there is a part of me that thinks, they’ve scored at least 2 goals in five of their last six matches. This is not a side that right now is down and out. So I think there’s a lot of goals. Usually when Roma’s involved, I think there’s no goals involved, but this time I do think there’s a lot of goals. I just didn’t know which way you go with this, so I left this alone.
Flash
Okay. Well obviously, we’ve got Roma you can’t really trust, but at home, start of a new year, turn over the page, you start afresh. Do we start afresh with our opinion about Bologna? Because Bologna are quite feisty, they’ve got spirit, and they do score goals. Matty, can we get you on this Bologna train?
Matty:
So let’s just pretend like there’s no names on the screen real quick, okay, we’ll just pretend like Roma and Bologna aren’t there, and just reading the raw numbers here. So in seven games at home this season, the home team, Roma, they’ve scored seven goals and only conceded five. Bologna on the flip side of that, scored eight goals and gave up 19 in seven road games. But we can break this down a little bit differently, because in the last five matches, Bologna actually acquired seven more points than Roma in five games, and in the last 10 games they only have one less point than Roma. And Roma has only beaten Bologna by more than one in the last 10 head to head. So while Bologna was absolutely horrible to start the season, in the last 10 games, they really started to come on, and the last five games before the break they were playing excellent, and they seem to always play Roma really well.
And I think that when you see this number on the screen, -1 and +1, the first question is, is this a trap for Roma? And going through looking that, spoiler alert, but Flash and Mina did not take Roma, it was like okay, this probably is a trap. So break down the numbers a little bit more and I really like Bologna in this game. The more I look at this, the more I can’t talk myself out of it. They very well might lose this game, but there’s a very, very small chance that they lose this game by more than one goal, in any way, shape or form you look at this. I mean, you can break it down into Roma obviously having a better record here and more points, but at home in seven games, they’ve only scored seven goals. Obviously, that’s one per match. Even Bologna is scoring more than one goal a game on the road, I think that’s pretty impressive.
So I may eat my words here, and obviously Bologna has never really been a kind team to me, but I think they can get the job done here, and I can’t believe the first round of 2023 I’m actually taking them. But I do really think that this team has started to come along a little bit and I think they could be catching Roma and kind of thump them on the head here before Roma is able to get it together for the rest of the season.
Flash
I like Roma to score twice, just because they’re at full strength, they’ve got everybody available to them. And on paper, I know they won’t play on paper, but they should be scoring a couple of goals themselves. And then I look at them at the back, they’re no great shakes, and Bologna will keep going. I mean Roma 2:0 up, there’s no guarantees that Roma are actually going to go ahead and take all three points.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks then, because obviously in the chat, they like Arnautovic at +300. The -1-
Mina:
[inaudible 00:25:07], draw no bet, because that would be an interesting one.
Flash
That’ll be about +290, +300 for Bologna, draw no but, then you’d probably go with draw at +290 in the first place.
Mina:
Well, Matty’s convinced me, because I do think that trying to honor Sinisa Mihajlovic, I do think that having had time to work on it, Lorenzo Pellegrini is a miss for Roma, that’s the one.
Flash
Did Mihajlovic play for Lazio?
Mina:
Yeah.
Flash
Yeah, but what I’m saying is obviously Roma’s arch enemies in that ground is Lazio, so I’m just wondering if they’re going to be pumped up just to put a pin in their balloon. Let’s not go down the sentiment route anyway, because that doesn’t get us absolutely anywhere because we can be in love with teams and they don’t deliver. So Bologna +1 at -130, you could go maybe what about Bologna plus 0.5 and the double chance?
Matty:
I looked at that for a really long time, I even looked at them to double chance in the first half. I don’t like the price. I think +1 is a lot safer because they very well could lose this game, I just think there’s a very, very small chance it’s by more than one goal.
Flash
Yeah, I think the game’s 2:1, but just in case Roma go completely ballistic and win 3:0, I just thought that the over 2.5 at +105 was a way to go because I obviously keep the 3:0 on my side, even though I do think both teams score and over. Danny Lopez is saying that Bologna cards looks well.
Also, let’s move on to game number four of five, because we could be polarized here or we are looking at a couple of numbers that we should just get our teeth ripped right into. Cremonese host Juve, Cremonese at +425, Juve at -145. Is Juve another leg of a parlay maybe in with Atalanta and Lazio? Juve to score twice is at -125, the under/over is set at 2.5, but if they think there’s 3 goals, you’re going to get handsomely paid at +100. Cremonese not to score is where I want to start this conversation Mina, Cremonese not to score +125.
Mina:
I find it very hard for any team to keep a clean sheet when this is the first match in a long time. It’s about whether or not you can get your unit together. And I don’t know, there’s no Bonucci, there’s no Cuadrado, not that Cuadrado is my favorite player in the world, but there are five big absences for Juventus, obviously, none more important than Vlahovic and Bonucci. So this to me makes it a little bit of a weaker game. Defensively, I don’t know, I don’t know whether I’m looking at a 2:1 or a 1:0, this is a thing that I’ve been trying to negotiate. I think it’s going to be under 3 goals, that’s how I’m looking at it. I think it’ll be tight, I just don’t know whether or not Cremonese can do enough to annoy Juventus. Sorry, under 3.5 goals should I say.
So this is an interesting one for me, because I do think that Juventus have a lot to prove, because obviously we’ve spoken about a lot of things have happened off the pitch for them, but they do have next-gen players that have been integrated to the first team. So the youngsters, we’re talking about Fagioli obviously, Iling Jr who could come in as well. They’ve got a really great midfield right now that’s operating well with Miretti, Locatelli, and Fagioli. Chiesa’s back, that’s the main guy, Chiesa is everything in that team, and it’s about whether or not he’s going to start. But if he starts, he makes the absolute difference, especially against Cremonese. Milik up front with Kean who wants to prove that he is actually somebody to be considered, and he’s been doing really well in the last few matches, before everyone broke up obviously for the World Cup.
So for me, I think this is Juventus win, I think it’s under 3.5 goals. That’s the only way that I could really find value on this honestly speaking. But I didn’t want to bet on Cremonese not scoring a goal, just because I’m not sure the unit is all perfect at the moment of the back.
Flash
Yeah. First of all, Mina, does Di Maria, is he another one that’s out or will he play?
Mina:
Well, he just came back and today’s his first training session, so I think it would be irresponsible to start him, but I certainly think that he could come off the bench. The worry is that, do you remember when Pogba won the World Cup and he said it was really difficult for him to get motivated again for club football? And I wonder whether a lot of Argentines like Paredes and Di Maria will be feeling like that as well. Just like we’ve done it, we’re tired, we’re still celebrating, so we’re not in that frame of mind to fight. Especially Cremonese is a hard team to fight against, because they’re going to defend like monsters.
Flash
Yeah, let me interrupt you there, because that may lead us into a bet. Matty, you need to find us the corner total, because when I’ve seen Juve away from home this year, they suck the team on, they stay in the game, they probably only have two corners themselves, whereas Cremonese are scrapping for their lives. Do we expect Cremonese maybe to have more corners than Juve in this game, even though Juve will probably be the winners?
Matty:
It looks like it is, 9.5 +102.
Flash
And what about Cremonese +2 or something?
Matty:
No, they’re only plus 0.5 -120.
Flash
Okay. All right, Matty, break down this game for me, because we’ve got Mina edging towards Juve to win but no more than 3 goals.
Matty:
Yeah, the thing that is actually confusing to me about this game is, I don’t understand why the Lazio v Lecce total is at 2 goals and this one’s at 2.5. This is by far the lowest graded total, this might be the lowest total I’ve seen all season, or lowest graded total I’ve seen all season. I really just don’t understand why it’s at 2.5. The over 1.5 goals only grades out at 36% for these teams. The league average for over 1.5 goals is 78%, so we’re sitting well, well, well below half as efficient as an average game here. Cremonese easy are scoring 0.29 goals at home, Juventus are scoring 0.57 on the road and they’re also only conceding 0.57 goals. So to me, I took the obvious bet here, which is Cremonese not to score on this game.
And it’s hard to argue anything Mina said and I may be shooting myself in the foot, because Juventus is not at full strength here. I mean obviously, first game back could be a little bit confused defensively or in the midfield or they could catch a fast break or whatnot. But I do think that’s the obvious bet on this board, and I still am scratching my head at why this total was at 2.5. I don’t know if somebody knows something that we don’t know or what, but I don’t see this game having 3 goals. I don’t see how you could argue anything for the over in this game. This just screams under, this screams you Juventus probably win this game 1:0, maybe 2:0, depending on what time they score. But I went with the obvious one here which is Cremonese not to score in this matchup.
Mina:
I think maybe with [inaudible 00:32:13] values of the squad because this is the biggest gulf between the value of the squad, like Juventus is the most expensive and Cremonese I think is the cheapest in terms of value.
Matty:
Yeah.
Flash
What about Juve win to nil? I mean, what were the odds on the Juve and under 3.5, I mean they were like decent, weren’t they?
Mina:
Yeah, they were pretty decent at the time.
Flash
I think it’s around the +130. Yeah, I agree. I see Juve maybe winning 1:0, or being up 1:0 and then maybe get one in the last 10 minutes if need be, if they break away.
Matty:
I also just don’t see both teams scoring in this game. And that’s another figure here that I wrote down, and we’re only hitting both team to score in an average of 22% of games for these teams, home and away, and both teams to score NO is only -120. And so I just am a little bit confused by the odds of this game, I just really don’t agree with them, and I don’t really see the reasoning on why this is set at 2.5 or why the both teams to score price is the way it is.
Flash
And the other motivation for Juve is, and especially for Milan, Juve, Lazio, Inter and Atalanta is that Napoli have to go to Inter. So these teams can win their games knowing that Inter and Napoli both can’t take maximum points, so they either eat in or they put themselves away from a really big rival. Yeah, I think there’s plenty meat on the bone there to find the right blend, maybe a lineup check on how strong you go. But really like Mina’s Juve to win and under 3.5, and also I think Juve win to nil will probably be around the same price as well.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Chiesa back is massive by the way.
Mina:
Right.
Flash
Yeah, gives them drive and energy. Juve and under 3.5 at +130. Cremonese team total under nor 0.5, so Cremonese not to score at +125. And we’ve given you the others, maybe the banker is under 2.5 goals in the game at -120. But then if there’s under 2.5, Juve win the game. And remember, you could also put Juve in a parlay with Atalanta as well.
Let’s move on to probably one of the biggest games, if not the biggest game in the whole of Europe this week. Maybe only Chelsea v Mans City are going to rival it, and I’ll probably still come out on Inter versus Napoli. Inter +113, Napoli +210, remember Napoli, eight points clear. Napoli double chance at -150, Napoli to score twice is at +135. Don’t rule out Inter though, because they are a class outfit on their day, and again they know they win this game, they eat into the leader’s lead.
Inter to score twice is it -110. Over 3 at +110, are we going to see a goal fest here Matty?
Matty:
I think this could be the exact opposite of what we just mentioned in the last game. And yeah, the numbers for this game are really, really good for goals especially here. These two teams are averaging 3.22 goals per match, and I see that Napoli team total at 1.5 at +135. Every single time it’s been at 1.5 this year, I mean if you would’ve blindly taken it, you would’ve been up multiple thousands of dollars by now this season. So I wouldn’t argue against that one, but I don’t know who’s going to come out on top of this game. We have really good numbers for the over, we have fantastic numbers for both teams to score.
The only thing that kind of pushes back against the over numbers are the head-to-head numbers, which I don’t weigh too heavily here, but the over 2.5 is only 41% in the last 20 meetings for these two teams. But I think we could see a slug fest in this game, both teams to score is hitting in 57% of matches as well. And what I really like about this game is actually corners, and I haven’t seen a corner line for this game yet, but over 10.5 corner is going to grade out really high for this game. This is going to be the highest average corner-
Flash
10.5, do you think it’ll be that high?
Matty:
It’s probably going to be a 10. But these two teams are averaging 10.5 corners a game and the league average is 9.2, so we’re well above average here. And let’s see if I can actually find a line on that, and I haven’t seen one yet.
Flash
I fancy Inter have more corners than Napoli. The beauty of this game is if Napoli do score, Inter are going to go completely bonkers. Over 3 goals is +110. Both teams to score and over, because obviously if there’s only 3 goals in the game, one of them got a win 3:0, otherwise you get both teams to score and over is at -110.
Mina, I don’t see clean sheets here. I couldn’t pick the winner. If you put a gun to my head, I’d go with the home side.
Mina:
No, I mean Napoli are undefeated this season, in the Champion League, in Serie A, they’re just completely undefeated. They’re the only team in the top five leagues because PSG just lost as well, to be undefeated, so I wouldn’t be against at the moment.
Also, here’s the thing, Kvaratskhelia is back, and he’s had a lot of time to really get himself back into the mood to scoring. They’ve been amazing so far in the friendlies. There’s also Osimhen. Lautaro Martinez, Lukaku, bad World Cup each. I know that Lautaro Martinez at the end of the day, he created the last chance for Argentina, he’s just a won World Cup, but he hasn’t been amazing. And he’s a streaky player, he’s either brilliant for five matches or he’s not.
I think the key player in all these matches has always been Brozovic and he’s not probably going to play tomorrow. So again, that’s a huge loss. They’ve been all right without Brozovic for a while, but against Napoli, he’s really important, and not having him there makes a difference for me anyway. Napoli have pretty much a full team, and even if they’re not playing Osimhen up front, there’s Raspadori, there’s just so many changes that you can make, and they make very good changes. You just know that there’s one yellow card and Inzaghi is going to start taking off his players. So for me, this is a Napoli win.
The only thing is if it’s not a win, it’s a draw. I can’t see Inter winning this at all, to be honest with you. I don’t have that much faith in the home side, especially not in their first game back. I don’t know why I’m saying that, maybe I’m being a little bit hard on them because they do have a beautiful squad, certainly higher in value than the one that Napoli have. It’s just that right now, I don’t understand why Napoli would all of a sudden fall to a team that has really been struggling, and struggling especially in all the big matches. So they’ve really disappointed against Juventus, they’ve disappointed against Milan, so I don’t know whether this is the match where they’re suddenly going to show up against the league leaders who have been invincible so far.
Flash
Yeah. I mean, you just put a pin in my balloon there. Matty, are you saying over 9.5 corners at -110?
Matty:
I will let you guys know if I’m going to play it. I’ve looked into it a little bit more-
Flash
I think we should, look at 10.5. How can we not play it?
Matty:
Yeah, all right. I’m going to get peer pressured into this bet, but yeah, it’s 9.5 at -115. I think it’s really good value, especially for Inter at home, they’ve just been putting on clinics most of the season, especially against good sides. Even against Bologna, they gave up four against Bologna, and that one ended with eight. So especially against the good sides here, they’re getting a lot of corners, so we’ll add that one for myself.
Flash
Okay, can you make sure you add that on the spreadsheet as well so that it helps my graphics team when it comes to the records?
Matty:
Yes, just added it.
Mina:
Last six matches between the two sides, Napoli have never won, so that can help you.
Flash
Napoli have never won?
Mina:
No, not in the last six matches against Inter, they’ve never won. It’s either been a draw or it’s been an Inter win.
Flash
I do like the look of this game as a live betting as well, because Napoli go up, you can then maybe have a double chance on Inter, Inter go 2:1 up, you can come back on Napoli, you could end up having both sides and win both ways.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, but I think this is one of those, maybe a little lineup check, but I definitely see goals. The line set at 3, but both teams to score and over is near at the same price, so that’s what I did. I went both teams to score and over 2.5 at -110 and then I don’t care who wins. Napoli draw no bet is at +130. Also, what about Napoli double chance at -150 in maybe a parlay with Atalanta at -140 and Juve at -150. I mean, obviously we’re not doing that, but it’s something for you to pick, and maybe when you do a little bit of homework, you could go with that.
And Matty is going to add over 9.5 corners in the game at -115, I quite like that myself. I’m not going to jump on his bandwagon, but I may well do that. And if I do, then I will add that on BetUS TV.
So make sure you follow at BetUS TV because that’s where all the updates, any added picks we’ll be on there. If there’s any things we don’t like or any news that you should know, then that’s where you need to be. Also, I’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again, because we’ve got the Premier League coming up. There’ll be no Premier League at the weekend, it’s the FA Cup, but we got La Liga and Serie A again on Thursday. And the Bundesliga, well they can join us anytime they like, because they love a holiday.
Let’s give these a little bit of a Q&A. You’ve got anything you want to say, now is the time to say, any opinions. Jonathan Nelson, Danny Lopez, anybody else? CR7, both teams to score and over 2.5, he likes that in the Inter v Napoli game. I’m waiting. Okay, here we go.
Okay, questions are not quick enough, so let’s have a little look at all the official picks please. And obviously, there’s one I’ve added, and the Queen, she loves adding as well. So first of all, we’re going to add one to Matty’s and that’s over 9.5 corners at -115 in the Inter v Napoli game. Danny, I will come back to you on that question. Matty’s gone Spezia v Atalanta over 3 at +115. Cremonese team total under 0.5 at +125 as they host Juve. By the way, this is not a misprint, Bologna +1 at -130 under Matty’s name.
Now, Mina’s gone Lazio money line at +110, I’ve copied and pasted. Mina’s gone for Lazio team total over 1.5 at +135, I’ve copied and pasted again. Roma v Bologna over 2.5 at +105, just in case Roma go bananas and win 3:0. Inter v Napoli both teams to score and over 2.5 at -110. Mina’s gone Napoli draw no bet at +130, and Juve and under 3.5 at +130. That’s one of those, if it’s tight in the first 20 minutes, you have definitely got the right value.
Quick one from Danny, Udinese, is it a get right spot against Empoli? Mina, I’m not too sure really whether we can trust Udinese or Empoli first game back.
Mina:
I do trust Udinese to win this match, to be honest with you. I think they’ll probably concede a goal because they’re just that team and they probably won’t switch it on until later. They are playing at home, so this is what gives me faith. The only thing is that I looked at this game a lot because I wanted to bet on it, but I didn’t find the value. So if you find something that gives you value, then I would definitely take it because this is going to be-
Flash
I’m glad you said that. You do that so subconsciously of leading me into it, because it’s all about value, Jonathan Nelson, because I saw Torino money line, do you want to take that type of price Matty? And also, why are we not mentioning Milan?
Matty:
I don’t like the price on Milan this week, I really don’t.
Flash
See, you got to find the value.
Mina:
And Salernitana is actually a really tricky team. They’re not a team that’s like a Lecce or a Cremonese, they can really put you to the test. And right now, I feel like Milan have had a dodgy preseason, so not pre-season, but you know what I mean, they haven’t been showing their best. And you’ve got Theo Hernandez, Giroud, I wonder if there’s going to be a World Cup hangover. So I’m not sure about them right now, and Salernitana have been together for a while.
Matty:
And plenty friendly together as well.
Mina:
I worry about that team. I don’t know if it’s an easy win for Milan.
Flash
Yeah, just be careful Idris, I think we’ve given you plenty of meat on the bone in plenty of the other games, and there’s plenty parlay pieces as well you could put together. If you do fancy Milan or Torino and you think they’re not great value, then just stick them in with something like Atalanta, something like Juve win away, and then you don’t care. But if Juve win away, why wouldn’t you go with Mina, Juve win and under 3.5 at plus money rather than the -140.
Okay, I think it’s time to say goodbye. Remember, we’ve got the Premier League coming up with Mark Stinchcombe and Mark O’Hare very, very soon. So get yourself a cup of tea, stick your slippers on and enjoy. From the Queen of Serie A, Mina Rsouki, and the Bologna lover and batter in 2023-
Matty:
Oh, no.
Mina:
He hates it.
Flash
Oh, he cannot live with himself. He doesn’t even know he’s having an out of body experience.
Matty:
They better win the game. They better win the game, it’s all I’m saying.
Mina:
I’m going to bet on them. I’m going to bet on them.
Matty:
Okay, good. Now I feel better.
Flash
Make sure you add it. If you add any bets with BetUS TV, please put them on the spreadsheet.
From everyone in the chat, Happy New Year again 2023. I won’t be saying it again on this show, so enjoy. May all your bets be winners from BetUS, we’ll see you again very, very soon. You take care.
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