Mina:
Yeah, absolutely I paper over the cracks, that’s all you need to do. Cremonese really has showed itself to be a very difficult side to beat and I know you hate them.
Flash:
No, you know that I was actually with Juve and I was with the clean sheet as well. I don’t hate them. My eyes hate them, my pocket loves them because they keep winning.
Mina:
They never play fantastic football. Juventus have never been a side under Allegri that have played fantastic football. Even when they were reaching Champions League final, most of the time they’re like, how did they do that? But what I like about them is that they always know when to be cynical. And Milik for example, right now is winning the awards for always finding a way through because he’s actually very, very efficient. Now, this is a team that’s got a lot of absences, players that couldn’t even start because they played a World Cup final like Rabiot, but there’s so many new players to introduce from Pogba and Vlahovic when they come back from injury. Obviously Di Maria is ready now to return to the squad so that should be very interesting. So, right now they’re relying on a lot of youth so you’re not seeing the best Juventus side, but I do think that they will come through.
Flash:
Yeah, Mina I think that’s rose tinted glasses to be honest. I love the fact that I’ve got a few good teams. The Inter Napoli game, although was only 1:0 I thought into were fantastic. I thought Napoli were very good as well. There seems to be three teams that are really good. I’m happy to put a line through the likes of Lazio and Roma, Atalanta with Zapata. He limped off after 25 minutes, I wonder if them being 2:0 down had anything to do with it Mattie?
Mattie:
I still think they have enough weapons in the tank to get the job done. And I will say until he came off the pitch, I want to say he was about 90% of their attack in the first 20 minutes of that game. After he came off they struggled for a little bit there, but they started kicking on all cylinders after about the 60th minute mark and finished up and were able to get a point out of that game. So, it’d be interesting to see how Atalanta lines up heading to Bologna this week, but I don’t think our hope is lost on Atalanta at this point.
Flash:
Yeah, see I’m happy to put a line through them. In fact, I’m just replying in the chat, so make sure you’ve got any questions, you get yourselves in the chat. Any opinions then that’s your platform. No, I didn’t do the video because I couldn’t find an edge in that game. So again, I’ve just basically-
Mina:
What does drawing a line through them mean? What do you mean?
Flash:
Well, basically I want to see them improve. So first of all, I’ve got square peg in round holes for Lazio. Lazio cruising 1:0 at halftime, got completely destroyed for 45, 47 minutes by Lecce. Now, that cannot happen, you cannot be in a winning position and then have a team like Lecce completely dominate you. And I’ll say square pegs in round holes because the right back I thought might have been the bus driver, they gave him a shirt and said go and play right back because he just did not defend. A passenger midfield who did average at first half, second half he was like Lecce’s best player. They kept giving the ball away so no, line through them. Line through Atalanta because I thought that they were… That is what you call papering over the cracks. It could have been three or four down, got back 2:2. For me they were far too lucky. By the way, Statto might be a good time to mention Inter for +700 to win Serie A. It’s the-
Mina:
[inaudible 00:05:20].
Flash:
It’s the 5th of January. I thought I’d mentioned it now. Okay. Inter +700. Mattie, would you be interested in a little bit of 700?
Mattie:
I don’t think it’s bad value. I just think the tricky part about this is looking over Napoli’s schedule, and I mean six at their next eight games they should win at the very least.
Flash:
Oh yeah, it was very good.
Mattie:
I think that that’s what makes it a little complicated. Maybe you’ll be able to get better odds in a couple weeks, maybe they’ll be worse who knows. So at +700 I don’t think it wins, but I do think it’s good value and who knows it may come down to the wire once again this season.
Flash:
I’ll tell you the other one though Mina, if we could find Serie A champions without Napoli because then that’s a three horse race or maybe even at a two horse race with both the sides from the San Siro. I’ll like that touch of paper. Are you ready to go off?
Mattie:
I know where this one’s going.
Mina:
If Napoli don’t win it’s between Milan and Juve and Inter I would say that. But for a team that’s conceded 22 goals so far in 16 matches, when you’re looking at the fact that a team like Juventus who’s above them in the list and only conceded seven, it worries me. I’m not going to lie. Especially when Skriniar hasn’t committed his future and he’s probably not going to or de Vrij. Where are these guys going to be? They still have Champions League to contend with. It’s going to be many matches for them and it’s going to be tight. Lautaro and Lukaku may have not been the ones that depended on with Edin Dzeko, but you can’t rely on him. As for Lukaku and Lautaro we know that they’re in streak here.
They are either having great times or they’re not. So Milan is the team I don’t know how to figure them out because frankly speaking, when I watched them play there are so many errors in the way that they do it. They’re not always a side that I feel like are reliable especially defensively at the moment, and sometimes the energy can cover that but whether or not they’re good enough to do it again, I don’t know. I still think there’s something about Juventus. I still believe in them.
Flash:
Of course you do. And listen [inaudible 00:07:23].
Mina:
Even in the last season. Last season I didn’t, this season is different.
Flash:
I know but you’ll die on your sword. I know you will. Or you will lift it above and say how right you were. I’m not getting involved in that argument.
Mina:
Yes you are.
Flash:
I’m backing out, I’m moon walking out of this one. Let’s have a little look at the records because I was doing okay until I went 0 and four. Obviously I did a few other bets at cash, but that’s no good for my record to be honest. So let’s have a little look please at the records. Just going to make sure that we’ve got everything that we need because we’ve got eight games so we’ve got to make sure that we fly through all of these. Maybe we’ll come back and look at the records a little bit later.
So let’s kick off with the first game because the first game is going to be Juve vs Udinese. Remember we’ve got eight games, get yourselves in the chat. It’s Juve -130. Is that a trap? I mean how are Juve at -130 against an Udinese side who can’t remember the last time they won? And we said that the balloon would pop and they’re at +375 for their visit to Turin. Draw is at + +270. Juve to score twice at -115. Mina, do you see Juve scoring twice with the players they’ve got available to them?
Mina:
No. I think Juve scoring twice is just always terrible a bet to take because frankly what they’re known for especially in Italy is what we call [foreign language 00:08:47] which is basically always winning about 1:0. That is always their name. Even in 1998 when they reached the Champions League you had their midfield Di Livio write 1:0 onto the palm of his hand because that’s exactly the score line that Juventus are famous for. So 2:0 for me is always a tricky one for it. I do think Milik is in brilliant form. We didn’t see the best of Kostic. Obviously this is still a side that needs to integrate some of their best players. Rabiot should start this match hopefully, and then obviously with Locatelli there will still be youngsters taking part. It’s about whether or not Di Maria is there. Udinese hasn’t won it since the 2nd of October. And we don’t know if Deulofeu is available for this match, and of course we know how important he is for this team.
It’s an interesting game because in many ways they’re physically well matched, and they actually play similar styles in the sense they both try to look to counter attack very vertical in their ability. In the last six matches between these two, Juventus have won four times. There’s been one draw and one Udinese win, so usually speaking Juventus have always got Udinese’s number. They are playing at home and they have been better at home although recently they’ve been collecting some really impressive away performances. It’s just that right now they seem to be so good defensively even though it looks like they’re always conceding a shot and they do, they concede many but they do just enough to always keep the back secure. Which is something that I can honestly say isn’t true of all the other teams. Only conceded seven, seven games in a row that they’ve won. Seven games in which they haven’t conceded a single goal. This could be a game in which they do concede one, but I still see a Juventus win.
Flash:
Mattie, I mean I don’t know if I’ve just been hypnotized but Juve at -130 at home against a side that’s not won since early October looks like an absolute gift. Is it?
Mattie:
I don’t know. I don’t want to touch this with the 10 foot pole for a couple reasons. One is, I mean Udinese is responsible for probably half my losses in Serie A this season. And then on the flip side is I am pretty much falling asleep every time Juventus play. I mean, it’s hard to stay awake in some of their games to be honest. But look, I think this is pretty difficult because I do think Udinese are having a bit of a rough patch here but breaking into the numbers, they’ve only lost one of their last seven road games. So even with that said they have two road losses all season. One is against Milan in the first road game of the season, and the last one’s against Napoli.
So I do think they’re definitely capable of catching a draw here. And the number that I think is really interesting is going to be this total at 2.5. Grades out at 63% which is much, much, much better than it graded out against Cremonese yesterday which was probably the lowest grade I saw all season. So I do think there’s a good chance we could see both teams to score in this game. Over 2.5 definitely a possibility here, but I’m not sure exactly how this one’s going to play out so I am staying as far away as I possibly can.
Flash:
Well, I’m just going to put a little P next to Juve because I fancy Juve might win this game, and the -130 maybe should be -150. Yeah, I’m happy to go with Juve especially if I get a positive lineup. But then if I get a positive line-up of maybe Di Maria’s in, Locatelli, Rabiot. Do we know if Vlahovic will be back?
Mina:
Not yet. Not for this match. Out of curiosity Flash, what about a first half win?
Flash:
First half win would probably be around +105. Can you have a look at that Mattie please?
Mattie:
For?
Flash:
Juve to be leading at halftime. I mean, would you go Juve a halftime/fulltime?
Mina:
No, maybe just halftime and then fulltime could be a draw you know.
Mattie:
They are at +145. Sorry.
Flash:
+145 to be leading at halftime?
Mattie:
Yes.
Flash:
Wow, that’s massive isn’t it? What do we think in the chat, do we like Juve at +145? Okay, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because remember Juve have strung a number of wins together and now they’re at home to an Udinese side. I mean, it’d just be Sod’s Law, they come into Turin and get something but -130 Juve and under 4.5 at +100.
Mattie:
I mean think about it, if we do first half Udinese don’t always have such great first halves-
Flash:
No, they don’t. They always come strong last 20, 25 minutes to be fair. Do you like the +145 or Mattie you’re just going to leave it?
Mattie:
No, I’m going to pass.
Flash:
Okay, make sure you follow @BetUSTV because any updated picks maybe a line-up check. You see the big guns have come back after winning or playing the World Cup final and you’ve got to go with Juve at home I guess. Yeah, +145 at halftime or +100 because they don’t win 5:0. So I mean the Juve in under 4.5 at +100 does look like the way to go. Anyway, let’s move on from Juve flying in the last seven games to the side that could well be Napoli’s biggest threats for the Scudetto it’s Monza hosting in Inter. Monza at +465, Inter -185 who were absolutely fantastic at home to Napoli. Napoli were very good as well by the way. Inter could have scored five or six, Dimarco missed a couple that I fancy Mattie would’ve scored. Draw is at +350. The under/over is at three and does that mean that Monza score? Because if they don’t Mattie you’re going to get +150 on the home side scoring. I think that Inter win this game in a free hit of -1 at -110.
Mattie:
Yeah Inter did look really, really good yesterday. I don’t really disagree, the numbers are going to disagree with you a little bit here. Monza is scoring 1.38 goals at home and only conceding one. And on the flip side of that, Inter’s numbers on the road are not very good. They’re scoring 1.88 goals a game, but they’re conceding 2.25 on the road. They haven’t kept a single clean sheet on the road all season, so I would probably pass on Monza not to score in this game. However, I do think that that -1 probably is a free hit. I would expect Inter to score at least two goals in this game. I would be very surprised if Monza are able to manage two in this game.
So I think that -1 is a free hit and if Monza don’t score in this game, you’re definitely going to win that bet. If Monza do score in this game you’re likely going to push, but still have a chance to win. So I think we could see a 2:1, a 3:1, maybe a 2:0. I do think that’s a little less likely and I do think a 1:1 is in the cards, I just don’t really see that panning out especially if Inter play anywhere close to the level they played at yesterday.
Flash:
Yeah, I’m really impressed with some of the performances yesterday. Obviously there’s still a few bug bears like Barella, but Bastoni was absolutely magnificent as well as Dzeko. And the delivery from Dimarco for the winning goal was exactly what we expect the quality to be in Serie A. Monza versus Inter, you’re going to go against Inter or do you think the -110 is a free hit? Mina?
Mina:
I mean, it is. It is a free hit to be honest with you. I mean, especially when you consider their performance against Napoli. Napoli on the other hand, I know that you said that they play well and I agree with you, but usually their passing is a lot faster on usual levels but yesterday I didn’t see that at all against Inter. I thought they were quite slow in the way that they moved and rather predictable, and it was the defending against Kvaratskhelia that I thought was really outstanding. They really managed to nullify his impact on the game and that made all the difference. Frankly speaking, I blame Spalletti. I didn’t think he made the right changes enough to try to change things around. This is an interesting game. Inter away from home I haven’t always been impressed with. Now here’s the thing, Inter historically speaking once they defeat a big team and get a really big win, they start to build themselves a streak.
That’s always the way that they go. It happened last year and the year before. As soon as they manage a big scalp, all of a sudden you see them looking invincible. But on this occasion, I’m not entirely sure because Monza is a tricky team. They hold possession really well. They’re actually the top three in Italian football for holding possession. They’ve grown a lot since their start. They are capable of an upset and I do think they’re capable of a goal. I don’t know, because they hold possession I feel like Inter could counterattack them if they wanted to and they’re very good at doing that because they’re physical and vertical. Inter should win this and they should score two goals, but there’s a part of me that does think Monza will get at least a goal. I don’t know if we’re going to see this fierce ability that we saw against Napoli. I’m not sure we’ll see it against Monza because they tend to be less interested in the smaller matches these days.
Flash:
Inter at -170 to score twice. So before we start, yes we start this game Monza one Inter two because the goal line’s set at three as well but over three is it +105. I mean I think that Monza not to score at +150. I just thinking to win this game, the only problem is the managers substitutions. Sorry?
Mina:
With a clean sheet?
Flash:
Well yeah I mean if I’m going -1, I expect 2:0 rather than 3:0 or 3:1 to be honest, but I just thought it’s a free hit. I’m going to be cheering Inter on especially if I’m brave enough to take the +700 about Inter winning Serie A but I won’t mention that again. Not on this show anyway. Maybe-
Mina:
I just want to remind you that at the start of the season you went with Juventus so you really do need to pick a team.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. Just give me a couple of weeks, I’ll be back on Napoli and then obviously I cannot forget the other team from the San Siro and have Milan and at the end of the season it’ll be I told you so. I have a winning ticket. The only one I won’t go for is Atalanta, Lazio or Roma.
Mattie:
I think I’m the one that has Milan so I’m just keeping my mouth shut over here. We’ll talk about it in a couple weeks.
Flash:
Yeah okay, only celebrate when you’re winning. See myself and Mina we celebrate in defeat as well. Okay, official picks please. Inter at -1 free hit -110. Move on. Let’s go to the next game. I can’t believe it’s on here. In fact I’m going a little sneaky look to see who I can hammer because of why this is on. It’s Salernitana vs Torino. Salernitana +270. Torino +115. Torino were -140 at home in midweek, failed to get the three points and let a lot of people down. Draw is a runner at +220, but the goals over 2.5 goals in the game by [inaudible 00:19:34] as both teams to score an over you’re going to get a bit more but it’s +115. Salernitana at -210 to score. Mina, could you pick the bones out of this game? Is this the game where the draw is probably the runner at +220?
Mina:
Okay. Historically speaking, Salernitana are good at home and terrible away from home. No actually Torino are terrible away from home, but actually Torino’s been doing pretty well away from her this season and actually have been getting all the points. Salernitana are actually good at creating chances, they’re just not great at really taking them and that’s what we saw against Milan. You saw them building something, you saw them getting quite creative with the ball, they had some good chances, they just don’t know how to finish the math. And you don’t think Milan is like a spectacular defense, so frankly speaking you did expect a little bit more. Torino to me can be quite dull to watch as well, so they’re not one of my favorite sides with this team. I think I would go for over 2.5 and both teams to score.
That sounds quite outrageous I know, but to me I think that this could be an interesting game because I don’t trust either defense but I do think that they’re all capable of a loss or two. Physically speaking, I think they’re well matched. Salernitana is going to want to come and do something special also because it’s Torino they’re playing. They like the bigger teams. We saw a performance against Milan, we saw a performance against Juventus and Torino is historically a big side. That’s probably the closest one, but otherwise I wouldn’t know which way to go usually on this.
Flash:
Yeah. What about Torino, has this got 2:2 all over it? ‘Cause I like the draw. I also like Salernitana to have an edge but Mattie you are obviously the reason that we’ve got this graphic up and what pushes you towards goals and do you actually see who could win?
Mattie:
I don’t really know who’s going to win this game, but I mean there are some really, really crucial numbers for this game that I just couldn’t ignore.
Flash:
Oh there we go.
Mattie:
Torino hitting both teams to score in 88% of road matches, Salernitana hitting both teams to score in 63% of home matches. Both teams failed to score home and away at 13%, which is very, very low and Torino is zero clean sheets on the road this season. Salernitana 25% clean sheets at home. These two teams are both averaging 2.88 goals per game home and away. We don’t really see very many games that Salernitana plays in where both teams don’t score at home. Torino the same type of team on the road. We also have some decent numbers head to head, only really two relevant games but we saw a 4:0 Torino again win two years ago.
I think this game might be the dark horse of the entire round. I think this game could have plenty of goals. I think we could see them fly and fly early and often and I really like both teams to score and over 2.5 here, but I’m just going to take this gift that is over 2.5 at +115. Not going to complicate this one. I definitely think we could see a 2:2, 3:1 or 2:1 in this matchup.
Flash:
3:1 being Salernitana at +270. Salernitana at home -135 big and strong Torino you just don’t know what you’re going to get and as they say in the chat, another game I have no idea on. Jonathan Nelson Torino is on my list of pass. I’ll tell you what, between us I think every team apart from maybe Inter and Napoli, Juve and Milan, the rest you’re just flipping [inaudible 00:23:05] sorry?
Mina:
In their last three games Torino has managed under 2.5 goals in general in their games. Do you think that changes something?
Flash:
No because as you say Salernitana they do create, they even create against the best sides. It’s just whether they have a going day and they beat Torino four, you know?
Mina:
Yeah I agree. You’re right. Yeah.
Flash:
Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I want to spend more time on some of the other games. Mattie’s already just made a case, he’s not gone for both teams because obviously he doesn’t need to. It’s over 2.5 at +115. If you want to be a little bit greedy maybe get +150 then it’s both teams are score and over, but for Mattie it’s just 115 plus money over 2.5 goals. Let’s move on to game number four of eight. Spezia back to back home games and this time they’re at +165 as they host Lecce who are at +200. Both of these come off of games where they score twice. The draw is at +195, so that’s an under the magic +200. Spezia to score twice is it at +165. Lecce to score twice is at +195. Mattie, I thought this game was goals. I thought this game is the goals where I couldn’t pick the winner, but again over 2.5 is at +125 why complicate it?
Mattie:
Yeah and I said this on Monday for the show on Monday, but when Spezia is at home I mean both teams to score is just hitting at a ridiculous rate this season. And of course we saw it against Atalanta and the surprising thing about that game was Spezia really should have been up 3:0, and of course that third goal ruled offside and they ended up drawing 2:2. But both teams to score is just a play that if I can get it when Spezia is at home really regardless of who they’re playing at this part in this season I’m going to take. It’s -120 this week, it is now at 90% on the season at home. Only 50% on the road for Lecce, but on the season total it’s actually at 70% home and away for them. The thing that does kind of pull me off the full game over here is just because I feel like Lecce draws a lot of games 1:1.
I feel like half of their games end 1:1 for whatever reason and there’s not a whole lot of numbers to back that up. The over 2.5 does grade out at exactly 50%. So I am just going to play both teams to score here, but I fancy Spezia in this game and I did almost take that team total over 1.5 because they really have been good enough to score more than two goals in their last few fixtures. So I am just going to take both teams to score here, but that team total of over 1.5 is very, very tempting at +165.
Flash:
Again, Lecce obviously scoring twice after being 1:0 down against a really, really good side on paper in Lazio, but Spezia they’re going to be left kicking themselves. They’ve got back to back home games, and they should have be going into this one with already having three points on the board. Mina, would you say Spezia are decent at +165?
Mina:
I actually came into this wanting to bet on Lecce because Lecce have quietly been building themselves up some really impressive results frankly speaking. They had managed that draw against Udinese and that broke my heart because I bet on that. Then they won against that Atalanta, they won against Sampdoria and they won against Lazio. And those are three teams that Sampdoria know how to hold possession, obviously experienced perhaps the least impressive out of that run, but that’s three wins in a row and two of those teams are really big. So to manage that frankly speaking I think is brilliant. They are better at home than they are away from home. They can definitely score goals. I think they’re so perfectly assembled and I think one of the reasons I know this is so awful but this has been a talk that we’ve had a lot in Italy is because Lazio fans were completely racist to their players, especially Umtiti in that game and I feel like karma made sure that they lost that match.
So that’s why Lecce has gotten another win, karma should help them going forward. And Spezia at home we know are just quite an interesting team to play and because they’re both very open I expect so many goals in this and I think this is going to be a 3:2, 4:3 kind of match. I think both sides are quite equipped going forward, and I think Lecce is better defensively. So I was going to bet more on them, but I do think Spezia at home are just a whole nother team and a whole nother kettle of fish. So don’t know which way this is going to go. Better just go to 2.5 goals on both teams to score.
Flash:
That’s at +150, I mean over 2.5 goals don’t complicate it at +125 and you don’t see… Really, I’ve gone that way but when you think about it you don’t Spezia or Lecce, I think it’s going to be three goals. I don’t see Spezia or Lecce keeping a clean sheet or scoring three, so really I’m losing out on 25 cents there but I’ve got to obviously go with my selection that now looks a little bit lazy. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both coming off of scoring two goals, Lecce really having a boost in their confidence tank and Spezia-
Mina:
I think Lecce are good defensively. I think that if anyone’s going to score twice it’ll be more them than Spezia.
Flash:
+195 though for them to score twice, but you’ve gone with both teams score and over 2.5 at +150 because then you’ve got both teams to score twice or…
Mina:
Exactly.
Flash:
I mean yeah you’ve got it well covered at +150. [inaudible 00:28:25] is at +125 and both teams score -120 and you’ve got to be thinking that Mattie’s going to be cashing his 120 and it’s just going to be whether we get that third goal because if it’s 1:1 then we’re both looking for the same thing but you’ll get paid better than I. Mina, let’s move on to game number five. Well, what a big three points for Sampdoria when they needed it, but now they host the best side or one of the best sides in Europe in Napoli. Sampdoria at +750. Napoli at -255. I looked straight down and this is why I wasn’t lazy here. Sampdoria not to score is at -105. Napoli to score twice is at -190. Napoli do they win by two clear goals at +115? Mina, I’ve just got Napoli winning this game and I’ve not got Sampdoria scoring.
Mina:
Yeah to be honest with you, I would probably go that way too between these two sides. I mean, Sampdoria we know is a really terrible team. They scored their two goals again Sassuolo and in quick succession. I don’t know what happened to Sassuolo, they totally shut down to be honest with you. And so it was a little bit easier for Sampdoria to nick those two goals. Napoli have realized their mistakes against Inter they spoke really well about that, and I do think defensively and just in general what their midfield can offer is a lot more than obviously most teams. They weren’t as physical as usual and they don’t like playing physical teams, and it’s interesting that the most physical side in Serie A was the one that defeated them in the end. Sampdoria we know is not that, they want to hold possession, they want to play their games so I think this is going to be a big loss for them.
Napoli need to exercise what they know best. They need to really win this match and go back to being a team that we all think can win Serie A. Otherwise if they don’t do as well, we’re going to start having doubts and that negativity will spread. So for me this should be, well it should be over 1.5 goals for Napoli frankly speaking, but that’s at -190. Not much. I found it difficult to be honest with you. Unless it’s -1.5 at +115 it looks quite good to be honest with you. I just didn’t know how many goals Napoli would really get. They should manage at least two or three because I can’t imagine Sampdoria will be able to pin down Kvara in the same way that Inter can, but maybe Napoli to win and over 1.5 goals or over 2.5.
Flash:
Yeah, or Osimhen to score anytime?
Mina:
That’s exactly where I’m going because-
Flash:
Yeah I knew you would, 120 looks so dangerous. I mean listen, Napoli looked so good, I thought that Napoli were as good as Inter were midweek. I thought Napoli bossed the game. They just didn’t carve out them openings.
Mina:
Old Napoli though. It’s old Napoli, not new Napoli.
Flash:
Yeah, I also wouldn’t be worried about Napoli going there and winning by 1:0. I mean, Napoli we know can score two, three, four in the blink of an eye and if Napoli score three or four or even two then you’ve got to be thinking that Osimhen and scores. He’s at +120. Mattie, Sampdoria don’t score for me so it starts with Sampdoria 0 and then possibly Napoli two. Do you fancy see the -1.5 at +115 is value?
Mattie:
Yeah, I definitely think there’s value on it. I mean, if you catch Napoli in a good day they’re going to score three, four, five goals, right? I mean, if they score three goals in this game presumably that -1.5 hits no problem. What I really like about this game is these numbers are very, very comparable to the Cremonese versus Juventus matchup that we just saw yesterday. Sampdoria only scoring 0.25 goals at home this season, which is actually worse than Cremonese at 0.29. And almost the same conceding numbers for Napoli as Juventus in that matchup, which is 0.88 goals conceded per game on the road. So I do agree with you, I would go for Sampdoria team total or under 0.5 goal in this game.
I think at -105 you’re getting pretty good value on it and I think the total and the spread are really dependent on which Napoli shows up and I think the most likely scenario is Napoli have a good bounce back game here, score three or four goals and it goes over no problem. However, if that’s not the case then you’re reliant on that over 2.5 being on Sampdoria to score and so that’s why I would stay away from that. To me this is either Napoli -1.5 or Sampdoria not to score in this game. I think both of those probably win.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean I wrote down Napoli win 2:0, 3:0 so then I just stripped my numbers around that. I’ll tell you another thing I like-
Mina:
Three clean sheets for Napoli against Sampdoria in a row, and also in the last six matches, Sampdoria have never won or even drawn, it’s been all Napoli.
Flash:
I see Napoli just completely strangle holding them in midfield, and then they’ve got the pace on both flanks and they’ve got the pace down the middle. They’ve got the rock in Anguissa. I just love the way that Napoli are set up against this Sampdoria side. Also, I might do a double parlay of Napoli -1, which means I’ve got a free hit on obviously the two goal marginal to push with Juve moneyline -130. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because Napoli saw their eight point gap at the top close to five because obviously with Milan and Inter both winning so now they’ve got to make sure to get back to winning ways. And the fixture list hasn’t been kind to them, back to back road trips. Okay Osimhen, anytime scorer at +120 we like that. Sampdoria team total under 0.5 at -105 I like that. And Mattie agrees with us that you got to be with Napoli in some way, shape or form.
Jonathan Nelson’s gone Napoli and under 3.5 at +110. Risky Jonathan Nelson because they could go and score four. You know what they’re like, they’re greedy little men who when they get a sniff of goal or weakness they do not take their foot off the gas. But talking of gas, we just have to wonder about how much the Inter game is taken out of them if a lot. So let’s move on to game number six. Ready to put the boot in here, Milan -120 don’t complicate it. Roma at +345 you can do one. Draw at +260. Milan to score twice as at +100, which tells me straight away and I’ll just have a little look here. Mattie you go first because I’ve got it starting off Roma don’t score at +140. Milan, is it 1:0 or is it just Milan win the game at -120 and I hope they score five?
Mattie:
Yeah, I think this is a really, really interesting matchup and a game that I’m going to watch for sure. And typically these two teams, there’s a lot of goals, it’s a very tight game and final score is usually the 2:1, 3:1, 2:2 along those lines, right? But this Roma team, I mean they just beat Bologna 1:0 yesterday and they had a penalty five minutes into the game. And what I really, really don’t like about that team is that whenever they get the lead they just sit back, and that’s pretty much what they did against Bologna yesterday, especially after the first half. So they just attack, score, sit back and I think Milan is a team that can give them all sorts of problems if they go with that strategy. If Milan score their first goal in this game, I think this is over. I mean, maybe Roma could catch a draw here but I really don’t think there’s much hope for Roma to score two in a row against Milan. I think this is just a really bad matchup for Roma.
Flash:
Yeah, Roma not mobile enough to live with Milan. I mean, Milan have got some sort of movement and pace.
Mattie:
Yeah, I just don’t have a whole lot of faith in Roma right now. I don’t feel like they’re one of the best teams in this league right now. Their goal differential is +5 which is good, but it could be much better. I mean you’re looking at a team like Milan here who has a goal differential of +15, even Juventus as a goal differential +18 and I mean there’s so many teams underneath Roma with a better goal differential than them. Atalanta, Udinese even. I mean other than that they’re not sitting above anybody notable whatsoever so I don’t have a lot of faith in them. I think this could be a really, really good time for Milan to play Roma and get a key win in this one.
Flash:
I also had a little question mark about bookings. First of all Mina, Milan Roma I know neither of us are great lovers of Roma but Milan and this matchup I see at -120 a little bit like we saw Juve earlier at -130 as don’t complicate it, just go and bet the home side.
Mina:
Yeah, I thought you were going to mention red cards because there was two in the last game they played and bookings in the one before. This is usually a high scoring game actually, usually because Milan knows had score goals against Roma. Roma have been really bad in the big matchups to be honest with you, but they are capable of a goal. I think to myself of Dybala, I think of Theo Hernandez on that side and I think that something could be done. Then I think of Raphael Leao and what he could do and again I think that’s going to be really interesting. Roma really at the moment lacking that perfect goal scorer. Tammy Abraham who I thought was going to be top scorer this season has just been really frightening in how poor he has been. But he did do well and at least managed a last minute clearance line save to secure the points for Roma in their last match.
I think this is a 3:1 for Milan to be honest with you. I do see Roma scoring a goal, but I feel like Milan are just so much better in overall quality, energy, ability, attacking force, but they don’t know how to keep clean sheets and that’s the thing that worries me the most which is why I think Roma can snatch a goal. It’s just exactly what Mattie said, once they get one they just don’t bother anymore. So for me, I wouldn’t be looking at Milan and under, I’d be looking at Milan and over in this particular type of game. But I do think that Roma can get a goal. I don’t think this is a clear sheet for Milan.
Flash:
Okay, so does that mean we look at the over 2.5 goals in the game at +110 because I see Milan winning this game and if you think Roma score one then it’s an automatic 2:1, 3:1 for the home side.
Mina:
Yeah, in six of the last seven matches Roma have managed under 2.5, but for Milan in the last six of the seven it’s been over 2.5 so it’s which way is it going to spin? The thing is that I do think Roma’s good defensively, I think Smalling is so impressive. I do think their backline is incredible because they give up on scoring, they give up on scoring so they just defend for most of the part. It’s about whether or not Giroud and he loves the big stage, he loves the-
Flash:
And he loves the matchup with Smalling.
Mina:
Precisely. So in that sense I see Milan getting at least two, so over 1.5 for Milan is at +100 and to me that’s kind of delicious.
Flash:
Yeah, Milan to win or Milan just to score twice ’cause they score twice I think they win the game. Really looking forward to this game, I will be watching it and also I just hit a greedy one because I’m going to actually have a parlay of Milan to win the game at -120 and you’ve to win the game at -130. I’m really enamored by that.
Mina:
What about a parlay for Milan and Napoli rather than-
Flash:
Sorry?
Mina:
What about Parley with Milan and Napoli?
Flash:
But I like Juve ’cause at -130 that’s such a delicious price.
Mattie:
I’m so confused, now Mina doesn’t like Juve and now Flash does so I’m…
Flash:
Yeah because she doesn’t want me earning loads.
Mina:
[inaudible 00:39:53] make me scared.
Flash:
If Juve don’t win I can blame Mina. I’ve never done that in over a decade. Okay, let’s have a look at official picks. Really, really like this. And remember if Napoli do slip up and that means that even if they draw, they drop two more points then the gap will go from five down to two and then it’s just game to game. And if Inter win, remember Inter were +700 to win Serie A but I don’t know even know why I’m mentioning that. Okay Milan and over 1.5 at massive +130. Milan moneyline -120. Mattie, you like Milan scored twice at +100?
Mattie:
I don’t love it. I do like it, I don’t love it. I just really don’t know what to expect from Roma in this game. I just really don’t.
Flash:
Milan are not a side to just win 1:0 though, are they?
Mattie:
I would rather take Milan to win the game than take a team total here. I do like the team total, but I would much rather just play the moneyline.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on to game number seven of eight, and remember just a little pre-warning. I know some of you have typed in a few questions, just save them to the end but I’m sure that with eight games covered you won’t have much to ask us. It’s Verona vs Cremonese, Verona at +105 Cremonese at +290. Throw the balls in the air because that +290, that could well be a winning bet. The draw is at +230. Cremonese to score is at -230 and Verona to score two is at -105. Mattie, I cannot split these and yet I’ve got an away side at +290.
Mattie:
Yeah and obviously Verona’s sitting in dead last place right now. It’s very surprising to see Cremonese at +290. I thought Cremonese played very well yesterday. They scored-
Flash:
Against a poor Juve side though.
Mattie:
Yeah, but I think they could’ve scored three goals in that game. I really do. In fact, I do think both teams probably could’ve scored three goals in that game yesterday, but this is one of those games that most people just look at and they pass over kind of like that Salernitana Torino game. And I think that game and this game are probably two of the most solid bets on the entire board. I mean yeah, let’s break this down a little bit here. So Verona and Cremonese home and away zero clean sheets. In fact, Verona hasn’t even kept a single clean sheet all season. I really liked what I saw from Cremonese yesterday, I think they very well could score more than one goal in this game. Two or maybe three goals.
Now, on the flip side of that, Verona is at home in this game and it is very, very, very rare that they do get shut out at home. The last two seasons probably my biggest, my most common play is Verona both teams to score and over 2.5 when they’re at home. Has not let me down very many times and it’s exactly what I’m taking in this game. I think Cremonese at +290 is very, very good value. I think the double chance at -125 is very good. I think this game has a lot of goals and it would not shock me if Cremonese come out on top.
Flash:
Or the old favorite 2:2 possible?
Mattie:
Yeah, definitely. They’re definitely in the course.
Flash:
It’s -110 for the over 2.5. Mina, can you trust either of these two sides?
Mina:
I like Djuric a lot for Verona, I was so good against Torino. In fact, I think they were in general a lot better than I expected them to be and they’ve been hideous to be honest with you. Cremonese is fascinating when it comes to especially defensively, they don’t actually concede that that much. They’re very strong at the back. It was very unfortunate the way that game was played and conceded in the 91st minute for them. They’ve managed some really tough performances, it’s their attack that I worry about. They just don’t score goals. They create but they don’t score. I think they’ve managed 11 all season, so it’s pretty hideous reading to be honest with you. So I think Verona can score, but they also concede tons because they’re just the worst defense. So it should be Cremonese’s first win of the season, but there’s something about Verona’s ability to go forward that just Cremonese don’t have. So I think it’s a 1:1.
Flash:
Draw at +230 and when you look down, this is like between them the last 10 games. So five games each, no wins, just four draws. Cremonese have got three out of their last five games have been draws and obviously Verona draw in their last game. I’m just wondering if the whole mentality of Verona is, forget what’s gone on, draw a line in the sand, we start now and a good performance away at Torino. But it’s one of them games that maybe it’s just two wrongs actually do make a right and it’s -110 for the over 2.5 goals. But with so many games covered and so many bets and so many selections and so many opinions, maybe this is a game for me to leave alone, but Mattie said it’s one of the best bets on the card and we are covering eight games.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both teams to score and over 2.5 at +120. Yeah, I don’t know about this +290 for that away win, but myself and Mina we’re leaning, we’re not actually going to be pressing any buttons. Let’s go on to game number eight. I actually wrote three different things down here and I bottled it. I don’t mind telling you Bologna at +245. That was the first one I wrote. Bologna win, Bologna plus half at -135, so Bologna double chance not to get beat. It was the second one I wrote. And Atalanta at +115 was the third because Atalanta are off to visit a Bologna side where you know what you’re getting but it’s not negative in what you’re getting. It’s because they fight and they fight and they just cause upsets. The draw is a runner at +240.
I’m not having Atalanta, Mina any reason why I should? And Duvan Zapata may well be out. I just think they’re more than work men like and I didn’t like their heart or their attitude in the first game back at the new year.
Mina:
Atalanta?
Flash:
Yes. But they can get beat up by Bologna. I think Bologna could beat them up.
Mina:
To be honest with you, it’d be very hard to disagree with it. I mean, especially as a team that will be without Zapata, right? And how much of everything that they do going forward relies on him. Arnautovic for Bologna is obviously a different player. At home Bologna this season have only lost one match so that’s all you need to know. It’s either been a win or a draw. It’s away from home that they’ve really suffered and they’ve actually only managed one win away from home. But this time they are playing at home. We know that at Atalanta are really good away from home. Atalanta just don’t like to lose, and at this particular matchup they’ve usually had Bologna’s number in this. So Bologna’s only actually won one in the last six matches played against Atalanta.
So this is the interesting one because of their style of play I think that they have a tactician that can change a lot, but Bologna has really been growing. I thought they were a little bit unlucky in their last matchup obviously. I think this is a draw. I don’t know if I can see either side really winning this because I think both have enough in different areas of the pitch to get a goal. But I just don’t necessarily see Atalanta winning this, especially without Zapata. Bologna have Arnautovic, but do they have enough elsewhere in the midfield? Do you think that midfield is capable of really winning it?
Flash:
No, and that’s why I kept changing my mind. I think the reason that I’d like to leave it is because I can see Bologna winning at +245. I can see the draw at +240 and I can see Atalanta because they’re so lucky and they didn’t deserve to be 2:2 away at Spezia. They got absolutely battered for like 85 minutes. And some of their players, as a scout I’m looking thinking how are you ever going to tell your grandkids you played in Serie A, one of the best leagues ever in the history of football?
Mina:
They have [inaudible 00:47:52] budget, it’s one of the smaller ones from the top. And you thought that once they got bought over they’d have a lot more money, they just don’t and they’re still relying a lot on the academy and trying to create stars out of them. And that’s the problem. Once upon a time they had some really great players but at the moment they’re really just relying on a very thin academy. So you’re not seeing very impressive performances.
Flash:
I can’t go anywhere near Atalanta. Mattie, what you got for me on this game?
Mattie:
So we’ve actually seen this line move a little bit already. I think Bologna opened +280 and Atalanta opened at -105 so it’s moving a little bit, but bologna is a very good team at home. There’s no denying that, but what we failed to mention is how good Atalanta is on the road too, right? Bologna only one loss at home this season. Well, Atalanta only one loss at on the road this season and they also have two draws, but that leaves them with five wins. So I feel like I’ve had a very good read on both of these teams for the majority of the season, and I thought Bologna had a really good chance against Roma yesterday and I do not think they have as much of a chance against Atalanta here. I think coming off a loss, even without Zapata, I think Atalanta really found their stride after the 60th minute mark yesterday and they looked much, much, much better the last 30 minutes of the game than they did the first 60.
So hopefully they shook some of that rust off. But I’m going to take Atalanta here at +115 all day of the week. I think they are by far the superior side. I just think they have too many different weapons. Their shot volume is so good and I think it’s going to be too much for Bologna. I will say after watching the Bologna Roma game yesterday, I do think Roma had quite a few chances they didn’t capitalize on. And if Atalanta gets the same number of chances that Roma had yesterday, this game is going to be very, very lopsided. So I’m just going to stick with Atalanta here. I don’t think Bologna score two goals in this game. I see that team total at 1.5, at +190. I don’t think they score two goals in this game, and I think there’s a very good chance Atalanta score twice. If Atalanta score twice in this game, it’s over. I don’t think Bologna really have much of a chance to score twice in this matchup.
Mina:
Yeah.
Flash:
Wow. Okay. Maybe a good game to watch lineup check. Otherwise, maybe the goals are going to come from Muriel from Atalanta, Arnautovic. Maybe the draw is a run at +240. I’ve left it well alone. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because obviously we’re a team. So if we’re a team, we need to make sure that we cheer on our teammates and it’s Atalanta moneyline at +115. It has moved for you if you haven’t got involved because they were at -105, but that means there’s money coming on the home side with +280 being too big and that narrow at +245. Now’s the time for your questions. And while you’re doing that, I’ll remind you, this is your home of soccer betting so if you haven’t subscribed then please do so. And if you ring the bell, then we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And we’ve got so much content coming right across the boards all season with some additions for next year as well.
And if you’re on social media, @BetUSTV is the place to go for any updated news, any last minute picks, especially if we’ve seen the line-ups. And it might be a parlay in there. I’ve not done it yet, but I am definitely looking at Milan win, Juve win plus -120, -130 stick them together and I think it’s going to pay handsomely. Before I have a little look at any questions, ’cause I know that Mohamed had one about Sassuolo vs Fiorentina. Let’s have a quick look at the records because I did damage this week. I went 0 and four, which I don’t want to be seeing again and now puts me at -381. The total is 0.9. That’s basically because Mattie carried me. Mina, look at that. 60 picks, 0.00. That is the work of an accountant. That is absolutely brilliant.
And the parlay is letting us down as well at 1.13. Okay, let’s kick that off. Let’s have a little look. So a quick one then, Sassuolo vs Fiorentina. I couldn’t pick the winner, maybe I see some goals, just these two sides they want to kid you into how they were over the last couple of seasons. Mina?
Mina:
It’s an interesting one. There’s been over 2.5 goals in five of their last six matches for Fiorentina. I think Fiorentina are the better team in this match just because of the fact that I do think they have more going on in the midfield. Obviously Amrabat didn’t play. This is the kind of player that you need to start off the bench straight away. Sorry, start and you didn’t have that. I just don’t know which way to go because Sassuolo can shock you. If they feel like you’ve been lolled into a sense of security, then that’s when they start to produce. But I honestly don’t think they have enough quality. Fiorentina at home are such an interesting team to watch, but in this matchup in the last six matches between those two sides, interestingly enough, Fiorentina have only won once. Sassuolo won three times and there’ve been two draws. So it’s difficult for me, but I do think Fiorentina is the better team. So I would probably go with either a draw or Fiorentina. Maybe draw no bet, but you won’t get a lot of value on that.
Flash:
Okay. Harper, Mattie is saying can Lazio finish in top four? I’ve got it Inter, Napoli, Milan and Juve got its own ups. Not in that order though, Mina?
Mina:
No, not in that order.
Flash:
No.
Mattie:
I think they could. Well, I don’t know. I’m not very big on Lazio. I said it on Monday, I think they’re going to regress at some point. I think we could see them fall down to that seven or eight spot pretty soon, but they definitely have a chance to finish in the top four. They really need to get these wins here in games they’re supposed to win. Like this round playing Empoli they really need to win this game and there’s no reason for them not to. So we’ll see. It’s not really a team I trust.
Flash:
No, nor me. Obviously a naughty step. Chris says, are there any key Serie A players moving into the Premier League in January transfer window? No, but there might be a few key players going into the Championship or League One. [inaudible 00:53:59]
Mattie:
Oh, wow.
Flash:
Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Mina:
[inaudible 00:54:03] advertising the league.
Flash:
Exactly. Serie A, apart from the flip side.
Mina:
Can I just do a note that the best players in the Premier League have usually always come from Serie A.
Flash:
Yeah, usually. See? That’s what I’m saying. Yeah, so you’re backing me up. No. The answer is no. The answer is no. It’s a simple question, is there any key Serie A players going to move? Not have moved, going to move. And the answer is no because teams are still in the Champions League, Europa League, Conference League and they’re going to need their good players and the rest of them haven’t got players that are worthy. Maybe Amrabat because he had a good few games.
Mina:
Maybe Milinkovic-Savic as well.
Flash:
Where’d you think he’ll go? What type of team?
Mina:
[inaudible 00:54:40] heavily interested, so that’s going to be interesting to see whether or not they can get that. It’ll be interesting to see if Lazio let him go. So it depends on how big the deal is. Rabiot, if there’s enough money on the table and he can get his wages then he’ll do a move, but honestly he’s better off waiting until the end of the summer so that he can negotiate a bigger deal for himself. So probably not. But I don’t know whether Milinkovic-Savic will move on or not because he really needs to at this point. Lazio is never going to win the trophies he needs.
Mattie:
Okay, let’s have a look at the official picks. Mina, Juve and under 4.5 at +100. Spezia and Lecce both need to score and over 2.5 at +150. Sampdoria Napoli is Osimhen anytime scorer at +120. Milan and over 1.5 at +130. Mattie’s gone Salernitana Torino over 2.5 goals at + 115. Why complicate it? Spezia-Lecce, both teams score at -120.Verona Cremonese, both teams score and over 2.5 at +120 and Atalanta moneyline at +115. I can see three out of them four coming up. I’m not sure about the bottom one, but who am I to question the number one kappa from last year? Inter -1 at -110, I see as a free hit. Atalanta moneyline at -120 is probably my banker. Sampdoria team total under 0.5 at -105, so Sampdoria not to score against Napoli and Spezia Lecce over 2.5 goals + 125 and I really like that parlay, but I’m not doing it yet. Just for my graphics people I’m putting it on the record I will post it on @BetUSTV if I decide to do the parlay, which will be Juve and Milan.
Moneyline from everyone in the chat, remember we’ve got LaLiga coming up tomorrow. I’ll do my little one man show for the FA Cup. I’ve got three selections, no banker, three selections tomorrow on the FA Cup. So the rest of the Premier League will take a week’s break but then we’ll be back at it very, very soon. So Mina, remember in @BETUSTV if you decide that you’ve got some added picks. Mattie, good luck mate. I like the fact that you said two of your best bets are the best bets on the whole card as well.
I didn’t mean it like that, no.
Flash:
Yeah, you did. It was almost like forget what they’re saying. I’m telling you that the two best bets are two of mine.
Mattie:
I guess we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.
Flash:
We will see. If it weren’t for you, we would be a lot further down because I’m letting you down. So anyway, Mina, have a great weekend. Mattie, great job as always. So from the dream team, obviously these two not me, from BetUS, may all your bets be winners. Enjoy it and we will see you again very, very soon. You take care.
BetUS Sportsbook & Casino
Average rating: 0 reviews
