Flash:
Welcome to BetUS, I’m Flash. It’s Serie A, it’s Matchday 22 and now let’s get the housekeeping out the way straight away. We’re America’s favorite sports book so why not subscribe if this is your first time, and also put your thumbs up. Subscription means that we will be able to get closer to 4,000 subscribers just for the BetUS Soccer Channel. Also, ring the bell because ring the bell means that we can notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And that means that we have Champions League, Europa League coming up, and also on the BetUS TV Channel we have the Australian Open which is the first Grand Slam event of the year. If tennis is your thing, then you need to be joining us tomorrow and obviously Bundesliga tomorrow as well. I have the queen and the prince both coming back with strong weeks, only your presenter is letting yourself and us down at the moment. So I’ll go to the queen first, which is Mina Rzouki. Mina, we’re enjoying Serie A, but it does come with its pitfalls.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, because we’ve been seeing some really unpredictable results that you would just never imagine. Like Cagliari went from being the worst team in Serie A to winning two on the bounce and that’s very, very surprising. There’s been red cards that have tarnished the game, like for example, the one between Empoli and Sassuolo which was very annoying to watch. And then you saw Torino all of a sudden score a bunch of goals, and Fiorentina not even being able to manage anything. So it is what makes the league so exciting, it’s a little bit annoying if you are somebody that wants to take a bet and you think it’s a sure thing and then Cagliari come back and scare you.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, we’ve also got the prince of numbers, stats, goals, and we’ve even added corners to that now Matty. I think the running starts here, so them teams that have had a really rough or tough first half of the league now is where they’ve got us try and make sure that they finish strong, which then can be either good value or it can be a trap door for us that are trying to bet against them.
Matty:
Exactly. And especially this week and next week coming off these cup games and short rests, it’s going to be really interesting to see some of these lineups and see how some of these teams come out of the gate here.
Flash:
Okay. Well, let’s have a little look at the, I don’t even want to look at this record because I’m letting you down so badly, but we’ve got to do it because Matty, you are flying at 13.85. Mina, you got your head above water, I remember you was eight units down so that gives your presenter some hope total at 7.47. So if you had a $100 on each one of our bets because we don’t duplicate you’d be up $747 so definitely worth following. And I’ve got to hit the ground running, now let’s go and have a little look at the first game because we’ve got seven games for you. Get yourselves in the chat and give us your leans, your bankers, and if you’ve got any both teams to score we just want your all round advice. The first game is Sampdoria vs Torino. Sampdoria massive +190, Torino +160, I think that’s on the back of scoring four at home, not away. The draw is +215 which means it’s very close to 200. Mina, how do you separate these two because the draw definitely looks on the cards?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah the draw looks on the cards, but this is the problem that we’ve seen with Torino is that they’re just a team that don’t travel well. When they’re at home they’re so delightful to watch, away from home they’re completely different prospect a little bit like Fiorentina can be. Sampdoria for me, I feel like the wheels have entirely come off. I mean, there was some sort of progression, you could see them steadily growing, they won the Derby against Genoa, you started seeing some positive results coming out of them. They are quite reliant on Gabbiadini and Candreva, Candreva they didn’t have in their last match which perhaps shows you the capitulation that they witnessed.
Mina Rzouki:
But between these two sides, I feel like Torino actually have a game plan, they actually have an identity, they’ve got a lot of their players available, actually Sampdoria have got a lot too, but when it comes to squad depth to Torino has a little bit more. This might just be the match in which Torino actually wins away from home and do something special because right now all I can see with Sampdoria is that they can’t defend, they’re entirely reliant on Gabbiadini snatching something, and they’re falling right now because I don’t see a team that’s trying at all on the pitch. So maybe this is the one for me that I would go with Torino moneyline and not complicate it.
Flash:
Yeah. Torino actually grew before your very eyes the other when they hosted Fiorentina and they went 1:0 up and in a blink of an eye it was three. Matty, are the numbers saying that this game is a lot tighter? Because we’ve got +190 for the home side, +160 for the away side, and nearly a +200 which is the magical number for the draw.
Matty:
Yeah. This is a very, very interesting matchup here because Torino has been one of the worst teams on the road this entire season, they have not scored two or more goals on the road at all this entire season and that has really been their downfall. They have been playing excellent defense lately, especially they’ve really been playing an excellent defense pretty much all season, they’re only of conceding one goal on the road. An interesting stat for them right now is that on the road there have only been four games where there was a goal in the first half and none of them went over one. This is a very tough game because to me it looks like a 1:1 game, but Sampdoria might be able to find that second goal. They’re conceding two goals at home only scoring 1.3, Torino on the flip side are only scoring 0.4 goals and conceding one.
Flash:
Matty, what about the numbers of +160 for the home side to score twice at +155, these are either or ors not both, obviously do both bets, but Torino on the back of scoring four +155 for them to score two. I don’t think anyone keeps a clean sheet here, but the +105 of over 2.5 it’s a case of who cares if they get a second.
Matty:
I just don’t think you can take Torino to score twice. I mean, they still haven’t done it at all on the road, I don’t know how I would feel about taking that. Sampdoria to score twice is very interesting, they’ve actually only done that twice in their last seven games at home. They’ve been really up and down lately, it’s just a tough team to really get a read on, you don’t really know who you’re going to come out and get. They’ve been playing very, very well in the first half lately especially, but they’ve been dropping a lot of games in the second half.
Flash:
So what do you think? How tight? Mina okay, come in. How tight the game is this? Because as I say the draws at 215, normally we see draws are between 245 and 345, but this here is telling you that they want to duck the draw.
Mina Rzouki:
I mean, the draw is a possibility although usually Juric doesn’t like that the Torino coach either likes to go for the win and just take a risk at the end, or he’ll shut up shop and make sure that he’ll just cling on and that’s rarely something he’ll do. The only thing that worries me about these, I mean, when you look at the stats Sampdoria have won four of their last six. At home, they’ve always been really strong against Torino, but these were different coaches, of course, they Claudio Ranieri we know what he can do, and Torino have had terrible coaches now for a while. Now it’s a completely different team, and yet Torino have lost five of their last six away matches.
Mina Rzouki:
They’ve fail to score in five of their last six away matches, so Torino really, really struggle on the road and yet barring individual quality, which is honestly Candreva and Gabbiadini doing something, as a team Torino just looks so much better, but it’s a team that really doesn’t travel well. So maybe I can see the point of just going for a draw because you think they neutralize each other, individual quality versus the collective, a home side that’s strong versus in away side that just doesn’t travel well. But honestly speaking, there’s still a part of me that believes more in Torino’s chance is than I do right now in Sampdoria.
Flash:
Okay. Well, Grace in the chat says she can see a red card in this game. Matty, are we looking at something alternate rather than moneyline and definitely not the draw?
Matty:
Yes, this is the first time I’ve taken this prop in a while on this show, but I’m actually going corner kicks under. Sampdoria at home under 9.5 corners has hit in six at their last seven home games, and for Torino it’s hit in seven of their last eight away games. Head to head the numbers on this are very good as well. When they just played actually, I guess it was a week or two ago, it even hit under 9.5 there as well so I really like this play. It’s very good value, and I’ll be curious to see where this total ends up before kickoff.
Flash:
Are you expecting it to come down maybe even to 8.5?
Matty:
The average for these two teams combined is eight exactly, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down. I feel like the price would probably drop first so we’ll see. Right now we got it at I believe it was -125 last night so we’ll see where it’s at at kickoff.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official soccer pick because myself Mina we ducked out this game because there’s too many possible eventualities, but under 9.5 Corners at -125. If that rises, make sure you go to betus.com and have a little look at the props, and if that rises to 10.5 then you’re going to get that extra little bit of cushion. And maybe you might have to pay -135, but it may well be worth it. So it’s under 9.5 corners for Matty at -125. Let’s move on to the next game because this should be a shoe in, but can you trust the visitors to go and put their best foot forward? It’s Salernitana vs Lazio. Salernitana at +625, it should be +1000 when are they going to beat Lazio? Lazio at -220 it looks like it’s a parlay piece, but do you trust Lazio to win by two clear goals? -1 is still juicy, -135 the draw is anything you like at +350. Mina, Lazio they’re one of them team we like to be with on certain days, but away from home we always have to look twice.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, this is a problem with them, it’s also the back door. I mean, they just are so poor defensively, they’ve considered what? Like 39 goals so far this season, which is we’re talking about averaging nearly two a game it’s rather hideous to be honest with you, frankly it’s the highest in any team in the top half of the team. But they are a team that obviously, I don’t know if you watched their game, but Immobile against Inter he will always find a way of taking his opportunities. And that’s what makes Lazio so good, is that they do have a frontline that score goals. But I think the biggest shock here, and we have to talk about the fact that Salernitana beat Hellas Verona.
Mina Rzouki:
I mean, Salernitana got saved on literally like the final minute of 2021, they were about to go bankrupt and have to stop from scratch, but they found a guy willing to buy them. And they’ve just hired Walter Sabatini as their director of sport. We’re talking about a connoisseur of the game who has scouted some of the best talent in the world. So Salernitana’s star is set to rise, obviously, not yet, but they are a team that played a very good game. So it’s an interesting one right now because Lazio gets shocked a lot by the smaller teams, I thought they put in a really good performance, but away from home we know they can score goals, the only problem of course for them, it comes to conceding.
Flash:
Yeah it does, but Matty do we see Salernitana scoring? Because this looks like to me that like we said before you’ve had a bad, bad start of the season then you get saved. It’s almost like Salernitana have got a free hit every week, they’re going to go down, they’re expect it to go down so why don’t they go down with a bit of fire in their belly? But along the way they’re going to cause some upsets, we don’t see it this weekend though, do we?
Matty:
I mean, we’re taking the worst often in Serie A against the worst road defense in Serie A. I don’t know if Lazio has kept a clean sheet in the last two years it feels like. They’ll probably score three goals in this game, but yeah I think it’s pretty likely that they do concede in this game. They’re averaging over two goals against, and Salernitana is expecting over 1.25 goals a game, which is actually not bad compared to the other teams in Serie A. So I think there’s a chance that they score, I was very, very surprised to see them score twice against Verona last week. Again, that’s another team I’m just trying to steer completely clear of until they get their head screwed on straight.
Flash:
But over 2.5 goals at -135, it looks like that’s a bit too juice because really what they’re saying is that if it’s over 2.5 then we’re going to see Lazio win and cover the -1.5.
Matty:
Yeah. So the over 2.5 to this game is actually graded a little bit higher than both teams score, for Lazio is hitting at 82%, both teams of score is actually only hitting at 73% overall, and on average for both of these teams combined the over 2.5 is at 65%. So that’s a pretty good number, but kind of surprising here at both teams of score and over 2.5 is only at a 40% grade. So if I were to swing there, I’d rather just take the goals instead of both teams to score as well.
Flash:
Yeah, that’s at -135 or so let’s have a little look at the official picks, and you might see a little letter pop up because it’s lazio moneyline and it’s the first leg of my four team parlay. So Lazio moneyline, I’m not taking any chances. Listen, they might keep a clean sheet and win 1:0, I’m just happy to get a Lazio win and jog on. Okay, moving on to the next game because this team a little few injuries have popped up now, they’re going to be asked questions from personnel, it’s Juve vs Udinese. Juve at -270, Udinese at +825 have been known to cause a shock against the bigger guns. Draw is at +375, the under or over is at 2.5 do we see three goals here Mina? At -115 Juve what are they going to do? And obviously bad news with Chiesa being out for the rest of the season.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah chiesa is out for the rest of the season, it’s detrimental honestly to the way that they attack. Having said all of that, I mean, he went off the pitch against Roma and they still managed to score four goals, and they did most of that work in a seven minute period. I don’t know whether that’s more about a Roman collapse or a Juventus brilliance really frankly speaking. We know that Juve have struggled all season to score more than a goal, incidentally against Udinese they did in the reverse fixture, but Udinese came back because there are never say die team, especially under Cioffi. Now, I do like this team a lot and I didn’t know which way to go with this, but the only thing that makes me think that, I mean, obviously the moneyline it’s -270, there’s no value there.
Mina Rzouki:
But the only thing here is that Udinese just don’t really have anyone on the bench. I mean, this team is practically now being made out bare bones, whoever they can find, the kit man’s probably on the bench. This whole team is suffering with COVID right now, they’re trying to sue Liga Serie A because of the fact that they were forced to play despite the fact that they had barely anyone available for them. So there’s huge question marks and because of them, a new protocol all has come out that said if 35% of your team has been infected by COVID then you are allowed to now postpone the game because of how horrible this whole thing has been for them. And I don’t think how many of them have recovered.
Mina Rzouki:
Juve have obviously played midweek in the Supercoppa Italiana which obviously went into extra time, so they are a little bit exhausted. I think they have enough in their arsenal to get a goal, it’s just can they keep a clean sheet? I don’t know.
Flash:
-120 for Udinese not to score Matty, what are your numbers saying? Because I expect Juve to keep this game tight, but is it one of those that they’ll go and get the winner if Udinese score and it’s a 2:1 home win?
Matty:
Yeah. I mean, the number is here they point to the clear or under 2.5, it’s hitting at over 60%. I actually don’t really love that, I don’t think that I would want to play that just because of Juve just had an extremely long and tough game, now they play Udinese, and then they play again in three days. Udinese’s on a basically a week rest, and then they also play three days later as well against Sampdoria, but I mean, both teams to score it’s hit in four straight head to head matches. Udinese scoring over 1.5 goals in two of those, they have been playing pretty well lately. And one stat that really has popped out me is they’ve actually scored in four of the last five first halfs, they got the doors blown off them against Atalanta.
Matty:
It was like three or four nothing in half time, but other than that they’ve been scoring in first halfs against AC Milan, Empoli, Cagliari, Lazio, there have been a lot of first half goals. And my go-to play for Juve, the last three games they played I’ve actually taken this the first half over one. They’ve had a first half goal in 14 of their last 15 matches, I think that is a very, very impressive number and the books are really not accounting for them scoring in the first half right now. And so there’s very, very good value on it, so I do like the first half total in this a lot more than the full game over.
Flash:
Mina, I’ve got this down to 2:1, 2:0 home win, I think Juventus are not going to go bombing on looking for a third if they get their noses in front.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I agree with you. I also think that this is a game in which both teams will score. In the last six matches between these two sides there’s only ever been one clean sheet and that was in the Coppa Italia, it wasn’t even in the Serie A. So this is a game in which Juve seem to always concede, they don’t like playing sometimes against physically athletic and robust team teams and that is exactly what Udinese are. I think their first team is very good and if anything, I think Udinese can do something in the first half because I do think that as time wears on they’ll be a little bit exhausted and they won’t have much opportunity to change the players that they have on the bench because of the crisis. But they will be hoping to recover someone from COVID for them to create something, but I agree with you I think it’s going to be maybe a 2:1 to Juve.
Flash:
Yeah, I see Juve stacking their first 11 with energy. I see Kulusevski coming back in, McKennie, I just see there being complete athletes to try and run down this Udinese. Listen, you don’t let six in at home and then get away the week after, Juventus have got a hell of a chance here to stamp their authority early in the game and you need energy, you need urgency. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because again, for me it’s you Juventus moneyline, second leg of my parlay. First off over one at -120 for Matty, he expects at least one goal. And if Juve are on a going date it could be over by half time, 2:0 job done, but a lot of people might think it’s a draw 1:1 at half time, but at -120, that’s where Matty’s gone.
Flash:
Now let’s move on because the next game is the biggest game in Serie A this week. It’s the team that we were talking about just a minute ago at Atalanta scored six last week, host champions elect Inter. Atlanta at a massive +185, score goals wherever they go. Inter +130, ooze class, are a team, are a squad, and they have the best player in Serie A at the moment and that is Brozovic. Under or over three goals, draw at +285. Matty I want to come to you first, what are your numbers saying here? Because we’ve got an Atalanta side who very rarely keep clean sheets even when they scored six they still let in two, and you’ve got Inter who just control games.
Matty:
Yeah. So this is a very interesting matchup because normally when we’re talking about these teams we have two bad teams with horrible expected goals and we don’t know whether to go under or over. Now we have a different problem, we have the two best expected goals teams in Italy at home and away here, Atalanta expecting over two goals a game and conceding right under one, and on the flip side of that Inter scoring 2.13 on the road and expecting 1.28 goals against. This is a very, very interesting matchup here. Both teams to score is graded at 70%, and obviously the last time they played it was 2:2, I believe it was 1:1 at half time.
Matty:
I think both of these team totals for this game are very interesting, because I think that either team are very likely to score twice in this matchup. It’s really about how quick the first goal comes and whether or not this game opens up or not, but I do like Atalanta’s chances in this matchup. Especially being at home catching in or like we were just talking about Juve, they just came off a very long game, they’re going to play again in three days. Atalanta a few extra days of rest and not as tough of a matchup, I just like the principle of the play, I like Atalanta to, to either win or draw this game.
Flash:
Yeah I just worry about Atalanta being able to defend, and whether bring back Dzeko because I think he’ll be too much of a physical presence for Inter here and spearhead that five man arc of midfield, because honestly this is the type of game Inter love, but there again we could see. And Mina, if you can speak over some of these numbers because as Matty says, you could see a 3:2 Inter here and it’s +120 for Atlanta to score twice, but it’s soccer odds on at -110 for to score twice.
Mina Rzouki:
Here’s the thing, at the start of the season yeah, there was a 2:2 draw between these two sides. Actually, if you’re going to be smart about this I would go for the draw moneyline floor, from their last six matchups between these two sides have ended up in a draw. They tend to cancel each other out, it’s been usually Inter with the strongest defense, Atalanta with the strongest attack. Right now, I think both of them are very good at attacking wise, Inter you saw in the Supercoppa and actually just recently they do have a few frailties at the back. Sometimes they can lose their concentration, but if they do concede I cannot see them conceding more than one to be honest with you. But I do see them scoring at least two because I obviously don’t trust Atalanta’s back line, and they have four attackers to choose from.
Mina Rzouki:
It’s either Correa, Alexis Sanchez is flying right now, Dzeko will be coming on so I do think there’s lots, and obviously Lautaro Martinez, there’s a lot of opportunity there. They were both involved in matches and obviously Inter’s did go to extra time, But in terms of squad depth for me I look at this team and I think, I don’t believe in Atalanta two as much as I believe in Inter because there’s just too many… I mean, Zapata being out for me is huge for them, Toloi is out, Zappacosta is out, Gosens is out and has still been out, but these are the type of players that I feel secure the defense a lot more as well because of what they do up front. Especially Zapata for me and Gosens, but them being out is scary for me. So I see this as moneyline or a draw would be probably the… It may be difficult to spit them.
Matty:
Yeah. And Mina I want to throw out one more number for Inter actually which is very interesting, they have scored in 14 straight first halfs against Italian competition.
Mina Rzouki:
There we go.
Matty:
Including yesterday which I think is very interesting. So that first half team total is something that I was looking at as well for this game, but yeah this is-
Flash:
Yeah, it’s interesting that we’ve got… Jojo in the chat is saying it’s 3:1. 3:2, but I’m not going for moneyline, I’m not going for sides, I’m just going to go for the over 3.5 goals. Well, if you go and have a little look, the line set is set at three, over three goals is at -110 so if you think you’re going to get a minimum of it’s a free hit, you can just go and do as you please. I just see Inter winning the game by hook or by crook, but I left it alone just because it’s one of them games that it could be a three all, it could be a one all, and just anything could happen. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I know we got two, Inter moneyline at +130 when are we going to see Inter? We will not see Inter at +130 again this season I’m sure. I’m sure.
Flash:
It’s crazy, you’ve got to take while it’s out. Now, Atlanta draw or double chance at -150 for Matty. The money seems to be moving in your favor there Matty, because I know that that was a little bit better than the -150 prior to you putting it on.
Matty:
Yeah, I believe it was -140 when I took it yesterday so just a little bit of movement there.
Flash:
Yeah a little 8% movement against you there, but again, the -140 would been nice as well. Okay. So yeah be lucky with that game, enjoy it, it’s going to be an absolute cracker. Let’s move on to the next game because I’m not so sure this is going to be an absolute cracker because it’s Venezia vs Empoli. Venezia at +170 planning against one of the best road sites at +145 in Empoli who got their tails completely clipped last week, but at home a completely different animal on the road. Draw is at +275, the under or over three goals I’m not sure Mina that I see more than three goals in this game, because Venezia are just starting to question themselves and they’ve lost their way.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, they’ve totally lost their way. And actually they had an interview with the coach and they were asking them why there are so many problems and he’s like, listen, you have to understand that if we try to change up something, if we try to take up a risk, it’s a lot harder on a tactical level to try and improve this team because everyone’s from a different country. Everyone speaks a different language, so trying to create that understanding and harmony in the dressing room is much more difficult to achieve at Venezia than it is everywhere else. So what Andreazzoli has done at Empoli is really carried on to your Dionisi’s work, and it’s a real collective at the moment with a lot of talent and technique in midfield. Obviously, you saw them getting crushed, we thought that they would score at least two goals against Sassuolo, but they did get a red card and it became very hard for them.
Mina Rzouki:
They also had quite a few absences for that match, well actually suspensions, so they’re back. Empoli we know travel really well, when you look at Venezia at home they’ve obviously managed some… Well, very small, but some good games, but for me I struggle to see them really scoring more than one goal. They’re really having a lot of problems right now, and they’re not keeping clean sheets because you saw the lack of concentration, especially in the opening minutes of either half against Milan. You are thinking to yourself just concentrate, but it was difficult to get them on board and almost listening so [crosstalk 00:28:00]-
Flash:
That was my bet that Venezia were going to be completely and utterly tuned in, make sure they don’t give away anything. First minute 1:0 bang, game over.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah because things happen. And they’ve dipped into the transfer market so they’re trying to change things up and again, bought players who speak different languages and it’s getting really hard to manage the whole thing put together. So for me I think of Empoli and I think of how much of a team they are and I think for me they’ll score two goals, Venezia will concede two, potentially they could get one themselves, but I don’t see this as being a game with lots of goals in it no.
Flash:
Okay. So Empoli at +105, +110 in places to score twice Matty. If you’re going to go your numbers because we know that Empoli are so, so strong away from home, or maybe they’re not so strong, but they’ve had great results.
Matty:
Yeah, this is actually a very I think a tricky matchup actually. The average combined goals for both of these teams this season is 3.2 home and away, so right away over three hits me right off the bat, right? But if you break it down Venezia not even expecting one goal a game at home and they’re conceding two. Empoli they’re scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5. This is a very tricky game because Empoli have been extremely good on the road, way better than they have been at home. In fact, they haven’t lost on the road in eight matches which is very impressive.
Matty:
And during that span, they have actually scored over 1.5 goals five times, and they’ve conceded over 1.5 in the same exact amount so I think this is very tricky. And I remember the first meeting this season between these two teams when Empoli was at home, I took Empoli to win and over 2.5 and Venezia ended up winning that game somehow some way. So this is a game where the numbers like both teams to score more than anything, that’s graded 70% and as well as the first half over one is graded at 70% as well.
Flash:
So Matty, what are your numbers for Venezia to score twice? Because I’m looking and thinking maybe we might have like a Serie A team parlay, because under 1.5 so Venetia not to score two or more is at -145.
Matty:
So this is where it’s interesting, it is only hit in 20% of their home games, but it has hit in over half of Empoli’s road games.
Flash:
Well, so Empoli conceding twice?
Matty:
Yes. And it has also hit, it hit the last time Venezia hosted Empoli at home last season.
Flash:
Okay. Something to think of.
Mina Rzouki:
[inaudible 00:30:43] at home is something else, but away from whom there are a stronger team. Also have a look at red cards, there have been four for Venezia when they’ve played at home, none away from home. Is now not weird?Flash:
Yes, but it’s the way they play. I mean, Empoli just love to suck you in and then they surprise you with a bit of pace and the confidence that they show without the ball. They run off the ball as if they know and have confidence in their teammates to find a lead, that’s why they’ve caused so many problems to so many teams. I’ve wrote down here Venezia under 1.5 goals at -145, we may well find in the remaining games that we may well find something to go with it. So let’s have a little look at the official picks please because of Venezia vs Empoli we’ve gone with Empoli draw no bet -125. It looks like a good way to go that Matty, you in agreement there?
Matty:
Yeah, I think that’s the safest way to go for this game.
Flash:
Yeah safe way and what have we got there? Empoli moneyline for Astrutchaos AC has gone to straight Empoli team total. They’re looking at employee scoring twice, and if they score twice obviously we don’t think that Venezia score twice so we’re looking at maybe Venezia one Empoli two or maybe just a straight 2:0. So draw no bet at -125 for the queen. Let’s move on to the next game because there’s a team here, Roma vs Cagliari. Roma at – 270, Cagliari at +750, draw at +400. Let’s talk about the away side first because this is the team that I was thinking of most when I said they’ve been shocking for the first half of the season and they’ve got to turn a corner otherwise, their Serie A status is going to be very much under threat. Mina can we trust Roma? We know that Roma don’t keep many clean sheets, but they are flat track bullies, so do they just set their stall out and go and jump all over Cagliari first half then it’s game over? If they do not, and Cagliari hang around they may well get something out of the game.
Mina Rzouki:
This is what I find really interesting, they are flat track bullies, but they are very good when they face teams who want to have the ball, who try to do something or try to play something of a progressive football. Roma are a great team when it comes to the transitions, we know that they counter attack, but honestly speaking Jose Mourinho is having some problems when it comes to his substitutions. And right now he’s got a few absences when it comes to this match, and this has never been a match that’s been a low scoring game. There’s never been a clean sheet in the last six matches between these two sides. They usually both score, it’s usually a high scoring game. And when you look at the way that these coaches look at the teams; Mazzarri at Cagliari, Mourinho at Roma, their defensive game plans usually speaking with a lot of direct play and counter attacking.
Mina Rzouki:
So who is going to take possession of the wall and actually try to create something? You think Roma will because they have Lorenzo Pellegrini, they have the type of players that can add a little creativity in Mkhitaryan, but right now Cagliari are flying from a confidence point of view. They’ve won two on the bounce, which is something that honestly speaking I would’ve never expected, meanwhile Roma there is just so much noise around them at the moment. A lot of criticism being aimed at them, they are ebb in their mentality right now. And so my feeling is that they could open the scoring, Cagliari comes and scores a goal, there could be a mental capitation there. For me, this is a both teams to score.
Mina Rzouki:
I know that sounds like a risk because of the way that Cagliari has played the whole season, but right now they’re scoring goals. And why wouldn’t you believe in them when you think Ibanez is not available for example for Roma, and defensively they’re just not that strong, are they?
Flash:
No, they’re not. And Cagliari just to score one goal in the game is at -135, maybe that’s a second leg of our parlay. But Matty, when all your numbers, all your stats that we love you for and you have to go by this is where the newer numbers will not show you that Cagliari are actually on the up trend and could be a danger in this game.
Matty:
Yes. So there’s definitely some conflicting stats for this game because Cagliari have scored against Roma in five straight meetings, but they have failed to score in 60% of their road games, including two of their last five games overall. Roma is actually not even or they’re conceding right at one goal, right at 1.09 goals at home. But they have kept clean sheets surprisingly in 45% of their home games, which is actually kind of surprising to me, I did not think it was that high. So this is kind of a tricky game where you have the head to head stats where Cagliari seems to always play Roma pretty well, and they’re usually high scoring. With this year’s stats where it’s pointing to both teams to score no, and it’s also pointing to the under three goals.
Matty:
The over 2.5 is only hitting in 45% of Roma’s home games surprisingly, and 60% of Cagliari’s away games. The under 3.5 is hitting in 71% of these games so that is another interesting stat for this game. It seems like the script is flipped for this matchup.
Flash:
Yeah, it looks like a 2:1 home win and in which case you can’t put anyone off of Cagliari actually at +1.5, +1.5 at -125. It’s been a while since… Go on Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
No, just from a defensive point of view if you are looking to see whether or not Cagliari can score, I don’t know because Maitland-Niles had a baptism of fire against Juventus and it was a terrible match for him. I mean, he was considered as the worst player on the pitch according to all the newspapers in Italy, they’re chucking in Oliveira, they’re without Ibanez, they’re without Cristante. Defensive, obviously one’s a defender, one’s a defensive midfielder so I don’t know whether that just opens up the door for Cagliari to score just the one goal and-
Flash:
But they’re not good defensively when they’re at full strength Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Yes. Perfect. Yeah. It’s so true.
Flash:
I mean, you have Smalling at the back there that tells you everything, that’s like having Harry Maguire playing for Man United. So yeah listen, Cagliari at at -105 or sorry -135 just a score, I mean, that makes our parlay if we wanted to put them in just Cagliari to score at +182 with Venezia not to score twice so that’s something to think about there. Let’s have a little look at the official picks here because I think it is the home side on nothing, but there is value on the away side getting a double chance with +1.5. Do we see Roma just look after the free points and creep over the line maybe with a late winner? Roma and both teams to score at +200 looks like the way to go with a minimum of 2:1. You know what Roma are like though, they might get that third and then it does kill the -1.5.
Flash:
For me it’s just a Roma win, I just can’t trust them to go and put their foot down and maybe they go and win five. Matty’s definitely going to be sitting on the fence and he’s leaving it, but remember we have got Cagliari to score at -135 if we want to add it. Let’s move on to our final game, and it’s Bologna vs Napoli. Now normally you’d think Bologna tough matchup for anybody, but at the moment they’re struggling. Bologna at +325, Napoli at -105 I just couldn’t believe this price by the way, draw at +240, total is under or over 2.5. Mina, Napoli in action at the moment with Fiorentina it’s going to go to extra time. We think it’s 2:2, but -105 for the away side is that not just jump all over it? I nearly made this my banker.
Mina Rzouki:
What, you’re that confident of Napoli winning this?
Flash:
I just think there’s a gulf in class, and also Bologna are not the Bologna at home that we were trying to rely on in the first six weeks of the season.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I think that when you look at the pricing it’s because between these sides it’s always been very even, sometimes it’s Bologna, sometimes it’s Napoli. I don’t know whether because Bologna have always been a team that’s classically good in the transitions, play direct football, physically, robust and athletic, it seems to really annoy Napoli who are more technical and don’t like to be bullied. So it’s almost like a clash of ideology and Mihajlovic has always managed to do rather impressive things against Napoli. So on this level, sometimes I don’t know what to think of, because Bologna have fallen a lot. They are the team that can either surprise you and manage some really impressive victories, or they are what they are, which is just a very mediocre team that sometimes just can’t get it together on the day.
Mina Rzouki:
I don’t know what to think with this game and I wanted to leave it alone, because I look at Napoli and it is such a strong team despite the fact that they have so many absences; Osimhen, not to mention Anguissa, and Koulibaly who are at the African Cup of Nations. Yet they’ve done so well with their replacements from Dries Mertens, and obviously Demme and Lobotka, but they are also a team that lost to Spezia. So who are they? Because they are going to be a little bit tired having played against Fiorentina, if you are a strong team up front they do struggle, I don’t know where to go with this side. I know it should be easy and you think to yourself yeah Napoli, but for me even -105 I’m not sure how much I believe in them because they are a team that’s very topsy-turvy to me.
Flash:
Matty, this comes under gift or trap? I’m happy to say gift.
Matty:
You know what seems like a gift is that team total over 1.5 at -105. I mean, you probably will never see this price again, kind of like what you were saying about Inter at +130 earlier. This is tricky because as we just mentioned, Napoli haven’t scored two goals in six games, well, now they just scored two against Fiorentina in the 96th minute. But Bologna on the flip side of that have conceded over 1.5 goals in five of their last six games. They have not been playing well on defense whatsoever, I think there’s a very, very good chance Napoli win this game and the most surprising handicap for this game that I saw is actually -1 at +180. Your free hit there it’s +180, I think that’s a fantastic look.
Flash:
Okay, hang on. Let me slow down. Let me break this down. So -1 at +180, so you want to be winning by two clear goals. So have you got this down as being 2:0 or 3:1? Because if you’ve got it down at being 2:0, you’re getting +165 for Bologna not to score meaning that brings them to 1:0.
Matty:
Yeah, I’m liking this to be 2:0, maybe 3:1 but I doubt it. Napoli has just had too much trouble scoring. Both teams to score is only graded at 40% for this matchup, and the over, well, the over 2.5 is not graded very high for this game either. It’s only hitting and 55% of these teams matches, so I don’t think we see over three. I think three is probably the max that we’ll see in this game, but I lean towards the under.
Flash:
And see all the value being in the away side winning?
Matty:
Yes I do.
Flash:
Yeah, I see -105 as a complete gift and it is one of them, a little bit like we saw with Inter earlier at +130. You’re not going to see Napoli around the even money against a side that’s struggling as much Bologna. So let’s have a little look at the official picks because for me, this was an absolute bumper for my parlay. I only had a three team parlay and I was going to put Inter in, I thought leave Inter because Mina’s got me covered there. So it’s Napoli moneyline for me and that’s my full flag and that’s at +433. I think that if all four of them win I don’t want to be with any of the -270s on their own, but Napoli moneyline -105 more than happy to be on my own. Now, let’s have a little look at all the official picks.
Flash:
You have a good read. And while you are reading the official picks, I’ll remind you and ask you that please subscribe if this is your first time. I hope you’ve enjoyed all the content, and if you want more content then bring the bell because we’ll notify you and then you’ll never miss any of the shows again. And we’ve got a lot coming up, we’ve only got I think three weeks away from Champions League, then Europa League, and we’ve got the Australian Open that starts on Monday down under. We’ll have Noobs and Snize going through their picks and predictions, they’ve done their futures already.
Flash:
Tomorrow will be the Bundesliga, they’re absolutely flying. Again, the presenter is letting them down so I’ve gone for plus money selections there. Everyone in the chat, please thumbs up on the way as a show of appreciation to Mina and Matty. Mina, your camera’s looking absolutely brilliant, I think everyone’s going to be so, so happy with that. Matty it doesn’t matter what camera you use Matt. From everyone at BetUS please enjoy Serie A this weekend. Join us again next week. Oh, and another one, we have a LaLiga card on Monday, so a show on Monday for LaLiga so we look forward to that as well. And don’t forget to check out our sportsbook! So from Mina, from Matty, from myself and from everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners and you take care.
