Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash and this is Serie A Show. It’s matchday 27 and I’m in a nice brand new shiny studio, which I’m looking forward to getting myself comfy, like new coat, new jumper, I’m quite happy. But we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like you to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means you’ll never miss any content again. And the Premier League, Serie A, LaLiga, Bundesliga, FA Cup tomorrow, just myself and you who join me, so please come and keep me company and we’ll have a good old conflab and see we can pick out some real tasty winners. Also, Champions League and Europa League. Champions League draw tomorrow. Cannot wait.
Now, if you like your odds and your props, then type in betustv.com/odds and if you find some odds or props that you love, then type in betustv.com/50. That means there’s a $50 free bet waiting for you. Now we’re going to have records, we’re going to have the chat. Well, I’m not having the chat, you’re having the chat, so please give us your opinions and also there’ll be a Q and A at the end.
I’ve got seven games to go through and I say “I” because, let’s pull the ladder up because I have two absolute experts, so I like family members. I’ve got the queen of Serie A in Mina Rzouki who came off a nice Champions League week because the Italian sides have done so well. And last week we had a stand-in, but we had to get him back because the stand-in went OM three. So the prince of numbers, corners and value and last year’s BetUS number one soccer capper in Mattie. Hi, so Mattie, I want to come to you first. It’s normally ladies first, but I’ll come to you first. Are you okay now?
Mattie:
Yeah. I’m ready to go here. We’ve got another great round of Serie A, so I’m excited, I’m ready to get back at it. It was nice to have a one-week little break here last week.
Flash:
Yeah. Did you say you’re… Sorry, Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
You didn’t miss us, Matt?
Mattie:
I did, of course I missed both of you very much.
Flash:
I like the way you said he’s excited. Any chance that you tell in your face that you’re excited? Let me just get to Claudio, anyway. Claudio do you have parties in that and yet you’re the only one in it because you say the same thing week in, week out, but the other side of me, the generous side, I’m like, “I’m so pleased that you take the time to even type, because that’s what it’s all about.” We are here for you. Even Ice has had a terrible year, but it is not over yet. You are one of those isn’t you? “I’m not going to get nothing for Christmas. I’m not going to get nothing for Christmas.” Then someone buys you something and everything’s rosy in the Claudio household. Mina, three Italian sides getting into the Champions League, is that now going to throw a little spanner on how they play in Serie A?
Mina Rzouki:
Potentially. I don’t know how that’s going to go, to be honest with you. It’s funny because you watch Inter do what they did against Porto and actually even their performances against Barcelona. And you wonder, it’s got to be a psychological issue because one, it’s against the good teams, it’s your Barcelona, it’s your Napoli, they’re exceptional, but then they come up against a Spezia and all of a sudden they don’t know how to play ball anymore. So there’s got to be some sort of motivation problem going on over there. Maybe everyone just feels that Napoli’s already won it, so what’s the point? If that makes sense?
Flash:
Yeah.
Mina Rzouki:
So there hasn’t been this fight, but it’s interesting to see you. Maybe you can say they got lucky in the Champion League with the draws that they have, but Spurs are not an easy side, honestly speaking, and neither Porto, we’ve seen them knock out four Italians recently. So I’m looking forward to seeing Napoli win it all.
Flash:
Yeah, listen, let’s hope so because a lot of people have got the +4,000 on Napoli. The big problem I’ve got is that they’ve chopped and changed, they had the World Cup, there’s been so many excuses and us as cappers, we’ve been hanging on to them excuses as well. Teams are like that because you’ve got your runaway Napoli because they play with that intensity. Week in, week out they don’t take their foot off the gas and they deserve it in everything they get as well.
Okay, let’s have a quick look at the records because it was a winning week last week for two of us, which is always nice. Okay, 30 units down, that’s not good. So Claudio, get yourself typing my lad, you are the voice of doom. Maybe things will change if we bar you, but obviously we cannot do that because we’re here for you.
Okay, we’ve got the chat, we’ve got the Q and A, so why don’t we just crack straight on with our first game, because our first game gives us good value for a home side. It’s Sassuolo at -130, Spezia +345, the draw is at +285, the numbers are set under or over two and a half with the over bet -130. Mina, Sassuolo, unbelievable result last week and scoring goals to boot. So is this a nice -130, don’t complicate it?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, -130 I think so. Maybe look for the value if you want to go for Sassuolo, plus one and a half because you imagine they would score two against Spezia. In the last six matches between these two sides there’s been three wins for Sassuolo and two draws, one only for Spezia and that was a while ago when they were under different management and different manager in Vincenzo Italiano, how we know from Fiorentina.
Now, here’s the thing about Sassuolo, there’s been a lot of chat about them because in the last seven matches, only Napoli have won more points than them, that’s really impressive. And the question you wonder is, “Why all of a sudden has it clicked?” And that’s because now they actually have some of their players back from injury. There’ve been so many long-term absences, we saw Pinamonti back scoring, we saw Laurienté in his full power, we saw Berardi available. So this is a team that has a really good attack and I really like their midfield, especially with Maxime Lopez. So over a Spezia side that’s away from home, if it was the other way around, I tell you it’s tricky, but for this I feel like definitely it’s a Sassuolo win. Over one and a half is -35. So if you imagine they score over two goals then there’s many, many better alternate lines, personally speaking
Flash:
Is the best Spezia can hope for, Mattie, like 2-1? Because I’m looking down, I’m thinking Spezia, if they don’t score and you don’t believe they’re going to score, it’s +170. But if you go with Sassuolo to win and both teams to score, this massive jump to 250.
Mattie:
Yeah, I agree with that. I think both teams to score is definitely a look for this game. And this is a really Interesting matchup at this point in this season. You have two teams at this point in the beginning of 2023, we didn’t really know what we were looking at with Sassuolo and they’ve been able to start climbing their way up their table a little bit now sitting in 13th. But both of these teams have actually managed points in four of their last five games, which is also impressive for Spezia.
In this game, I think maybe the best play on this board is goals. I think the over two and a half at -130 is really, really Interesting. Here we have a Sassuolo team at home that has conceded over one and a half goals and half of their home matches while we have a team in Spezia who’s conceded over one and a half goals in two thirds of their away matches this season. I don’t think either of these teams are keeping clean sheets. I’d like to both teams to score here. I think at least one of these teams can score two goals and I agree, I think Sassuolo is the favorite in this matchup for a reason. Both teams to score over two and a half looks good to me. Sassuolo win and both teams to score also another good look. I think there’s a lot more ways to get value out of this game than just taking Sassuolo to win.
Flash:
Yeah, without a doubt. I think Sassuolo scored twice at -135. So maybe you’d look at, even if it was worst case scenario and Sassuolo won 2-0, you’d go with Sassuolo to win and over one and a half or you cannot go with the Sassuolo to win an under three and a half because they could win 4-2, 5-1. It could be completely bonkers, but Spezia not to score is at +170. Now, we’ve got seven games. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks of game number one.
I think we did quite well here with the numbers anyway, because Sassuolo at over one and half is at +110 for, Mina, for I have gone with Sassuolo to win and both teams to score. So 2-1, 3-1, I’m a happy badger, especially getting a +250. Let’s move on to game number two.
Home side are a massive price here at +245. Salernitana host Bologna, Bologna at +120. What Bologna are you getting? Because they’re quite sturdy at the back but they’re not dominating games, they’re not creating clear cut chances. So Salernitana have a real opportunity here to pick up free points. Draw is at +225. Mattie, the under or over is at two and a half at +120. I’m not sure both teams score. I think Salernitana could nick this, I really could do.
Mattie:
Yeah. And this is interesting because this game is on the board and everybody’s probably looking at me like this is my game. And surprisingly this is not my game this week. But I do think this is a really interesting matchup. You have a Salernitana team that is starting to click just a little bit, picking up points in three straight games. The draw against Milan, a draw against Sampdoria and the 3-0 win against Monza in their last home match.
And you have a Bologna team that has been struggling a little bit recently after they were on a really good run of form, especially at home, but in their last 10 games they’ve actually picked up more points on the road than they have at home. They have three wins in their last five away games with losses to Torino, I believe, and to Lazio. So not horrible losses there, only giving up one goal in each of their last five games. So very, very likely they concede in this matchup. And I think the wild card really to me is it’s actually Salernitana in this matchup.
Do you get the Salernitana that’s playing down a goal all game and just trying to get that tying goal and settle with the draw, or do you get the team that goes out there, gets the first goal, and tries to defend the lead? So in this matchup I’m definitely leaning towards the under. I’m not seeing either of these team score twice. I think it’s very likely that they both can score, but I think one goal may actually be enough to win this matchup in this meeting.
Flash:
Yeah, Bologna have changed because their intensity has been, I think we’d have to go and find it with them or we wouldn’t be able to find it with a map or a compass. Mina, they’ve been very sort of lackluster, “We’ll just play around.” But Salernitana, if they start this game right, they could gain the free points and the upper hand very early on.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I can see why you are saying that, to be honest with you, because I do feel like looking at the way that it is and the way that Salernitana have been playing recently, especially with their ability to actually score goals because of how much they’ve changed formations and styles under Sousa and the importance of the likes of Candreva. To draw against Milan, and frankly speaking, I thought they had loads of chances. And then you look at their team and then you look at the opportunities that they keep creating upfront with Dia and I just think that there’s a very strong possibility that they can do something here.
The thing with Salernitana for me is they like to play ball against teams who also like to play ball. So if it’s an open side like a Milan, like a Juventus also at the start of the season, then they know how to attack that and do something special. But if you are very closed up like a Sampdoria that is physical in its presence, I feel like Salernitana don’t really have the answers to unlock the lock at the bank. And that’s what worries me because Bologna can lead into that quite well actually for them and attack you with their robust and physical ability and then try to find… They’re very opportunistic in their nature.
So I don’t know whether or not that there will be. I just don’t trust Bologna right now to score goals. And Arnautović is not really in the best of terms at the moment with Thiago Motta, the coach. I don’t know if Salernitana will find enough space in Bologna’s backline to do something. So I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this is a 0-0.
Flash:
Well, that that’s the reason I’ve actually gone with a home side at +245 is because I don’t believe that the goals are going to be there. So it might just be a set piece, it might just be that they get their noses in front and they will have the crowd behind them and they are actually trying to create a lot more. Unlike Bologna, that comes in with the Arnautović being unhappy, because they’re not creating the same chances as they were earlier on in the year.
It’s almost like they’re in between both. They don’t know where to go in, they’re almost like they’re taking it easy. It’s almost like they’re down tools so early on. And if they get something so be it, there’s no pressure on them, but Salernitana, they’ve got their fight in. So a +245, I think that’s a good value. I wouldn’t put anyone off of the double chance at -140. Mina, if that’s the right type of price for you, then I don’t see Salernitana getting beat.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I guess double chance is better.
Flash:
Yeah. Or draw, no bet will probably be, let me see. Someone went for draw, no bet, I think it was Ash. Yeah, let’s have a little quick look here, don’t mind me. First half draw, Salernitana team total over at four and a half corners. What about the corners, Mattie? Did you look at this game for corners, because Bologna against Torino, they sat back, they got dominated and then they had a little flurry and I think we lost our corner battle, something like -1.
Mattie:
Yeah, I didn’t look at this too hard because the numbers are pretty much dead even. This is actually a really low corner total for this round and they’re averaging seven and a half corners a game, which is also pretty well. But the numbers are almost identical. At home Salernitana earning 3.92 corners, Bologna on the road 3.58. And against is also identical, Salernitana conceding 4.6 corners, Bologna conceding 4.08 corners on the road. So their numbers are pretty identical so I don’t really have a pick for this game corner wise.
Flash:
Okay, just a little bit more, maybe a little bit of homework for you. Obviously it’s going to give you a bit of an edge, is when you want corners and you are betting on an over corners for a certain team, try and make sure that they hit in-swinging corners. So from the left it’s a right footer because then obviously you can have your flick-ons from defenders and it’ll go out for another corner and you’re going to get a couple of corners again and again. Whereas if they’re out-swinging, they’re so much easier to defend and it makes a defender’s favorite. I cannot believe that I see so many out-swinging corners when the in-swinger brings in own-goals and makes the forward-thinking players or attacking players so much more of an advantage. Just have a little look at the official pick, game number two of seven.
Mina Rzouki:
Also, probably worth noting that or Orsolini who plays in the front, is actually away for this match. And he’s been so important for Bologna going forward and in finalizing things in the front. So without him and with Arnautović out of favor, I don’t know if they have enough going forward. So I do think that gives it more for Salernitana.
Flash:
Yeah, I think Salernitana’s turning up here on the way to the game thinking, “There’s three points waiting for us here.” Yes, Mattie?
Mattie:
Yeah so Arnautović, he started on the bench last game, came in in the second half, and Orsolini is just a huge part of that offense. So it’ll be interesting to see how they start out their lineup in this game for sure.
Flash:
Yeah, okay, Salernitana draw, no bet, is at +135 but I’ve gone greedy, it’s about time I started kicking some profit down the road. So it’s Salernitana moneyline at +245 and that’s basically on the back of I don’t think Bologna are going to score, and I think Salernitana can take the ball by the horns very early on. Let’s go to game number three.
Udinese here at +245, host a Milan side at +115. The draw is at +240, but I think this game’s all about the under and over because the under two and a half is at -125, which I was expecting it to be around the -140. Mattie, take it away because I don’t see both teams scoring here but I certainly don’t see one of them scoring three.
Mattie:
Yeah, this is a fantastic matchup and this is really interesting. Udinese has gotten four draws in their last five home matches and they’ve conceded in every single one of those matches. In fact, they’ve actually conceded two goals in three of those five matches. Milan is a very interesting team right now. Having a little bit of trouble on the road, only picking up points in two of their last five away games, and that also includes a fixture against Tottenham, actually. But I think this is a fantastic matchup this week. Udinese is a team that absolutely loves draws. Right now and what we’ve seen since the end of October is Udinese are really, really struggling to win games, but they’re managing to pick up points in a majority of those, which I think is very important. And they actually are coming off a 1-0 win against Empoli last week.
I really like both teams to score in this game but my favorite play for this game is actually going to be draw. In terms of points per games, there’s a ranking system one to three, or actually zero to three, that I look at occasionally, and if the numbers are fairly even I don’t mind going for a draw. And the numbers for this game Udinese grades at a 1.33 and Milan grades at a 1.46, and what all that means is that Milan is 10% better in terms of points per game on the road than Udinese is at home. But the numbers are so similar, the inspected goals are so similar for these teams scoring and conceding. This game has 1-1 written all over it and in fact three the last four meetings between these teams ended 1-1. So I’m playing the draw, I think at +240 it’s excellent value and I definitely think Udinese can hang in this game and I feel like they will be happy with the draw in this meeting.
Flash:
I think if you’re going to get a draw, you’re going to get a 0-0 and obviously the draw is at +240 whereas Udinese not to score is it +180. I prefer a Milan 1-0 win to be honest, Mina, so Udinese at +180 or you go under two and a half goals at -125 and that brings in the 1-1 draw.
Mina Rzouki:
This is a really difficult one for me. I think it’s a draw or it’s an Udinese win. Despite that, this is where I got really confused with all of this because Udinese have actually only won three games at home and Milan have only got five games away from home in 13 tries. So we know that Milan away from home have been a little bit disastrous this season. And they’re conceding goals they at least concede the goal away from home on average. So that doesn’t make for great reading at the moment.
Now, between these two sides, in the last six matches between the two sides, it’s either Milan or a draw, Udinese haven’t won at all since 2020. So that’s something to consider. There’s usually, well there has been under two and a half goals scored because of the way that Milan had been playing recently, which is sort of favoring the defense. And because Rafael Leão hasn’t shown up in the last 10 games, he hasn’t scored a goal, he’s finding it strange to score in this new formation that they’ve done to adapt to the problems that they have in midfield and in defense.
So it seems like this team is still finding it’s, feet and frankly speaking, I just don’t think they look good enough at the moment unless they’re playing very defensive football, which is what they might choose to do here. In that case, I would support a 0-0. But actually if anything, I think Udinese can get something out of this because of the poor away form of Milan just like I said last week when it came to Inter-Spezia, and I wish I took that bet.
Flash:
So basically you are saying that Udinese can win this game. Are you thinking that Udinese, if they win this game it’s 1-0, 2-1?
Mina Rzouki:
No, I think it’s more of a 1-0 I just. Well, here’s another thing as well that’s important to note is Giroud is out for this and Ibrahimović has to play the whole game. And unfortunately that’s-
Flash:
But they’ve not played Rebić up there as a force nine?
Mina Rzouki:
Probably not, no, from the team that they’ve decided to probably go with, it’s going to be Díaz, Leão, Ibrahimović.
Flash:
Wow, okay.
Mina Rzouki:
And so that for me isn’t a side that I think is going to score tons of goals. Now, off the bench who they decide to go for it can be anyone really, so possibly Origi. We know that De Ketelaere’s having huge problems at the moment so his confidence is shot. So it’s about whether or not Ibrahimović, this is a great game in which he can really try to assert himself. So I don’t know if that’s something where he will try to announce himself but I always feel a little bit weary to bet on Milan when they’re away from him and especially if they are without Giroud. But they have good news in the sense that Bennacer is back in the middle and Tomori will start this match. But like I said, this game, it doesn’t fill me with much confidence. Meanwhile, Pereyra is back in the middle for Udinese and I just think that he really lets them play beautifully, frankly speaking, when he’s available and playing to his potential.
Flash:
Yeah, I like this being and unders first half, I think 0-0 at halftime.
Mina Rzouki:
I agree.
Flash:
Now, if you think Milan are not going to score, I think you’re going to get around +300, because that’s on the numbers of Udinese not scoring or at +180. I just think under two I don’t see free goals in this game. I think this is a game where Milan are going to try nick it 1-0 and Udinese, if they go up 1-0, then worst case scenario we’re going to see a 1-1. I just wonder about Milan having a little bit more depth in on their bench and finding a way. I think this is 0-0 for a long period. Remember, go to betus.com they have a 75-minute market. This does smell of a draw after 75 minutes, but a draw over 90 minutes or 95 is at +240. Just have a little look at the official picks please.
Okay, what have we got? Under two and a half at -125 for me, only because I don’t see free goals. A draw at +240, wouldn’t put anyone off of a draw half-time but, Mina does lean Udinese, and if Udinese are going to win it’s going to be 1-0, I fancy. Okay, let’s move on. I don’t even know why this game’s on so I’m going to be very interested here. I’m going to sit back and become like you in the chat.
Fiorentina versus Lecce at -170. Are you crazy? Lecce a +500 for the away win but the draw at +290, now which Fiorentina turns up because they’re -125 to score twice, Lecce are only +100. So near off a flip of a coin to even get on the score-sheet. So when you put your maths together, it’s Fiorentina win to nil. Mina, can we trust Fiorentina to keep a clean sheet at home and win?
Mina Rzouki:
Well, keeping it clean, this is the question mark that we have hanging over them. The last time they played each other it was a 1-1 in October and you could really tell that Fiorentina were having these problems converting their chances, which are the problems that they have at the moment. But I think they’ve really picked up speed recently and they’ve started to show you just how well that they can play. It was obviously an easy game for them against Cremonese last week, so you would expect that.
But Lecce are just not a team that really find the back of the net. They failed to score on their last three matches. They’ve actually lost those three matches of course and Fiorentina have won. So if we’re talking about streaks at the moment, Fiorentina are riding high, I think Cabral, Jović, Ikoné, there’s one or two of them that can always finish off some of the chances because I think Mandragora has been essential to how this team has been playing right now. And I think I really wanted to bet on him to score a goal in this last match and I was really upset because as I was looking to do it, he scored, and I was like, “Ah,” in the game.
So I really feel like Vincenzo Italiano’s tactics take a while to really get on board with the rest of the team, especially after he lost Vlahović, he hasn’t been able to find a finisher, but slowly they’re trying to produce. Lecce meanwhile, if you look at that performance against Torino, especially on a defensive level, you know that they can concede. Usually though they’ve had such a good defense but recently hasn’t been that way and I feel like they’re going down in a little bit of a psychological hole at the moment. So I would go probably Fiorentina. Lecce to score? I don’t think so. No, you’re right, a 1-0, an under two and a half in all honesty for me.
Flash:
Okay, because the over two and a half is at +110. Mason came in with both teams to score. If you come in with both teams to score, the big price will be Fiorentina maybe -1 at +105, looking at the 3-1 or the over and not worry who wins because I think this game is a very, very tricky game, Mattie, where Lecce, they might have a little bit more of the play than we think. And Fiorentina have been so aggressive in their running that I don’t know what’s going to give here, but if Fiorentina go one up, it could be two or three.
Mattie:
And what’s really Interesting about this fixture and what I really like is at the start of the new year, there were two teams that we pointed out and one was Lazio, who the numbers suggested were due to regress at some stage, which they eventually did. And then the other team was Fiorentina who was severely underperforming, and we said it week after week, “They look really good, they’re just not winning.” And finally they are now seven games unbeaten in all competition. And this is the first, maybe the second game where the price finally really reflects how this team has been playing. And I think they’ve been playing extremely well. Fiorentina, I think they’re finally clicking on all cylinders.
However, I am totally skipping over everything that is on this board right here and I’m going straight to corners because the thing about Fiorentina is they have been absolutely by far the best corner team in Italy all season long. At home they’re averaging 7.15 corners by themself, which is absolutely remarkable. It’s actually one and a half corners more than the second place team. And during this season as well, they’re only conceding 2.6 corners against per game. So on average they’re beating teams in the corner battle by five or more corners.
On the flip side of that, Lecce has been one of the worst corner teams, especially on the road, only averaging 3.9 corners and conceding over six per game. So this is a no-brainer for me. I’ve said this a couple times on the show and I haven’t taken it, I think a couple weeks ago when Fiorentina played Empoli they were minus two and a half and I think they ended up covering by six or seven corners. So just absolute dominant performance. So that’s what I’m taking this week. I think this is the most simple and probably the best play that I have on the board for this week and I do think Fiorentina come out with the win. I think that -1 is probably a push, but it definitely seems like a free hit [inaudible 00:27:28].
Flash:
Okay, what about the line being eight and a half corners? We’d go over eight and a half or are we only looking at one team to contribute here or we going handicap?
Mattie:
I’m really only looking at one team here. I’m really only looking at Fiorentina. I would rather play their team total on corners, which I don’t have a price for yet. I would rather play that than play the full game over. And I’m trying to see if I have one line available for that.
Flash:
And what’s the handicap here?
Mattie:
It’s minus two and a half. It was +130 yesterday, or I’m sorry, +108 yesterday. It looks like I’m seeing -120 now. So that has actually heavily moved. It’s moved by about 40 cents already since I looked at it last night.
Mina Rzouki:
[inaudible 00:28:12].Flash:
Who’s that?
Mina Rzouki:
Is it worth going over nine and a half in the game?
Mattie:
Let me see what that’s priced at. Nine and a half is that +115. I don’t think it’s a bad bet. I think Fiorentina, you can get seven to 10 by themself, just I don’t know how many goals they’ll concede.
Flash:
Yes, sort of how just getting thrown a couple of dummies in the [inaudible 00:28:32], it’s Sivasspor actually, it’s Feyenoord versus Shakhtar. You knew how to give me a little bit of thinking, “My god, Fiorentina in Europa Conference League action tonight.” So that might be there could be a little hangover, but Fiorentina will be on the front foot very, very early on and I think the -1 at +105, but I think the corners is probably the way to go. Fiorentina, team total over six and a half corners is at +100 Mattie, so we’re looking at -130 for the over five and a half.
Mattie:
Yeah. That does look pretty good and just to read off some of their last corner numbers at home, these are just for themselves, not including the other team. 11, 13, 5, 5, 6, and 9. Those are all the home matches in January, or from January to March. Their last home match was against Milan. This was actually right before their Europa Conference game and they managed to get 11 in that game, which is very impressive. They actually got the first eight corners in that game, which is ridiculous. They’ve only conceded one first half corner in their last five home matches. That is very impressive actually.
Flash:
Well, it is, if you can get -1 corner first half. Minus 1.5 corners first half may well be the way to, go because they will jump all over. Listen, let’s have a little look at the official picks because forget about everything we’ve said…
Sorry, Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
I’ll take that in the first half.
Flash:
Yeah, so Mattie, you’ve got to find a number for us there for Mina to add. She sniffed out a bit of value there. So basically just get a-
Mattie:
Yeah, I got to find a place where I can find that line because I’m going to take that too.
Flash:
Yeah, no worries. Bar some [inaudible 00:30:14]-
Mattie:
I’ll get back to you on that.
Flash:
Nine and a half corners is at -125. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official pick, it’s Fiorentina minus two and a half corners, +108. Expect that to move, because we expect Fiorentina to absolutely dominate the game, which means it’s probably going to culminate in them having more corners. But remember that having more corners first half, if the line’s at one and a half you may even get like your -120, -125 but we’ll come back to that no problem. Let’s move on because this side had been so impressive.
Not just in Serie A, but obviously all across Europe, it’s Torino +400 against Napoli at -130. A lot of people will just go, “Oh, -1 for even Napoli?” The best side maybe in Europe at the moment, the draw is at +250. Under or over, the under two and a half is at -140, so you’ve got to look for Napoli to score twice, and for them to score twice it’s -105. Mina, you can go first here because it’s Napoli, Torino. Torino like to, I don’t know, puff their chest out and put in half a performance at home, but against Napoli I think they’ll be put in their place rather quickly.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I think so too. I’m a little bit surprised by the fact that it’s -130 for Napoli, considering how they’ve been playing and their ability to always destroy Torino. Torino have a really tough time when it comes to playing Napoli, always have, they’re not very good against teams that play quick passing combinations. They’re a very stagnant team in the way that they play their football, frankly speaking, and they really struggle actually at home, Torino, this season to score the necessary goals. So I think that that’s something to also look at. So maybe just looking over here, so under a half for Torino is at +115. And that could be something to look at because goals for Torino at home, it’s really 11 goals. Only Cremonese and Sampdoria have scored less goals at a home, so that tells you a lot about the way that they’ve been playing recently and they just haven’t been able to find the net, frankly speaking.
When you look at the way the Napoli had been playing and what you can expect to see. Also, all the bonuses that Osimhen will make if he scores over 20 goals. And I think that’s something that he’s going to want to start to activate on his contract because it’s starting to get easier and easier for them. They have solutions all over the pitch, they’re the best team away from home in Serie A, so I wouldn’t go for either because there’s probably more value on going for Napoli. It’s just about how many goals do you think they are. So can you go for Napoli or both teams to score? No. If you think they’re going to pay a clean sheet, I actually think I would go for a clean sheet for Torino because I actually don’t even think that even if they’re at home they can manage anything here.
Flash:
Okay. So let’s look at this because we know the energy that comes from the visitors. So Torino not to score is at +115, Napoli free hit, because we expect Napoli to score a minimum of one, -1 is +150. Napoli wins to nil, so that’s going to be obviously a combination that might be around -125. Let’s have a little look. JR saying general results for Napoli to win, it may be a draw, 0-0 at halftime. That’s the other one. Torino team total, first off, I fancy Napoli, Matt, here are going to be far too strong here. -1 at +150 looks like the old proverbial free hit, but maybe a saver on Torino not to score that +115. Because listen, Torino do know how to defend, especially at home.
Mattie:
Yeah, I’m going to try to simplify this game as much as I possibly can here. Basically what you get with Torino at home is they will score one goal and they’re either going to shut you out or you’re going to score one goal and get a draw. Not very many teams can score two on them. If you score two against Torina at home, very very likely you’re going to win the game. That’s basically what Torino does. It’s not very often they score two or more goals at home. It does happen, I think the last time they actually did do that was a couple weeks ago against Cremonese when that game ended 2-2.
With that said Napoli is seven 1-1 in their last nine games covering a -1 spread. It lost once against Lazio and it pushed one time against Roma. They have been playing and doing, covering that against much better teams than Torino that had much better records against the spread than Torino. To take this for what it’s worth, you have a Napoli side that is dominating everybody they play in all competitions with Osimhen who is clearly right now in my opinion a top five player in the world, doing what he’s doing on everything.
Flash:
He’s so Drogba-esque.
Mattie:
Yeah. And-
Mina Rzouki:
He’s just fantastic, fantastic.
Mattie:
He is fantastic and he’s leading the charge on this Napoli team who is just beating everybody and just brutally, really. And so I’m taking the -1. +150 it is the most value on this board other than Torino moneyline. But I do agree with you. I think Torino not to score is a value play. I definitely do.
Flash:
Oh, it is.
Mattie:
But I would almost rather play Napoli team total over one and a half instead of Torino not to score though.
Flash:
But then you are also more worried about Napoli winning 1-0, because remember they have had a busy fixture list. And because he might just pull them off, do you know what I mean?
Mattie:
Yeah.
Flash:
Listen, Serie A is in the bag but they’ve got a real opportunity here. Every time they progress in the Champions League, they’re rewriting the history. We know that the problems that are on the streets of Napoli at the moment. So it’s almost like a siege mentality of this city coming together. I think Napoli win to nil. 2-0 I’ve got for Napoli, yes Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
Napoli have scored two goals in nine of their last 10 matches, and they kept a clean sheet in five of their last six. So this is where you can decide what you want to do, whether or not you want to go over one and a half. But actually the more I look at it, because there’s been a lot in their history. Obviously the last time they played it was a 3-1 to Napoli, but a lot of the others have been a 1-0, so maybe it’s worth going for the -1 at +150 because it’s a lot of value.
Flash:
Yeah, and it’s a free hit. Let’s having little look at the official pick, because obviously we’re cheering on Napoli. Nothing against Torino but it’s just like beauty, it’s just so easy on the eye. Okay, Napoli -1 at +150, but remember Torino not to score. I’ve got this down as being a 2-0 away win so, Torino not to score is a +115 as well, let’s move on to, big game, it’s the- Go on, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
I want to add that as well to me for Napoli.
Flash:
Okay. Just remind me at the end when we do the best bets please. Okay, so we’ve got the Rome derby and it’s Lazio verses Roma. Lazio at +175, Roma at +180, tells you everything, look at the bottom. Draw is at +205. How do you split these two sides? Lazio to score, well, twice is going to be what? 135. Roma are going to be the same. It’s a pick’em, under or over two, it really is. Make up your mind on which side you want to go on and just stick with it, because Mattie, Roma, what do they bring to the table? Because it’s one of those, it’s either good, bad or indifferent.
Mattie:
Yeah, I think both of these teams. This seems like a draw, you just look at these two sides going at it and you’re like, “Oh, one of them might play really good and the other one might play really good.” But we really don’t know what we’re going to get. If we get these two teams at their best, I think this is a draw. I think these guys are equal when they’re playing at their best and neither of you will probably agree with that.
Flash:
What type of draw though? Because it’s big when the numbers at set at two.
Mattie:
Yeah and let’s see what the numbers are saying for this. The over two and a half does grade out at 54%, so it’s actually one of the higher matches of the week. But these numbers for both of these teams, I’m telling you, they’re absolutely identical really.
Flash:
But because of the derby, mate, can we throw that out the window, because the emotion could really just kick off here?
Mattie:
Yeah. This total being at two, this just screams 1-1, this has to be a 1-1. I really almost want to take correctional 1-1 in this.
Flash:
Excuse me please.
Mattie:
All of their numbers are identical. Yes, this is the derby and all of that factors in. The last two meetings between these teams, one of them got shut out, Roma being the last team and Lazio two matches before that. But what the numbers are saying for this game is that this is a draw. Both of these teams, Lazio at home and Roma away, averaging 2.62 goals exactly both of them. Lazio scoring 1.6, Roma scoring 1.4, Lazio conceding 0.9, Roma conceding 1.2. Everything in this game just points to a draw. In terms of form, Lazio on that same zero to three scale I mentioned earlier, Lazio grades at a 1.85 at home and Roma’s a 1.69 on the road. Lazio is 9% better in terms of points per game at home than Roma is at-
Flash:
But they both play in the same stadium. So look at Roma’s home and Lazio at home.
Mattie:
Yeah. Flash, this is a draw. I have nothing else to say for this game.
Flash:
+205, that’s what it says.
Mattie:
This has to be a draw.
Flash:
Okay. Is it a score draw?
Mattie:
I can’t spot these guys. This is a draw in this game, 100%. I’m adding this as a pick. This is a 100% a draw. I’m actually going to take-
Flash:
So that’s a draw at +205. Mina, can you split these two because it is one of those, they’re both at home. I remember going for one of them and they were like 3-0 down in 25 minutes. I think the over two at -115 is just nailed on because it becomes more than just a game about points.
Mina Rzouki:
Honestly, I disagree in the sense that if they both play to their very best of their abilities, I think Lazio is a much better team. I think that if they are concentrated and maintain that center in which they play within 25 meters and they move as a block, which I think is so fascinating to watch and I thought they were exceptional against Napoli, personally speaking, I just find that when they’re at their very best, Lazio can be super entertaining to watch, but one thing you have to note is that Immobile is out, which might actually be a good thing because Smalling can handle that kind of player and so that could be interesting because then you are left with Zaccagni, if he banned isn’t obviously, and then you have a lot more movement up front. So I think it’ll be interesting to go that way.
And I actually, from a defensive point of view, Roma look like the defensive team because that’s how they play, but Lazio have a really great defensive record. So we’ve seen that, they haven’t conceded and they’ve kept a clean sheet in their last four matches. All their matches in the last few weeks have been under two and a half, if anything. And they’ve been undefeated in the last nine. Whereas Roma don’t have [inaudible 00:41:27] on the bench. Now that’s a big thing to not have in the derby, so that’s something that you need to consider as well.
I don’t know, you always have some sort of obviously a threat with the likes of Dybala coming through that can always make a difference. But for me, I’m going to be honest with you, I think this is a Lazio win. It was a Lazio win when they last played and usually when Lazio play at home and it’s their fans in the stadium and the away fans are the Roma fans, they win. I actually don’t see how Roma… Roma have an opportunity from free kicks because they’re so good in set pieces, but personally speaking, I don’t know, double chance has no value in it if you decide to go for Lazio. But I do think for me I would go for a pick’em.
Flash:
Lazio, pick’em at -115. Mason’s come up with an absolute beauty I cannot see failing. As long as you get a price, I’ve asked him for the price as well. It’s both teams to have minimum of two bookings. Over one and a half bookings each, these two, you know they don’t like each other and they do leave their foot in and they have got players that have got a little bit of pace, and if there’s frustrations, then you are going to see the yellow cards branded out. Obviously you might want to do a little bit more homework and get the referee but listen, just pay your money, choice Lazio +175, pick’em is -115, and the draw is a +205 as well.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks even though we’re going to be adding and taking away. Okay, so Mina’s gone for Lazio pick’em -115. Mattie is going to add the draw at +205. By the time we get to the best bets that may have been erased, he may have gone back and feel, “There’s a reason I didn’t put this in the first place,” and that was it.
Mattie:
So I got 1-1 correct score +500. That’s how I’m going to play.
Flash:
You’re going to play that?
Mattie:
This is a 1-1. This is a 1-1. This is 100% a 1-1.
Flash:
Well, the team will like it because would raise the OM three from last week’s performance.
Mattie:
If you’re watching this live, my analysis that this game is horrible, but when you play the clip back after this game ends, you’re going to be like, “Oh yeah, yeah, that’s all. He just said all he needed to say.”
Flash:
Exactly. 1-1 it was.
Mina Rzouki:
I think that anyone is that confident to go for it, frankly speaking.
Mattie:
Okay.
Flash:
Yeah, +500.
Mattie:
So Flash, just so you know, I’ve been making a parlay during this show and I think I have a really good one. So after this next game I’ll unveil it. I want to run it by you, see what you guys think.
Flash:
Excellent. Okay, Mason, “Can’t find the price but the [inaudible 00:43:54] draw. I think both teams scored…” Okay, listen, we’ll get to that when we get to the best bets. Let’s get to another unbelievable game with sets of fans and history, but I’m wondering if this turns into a bit of a damp squid because it’s Inter versus Juve. Straightaway the draw is at +240, the home side at -105. Juve at +310, which is gigantic, because Inter had the runaround midweek. Over two and a half goals, is it +115. I think this is tight, this is cagey. Mina, you can take this away because for me it’s the away side or nothing, but I think if it’s hard to pick between a side at -105 and a visiting side at +310 who may be getting their points back as well, has that been confirmed yet?
Mina Rzouki:
No, not yet. We won’t have a decision on that for at least until April 3rd, I would say, is when the decision will be made on what to do about this.
Flash:
But the jungle drums are ringing and like you can hear in the distance, they are going to get their points back.
Mina Rzouki:
It seems that way. It keeps changing according to media personnel, but I think they are quite confident of getting it back. Now here’s the thing, Inter at home are the best defensive side in Serie A. They’ve conceded less goals than even Napoli when you have. They’ve actually conceded six all season at home at San Siro. It’s remarkable when you consider that away from home they’ve conceded 24. That’s a huge difference. That’s four times the amount. So you wonder what’s going on there.
Motivation is a huge thing for Inter. If they are playing the game [inaudible 00:45:28] side, they try to show you their best. We’ve seen that from cup competitions. They’ve won the Supercoppa. The Coppa Italia, they’re in the semi-finals, and obviously they’ve done quite well in the Champions League, they’ve reached the quarter-finals. Now, Juventus, Vlahović has just scored for them against Freiberg. Now, he’s the guy that everyone has been waiting on to just unleash himself. So now that he’s managed to get that goals, does this mean this is the start of a “pop and you can’t stop” kind of thing and then all of a sudden he’s going to go on this way going forward?
I just feel like at +310 for Juventus to win and they’re second in the table. If they get their 15 points back, they’ve done better than Inter, and that’s including all of the absences they’ve had, then I just feel like it’s just so much value. And even if you go for a double chance score, I just feel like right now the value’s all on Juventus. And when you consider that if they have the 15 points back, they’ve done much better than Inter in general, I think it’s too much of a good thing to go away. But remember, Inter only conceded six away from home. So if this is going to be a Juventus win, it’s going to be a tight one.
Flash:
Very, very tight game here, Mattie. And just to let you know, Mina, your jinx is not just confined to Serie A, it does stretch out to the Europa League because Vlahović has just lost his goal on [inaudible 00:46:52]. Mattie-
Mina Rzouki:
What? No.
Mattie:
Yep, that’s right.
Mina Rzouki:
Did he really? The poor fellow.
Flash:
Yeah. No, we can’t make things up like that. That’ll be just brutally lying. Mattie?
Mina Rzouki:
He’s scoring. He feels the joy of scoring, so let’s see.
Flash:
Yes, exactly. He knows he can. That’s it. So as long as you know can, that’s as good as scoring. Mattie?
Mattie:
This is probably the best game on the board in Serie A this week. This is the one that I think that most people are going to watch. You have an Inter team that is in really good form at home especially. They’ve won five straight games at home, they’ve won eight out of their last nine at home. Going up against a Juventus team that has finally found a rhythm and have been smooth sailing for quite a while now, four wins in their last five games. They’ve looked really good and I would totally agree, I think the value is all on Juventus here because anything over +300 for them is a little bit ridiculous.
Realistically this should probably be closer to like +220. I am surprised to see this at such a high price, even though Inter are great form, especially at home. With that said, I think other than that, Juventus being the value on the board, I think this total was really interesting, because I actually like the under in this game. But for this matchup, we really have two scenarios. For example, you have the Juventus team that gives up two goals to a Torino team that doesn’t score two goals very often, but they also score four goals in that game. So you have an absolute shootout.
And we’ve seen Inter get into quite a few of those this season as well. And you have the other side of things where you events play really, really good defense and don’t concede like they’ve done in most of their recent games. And you have the same thing with Inter at home. Maybe that’s what they do. I’m leaning towards more of a low scoring game in this matchup. Both teams the score is going to be the lowest graded one of the entire round. Juventus is only hitting both teams of score in 17% of road games all season, Inter not much better, only 30% of their home games have both teams to score. And ironically Juventus has both teams to score has missed in four straight on the road and Inter have missed both teams to score in four of their last five at home, only conceding to Udinese.
So I feel like this is a very low scoring game. I think the draw is definitely in play here and maybe that’s why that Juventus price is so high, they’re trying to draw people away from the draw and to take Juventus instead. So I don’t know, I definitely think the under is a decent play here and maybe both teams to score no and under two and a half could get you a lot of value, probably +150, +160 for that. I could definitely see that happening, but I don’t know who wins this game. I feel like one goal could win this game for either team or we could see an absolute shootout where it’s 3-2, who knows? So I’m staying away from this one, but-
Flash:
It’s a game to enjoy it. You’ve just spoken for 10 minutes there and come up with absolutely nothing. It is true, but that’s how the game is because I think the draw at +240, I’ve got the game bet 1-1 or even 0-0 and just canceling each other out because of the respect, because of the quality. I’ll tell you, if you was a brave man you’d go Juve double chance at -115, surely?
Mina Rzouki:
This is what I mean-
Flash:
Double chance.
Mina Rzouki:
For Inter, right? Lukaku is in terrible form. Dzeko, we saw what he did against Porto, he’s so slow at the moment and he’s taking too many extra touches on the ball. Correa’s just, you can strike him out. So we’re depending a lot on Lautaro Martínez, who misses every penalty he has. He is amazing when he wants to be, but sometimes on a confidence level, if he’s out, then it can be dangerous. So my thing is who’s scoring these goals? But they do create a lot. They have 21 shots on goal in that last match and only eight of those were on target. So they’re just not cynical enough upfront. But Juventus, if you have Di María come on and Chiesa come on, who are injured doubts at the moment, but likely to show up. I don’t know, with Vlahović upfront and it’s [inaudible 00:51:05]-
Flash:
But it comes back to what you said right at the very beginning. They’ve only let in six goals at home all season. Do you know what I mean? Listen, let’s have a little look at the official picks and honestly good luck with whatever you go with. But any time like this, I go with the best price because I don’t look at the Juve win at +300, I look at Juve double chance at -115. But I’ve gone with the draw at +250, I cannot split these two sides. You have gone with Juve draw, no bet at +200. Sorry, listen to draw means the team wins.
Okay, now it’s time for a Q and A, which I’ll be very surprised if you’ve got Q and A after we cover every single game in Serie A this weekend. But before that, I’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. More importantly though, we’ve got so many odds and so many props, so please go over, type in betustv.com/odds and obviously there will be odds, props, lines that you’ve never even thought were there. And if you find something you’d like them, type in betustv.com/50, there’s a $50 free bet from one of the odds or props that you saw from the other link. Okay, no questions.
“Locatelli gets a card at +190.” Mason says, “I’m passing on the game.” JR says, “Inter will beat Juve 2-1.” Let’s have a little look at the official picks and now will be the time, experts, to be add in. So Mina, Flash, and obviously Alex, is going to become Mattie this week.
So it’s a Udinese-Milan draw, +240. Fiorentina, minus two and a half corners at +108. Napoli, -13 here at +150. I’ve got a bit of yellow there as Udinese-Milan under two and a half goals at -125. Push me for I’ve got 0-1 to Milan. Now into Juve. Draw at +240, Salernitana at moneyline at +245 and a bigger one, Sassuolo, both teams score at +250. I’m looking for 10 units this weekend. Juve draw, no bet, +200 for the queen. Lazio pick’em at -115. And Sassuolo, an over one and a half at +110. Mina, what was the one you liked and wanted to add?
Mina Rzouki:
I wanted go for Napoli -1 at +150.
Flash:
Okay, so Napoli -1 at +150 with all three of us basically see that as a free hit because we’re cheering on Napoli just because it’s good for the game. So from everyone in the chat, really appreciate it. Thumbs up on the way out, shows a bit appreciation to Mina and Mattie. From myself, from everyone at BetUS, you can see Mina and Mattie again very soon because it’s going to be International week next week. So relax, enjoy, and we’ll see you again very soon. You take care.
