Serie A Odds
Flash:
Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash. It’s Serie A Show, it’s match day 28. Well, we’ve got nerves, we’ve got fatigue. We’ve got squad strengths really being tested. The amount of times I’ve seen all over social media, does anyone want to win Serie A? We’re going to put our best foot forward and try and throw some light on some of these teams and why we’re seeing such strange results. But first of all, we are America’s favorite sports book, so we’d like to invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers, just on the BetUS soccer odds channel. Ring the bell. Ring the bell means that we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content again, which is a bonus because next week, it’s Champions League, it’s Europa League and it’s the Players Championship, which for you that don’t know, is golf, and it’s known as the Fifth Major at Sawgrass.
Flash:
You may well have seen the little par 3, 17th, which is in the middle of the water. So good luck with that. I’ve got Mina, who is the queen of Serie A, who’s banging her head against a brick wall at the moment, because if she goes over three… oh, she goes under 3½, there’s four. If she goes under 2½, there’s two. But the information that she’s giving is actually not turning into winners, but it is invaluable to so many. And her co-pilot is the prince of numbers, stats, and corners. More importantly for everybody, especially myself and the queen, winners. And we love winners, which comes into massive profits. And we’ll look at the records in just a while. But first of all, Mina, we’re seeing so many teams at the top. They’re struggling the teams at the bottom. So now we’ve got to cipher through and see who we actually trust.
Mina:
Yeah. I mean, if there were any question marks as to why Juventus dominated for nine reasons, it’s because look at the landscape. There is a lot of parity between teams. There isn’t a side that really stands out with a lot of proven winners, with a strong mentality. So you sort of understand why Juventus dominated for so long. Actually, people still think they’re in the race. But finally, Napoli showed us some steel last weekend and went to the top of the table. Of course, Inter do still have a game in hand, but it just kind of seems like this is the most unpredictable season, because it’s like we said, sometimes you think this is surely going to be a winner. Surely Inter will defeat Genoa. Surely Milan will defeat Salernitana. And it’s just unpredictability followed by more unpredictability. And honestly, I’m at a loss for words.
Flash:
Yeah. And this is probably where you should come up smelling of flowers, to be honest, Mattie, because you got to put emotion and what you see out of the window and just go with the numbers and it served you so, so well, so far.
Mattie:
Yeah. So the good thing about these bad teams being able to hang in there with the good teams is that there’s value all across the board. So hopefully, we can find some place for this week. This is a tough match day, number 28.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, you say it’s tough, but again, like I said in the premier league show earlier, if you can go with your conviction, there’s plenty big value out there. Because again, you don’t go with the obvious, because these books, they take a defensive stance against the bigger sides. Well, the bigger sides are not actually performing like the bigger sides. But before we start breaking down [inaudible 00:03:28], we’ve got seven games for you. That means that if you want to talk about some games we’re not covering, there’ll be a Q&A before the picks section at the end of the show. So get yourselves in the chat. And if you want to about the games as we go, then obviously do that as well, because you are our third guest. Let’s have a little look at the records. I managed to pull a little bit back last week in all four of the leagues. I’ll not say pulled back. Now some of them are absolutely flying.
Flash:
3.28 for me, Mattie is at 16.86. He’s our number one soccer caper at the moment. Total is at -2.43, so I think the whole job and the remit at the moment is to just first of all, get the Serie A record into positive territory, and then we’ll start looking at repairing and putting a bandage on a couple of the experts on this show, myself being one of them. Okay, let’s start cracking on here, because Mean, we’ve got Inter champions elect all season from your presenter, hosting Salernitana. Inter at -600 and giving up two goals. I can’t see Inter beating anyone by three clear goals at the moment. And Salernitana, +1800. But a lot of people may be interested in getting a two-goal head start. The under or over three and a half. I’m not so sure that we see four goals either, and I’m not interested in the draw at +700. So where do we get any value in this?
Mina:
Okay. this is where it becomes really difficult, because I actually really struggle with it. Okay, so Inter haven’t scored in 403 minutes. They’ve had 54 shots on goal, and none of them have resulted in an actual goal. At the group stage of the Champions League, they produced more shots than any other team in Europe, and yet still only got eight goals out of all of those shots. So this is the side that’s really struggling to convert their chances. Meanwhile, at the back, I don’t think they have the same solidity. Now Salernitana, as we have discussed numerous times on this show, are the worst team in Serie A. But they do have a new coach yet again, and it is Davide Nicola, who comes with a lot of respect, a lot of prestige and a big name in Italy, when it comes to really saving relegation battlers.
Mina:
And now they went from a side that averaged around 11, 12 tackles a game, to now managing 23 against Milan, 19 against Bologna, really tough, really well organized. So for me, my bet is more on them doing something special as opposed to Inter, because right now, this team looks deathly exhausted. They are mentally weak at the moment as well. And the midfield is so… really, it’s bang average at the moment. Because Barella is not running, Brozović, I just feel is so overwhelmed because he’s been overused. So I don’t know what to expect from this Inter.
Flash:
It’s almost it’s not been broken, so it didn’t need to be fixed. And what they’ve done is they’ve run it into the ground, and not basically taken… if it was a car, we’ve not taken it in and we’ve given it a rest and a tune up, because some of these players have played nearly every minute of every single game. And now Mattie, they’re running on empty. But because they’re fighting on so many fronts, they’ve got to make sure that they get their best players on the pitch, because between the top and the middle sides, at the moment, there’s nothing to choose between any of them.
Mattie:
Yeah. So this is a really, really interesting fixture, because like Mina said, Inter haven’t scored in four games, which is unbelievable. Their team total is still at two and a half goals, which is kind of crazy to me. And I think the team total under it, +105 is probably going to be the best value on the board here. They’re only scoring over two and a half goals in 30% of home matches. Salernitana is only conceding over two and a half and 40%. So statistically, that’s probably going to be the best play on the board. The combined average for this game on total number of goals is over three. So, I think this total is… I’d lean to under, but I think it’s-
Flash:
Yeah. Lean the under.
Mattie:
Yeah. I mean, I think it’s going to be close. If Salernitana do score, maybe Inter find a way to turn on the jets and score three or four goals in this game. Who knows?
Flash:
But mate, see this is where these numbers… because the numbers that you are reading and obviously they are right, because they’re not fictional, but they are taken from when Inter was so dominant. Now we’re looking at if Salernitana score, is it not just all about Inter just scoring two and getting over the line?
Mattie:
The thing thing is I just don’t trust Salernitana. But I also don’t trust Inter at the moment either. They looked so tired in Coppa Italia against Milan this weekend, or whenever that was. Two days ago. They looked exhausted. I don’t know how they’re going to come out looking in this game. This is really not a game that I’m very interested in just because I don’t know if I can trust either of these sides in this match. So that’s why I would lean Inter not to score three goals in this game.
Mina:
What are the numbers for how much Salernitana scores in away matches? Would you say it’s about a one?
Mattie:
Yeah. So that’s at 60%, which is also really good value, but at the same time, to take… well, and also Inter is conceding in 62% of home matches as well. And they’re giving up 1.5 expected goals right now, the last five matches. So that is a good look on Salernitana to score as well. And that kind of counters my point of the under three and a half in this game. So this is… I mean, there’s just a lot of conflicting numbers for this game, and it’s really which side are you going to trust for this one?
Flash:
Jonathan Nelson says Inter to win and under three and a half. Okay. So what’s the price on that, Jonathan Nelson? Because just looking at this, and again, I wanted to steer clear. I just thought I don’t see four goals, Mina. Even if Salernitana score, I then only see Inter possibly winning 2-1.
Mina:
I mean, listen, look, I mean, I think Salernitana are sort of the perfect opponent when you are trying to get out of a funk. They have been facing quite strong teams, obviously. Inter… it is Liverpool. I mean, I know that there was a draw last weekend against Genoa, but it was Liverpool. It was Milan. It was Napoli, that they have been not really showing their best against. But the thing is that Angel Correa is back. There is Caicedo that they can bring off. Lautaro Martinez, he needs to shake off this monkey on his back about the fact that he’s not converting. So it’s a good opportunity to do that. The only thing that stops me from thinking they can really have a route here, is that Salernitana are really aggressive under this new coach.
Mina:
And they’re going to take you on man for man, try to exhaust you. So by the time you do reach the final third, you might just lose the ability to be precise. So I definitely think there has to be a goal from Inter. I just can’t believe they’ll go another match without a goal. It’s just about whether or not they can actually win it, or it’s a score draw.
Flash:
Yeah. And there’s the fool’s gold, Mattie. I don’t want to go too far over the top with this game, but the fool’s gold is actually Inter win to nil, or both teams to score, no. Because Salernitana, they’re dangerous from set pieces. Inter has been switching off their center halves. They are absolutely… they’ve either got nails in their feet, or they’re running in a sandpit with deep sea divers’ boots on.
Mattie:
Say that last part one more time, Flash? You cut out there. Sorry.
Flash:
Yeah. So basically let’s all have a little look at the official picks. I can go of me war in peace again. You know what I mean? Salernitana over [crosstalk 00:11:04]. Salernitana to score is at -105. Matt, what did you think? You thought that under team total of under two and a half of -105 was a way to go as well.
Mattie:
I really can’t decide if that’s a better play, or Salernitana +two. [crosstalk 00:11:19] because if they are able to score and Inter does score three goals, then you’re going to take a push.
Flash:
I know but [crosstalk 00:11:27] three?
Mattie:
I really don’t think they score three, but it could definitely happen. You know what I mean? So I think this is just a tough game that I’m going to stay away from.
Flash:
Okay. Jonathan Nelson, thank you. It’s +120 for Inter to win in under three and a half goals. Remember the goal line is set of three and a half. So you could be just like -51, 20, -125 of just under three and a half goals, and we do not see four in the game. But Mina’s the only one that’s gone with anything, and it’s basically Salernitana just to score. Okay. Moving on, because I like this game, because I can see it happening from many an angle. So game number two is? In your own time? It’s Cagliari versus Lazio. It’s Cagliari +300, which is a big price against a side who don’t get all their points on the road, Lazio, +100. Is it gift or is it a trap? The under or over two and a half goals though, looks very, very appealing.
Flash:
The over two and a half at -105, we could see Cagliari score two. We could see Lazio score three. So I definitely like the over two and half straightaway. Jumps off the page. The draw is at +250. Lazio to score twice in the game, Mattie? Are we expecting that at +100?
Mattie:
Yeah. So you’re going to hate me for this one, but yeah. Lazio on the road, I’ve done this all year. I will not play any game with her on the road. They’re scoring over one and a half in 43% of games on the road. They’re giving up over one and a half and 50%. I definitely like Cagliari to score in this game. On the same time, Cagliari has not kept one single clean sheet at home. I definitely like both teams to score for this game as well. That’s hitting in 75% of matches combined. The over two and a half is also hitting at 70%. So this is a play that I will… I don’t have an action on this game currently, but I’m probably going to take the over two and a half here. I do really like this. I like both teams to score. I like the over two and a half.
Mattie:
And like you said, I think Cagliari could score twice in this game. I think Lazio could score three times in this game. I don’t trust Lazio enough to win on the road, but that is a very, very appealing price right there. Plus 100.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean, you are getting Lazio at +100, meaning they have to score twice, or you’re getting Lazio at +100 to win the game. Then you just go nowhere near the money line and you just go with Lazio to score twice, because if Lazio are going to win this game, you’ve got to be thinking, they’re not winning it 1- 0. So they’ve got to score twice.
Mina:
Yeah. I think both teams can score twice, to be honest with you, I do think Cagliari can get a goal. And it’s interesting, because they’ve been magnificent. Obviously they held Napoli, they beat Atalanta. They are a side now to watch. And actually, if the season was to start from January, they’d be in Champions League places. The thing is Lazio, watching them play against Napoli, and this is straight after they played the Europa League and lost to Porto. So there is a level of mental and physical tiredness. They were superb in the first half. And even in the second half, when they weren’t managing as much control as Napoli started to fix themselves tactically, they still got a beautiful goal through Pedro. Sometimes I do think that they don’t make the most of all their chances, but they are starting to play much better football.
Mina:
They are starting to string so many chances, one and after another. They’re not as confusing as they were at the start of the season. And now they have a full week to have prepared for this match. And you know what Maurizio Sarri says; if he has time to train, he has time to create a winning team. So I do think Lazio will win this match probably, even though Cagliari is at home and really in tremendous form. I just think Sarri has just got that much more quality in his team. But rather than bet on that, I agree with you. I just think to go for Lazio to score twice would be my bet.
Flash:
Yeah. And I mean, listening… unless you was really brave, you could go to Lazio to win and both teams to score. Both teams to score and over. But when you’re looking, Matt, just at the over, because Lazio could win this 3-0. And Cagliari could win 3-0. It really is one of them where you just don’t need to complicate it, because basically I have Lazio score twice, but I’m definitely seeing over two and a half goals in the game with the way that these two sides set up.
Mattie:
Yeah. These teams are actually both graded almost identically to score twice this game. So in my opinion, I think the value’s just on the over two and a half, because it’s just as likely for Cagliari to score twice, as it is for Lazio. At least statistically. So that’s kind of how I feel about it.
Flash:
Yeah. Again, it’s just one of them games that you can just sit back and you’re going to… listen, there’s going to be no midfield battle. It’s going to be you attack, I attack, you attack, and love the way that Lazio just break and they go forward, because they just want to score goals. And Cagliari, they’re turning corners and they’re also starting to have a little bit of an ego about themselves and a feel-good factor. So let’s have a little look at the official pitch, because we’ve got seven games to go through, and I’ve gotten just straight over two and a half goals in the game, -105, but wouldn’t put anyone off of the Lazio +100 to score twice.
Flash:
Next game, obviously I went with two draws last week and got done with my second draw in the 87th minute with Bologna scoring. But this game is all about unders, and not splitting them. It’s Genoa vs Empoli. Genoa +150, Empoli +190. Look over in the draw, and it’s +245. I thought that would be like 210, 215, the under or over, over two and a half goals at -125 surely mean that that’s redundant. This is 0-0, 1-1. Can’t split them. Look at the draw.
Mina:
Yeah, that’s the thing. I mean, Genoa have been called the under blessing, the draw masters, because all they do is actually get a draw. And right now, Empoli are a similar side. I think they play very good football. And one thing that I would say that goes in Empoli favor is that Genoa do have a little bit of an emergency in defense. They’ve got quite a few players missing. But Genoa play a style of football that I also think under their new coach is quite exhausting. And they’re tough to break down. They’re so well-organized and so defensive that it doesn’t almost matter who is playing for them, because it’s the scheme that is overwhelmingly good on a defensive level. The quality is missing when it comes to scoring goals.
Mina:
But Empoli do give you so many chances, and I can’t figure out which team I like more. Do I trust this offense more, do I trust this defense more? So that’s why I’ve decided to go for a draw, because I think it’s such an attractive price. I never bet on a draw, because I always think it’s such a risky bet for… but for this one, for me it just totally stands out. I mean, Genoa always love to go for a draw, so why not bet on them?
Flash:
No. And the thing is the forgotten line. There’s always three eventualities. And with the draw, especially in a game like this, you’re going to be live. Remember, if you don’t want to go for the draw over 90 minutes, you can go to betus.com, go to the props, have a little look, come down to the 75-minute mark. So then if it’s a draw after 75 minutes, and then one of them gets a winner in the last 20, you’re a winner still. And at 245, I guess it’s going to be +230, just to be a draw after 75 minutes. Matt, your numbers, are they able to split these two sides?
Mattie:
Yeah. So actually the play that you just mentioned, I’ll give you a good number on that. Genoa actually score 55% of their goals in the last 15 minutes of the game. So that is not a bad bet at all. So I do like that, Flash. This is tough, because like Mina said, I tried to figure out who I thought was going to win this game. And my gut told me that Genoa wins this game. The numbers support Empoli just a little bit more, but you kind of just have to look at the raw data here. Genoa, five straight draws. Empoli ,two draws in their last five games, but four draws in their last five away matches. Genoa four draws in their last five home matches.
Mattie:
Head to head, they’ve drawn four times in 10 games. I’m taking a draw. I pretty much never play draw straight up. This is just kind of too hard to ignore. I may end up taking one of the teams to win the game. Draw, no bet, kind of just to be safe there. But I’m not sure. I really can’t figure out who I think is going to win this game. Empoli are scoring at least one goal on the road, and 77% of their matches. Genoa is only scoring over 0.5 goals and 46% at home. And they’re conceding 0.2goals more per game. The eye test tells me that Genoa probably do keep a clean sheet in this game, and that the under two and a half is a great play, which actually grades out at 68%, which is very high. But to me, this is just a tough game. I like both of these team totals under. I like the full game under. And I love the draw.
Flash:
I’ve just done it. Plus 160, if you’re wanting to parlay, if they allow you to parlay like a same game parlay of both teams not to score twice. That +145, +190 comes at a minimum of 2.6, which is +160.
Mattie:
Yeah, that’s a great look. I do like that.
Flash:
And then that brings in… obviously you could still double dip with a 1-1 draw, a 0-0 draw or +160 will get you 0.6 of a unit profit, if one of the teams wins 1-0.
Mattie:
Yeah, exactly. I agree. I think that is a great way to go about this game as well. You kind of just hit all the points I said and found some value out of that. I like that.
Mina:
Yeah. I would go for that too.
Flash:
I’ve said that much though, you two. What is it you are actually agreeing with?
Mattie:
A draw.
Flash:
Okay. We got the draw at +245, and draw past 245. And as you know, I am no stranger to just going for the draw because it is the forgotten market. And in this case, I do believe that it’s definitely a massive runner. And if you did want to get away from the Genoa scoring 55% of their goals in the last 20 minutes, then you remember you can do the draw at around +230 on the betus.com 75-minute mark.
Flash:
Okay, let’s move on. Surprised this game actually got mention. So let’s have a little look. It is Bologna vs Torino. Bologna killed me last week, late on with header at the back post from Arnautovic. It’s Bologna at +165, Torino at +175, tells you everything that this is another game that’s going to be very, very hard full tie, and picking a winner is going to be very, very risky. The under or over is two and a half, with the +100 being that someone’s going to maybe get a 2-1 late victory. Torino under one and a off, so they expect that basically they will not score twice, is at +160. Draw, +248. Lost my train of fault there. Mina, how do you split these two sides? Because Bologna and Torino, again, it looks a draw around the +240.
Mina:
Yeah, I would have to say I agree with you. I think that on this level, we know that Torino away from home are not really a side that you can trust or actively bet on. I thought they were pretty hideous over the weekend, but they were without Mandragora, who I think gives them a certain level of fluidity in their play and allows them to be stronger on an attacking sense. Now he’s back for this match. Belotti is there as well. So I feel they are definitely capable of goal against Bologna. Now Bologna have a COVID case, but they haven’t named who that player is. But Arnautovic hasn’t trained with them, so everyone is guessing it’s probably him. And he’s the guy that can really get you the goals.
Mina:
Ideally or usually, if I was to judge based solely on what I see from how these two play their games, I think Torino is much better than Bologna. But Torino away from home, sometimes their defensive lapses in concentration, how much they concentrate on their game rather than neutralizing the opponent. All these things for me are quite naïve on that level. And Bologna are very good at being opportunistic. So I can’t split them, frankly speaking. So if I was going to take a bet on this very, very risky game, I’m going to go for a draw.
Flash:
I love the way you’ve teed me up, Mina. Everyone knows that I’m quite ruthless at some stages, but Torino away are as bad as Mattie’s mustache. Mattie, before we go on and talk about this game, can you please just give us a little bit of background to why that mustache is making an appearance?
Mattie:
To why what’s making an appearance?
Flash:
Mustache? What do you call it? Do you call it a tache, or? What is this? You look like a slug fell on you.
Mattie:
Oh, this? Oh, the mustache?
Flash:
Mustache. Oh, you call it mustache. Sorry, it’s my accent.
Mattie:
What do you call it?
Mina:
Moustache.
Flash:
Moustache. Yeah.
Mattie:
I have more hair on my mustache than you do on your head, Flash, so…
Flash:
Now listen, sometimes it’s best to say nothing. I just wanted to know why you’ve come looking like 2020 Burt Reynolds.
Mattie:
Yeah, you know what?
Flash:
You’ve got one of them big cowboy buckles, belts as well?
Mattie:
No, I actually do not, but I do have a fantastic pair of cowboy boots that I look fantastic in. So I’ll send you a picture sometime.
Flash:
I had a pair of them in 1989.
Mattie:
What happened to them?
Flash:
My 501s. Anyway, listen, we do digress. We do digress. Bologna vs Torino. How and why is this on? Because I think with my intuition of the way that Mina just spoke about this game, it’s not her, it’s not me. It’s almost like Colonel Mustard has picked something out here.
Mattie:
I’d love the under two and a half in this game. This will be the highest rated under of the entire Serie A slate this week. It’s graded at 68%. As we know, Torino cannot score two goals on the road, for whatever reason it is. They did do it once against Sampdoria. That is the only time this season that they’ve done that on the road. And on the flip side, Bologna cannot score twice at home. They did that last game against Spezia. Can they do it twice in a row? I would say probably absolutely not. This is another game that we could play exactly like the last game we just talked about; under two and a half, draw, and both team totals under one and a half. I don’t think that can lose. I want to play this game exactly like the last one, but I do actually have a really good angle on this game, and it’s for corners.
Mattie:
Bologna have lost the corner battle in six of their last seven matches. On the flip side of that, Torino have won the corner battle in five of their last six matches. The spread on the corner kicks for this game is a pickle, just like the actual spread for this game as well. So I’m taking Torino to have more corners, then Bologna, if they had the same number, then we take a push, but I almost gave that out as a banker this week. That’s probably my favorite player on the entire board in Europe this week.
Flash:
Okay, and I could just let you know that my mathematical brain says that Bologna, Torino, neither side to score two goals is on a parley, same we mentioned earlier. It’s +130. Plus 130 for neither side to score twice. What price is the Torino pick them?
Mattie:
On the corners, I believe is -120.
Flash:
Nice.
Mattie:
You may have to pull that back up.
Flash:
Okay. It is another one of them games that won’t put you off to draw. And the draw is again around +240. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because this is a really dangerous game, unless you’re going to be diverse and go for the corners. It’s Torino corners. Pick them. Minus 120. If it ends 5-5, it is a free bet and you push and you get your money back and you come out unscathed.
Flash:
Moving on to the next game though. And this is the team that sort of got me back into some kind of sane situation with Serie A, because Verona visit Fiorentina. Fiorentina, big game midweek, failed to score, but the effort and the performance deserves so much more. It’s Fiorentina +100. Is that a gift? Is that a trap? It’s -115 that they score twice, but Verona, they’re +300 and -120 for double chance. I’m with the away side here in some sort of fashion, but the goals are under and over two and a half. Mina, I’ve got a soft spot for Verona recently, because I love the way that they’re just going forward.
Mina:
Recently? It seems like all the time. You absolutely love Verona. You always bet on them. It’s interesting because both these sides have a very attacking flare to their game. They’re not teams that really care so much about defending. They take lots of risks going forward, and sometimes leave their defenders totally vulnerable with several players to mark. Now it’s interesting because Verona do have several of their defensive markers back at the back. Casale is back, Günter is back, so there’s choices now. The unfortunate thing for Fiorentina is that they’re without Bonaventura, who got a red card and is suspended for this match, as well as Odriozola, who is so important for them on a tactical level. But I do think you’re starting to see the beauty of Arthur Cabral, and whether or not he can actually replace Vlahovic. Obviously he can’t, but he can definitely do a job.
Mina:
Piatek is good. We saw how well they played against Juventus. It was almost unbelievable that they lost that match. And they did so with their goal as opposed to Juventus’ brilliance. So we know that they know how to play football. We know that they’re very good at a home, but we know that Hellas Verona also love to score goals away from home as well. So for me, I’m going for both teams to score over two and a half, because to me that just looks the most obvious bet you would make on Serie A this whole weekend.
Flash:
Plus 100. I’ve gone exactly the same way, because I see Verona could score twice. I definitely don’t see no clean sheets, but Matt, if someone again wants to maybe look a little bit alternative here, am I seeing Fiorentina be a little bit spiteful, by the way, right across the pitch? They’re putting their foot in. There’s an aggression about them. And with these referees, they’re not shying getting the yellows out. I’m just wondering if there’s a card’s angle here.
Mattie:
This is an interesting spot. Fiorentina looked really good yesterday, so this kind of makes me hesitant to kind of play this game, because I really like both teams scoring over two and a half also. In fact, actually prior to yesterday’s game, Fiorentina had 14 of their last 15 games, I think against Italian competition, go over two and a half goals at home. So I like that straight up. It’s hitting in 92% of home matches, which is kind of crazy. They’re scoring over one and a half goals in 70% of home matches. Verona are scoring over one and a half in 54% of away matches. But on the flip side of this, you have Fiorentina only even up over one and a half and 40%. Verona has 65%. So I think Fiorentina probably do win this game. I really like both teams to score. I really like the over two and a half. I think that’s a safer play than both teams to score.
Flash:
But the over two and a half, and then both teams to score, you’re saying that one of these could score three?
Mina:
Yeah.
Mattie:
This is kind where I’m kind of in a pickle, because I watched Fiorentina play yesterday, and they looked so good that it’s almost like I don’t really want to play Verona in this match, even though they were playing so well.
Flash:
No, no, no. But do you think Verona score? I mean you know that Verona went 2-0 up a couple weeks ago.
Mina:
Got a hat-trick.
Mattie:
I do think they score, but I think just taking it over two and a half is a little bit safer, even though you’re losing some value on it. I do think both teams to score on over two and a half hits. I just don’t trust it enough to play yet.
Flash:
I tell you what, Barca man has come up with an absolute beauty here. Plus 700. Piatek anytime goal scorer. Simeone, anytime goal scorer. And by the way, Simeone, he is walking on air at the moment. He is just absolutely loving himself, Mina. And when you have a striker like that, you have just got to follow him.
Mina:
You know, actually he’s the top scoring Argentinian this season so far. I mean, he’s managed more now than Lautaro Martinez, than Lionel Messi, than anyone that you can think of right now. He’s the kind of guy who… he goes all for it and gets a hat-trick like he did last weekend, or he disappears for four matches. But he is now being watched by some of the big team, including by Atletico Madrid, who of course, he is the son of Cholo Simeone, so that should be an interesting one, if he makes that decision.
Flash:
Yeah. I’m sure there will be no brown envelopes changing hands if that happens. Oh my God. Yeah. But again, good luck to him because he’s actually doing the job that he’s paid to do. Let’s have a little look at the official piece, because I think this is a really entertaining game. I don’t think you go near the money line. Both teams to score over two and a half at +100. Don’t expect it to be +100 closer to kick off. Mattie, you’re in total agreement that that’s the way to go, yeah?
Mattie:
Yeah, I am. But I saw both of you guys already took this. So there’s no reason for all three of us to throw down on this one.
Flash:
Christopher Camatini says Simeone is a banker. I’m hoping you’re meaning that to score any time. Okay, let’s move on because it is time, regular spot on our show for the team from Turin. It is Juventus vs Spezia. Juve at -400. Giving up a goal and a half at -120, Spezia. Plus 1250. Spezia love to tip the apple cart up. Under, over three. If you think there’s going to be four goals, you’re going to get +110. The draw is massive here, at +500, but it’s only massive if it comes up, Mina. Juve – Spezia, what do you expect from your guys?
Mina:
Yeah, I expect this to be a… listen, Juventus are 13 games undefeated, so it’s going to be either a draw or win. Spezia is a team that they love to smash. And when we’re talking about Thiago Motta, they play an attacking type of football, they certainly try to go for goal. They’re not very cautious at all. But Allegri is completely the opposite of that. And so what I think he’ll do is he’ll shut down and basically just try to play a very opportunistic style of football. What I think is going to be interesting about this is who he decides to play upfront, because he keeps talking about Vlahovic being very tired. So, I don’t really fancy the other options, frankly speaking, but Dybala and Bernardeschi could be back for this match.
Mina:
So it is Spezia. They do leave a lot of space at the back. I mean, if Bologna can score twice against them, then my bet is that Juve can score twice against them too. So that’s probably what I’m going for. And I do think Juventus right now are feeling very confident and very sure of themselves.
Flash:
Yeah. I watched Spezia, and they love to attack down the sides. They try to keep away from the middle and they’re not blessed with big, big, strong athletes, because they don’t want to get up in that physical match up, Mattie, so they want to be down the sides. Now do Spezia score, because if they do, then maybe Juve to win an over two and half, or… you cannot go with Juve in under three and a half, because last week they score three, and then we end up with Juve winning, but it’s five goals.
Mattie:
I think, Juve, the last few weeks has just been going through a gauntlet. They have played so many matches. I keep hearing people talk about how many games Chelsea’s played. I think Juve have had a tougher schedule than anybody in the world right now.
Mina:
Thank you.
Mattie:
Yeah. I really do.
Flash:
Their squad’s not strong enough to handle it, and the quality is not their neighbor.
Mina:
And they’re missing [crosstalk 00:35:21] players. They’re missing nine.
Mattie:
Yeah. And I mean, they had what, three games in nine days? And then Fiorentina yesterday, when they played in Coppa Italia, Fiorentina had a full week off. So I actually took both teams to score in that game yesterday, thinking Fiorentina would go out there and get a quick one. I think I had the right idea, but obviously they didn’t win. So my thought process is very similar here. I think Spezia probably could get one on Juve, but I don’t really want to bet on it. I actually do think Juve winning under three and a half is the best play on the entire board. It’s -115 on BetUS. But if we’re going to take an actual play on this game, I would take the alternate line on BetUS, and I would take Spezia +two. It’s -160. I don’t think Juve win this game 3-0. I really don’t.
Mattie:
I think this is probably going… I think Spezia might even cover this +one and a half. I think this is probably going to be 2-1, or 2-0. I don’t really see much in between. The team total for Juve, it’s at two and a half. The over is +125. I don’t really like it, but at -155 on the under, that’s tough to play as well.
Flash:
It looks like a 2-0. I mean what price… I mean, I’ll tell you what Cristiano Rodriguez says; Juventus to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, is at +170. I think you just go with… I think Juve score twice, okay? So then you just go with Juve and over one and a half. Do you not, Mina?
Mina:
Yeah. That’s exactly what I’m going for. Because to me it’s like, they’re going to get two goals, then I don’t have to worry about what’s Spezia do.
Flash:
Yeah.
Mina:
The only thing I’ll say is that right now, the biggest problem that I’m having with these teams that are playing so many matches, is that a lot of them, like we’ve seen from Inter, they just look so tired. And Juve is probably due for a stinker, where they lay an egg and this game ends 0-0 for absolutely no reason.
Flash:
Do we think Moise Kean plays?
Mina:
Juventus are always producing stinkers. They don’t actually know how to play good football. They are one of the worst teams to honestly watch. I mean, the fans are outraged, even though they’re doing so well. But what they do have is individuals who make the difference. So it can just be a beautiful moment from Juan Cuadrado, obviously Vlahovic coming on and… and as Italian media will say, you give him chances, he scores three goals. Then you’ve got Morata, you’ve got Dybala playing in this match as well. So I think that because they have individuals that can make the difference, they can play really badly. They can play really exhausted, but you just need sort of 20 minutes, or even 10 minutes sometimes, for them to get the goal, or an own goal like they did against Fiorentina.
Flash:
Yeah. I always find, Mattie, that Juventus is one of them teams where the badge gets you through. It’s almost like if you… like Liverpool not playing well, but you know they’re going to pull something out at some stage of the game. Real Madrid, they’re like that. All of a sudden, I’m starting to believe that Barcelona are getting back like that, and Bayern Munich. So the badge gets you through. And also, remember, you could have Vlahovic coming on for the last 20 minutes here.
Mina:
Exactly.
Flash:
But if I was Vlahovic, playing against Spezia, who don’t keep clean sheets, I’d want to start the game. Give him an hour, get the game won, and then bring him off and get him a little bit rested up for the weeks ahead. Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because no one fancies the away side. And if you do, then the men in white coats will be knocking on your door. Juve to win and over one and a half goals is -250. I think that’s just one of those where you just want to make sure that you get the money in. I thought it might have been a little bit than that, to be honest. What is the-
Mattie:
Yeah, I haven’t pulled up here, actually.
Mina:
[crosstalk 00:38:59].Flash:
Sorry?
Mina:
There’s no value in that. Should we change it to Juventus in under three and a half? But then you worry about Vlahovic, right?
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, what about, do you fancy Juve win to nil?
Mina:
No.
Flash:
No. I think we stay with that. I think stay with that, and if we get 0.5 of a unit, or whatever we do, then we just go with that, because we can’t even go with the +125 on Juve scoring three times, because this looks a 2-0.
Mina:
Yeah.
Flash:
I mean, what price is 2-0? Because we could have half a unit on the 2-0. And I think that 2-0 was probably going to be like +550. Mattie, give me a price on that 2-0.
Mattie:
I’m looking for it. Exactly two goals is +300. Juve by two is +275. I think that’s probably the best play. Juve by two. Well, based on what you’re saying.
Flash:
Yeah.
Mattie:
Is that way… If even if it’s 3-1, you still win that one.
Flash:
Do you think Juve win the game by two clear goals, Mina?
Mattie:
Oh, wow. 2-0 is +500.
Flash:
Yeah. I thought it’d be +550. So I mean, do you fancy 2-0? I mean you’re 14 units down, do you want to swing the bat? If you hit it, it’s going for a home run. It’s five units in one go, or two and a half because we’ll have 0.5 of a unit on the 2-0.
Mina:
What would you go for?
Flash:
Sorry?
Mina:
What would you guys go for? If you’re swinging-
Flash:
I think, I would probably go for what’s Juve win 2-0.
Mattie:
I think Juve halftime/full-time is decent too. That’s -125.
Flash:
Yeah. Juve halftime/full-time, -125.
Mina:
I’ll go for that, because that’s something I definitely can get on board with.
Flash:
Okay. Minus 125. So we’re going to add that. Are we going to get rid of the -250, yeah?
Mina:
Yeah
Mattie:
Yeah. They they’ve been scoring in every single first half too, so not a bad look.
Flash:
Okay. No worries at all. So yeah, so basically, Mina’s selection is now going to be Juve, half time/full time at -125. I did the same thing a couple of weeks ago when the market moved so far, and it was no value to be had, and a blind man could have picked it out. But the halftime/full-time for Juve, at -125. And we all believe that Juve win the game by two clear goals, most likely 2-0.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s get to the last game because there wouldn’t be Serie A show if I didn’t come up with this selection. Napoli +110. Interesting. Milan, a massive +270. Milan, double chance at -130. But you go to Napoli, not many people and not many teams come away from there with much, but the draw at +245 under or over, the over being two and a half at -105. Mina, couldn’t split these two sides. Like you guys earlier, I’ve gone with a draw, not complicating it, at +245.
Mina:
Yeah, I was going to say, I would go for a draw, draw/no bet if it’s on Napoli. Napoli, I believe in a lot more when it comes to the big matches. The teams that worries me when they face them are your Cagliaris, your Spezias. For some reason, Napoli don’t have enough motivation to defeat these types of teams. But in all the big matches, like against Milan, against Juventus, they usually come up tops. So for me, looking at this match and thinking to myself that Milan has just played against Inter in the Coppa Italia, there is a little bit of exhaustion. They’re not precise at the moment. They don’t have Ibrahimović. I think if I’m going to go for a money line, I’m going to go for Napoli, but I see this as being a draw, because I think they’re both at the moment on equal terms.
Mina:
And I just don’t trust that Napoli sometimes… if the opponent is aggressive, I don’t necessarily trust them, because they’re such a yo-yo team, that even though they managed such amazing things last weekend and really showed us their teeth against Lazio, I still think that they’re not a side I can believe is consistent enough to get them another big win against Milan.
Flash:
Yeah. Let’s get these numbers up though, Mattie, because I’ve got this game down as Napoli 1, Milan, 1. Both teams get something out of it. They don’t really want the opposition to be taking the full free points, because where they are in the standings, it’s massive. Let’s just get out of here with parity and we’ll move on and take our chances in other games. Napoli, under one and a half is at -150. So the +120, they’ve got this down has been a 1-1 draw, haven’t they?
Mattie:
Yeah. And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but this is the third game I agree with. I think this is also a draw. And just like the first two games we talked about, I think that the under two and a half is a really good look for this game. I think this is probably going to end 1-1. The numbers for this game are really interesting, because Milan have not been shut out on the road. They’ve scored over one and a half goals in 80% of their away matches. Napoli have only been shut out in 15% at home. They’ve scored over one and half in 54%. But where it gets interesting is when we go to the defensive side of things.
Mattie:
Milan have conceded in 80% of away matches, but only given up over one and a half in 38%. On the flip side, Napoli have only conceded over one and a half in 8%, which is probably the lowest in Italy. That is a very, very low number. And I think there is a very, very small margin of error in this game. And it’s probably going to be one 1-0, somehow, some way, or it’s going to be 1-1. I don’t think either of these teams are very likely to score twice in this game.
Flash:
Plus 105 for the draw half-time, by the way. This is a first half where they got to be feeling each other out.
Mattie:
So I will say, Napoli in the first half, and also Milan in the first half, they are probably hitting the first half totals at a higher rate than any other team in Europe, or I’m sorry, than any other side in Italy right now. And what’s really interesting about this is actually both of these teams are scoring a goal in the first half in 65% of their matches, and they’re only conceding a goal in roughly… Let’s see, actually Napoli is only conceding 0.38 goals in the first half, and Milan is at 0.6. So I think this could be 1-0 half-time, and we get a late draw.
Flash:
Mattie, am I still right in thinking that Milan are one of the top three sides away from home this season, though?
Mina:
Yeah.
Mattie:
Oh, absolutely. Without a doubt.
Flash:
So, basically all these numbers for Napoli, all these numbers for Milan, they’ve not met each other in this situation. So, I mean, listen, happy to go draw half time +105. Happy to go draw full time at +245. What are you thinking?
Mina:
Draw full-time.
Flash:
Yeah. [crosstalk 00:45:54].
Mattie:
Last 26 meetings between these teams, 11 draws, 11 wins for Napoli, and four for Milan.
Flash:
Wow. [crosstalk 00:46:03].
Mattie:
[crosstalk 00:46:03].Mina:
[crosstalk 00:46:03] no bet for Napoli would not be that bad.Mattie:
I agree with that.
Flash:
I mean Christopher Camin is saying Milan is just so terrible without Zlatan. Plus why is Matt left out? Blah, blah, blah.
Mina:
They do have Kalulu at the back, because Romagnoli is injured. So it’s going to be Kalulu and Tomori. I mean, they’re good enough, but against Osimhen? I don’t know.
Flash:
Yeah. Again, I think it’s a 1-1 draw. I think it’s a 1-1 draw, but I think it’s a very, very tight and cagey first half. I mean, I wouldn’t put anyone off thinking about it, just as I’m thinking it’s coming out, is the most goals, second half, to be honest. Because I could see it being 0-0. You’re only looking for one. If not one, you’ve got the draw at +245 as well. So as the official pick did come up, it was a draw at +245. Now I’ll take you back to the start of the show. And when I do that, there’s a couple of games we haven’t covered. If you want us to find out why, then now is the time for your questions and answers.
Flash:
But before that, we’d like to invite you as America’s favorite sportsbook, to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers to the BetUS soccer channel. And ring the bell. Ring the bell means you’ll never miss any content again, which would be a massive bonus, because we’ve got golf, we’ve got tennis, got horse racing, and they’re all on top of our normal staple diet. And just to throw a little bit in as a dessert, we have the Champions League and the Europa League next week. Black Mamba saying, “Will Atlanta beat Roma?” For me, too many eventualities, can’t go near it.
Mina:
Yeah. Tolói is missing for Atalanta. Roma, I’m not that convinced by their attack. Not that I’m that convinced by Atlanta’s defense, but this is the only big match the Roma has won this season. So there is a capability of them to beat Atalanta yet again. But I honestly feel like every eventuality, it’s like Flash says is on the plate, so I don’t know where I would go with this.
Flash:
Mattie, a man in a white coat would come along if you said that this game was unders, and 0-0. And yet, both of these have been involved in unders and 0-0 when you don’t expect it.
Mattie:
I mean, for most of the season, the best play for both of these teams is both teams are scoring over two and a half for pretty much most of the season. Now Atlanta, especially when they’re missing Muriel or Zapata, the under two and a half is hitting at a very, very, very high rate. And they’re actually playing defense now. Roma sometimes decides to play defense also. So that’s why I didn’t go with this game. I looked at this game for a very, very long time. I really couldn’t find a good angle on it.
Flash:
Yeah. Foxy. Leave it, mate. Leave it. Roma – Atalanta, over three and a half goals. That’s last year, or that was pre-Christmas. Since then, it’s all gone just that little bit wonky. Let’s have a little look at all the official picks. And remember that one of them we’ve changed is for Mina. We have actually gone for Juve to win halftime/full-time at -125, because the market has totally moved against her, with Juve, and over 1.5 being -250. Rest of it, look at them draws. Genoa – Empoli, draw at +245. Napoli – Milan, draw at +245. Just off the top of my head, if you was to have a little one unit parlay of them to being draws, it would probably pay the best part of +1100. So that’s not bad. That’s not bad.
Flash:
A quick one there, Black Mamba. Sassuolo vs Veron. I don’t know who Veron is, because it was Fiorentina vs Veron. So, Mina, we’ll look forward to seeing you on Monday with Champions League. Mattie, have a great weekend. I believe you’re going to go and spend a few days away in a place where only dreams come true. So can you make a few wishes for a few winners for next Thursday’s Serie A show, please?
Mattie:
Yeah, absolutely. Flash, you have a good weekend too. I’m glad you’re feeling better. I know last week, you were-
Flash:
Yeah, today is my first day of feeling better. Thank you very much for asking. Oh, see that? Mina doesn’t even care. Mina’s like, “Come on, Flash. Just get on with it.” You know what I mean?
Mattie:
So, she got COVID, and then you got it.
Flash:
I didn’t get COVID.
Mattie:
I guess I’m next.
Flash:
No, I had flu.
Mina:
Yeah, basically it goes through.
Mattie:
Oh, man.
Mina:
Watch out, Mattie, watch out.
Mattie:
We’re just going down the line now.
Flash:
Everyone in the chat, really appreciate. If you want to put your thumbs up on the way out at the moment. 24 watching from… 47 watching, 24 thumbs up, which is just about 51.8%. Okay. Mina, have a great weekend. Mattie, see you soon, enjoy your excursions. Everyone in the chat, really appreciate everything you do. And we’ll see you all soon. Don’t forget, we’ve got La Liga and Bundesliga to complete this week’s soccer channel shows. So we’ll see you again soon. You take care.
