Serie A Picks Matchday 32 | Serie A Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

Also, if you’re on social media, it’s very, very important now. It’s another tool that we are giving you to make sure that you are up with the know. If the lineups are right, and we have an added bet, and it’s a late shout, then we will put it in there. And that will be at BetUS official. And at BetUS Soccer picks. So make sure that you follow both of them. Okay. Now, your experts today are the queen of Serie A, who gets everything right, apart from the end result. It is frightening the way that she grasps defeat from the jaws of victory. And her partner is the number one soccer capper on every level of the BetUS soccer teams. He is a prince of numbers, winners, stats, and he even throws in corners. Matty, it’s nice to see you looking wide awake. Mina, if you was a man, you’d be called unlucky Alf.

Mina:

I don’t know. I’m starting to… I’m just going to explain to you, if you are watching the show, that I had a discussion with Flash yesterday about my Serie A picks. And in one of them, you thought I was having a nervous breakdown [crosstalk 00:02:05].

Flash:

I thought I was going to set fire to myself, Mina. I was like that with a petrol. I was going to light a match and just say, “Leave it.”

Matty:

[inaudible 00:02:13]. And Flash is talking about-

Mina:

[inaudible 00:02:15] my confidence. I’ve become like Lukaku in front of goal. I don’t know what’s going on and even easy hits, now, have become too complicated for me.

Flash:

Yeah. But listen, you are going to bounce back this week because I’ve seen your picks and on paper, they look like they’re all going to win. All of them. So, make sure you follow Mina. Make sure you get yourselves in the chat. Then, if you’ve got any questions on stats then aim them at Matty. Anything on team news, aim them at Mina. Matty, bad week for you last week. You just didn’t lose or win anything.

Matty:

Yeah, it was pretty boring. I did end up, a couple leans that we had during the show, I ended up playing them and they didn’t turn out so great. So, it’s good that I only had two picks last week. But I do have four, for this show today. [crosstalk 00:03:02]. And you were saying how unlucky Mina was last week, but you were probably the unluckiest last week, with your Juventus halftime draw play, that you had. Super unlucky on that one.

Flash:

Yeah, thanks for that. I had forgot. I’d erased that from my memory. That’s like, “Oh my God.” Okay, lets have a little look at the records because they’re not great reading unless your name is Matty Ice, because I’m down at 14. Oh my God, that’s like… I’m going to have to steam right into this. Matty’s at 23. The big one for me though is always, it’s a team game. So, it’s the total at minus 11. I want that at naught prior to last week of the season, so we’re going to have to get stuck in.

Flash:

Remember, we’re going to have a Q and A prior to the best bets. You’ve got anything you want to say, then get yourselves in the chat. That’s your home. Let’s crack straight on then, because we’ve got six games for you. Six games. Let’s get that chat a hive of activity. First one is Inter versus Verona. Inter at minus 255, no thank you. But Inter to win by two at plus 105 may well be value. But Verona, at plus 750, I’m not so sure. The draw’s massive at 400, so maybe we’re looking at the goals here, Mina. And the line is under over three goals, at minus 105 for the over.

Mina:

This is going to be an interesting one because there’s a lot of psychological merriment that Inter would’ve gotten after beating Juventus. There’s been so much chat, at about how much this has done for their mental fortitude, to win the derby d’Italia. Because obviously, Inter had a very poor 2022. They’ve dropped so many points against opponents that you wouldn’t never imagine. The likes of Torino and Fiorentina. And they lost to Sassuolo. So, on that front, they’re looking pretty good right now. They feel confident again. But my fear is, of course, that they are going to be without Lautaro Martinez, who is their main striker. And so, I don’t know whether that’s going to do anything from them because they already have such trouble converting their chances.

Mina:

And the reason why they won against Juventus was of course, that penalty. Dodgy as it may be, we don’t know. Or maybe it was a fair one. But either way it was a penalty. So I’m not entirely sure. I think of Sassuolo, Raspadori’s been linked with Juventus. I don’t know if that’s going to have any bearing on his psychology at the moment. Is he going to want to prove himself? Are these thoughts going to be distracting for him? But meanwhile, I think that as we talk about Hellas Verona, we can also mention that this is a team that really go for it. Actually, there’s a part of me that thinks they’re going to get the two goals and Inter will get one.

Flash:

What? You think Verona are value at plus 750? I thought that everything you need to know about this game is Verona are minus 145 to score a goal. So, is it not both teams to score an over? Is it not over three at minus 105 is a free hit?

Mina:

I’m going for three-

Flash:

Mina?

Mina:

I do think it’s three goals. And for me, the only question marks… Hellas Verona have had so many problem with absences, but what they do have this time around is a full squad. Which is great for them. Man for man, we know that they’re physically robust. We know that they can take Inter on. And my feeling is that no matter how much psychological value they’ve taken out of Juventus, Inter will come [unstruck 00:06:24] against a side that is so physically perfect.

Mina:

But it is about taking Brozovic out of the game. I don’t know why, if for this… For me, I have a strong feeling about Verona. But there’s another reason. Is that away from home, they’re just not the team that you would expect them to be when they are at home. They seem to score so many more goals when it’s in front of their own fans but away from home, at San Siro, is the pressure going to be taken and is it going to be difficult for them?

Flash:

Yeah, I like Ivan’s look, Matty, because he’s going for over nine and a half corners. Inter could do that in the first 35, 40 minutes. But how do you see this game, with your numbers?

Matty:

You know what? I’m actually debating adding Verona, plus one and a half right now. Actually as a play. They’ve covered it in 13 straight games overall. Inter hasn’t covered this. They’ve actually covered it twice in their last 13 home games. I don’t really see Inter going out there and threatening to score three goals in this game. I really don’t think they get three goals. I think maybe they get two in this game, but I could also see Verona scoring too.

Matty:

I definitely see Verona scoring at least one in this game. Even Inter’s giving up 1.16 expected goals against per game, at home. But that number has gone up, the last 10 games at home. They’re not playing the same they were earlier in the season. I really do think Verona gets a goal. But that total at over under three, doesn’t really interest me at all-

Mina:

Yeah.

Matty:

… because I think one of these teams probably scores twice and the other one scores once. So I think the only values [crosstalk 00:07:58].

Flash:

So, both teams to score? Yeah, so let me just add [crosstalk 00:08:01].

Mina:

So you like my pick?

Matty:

I think-

Flash:

Yeah, that’s plus 120, you know?

Matty:

… both teams to score over two and a half is really the only way to play the total in this game.

Flash:

And it’s plus 120. I mean, Jonathan Nelson’s even gone in there. That’s not always a good thing, but he has turned around from mid-season, you know? At Christmas he was a complete Jonah, but now he is starting to pick up a few winners, because he’s on the same page as us.

Matty:

Yeah.

Flash:

Yeah, both teams to score an over. Looks like the way to go, and it’s plus 120. Look, I mean listen, I could see Inter winning 4-1. I just see both teams scoring an over. So, don’t complicate it. Let’s have a little look at the official picks of game number one of six, is both teams to score an over. Two and a half goals at plus 120.

Flash:

What was that? Oh, it was a gremlin. That was a gremlin. Okay, move on to game number two please. Because game number two is a game that’s got value wherever you look at it, if you’re on the visitors. It’s Cagliari versus Juve. Cagliari, massive plus 475. But Juve at minus 150, I’m going to put that down because that could be a parlay piece, as well.

Flash:

Juve, free hit is minus one, at plus 120 Juve to score twice is at minus 125. The list is endless, and the under over two and a half… The over two and a half, being at plus money. Mina, you know all about Juve. They was a little bit unlucky last week. I’m wondering if they go in at nil-nil, they come out completely different mindset, second half. But going into this game, for me, it’s a win or bust.

Mina:

Yeah. This is the whole point of it, right? Juventus really have to prove a point after that loss. They feel very unlucky. Especially because, I mean, I’m sure you watched this game but-

Flash:

Yeah.

Mina:

… we’re so used to such dull performances from Juventus, right? Always a little bit boring, always about being compact and caring more about the defensive side of the game. But at the derby d’Italia, they were all guns blazing, high pressing, desperate to win the ball back. Desperate to create chances for themselves. Had what, 20 shots? And they were the team that was totally in the zone. And Inter were the side that were defending with all that they could. Which I thought was interesting way to look at this.

Mina:

Now, Cagliari, they had a superb start to 2022. And then the wheels came off. And now it’s just loss after loss, and goals after goals that they are shipping. Incidentally, they haven’t actually also been a team to really rely on when they’re playing at home, which is usually their forte. In their own stadium, they’ve been unstoppable at times. But on this occasion, they’re a lot more vulnerable and I don’t really know what to expect from this team. But they have fallen so much that I don’t believe in this side at all.

Mina:

I always believe in Juventus scoring an early goal. Of course, that’s the thing that I followed and copied from you last week, because we both agreed that Juventus would score against Inter in the first half, or draw at most. And unfortunately, it didn’t go our way but I do trust them to win this at halftime and full-time. I think this will be Juventus’ time to exercise their beliefs that they are good enough. But they will be without Moratta and Locatelli. But that means that Zakaria will start in the middle, and I think he’s brilliant.

Flash:

Yeah. Juve at minus 150 though. But you’re getting plus 150 for half time, full time. I’m already liking Napoli. We’re going to obviously talk about them a little bit later, Matty. But I’m liking the parlay of Juve just winning, and Napoli in a parlay at plus 191, but let’s not get ahead of ourself. Juve win this game. How do we extract the value? Because I think they score twice. So, I’m interested in the minus 125. I think they win by one clear goal, so I’m happy with the plus 120.

Matty:

Yeah. I don’t really feel like there’s a whole lot of risk on Juve minus one. Especially at plus 120. I would be willing to play it if it was at the flip price of what Cagliari actually is, at minus 140, I would be okay playing it at that.

Matty:

I just don’t really feel like there’s a whole lot of risk. I don’t really expect Cagliari to score, but if they do, Juve could definitely score twice. So that doesn’t really threaten me very much. But they’re scoring 1.8 goals on the road, which is significantly more goals than they’re scoring at home. And they’re conceding 1.13. But on the flip side of that, Cagliari is barely expecting one goal per game.

Flash:

Yes.

Matty:

And they’re conceding 1.73. So, you can definitely expect Juve to score twice in this game, and that team total’s very tempting. But I just think there’s absolutely no risk with taking minus one in this game.

Flash:

No, let me tell you the numbers. I don’t see them correlate like this. Please, put them numbers back up because very rarely see this. The team, the home side are plus 120 not to score. Juve minus one, is plus 120. They correlate. It’s Cagliari nil, Juve two. Worst case scenario. Because if you look at Juve to score twice, it’s minus 125. So, if you think that Juve are going to score twice, do not go for the minus 125. Go for Juve minus one at plus 120, which is a massive 35, maybe 40 cents better. 45 cents better. So I would definitely go with Juve either win to nil, or Juve minus one.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at official picks because I think we all think that Juve are too strong. It is a win or bust. I think they come out and they flex their muscles.

Flash:

Juve halftime full time, plus 150 for Mina. Juve minus one for me, at minus one, plus 120. Juve minus one, plus 120 for Matty. And we have another one for Mina as well. So, flick that one up as well. There it is. Juve and over 1.5 at plus 100. So, basically you’re getting Juve to score twice at plus 100. Rather than the minus 125. So, it’s Juve all way and we will put it in as a possible first leg of a parlay at minus 150.

Flash:

Game number three, please. And there is a banker, by the way, at the end of the show so make sure you hang around for the best bets, which will be after the Q and A. Napoli versus Fiorentina. Napoli did brilliantly last week, went to Atalanta, won 3-1 at an absolute canter, by the way. Napoli are minus 130. Little bit suspicious, that price. Fiorentina, at plus 375. Fiorentina double chance is at plus 110, which is also a trap. Draw at plus 285. Under over set at two and a half, with the over at minus 115. Matty, what are your numbers saying here? Because a blind man says a home team win.

Matty:

Yeah, this is kind of complicated. Napoli is a team that I don’t trust at all. Really, I’m really trying to avoid this game completely, to be quite honest. I just don’t really trust either of these teams right now. But the over under, it’s pretty split. The over’s graded at 47%. That’s what it’s sitting at for these teams home and away respectively, this season so far. Both teams to score is at 54%. So, it kind of feels like a flip of a coin, if this game ends 1-1 or 2-1, or however the final score line may be, 2-0, I think it’s a little bit tricky.

Matty:

I do think there’s very good value on Napoli to score twice in this game. They’re expecting 2.3 goals for at home. They’re actually scoring 2.4. They’re hitting it in over 53% of their games. Again, it still feels like a flip of a coin. But if they win this game, they should score two goals. That’s how I feel about this. But I really don’t like anything on the board here, enough to actually take a swing on it.

Flash:

Okay. Fiorentina on the road, Mina, we’ve been saying it all season. Even when they had Serie A’s top first or second striker. Goal machine. And now, they haven’t got that. Do they go to Napoli and cause them problems? I think Napoli really bounce after their great performance last weekend in Atalanta.

Mina:

So, that means that you actually believe in their psychology and their ability to deal with the pressure?

Flash:

Yeah, I do. And in this game I do, because I’m also fading the side who can’t win away.

Mina:

Well, that is true. But in the Coppa Italia, Fiorentina scored five and Napoli only managed two. But Napoli are a very different side… I actually prefer them away from home, than I do at home, if I’m very honest with you. But what they do have is Osimhen back and Rrahmani at the back, as well. I think Anguissa’s the only suspension that they do have, otherwise they have a full squad.

Mina:

Now we know that with Osimhen, they average just over 2.5 points a game. So a lot. I mean, this is how much this man brings, and that’s not just goals and the ability to play as the wonderful forward that he is, but he is a leader at the top of the game that just never gives in. And that kind of ambition spreads to the rest of the team, so I think he’s so vital for the squad. Without him, they’re averaging around 1.5 points, which just goes to show you the impact that he’s made on Napoli.

Mina:

I agree with you about Fiorentina. Away from home, they have been shoddy. And that’s even when they did have Vlahovic, who was top scorer for them. But without him, they’re also a side, frankly speaking, that are really struggling to score more than one goal. I can possibly see them getting a goal. But to be honest with you, not against Napoli’s defense. But then Napoli have surrendered sometimes, to these opponents that you think they should dispose of really easily. The pressure is on. I don’t know whether they’ll be good and show the good side of them, or one that once again, we’ll have a disappointing performance from the likes of Lorenzo Insigne, and think, “Oh, it’s just Napoli. Whenever they’re supposed to win, they go ahead and disappoint us.” So, I didn’t want to make a pick in this game.

Flash:

Thanks for that negativity. That has really thrown me completely. But Napoli and Milan in a parlay is minus 150 and minus 130 at equals, plus 191. So, round it out to plus 190, I think that could possibly be a parlay that I’ll try and bring up to the board a little bit later. But I’m fancying Mina might not want any of it.

Flash:

Okay, official picks please. I’m on my own. Look, Napoli, money line minus 130. Come on now. Everyone in the chat’s with me. Danny Lopez, Napoli earned over 1.5. Astute Chaos, Nap and under. Nap used to be banker. Astute’s also saying Napoli are toothless. Make up your mind AC, make up your mind. Matty, what was you going to say, mate?

Matty:

Nothing. I was just laughing at you a little bit.

Flash:

Why?

Matty:

When you said you were the only one with this game.

Flash:

Well, I am.

Matty:

I know. I don’t know, it just made me laugh, Flash.

Flash:

I feel as if I’ve gone out in a blizzard without me coat on, and you two are sitting at the window in front of a nice, cozy fire. [crosstalk 00:18:35].

Matty:

You know what’s hilarious about that, is I live in Las Vegas and we don’t even have winter. It’s like 90 degrees right now.

Flash:

Yeah. Tell me about it. Tell me about it. It’s the rainy season here. But anyway, listen, it’s not going to rain on me [crosstalk 00:18:47].

Mina:

I’m here. And now all of a sudden, we have sun and I’m bathing in it.

Flash:

Well, listen, let’s hope that sun shines on all of our picks, Mina. If you move out way a bit, that sun will come straight across your face, onto me and onto Matty. Because looking at Matty, he looks like he’s been on holiday in a submarine. Okay-

Matty:

Oh, my goodness.

Flash:

Let’s move on. Okay, Venezia and Udinese next game. So, it’s Venezia versus Udinese. It’s Venezia plus 255. Udinese at plus 120 tells you it’s not a foregone conclusion, but the away side are obviously valued favorites. Draw is at plus 230. It’s close to the plus 200 for the draw. But the under over is set at two and a half. Fancy there could be goals in this. It’s up plus 105. Mina, Udinese going to the Venezia, right? Venezia, they score the odd goal. They certainly let goals in. And Udinese, man for man, throughout the squad are far stronger than the home side.

Mina:

Yeah, man for man, I do agree with you. And also, there is something that’s happened to Venezia this season. Really in the last few weeks, where they have just completely come apart. And Zanetti, their coach, is really is at a loss to how to fix all of this. Psychologically, this team already thinks it’s down. They are really fighting important teams.

Mina:

The thing with Udinese is that when they feel that they are superior and they want to show that off, they can be quite horrible to play against. They are bullies. We know that. Cioffi is trying to make a name for himself in Italian football. He’s a very ambitious coach, and has been given this brilliant chance to show himself off. Having said all of that, Udinese on the road are not a side that I believe in, because they’ve actually only won twice. They’ve really struggled when they haven’t been in front of their own fans, and in their own stadium.

Mina:

And this is a difficult stadium to go to, in Venice. And obviously, you have to get there by boat. It’s a very unusual experience. And they will be without Delofeu and Pereyra. Pereyra is so much of their creative brain, and so is Delofeu. So, I don’t know how they will cope with this. But my money is on the fact that Venezia are feeling so low at the moment, that they can’t bring themself up to produce a real fight against Udinese’s bullies.

Flash:

So, I mean, it’s either the away side or nothing. Maybe the draw. Or if you’re brave, Matty, you go-

Mina:

[inaudible 00:21:07].

Flash:

See, I mean, I’ve got Napoli and Fiorentina up here, for some reason. I just need to add Venezia and Udinese back up, please. Matty, the away side are far stronger. Venezia, weak. Mentally weak. So, the plus 120, is it a case of don’t complicate it?

Matty:

It’s complicated, because while Udinese is definitely, definitely the better team, and Venezia is just absolutely terrible, Udinese has only won one of their last 15 games on the road. That’s a pretty, pretty low number. So, to me-

Mina:

[inaudible 00:21:46].

Matty:

Yeah, that’s pretty bad. And so, then that makes me think, “Okay, well let me look at the team total.” Well, they haven’t covered that very many times during that same 14 game, 15 game stretch, either. Actually, they only covered it in the game that they actually won. So while I think that plus 120 is really good value and they should win this game, I almost feel like just using the draw no bet, which I know we kind of mentioned before the show. I actually looked it up, it’s minus 200.

Flash:

Wow.

Matty:

I do think that’s a good parlay piece. Even though it is minus 200.

Flash:

Okay.

Matty:

Because I don’t think that loses, because I don’t think Venezia can win a game. But on the flip side, I don’t know if I trust Udinese enough to take them to win outright.

Flash:

Okay, but… Is that draw no bet, you said, is minus 200?

Matty:

Correct. Yes.

Flash:

So we could put them in a three team parlay with Napoli and with Milan, and that will take the three team to plus 286. Remember, we’re 10 units down. We’ve got to make inroads. We did it in the Premier League last week. So it’s now the time of Serie A.

Flash:

I don’t know what to make of this. I thought that if, when you looked at the numbers, you was getting plus 145 for the home side, to plus 175 for the home side not to score. So that tells you they’re expecting a home goal. Udinese are favorites, by at least a dollar thirty-five. So, it looks like a 2-1, so that brings in the plus 105 as well, on the over two and a half goals. The over two and a half at plus 105, and the chat are like that, “Don’t talk to us about Venezia or Udinese. We’re not interested. Move on.” Let’s have a-

Matty:

I trust either to score twice. That’s my problem with this total. I don’t really trust either team to score twice. Even though Udinese did score three goals last time they played.

Flash:

Yeah.

Matty:

So I agree with Mina’s pick because I think that is the best value that you can get. And I think it’s worth taking a swing on. I just don’t know if I’m going to end up taking it this week, or not.

Flash:

Okay. Udinese money line at plus 120. Draw no bet is at minus 200 and we’d only use that in the parlay if we get the thumbs up from the board members of Milan, Napoli, and now Udinese, draw no bet and it pays plus 286.

Flash:

Let’s move on to this game because this game… I’m sore. I’m sore. So, I’m happy… I understand if you don’t want to go with me. It’s Torino versus Milan. Torino’s a tough, tough place to go. Milan, firing blanks, getting a bit nervous. And also, I’m seeing that they’re running out of energy. They seem lackluster. Torino plus 290. Milan at plus 105. Now this is a classic trap or gift, and it’s draw plus 240 with the under and over at two and a half, with the over being plus 115. Mina, I’ve got this at 1-1.

Mina:

Yeah. That’s exactly the scoreline that I have in my head, too. That’s exactly-

Flash:

That’s it, then. Everyone else, get on Milan. [crosstalk 00:24:41].

Mina:

I can see both of them conceding one goal each, and I can see both of them scoring one goal each. And I think to myself, Torino’s playing at home, which is what gives them an advantage of being able to score that goal. And Milan for me, they’re just the team that just delivers what? 55 shots, one goal in their last two games?

Flash:

Yeah.

Mina:

They’re are a team that’s having the same problems that Inter had. That Juventus have had. Just lots and lots of shots, but no end product. So I see this being exactly like you, 1-1. I can’t pick a winner.

Flash:

I was picking holes in their attitude last week as well, Mina, I saw Leal just dossing around. Rebic? Rebic’s confidence tank is on naught. He is like, can’t trap a bag of cement, making the wrong decisions. We’ve got Ibrahimovich, who came on. We’ve got Giroud, who’s looking his age. I’m just thinking that they’re going to limp… If they get anywhere near this title, even though they’re league leaders at the moment with just a few weeks to go, they are going to do it just by limping over the line.

Mina:

But you have to agree that Torino look the same as well. There was a point when you thought you could really see the beginning of this amazing project. Their players were really showing you. And then when Belotti came back and he looked so determined to prove that he was such a huge absence for them and they had that strong defense, but slowly that’s becoming… Really, they’ve become a team that I don’t worry about, or even believe in anymore. Even when they’re playing at home now. So-

Flash:

Yeah, creativity.

Mina:

Yeah, I can only see the one goal. I mean, they do have Pobega back on this, and they should have Brekalo available as well, from the beginning. And of course, Belotti up front. They have a good squad. It’s just that sometimes… And they do raise their game for the bigger matches, but I can’t see this being anything other than a draw.

Flash:

Okay. We’ve got it down as being a draw, Matty. What are your numbers saying? Get your crystal ball out, mate.

Matty:

Yeah, I’m going to completely argue pretty much everything you guys just said.

Mina:

Go for it.

Matty:

So, on the flip side, Torino has scored two goals in their last four games, and they have won two of their last 10 Serie A games, okay? Milan have only lost one of their last 15 Serie A games. That’s pretty good. I don’t really even feel like they’ve been firing too many blanks. I just feel like they haven’t really… Besides last week. I think last week was just a tough to game, and they should have scored in that game. I felt like they definitely should have won that game, but they didn’t. They definitely should have scored in the first half.

Matty:

But anyways, just throughout the numbers here, the over two and a half is actually graded at 70%. But I don’t like it, because there’s only been one goal in three of Milan’s last five games, and the other two went to zero to zero. So, I don’t like this total at all. But I do think Milan wins this game. I think Torino has been firing way more blanks than Milan has. Really it’s, actually to completely agree with what Mina said, they were a team that I really, really wanted to trust coming after the signing window and whatnot. And I really wanted to trust them. And they burned us a couple times and I just don’t think they’re very good at this stage, right now. They haven’t been playing well.

Matty:

Another play I really do like for this game, is something that I’ve been going to a little bit. I actually like Milan corners. The handicap for it is minus half, just like the spread. They’re getting over five and a half corner kicks in over 50% of their games. Torino’s only doing that in about 40%. On the flip side, corners against, it’s pretty even. But based off the last five games in the home and away splits this season, this should be a really easy corner win for Milan.

Flash:

Okay, I see two-

Matty:

As long as there’s no red card.

Flash:

Yeah, exactly. But even if there’s a red card, I mean, again, one of them’s just going to back off.

Matty:

Right.

Flash:

But I see both these sides not wanting to go behind in the game, which tells me it could well be a draw half time. Milan are just all about getting points. If they get one, listen, I don’t look them going and looking for number two, number three, number four. I think Torino then, are going to throw caution to the wind. Yeah, it looks like a 1-1 to me. But again, Milan probably being the more aggressive, so you’d think that they will be winning the corner account. Yes, Mina?

Mina:

I was going to say that if you looked through until even the end of February, was 1-1 against Udinese. It was only one-nil against Empoli, one-nil against Cagliary. They haven’t managed two goals for a really long time right now.

Flash:

Yeah.

Mina:

So, there is a problem there for Milan’s attack at the moment. They’re just doing enough to try to get them over the line, but it wasn’t enough against Bologna.

Flash:

No. And that’s why we’re getting plus 105, by the way. I’ve got to bring you back to that price. Okay, lets have a little look at the official picks because I think we’ve all got an opinion. I’ve gone with a draw at plus 240. I’ve got it down as a 1-1. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a nil-nil. Don’t expect the 2-2. I think if one of them scores two, then my draw is out of the window. Milan, minus 0.5 corners at minus 125 for Matty. And also Matty’s gone double dipping here. He’s also gone with… What have you gone for, Matty? Milan?

Matty:

Milan plus [crosstalk 00:29:52].

Flash:

Oh, you did. You took the money line. You took the gift or the trap. Okay, last game. Here we go. And two of us here, very, very shocked that this game was going to be included. It’s Bologna versus Sampdoria. Bologna plus 115. God knows what you’re getting from Bologna? Sampdoria at plus 255. This has been a season of just wipe your mouth and rush to next year. Over two and half at plus 105. That could be one of those end of seasons goals… Could see anything. The draw at plus 245. Matty, what do you see in this game? Because Sampdoria are like… Not the Sampdoria of last year. Bologna were a tough team to beat last year. This year seems to… The whole season’s passed these two by.

Matty:

Yeah. So this is actually… These are some crazy numbers. Because I feel like I’m going off, moreso of head to head stats than I am of the actual overall season statistics. Because I’m going to weigh the head to head record a little bit heavier, for this game.

Matty:

So, the over two and a half overall’s actually only graded at 47%. Both teams are score is graded at 37%, which is absolutely terrible. Those are very, very low grades. But what I do like about this game is the fact that the last 6, 7, 8. Eight times that they played, all the way back to December 2018, the game has gone over two and a half. And both teams-

Mina:

Yes.

Matty:

… have scored in seven of those eight fixtures. I actually think that bologna could have some momentum coming off of that win. Or, I’m sorry, off of that draw which was basically a win for them, against Milan. But I think they could score twice in this game. I think Sampdoria’s defense really is that bad.

Flash:

Oh yeah, it’s more than bad.

Mina:

Yeah.

Matty:

Yeah.

Mina:

I agree.

Matty:

Exactly.

Flash:

If they were playing against anyone else, Matty, I’d go with a home win.

Matty:

Yeah. So I don’t really… Bologna is my least favorite team, okay? I really don’t trust them. So I just can’t take them to win the game. I just believe that either of these teams really do have the capability to score twice. Bologna has done that in 50% of their home matches, surprisingly. And on the flip side of that, Sampdoria conceding over one and a half, right at the same number. So I do like that. I lean Bologna to win the game, I kind of lean their team total too. But I do like this over, and it is at plus 115 this week.

Flash:

Yeah. I think if you’re going to see goals… If we see over two and a half goals in this game, then I think Sampdoria are great value, because I cannot trust Bologna going forward, Mina.

Mina:

Well, I mean, they haven’t scored in six of the last eight matches. So, I just don’t know. And having said that, they have faced better defenses. And I do agree with you, that Sampdoria is really poor. I mean, they are poor.

Flash:

Yeah, yeah.

Mina:

And what I do like about them, is that I think they’re a weak team, in general. You can totally get under their skin and get into their minds. And they’re a team that play pretty. Or try to, anyway. And Bologna, I do think are a lot more, well, stronger.

Mina:

Now, the other thing is on a psychological level, Mihajlovic, their coach, this is the Bologna coach. Is back getting treatment for leukemia. And so, he’s been sending video messages to his squad. So, there’s a lot of emotional angst going on there and there is a desire to do him proud. Weirdly enough, the teams tend to really respond to him because this is the second time he’s going through this. And they seem to do better when he’s in hospital than almost out. I don’t know how to explain this. So, it’s a desire to prove themselves to him.

Mina:

But Sampdoria, I agree with you. The last six times, what? Over three goals? Easy. But six out of the last six have been won by Bologna. I don’t trust Sampdoria at all. Whatsoever. But I don’t know whether I’d go with unders in this game, because I don’t trust either attack. But I don’t trust either defense either.

Flash:

But when you get teams like that, though Mina, it’s one of those that there’s no respect. Because they both think that they can go and win the game. That’s why you can’t go anywhere near the money line. I wonder if anyone in the chat is actually interested in this game and thinking, “Yeah, they’re saying both teams to score and over.”

Matty:

I feel like they’ve said that in every game, Flash.

Flash:

Yeah. I know. Funny that you should say this, that used to be one of my bets. I used to do a nine team parlay of over one and a half goals in the game. And the amount of times it came up last season was astronomical. Yeah, it only paid plus 450, plus 550. But there was goals. This year, there’s been more clean sheets and more one-nils than I’ve seen for an awful long time, you know?

Matty:

Yeah. [crosstalk 00:34:40].

Flash:

Okay. Lets have a little look at the official picks of game number six. And it’s the over two and half at plus 105. He’s been sucked in there by the massive value on goals against two bad sides. Two wrongs make a right, so we’re looking for goals. Couldn’t go near who’s going to actually win. Now, you get your quick questions in, before we go for the official picks and our I’ll take you back to the beginning and remind you we are America’s favorite sports book. We’re your favorite sports book. Because 5,000 subscribers is our target and we’re just 500 short of that. Also ring the bell. Ring the bell means that you’ll never miss any content again, which is a bonus because we’ve got so much coming up.

Flash:

We’ve got Bundesliga tomorrow. We’ve got La Liga. We’ve also got Champions League, Europa League. And then, we’ll have a little bit of FA cup as well. And it is a world cup year. So make this the home of your football or soccer betting. And if you’re on social media, make sure you follow @BetUS_Official and @BetUS_Soccer. With the BetUS soccer is where you’ll get the late updates and late picks after the team news.

Flash:

Okay, quick question is Ivan saying Roma, minus one and a half. Asian handicap corners in the first half, Matty, at minus 130.

Matty:

In the first half? I’d have to look into that. On the first half corners, I don’t know about… Full game, absolutely. I know it’s probably like minus three and a half probably, for the full game, at least. The first half, yeah, that does sound pretty good off the top of my head. But I’d have to actually dig into those numbers before I give you an actual answer on that. If you shoot me a message, I’ll get back to you on that one.

Flash:

Yeah. Or just post it. No-

Matty:

Okay.

Flash:

… this is what we’re talking about.

Matty:

Okay. All right? Yeah. I’ll just post that one.

Flash:

No. Not you, Matty. Ivan-

Matty:

I’ll do some research.

Flash:

… you follow, on Twitter, @BetUS_Soccer. Matty, put your opinion on BetUS Soccer, then Ivan, you will find out. It’s simple. That’s what I’ve been saying all show. I mean I’ve only been on air for 40 minutes telling you this.

Matty:

Okay. Okay. Yeah, we’ll do that.

Flash:

Okay. And Mina, for you? Sassuolo versus at Atalanta?

Mina:

Ah, Atalanta are playing now. They managed to score an own goal in this game against RB Leipzig. Zapata is going to be back, so hopefully he will be able to play that game. I mentioned before, when I got my wires crossed about Raspadori, and whether or not that’s going to be something for him. I see this as being over two and a half goals, weirdly enough. Because I do believe in Sassuolo, and I believe Atalanta can get one. And I think both teams to score.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at all the official picks. The best bets part of the program, because we have a yellow there of Napoli. Money line at minus 130. We’ve got so much information there. Milan corners, minus 0.5 at minus 125 jumps out on the page.

Flash:

Juve. Free hit at plus 120 minus one. Juve halftime, full time at plus 150. We also like Juve to score twice. Juve and over one and a half goals at plus 100. Now, my board of directors, which is me, you and Matty, Mina. Do we like Napoli Milan parlay at plus 191? Or do we like Napoli, Milan and Udinese, draw no bet at plus 286?

Matty:

I like Napoli Udinese. Draw no bet.

Flash:

Napoli-

Matty:

I know that those odds aren’t going to be nearly as good, but I don’t know if… I don’t know. What Mina was saying about Osimhen makes me actually like Napoli a lot more this week, but I don’t know. I can see that game, definitely drawn.

Flash:

Mina? Napoli, Milan, Udinese. Draw, no bet. The Napoli Udinese is at around plus 150.

Mina:

Yeah, I would go for draw no bet.

Flash:

And with Napoli or with Milan? I’m not having Milan. I’m on the draw. What am I talking about, Milan?

Mina:

No, no. Milan.

Flash:

Inter. I’m talking about Inter, ain’t I?

Mina:

Sorry. Napoli.

Flash:

Hang on. Napoli. Yeah, Napoli. Sorry. What am I talking about Milan for? Oh my God. I’m not even on Milan. I’m against Milan. I’m on the draw. [crosstalk 00:38:56].

Flash:

There’s no parlay. There’s there’s no parlay. There’s no parlay. Sorry to everyone, I’ve gone absolutely bonkers there. I was trying to talk myself in going against one of my own bets. That can’t be right. It’s Juve. No, no, no. It’s Juve and Napoli. Now, why am I even writing Milan down? That’s such a bad omen. Okay.

Mina:

I don’t know whether Napoli can win this, so I’m not betting on that.

Matty:

That’s a good omen for me, Flash.

Flash:

Okay. So, we go Juve and Udinese, draw no bet. How do we like that?

Mina:

Yes.

Matty:

Yeah.

Flash:

Yes?

Matty:

Yes.

Flash:

We like that, Matty?

Matty:

Yes. Yes.

Flash:

Okay. So, that pays. Okay, 150… That’s 1.66. So that means 83, 249. That’s plus 149. You might get plus 150. There’s your parlay. Juve to win the game, and Udinese draw no bet. Okay, it comes out around plus 150. So enjoy.

Flash:

For everyone in the chat, make sure you join us for La Liga and Bundesliga. Mina, the sun is shining on your picks, okay? This week you’re going to have a great week. Yes, exactly. I’m doing that every week. I’m only doing that when you are sending them to me, not once they’re getting ready to play.

Flash:

Matty, good luck with yours. And you are our number one capper. Keep up the great work, mate. From everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners and Serie A is 10 units down. Next week, let’s see how much we’ve eaten into that. You take care.