Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, exactly. Now, but it really is on holiday, aren’t they? It’s going to be interesting here to see who makes top four. I wanted to slap Milan a little bit when they lost to Spezia, really throwing our plans out of the window because we didn’t know how that was going to happen. They need to make top four, not taking it as seriously as possible, perhaps too many eggs in one basket and that being the Champions League, which they didn’t exactly perform in. So, I don’t know where to go with Milan because they’ve lost quite a few players in the sense that Bennacer is out and their midfield’s already light, so wonder what’s going to happen there.
Meanwhile, Inter just seem to be in fine form, Napoli are definitely celebrating still. Fiorentina go through streaks all the time where they either they’re fabulous or they win one in [inaudible 00:01:58]. So, it is very difficult this year around honestly with Serie A, it’s become so unpredictable because you’ll see wins that you never expected to see like Spezia. And then, you’ll see losses that you wouldn’t expect to see either. I mean Lazio, what is going on at Lazio? Can someone please explain it to me because Lecce, really, you couldn’t manage to defeat Lecce? It is what it is.
Flash:
We said Lecce did well a couple of weeks ago in defeat away at Juve. By the way, please give me a little bit of feedback in the chat because obviously the +990 parlay that we put together last week, five ticks go and cash. Talking of cashing, all aboard the Monza train, it’s leaving the station again Nick.
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, I think as long as they keep winning, I’m a happy, happy man and they just keep doing it for me so it’s been back to back great weeks here on the show hopefully, we can continue that again today. And Lazio, Mina, I don’t know if you recall, it was probably like three or four shows ago. I said Lazio’s going to fall out of the top four, they’re going to shoot themselves in the foot. Little less likely now that Milan lost an unexpected game so it gives a little bit of a cushion, but I’m still thinking Lazio is going to screw themselves up here.
Flash:
Your actual words were, and this is the other thing you got to be careful because I do have an unbelievably photographic memory, whether it and also audio. You said that Lazio had overachieved, basically I think it was there to achieve 17 points more than their performances deserved. So, if you do go with Nick and you do listen to him, then you would definitely be fading Lazio. Let’s have a look at the records by the way. Mine says 23 but I think everyone will agree that that should be 10 less after I gave you the parlay last week. But I’m quite happy that it’s a team game so it’s not a problem. But Nick at 4.23, sorry?
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, Nick’s been doing well, is it all the Monza chat?
Flash:
He just does the opposite of what I do.
Mina Rsouki:
I’m mean, well done.
Flash:
Probably I did want to say that, see I’m listening. I’m one of these people if I’m going down, I’m not dragging anyone with me unlike somebody else in our team that if they’re going down-
Mina Rsouki:
I made some money this week, Flash. I made some money this week.
Flash:
Well done you. Okay, let’s have a little look. Well, we’ll have to start now or otherwise we won’t be finished. We’ll be finished after the games have played because we’re going to cover seven games now so get yourselves in the chat. Fernando, Flash, thanks for the four-leg parlay. Well, it was five, wasn’t it? He missed one.
Mina Rsouki:
You can take four, which you talked about in case you-
Flash:
Yeah, all three. Yeah, exactly. But we got them all anyway so it don’t matter. It’s like having a three-legged table though, you always want four on there. Okay, first game up please. Sassuolo versus Monza, big one here. If you’re watching any of our other shows, it’s the Friday night game, you do not oppose the home side, very rarely does the home side get beaten. Sassuolo +125 and that’s for the reason. Monza +210. I think it’s a coin flip to say who’s in better form here because neither of them are playing badly. The draw is at +260 and I believe that is a runner. The over two and half is a -135. Mina, Sassuolo-Monza, do you think we have goals here? Do you think the over two and half is deserving to be -135?
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, actually I think so because I think both teams can definitely score. Sassuolo are not always very good defensively because they like to take so many risks when they do go forward. Monza has spectacular midfield and so does Sassuolo. They’re both teams that like to really own play and try to dominate the game as much as possible. The one thing I would say is that Sassuolo without Lauriente who’s been one of their best attackers, so he’s going to be a big loss, he’s undergone surgery so he’s going to be out for this match. So, you’re looking at a frontline of Berardi, Pinamonti and Bajrami so quite a lot of creativity in that.
Again, Fratessi is always a midfielder that can do so much damage so it’s about controlling play. The difference maker is obviously why I think Lauriente is so important is he makes things vertical and he gets the goal. Honestly, I can’t split these two sides, I think they’re both brilliant. I think both of them will score a goal. I just don’t know where the winner is because they’re both almost at the same level. But Monza’s done better here than we all expected. In fact, had Monza not started with Stroppa as their coach, I wonder if they could have pushed top four this season.
Flash:
Four?
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, because think about it-
Flash:
You always have to go for it, I thought you was going to say conference league.
Mina Rsouki:
No, because think about it, they’re what, in the eighth position? And if they had Palladino, their coach now from the start rather than having all those losses under the coach they fired, how do you know where they would’ve ended up? I mean, they beat Napoli, they’ve taken four points of Inter, they’ve beaten Juventus twice. It’s very impressive from Monza.
Flash:
Yeah, and considering the squad size as well. Nick, Monza here away at Sassuolo on a Friday night, how big is that number of draw at +260?
Nick Bormann:
Seems like a very likely scenario and I don’t think any of you guys are going to be surprised at what I’m going to suggest in this match because it’s Monza train and I just keep riding it and they just keep cashing and you know what, what’s crazy to me is they continue to be put in the underdog role and so all we need is a draw on this match ’cause I’m going to play the Asian handicap line again here, plus a quarter of a goal so at least cash half if they do draw, of course we’ll win if they win. Over their last 11 matches dating back to beginning of March, they have just one loss. Mina hit a couple teams there, they played and beat, they got wins versus Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina plus a draw with Roma. During that two-month run they are second in Serie A with 20 points, only Fiorentina have more, 21.
Monza conceded two goals to Lazio, that was their only loss during the stretch and then they did two goals to Fiorentina, which they won three to two. But otherwise, they’ve played great defense, they’ve held their opponents on one goal or less in nine of those 11 matches. And I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, it’s like a tale of two seasons defensively allowing 1.1 expected goals per 90 minutes during this stretch compared to 1.54 in their first 24 matches of the season. Obviously, a big reason why they’re able to get results out of everything right now. Sassuolo just two wins in their last eight matches, which includes losses to Verona and Salernitana plus draws versus Torino and Bologna. They’re one quality win though result was a win though versus Juventus so that was a good one.
But they’ve been pretty solid at home this year, eight wins, four draws, five losses but their expected goal numbers really aren’t that impressive, basically dead even, which at home you’d think you’d be somewhere in the positive if you’re one of the better clubs in the league. But with three matches remaining, neither team really have anything to play for here. However, I just see Monza continue to do what they’re doing. They have such a good thing going right now and I think obviously they want to keep it going, get some momentum going into next year. Like Mina said, bet them now for top four next season, they’re going to be right there, right? Plus a quarter of a goal for me in this match. I’m getting a little overzealous but I’m going to stick with the Monza train and ride it one more time.
Flash:
Yeah, I was just hoping you can split them to be honest, I don’t expect Sassuolo to get beat. Maybe the best if you’re just really wanting to put a parlay piece together, then maybe you go in Monza double chance -145. I’ll just pencil it in and just see if the numbers work out later on as we get further down. Let’s have a little look at the official pick because I know there’s only going to be one of us that are even going to have a pick in this and it is Monza, plus a quarter at -110. So, it just means that if it is a draw then Nick does pick up half of winnings. Okay? And the other half is a push.
Move on to game number two please. Dangerous game this. Milan versus Sampdoria. Both numbers are crazy because Milan in -525, we don’t know what type of side they’re going to have. They didn’t hardly have a shot on goal in 180 minutes against Inter. Sampdoria +1500. If ever Milan could maybe cherry-pick an opponent, this is probably it. The draw is at +600. But Nick, I’m sure how I get the value here, I’ve got to go like in-game parlay of maybe Milan and over or Milan and under, but going over who’s scoring the goals?
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, well there’s no value in the line as it currently sits. I’m not laying two goals on the line and I’m not laying -500 for sure. So, what I think you could do here is look at the under, you can grab the under three and a half and pair that with a Milan win and get a decent number on it, pretty much -110. Now that Milan is eliminated from the Champions League, we know what they got to do. They’re four points back right now, Lazio they need to win. They do not want to get called over to the side of field and apologize again this week after that Spezia loss so I expect a better performance. Like you said Flash, probably no better team or definitely no better team to face than the worst team in league, Sampdoria when they need a win.
And listen, the Spezia match was always going to be a tough spot, sandwiched between the two Champions League games and obviously they were trying to get all their eggs in that basket, it hurt them. They thought they could get something out of Spezia match, they didn’t so they’re in a tough spot. But I don’t think any of us would argue that Milan shouldn’t win this game, I’m just not comfortable laying the bigger number. The question is now, are there any goals in here and I don’t think there will be. I mean, Milan, they were playing great up until they’re now three losses. And it was really on the heels of their defense. They were on a run of nine straight matches without a loss until that leg one loss to Inter and during that time they were not letting opponents get on the scoreboard.
Their defense was great, they allowed two goals in back to back matches for the first time in a long time. Otherwise, they had an eight-match streak where they were allowing one goal or fewer and only four goals I believe it was during that whole stretch. So, they were on a run of eight matches or excuse me, under two and a half goals in 11 straight matches in all competitions. Of course, that ended or actually it didn’t end I’m sorry, with the Inter matches, the difference is they haven’t been scoring so it was eight straight unders while they were playing well defensively and now it’s still 11 straight unders because they didn’t get on the scoresheet at all. But I think they’re going to do that here. I think they’ll find a way to win this game, they need to. But I don’t see Sampdoria getting much action and I don’t see Milan scoring four.
Flash:
No, there’s the bet. There is the bet. Sampdoria, naught, it’s either nil-nil or Milan wins to nil. Sampdoria don’t score for me, -155 not to score. I think that’s probably the first leg of a parlay piece. Mina?
Mina Rsouki:
Oh God, I don’t know where to go with Milan. I mean, it’s between heaven and hell whenever we discuss them, we don’t know whether they’re in heaven or whether they’re going to show us hell.
Flash:
They’ll find a way though, wouldn’t they? They’ll find a way in this game. I think Milan wins to nil. Nick, can you have a little look, see what prize that is why Mina tries to find something to talk about with Milan?
Nick Bormann:
Yep, in one second-
Mina Rsouki:
I say this only because Bennacer is missing, so we’re talking about a midfield that has already lost [inaudible 00:13:37], which is why they’ve been defensively suspect this season. So, they’ve relied on Krunic, they’ve only started to pick up points and how the solid defense when they played with three in midfield, and that includes Krunic, Tonali and Bennacer. Tonali is dead, he’s exhausted, he has to do so much running. And Krunic is basically was rushed back from injury and Bennacer’s out now for the rest of the season. So, you’re going to stick in Pobega, he’s probably won’t do that, he’ll probably go on the attack, which is fine because they need to. There’s no Giroud, so who’s scoring the goals? Origi, Rebic, De Ketelaere? Because I mean, they’ve all been pretty awful.
Flash:
Diaz?
Mina Rsouki:
Diaz, yeah. The thing is with Leao is again he was rushed back so it depends because we’re not seeing the real Leao at the moment, he’s at 60%. So, of course he and Theo Hernandez can always make the difference because they’re special players and I think they’ll find themselves over the line because Sampdoria is like they’ve relegated, right? But they are a combative sign and Quagliarella has written this whole emotional piece on Instagram about how sad he is that he is going to be, that Sampdoria got demoted. But I mean, Milan should win this, right? I’m just going for under three -115 for me, that’s looking pretty tasty to be honest.
Flash:
I just wrote that, I just wrote that because I do believe Sampdoria don’t score. I think Milan may be win to nil but under three, I don’t see four goals because for Milan it’s all about the W and remember the gas tank’s not going to be anywhere near three quarters. So, I think Milan do enough to get the game, they control the game but both teams have scored no, what prize was it?
Nick Bormann:
-120 is the win and nil.
Flash:
Okay. Well, the win to nil I don’t see them winning three-nil, four-nil. So, I would say that Milan, I just probably do-
Mina Rsouki:
Under three is just better.
Flash:
Under three at -115. Okay, let’s have a look at the official pick. Milan and under three and a half at -110, it just gives you that extra half a goal in Milan. If we’re not seeing Sampdoria score, then it’s four. The problem is nil-nil, that’s going to be your problem. If they go one-nil up, enjoy because then what they’ll do is they move the goal live to maybe three and a half, you just bet under three and a half. It might be -120 but you have the insurance because there’s no way it’s going to be four.
Move on to game number three please. It’s Torino versus Fiorentina. Straight away, forget the money line, you ain’t picking the winner here. It’s under over two with the over at -145 so really we’re looking at sort of over 2.25. The draw is at +225. If you are thinking about going to home side it’s +125, the away side +225. Mina, I can’t split these, I think it’s a one-one draw. It could be one-nil either way. I think the under two at +125 is a real runner.
Mina Rsouki:
Do you think so? Well, they’ve been under two and a half goals in seven of Torino’s last eight games so definitely it is a runner because we know when these two sides, well when anyone faces Torino they’re probably not going to score more than two goals maximum in the game. This is an odd one because they evenly matched even in history, sometimes it’s Fiorentina and sometimes it’s Torino. But what I’m worried about is that they’ve got a very important match tonight obviously it against Basel, they have to overturn a loss but it’s away from home so it’s going to be a little bit exhausting. Fiorentina are a streaky team, right, they’re either very good or they take their time to try to find their mechanisms that well, their patterns of play again let’s say to try to score the goals.
To me, I think this is a one-one if I’m honest with you, that’s why I’m reluctant to go for the under two because I do think both of them will probably get a goal in this. Jovic should start. We’re looking at Sanabria and Vlasic for Torino. I think they’ve been very good at home, I definitely see them getting a goal in this just because of the kind of mistakes that Fiorentina can make. But I agree with you elsewhere I don’t think this is going to be a high scoring game. If you can find under two and a half, I would take that one.
Flash:
You will be able to find it and it’ll be like -125.
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, well then I think, do you think? I think it’ll be-
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, probably.
Mina Rsouki:
-165. No?
Flash:
No, no because under is already a +125.
Mina Rsouki:
Oh, you’re right under two is 125, yeah, I get that, yeah.
Flash:
-125. Yeah, and as you’re saying Sanabria needs to have goal score +170. I think that if Torino go one-nil up in this game, I think there’s a live bet to be had that there’s no more goals.
Mina Rsouki:
Do you think so? You don’t think Fiorentina-
Flash:
I’m just scared of it. I think if Fiorentina go one-nil up, I think it’s a one-one draw.
Mina Rsouki:
You know where I would go with this, I would go for corners. Honestly this is going to be, I think that this could be interesting. I think they were both average quite a lot of corners. I think this could be an over nine or at least over four and a half in the first half.
Flash:
Okay. I’m just looking now to see, so who would you think would win the corner battle? I’m just having a little look here.
Mina Rsouki:
It’s quite evenly matched to be honest with you.
Flash:
They are. Well, Fiorentina to have five corners in the game is +100.
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, I’d take that I mean, in any day, I would take that in a heartbeat because they average six corners. And Torino are aggressive and combative when they try to so a lot of the times they do get corners themselves but they also concede quite a few corners as well.
Flash:
Okay. Nick, split these two for me please. Torino-Fiorentina, I’m happy to go with the draw at +225.
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, I can’t really. If it wasn’t for tonight’s Europa Conference League match, I would take Euro Conference League plus a quarter of a goal because anytime I can’t split them I like to go get the plus quarter of a goal. I know the draw’s a better return but at least I can get two results on it. But because of that match, I’m not quite sure but I don’t see goals. I’m actually seeing under two and a half at -150 so it is pretty high. The two and a quarter though, you know I love my quarters, that you can get for -110, -115. So, if we can still cash something on a one-one, I’ve said it before I think my weekly update I’ll call it on Torino, they’ve still yet to score more than two goals in any Serie A match this year. So, that’s still going and their defense has been rock solid all year, they just don’t allow a lot.
And actually, if you look them at home, they allow just 1.07 expect the goals per 90 minutes. They allowed four to Napoli, obviously a big crooked number there, and then only two other times did they allow more than one goal, it was to add Atalanta and then Cremonese of all teams. But otherwise, 14 of 17 home matches one goal or less, which includes Lazio, Juve, Milan and Roma, they’ve yet to face Inter. So, they’ve proven they can hold anybody and Fiorentina have a pretty good under record this year as well, 21 of 35 matches overall have finished under the total. Over their last 14 matches, Fiorentina, they’ve kept 12 of their opponents to one goal or fewer so they’re playing solid defense as well. So, I don’t see a lot, I can’t split them, I’ll go under 2.25.
Flash:
Yeah, and with the under two at +125 but for me it’s a draw. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks of game number three before we get to the big one. That’s not as big as it was. Fiorentina over four and a half corners at +100 and for me it’s a draw at +2.25 looking at maybe nil-nil, one-one. And I just got Danny … Sorry?
Mina Rsouki:
I just remembered this, Fiorentina are playing midweek next week because they’ve got the Coppa Italia finals so they’re going to be resting a lot of players against Torino. So, just one thing-
Flash:
You’re a bit too late doing your homework during the show though Mina, you know what I mean?
Mina Rsouki:
No, it’s just now, [inaudible 00:21:39] to mention it in when I was speaking, I did think about it when I was doing my-
Flash:
Everybody I think there’s been Italian games on this week, you know what I mean? A couple of Italian sides in the semi-final of Champions League-
Mina Rsouki:
[inaudible 00:21:52].
Flash:
Anyway, draw +2.25 for Fiorentina.
Mina Rsouki:
But just to let you know, yeah, they are going to rest players. I still expect them to do a show because they always do.
Flash:
Exactly. You only have five corners +100. And just I was saying Danny’s already let me know, Torino 13, three and one in the corner matchup this season. Just a little bit careful ’cause there’s only a couple of weeks to go but if we think that Fiorentina are going to get five and Torino normally win, then maybe we can go over the nine and a half as well because it could be a five all draw and everyone’s a winner. Don’t go with Torino on the handicap. Move on. Gigantic game three months ago now, whoa Napoli +180 underdogs at home to Inter +160. Inter, what is their mindset like now they’ve got to the holy growl of finals and now they go to Napoli still needing points looking over their shoulder.
The draw is at +230, the under two and a half is at -115. Napoli I suppose they’re going to be like +190 not to score in this game. Nick, go first. I’ve got the draw. I know that you’ve not got a lot to say on this game and I know that we have got other games where you have got a lot to say as the first few games proved so I’ve gone with the draw.
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, I can’t split them Flash, I’m fine with the draw here. I just don’t want to get involved too much in the Napoli matches. I just don’t know what they’re going to do and Inter let down spot but they still need to win so you’d think that is where you’d want to go with your money and maybe there’s just not a lot of goals here if anything, but I like your draw, I don’t have much more to add on unfortunately on this one.
Flash:
No, I’m not that, I love that because sometimes no bet is the best bet, don’t talk about things. Listen, I’m the world’s worst. I say things about games, give an opinion and then when the actual pick pops up, I haven’t got one. So, really I think I’ve got to start making that a little rule now. If you’ve got nothing to say, be quiet and just sit away or see this is the other one, sometimes the reason you’re not having a bet is what actually everyone wants to hear. Mina, Napoli-Inter, any good to you?
Mina Rsouki:
Well again, Inter are playing the Coppa Italia final next week against Fiorentina. They’ve obviously just come off a huge semi-final win against Milan. They do want to keep momentum going because they do need to make sure they make top four. I mean, it’s likely that they will, they are three points behind Juventus, obviously we still don’t know what’s going to happen with their point penalty. They should have secured top four but they’ll still want to do well in that. Now against Napoli, last six matches between these two sides, Napoli at number one, that’s all you need to know. Not even at their very best did they manage to get win against Inter the season. In fact, after that win, Flash here thought that Inter should win the Scudetto because of that performance.
And to be honest with you, I don’t blame you because right now, I know Napoli have been brilliant over the season but right now, Inter is the best team in Italy at the moment. They’re combative, they have options off the bench that so many other teams just simply don’t have. So, they’ll probably put in the likes of Gagliardini, so a few bench players. But they are so, so combative in the way that they play their football and nobody hates that more than Napoli, so a draw seems like a good shot to me. I also would go for pick just at -120 because Inter do still need to win this. I just don’t know if you think there’s enough value on that.
Flash:
I think if listen, it’s one of those, you either go with a +160 of Inter or you go with the draw at +230, don’t sit on the fence. I think we can put a line through Napoli winning at +180 because the intensity is going to come all from the away side and it’s just going to be the home pride. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. It’s a really tough game and the only reason I added it is because I couldn’t split it and I’d love the fact that what is it? I think the last three games here have been ended one-one. Draw +230, move on to a nice big juicy prize for a home win please. Next game. This is an easy +275. Lazio at +100, is that a trap or is that a gift? I’m happy to say it’s a massive trap. Draw is at +260. Udinese double chance at -120. That could definitely be, Mina, that could be another parlay piece. Udinese double chance, what’d you think?
Mina Rsouki:
Well, here’s the thing. Lazio why everyone thought they’re going to make top four is because they had such an easy run in, right? Udinese being the hardest one that they would have to face towards the end. I don’t … Usually, Sarri’s teams, Napoli, Juventus and now Lazio, in the last 12 matches or 13 matches, you only ever managed six wins out of that last 12 and 13. He’s got five so he’s due one more. Okay? So, where is this one going to come if we’re following patterns here? Is it going to be against Udinese, who, let’s be honest with you, I mean, look at the facts here. They’ve got a lot of absences, I don’t know how many of them they can recover in time because it’s not a team playing at their best. But they are very good at home, we know that and we know that right now, Sarri’s team just don’t look like they have any rhythm or rhyme.
So, I still wouldn’t bet against them frankly speaking, I always, I want to stay away from Lazio now. I do think when they’re on their game they’re amazing to watch but they haven’t been on their game for a while. And it just seems to be that right now they’ve lost all sorts of motivation. But I did see flashes of Milinkovic-Savic being himself in the last game and I thought maybe just maybe I can start believing in Lazio again. I understand if you guys don’t, but I’m still a little bit in awe of the way that they play their football when they went to play.
Flash:
And especially on the road because they’re set up now not to break teams down with creative, basic, short, sharp, passing, free passes and they’re in on goal, they’ve got energy. But for me Nick, it’s Udinese all the way, +275, two big a prize, I’d never, never, ever scared of prizes so I’m going with the home side.
Nick Bormann:
I love Udinese in this spot now. I think we’re seeing the prize that we’re seeing on Lazio. I don’t think we’d be seeing this if it was a couple weeks ago. I think it’s just people are going to look at it and go, “Oh, Udinese have nothing to play for here,” which is true. Lazio have everything to play for but I’ve been saying it for several weeks now, started off the show by saying it, I don’t believe in Lazio, I don’t think they’re deserving of their spot on the table. I’ve been fading them when I can. I think this is another great spot. I love Udinese on the double chance plus a half a goal. We can cash a full ticket on a draw or a win. Then look at Lazio, they’ve allowed 28 goals this year, really good.
They’ve allowed 41.5 expected goals, that over performance is rare to see over the course of the season and generally will catch up with you at some point. Maybe it doesn’t happen this year but by next year it’s a team that you could probably look to go unless they do some major changes. If they’re like, I don’t know what their prize is going to be but they’re a team I’m going to look at, I’ll just say this to possibly fade in the futures market next year. That being said, Udinese, very good form, incredibly tough to beat at home. If you look at their season results, two losses this year, that’s it. They’ve beaten AC Milan, Inter, Roma, Fiorentina, drawn versus Napoli and Atalanta.
I mean, do you really think Lazio’s going to go in there and just walk all over them? Because I guess what, Udinese have nothing to play for? I don’t buy it. I think Udinese is going to play this season out, they’re going to play another tough opponent in their home stadium where I think they want to show off and do it well for their fans again. They just did that against Napoli a couple weeks ago. Surely they didn’t want Napoli to lift that Scudetto title in their house but did end up happening. But I don’t see it, I just don’t see Lazio winning this game. Udinese, there was just, I think they might win it but I think at worst, it’s a draw. So, I’m going to take a double chance.
Flash:
Double chance at -120, also that could well be a parlay piece. But there’s a lot of people in the chat that do think Lazio can win but it’s also just as many saying we’re fading Lazio, we want to be with Udinese. What’s tickling you Queen, are you …
Mina Rsouki:
I don’t know, is it worth a punt at +100? I just feel like Lazio don’t go that many games without a win.
Flash:
I know but it’s at the end of the season and as we’ve said, I think basically, they’re 14 goals better off than they should be. So, teams are not finishing them off when they’ve got their foot on them. So, maybe they are in a false position.
Mina Rsouki:
They’re not scoring goals, that’s the problem. Yeah.
Flash:
Yeah, they’re not scoring them many goals. Udinese at home + 275, looks too big but this is the time of season where you cannot shy away from the unexpected. And listen, -120 if you just want to take the home side and the draw, which may even bring in the under two and half at -115. Let’s have a little look at the official picks please. Okay. Lazio -1 corners at +120. That’s perfect because Udinese are up to nil and Lazio are chasing the game they’re going to get loads of corners. Udinese at +0.5, not +0.25, +0.5 at -120. And for me it’s Udinese money line at +275. Let’s move on to another game and we’re off to Rome. Roma -225, Salernitana +725. What type of Roma’s turning up by the way because they’ve had to travel to Germany for the semi-final of the Europa League. The draw is at +330. The under over is at two and a half and the under two and a half is at -115. I think Nick, that’s where we have to start, under two and a half at -115?
Nick Bormann:
Makes a lot of sense to me. Roma’s defense has been fantastic all year. When it comes to a side, I want no parts of Roma right now. Winless five straight Serie A matches. They’re obviously preoccupied with Europa League. And at this point, I think that’s their only chance, the Champions League football, they trail the top four by six points, only three matches remaining, they’re going to need a lot of stuff. I don’t even know if it’s possible to go their way. So, all their eggs are in their Europa basket, I think this steps up to be a spot where they’re just either gassed or who knows, rotated I’m not sure, depends what happens I guess in that result. But I don’t see them winning this game by multiple goals. You can get Salernitana +1 in a quarter at a pretty good prize and I think it’s worth grabbing that.
I like to call it the hook, grab that hook and if they do, if Roma win, I just don’t see it coming multi goals. So, if they do win at least we’ll cash something there. Salernitana, nothing to play for but they continue to put up good results, just one loss over their last 12 matches, which it was against Empoli, which is odd. They’re coming off at one-nil win over at Atalanta, which none of us expected last time out. Their current run also includes draws with Napoli, Inter and AC Milan. So clearly, they know what to do and a lot of those wins are one-one which supports your under, Flash. So, I like Salernitana getting a +1 in a quarter goal headstart. I am perfectly fine with the under as well.
Flash:
Okay. We give Salernitana a chance here because maybe we don’t see Roma scoring more than once, Mina.
Mina Rsouki:
Yeah, I don’t think so. I mean, here’s the interesting bit. Jose Mourinho came and said that Smalling and Dybala are available for the match that they’re going to play against [inaudible 00:33:40] but they will be available from the start so they’ll be on the bench and possibly able to play, just simply because they don’t have minutes in their legs at the moment. So, I wonder whether here will try to do something against Salernitana now in the last they played each other three times and in all these times Roma have won all the matches. Now Salernitana haven’t actually, so out of 11 of their 12 they’ve been undefeated. It is a bizarre one that they did manage to do.
Roma on the other hand have really been falling down the well because it’s just like what Nick said, right, they’re just too concentrated now on the Europa League. At home we know that they have a secure defense. We also know that they’ll probably have Smalling play a little bit more than half an hour in this match. I honestly don’t know which way to go with this other than to tell you that I agree that is possibly going to be under two and a half. I like Salernitana a lot, I think they have a lot in there. I mean, they’re not an easy team to beat generally, but they’re not also a team that can win either. So yeah, under two and a half is probably where I’d go.
Flash:
Yeah, Also, Salernitana double chance +170 says Fernando. Roma not to score twice, +120 could be a way to go one. One-one looks like a possibility. One-nil, but I’ll tell you what, I’d be very surprised if I see three goals in this game, especially with Roma obviously having to travel back from Germany and they’re not really having that much to play for and it’s a double-edged sword. They could be high on getting to the Europa League final in which case all their eggs and all their eyes are going to be on that prize or they’re going to be completely deflated because they’ve fallen at the final hurdle. So, don’t expect the expected in this game. Let’s have a look at the official picks, sorry Mina?
Mina Rsouki:
What about the draw, +330? Would you go for it?
Flash:
No, I had to leave it alone just because I can’t get involved with Roma because I don’t know what Roma’s turning up. Maybe if I live watch it. But I mean, there’s that many games this weekend that that one I’d just probably file under rubbish to be honest. But Salernitana double chance +160.
Mina Rsouki:
I can go for it.
Flash:
Yeah, you did and you pressed the button again by the way because you went for the other one that we mentioned is Roma not to score twice, under one and a half at +120. I do like that. I think if Roma win this game it’s one-nil and if Salernitana score, I think it’s one-one. So, basically Salernitana double chance around the +170 and Roma team total under one and half at +120. Okay Mina, I’ll come to you for the final game because I fancy you’re the only person that’s going to vote with your heart. It’s Empoli at +425, Juve -150. Draw is at +290. The under over is set at two and a half with the over and the under both being the same at -110. Do you think Juve rolling to Empoli or do Empoli have massive value at +425?
Mina Rsouki:
Empoli do have massive value. As we’ve said, they are a team that beat Salernitana so they do have their say at times. But they’ve somewhat performed under expectation in the last few games when you did expect them to pick up a few more points. They have a solid defense, I think they’re a very well organized team. Having said that, there’s not that much skill there when it comes to scoring goals, not at least against you hope, Juventus. Juventus should be a little bit exhausted, I get that. They’ve traveled to Sanchez Pizjuan in Seville so they will be exhausted after this match. But they have a deep squad and they can rotate as they want to.
There’s Vlahovic, there’s Milik. Unfortunately, no Pogba but they should have enough players to get through this because I think that for Allegri right now, he’s a little bit worried that if he does get a nine point deduction which could look likely rather than 15 points, then he needs to still make top four, which means he needs to ensure the gap that he has right now between Juventus and Milan. So, they’re going to try to win as many games as they can because they face off in the week after that. So, this is a game that’s a must win because they don’t know what will happen against Milan. So, I think they will throw a lot at it, I think they will secure the win but you know with Juventus, they don’t ever get a lot of goals so a two win or one-nil.
Flash:
So, basically like a Juve in under three and a half might be the way to go, right?
Mina Rsouki:
Yes, that’s exactly right.
Flash:
Because you can’t trust Juve at -1 because they might win one-nil. I just had to leave the whole game alone Nick, just because I know that Juve are traveling back from Seville, it’s going to be hot there. Their legs are not going to be full of energy and Empoli, they’re a dangerous little side.
Mina Rsouki:
They are.
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, I agree with that. I’m not personally getting involved in the game. I do like Mina’s suggestion though. I mean, you would think Juve would see this thing through and get a win, especially if they’re approaching it from the angle that they need to win it as Mina suggested that perhaps there is a point deduction coming, if it’s not, of course it doesn’t really matter what they do in this game, they would be more than safe. But they don’t know that so that’s the hard thing to predict here and how they kind of line up.
And you can wait, wait until you see the lineups an hour before kickoff and go from there. But I don’t see a lot of action that’s Juve, right? They got a strong defense. Empoli don’t score a lot so perhaps it’s just a straight under, right as well, under two and a half goals? But I’m perfectly fine with what Mina said, Juve plus under three and a half and you get a pretty good prize on it. So, I don’t think that’s a bad play at all.
Flash:
No and the more I think about this game and the more I know ’cause I’ve seen nearly every single home and away game of Juve this year nearly in all competitions, the under two and a half goals just screams because I think if Empoli score, it’s a one-one. If Empoli don’t score then Juve win one-nil or Juve win two-nil ’cause they’re broken away late on. But I think that this is a dower game and Juve just have to sit and wait their turn. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. That’s seven games we’ve covered there. Mina, Juve in under three and half, it’s a big prize at 125. Remember just the under two and a half goals in the game is at -110. That is sucking me in, to be honest. But anyway, another chance for you all to have a little bit of a Q&A. If there’s anything you want to ask, then ask now.
And while I ask you if you would subscribe and also I’d like you to ring the bell and then that means we’ll notify you never miss any content again. All your props, all your odds are available if you just type in betustv.com/odds. And if you want a $50 free bet on any of the selections that we have mentioned or from any of the other shows, it’s betustv.com/50. Any questions? Okay, I don’t mind giving you a little bit more time. I know that I’m accused sometimes of skipping and moving on from the Q&A a little bit too quickly. So, we’ll go to the best bets please.
Mina, Fiorentina in over four and a half corners, a team total by the way at +100. Lazio -1 corner, +120. Salernitana double chance at +160, Roma team total under one and a half at +120. Juve in under three and a half at +125. Nick’s gone on that Monza train, Monza +0.25 at -110. So, if it’s a draw he gets his half winnings. Atalanta under three and a half at -110. Udinese +0.5 at +120. I’ve gone all out Udinese money nine at +275. Napoli-Inter draw at +230. Torino-Fiorentina draw +225. And you know that if I have my three selections, I only need one of them three to come in and we will definitely be making money. Marley wants to know, Cremonese versus Bologna, quickly Mina.
Mina Rsouki:
Bologna will win that. They shouldn’t because they’re not playing at the best of their ability. But Cremonese are just terrible at defending set pieces and I feel like Bologna can really attack that if they’ve got Arnautovic’s bank. So, that’s what worries me, otherwise double chance. But I don’t think you’ll find lots of value on Bologna, but I don’t see Cremonese winning it. I’m sorry, I feel like they’ve been a bit dreadful recently.
Flash:
Nick, could we go with maybe Bologna and both teams to score?
Nick Bormann:
Yeah, I don’t really like to look at overs very often, but I feel like that could possibly-
Flash:
Yeah, that’s [inaudible 00:42:29] over to me.
Nick Bormann:
So yeah, that would probably where I’d go. Yeah.
Flash:
Franklin says thoughts on Atalanta money line.
Nick Bormann:
It’s got to be pretty high, I don’t even know what it is.
Flash:
Well, I mean, they’re playing with Verona.
Nick Bormann:
I mean, it’s got to be pretty high, I don’t want to do that.
Flash:
No, you can’t trust them. Basically yeah, the value’s not there. Verona, absolutely scrapping for their lives.
Nick Bormann:
Yes.
Mina Rsouki:
I wouldn’t take that because Verona yeah, exactly are scrapping for their lives. Also, they play a very similar brand of football obviously to a poorer level than what Atalanta can manage. But they’re all about their jewels and this time round it’s them that have so much to fight for. So, on that level, I’m a little bit worried. Having said that, ugh, I don’t know, I wouldn’t bet on that.
Flash:
Well, the one thing that springs out to me and obviously it’s nice that you sometimes go with and you stick with the first four, I think that Verona score. So, if Verona will score, so if the team total maybe over half at -125, -130, then I would go with that. And you could also go with Atalanta to win and both teams to score or both teams to score an over. Listen, there’s many ways to skin that cat. Okay, so from Mina, from Nick, from myself, thanks to everyone in the chat, thumbs up on the way out. We’ve still got LaLiga to go with Pavlos and Paco and tomorrow it’d be Bundesliga with Kevin and Alex. Classic tips. So much sport over the weekend, make sure you enjoy it here with us at BetUS. From everyone you take-
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