Nick Borrman:
But maybe some Metallica, that’ll get me through.
Flash:
Metallica.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, Fade to Black [inaudible 00:02:50].
Flash:
That’s a bit noisy on the beach though, isn’t it? I thought you’d be more Kool & The Gang or Bob Marley, and Mina, music taste. Do you want to out yourself?
Mina Rzouki:
Backstreet Boys.
Nick Borrman:
Yes, I do like that too.
Flash:
Oh my God, what was it the other day? It was another boy band the other day, you’re a cougar. You’re on the prowl.
Mina Rzouki:
Well, the other day I was telling you that I wanted to go to the concert of NSYNC’s reunion, but Backstreet Boys is the boy band that I support. I mean frankly, I like all boy bands, I even like Aerosmith.
Flash:
All boys, all boys and we know that. Aerosmith-
Mina Rzouki:
I mean Aerosmith is not really a boy band, but they were very much… Crazy was my theme tune when I was growing up, not because I was crazy, I just really loved the song.
Flash:
Was, was.
Mina Rzouki:
And Cryin’, anything by Aerosmith was very much for me, or Backstreet Boys. I just like men singing.
Flash:
Okay, I’m a bit of a Motown man myself, but I do like a bit of Bob Marley as well. But all genres depends what type of beach it is. Okay, also we’re going to have the records, but the records will be very, very, very quick. They might be blink-
Mina Rzouki:
No, can we focus on this?
Flash:
No, no, no, blink and you will miss them. And obviously, we’re going to have the chat and the Q&A. We’re going to cover six games, meaning there’s going to be some games left over. There is a little tiny caveat of some of these teams have been involved in European competition, but this is Matchday 7. Don says, “I’ll take one of the Spice Girls.” Well, which one, Don? Which one?
Mina Rzouki:
Cool. No, you can’t take a person, you have to take an album.
Flash:
Yeah, but he might be going with Emma Bunton’s greatest hits, just the one person, or Mel C.
Mina Rzouki:
Do they have greatest hits? Okay.
Flash:
Oh, I can’t believe you said that. I can’t believe you’ve decided to bat at the girls. Okay-
Mina Rzouki:
No, but I don’t remember any of their songs. Let’s be honest, who had a career barring Posh Spice?
Flash:
No, who apart from Sporty? Sporty had a great voice, didn’t she? Did she sing with the lad who sang Summer of ’69, Bryan Adams? Do you remember that? No?
Mina Rzouki:
Oh, maybe, actually.
Flash:
Yeah, it’s not the top [inaudible 00:04:53]-
Mina Rzouki:
Scary Spice was my favorite Spice, yeah.
Flash:
Shock, shock.
Mina Rzouki:
Or Ginger, but then now she’s an F1 family.
Flash:
Yes, she is, she is. Anyway, we do digress for a reason because here comes the records and I will out Mina-
Mina Rzouki:
Focus on this, people.
Flash:
… because Mina said, “Please, leave this. This is a disgrace.” 25 units, but Mina-
Mina Rzouki:
Focus on how good I am out of all of them.
Flash:
There you go, Mina’s just going to take over now because Mina said -4.09, but for once this season, she’s going to be top of us four, and it’s basically embarrassing. But yes, Mina, you’re so wrong.
Mina Rzouki:
For once. For once.
Flash:
Mina is so wrong, I knew… She sent me a couple of messages.
Mina Rzouki:
Thank you to the producer for keeping such a long time on this.
Flash:
Yeah, so Mina on top of the lads, and no, that’s it, we’re off. Chat and obviously, we’re going to have the Q&A as well. Andrew G says, “Mina is number one.” Okay, let’s have a little look at the first games, please. I’ve introduced my guests, or they introduced themselves.
First game, what an absolute cracker this is. Empoli +206, Udinese +139, one for the purists. In fact, there might be more people watching it than attending. Draw is at +234, Udinese draw no bet at -145. Empoli don’t normally score in games, but Empoli are -230 to be over or under one-and-a-half. Is it Empoli one, is it two-and-a-half? I’m going to come to you Nick because you’re nodding your head in like… You can be the only person who picked this game.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, I don’t know who would have picked this game, but whatever. So, I guess I’ll try to break it down. Look, I guess both teams have to look at this as a very winnable match for either side. That’s certainly what they got to be thinking. What’s impressive to me is Empoli…
So, first, Udinese does not have a win yet. They need one, obviously, this was a good spot for them to do so. Empoli has one goal this year, that happened to be a win. So, it’s weird how that works, right? One goal they got a win, Udinese does not have a win.
But in seven matches, Empoli’s defense surprisingly has been not terrible. They’ve allowed more than two goals just two times. There was that ridiculous seven-goal allowance against Roma, but once you give up three or four, it’s just like whatever, who cares? And then last weekend they allowed three to Bologna. That means five of their seven matches have finished under the total, and that’s where I’m leaning here in this game just because I think we’re looking at two inept offenses that will probably try to really play each other to steal three points and one goal might be enough to do it.
At home Empoli have allowed just four goals in four matches, they only allowed two to Juventus, they only allowed one to Inter. So, they’re more than capable of holding good teams, and Udinese in this case, to no more than maybe a goal here.
Even though Udinese haven’t won, expected goals certainly suggests they’re the better side than Empoli, so they got to be coming into this match thinking, “Hey, this is our chance. We got to get on the winning streak right here, right now.” Udinese did allow three goals to Juventus and four to Napoli, but otherwise, they’ve done a pretty good job defensively as well against the weak sides. They kept clean sheets against Cagliari, Frosinone, and allowed one goal to Salernitana.
So, Empoli another team they should be able to lock up and keep off the scoreboard, or again, maybe one goal. But I really don’t see much more than a goal from either side, and that’s why I’m leaning towards the under here. I think both teams’ defenses have played good enough to hold both teams’ crappy offenses off the board. So, I think this is actually pretty good value to take an under.
Flash:
Yeah, listen the more you talk about it I think it’s like banker material. I mean you could be looking at 0-0, 1-0 at the most, I mean who doesn’t score? Both teams to score no?
Mina Rzouki:
Both teams to score no is a good way to go. I mean Empoli have failed to score in seven of their last eight matches. They’ve lost seven of their last eight matches, but Udinese haven’t won in their last 11, I mean we’re going back to the previous season at the very end of it. I mean Sottil is having a really terrible time right now, and Udinese, but at least they’ve scored four goals, which is more than I can say for Empoli under Andreazzoli.
But they did have a change of coach, they have been somewhat better now with their new one in Andreazzoli. I feel like they got a win and they’re starting to look like a side that can somewhat play a little bit with more fluidity. I don’t actually watch them and think they’re awful in the same way that I think about Cagliari if that makes sense.
I understand because right now the facts support more of an Udinese victory in this because they do have a better attack, and you can pick out great talent with them in the sense that Samardzic is one of the best midfielders there is in Serie A. And he’s not playing enough minutes, but he’s somebody that I would probably point to when I think of them getting a goal.
Away or at home in the last six matches between these two sides Udinese have won four and drawn one. So, Empoli has always had a tough time against Udinese’s style of play, which tends to be very direct and capable of piercing through. Just because of the two styles of play, I would go more with an Udinese-style win.
I do think Empoli’s a better team overall though, generally speaking. Do I see more than one goal each? Probably not. So, I understand the decision to go with the under two-and-a-half at -127. It’s not enough value, but I don’t know, what about a +139?
Flash:
Well, it’s better value than the losing value that we’ve been having recently. We’ve had -25 units of value.
Mina Rzouki:
Mine is just -4, so I mean in general [inaudible 00:10:48]-
Flash:
Oh.
Mina Rzouki:
I mean I’m just thinking to myself, would you go for a moneyline or is that too much of a risk?
Flash:
Too much of a risk, isn’t it? I thought we said it could well be 0-0 this game. By the way, I’ve got… Just to write in the notes myself, Mina, Serie A capper of the week -4 units.
Mina Rzouki:
Yes, I think so too.
Flash:
With a big new [inaudible 00:11:06]. Let’s have a little look.
Mina Rzouki:
I mean can I also note?
Flash:
Go on.
Mina Rzouki:
If everyone, anyone’s listening, I also bet on Aston Villa to beat Brighton and I got that one superbly right.
Flash:
Oh my God.
Mina Rzouki:
I had a really great week last week.
Flash:
Yeah, but we could just try and save a few of them winners for this show, that’d be nice.
Mina Rzouki:
That would be nice.
Flash:
Because the thing is I can actually vouch that Mina knew that I was on Brighton and she said, “No, no, no, no, you must be on Aston Villa.” So, that gave me even more confidence, but yeah, I was 3-0 down in 15 minutes. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official. Under two-and-a-half -127, the more you look at it, it looks like we do not see three goals in this game, so Nick is on to a winner.
So, that will be 24 units down. Let’s see if we can project where we’re going to be next… But no, there’s no show next week because of the Champions League, so make sure you feast and enjoy this show. Let’s move on to another two teams that want to let you down.
Mina Rzouki:
You mean because of the international break? You said Champions League.
Flash:
Oh, did I?
Mina Rzouki:
Yes.
Flash:
Thank you. Because you just scrambled my brain. Juventus -118, I’m so itching to go like this, but that’s a personal joke I know. Juve -118 at Torino +355. Draw +254, Juve to score twice is +105. I quite like Juve win to nil here. 2-0 would be very nice, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, so it’s going to be… Torino have a little bit of a defensive problem, and so, Tamèze could be taking his place at the back because they don’t have enough people. Now, having said all of that, it’s looking pretty awful for Juve as well.
So, Vlahovic is training separately. As far as we’re concerned, Milik is behind Vlahovic in his recovery, so probably not an option off the bench, although some of the media outlets have recorded him as a potential starter. I don’t know how they’re looking at that.
Now, here’s a problem. In practice today, Chiesa also suffered a thigh problem and is now in serious doubt. It seems to be muscle fatigue, so they’re not entirely sure that they want to risk it. The whole point of Juventus being really excited about not being in Europe was that they’re going to have all of their players available and not injured so heavily, and yet this has become a bit of a ridiculous situation because everyone’s injured up front.
So, if you saw the way that they played against Atalanta, it wasn’t the creation of points. It was the fact that they didn’t really have an outlet at the top other than Moise Kean, who they’re not keen on. Not to mention a pun there, but that is the problem. And he is somebody who needs a lot of players around him to get the best out of him. But when there’s no attackers available, who is helping him?
So, there’s the situation there. We’re potentially looking at a four-man backline for Juventus. Now, the media has gone crazy about the way that Juve played against Atalanta. Everyone’s gone crazy and now everyone’s calling for his head because they cannot believe that Allegri just allowed for that game to happen the way that it did without any ambition and showing any desire to score a goal.
So, when the pressure’s on, that’s the time to bet on Juve because they’re very good at shutting up their critics. Usually when you’re piling on and everyone’s trying to demand the coach’s head, that’s usually when I tend to go in and bet on them, which is quite often, frankly speaking.
Torino with that problem at the back and not having enough bodies there, but they of course do have Zapata. Except the players around him is whether or not you trust them, and I think that’s where we have the issue with him right now is that I feel like most of the time he’s just isolated.
Flash:
Good word. Good word, that’s exactly what he is.
Mina Rzouki:
Isolated, right? With just-
Flash:
Yes.
Mina Rzouki:
Exactly, not enough of an attacking team either. It’s between Sanabria and Karamoh to join him up front, so I would say this is a Juventus victory. I’ve gone for it or a simple moneyline. Usually, between the two sides Juventus always find a way of getting through, and it might just be from a free kick, but I think they’ll get over the line at their home.
Flash:
And the goalkeeping situation, is that sorted now?
Mina Rzouki:
It’s going to be Szczesny, you don’t love him I know, but-
Flash:
Nick-
Mina Rzouki:
And also, what I wonder is why does Perin not get a shout in. But never mind.
Flash:
I don’t know. Nick, Torino not to score is +120. They looked good in one game when they were all close together. Since then, the midfield-
Mina Rzouki:
Two games, two games.
Flash:
Yeah, but when they scored the three, I think it was away at Salernitana. They were all in close proximity of each other so they could go up, back, through, round corners. Get balls in the box so they have many bodies. Verona last week, 0-0, they missed a hatful of chances, but not once did I actually sit there and think that the goal was going to bulge.
Mina Rzouki:
Come.
Flash:
Yeah. Torino under half a goal +120, you like that?
Nick Borrman:
I like it a lot. I mean I made the mistake of playing Torino last week instead of the under. Normally, if it’s Torino, I don’t always trust them to score. I just go with the under because it usually works out better. So, kicking myself on that, but they did exactly what I thought they’d do defensively against Verona, they really shut them down.
But you said it, Flash, there wasn’t a point in that match where I’m like, “Oh, Torino’s going to… They’re putting some good pressure here, the chances are there, they’re eventually going to get one in.” They didn’t create anything.
So, that was a bit of a surprise, but I expect that to be the case again here, against Juve. I don’t think they’re going to get a lot of space, I don’t think they’re going to get a lot of good chances in this match. I say it almost every time we cover a Torino match that against the top teams in the league they are undermatched, they can’t hang. So, I don’t see them getting many good chances.
If something goes in, it’ll probably be some sort of a fluke type of player rebound just bounces to the exact right spot, or maybe it’s a crazy scramble in the box or a free kick or something. But the actual good quality chances that more often will create a goal, I don’t see a lot of those coming.
Juve, you mentioned the lack of European competition for them this year should be working in their advantage. It’s funny that I tried that theory the last time we had the Champions League week, and that was the week they got [inaudible 00:17:11] by Sassuolo and gave up four goals.
But aside from that match, they have been good defensively. They’ve only allowed two goals in their other six matches combined. They are playing well still on the back, and I just don’t see Torino getting a lot here. And with eight of the last 12 Turin derbies between these sides have finished under the total.
Now, on the screen, you’re seeing under two +134. You can go with the split line, the agent handicap of under two-and-a-quarter. So, a split line of two, two-and-a-half, it’s about -120. That way if it does end on two, you’ll still cash half of your bet. So, I like under two-and-a-quarter specifically for this one.
Flash:
Yeah, man, we got it down. That’s maybe Juve two, Torino nil if you just want to go maybe 0-0 as well. Torino is +120 not to score. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because I’ve gone with the home side, but I’ve gone with the home side in a parlay. Under 2.25 at -120 for Nick, and the leader of the pack has gone for Juve in under three-half. That +125, you milk it, girl, because there will be a big change next week.
Mina Rzouki:
It’s a good one, isn’t it?
Nick Borrman:
That is a good one.
Flash:
Yeah, very good.
Mina Rzouki:
It’s got meat on the bones. What about win to nil? That’s also a way to go now.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, yeah.
Flash:
All of a sudden, you’re an expert.
Mina Rzouki:
Oh well, my record says so.
Flash:
I’ll tee you up, you bang them in. Okay, let’s move on to game number three. Genoa +288, Milan -102. Milan +110 that’ll be one-and-a-half goals. Under two-and-a-half is at -127, the draw is at +255. Nick, Genoa have been… They’ve been on the front foot, they’ve scared a few teams, but this Milan side are solid, they’ve just got to… If they get themselves in front, it’s game over.
So, I’m almost liking the Milan team total or just Milan straight win, don’t complicate it, -102. Regardless whether they was on Champions League duty midweek or not.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, you have to expect Milan to win this game more often than not. This is Mina’s official pick, but I’m going to say I agree 100% with it. I’ll let her get the credit for saying what that is, but I’ll lead you to where I think I’m going.
So, Genoa you mentioned, Flash, they’ve played a lot of good games this year. They’ve played a couple of duds too; they lost 1-0 twice on the road, Lecce and Torino. But at home, they’ve been tough. I mean they had that draw versus Napoli, of course, they had a 4-1 rather lopsided win over Roma last weekend.
Even in that opener, the 1-4 loss against Fiorentina, they really weren’t that bad. I think that scoreline was a little skewed there. The XG numbers look a lot more… They were only separated by .3, so probably a little bit skewed there.
But they have been pretty solid these last two home matches, and that does give me confidence that Genoa can get on the board here versus the line because I think they’re going to come in with a lot of confidence knowing they’ve played well against a couple of solid teams recently.
Milan, of course, a second consecutive 0-0 draw to open their Champions League group stage, this time against Dortmund. Their defense though continues to be locked in after that loss to Inter. They gave up, what was that, five goals in their last five matches since then? They’ve kept four clean sheets and they’ve only allowed one goal.
So, that is the worry here for Genoa, but I just feel like Genoa with full rest, Milan maybe a little distracted from the break might be a little tired on the legs, and that could help them sneak in something. So, I don’t like Genoa to win, but I do like them to get on the board, and where does that lead us to? Maybe some goals, but I’ll let Mina take it away as far as what the exact bid is. But I am in full agreement with what her suggestion is.
Flash:
Yeah, I think that Milan have got some good energy, good pace to come into this game. Chukwueze, obviously, Okafor. Do we know if Loftus-Cheek is going to be fit, Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
No, it’s unlikely that he’s going to be used for this match, to be honest with you. So, in midfield, it looks like it’s going to be Musah, Adli, who I thought was great last weekend, and-
Flash:
Yeah, good energy again.
Mina Rzouki:
Really good, right? And Reijnders. It won’t be Giroud either, it will be Okafor and Leão and Chukwueze, they’re probably up front.
Flash:
Wow, look at that three. That three is probably better. Listen, it’s not a massive downgrade or upgrade to be fair. It’s very, very solid. The other thing I’ve got to mention is that Italy play England in the qualifiers next week. I’m just wondering if there is any Italian players that have got knocks where they just think to themselves, look, “It’s a massive game for both England and for Italy that I’m going to make sure that I don’t damage it this weekend.” So, if there’s a 50/50 on a few injuries, we might see some of the internationals not play. Sorry to interrupt you, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Well, so I went for this game because basically it was Genoa playing against Roma and I bet both teams to score and over two-and-a-half. And then I changed it the next day because I thought I’m overestimating Genoa’s ability. I wasn’t. I ended up going for Roma win, which was just tragic because Genoa stuffed them and they were brilliant to watch, frankly speaking. Far better than the Roma side that we’ve expected to watch this season.
And I realized afterwards as I was watching it that I shouldn’t have gone against Genoa, that my initial reaction was correct, and at home, they have been a team that’s taken more risks than they have done away from home. They have some spectacular talent in Gudmundsson whose father, great-grandfather, and great-grandfather are players. His great-grandfather actually-
Flash:
Have you had their family tree out or something?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I mean it’s been this whole story. His great-grandfather played for Arsenal as well as Milan, can you imagine that? In 1940. So, Gudmundsson comes from a long line of football players. He’s been terrific so far, very much the standout player to watch for them alongside Retegui. But Retegui might not play in this match, so it’s a little bit of a loss.
But they also have Junior Messias who we know very well from Milan last season. So, you combine him and Malinovskyi, there’s enough individual talent there to get at least a goal. So, for me, I’m looking at this and I think there’s so much attacking potential on the pitch. I see better attacks than I’ve seen defenses because both teams concede over a goal a game.
Genoa at home is going to take so many more risks, which means an open game, I think. We’ve seen that Milan are a team that are better in attack than they have been in defense. They’ve been very unlucky in the Champions League, honestly speaking, because they’re a side that have created over 31 chances and haven’t come away with the necessary goals, with any goals in fact. And so, that’s been the problem for them.
For me, I’m going for both teams to score and over two-and-a-half because I just think this is going to be a really entertaining match to watch. It would be different if it was Milan at San Siro, but because Genoa is the home side, I feel that this is going to be a really fun team to watch.
I can’t decide the winner because Genoa can manage a surprise or two, especially because they are coached by Alberto Gilardino who’s one of the new generation of coaches that’s really changing our minds about the way that the game is played. So, do you agree with my point of view?
Flash:
I think that Milan are a lot stronger than you’re giving them credit for, to be honest, because-
Mina Rzouki:
They are.
Flash:
… those two Champions League games they’ve hardly been troubled. I mean in the two games that I’ve watched they’ve been the better side technically as a group. I feel as if they-
Mina Rzouki:
But they don’t score.
Flash:
Yeah, I know. Well, they haven’t scored in them two guys and that’s a fact, but they’ve not been hardly troubled in over a hundred or maybe 200 minutes of football. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I think I left it alone, but you’ve gone with both teams to score and over two-and-a-half at +135.
The way that Milan have been playing they’ve not been a 1-0 type of side on the road. They could easily go and win this 3-1, and that’s what we’re looking at. Maybe 2-1, 3-1-
Mina Rzouki:
That’s what we’re hoping.
Flash:
… at +135.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, 3-1 or 4-1 or whatever it is, but I still think Genoa can get the one.
Flash:
For the sake of the show, yes, I’m hoping. For the sake of my ears, no, I’m hoping that Milan win 3-0 and you’ve got it right, but you don’t get paid. Okay, let’s move on. Great game, great game this one.
Mina Rzouki:
Now you know the competition that exists between us.
Flash:
I know, I was going to say it focuses the mind. It’s like nerves, I’m back at it. Lazio +164, Atalanta +167. That means flip a coin, either one of these sides could win. But if you go to the very bottom, the draw at +235 is a massive runner.
Mina, I’m going to stay with you because I think the under two-and-a-half at +102 is a runner as well. I think this is 0-0, 1-0, I cannot split them. So, I’m going down the middle and I’m going to say draw is my best value here.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, to be honest with you, it’s been terrible going for Lazio really except in the Champions League where actually they’ve managed to draw against Atlético Madrid with Provedel scoring, and obviously, managing the win over Celtic even though they went behind.
At home, they’ve scored three goals all season, so it hasn’t been a terrific… It’s been a loss, a draw, and a win for Lazio, but Atalanta haven’t been scoring from all cylinders either. They’ve had some troubles going forward, they’ve also had some injury issues, and the fact that they don’t have Scamacca available to them is going to make a difference.
Atalanta when you think of them, I’m always inclined to go for over when I think of them. But just the way that they’ve been playing is that they’re a lot more focused right now at the back than they are going forward. So, when you look at the attack of De Ketelaere and Lookman, it doesn’t fill me with a lot of hope of them scoring a lot of goals.
I think that Lazio have a very… They have a lot of individual quality within this side, but they’re just unfortunately not scoring from the goals, and they don’t have the type of control or the defensive solitude that they did have last season. I think Rovella’s been excellent in midfield, Guendouzi is likely to start this match as well, and so, with Zaccagni and Immobile and Pedro up front, you feel like maybe they might be able to win this match and start to get back to winning ways.
Sarri, who is the coach of Lazio is having a really tough time, and he’s going out and he is just screaming about the fact that he’s going to leave football because of the way this calendar is and that they just can’t cope with all these games. So, I honestly don’t know, but a draw looks very good to me because I think both these sides are capable of goal but not much else.
Flash:
Lazio paying the price for what Nick said last year of overachieving.
Mina Rzouki:
They didn’t.
Flash:
That’s exactly what it looks like. They came second, now they’ve got Champions League football. Their squad is like, one, it’s aging. Some of the players, I mean Pedro is older than Immobile. Immobile, he’s looking like he’s dead on his feet. I’ve gone for the draw-
Mina Rzouki:
You chose him as your top scorer and now you’re going against him.
Flash:
You put a knife in me, you put a fork in me. Honestly, do you want to give it another little twist? I also backed out of that one-
Mina Rzouki:
It’s my competitive streak.
Flash:
I know. No, it’s like if you’re going overboard, you’re grabbing hold of anybody who’s close, and they’re going with you. That’s what it is. Nick, draw for me +235. Could you go with either side?
Nick Borrman:
No, I wouldn’t be surprised if either team necessarily won. You’re right, it is hard to split. If this was in Atalanta, different story, I would go with the home side, but listen, I appreciate the shout-out. You’re right, I have said Lazio overachieved big time last year. They were, in my opinion, clearly not worthy of finishing second [inaudible 00:28:34]-
Flash:
But see what I did there though? See what I did?
Nick Borrman:
I love it, I love it.
Flash:
I had to go back to last year to find you got something right.
Mina Rzouki:
But they did have Milinkovic-Savic. They did have Milinkovic-Savic.
Nick Borrman:
No wait, it’s been right this year, it just it was based off of last year.
Flash:
Yeah, you’re right.
Nick Borrman:
I just am not smart enough to actually bet against them. But anyway, I do think they’re better than sitting 16th in the table also, so I’m sure they’ll be somewhere closer to the bottom half or the top half of the table. I don’t know if that makes sense, but you get what I’m trying to say.
Flash:
Yes.
Nick Borrman:
This is an under to me. The theme of the week for me is unders, and I think this is going to be another one. Atalanta surprisingly have been very, very good defensively this year, and they’ve kept six clean sheets and eight matches. I’m looking right now they’re up 2-0 against Sporting in the Europa, and Sporting’s been great this year.
They clearly are doing everything they need to on the back line, so that’s the worry here. I don’t see Lazio creating a lot of chances. Maybe they get a goal, but probably not much more than that. It’s been an easy schedule for Atalanta I’ll admit that, but they did come off that 0-0 draw versus Juve. They shut Juve down, I mean five shots, .2 expected goals. Juve didn’t [inaudible 00:29:42]-
Mina Rzouki:
No forwards.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, so to me, Atalanta are doing well defensively, but I just don’t see a lot of action here from them either just because they’re not winning like that. The Atalanta of years past was score five and win 5-2. Now, their defense is good enough to win one or two to nil, and I think, again, I’m not choosing them as the side, but that could be a scenario that plays out in this match, and they clearly can hold on to leads like they weren’t able to do a few years ago.
Lazio, you look at their numbers this year, again, I think their place in the table’s a little low, but they’re averaging 1.03 expected goals per game this season. That ranks 13th in the league, so it is telling of what this team is doing offensively.
You’re right, Flash, you add in a team that’s not really, really deep and you’re throwing in these European Champions League specifically fixtures, it just further complicates what they can do and what you expect they can do in Serie A. So, tired maybe again coming in here. It was an important win for them to get midweek this week, so that’s good for them, but I don’t know how that’s going to translate here other than I think it’s just not going to get a lot of offensive chances.
Ultimately, I can’t really split the teams, but I just don’t see much action either way again in this one, so under two-and-a-half again.
Mina Rzouki:
Do you think double chance-
Flash:
Yeah, looks like another unders game.
Mina Rzouki:
Do you think Lazio double chance would be like -180?
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, it’s going to be pretty high.
Flash:
Yeah, do you want a Lazio double chance Atalanta, do you know what I mean? Do you want to cover all the bases?
Nick Borrman:
Oh yeah, just not the draw.
Flash:
Yeah, just not the draw. So, basically, you could do that, Mina. You could do Lazio to win, Atalanta to win, and not the draw.
Mina Rzouki:
I just I’m always scared of draws.
Flash:
But why? That’s what pays the money, that’s what buys the handbags at Christmas. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I see there’s been very low scoring. I agree 0-0, 1-1. Under two-and-a-half goals at +102. In fact, I might even go with under two-and-a-half myself at +102. Not for the show, but in real life because it may just save my draw in case I get beat 1-0 later on by an Atalanta goal. Draw +235, I hope I’ve not jinxed myself. I had it down as 0-0, 1-1.
Let’s move on to game number five. Let’s [inaudible 00:31:53]. Cagliari versus Roma. Nick, Roma, I just think they win the game, don’t complicate it. -118 Cagliari, probably the worst side. I mean there’s not many sides that I can rely on and go, “Okay, Roma, go and do the job.” They score first, game over.
Nick Borrman:
Listen, I’m going to be pretty short on this one. On paper, yes, Roma certainly the better team. Cagliari winless on the season. Combine two goals in seven matches immediately screams take Roma. But Roma has laid some impressively bad duds is what I’ll say this year on the road. One at Genoa, 1-1 draw at Torino, 1-2 loss at Verona.
Their only away match so far came against Sheriff in the Europa, so I just don’t want to put my money on them away from home at this time. That’s what it comes down to, I just don’t trust that they will actually get the win. Should they? Yes. Will they? I don’t know.
Cagliari likely to set up defensively. While at the same time, I doubt they find much space because Roma’s defense still has been pretty good. Again, a little suspect on the road, so perhaps if I’m going to get involved, I might look at the under in this one. But I just don’t want to put my money on Roma, that’s what it comes down to right now. So, I don’t want to choose them, but maybe it’s low-scoring.
Flash:
I think you go Roma 118. -118 brings in the 1-0, don’t worry about the over one-and-a-half at +110 because Cagliari not to score is +125. Cagliari, Empoli, Empoli, Cagliari. I’m with Roma, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I’m with Roma too. I understand looking at Roma and the way that they’ve performed this season has been so below expectations it’s unreal, and they haven’t really had a defense, and certainly not the one that we saw last season. And the absence of Smalling, Ibañez is sold. There’s all major factors and it looks like Cristante will again take his place in the backline, so we’re talking about a makeshift defense once again.
But Cagliari is just so woeful. I mean they’ve conceded five goals at home and scored only one, but Roma away from home haven’t been that much better either. They’ve only scored three goals on the road but conceded seven, and it doesn’t help that they’re playing tonight as well in the Europa League.
Having said all of that, again, there’s just coaches that I rely on criticisms are high of them. Then you know that that’s when they come out and they try to prove a point. And I do feel that last week he tried to prove a point with the win for Roma. Jose Mourinho is under a lot of pressure, and he keeps reminding us of the fact that he took Roma to two European finals, and that he is working with a limited budget, and that he’s turned down better jobs for this role.
So, I think that he is really interested in making sure that Roma continue climbing, and he’ll be really set on winning this game against Ranieri’s boys. I also think it’s important that Dybala will be rested today, and so, he is looking to rotate the squad for the Europa League in order to have them available for this weekend against Cagliari. So, that is the preference and that is the priority, and that is what makes me think that with Lukaku and Dybala against Cagliari’s defense, I’m going for Roma.
Flash:
I think Roma find a way. I think Roma will actually be able to create the right chances, and they’ve got the personnel to actually take them. With Cagliari, I don’t see them scoring. You could bring in the 0-0. We bring in the 0-0, you’re going to add the +125 Cagliari. But for me, you could just basically have Roma at -118. Don’t complicate it, they will find a way at some… And they have players that can come off the bench and-
Mina Rzouki:
Pellegrini as well.
Flash:
Exactly. I mean he was captain two years ago. He was the leader of this bunch. He was the one-
Mina Rzouki:
He is the leader.
Flash:
Well, but he’s on the bench. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks, please, because it’s Roma all the way for us. Okay, Roma moneyline is the second leg of my parlay, and for Mina, it’s Roma moneyline at -118. Let’s go to our sixth and final game. We’re off to Naples. It’s Napoli at -152 against Fiorentina at +390.
Straight away you got to look at the goals and the over three goals in the game is at +123. Mina, you can go first because there’s no clean sheets here, I’m sure because Fiorentina are doing well in all aspects of the game. And Napoli, they are Napoli, they just keep going forward regardless, but there are holes at the back.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, there are holes at the back. I think that’s the only problem that you’ve got. I mean if you watched them against Real Madrid you have to say that you feel a little bit sorry for them because they really did try to take on Real Madrid and did a wonderful performance for them. Question marks over the penalty I’m sure, but that Valverde shot, there’s little they can do about it.
I think that they tried really hard and managed to create a lot that really threatened Madrid. But unfortunately, they just couldn’t get over the line. I feel like they’re somewhat finding themselves again after a tricky start to the season, which just looked like they had lacked the lucidity and the tempo. They play with such fast circular football, they just move the ball so quickly, and that was going away from them.
But last week we found once again Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia combining and scoring goals again. And so, I feel like we’re starting to see them back now. Back to being their best. Of course, you can really feel the absence of Kim Min-Jae at the back. Just in general their defense is not as strong as it has been, but they are… I believe in Osimhen, I believe in this Kvaratskhelia, and Zielinski has been on fire.
But Fiorentina are, on the other hand, also a really good team to watch, even though they’re going to be playing as well tonight. So, I can imagine that that’s going to be just somewhat more exhausting for them, but they’re undefeated in 10 of their last matches in Serie A. So, they are a very front-footed side, and between these two teams, you really need to… It’s throwing… What is it, tossing a coin? Because you have no idea which way it goes. Napoli have won three of the last six, Fiorentina won two, there’s been one draw.
But it’s always one of those where you have no idea if it’s going to be low-scoring, high-scoring, who’s going to win, who’s not going to win? It tends to be a tricky game to play. Usually, I would go for overs in this match, but I’m just thinking about the fact that they’ve both exerted themselves in Europe. I wonder… But you see under three is -143, so you’re not going to get much.
It’s about… I actually don’t even know. Minus one, do you really feel like Napoli could score two goals more than Fiorentina?
Flash:
So, you’d go with Fiorentina plus one. I think the whole thing about this game has nothing to do with Napoli. I think it’s about Fiorentina. Do you really believe now that you can sit at the top table because they’re playing well enough? And you go to Naples, and listen, I’ve seen Lazio go there and do a number. I think both teams score and over is the way to do it, and it just basically takes away-
Mina Rzouki:
Do you think so?
Flash:
I do. I think Napoli can’t keep clean sheets. I just need Fiorentina to go on the front foot-
Mina Rzouki:
But their forward line.
Flash:
Yes, and then-
Mina Rzouki:
Their forward line-
Flash:
Napoli could win 3-1 and it pays both teams to score and over, Napoli could win two-
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, that’s true.
Flash:
But all I’m doing is I’m bringing in Fiorentina winning 2-1 in the 90th minute on a breakaway goal because I haven’t got the cahunas to go with Fiorentina to win at +390. But if there was one, if there was one shock on paper before we even get to the kickoffs, I thought, Nick, this could have been it.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah, this is a tough spot for Napoli. I mean Mina mentioned their loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League, so boy, would that be a bad place to enter the international break with back-to-back losses. So, a lot, I think, of pressure on Napoli to deliver in this spot. But I think the straight moneyline and the total are… I don’t see a lot of value, I think they’re priced pretty well.
I don’t want to lay -150 on Napoli certainly because, Flash, you mentioned that their defense hasn’t been great at keeping clean sheets, and I think Fiorentina can certainly score. I do have a purple shirt on today, but my suggestion is not going Fiorentina. It is actually to back Napoli still because I think it’s an important match. I think they have enough quality to win this more often than not.
I don’t want to take them to -150, but agreeing with what you said, Flash, I don’t see a clean sheet, I see some action. So, if you combine Napoli to win and both teams to score, you’re talking better than two-to-one on your money. I’ve seen as high as +220-
Flash:
Wow.
Nick Borrman:
So, I like that bet. You already mentioned the 3-1 result, a 2-1 result would be good. Of course, your other suggestion or thought of Fiorentina breaking away late, that wouldn’t pay, but you look at Fiorentina’s record this year, yes, very, very solid. But who have they played? Cagliari, Udinese, Genoa. They won against them, at least did what they had to do, but they only drew against Frosinone and Lecce.
The one tough match they’ve had, 4-0 to Inter. But Inter’s been very, very good defensively. So, yeah, I don’t think Napoli’s going to be as strong defensively, so I do see Fiorentina breaking through here. But I just think quality favors Napoli. I think they’re going to find a way to win this game, but I’m just not taking -150.
Mina Rzouki:
What about Napoli over two-and-a-half? Because if you think both teams will score then that’s true.
Nick Borrman:
What was your-
Flash:
Yeah, that’s probably going to be about +110, +115, or something like that.
Mina Rzouki:
Napoli in over two-and-a-half.
Nick Borrman:
Oh yeah, yeah, that could be another way. Yeah, that would be fine because that’s… I think that’s the same as both teams to score.
Flash:
Even if Napoli win this game, and that’s probably 65-70% of the time that’s going to happen, I just want Fiorentina to go on the front foot, create chances, and do what they do against other teams. Because apart from it being massive Napoli Scudetto champions, at the back they’re not anywhere near where they were last year. They’re not protecting the back four, the back four is too far apart. They’re not confident on the ball and they still want to play out.
So, I just want Fiorentina to have a go. I’m more than happy for Napoli to win 5-1 as long as Fiorentina have a go. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both teams to score and over two-and-a-half at +110, and Nick you did like, although it’s not official, you could do if you have it in an official +220, you know what I mean?
Nick Borrman:
Probably add that, yeah.
Flash:
Yeah, Napoli to win and both teams to score.
Nick Borrman:
Yeah.
Flash:
Okay, time for your Q&A. First of all, I’d like you to subscribe, and also, I’d like you to ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you like your odds and your props and you like your prop parlays and your prop builders and that now, you have to type in betustv.com/odds. And it’s the 30th birthday here at BetUS.
So, you go to BetUS… Yeah, you can’t remember 30th birthday. Betustv.com/join for 30 free bets. Not 30 free bets, 30 risk-free bets, and 125% bonus as well. Okay, is there any questions on any of the other games, please? Now is the time to shout, if not I’ll just go straight into the best bets. We’re not going to sit here and give Mina any ammunition.
Well, producer has made the decision. Nice one, producer, love all that. Juve and under three-and-a-half at +125 for Mina who’s number one capper here on Serie A channel.
Mina Rzouki:
Yes, [inaudible 00:43:16].
Flash:
Genoa-Milan both teams to score and over two-and-a-half at +135. Roma moneyline -118. And for me, the parlay Juve moneyline Roma moneyline is a +241. Lazio-Atalanta draw +235, and Napoli-Fiorentina both teams to score and over two-and-a-half at +110.
Nick’s gone for Empoli-Udinese under two-and-a-half at -127. Draw halftime there as well. I think was that minus? I did write it down -105. Juve and Torino under 2.25 at -120. Lazio-Atalanta under two-and-a-half at +102.
Giovanni just quickly said Lecce. What, you want some milk, Giovanni? You want milk? He’s saying about Lecce. Let’s have a little look-
Mina Rzouki:
Lecce-Sassuolo.
Flash:
Yeah, after what Sassuolo have been getting up to, why would you even want to get involved in a game with Sassuolo? They beat Milan-
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, [inaudible 00:44:16]-
Flash:
… they beat Juve, and then they lose at home to Monza.
Nick Borrman:
Monza.
Flash:
There you go. Did you take them?
Mina Rzouki:
I mean Lecce hasn’t won against them-
Flash:
Did you take them, Nick? Monza, they-
Nick Borrman:
Yes, I did.
Flash:
You did. Is that your winner?
Nick Borrman:
Yes, I did plus a quarter, plus a quarter. Not on this show though.
Flash:
Wow.
Nick Borrman:
Sorry.
Flash:
Oof, okay. Okay, yeah, yeah, Giovanni, Lecce-Sassuolo leave it alone, my lad. We’ve given you plenty of winners. Have faith, okay? Have faith that this week we have found you the right combinations to the lock because that’s what it’s all about. Last week we had all the right numbers, but we didn’t get them right, that was the problem. We hardly lost a game last week, and yet we never cashed, which is not a problem in the long run.
Mina Rzouki:
I cashed.
Flash:
Oh, did you, did you? Are you trying to whisper to tell the… You’re trying to tell the chat without me and Nick hearing.
Mina Rzouki:
Just to explain that I got some right.
Flash:
Oh, did you? Okay, well, that won’t happen again. Okay, so from Nick, from myself, and from Mina, and everyone at BetUS please make sure you join us. We’ve got La Liga coming up, tomorrow the Bundesliga, and next week it’s the international break, so we will see these smiling faces in the best part of 10 days to two weeks.
Don, I’ll leave you with the last one. Don says, “Giovanni wants some pancakes and some lactose-free milk.” Don, you are a comedian. From everyone at BetUS, you take care.
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