(Video) UFC 307 – Betting Picks, Predictions, and Insights
This Weekend’s UFC 307 Card is Loaded With Great Betting Angles
Stacked Betting Card
Of all the UFC fight cards coming up, the UFC card this weekend has to be the most stacked. We have everything from potentially retiring vets to young up-and-comers, and of course, one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Alex Pereira, will be defending his belt as well. Let’s make some bets on these upcoming UFC fights.
Tim Means vs. Court McGee Betting Analysis
The first fight of the UFC fights this weekend features UFC veterans Court McGee and Tim Means. This is a fight where the loser may potentially retire, as McGee is 39 years old entering this fight and Means is 40 years old.
I’m lining up with the boys on the show and taking Court McGee at +160. This fight will take place at altitude in Salt Lake City, and Means tend to fade quickly in fights, even without usually fighting at altitude. McGee and Means are both up there in age, but McGee has the better cardio in fights.
Means also tends to leave his neck out there, as he has been submitted seven times in the UFC. McGee has not secured a submission in the UFC since 2010, but even threatening finishes and winning grappling exchanges will be enough to get him the win to open the night.
Pick: Court McGee +160
Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira Betting Analysis
Kayla Harrison stormed onto the UFC scene after years of dominating the PFL with a submission win over Holly Holm back in April. Harrison is a crazy woman. Straight up. I would bet my left kidney that she’s on steroids. She is one of the most muscular women I’ve ever seen, and I would not want to be someone that pisses her off in a bar.
Harrison will face Ketlen Vieira this weekend and is a massive -1200 favorite. While taking Harrison on the moneyline has a horrible payout, we can grab plus money by taking the under 2.5 rounds at +120 on BetUS.
Vieira is a grappler, and she wins most of her fights on the ground. Harrison is a two-time gold medal-winning Judo fighter who also has great hands. Harrison could knock Vieira out, but she could also Judo slam her and rain down elbows and cover the octagon in blood, much like Renato Moicano did to Benoit last week. This could be a club-and-sub, but it could also be a doctor’s stoppage. Either way, I love getting plus money for this one to end before the midway point of round three.
Pick: Kayla Harrison / Ketlen Vieira Goes Under 2.5 Rounds +120
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Betting Analysis
All of the UFC fights coming up this weekend lead up to the main event between champion Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr., Pereira has taken the UFC scene by storm after beating some of the best in the sport and becoming a two-division champion. Poatan had a lengthy career in kickboxing before making the switch to the UFC, but this bet is on Pereira to switch it up.
Matty made a great case for Pereira to win by submission on the show. Pereira has been training with Glover Teixeira, one of the best grapplers in the world, and has also made a bet with Kayla Harrison to “switch things up” in this fight, hinting at the fact we may see Poatan grapple in this fight.
It would be a great time because Rountree has no ground game and is about as good of a grappler as Poatan, if not worse. Pereira had Prochazka hurt on the ground in their previous fight and could have jumped a rear naked choke, but opted for the TKO. Rountree has a lot of power, so Pereira opting for some grappling, especially early in the fight to tire Rountree out, may not be a bad idea.
Given that Pereira has yet to secure a submission in MMA, we are getting a very high price of +1000 on Pereira to find the submission tomorrow night. Let’s ride this one to have a huge finish to the UFC 307 fight card tomorrow night.