Paul vs Diaz: The Saga Continues

Paul vs Diaz in MMA: Who Wins?

When Paul shocked the MMA world and signed with PFL, it came with an even bigger surprise: a two-fight challenge versus Diaz. Paul wants to fight Diaz in boxing and in MMA. Of course, as the online sports betting lines layout, folks can wager on who wins each fight.

Currently, Paul is favored to win the boxing fight while Diaz is significantly favored in the MMA fight (-800). A bet on this order of victory is lined at -250, which implies a 71.4% probability. The reverse, Paul winning MMA but Diaz winning boxing, is the least likely outcome at +2200 (4.3% implied probability).

Paul claims he wrestled in NCAA Division I, which is false. He did wrestle in a school that belonged in Division I though he did not face D-I competition. However, he did fairly decently and reached the sectional finals of the Northeast region of this division. He lost to future All-American Ben Darmstadt.

Regardless, if Paul can wrestle and can box, that only leaves his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Diaz is a 3rd-degree black belt from the prestigious Cesar Gracie. He holds 13 career submission victories and is tied with Jim Miller for the most submissions in the UFC’s lightweight division (seven).

Should Paul try to engage Diaz on the ground, he will be at a massive disadvantage. Paul may be bigger than Diaz, but the experienced MMA fighter could submit him from wherever he pleases.

Paul currently trains with ADCC head organizer Mo Jassim and ATOS BJJ black belt Michael Perez. Of course, training in BJJ for a year is nothing compared to Diaz’s background. But that’s why Paul is a sizable underdog here.

The “Problem Child’s” best path to victory is to keep the fight standing and make it a boxing match. Given Diaz’s proclivity to striking, he may even humor Paul. Thus, a bet on Paul to win both MMA and boxing is at +550. That may be the best UFC bet given the circumstances.

Is Diaz Being Underestimated with These Odds?

At 22-1 to win both fights, Diaz fans can say that their idol is being underestimated again. The Stockton native has made a career out of surprising everyone. He most famously upset Conor McGregor as a +350 underdog. In 2011, he also ended “Cowboy” Donald Cerrone’s winning streak as a +230 underdog.

Overall, Diaz is almost always lined as a dog. His record in the UFC is 7-6, which would make him a lucrative fighter to bet on. However, beating Paul in boxing is another thing. For one, Diaz has not boxed at a high level. While he has made a name for himself in the octagon by outboxing his opponents, beating an actual boxer is a tall task.

We’ve seen top-tier strikers like McGregor and Anderson Silva get lit up in boxing. In fact, Paul not only defeated Silva but even knocked him down. Prior to Silva, Paul also knocked out former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley.

Diaz set a UFC record by landing 238 significant strikes against Cerrone. That is the most landed in a three-round bout and it still has not been broken 11 years later. But as prolific as Diaz was, he exposed Cerrone’s lack of head movement and boxing acumen.

Paul will be much harder to hit. He’s also bigger than Diaz. In fact, Diaz will be the “smallest” opponent Paul will have boxed. While Diaz is tall at six feet, he mainly fought at 155 pounds. The opponents Paul fought were natural 170-pounders or even 185-pounders.

Diaz is known for his granite chin. But eating constant shots from Paul, a 200-pounder, will be another thing. As such, the boxing odds favor Paul here. If Diaz pulls it off (+265), he may as well go down as the biggest hero in MMA Ever.