For the third straight Pay-Per-View, the favorites dominated the UFC betting lines. All but two won at UFC 268, including all five fighters on the main card. However, the pair of underdogs who won did so in scintillating fashion including Chris Barnett who put on a highlight reel.
Since UFC 266, the favorites have gone 31-4 having lost just once each in the last two PPVs. The favorites won everything until the main event for UFC 267. The underdogs were slaughtered for the second straight week as we break down this UFC’s betting results.
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 6, 2021
A Golden Pay-Per-View for Favorites
Chalked Up Parlay
Parlaying all five fighters on the main card would have yielded nearly $900 on a $100 wager at +895. This would have been the best UFC bet of the night. Four of these favorites won by decision even if Rose Namajunas (-110) just won a split. Marlon Vera (-150) was the lone finisher as he weathered Frankie Edgar’s early barrage to put him away with a head kick.
Champions Retain but Not Without Adversity
UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defeated Colby Covington again but it was a tougher fight this time around. Usman opened at -280 and was bet down to as low as -350 before closing at -300. Namajunas, on the other hand, was at a pick’em price and edged Weili Zhang for the second straight time.
Another Rough Night for Underdog Bettors
Chris Barnett Wins in Style
Barnett became the first underdog to win and he did it in style over Gian Villante. The stocky heavyweight opened as a slight favorite at -145 but was bet up on the sportsbook to +110 at one point. Ultimately, he settled at a pick’em price of -115 by the time the cage doors closed. We’ll still count him as an underdog.
The Biggest Winner…
Was another “Chris”, Chris Curtis who took out Phil Hawes in the first round as a +240 underdog. Many bets online did go to Curtis who opened at +260 but was bet down to this number as the fight started. Curtis to win by a finish was +415 and him to win in round 1 was +800.
Totals Go Over in Start and Finish
Over, Under, Then Over
Folks betting the over would have also scored big going by the night’s trend. All five PPV bouts went over including the Vera-Edgar fight, which ended at the 3:50 mark of the third. To kickstart the night, the first three bouts all went to decision (over) as well. But five of the next six bouts, all the way to the last fight of the prelims, went under as they all ended with a knockout.
Going the Distance Despite the Odds
Not many predicted Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler to go the full 15 minutes on Saturday, but they did. The fight was lined at -115 at just 1.5 rounds while the prop for it to go the distance was at +240. Gaethje scored a brutal knockdown on Chandler in the second round but both fighters stood on their feet until the final bell.
The Next UFC PPV: Oliveira vs Poirier
The next UFC PPV will take place on Saturday, Dec. 11 and features another blockbuster main event as Charles Oliveira defends his lightweight belt against Dustin Poirier. These fighters are always exciting and are two of the best finishers in the UFC. Expect plenty of back-and-forth here with plenty of online betting on either fighter and for the fight to not go the distance.