In one word: WOW. Underdogs came through for UFC 269 led by Julianna Pena, who stunned Amanda Nunes and the online gambling world by submitting her in the second round. Nobody saw that coming as the 6-1 underdog pulled off this year’s greatest upset.
These end-of-the-year UFC Pay-Per-Views tend to hold something special. Six years ago, Holly Holm shocked everyone by destroying the nigh-invincible Ronda Rousey. Two years later, Rose Namajunas would do the same by taking out then-undefeated champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. And one year later, Amanda Nunes would KO the most feared woman in MMA, Cris “Cyborg’” Justino. Now it’s Nunes’s turn to be on the wrong end of history.
Pay-Per-View Goes To The Dogs
Pena Shocks Everyone
How did Julianna Pena do it? The Venezuelan was +600 from the BetUS online sportsbook just before the fight started. After being dominated by Nunes in the first, Pena would rally in the second to secure a submission hold that quickly made the champion tap.
Not only did Pena cash big as a straight bet, but bettors who took the extra step and bet on her to win by a finish would have profited 10 times (+1000) their wager. This would have been the best UFC bet for the evening.
PPV Sees Four of Five Underdogs Win
Pena was not the only underdog who won her fight. In fact, only Raulian Paiva (+230) failed to win as an underdog on the main card.
Charles Oliveira would defend his lightweight title against Dustin Poirier at an even price. But he opened at +110. Kai Kara France would also cash at the same odds against Cody Garbrandt while Geoff Neal edged Santiago Ponzinibbio at -110. He opened at even odds.
Streak Busting: UFC 269 Ends Hot Run of Favorites
UFC 269 Underdogs Buck Recent Trend
As we covered in our betting recaps, favorites have been dominating UFC PPVs. From UFC 266-268, favorites won 31 of their 35 bouts. UFC 268’s main card’s favorites swept their five fights. But UFC 269 saw seven underdogs win, which is nearly double of the last three combined PPVs.
Boom or Bust: Prelims Dogs that Hit or Missed
Former champion Dominick Cruz was one of the most bet underdogs. He opened on the UFC betting lines as a +110 underdog but was bet down to a pick’em price of -115 when the fight started. He would handily win his fight against Pedro Munhoz (-115).
On the flip side, Jordan Wright would let his backers down. The “Beverly Hills Ninja” was as high as a +275 underdog but was bet down to +235. He would go on to get starched by Bruno Silva (-315).
Round Totals Go Longer Than Expected
Fights Mostly Went Over
In an event that saw nine of the 14 fights get finished, the round totals went over eight times. A few of them just barely went over. Tony Kelley finished Randy Costa at the 4:15 mark of the second while Pena submitted Nunes just under a minute after the over hit.
Next UFC PPV: Ngannou vs Gane
The next PPV, UFC 270 will be a big one to kickstart 2022 as former training partners and now heavyweight champions Francis Ngannou faces Ciryl Gane to unify the belts. We can expect Ngannou (16-3-0) and Gane (10-0-0) to be lined evenly or close to it.
And in the co-main event will be the trilogy fight between UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno and former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Find the entire card’s odds from the BetUS sportsbook.
