UFC goes back to the Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday and we show value in three healthy favorites on the preliminary card. We’ll consider UFC bets in the more fast-paced divisions, observing fights at the bantamweight, featherweight and lightweight divisions.
Either Parlay or take Prop
Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson
Charles Rosa has been under the radar and it’s probably because of a weird win-loss trend he has in the UFC. He hasn’t lost or won two fights in a row in his entire UFC career. He’s coming off a loss, so based on his record he’s due for a win, right? Negative.
He’s also tempting to take on the moneyline now that he’s moved up to +155 from +140 if you wish to bet online. Here’s why he’s breaking his trend and losing his second fight in a row for the first time in his UFC career.
Rosa has shown he has great submission defense and he’s good with minimizing damage while on his back. He’s good with wrist control, strike defense on the ground and has just enough in him to drag this fight to a decision even if he’s not the aggressor.
Damon Jackson is the more aggressive striker that can do well with top position. With little line movement, Jackson at -190 isn’t terrible, and throwing him in a parlay will help with value.
A submission end just doesn’t seem likely. This fight seems to have a recipe for a grappling match left in the hands of the judges. If Jackson breaks Rosa’s win-loss tradition and secures the victory, it will be on the scorecards. Throw Jackson in a parlay with one of the fights below or pick Jackson to win by decision at +160.
Pick: Jackson to win by decision +160
Chris Gutierrez vs Felipe Colares
Gutierrez is a solid striker who is facing a really good grappler both with Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo in Colares. He’s really good off his back and is extremely technical on the ground. If Colares was facing a less dominant striker than Gutierrez, he wouldn’t be such a big underdog (+200).
Colares can nullify a lot while off his back but the key will be how many of Gutierrez’s strikes will he be able to absorb. Not only is Gutierrez sharp with his punches, but he’s also good with leg kicks that pay good dividends throughout the fight.
There is a lot of promise for Gutierrez and the dominant nature of his striking seems like it could overwhelm Colarez. My issue is taking him at -260 on the moneyline is that he simply doesn’t have the experience with strong enough UFC competition to lay that kind of juice.
Gutierrez -260 paired up with Jackson in a parlay wouldn’t be an investment. Pairing up Gutiierrez with the lightweight bout below could be another good investment at the sportsbook.
Steven Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros
Garcia is going to be the more composed fighter. He’s better on his feet and he’ll have enough off his back if the fight goes to the ground. Again, the line on Garcia is too high at -330 so back to the prop department we go.
Ontiveros can knock you out and he can absolutely be floored as well. We saw what happened when he faced Kevin Holland and that is the only footage we have of him under the UFC banner. Similar to Holland, Garcia has the better striking here and will most probably overwhelm Ontiveros.
Bring back some value by throwing Garcia -330 in a parlay with one of the two fights listed above or cash in with a better value bet by taking Garcia to win by KO, TKO, DQ or submission.