UFC 230 Free Betting Picks & Betting Preview

[C] Daniel Cormier (-700) vs [#2] Derrick Lewis (+450) – UFC 230

Daniel Cormier last fought at UFC 226 when he knocked out Stipe Miocic in the first round to win the heavyweight strap. With that win, Cormier became the first man in UFC history to simultaneously hold the heavyweight and light heavyweight titles.

Earlier this month, Cormier revealed that he still couldn’t make a fist almost three months after breaking his hand in July’s fight. Cormier is also putting his fight against Brock Lesnar at risk if he were to lose against Lewis.

It’s pretty clear to me that Cormier sees an opportunity against Lewis. He’ll be facing a one-dimensional fighter with a gas tank fit for a Vespa, who’s had numerous back issues, and is coming off a grueling three-round fight less than a month ago in which he was outstruck 121 to 39 before pulling off the come-from-behind win. Lewis is clearly outmatched against Cormier.

Cormier is a smart fighter. He will use his wrestling to tire out Derrick Lewis while punishing him on the ground. -700 is too steep a price to pay on its own. Bet on Cormier to finish “The Black Beast”. Also, parlay the -700 with this next bet.

[#3] Chris Weidman (-180) vs [#5] Ronaldo Souza (+150) – UFC 230

Chris Weidman (14-3) was originally set to rematch Luke Rockhold in the co-main event of UFC 230. Rockhold was forced to pull out of the fight last week due to a series of injuries. Now, he’ll face Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (25-6).

Chris Weidman is 1-3 since losing to Rockhold in December 2015. All three losses were brutal finishes against top-notch fighters (Luke Rockhold, Yoel Romero, Gegard Mousasi). Weidman submitted Kelvin Gastelum in the third round of their fight at UFC Fight Night in Long Island, NY on July 22nd.

Jacare is 3-2 since finishing Vitor Belfort at UFC 198 in May 2016. Since then, he’s submitted Tim Boetsch and scored a KO/TKO victory over Derek Brunson. His two most recent defeats were at the hands of Robert Whittaker (second round KO/TKO) and Kelvin Gastelum (split decision).

Jacare is a legit monster on the ground. His Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is unparalleled in the UFC. Weidman will look to take the fight to the ground, which plays right into Jacare’s skillset. I don’t put much faith in Weidman. He was mauled in three consecutive fights before submitting a welterweight in Kelvin Gastelum (granted, the same fighter that beat Jacare).

There’s some real value in Jacare here. Bet online the BJJ ace to submit the wrestler at UFC 230.

[#6] Derek Brunson (+250) vs [#9] Israel Adesanya (-350) – UFC 230

Derek Brunson (18-6) vs Israel Adesanya (14-0) is the fight I’m most looking forward to on this card. Adesanya is an exciting fighter who’s won 86% of his fights by KO/TKO. His cadence in the ring reminds me of Anderson Silva with Jon Jones’ creativity. No, I’m not saying he’s as good as either legend. Relax.

This will be Adesanya’s biggest test to date in the UFC. If he can keep Brunson at range, I like “The Last Airbender” to win this fight.

Brunson will look to bounce back after being knocked out by Jacare in his last fight. Prior to that, Brunson scored back-to-back first-round finishes over Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida.

Brunson, who has power in both hands, will push forward and test Adesanya’s chin. At +250, he’s getting very good odds against a virtually untested fighter. The question you should be asking is ‘do I believe in Israel Adesanya?’. Brunson has only lost to the best in the UFC (Romero, Whittaker, Silva, Jacare).

As much as I like Adesanya, I’ve got to take the value here and bet Derek Brunson +250. He’ll have a 3” reach advantage, but Brunson will get in his face and cut the distance. He does have 14 first-round finishes, after all.