Last week’s UFC Fight Night lived up to our expectations, with more than one big finish. This Saturday, it may be the opposite as the UFC betting lines expect most of the fights to go to a decision. We’re not doubting it! Most of the fighters on deck are incredibly tough so we may instead see 15-minute or 25-minute wars and we are A-OK with that.
- Date: Saturday, April 30, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex
- Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and UFC Fight Night props. We’ve plenty of UFC predictions for you to consider.
UFC Fight Night Props
Meerschaert Drags Jotko to Deep Waters
The only fight expected to get finished is when Gerald Meerschaert fights Krzystof Jotko to open the main card. Meerschaert (34-14-0) has the most finishes in the division (eight) and 26 of his 34 pro wins have come via submission.
Jotko (23-5-0), however, is difficult to submit. He was guillotine choked in his second UFC bout in 2014 and hasn’t tapped since. His chin is quite frail but Meerschaert’s striking leaves much to be desire. It’s more likely that “GM3”, as an underdog, out grapples Jotko to a rare decision victory. We like our chances at 5-1 on the sportsbook.
Pick: G Meerschaert to Win by Decision or Tec. Decision +500
Connelly Outdamages “The Damage”
In a scrap between two of the sturdiest guys in the lightweight division, we like Tristan Connelly to edge Darren “The Damage” Elkins. In 25 UFC bouts, Elkins (26-10-0) has only finished four times and three of these came against championship-caliber fighters. Connelly (14-7-0) is not on that level.
While Elkins has won four of his last six fights by way of a finish, Connelly is also incredibly durable. He was able to withstand Michel Pereira, a welterweight contender, and pull off the upset. The Canadian is solid enough to deal with whatever Elkins will pull. Bet online on Connelly to edge the grizzled veteran at 3-1 odds.
Pick: T Connelly to Win by Decision or Tec. Decision +300
Arlovski Ekes out Another Decision
Andrei Arlovski enters his 56th pro fight and he still finds ways to win. You have to admire the Belarusian-American’s savvy as he knows how to play the scorecards. Arlovski’s (33-20-0, 2 NC) last eight wins have come via a decision and 13 of his last 15 have gone the distance. The only two fighters to finish him in this span are Tom Aspinall and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, two legitimate contenders.
Jake Collier is anything but a top-ranked heavyweight. Collier (13-6-0) is 5-5 in the promotion and all five of his victories have come against fighters already out of the UFC, with the exception of Chase Sherman who is 3-8 with the promotion and was cut twice. This bout reeks of another Arlovski decision and it is offered at plus-money making it the best UFC bet.
Pick: Arlovski to Win by Decision or Tec. Decision +125
Vera Finishes Font Late
The consensus for this main event tilt is that Rob Font will win the earlier rounds while Marlon Vera will rally in the later rounds. Ultimately, the betting odds favor a decision here as both fighters are tough – with Font (19-5-0) only having finished just once in his career and Vera (20-7-1), having never finished.
We are backing Vera to be the second fighter to finish Font. Vera gets stronger as the fight goes on and he is relentless. Also, Font missed weight, which could impact his overall endurance. That is a death knell against one of the most vicious dogs in the division.
Vera to win in Rounds 3 to 5 pays from 12-1 to 22-1. Feel free to take a shot at each or to take him to win by a finish at 3-1.