UFC Odds Favor Barcelos But…
Don’t blink with this one as Raoni Barcelos and Trevin Jones will not disappoint. The UFC knows what it’s doing in matching up hard-hitting strikers at bantamweight. While the UFC betting lines favor Barcelos by quite a bit, Jones has one dangerous thing going for him: power. He’s come from behind and pulled off an upset in the past.
Barcelos May Be Fading
Just over a year ago, Barcelos appeared to be one of the UFC’s most promising prospects. But consecutive losses (albeit one was controversial) and he seems destined for gatekeeping status. He can change that narrative with a spectacular win against Jones, who has also lost two straight fights.
Barcelos is already 35 years old, which could mean he is on the decline. He looked like a shell of himself against Victor Henry. Maybe it was just a one-off and Barcelos returns with a vengeance. He can ill-afford to be “washed” as he is dealing with a fighter who will look to take his head off.
If he puts it all together, Barcelos is rightfully favored per the online gambling lines. He has a better all-around game and has fought and beaten the better competition. However, if he looks worse for wear, he could eat one too many stiff punches and suffer his first knockout loss. He is a risky play at his price.
Jones Has Great Equalizer
Jones is not a good fighter by any stretch of the imagination. This isn’t a knock on him but moreso a fact. He absorbs five significant strikes per minute and lands 2.9 in comparison. Opponents have dominated him with a mix of grappling and striking. And even his biggest win, a knockout against Timur Valiev, was a fight he was losing.
TREVIN JONES WITH A STUNNING UPSET!
— UFC (@ufc) August 22, 2020
But Jones has that one enviable weapon in his arsenal: punching power. Don’t be fooled by his three career knockout wins (four had his win over Valiev not been overturned) as Jones can shut off anyone’s lights if he hits them cleanly.
The key for Jones will be to be more active. He has a penchant for hunting for that perfect shot and that won’t get it done against Barcelos, who tends to be active. Jones will also need to fend off takedowns, which he does at a 71 percent clip. If he can do all this, he may just be a sharp bet online.
Barcelos vs Jones Head-to-Head
Both Barcelos and Jones are the same size but Jones has a three-inch reach advantage. Jones is also a southpaw going against Barcelos’s orthodox style. Barcelos has beaten a southpaw striker in Carlos Huachin but he struggled against Henry’s switching stance.
Barcelos vs Jones Fight Information
- Fighters: Barcelos (16-3-0) vs Jones (13-8-0)
- Location: UFC APEX
- Day/Time: Saturday, Oct. 01, 6 p.m. ET
- Barcelos vs Jones Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
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Barcelos vs Jones Betting Lines
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Barcelos vs Jones Prediction
At their current odds, we’re siding with Jones to get this done. Instead of betting him straight, we think his knockout prop at +550 is the best UFC bet. Jones will either hurt Barcelos and finish him with strikes or Barcelos will edge him with his work rate. A striker-versus-striker contest could become a low-activity chess match. But not here.
Even if Jones will sit back on his punches, Barcelos is not the best defensive fighter. He’s absorbed over 5.14 significant strikes per minute. Against Henry, he absorbed 163 significant strikes from distance in a three-round fight. That may have just taken a chunk off his overall durability, which makes Jones the man to finish him.
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