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Beyond the Fights: Prop Bet Breakdown for UFC Vegas 92

Another week of octagon goodness is just around the corner, and I’ve researched the 12 scheduled bouts for UFC Vegas 92 to unpack the most noteworthy MMA props bets tonight.

The betting lines for UFC Fight Night are live; the tape study is complete, so let’s not waste any more time and jump into my perfect prop bets for this weekend’s cage action!

Beyond the Fights: Prop Bet Breakdown for UFC Vegas 92
In this UFC handout, Abus Magomedov of Russia-Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC/AFP

UFC Vegas 92 Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, May. 18, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
  • Main Event Bout: Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris
  • Scheduled Fights: 12
  • Biggest UFC Vegas 92 Betting Favorite: Tom Nolan @ -500
  • Biggest UFC Vegas 92 Betting Underdog: Victor Martinez @ +350

 

 

Can Abus Magomedov Overcome Skid Against Faded Warlley Alves?

Russia’s Abus Magomedov returns to the octagon with a two-fight losing streak, but how can you judge a man for losing to the former middleweight champ, Sean Strickland, and the undefeated prospect, Caio Borralho? You can’t…

Most notably, Abus gave fight fans an excellent performance in round one against Strickland. Now, whether it was the main event pressure or a failed control of cardio that saw him falter after the first, we don’t know, but one thing is certain: he’s a skilled fighter who’s more than capable of bettering his current 1-2 UFC record.

Once upon a time, Warlley Alves was viewed as a potential title contender of the future. He choked Colby Covington inside two minutes, but since that moment, the elite-level competition has been too much. Notably, losses to journeymen such as Nicolas Dalby, Bryan Barberena, and Randy Brown aren’t great looks, and aged 33; he presents several red flags at this stage of his career.

Here’s a look at some UFC 301 odds to consider!

Prop Bet 1: Magomedov by KO or Submission (-175)

Has Magomedov’s UFC tenure been a rough beginning? Sure… However, he can wrestle, he can strike, and he puts up the striking numbers as a fighter who unquestionably owns elite-level skills. Cardio has been a major concern, but fortunately for him, Alves isn’t a cardio machine that will capitalize on this downfall.

Ultimately, Abus has one issue: cardio, but Alves is the best matchmaking piece where the Russian may not have to worry about his gas tank. I expect the longer-framed man with greater striking skills to dominate Alves on the feet and dictate the pace in grounded situations if such a situation arises.

I don’t expect this fight to go all three rounds, and with Abus being the side, backing him to win by KO/TKO or submission feels like the spot. I’m not a huge fan of the -175 price tag, but it’s undoubtedly a prop spot I’m confident in, and it trumps the moneyline odds in terms of value.

Bet on UFC and secure the top UFC odds tonight!

 

  • Four of Alves’ seven UFC losses were by KO/TKO or submission.
  • Four of Alves’ five most recent UFC defeats were inside the distance.
  • Magomedov has won 20 of his 25 pro career bouts via KO/TKO or submission.

UFC Prospect Reboot: Tom Nolan vs Victor Martinez

Australia’s Tom Nolan made his UFC debut earlier this year and disappointed the masses. The man crashed as a -450 favorite to Nikolas Motta, as the hype train behind him was instantly derailed.

That said, I’m not screaming ‘fraud check’ from the rafters just yet. His regional scene fight tape is impressive, as is his impressive DWCS round-one dominance. He’s predominantly a striker who’s long for the lightweight division and can certainly use his length to his offensive striking advantage.

Victor Martinez is a tough S.O.B.; there’s no denying this, and he will always go out on his shield in defeat. However, much like Nolan, he faltered at the UFC level as a grappler; Jordan Leavitt managed to batter him to a TKO victory.

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Prop Bet 2: Under 1 ½ Rounds (-150)

Once again, the UFC odds are juiced in favor of Nolan, and after the Motta bout, yes, it’s a concern. Therefore, we stay clear, but the total set at under 1 ½ rounds is approachable.

We’re backing two up-and-coming fighters looking to make a statement by wagering on the total. That said, Nolan is on the side. He’s much larger (5 inches in height), faster, and it’s harder, and as a BJJ brown belt, we could see the first submission victory of his career.

Don’t expect this fight to go long. Nolan is no stranger to early stoppages (win or lose), and Martinez has seen over 1 ½ rounds in just one of his previous four pro-MMA bouts. Take the under at the BetUS sportsbook.

 

 

  • Martinez lost his UFC debut in round one
  • Nolan lost his UFC debut in round one
  • Martinez has gone the distance in just six of his 18 pro-MMA bouts
  • Four of Nolan’s previous five bouts ended in under 1 ½ rounds

Our Favorite UFC Vegas 92 Proposition Wagers

 

 

Questions Of The Day

What’s the UFC main event this weekend?


Live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy will compete in the main event for UFC Vegas 92.

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