Now vs Then
There is 12 years the difference between Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo and that could be the difference at UFC Fight Night.
Brown is the current -310 favorite at the sportsbook to beat the 44-year-old and it’s not surprising.
The Dern vs Yan Fight Night co-main event should be entertaining and we don’t see it going the distance.
Brown Riding Winning Streak
Brown hasn’t lost since fighting Vicente Luque in August 2020. He has since won three in a row against Alex Oliveira, Jared Gooden and Kalinn Williams.
The 32-year-old has the sizable reach advantage over Trinaldo, which is hugely important for strikers. He should be able to close the gap and pressure Trinaldo, whose latest knockout win came in 2020.
Brown has looked like the goods since arriving in the UFC, but it was a loss that we were most impressed with. He went the distance against Belal Muhammad, which isn’t easy to do.
That experience holds him in good stead and he has since knocked out the dangerous Bryan Barberena, so there is power in his hands and we could see that on Saturday.
He’s the -310 favorite at UFC betting markets and that’s a fair price. He’s the younger and more explosive fighter, so the betting confidence is warranted.
Trinaldo’s Win Count is Impressive
Being a 28-time winner shouldn’t be overlooked and, despite his age, Trinaldo always has a puncher’s chance.
The Brazilian scored a decision win over Danny Roberts at UFC 274 and that should give him confidence. It’s unlikely that he’ll be able to knock out Brown, who has a reach advantage, but he can outscore his opponents.
He also outscored Dwight Grant in 2021 and John Makdessi in 2020, so he’s not just looking for the knockout finish.
“I love these young kids coming up thinking that I’m old,” Trinaldo said earlier this year. “I enjoy more than anything in the world all these young kids coming up to me, fighting me, thinking I’m old, and I’m proving them wrong every single time.
“Nothing makes me happier than beating people up. That’s how I make my living. That’s who I am. Nothing brings a bigger smile to my face than beating people up here in the octagon.”
Trinaldo is the +230 underdog with betting online markets, which could attract some betting attention late.
Brown vs Trinaldo Head-to-Head
It’s the first fight between Brown and Trinaldo.
Brown vs Trinaldo Fight Information
- Game: Brown (15-4) vs Trinaldo (28-8)
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Day/Time: Saturday, Oct. 1, 4 p.m. ET
- Brown vs Trinaldo Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Take a Look at These Other 2 UFC Special Articles
- Castaneda vs Santos Prediction, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks
- Barcelos vs Jones Prediction, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks
Brown vs Trinaldo Betting Lines
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Brown vs Trinaldo Prediction
We can’t look past the youth, reach and power edge for Brown, who is the -310 favorite for a reason.
Bettors could look for more value with exotic markets but we think taking the -310 is the way to go.
Include Brown in UFC parlay bets as we see him improving his record to 16-4.