A pair of welterweight contenders meet in UFC 283’s featured bout as Gilbert “Durinho” Burns takes on Neil Magny. According to the UFC lines, Burns should dominate Magny as he is one of the card’s largest favorites. He is coming off a loss to Khamzat Chimaev though he made the seemingly invincible star look human. As for Magny, he is still dangerous despite being past his prime.
Magny Can Still Pose a Threat
Magny keeps his place in the UFC’s welterweight rankings by beating some fringe top-15 fighters like Daniel Rodriguez and Max Griffin. And while he’s consistently fallen short against the top 10, he’s still good enough to pull off upsets.
In fact, Magny is 8-6 as an underdog in the UFC. He’s profitable on the online sports betting lines and his most notable upset came over current top-10 fighter Geoff Neal back in 2021. Magny will always have his size and reach advantage at 6’3” and 80 inches, respectively.
However, that lanky frame can also work against Magny as short stocky fighters have taken him down and submitted him. While Magny has many submission victories of his own, four of his losses in the UFC have come via the same way. He typically struggles against top-tier Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) fighters hence why he’s a large underdog here.
Will Burns Make This Look Easy?
It’s not often a fighter’s stock rises from a loss. But that’s what happened when Burns took Chimaev to a close decision last April. It was a riveting performance from the Brazilian who knocked Chimaev down and out grappled him in some situations. And he’s had plenty of rest to recover and get back on the drawing board.
⚔️ Burns est l’adversaire qui aura donné le plus de fil à retordre au monstre Chimaev. Une véritable guerre de 3 rounds !
🇧🇷 Le Brésilien est de retour face à Magny à l’#UFC283 au Brésil… et ça va être une dinguerie !
📺 Dimanche à 4h sur RMC Sport 2pic.twitter.com/F6mjCIi9RW
— RMC Sport Combat (@RMCSportCombat) January 17, 2023
Going against Magny, this is expected to be a visible step down in competition for Burns. The UFC along with folks betting online expect Burns to dust Magny as a “tune-up fight” of sorts. A finish for Burns will likely get him back to the title picture.
But as good as Burns is, he’s still hittable and has been hurt by straight punches. That’s how Kamaru Usman finished him in their title fight. If Magny has an edge here, it’s his straight shots that can cause Burns issues. Otherwise, the Brazilian should roll.
Burns vs Magny Head-to-Head
Magny is the taller and longer fighter here by quite a bit. He has taller by five inches and has a longer reach by nine inches. Both are around the same age and 3-2 in their last five fights. They both strike in the orthodox stance.
Burns vs Magny Fight Information
- Fighters: Burns (20-5-0) vs Magny (27-9-0)
- Location: Jeunesse Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Day/Time: Saturday, Jan. 21, 10 p.m. ET
- Burns vs Magny Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Burns vs Magny Betting Lines
Burns vs Magny Picks & Prediction
At the current lines, we’d recommend putting Burns in a parlay. Alternatively, betting him to win by TKO or submission at +110 could be the best UFC bet here. While he is giving up a lot in size, he can use his stocky frame to get Magny to the ground. Once it’s there, Burns should exploit Magny with his superior BJJ.
Gilbert Burns is listed at -475 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Burns, you can win $21. Neil Magny is +350, offering a chance to win $350 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Burns an 82.61% chance to win, with Magny at 22.22%.