Burns vs Morales Prediction and Best Bet for May 17: UFC Vegas 106 Betting Breakdown

It’s a commonplace for UFC fans to complain about fight cards held in the Apex Center. Still, for once, Dana White and the matchmakers have delivered an epic schedule set for the small cage in Vegas, and the non-title main event involving Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales is just one of several bangers we can look forward to.

Naturally, as the resident MMA expert at BetUS, I’m back to dissect Saturday’s headline from a betting perspective. With countless hours of study, here are my thoughts on how to attack the UFC fight night odds this weekend.

Vegas, it’s been a minute 👀@GilbertDurinho vs Michael Morales

[ LIVE on ESPN+ | 4pmET | #UFCVegas106 ] pic.twitter.com/Pfh494qakR

— UFC (@ufc) May 12, 2025

Burns vs Morales: The Tale of The Tape

Burns vs Morales Betting Preview

Will Burns Pass the Torch or Put It Out?

There’s much to be said about undefeated fighters in 2025, as several upcoming, unbeaten top contenders have lost their 0s. Next up is Michael Morales, but can the 17-0 fighter with a 5-fight win streak in the UFC overcome his toughest test to date?

Gilbert ‘Durinho’ Burns is 13 years older than Morales; he’s on a three-fight losing streak, and at 38, father time talks are creeping in. But here’s the kicker: the Brazilian menace has double the pro-MMA experience of his weekend opponent with 30 pro bouts, and over three times the UFC experience with a decade spent fighting under the UFC banner.

Not forgetting, Burns’ recent losses have been against the current champ, Della Maddalena, former champion Belal Muhammad, and two men who’re arguably next in line for title fights over the next twelve months, Sean Brady and Khamzat Chimaev.

More to the point, Burns, even in defeat, has never looked finished, so to speak. He’s no spring chicken, but even in his KO loss to the newly crowned champ JDM, he was winning the fight until he wasn’t, and only top-notch wrestlers have been able to prevent his takedowns and ground control.

Does Morales Have the Wrestling Defense?

The only question we should ask heading into UFC Vegas 106 is whether or not Morales has the takedown defense capable of keeping this fight on the feet to succeed in the best UFC bets tonight. Unfortunately, it’s a guessing game because he doesn’t have the sample size of competing against wrestlers to compare.

So, Burns, despite being known for his world-class BJJ, is also a top-notch wrestler and will undoubtedly be the best wrestler Morales has faced to date. Not to mention, Burns is a proven five-round fighter also with knockout power, while we’ve never seen Morales go beyond the third.

That said, the Ecuadorian is such a precise and dynamic striker. He’s gone the distance in just 4 of his 15 fights to date, and that’s predominantly thanks to the brutal power and accuracy in his hands. In combination with an 8-inch reach and 2-inch height advantage, as well as the youth and speed factor, he could be a serious problem for Burns, and, in turn, those backing the dog on UFC picks and parlays, should this fight remain on the feet.

Burns vs Morales Betting Trends

• Morales has won all 17 of his pro-MMA bouts
• Burns is riding a 3-fight losing streak
• Burns’ last win was against the retired Jorge Masvidal
• Morales has won 13 of his 17 pro bouts inside the distance

Burns vs Morales Prediction and Best Bet

My head is telling me Burns, purely based on the lack of evidence we have on Morales, but my heart is telling me a serious, new contender at 170 lbs is on the up in UFC news.

After following my head with Belal last week, that didn’t turn out so great for MMA picks, and although the +535 on Burns is a ridiculous price, I’m struggling not to envision this fight ending badly for the Brazilian legend.

Considering his losing streak and age, Morales might be fighting Burns at the perfect time. Also, despite his athletic abilities and size advantages, this youngster has looked so cool, calm, and collected in the octagon that I don’t believe that he’ll overreact to the dangerous situations he may be placed in.

With a gameplan that should see him stay at range, and avoid grappling traps, I expect Morales to piece Burns up with his beautiful jabs and leg kicks, before the veteran is forced to enter the danger zone where the younger, faster, and incredible powerful prospect will put his mark on the division with a knockout finish reminiscent of what JDM achieved.

Bet This Pick: Morales by KO/TKO (-150)

UFC Vegas 106 How To Watch

• Date & Time: Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 04:00 p.m. ET
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
• Co-Main Event Bout: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
• Moneyline Probability: Burns – 15.6% (+535) Morales – 89.2% (-820)

Find the best UFC odds at BetUS

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