Erosa Looking to Erase Caceres
Most of the early betting action has come for Julian Erosa, who is the more experienced featherweight in Friday’s matchup at UFC Fight Night.
He faces the dangerous Alex Caceres, who might be the UFC betting underdog, but he’s good enough to pull off the upset on Saturday.
He lost to Sodiq Yusuff in March, but prior to that, he had scored five consecutive wins against the likes of Chase Hooper and Seung-Woo Choi.
There is little wrong with that form and the Floridian, despite being 34 years old, is good enough to win and keep his UFC contract in good stead.
Caceres competed on The Ultimate Fighter in 2010 and has been a prominent fixture in the UFC since. He showed confidence during his win streak and he could get back to that form.
“I can’t stress it enough; saying you believe in yourself is easy to say but it’s hard to do,” Caceres told UFC.com in March. “It started at my fight in Singapore [a 2017 TKO win over Roland Delorme] and since then that belief started coming in flashes.
“In the past five camps I’ve been feeling that consistently. I’ve been rising to the level consistently, and there is no goal or end point for me.”
If he can put his recent loss behind him, Erosa is in trouble.
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Erosa Seeking Fourth Straight
Erosa has looked like the goods in winning his last three fights, including a decision win over Hakeem Dawodu at UFC 279.
Having experience fighting at a big event could be key for the betting online favorite, who hasn’t lost since being knocked out by Seung-Woo Choi last year. However, Caceres scored a win over Choi, so Erosa’s record could look better than it is.
Erosa bounced back nicely since but to bet on a -165 fighter, we would need more confidence that he can come up with the goods. Erosa has 10 losses in his career, including multiple losses by knockout, which is a concern.
The 33-year-old isn’t getting younger and he needs to avoid a dangerous Caceres, who has power and can submit opponents as well.
Caceres vs Erosa Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between Caceres vs Erosa.
Caceres vs Erosa Fight Information
- Fighters: Caceres (19-13) vs Erosa (28-10)
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Day/Time: Saturday, Dec 17, 7 p.m. ET
- Caceres vs Erosa Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
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Caceres vs Erosa Betting Lines
Caceres vs Erosa Picks & Prediction
There is no doubting Erosa’s winning streak, but the value is with Caceres at the better odds.
He might have 13 losses on his record, but he has fought tough opponents and we would have priced him at -115.
Take the +135 as there have been many upset results in the UFC lately.
Erosa is listed at -165 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Erosa, you have a chance to win $61. Caceres is +135, offering a chance to win $135 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Erosa a 62.26% chance to win, with Caceres at 42.55%. Bet on UFC Right Away!