Chandler vs Oliveira UFC Picks: Bet This Fight to Finish Early 11/16

Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic might be headlining the card, but “Do Bronx” versus Chandler is the people’s main event, and for the people, I’m back to share my expertise on this upcoming banger, including my best UFC pick, analysis, and everything in between.

Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler run it back at #UFC309 in NYC: who ya got? 💪

Saturday, 10 PM ET | ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/cQcgbsDJqy pic.twitter.com/fl8Y93Nl8W

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 11, 2024

UFC 309 Event Information

• Date & Time: Saturday, November. 16, 2024 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Madison Square Garden
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass & ESPN+
• Main Event Bout: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
• Co-Main Event Bout: Michael Chandler vs Charles Oliveira
• Moneyline Probability: Jones – 87.5% (-650) Miocic – 18.2% (+425)

UFC 309 Chandler vs Oliveira Betting Preview

Michael Chandler: The Wait for McGregor Is Over

Just like waiting for the most beautiful girl in high school to break up with her annoying jock boyfriend, Michael Chandler should’ve known better than to put himself on the sidelines for so many years.

The former Bellator champ, unfortunately, had a thirst for that red panty night with Conor McGregor, and over 24 months later, with multiple fall-throughs, “The Notorious” fight is off the table (For now, at least), and “Iron” looks to an old foe to brush off his cage rust.

Fighting the always-dangerous Charles Oliveira probably isn’t the best option if you want to get active again. Still, it’s been the story of Chandler’s career: he wants to fight the best and prove he belongs, despite this choice handing him a 2-3 negative UFC record thus far.

Michael Chandler enjoyed his time off and has absolutely 0 regrets waiting for Conor McGregor for 2 years. 😤

🎥: @mighty#UFC309 #UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/PH5D4HMKBV

— BlockPicks (@BlockPicksGG) November 12, 2024

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira: Reclaiming the Aura

Little introduction is needed for one of the lightweight division’s most domineering stars, but we’ll give him one anyway. Since making his UFC debut in 2010 – yes, 14 years ago -this Brazilian native has competed in an eye-watering 33 fights. He has been an excellent UFC expert pick, finishing 16 opponents by submission, knocking out another four, holding championship gold, and being entangled in some of the most exciting fights in company history.

On the topic of 155lb gold, his UFC 309 foe, Chandler, stood toe-to-toe with him for the vacant lightweight strap back at UFC 262. The fight resulted in a cliché Oliveira moment in which he fought back from adversity to collect a stoppage win after nearly being stopped himself.

“Do Bronx” has a to-riches story worthy of television, but more importantly, he’s an absolute savage when the cage door closes. You know you’re in for a treat when a man holds the record for most post-fight bonuses in UFC history (19) and most finishes in UFC history (20). Although Saturday’s contest does present a déjà vu feeling, it’s a ‘run it back’ moment we welcome with open arms, or should I say, closed fists!

Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler brought the intensity in their first fight 👊🔥

Who will win in their rematch at #UFC309? 👀 pic.twitter.com/T4fAAhtGPX

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) November 10, 2024

 

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Chandler vs Oliveira: The Tale of The Tape

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Chandler vs Oliveira Inside the Octagon

Do Bronx: He’s Got Hands & BJJ

We used to describe Charles Oliveira as a BJJ whizz whose primary path to victory fell back on his grappling prowess. That isn’t the case anymore, especially after we’ve seen him throw down with some seriously powerful strikers and hold his own.

Now, durability. We must address it, and the chin of “Do Bronx” needs to be examined under a microscope. Take the first fight with Chandler, for example; we’re still confused about how he took several shots to the chin, crumpled to the ground, and managed to survive. In fact, he hasn’t been knocked out since 2017, when Paul Felder laced him up with some ground and pound, and in a rare instance where most fighters’ chins begin to fade, you could argue Oliviera’s has strengthened.

Of course, his chin is supported by the heart of the lion. As a versatile martial artist who can wrestle, submit, and throw hands, one has to agree with the UFC odds that he is a favorite. However, the steepness of said price presents some question marks when you consider how close Chandler came to stopping him last time.

So nice we had to see it twice 😍

Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler run it back in New York City 🔥#UFC309 | Nov 16 | LIVE on TNT Sports Box Office pic.twitter.com/6lqWaOcypb

— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) November 7, 2024

Iron: All or Nothing

Say what you will about Michael Chandler, but you cannot discredit this guy’s heart, determination, and willingness to leave it all in the octagon. He’s going to go out on his shield each and every time, and while that has cost him in three of his previous four appearances, it also makes him a danger in the octagon for those opposed to him.

So, what advantages does he hold over “Do Bronx”? Strength, explosiveness, and wrestling are what we would’ve said before the first fight. All but one were true, and surprisingly, we watched Oliveira shoot a beautiful blast double leg takedown while Chandler attacked the guillotine… I know, crazy; the wrestler in Chandler was playing jiu-jitsu while the BJJ ace was playing wrestler.

I don’t expect the game plan to involve wrestling, and to avoid gassing out like he did in the first fight, I wouldn’t anticipate Chandler wanting to exchange in grappling situations. He’ll likely attack on the feet, where he found success before, and hunt for the knockout that evaded him by one or two significant blows in the first fight.

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler (2021)

📸 @ufc pic.twitter.com/1LOdfKMGWu

— Fight Pics That Go Hard (@fightpicsgohard) August 4, 2023

Oliveira vs Chandler Betting Trends

• Under 1 ½ rounds landed in the first Oliviera vs. Chandler fight
• Oliveira has gone the distance in just 1 of his previous 6 UFC bouts
• Chandler has seen under 1 ½ rounds in 6 of his previous 8 pro-MMA bouts
• Chandler has gone the distance in just 1 of his UFC bouts

Oliveira vs Chandler UFC Prediction

Based on the mayhem Oliveira vs Chandler I presented, we cannot sit here and say that the former deserves a-245 UFC betting line. This price suggests that if these two fought on ten occasions, Oliveira would win 7 of those contests, and I honestly beg to differ. Would I place him as the favorite? Yes, but the juice doesn’t match the madness of what happened last time, and I equally cannot trust Chandler, whose explosiveness has historically faded after going all out.

There is one factor we can wager on that’s highly likely: chaos! With chaos, fights open up to a knockout or submission at any moment, thus making the under 1 ½ rounds feel like a safer play than coin flipping on the ML.

The betting trends above point to this fight ending in the distance. The first fight ended within 19 seconds of the second round and came close to ending multiple times in the first round. Combine these factors with the nature of these two warriors, and it will deliver a similar situation where the under cashes at BetUS Sportsbook.

Bet This Pick: Chandler vs Oliveira Under 1 ½ Rounds (-115)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

Take A Look At These Other 2 UFC Betting Picks Articles:

• UFC 309 Predictions: Best Betting Picks for Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic 11/16
• Paul Craig vs Bo Nickal UFC Picks: Bet Nickal to Win by KO/TKO 11/16

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