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Chimaev vs Diaz Predictions, Fight Preview, Live Stream, Odds & Picks

Betting Lines Going Haywire With Chimaev-Diaz

UFC Odds Counting Diaz Out Against Chimaev

If you believe current UFC betting lines, the most lopsided UFC main event in the last four years is here. Unbeaten Khamzat Chimaev is expected to demolish Nate Diaz, the latter’s final fight on his contract. Either Chimaev sends Diaz away limping Saturday evening, or the fan-favorite miraculously hands the UFC’s fastest-rising star his first loss as a pro.

Check the latest UFC picks, stats, injury reports, and UFC 279 odds for Chimaev vs Diaz. There are plenty of UFC predictions for you to consider.

Nate Diaz UFC
Nate Diaz - Esther Lin, MMA Fighting

Chimaev In Any Way He Pleases, But…

…he can ill-afford to get as reckless as he did against Gilbert Burns. Chimaev defeated the former title challenger in one of the most intense UFC fights in 2022 to date. Chimaev did prevail as a sizable favorite in the wagering, but his backers were sweating more than once. Beating a top-three fighter with little-to-no strategy shows the ability of the Caucasian fighter.

Against Diaz, Chimaev is taking a big step down on paper. This is more of a “money fight” for Chimaev, who will likely get a title shot should he win. If he can ragdoll a beast like Li Jingliang, he will toss Diaz around with ease.

While on his feet, Chimaev is able to finish 185-pound fighters with one punch. Diaz may have the best chin in MMA, but Chimaev could become the first fighter to put him out cold. It’s no surprise the online sports betting lines have pushed Chimaev to such an unbeatable price.

Diaz Has That “X-Factor”

In Diaz’s 15-year UFC career, this will be the largest price as an underdog. This is also the ninth straight time Diaz isn’t favored. In fact, Diaz has been an underdog in 11 of his last dozen. He’s going 6-5 in that span. while his backers would be over six units ahead.

What makes Diaz so tough, despite the odds, is a bottomless gas tank and a nigh-invincible chin. Spending 24 minutes of a fight being clobbered (as he did against Leon Edwards), and still finding a way to hurt his opponent.

Against Conor McGregor, as a +350 underdog, Diaz ate everything McGregor threw at him, then submitted him when McGregor exhausted himself. He doesn’t hit that hard, but his punches still sting. While on the mat, 11 submission wins. Bet online against Diaz at your own risk here.

Chimaev vs Diaz Head-to-Head

Chimaev and Diaz are similar in frame: Chimaev is taller by two inches, but Diaz has a one-inch advantage in reach. However, Chimaev is bulkier than Diaz, as he can fight at 185 pounds while Diaz has fought at 155 for much of his career. Chimaev is also younger by nine years, while Diaz has three times the experience as a pro.

Chimaev vs Diaz Fight Information

  • Fighters: Chimaev (11-0-0) vs Diaz (20-13-0)
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
  • Day/Time: Saturday, Sept. 10th, 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Chimaev vs Diaz Live stream: UFC Fight Pass

Chimaev vs Diaz Betting Lines

Team Moneyline Total
Nate Diaz +800 1½  -155o
Khamzat Chimaev -1800 1½  +125u

Chimaev vs Diaz Prediction

Chimaev is taken to run through Diaz. Even if Diaz arrives in top shape (hard to predict for a Diaz brother), he’d still face several disadvantages here. However, Diaz ought to be dangerous for all 25 minutes of this fight, whether on his feet or with his back on the mat.

It’s still plausible that despite these odds, Diaz may find a way to lock submission on Chimaev, even hurt him when he’s starting to gas. However, Chimaev should find a better way to pace himself here, especially in a five-round fight. We can’t find any value in Chimaev’s price, and likely to post about Diaz stunning by a hail-mary submission as the best UFC bet.


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