The UFC knows what it’s doing in pairing Paul Craig and Johnny Walker. As the total on the online sportsbook suggests, this one could be a quick one as both fighters have a penchant for early finishes. The UFC odds also posit Walker as the favorite by quite a bit. Either way, color us surprised if this one sees the final round.
Let’s check the latest UFC news, stats, and UFC lines for Craig vs Walker. We’ve plenty of UFC picks for you to consider.
Kicking off our #UFC283 main card!
🏴 @PaulCraig vs @JohnnyWalker 🇧🇷 has fireworks all over it this Saturday!! pic.twitter.com/pa8PfOCr3x
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) January 18, 2023
Walker Worth the Price of Admission
Walker may not be the title contender he was prophesied to be. But at least he still puts on a show whether he’s the one finishing the opponent or the one being knocked out. The Brazilian is a dynamic fighter and can end fights in creative ways whether it’s via flying knees or spinning elbows.
The biggest flaw for Walker is his lack of durability. One clean shot can put him out of his feet as saw in the Jamahal Hill fight. But only the top-tier of fighters can run through Walker. Hill is fighting in the main event for the title. Corey Anderson, who was the first to TKO him in the UFC, was this close to becoming Bellator champion.
That’s why Walker’s fights tend to end in a finish as you can see when betting online. The key for him is to finish Craig before Craig can build any momentum to expose his fragility.
Craig Must Make this a BJJ Match
For Craig, the path to victory is clear but not easy to achieve: get Walker to the mat and out-grapple him. All eight of Craig’s victories in the octagon have come via a finish – mostly submissions with his two TKOs being just technicalities. He even owns a win over Hill, whose arm he broke.
But on the flip side, all four of his five losses also came via a finish. Craig either finishes his opponent or gets finished. He’s the underdog because he has poor wrestling and he’ll need it to get Walker to the ground. He lands 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes but at a 20 percent accuracy.
And in terms of his striking, Craig is slow. He lands just 2.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.79 in return. Many explosive strikers like Alonzo Menifield and Khalil Rountree made short work of him. As such, betting the under on the totals may be the best UFC bet in regards to the “Bear Jew.”
Craig vs Walker Head-to-Head
Walker will have a size advantage over Craig. The Brazilian is three inches taller with a six-inch reach advantage. He is also five years Craig’s junior. They both strike in the orthodox stance.
Craig vs Walker Fight Information
- Fighters: Craig (16-5-1) vs Walker (19-7-0)
- Location: Jeunesse Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Day/Time: Saturday, Jan. 21, 10 p.m. ET
- Craig vs Walker Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Craig vs Walker Betting Lines
Craig vs Walker Picks & Prediction
As we alluded to above, the bet here is for the total to go under 1½ rounds. Both Walker and Craig waste no time in winning this fight. Walker should blitz Craig and knock him out quickly. On the flip side, Craig could also “catch” Walker, hurt him, and submit him. Either is possible.
Johnny Walker is listed at -200 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Walker, you can win $50. Paul Craig is +160, offering a chance to win $160 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Walker a 66.67% chance to win, with Craig at 38.46%.
