Ditch your beer for a coffee as we may have a snoozer here when the enigmatic Kyle Daukaus faces the scrappy Jamie Pickett. We’re not sugarcoating this one: It will be boring. But who cares so long as Daukaus, the favorite on the UFC betting lines, cashes the bet easily?
- Date: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV,
- Watch on: ESPN+
Kyle Daukaus vs Jamie Pickett
- Weight Class: Catchweight (195)
- Rounds: Three
- Moneyline: Jamie Pickett +210, Kyle Daukaus -280
- Totals: Over 2½ (-175o), Under 2½ (+145u)
Jamie Pickett finds himself in the co-main event after replacing Julian Marquez. No offense to the 33-year-old, but his style can only be described as “neutral” as he is the type of fighter to win a bout by making his opponent … not fight. Against Daukaus, though, he’s taking on a prospect who packs plenty of heat and can unload on him.
Pickett Loves the Cage
Jamie Pickett may have been influenced by his own name as he loves to utilize the cage. Pickett (13-6-0) has won two straight fights mostly by neutralizing his opponents with the tried-and-true approach: pushing them up against the cage. At 6-foot-2 with an 80-inch reach, Pickett is large for the division and he uses it to his advantage.
However, this style has limited effectiveness and once Pickett has a hard time rubbing up on his opponent, he will be on the losing end. While durable, Pickett is also hittable and has not fought enough wrestlers to test out his defensive wrestling.
Even more damning to his style is his inactivity. Pickett lands just over three significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.2 in return. He isn’t fast, either, and will get beaten to the punch against the smaller more agile opponents. For him to continue cashing bets online, he’ll just have to keep his opponents … on the fence.
How Good is Daukaus?
Four fights into his UFC career and we may not yet know how good Daukus can be. Undefeated prior to entering the UFC, Daukaus (10-2-0, 1 NC) had a tough assignment as a late replacement versus Brendan Allen for his debut. He alternated wins and losses before an accidental clash of heads ruled his last bout a “No Contest.”
Kyle Daukaus and Kevin Holland will be running it right back.
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 5, 2021
What Daukaus brings to the table is a versatile skill set. He has fast hands, is a crisp striker and is an ace on the mat along with his brother Chris. However, his wrestling leaves plenty to be desired and he struggled to take Kevin Holland down. At just 27 percent, he could sharpen his wrestling.
But from what we’ve seen in his last fight with Holland, Daukaus has flashed the potential to be a contender, especially with a brother who is also doing well despite his recent KO loss.
Daukaus vs Pickett: Who Wins?
We’re not so crazy about Daukaus’ online sports betting line. If he climbs any higher than where he is, it may be better to skip betting this or to switch to Pickett. However, Pickett is fighting on short notice and does not have many advantages to this fight other than being a bit bigger and longer.
Daukaus should be able to keep Pickett from “hugging” him for too long and can keep the fight at striking range. Once it’s there, he should be able to outstrike Pickett due to being a faster and more accurate striker. He should win a fairly straightforward, albeit unexciting fight.
Pick: Kyle Daukaus -280
A possible better UFC bet here is to take the over 2½ rounds. Neither Daukaus nor Pickett are power punchers and we don’t foresee a submission here. This one is going to the judges.