UFC Lines Favor Dern To Extend Yan’s Skid
Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan are two of the UFC’s young contenders. However, they’ve been derailed repeatedly and must now beat each other to prove they are still worthy of a future title shot. The UFC betting odds favor Dern to be the victor here as the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace looks to exploit Yan’s weakness on the ground.
Dern Remains A Work In Progress
Before entering the UFC, Dern was the golden girl of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The Brazilian-American has a stacked collection of gold medals from multiple world tournaments such as the ADCC World Championship and the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship. When she transitioned to MMA, she was submitting fighters like Ronda Rousey. Seven of her 12 wins came via this method.
However, unlike Rousey, Dern can struggle to get fighters to where she wants them. A lot of this has to do with Dern’s lack of wrestling. She averages only 0.46 takedowns per 15 minutes at a nine percent rate. In her two losses against Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas, she went 1-of-14 on her takedown attempts.
If Dern wants to realize her potential as the UFC’s next big star, she’ll need to find ways to assert her grappling over her opponents. You can expect Dern to have even more steamed lines on the online sportsbook if she does.
Yan Must Improve on Grappling
On the other side, Yan must make up for her lack of grappling defense. The striker actually has some wrestling as she averages one takedown per 15-minute average at a 66 percent rate. However, as Carla Esparza exposed, Yan has nothing to offer once she’s on the receiving end of it.
Yan has a 65 percent takedown defense and has stuffed the likes of Claudia Gadelha and Kailin Curran. The win over Gadelha is legitimate even if she was on her way out. But keeping Dern off of her for five rounds is another task in itself.
Even harder for Yan is her lack of power. She lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute but has zero finishes and knockdowns. While she tends to be the sharper striker in the fight, a more aggressive or potent fighter can outperform her. Yan will need to put on a clinic to be worth betting online.
Dern vs Xiaonan Head-to-Head
It’s eerie how similar Dern and Yan are in terms of their records and physical stats. Both have two losses in the UFC and share one against Rodriguez. Dern and Yan also train out of California and in terms of size, they are virtually the same (Yan is one inch taller). The biggest disparity is in age: Yan is four years older than Dern (33 to 29).
Dern vs Xiaonan Fight Information
- Fighters: Dern (12-2-0) vs Xiaonan (15-3-0)
- Location: UFC APEX
- Day/Time: Saturday, Oct. 01, 6 p.m. ET
- Dern vs Xiaonan Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Dern vs Xiaonan Betting Lines
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Dern vs Xiaonan Prediction
The line seems too wide on Dern here but she is the rightful favorite. Dern tends to be favored in the sportsbook, even in her two losses. However, Yan’s weakness in grappling makes it more difficult for her to upset Dern. Rodriguez had improved on that aspect and Ribas is a solid grappler herself.
Dern should find a way to get Yan to the mat. It may be a close fight for as long as it goes. The favorite will win rounds when she ties Yan up and puts her in danger. A late finish is also plausible and that could be the best UFC bet via the props market.