Dvalishvili vs O’Malley Prediction and Picks: Complete Betting Breakdown for UFC 316

There has been a persistent feeling among the MMA community that 2025 has been a lackluster year for the sport, and for Dana White and the UFC, a notable absence of star power has undoubtedly been noticeable during the first six months. Fortunately, one of the promotion’s biggest names will have his shot at redemption this weekend, with ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley returning from a nine-month layoff to face the savage that dethroned him as champ, Merab Dvalishvili.

UFC 316, live from Newark, New Jersey, presents a stacked pay-per-view card the fans are desperately in need of. However, whether it will live up to the hype is yet to be seen, but at least we can make some money with the analysis and best UFC bets tonight I’ve put together!

Rematch on their minds 💥@SugaSeanMMA & @MerabDvalishvil are ready to run it back this weekend at #UFC316 👀 pic.twitter.com/BD6HFGzyFr

— UFC (@ufc) June 2, 2025

Dvalishvili vs O’Malley II: The Tale of The Tape

Inside the Octagon: Skillset Breakdown and Betting Preview

Was the Leg Injury a Factor?

They say rematches are some of the easiest fights to handicap based on the fact that we have the perfect tape to study, but let’s be honest, this is the UFC, and if you’ve ever watched the quadruplet of Moreno/Figueiredo battles, you cannot always rely on lightning striking twice.

So, with Sean O’Malley facing the man who took his bantamweight strap, should we expect similar results?

Yes, and no. First, this is Merab we’re talking about. The Georgian savage who has won 12 straight fights in the UFC by utilizing the same, if not an almost identical, game plan. The game plan? Well, it’s quite simple: wrestle, pressure, wrestler, and overwhelm. O’Malley, most known for his long-distance striking and sniper-like reflexes, was limited to just over 40 significant strikes landed across 25 minutes in their first clash at UFC 306, and if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.

We should anticipate Merab coming out with the exact same game plan. And while Suga has been sidelined, he has since defeated Umar Nurmagomedov, further boosting his confidence. However, with O’Malley’s leg injury being a factor in the first fight, and him having the surgery to correct it, could we see a more robust wrestling defense from the bright-haired UFC star?

It’s possible, and with such a notable height and reach advantage for the former champion, we know he’s capable of delivering fight-ending moments versus the less seasoned striker in Merab. Unfortunately, it’s a lot easier said than done, and there’s a reason why the UFC fight odds aren’t as wide as some anticipated.

He is looking to become the champion once again! @SugaSean is on the hunt for bantamweight gold this weekend at #UFC316 👀

[ LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET | 📺 https://t.co/LXLnIaq4aS ] pic.twitter.com/eUWmHx1QTY

— UFC (@ufc) June 2, 2025

It’s Time for a Shock

Do you remember when O’Malley kept his distance, circled the octagon, and feinted his way to forcing Aljamain Sterling into the pocket before a knockout shot saw him shock the world? Well, I have a funny feeling that the same thing could happen this weekend.

My expectations aren’t solely based on skill and experience because Merab’s wrestling, alongside the level of competition he’s faced, is the superior outlier in this bout. However, I have a gut feeling that just like the Sterling fight, Suga will find a way to land the kill shot, and finally, some hype in UFC news today will be restored.

Merab is an absolute savage, but he isn’t perfect. O’Malley and his team will have studied those imperfections since the first loss, and there’s a reason why they’re so eager for the rematch. Couple this with a completely healthy version of Suga, and a varied striking offense that could put any 135er out on any given night, a shock victory inside the octagon, which we haven’t witnessed for some time now, could very well surface on Saturday night.

Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 Best Bet: O’Malley (+222)

I could look like a fool for selecting O’Malley as one of my UFC expert picks a second time around versus such a great talent in Merab. Still, this rematch could give a total of 50 minutes (25 minutes from the first fight) of cage time for Suga with the defending champ, and given how talented his striking game and that it only takes one, just the experience of fighting this wrestling savant should give the challenger more of a chance at victory this time around.

Call me a sucker for plus-money UFC predictions or an O’Malley fan boy (which I’m not), but come Saturday, put some respect on my name when Suga leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Merab backers.

Bet on Sean O’Malley’s Moneyline at +222 odds

UFC 316 How to Watch

• Date and Time: Saturday, June 7, 2025 – 06:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
• How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass
• Main Event Bout: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2
• Co-Main Event Bout: Juliana Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
• Moneyline Probability: Merab 72.2% (-260) O’Malley – 31.8% (+214)

Find the latest UFC betting news here.

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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