Elkins Eyes Upset on UFC Main Card

UFC Fight Night featuring Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus is set to go off on Saturday and there are some great main card fights.

Stephen Thompson vs Belal Muhammad is a highlight fight on the main card, which kicks off with Darren Elkins vs Cub Swanson.

The experienced fighters should set the scene and UFC betting markets are available for every fight.

Darren Elkins vs Cub Swanson

Most of the early money has come for Cub Swanson at -200, but bettors get value with Darren Elkins at +160.

They each have 27 wins but with consecutive wins under his belt, we’re going with Elkins to land the upset.

The 37-year-old knocked out Darrick Minner in July, which put him back in contention for big featherweight fights. It followed a submission win over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri, so he’s heading in the right direction.

Swanson has been fighting slightly better opponents, including Giga Chikadze and Daniel Pineda. However, he lasted only 1:03 against Chikadze at UFC Fight Night in May, so it’s not a good betting guide.

We respect Swanson as he’s a legend of the sport, but Elkins can land big blows. The Sportsbook is offering generous odds and they’re too good to pass up.

Pick: Darren Elkins +160

Carlos Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Gamrot

There has also been a lot of money for Mateusz Gamrot, but it looks well-placed with the 31-year-old.

The Polish fighter is 19-1-0 after submitting the always-tough Jeremy Stephens in the opening round in July. It was his third UFC fight and he’s looking to improve on his 2-1 record in the organization.

He lost his first fight to Guram Kutateladze in 2020, but he showed great maturity when finishing Scott Holtzman earlier this year.

Carlos Diego Ferreira is 17-4, and despite having a significant reach advantage, he’s the less physical fighter.

The Brazilian scored an incredible win over Anthony Pettis in 2020, but he has since lost to Beneil Dariush by decision and Gregor Gillespe by knockout.

Betting online markets have Gamrot at -190, which is well worth adding to your UFC Fight Night selections.

Pick: Mateusz Gamrot -190

Raphael Assuncao vs Ricky Simon

Ricky Simon is always favored to win and that’s the case against Raphael Assuncao.

The 29-year-old Oregon native scored a gritty three-round decision win over Brian Kelleher at UFC 258. Kelleher had been making his way up the featherweight rankings, so it was a statement victory.

Simon is having his third fight this year, so he’s fit and ready to add Assuncao to his list of wins.

Assuncao has been in the UFC since 2011 and amassed 27 wins. He has fought only once since 2019, which was a knockout loss to Cody Garbrandt.

He hasn’t won since beating Rob Font in 2018 and we don’t think he’s fighting well enough to beat Simon, who is one of the UFC best bets of the night.

Pick: Ricky Simon -275

Amanda Lemos vs Angela Hill

Amanda Lemos is 10-1-1 and one of the shortest favorites on the Fight Night card.

The strawweight has handled her last last two opponents with first-round knockouts, which is an impressive statistic for this division.

She knocked out Livia Renata Souza within four minutes in March before sending Montserrat Ruiz packing in just 35 seconds in July.

She is making her way up the rankings and it’s only a matter of time before she gets a title fight.

“My game has evolved a lot, both my striking and my grappling,” Lemos told UFC.com. “I still haven’t been able to show how much I’ve evolved in grappling and jiu-jitsu. No one knows what to expect from Amanda on the ground and they will be surprised.”

Angela Hill is 13-10 and unlikely to get in her way, especially after losing to Tecia Torres at UFC 265. She’s a step below Lemos, who should end the fight before the final bell.

Bettors get +180 for under 2½ rounds, and that’s the best value.