Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green meet in the UFC 291 main card in a battle of aging fan favorites. Had this taken place four years ago, the UFC lines would greatly favor Ferguson. As it stands, both are on their last legs and in Ferguson’s case, close to retirement. Thus, the former interim champion is a moderate underdog. But can Green be trusted at his odds?
Green Fights One Way
With 21 UFC fights under his belt, the book is out on how Green likes to fight: defensively. Not unlike the Diaz brothers, Green fights with his hands low to bait his opponents to punching him. Then, he counter-attacks with his quick hands and will typically piece up even the best strikers. Unfortunately, he’s not that great when it’s his time to attack.
Green is winless in three straight fights partly because his opponent did not fall for his antics. Drew Dober let him go first and finished him. Islam Makhachev made short work of him. And Rafael Fiziev also out-pointed him with a similar tactic. Overall, Green only has one win against a UFC fighter currently on the roster in the last three years.
But against Ferguson, Green may be worth betting online simply because of how washed up his opponent is. Green could counter-punch Ferguson and light him up or he could be the aggressor and do the same. Ferguson has next-to-no striking defense and with how much slower he is, he could be a sitting duck for Green.
The Legend of Ferguson Comes to a Close
Once upon a time, UFC fans could tell the story of “El Cucuy.” The man once undefeated for over six years and won 12 straight UFC fights. Ferguson was not just a fun fighter to cheer for, he consistently delivered as a UFC pick. But now, the sun comes down on Ferguson as he could be on his last fight.
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) July 25, 2023
Ferguson has lost five straight fights and he’s looked more miserable with each one. Nate Diaz submitted him in a fight that looked like it was being fought by geriatric fighters. Prior to that, Michael Chandler kicked the soul out of him. And just recently, he got involved in a DUI and a car accident.
Indeed, Ferguson keeps making the wrong kind of UFC news. And even a potential Hall of Famer like him will not be kept around the company if he can’t get it going. It’s hard to responsibly suggest betting on Ferguson unless he can somehow turn back the clock. Don’t hold your breath.
Ferguson vs Green Head-to-Head
Ferguson will, at least, have a five-inch reach advantage over Green. Both have a lot of similarities otherwise. They are right-handed (orthodox) strikers and have fought in exactly 21 UFC fights each.
Ferguson vs Green Fight Information
- Fighters: Ferguson (25-8-0) vs Green (29-14-1)
- Location: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
- Day/Time: Saturday, July 29, 11 p.m. ET
- Ferguson vs Green Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
Ferguson vs Green Betting Lines
|Tony Ferguson||+300||0 2½ -140|
|Bobby Green||-400||U 2½+110|
The odds in this chart are posted on the time of publication of the article. They are subject to change without previous notice.
Ferguson vs Green Picks and Prediction
The sportsbook has stacked the Las Vegas odds against Ferguson here. It’s a prohibitive line on Green as few will want to bet on the veteran even with Ferguson’s shopworn state. Instead, the best value here is in the totals going over. Ferguson and Green land over five significant strikes per minute. But this could be a slow-paced fight.
Green will want to Ferguson to strike first. And Ferguson, being much slower than he used to be, will bide his time. This fight could resemble the Ferguson-Diaz fight last year. But it’s a three-round fight and it is likely to go to a decision in favor of Green.
Green is listed at -400 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Green, you have a chance to win $25. Ferguson +300, offering a chance to win $300 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Green an 80.00% chance to win, with Ferguson at 25.00%.