Fili Edging Favoritism
Andre Fili is the narrow favorite to beat Bill Algeo at UFC Fight Night on Saturday night in what’s expected to be a close battle.
The featherweights are at a pivotal stage of their career and a win in Las Vegas gets them closer to a big fight.
UFC odds have Fili at -130 to bounce back from a costly defeat.
Fili Overdue for Victory
It has been since mid-2020 since Fili has won a UFC fight, so he’s needing a victory to stay relevant.
The 32-year-old American defeated Charles Jourdain before losing to Bryce Mitchell in 2020 and Joanderson Brito in May.
His most recent defeat was a concerning result. He was knocked out after 41 seconds and that’s not easy to bounce back from. Fili needs to put that loss in the back of his mind against Algeo, but UFC betting markets are confident.
He’s the -130 favorite and it could start as a pick’em, but the formula is simple for Fili.
“My whole plan this year is to win fights, get tattooed, travel and repeat,” Fili told MMA Junkie.
“Like, I’m gonna win a fight, I’m gonna go get tattooed, and I’m gonna travel somewhere new, and then I’m gonna get my (butt) back to training. Then repeat the process. That’s my goal, and the timing was perfect.
“I’m gonna win this fight this week here in September, and then I’ll win again in December, and I’ll just keep the train rolling. I really want to be active. … I’m excited, I’m happy. Just trying to keep things rolling.”
Algeo on the Hunt
We’re surprised Algeo is the underdog with the sportsbook given his recent form against strong opponents.
The 33-year-old scored a second-round knockout win over Herbert Burns, which followed a decision win over Brito, who knocked out Fili.
His form stacks up beautifully as the even-money underdog, so we expect most of the money to come for the underdog on fight night.
He believes Fili has a weaker chin than he used to have.
“I got experience too, there’s no difference,” Algeo said. “Yeah, he’s fought higher-level competition for a little bit longer, but that also shows in his chin, to be honest with you. It’s deteriorating in my opinion.”
We think bettors with cotton onto his impressive recent form and back him into favoritism.
Fili vs Algeo Head-to-Head
It’s the first fight between Fili vs Algeo.
Fili vs Algeo Fight Information
- Game: Fili (21-9) vs Algeo (16-6)
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Day/Time: Saturday, Sept. 17, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Fili vs Algeo Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Fili vs Algeo Betting Lines
Fili vs Algeo Prediction
There is excellent value with Algeo and we think betting online markets have the odds the wrong way.
We would price Algeo as the favorite, so we’re snapping up the even price before it moves.
He’s an excellent fighter riding a winning streak and that’s tough to overlook in an evenly priced fight.