Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot meet in the small octagon in a bid to become a title contender again. Both suffered losses in critical matchups, but they’ve still got plenty left in the tank as elite fighters in their prime. The UFC Fight Night betting odds slightly favor Fiziev (-155), the striker, against Gamrot (+125) the grappler. There are props worth betting on either side. But the best picks are with the underdog.
Good Guys, Better Chins
Both Fiziev and Gamrot are two of the easier-going guys in the UFC despite their aggressive fighting styles. They can afford it because they have two of the best chins. Fiziev’s only knockout loss came via a spinning back kick over four years ago. He went three hard rounds with Justin Gaethje and lived.
Gamrot, on the other hand, ate a hellish punch from Beneil Dariush but got up and walked it off. On top of that, he has cardio for days and has been likened to a bigger version of Merab Dvalishvili. It would take more than a punch or two to put him out.
It’s one of the best UFC bets for Fiziev and Gamrot go all five rounds.
— danawhite (@danawhite) September 18, 2023
UFC Pick: Fight To Go The Distance (-105)
Gamrot Can Outlast Fiziev
The betting odds for UFC are prone to recency bias. Since Gamrot got humbled by Dariush, he’s the underdog against Fiziev. He also had some issues against Jalin Turner and had to eke out a split decision. Fiziev also lost. But his opponent, Gaethje, went on to knock out Dustin Poirier so that loss has aged better. However, Gamrot’s prolific wrestling remains his key to victory here.
Gamrot only has a 31% takedown accuracy. He went 4-of-12 against Turner and 4-of-19 against Dariush. But the fact he can keep spamming takedowns is what’s impressive. It’s also how he’ll stay in the fight as keeping a dangerous striker defending will be to his benefit.
Fiziev has an impressive 90% takedown defense. He stuffed all but two of Rafael dos Anjos’s 16 attempts. But had he not knocked out the old Brazilian, he may have lost that fight. The switch striker was spending a lot of time defending takedowns. And ‘“RDA”’ is past his prime with three KO losses in the division.
Defending against Gamrot is a different story. The Pole will not tire even in the championship rounds. Fiziev will need to finish Gamrot early. A bet online on him to do it in Rounds 1 or 2 is at +500 and +650, respectively. Either could be worth using as a hedge for Gamrot backers.
But we’ll put faith that the “Gamer” can withstand Fiziev’s early onslaught. It will be a close call as Fiziev can seriously hurt Gamrot early in the fight. But the longer this goes, the more it favors the underdog. So another prop bet on this UFC fight is for Gamrot to win on the scorecards.
UFC Fight Night Main Event Info
• Records: Rafael Fiziev (12-2-0), Mateusz Gamrot (22-2-0)
• Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 23, 8:50 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
• Fiziev vs Gamrot Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass