Catch an early glimpse of the UFC’s future: led by Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot in the main event, UFC on ESPN 38’s main card features the promotion’s top prospects. The UFC betting lines are primarily in favor of these prospects as most of them could walk away being one step closer to a title shot.
- Date: Saturday, June 25th, 10 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC APEX
- Watch on: UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night Main Card Picks
Arman Tsarukyan (-300) vs Mateusz Gamrot (+220)
- Round Totals: Over 4½ (-125), Under 4½ (-105)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Lightweight (155 lbs) (5 Rounds, Main Event)
We picked Tsarukyan to edge Gamrot here but his line is getting too wide. This should still be a competitive fight with both prospects having their moments. Tsarukyan (18-2-0) is just a more patient and should be able to outwork Gamrot (20-1-0). The best UFC bet here might be for this one to go over 4½ rounds at these odds as both fighters are incredibly tough.
Pick: Over 4½ (-125)
Neil Magny (+325) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (-450)
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (+115), Under 2½ (-145)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Welterweight (170 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Another highly touted prospect, Shavkat Rakhmonov looks to make a statement as one-half of the co-main event. But can he pass the Neil Magny test? The online sportsbook says “yes!” in an emphatic fashion as he is the second-largest favorite on the main card.
Rakhmonov (15-0-0) has destroyed his competition and Magny (26-8-0) is a visible step up. The American is a top-10 fighter at his best and only loses to top-five contenders. He’s also bigger than Rakhmonov with a three-inch reach advantage. That won’t matter as the Kazakh is stronger and will exploit Magny’s wrestling weakness. Bank on him to finish within two rounds.
Pick: Under 2½ (-145)
Josh Parisian (-105) vs Alan Baudot (-125)
- Round Totals: Over 1½ (-190), Under 1½ (+155)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Heavyweight (265 lbs) (3 Rounds)
The only reason Alan Baudot is on a featured bout is that he is training partners with Ciryl Gane. But Baudot (8-3-0) is not great anywhere. He isn’t a finisher hence why the totals are juiced to the “over” here. Josh Parisian is worse and could be on the chopping block soon. Avoid this fight when betting online though if you have to, pick Baudot.
Pick: Alan Baudot -125
Thiago Moises (-260) vs Christos Giagos (+200)
- Round Totals: Over 2½ (-145), Under 2½ (-115)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Lightweight (155 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Thiago Moises and Christos Giagos were once top prospects in MMA. While they are not anymore, they still have time to make a run and become contenders. Moises (15-6-0) could out grapple Giagos (19-9-0) as it is expected. But Moises’ wrestling is overrated and Giagos is better everywhere else. He’s also been on a roll so at 2-1, it’s worth taking a dog shot here.
Pick: Christos Giagos +200
Umar Nurmagomedov (-900) vs Nate Maness (+550)
- Round Totals: Over 1½ (-155), Under 1½ (+125)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Bantamweight (135 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Umar Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite of the event. Part of this is because of his surname but also because his grappling is no joke. Nurmagomedov (14-0-0) should be able to maul Nate Maness. The line stinks, however. Maness (14-1-0) is a solid prospect and is a dangerous kickboxer. If he can keep this fight standing long enough, he could just shock Nurmagomedov.
Pick: Nate Maness +550
Chris Curtis (-130) vs Rodolfo Vieira (Ev)
- Round Totals: Over 1½ (+120), Under 1½ (-150)
- Weight Class (Rounds): Middleweight (185 lbs) (3 Rounds)
Chris Curtis is aptly nicknamed “action man” for his propensity to put on fun fights. He’s expected to starch Rodolfo Vieira, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace, here. However, Curtis’ (28-8-0) finishing ability is overstated and this one could be a more drawn-out fight than the odds indicate. For that reason, bet the over.
Pick: Over 1½ (+120)