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Goff-Waters, Ferrerira-Rebecki: Can’t-Miss UFC St. Louis Props

Another week of octagon goodness is just around the corner, and I’ve dove into the thirteen scheduled bouts for UFC St Louis to unpack the most noteworthy MMA props and the best UFC bets tonight.

The betting odds are live; my tape study is complete, so let’s not waste any more time and jump into my perfect proposition bets for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night live from the Show-Me State.

Goff-Waters, Ferrerira-Rebecki: Can't-Miss UFC St. Louis Props
Carlos Diego Ferreira | Steve Marcus/Getty Images/AFP

UFC St Louis Information

  • Date & Time: Saturday, May. 11, 2024 – 04:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
  • UFC Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass
  • Main Event Bout: Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento
  • Co-Main Event Bout: Joaquin Buckley vs Nursulton Ruziboev
  • Scheduled Fights: 13
  • Biggest UFC St Louis Betting Favorite: Mateusz Rebecki @ -500
  • Biggest UFC Betting Underdog: Diego Ferreira @ +350


Can Billy Goff Overcome Trey Waters’ Massive Frame?

Two bidding welterweight prospects will battle on the UFC St Louis preliminary as Trey Waters and Billy Goff look to extend their rankings in a talent-stacked 170lb division.

The betting public has shown love for Goff, and I’m not surprised. He debuted last August against Yusaka Kinoshita and made quick work of the Japanese prospect with a nasty body shot that led to a TKO stoppage on the ground.

Still, Goff is in an underdog position again, and several key pointers back it. First, Waters is huge and utilizes his reach incredibly well behind a piercing jab. Goff is completely outmatched in a kickboxing contest, which may force him to grapple. This, however, won’t bode well versus the huge frame of Waters, who’s proven time and time again that he won’t be bullied in clinched or cage grappling positions.

Here’s a look at some UFC 301 odds to consider!

Prop Bet 1: Trey Waters by KO or Submission (+115)

Goff’s most notable attribute has been his toughness. Although several of his past bouts were much lower level, he’s been losing on the scorecards and has banked on his ability to fight through adversity.

Unfortunately for him, said adversity won’t be enough this weekend. It’s indicative by the current total for this bout – Under 2 ½ rounds @ -200 odds – that it isn’t expected to go the distance, and it is Waters’s striking offensive that is most likely to end this fight inside the distance.

Goff’s heart is commendable, but we’ll rely on the skills this weekend. The grinding toughness isn’t good enough to match Waters, who’ll finish the fight via strikes or grab a submission on a beaten Goff in the later rounds.

Bet on UFC and secure the top UFC odds tonight!


  • Goff hasn’t reached round three in seven of his previous eight bouts
  • Waters has won by KO/TKO or submission in three of his previous four bouts



Old vs Not-so-Old: Ferreira’s Experience Meets Rebecki’s Vigor

Following a two-year layoff and a three-fight losing streak, 39-year-old Diego Ferreira returned to the octagon last summer and shocked the audience as he flatlined Michael Johnson. However, he looked incredibly slow, lethargic, and outmatched in that bout before the overhand right assisted him in victory.

After another year on the sidelines, Ferreira returns versus a well-rounded and dangerous Mateusz Rebecki. The latter is 31, holds a 3-0 promotional record, and has looked excellent during his UFC tenure thus far.

Prop Bet 2: Under 2 ½ Rounds (-170)

With incredible head movement, powerful strikes, and a wrestling game that’s handled Loik Radzhabov and the grappling of Nick Fiore effortlessly, Rebecki could be a problem at 155 pounds. Furthermore, watching Ferreria get pieced up by Johnson is a huge red flag, and coupled with the fact he’s 39, that’s why we’re looking at a Polish native as the biggest betting favorite at UFC St Louis.

Sure, UFC betting lines are overly juiced on the moneyline, but we’re focussing on the total. It’s currently set at 2 ½ rounds, and I honestly struggle to envision Ferreira surviving a striking onslaught for 15 minutes.

In contrast, should Rebecki attempt to grapple, he’ll be susceptible to Ferreira’s BJJ black belt, which can also help this under cash.


Take A Look At These Other 2 Boxing Special Articles

    • Ferreira hasn’t gone the distance in three consecutive UFC bouts.
    • Rebecki has gone the distance in just three of his 20 pro career MMA bouts.
    • Rebecki has won two consecutive UFC bouts by KO/TKO and submission.


Our Favorite UFC St Louis Proposition Wagers



Question of the Day

Is the Derrick Lewis KO-prop a good bet this weekend?

As the owner of more knockouts than any other fighter in UFC history, a Derrick Lewis knockout prop bet is always good for the taking.

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