Featherweight Prospects Start Main Card
Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain kicks off the UFC fight card at UFC 288 on Saturday, and it should be an exciting fight.
Jourdain is the current favorite at the sportsbook, but the Gracie name is the most famous in the MMA world.
There won’t be any title shots coming soon for the featherweights, but this is a great chance to climb the rankings.
Gracie Returns After Hiatus
UFC betting markets might have Gracie as the favorite to win, but he’s an expert submission artist who must be respected.
His last fight came in 2019 when losing to Cub Swanson by decision, and although having a four-year hiatus is never a good thing, he only needs to get a hold of Jourdain on the ground to win.
His first five fights all ended with a submission win, including submitting Alex Caceres with a rear-naked choke in the first round.
Caceres isn’t an easy fighter to submit, but our biggest concern is the reason behind his break, though Gracie has been training well to prepare.
“I was gonna fight right before they shut the NBA down, and they shut my gym down,” Gracie said.
“I had to move to a different state and restart my life somewhere else, but now I’m back. I was just waiting for my ducks to all get in line.”
Sport betting lines have a generous price for Gracie, who is the son of Rickson Gracie and grandson of Helio Gracie. He knows how to submit fighters, so if he gets his hands on Jourdain, it could be all over.
Deep Thoughts by Kron Gracie… #UFC288 pic.twitter.com/X98PbdNNfW
— Kyle Anthony’s UFC Betting (@KyleAnthonyUFC) May 3, 2023
Jourdain a False Favorite?
UFC 288 odds have Jourdain favored despite losing his last two fights, so there could be some trepidation with bettors.
If he’s unable to get close to Gracie, UFC live betting markets will have his odds much longer after the first round.
The 27-year-old lost to Shane Burgos in July before losing by decision to Nathaniel Wood in September. They are tough opponents, so credit goes to the Canadian for taking the fights, but they go down as losses.
We feel as though whenever Jourdain has a chance to win a big fight, he comes unstuck. He has been mocking Gracie throughout the week, but he could have egg over his face on Saturday.
We’re not surprised that online gambling odds have him as the favorite, but we would have priced him around -130. He needs to prove that he can beat guys like Gracie, and having been submitted by Julian Erosa, that’s not a good sign.
He most likely needs a knockout, so it’s a battle of styles.
Gracie vs Jourdain Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between Gracie vs Jourdain.
Gracie vs Jourdain Fight Information
- Fight: Gracie (5-1) vs. Jourdain (13-6-1)
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
- Day/Time: Saturday, May 6, 10 p.m. ET
- Gracie vs Jourdain Live stream: UFC Fight Pass
Gracie vs Jourdain Betting Lines
Gracie vs Jourdain Picks & Prediction
We don’t see much value with Jourdain, so we’re happy to take the risk with Gracie at the better odds.
If he gets the fight to the ground, it could be all over quickly. Therefore, take the outsider to cause an upset to kick off the main card.
The Charles Jourdain are listed at -170 in our Vegas UFC lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Charles Jourdain, you have a chance to win $59. The Kron Gracie are +140, offering a chance to win $140 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Charles Jourdain a 62.96% chance to win, with Kron Gracie at 41.67%.