There is excellent value available for bettors on the UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori card on Saturday, including the Grant Dawson vs Rick Glenn fight.
That bout headlines the four-leg parlay, which also includes the Alex Caceres vs Choi Choi, Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant and Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards fights.
UFC betting odds are available for every fight.
Dawson vs Glenn
Bookmakers have Dawson at -375 to win the fight and we think he’ll be too good for Glenn.
The 17-1 fighter has a significant reach advantage over Glenn, and his knockout win over Leonardo Santos is an excellent form guide.
Being able to knock someone out with one second on the clock shows that he never gives up. He fights to the final bell, which is an attribute not possessed by every fighter.
The 27-year-old has beaten some experienced fighters since arriving in the UFC, and although Glenn is no slouch, he is up against it. Grant was hoping to fight Diego Ferreira, who pulled out, but he plans to beat whoever is put in front of him.
“There are not a lot of guys in the division who will make me change how I fight,” Dawson told BJPenn.com. “I’m going to get in his face, take him down, and beat him up for 15 minutes or until he gives up. He is tough, I think he’s durable but I’m better everywhere.”
Glenn scored a knockout in 37 seconds against Joaquim Silva, so he’s explosive. It was his first fight in three years after losing in The Ultimate Final Finale in 2018, so what a way to return.
However, he could struggle to replicate that effort. The second fight after a break is always harder, so we like Dawson to end this fight via a knockout. The -375 is too short for our liking, so take Dawson at +150 to end the fight before it goes to the judges.
Pick: Grant Dawson by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+150)
Clark vs Edwards
A close fight is expected between Clark and Edwards, but the sportsbook has Clark at -150 to score her 11th win.
The 33-year-old has the slight experience edge over Edwards, and despite having a shorter reach, she could be too classy for her opponent.
She got the better of Sarah Alpar last year with a third-round knockout, and although only three of her MMA wins have come via knockout, she has faced some tough customers.
Edwards is 10-3, and the younger fighter at 26. She needs to get her career back on track after losing to Karol Rosa via decision in February. It was a tough loss to take, and we’re not sure she has what it takes to beat someone like Clark.
The sportsbook looks to have framed the market correctly, so include Clark at -150 to your UFC Fight Night parlay.
Pick: Jessica-Rose Clark -150
Caceres vs Choi
Momentum is with Choi, who scored a brilliant knockout win over Julian Erosa in June.
The South Korean fighter improved to 10-3, and he is the firm betting favorite against Caceres, who has suffered 12 losses in his career.
We’re not knocking Caceres, because he also has 18 wins on his record, but the ceiling looks higher for the younger fighter.
Caceres scored a three-round decision win over Kevin Croom in February, but we weren’t overly impressed with the performance. Bookmakers agree, and the +220 underdog should be held in check against Choi.
We are looking for more value than -300, so we’re happy to take Choi at +240 to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission. It’s a fair line, and it should add value to the parlay.
Pick: Choi by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+240)
Trinaldo vs Grant
We are surprised to see Grant at even money to win against Trinaldo.
The 11-3 fighter scored a good win over Stefan Sekulic in April at UFC 261, and that should have him in good order against 43-year-old Trinaldo.
The Brazilian is 26-8 following a loss to Muslim Salikhov, but he looked good prior when beating Jai Herbert with a third-round knockout.
Gabe Green is no longer scheduled to fight on October 23d. Stepping in on short notice is Francisco Trinaldo. Trinaldo will take on Dwight Grant in the Welterweight division. #UFCVegas41
— MMA DNA (@MMADNANL) September 23, 2021
It should be a close fight, but we expected betting online markets to side with Grant. Therefore, we’re happy to take the even-money odds and include Grant to kick-start our parlay.