Bettors get a wealth of exotic betting markets for Fight Night on Saturday, especially in the method of victory and total rounds markets.
We have scoured ufc betting odds to find the best value for Marina Rodriguez vs Mackenzie Dern and Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau.
The Phil Hawes-Deron Winn bout is off.
Rodriguez vs Dern
There has been steady money at the sportsbook for Dern at -175, but there is better value in betting totals markets.
The five-round fight isn’t expected to go the distance, with that option paying -225. However, we think bookmakers have the total rounds line in favor of bettors.
It’s currently set at 2½, with the under being backed into -140. We think Rodriguez is good enough to last for three rounds, and many women’s fights go the distance.
Rodriguez went five rounds against the powerful and dangerous Michelle Waterson. Dern is a submission threat with three submission victories in her last four fights, and all four came in the first round, but she was taken the distance against Virna Jandiroba.
With it being a main event fight, they could come out timid and get going in the latter rounds. We are confident over 2½ is the right pick, so long as Rodriguez keeps her distance and plays it smart.
Pick: Over 2½ (+110)
Nicolau vs Elliott
Bettors get value odds with Tim Elliott, who is paying +160 to beat Nicolau.
Our UFC best bets are confident in the experienced Elliott producing the upset, and although +160 is a generous price, we’re hunting for bigger odds.
It’s always a risk placing a wager on round betting markets, but the payoffs are huge. Elliott is paying +1200 to win in Round One, +1600 in Round Two, and +2500 in Round Three.
We think Elliott could come out headhunting and score a first round knockout, which would get the main card off to a fantastic start.
— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) October 7, 2021
We wouldn’t include this option in a UFC parlay, simply because the odds are so high. However, the +1200 odds are worth taking as a single wager.
“I have a whole new open level of striking and things are starting to come around again,” Elliott said.
“I’m enjoying the sport more now than I ever have. I used to just train so hard all the time that it was hard to get through the day. Now, it is the easiest time I’ve ever had fighting and it’s the most fun I’ve ever had, and I’m not going anywhere anytime soon,”
We’re happy to take the risk with this option, given the odds available.